Alibaba: Is The Reward Worth The Risk?

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Alibaba: Is The Reward Worth The Risk?

seekingalpha2021-05-18

SummaryBABA is one of the world's great e-commerce and tech giants.The business continues to post strong growth numbers and looks deeply undervalued.That said, the company has been plagued by negative...

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ProsPaddles
·2021-05-18
Put the risks aside, baba is like amazon in the earlier days! The stock price will go to the moon eventually!
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orrox
·2021-05-18
Comments pls
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377tkr
·2021-05-18
Pls comment. Thanks
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- orrox:
  ok
  2021-05-18
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Alvinlsm
·2021-05-18
Pls like and comment
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Tencent2040
·2021-05-18
Either you see it happens or be part of it.
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- KGTAN:
  Why not be part of it
  2021-05-18
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ElyneT
·2021-05-18
Buy on the dips!!
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- Alvinlsm:
  Sure
  2021-05-18
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- KGTAN:
  Yeah Agreed
  2021-05-18
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xuanlin
·2021-05-18
Pls comment
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- RuyiOngReplying toLeeWan:
  thanks
  2021-05-18
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- JL45:
  Reply plS
  2021-05-18
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- RuyiOng:
  ok
  2021-05-18
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xuanlin
·2021-05-18
Pls comment
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- Faithc:
  like n comment. pls l&c too
  2021-05-18
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chiew
·2021-05-18
???
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JTLim
·2021-05-18
Yes worth the risk.
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- Alvinlsm:
  Of course
  2021-05-18
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Over the past two-plus decades, the company has grown at a rapid pace into an ecommerce juggernaut that is a fixture in the Chinese consumer economy, and burgeoning tech investments that include fintech, cloud computing, media, and other AI-powered ventures. Is the stock a buy, hold, or sell right now? Let's take a closer look at the business to find out.Strong Moat-Powered GrowthBABA continues to post strong growth numbers as its competitive advantages continue to grow stronger.The company grew revenues in its most recent quarter by an incredible 64% year-over-year (40% organic growth) and posted strong guidance for FY2022. Furthermore, BABA appears poised to generate mid-to-high teens revenue growth over the next several years as its growth is broad-based and being driven by several organic factors including user growth (which is especially important as this strengthens their network effect moat), increased spending per customer (making their existing network more valuable), and rising online consumption in BABA's markets (which is good news for BABA since it owns a very strong digital presence).The reason we are confident that BABA will continue to capture a growing share of China's rising middle class and e-commerce habits is that the company's internet services already touch the vast majority of online users in China. Given that BABA's marketplace is already so large, it essentially forces merchants and buyers into their ecosystem if they wish to succeed, which in turn gives BABA significant pricing power. Additionally, with so much exposure to China's online habits, BABA has an enormous data advantage over its competition which, in an age where A.I.-powered advertising algorithms are increasingly determining winners and losers in online commerce, gives it a decisive edge.Looking longer term, BABA's determination to expand as a major player outside of China will likely give it enormous additional avenues of growth where it should be fairly well-positioned to compete as it uses its massive data bank from the Chinese market to give it a running start in foreign markets. That said, cultural and shopping tastes do differ across the globe, so BABA will still have to adapt and learn new approaches to gain market share in foreign markets, making these growth ambitions a bit more uncertain than their existing China business. One of the ways that China has tried to get around this hurdle is by acquiring stakes in foreign ecommerce businesses and then using their in-house expertise to improve the business in that market. An example of this is their controlling stake in Lazada, which operates in Southeast Asian economies like Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines.BABA also owns its own logistics business, enabling it to exercise greater control over its product supply chain and improve margins while its cloud business - AliCloud - is another strong growth and free cash flow generating business that will grow as China's economy becomes increasingly digitized as part of the Chinese Government's strong drive to make the country A.I. focused.Fortress Balance SheetBABA also boasts a stellar balance sheet, as indicated by its A+ credit rating from S&P. The company's latest quarterly filing indicated that cash and short term investments on the balance sheet had swelled to an incredible $73.8 billion. With long-term debt of just $20.7 billion, BABA has an incredibly conservative balance sheet. Their EBITDA/Interest coverage ratio is also very strong at 30x.With so much cash on hand, strong access to capital via their A+ credit rating and a wide-moat business model, BABA is in a great position to buy back shares and/or invest aggressively to further grow and strengthen the business and position itself for long-term success.Dirt-Cheap ValuationDespite its incredible business and balance sheet strength, interest rates being near all-time lows, and stock indexes near all-time highs, BABA is trading at a remarkable discount, down significantly from all-time highs reached last fall:Data by YChartsThe stock looks even cheaper when viewed on a price-to-earnings basis:Data by YChartsBy way of comparison, BABA's nearest peer in the U.S. would be considered Amazon (AMZN) and it trades at 61.33 times earnings, which many consider to be reasonable, if not cheap:Data by YChartsAs a result, BABA is only trading at 40% of AMZN's valuation despite possessing a business model that is comparable in strength and operating in an economy that is growing at a much faster rate than AMZN is.Furthermore, BABA's forward price-to-earnings ratio is much cheaper at a mere 19.5. Even that might be understating how cheap they truly are, however, as their massive cash pile could easily be deployed to buy back shares and/or invest in new cash flowing businesses that would drive the P/E ratio even lower.Clearly, we aren't alone in our thinking that BABA looks dirt cheap: Charlie Munger's Daily Journal recently added it to their high-conviction portfolio. Not only that, but they clearly have enormous conviction in the company as it takes up nearly 20% of their portfolio, making it their third-largest holding.Significant RisksThat said, while Mr. Market does grossly misprice stocks all the time, he is not stupid and always has a good reason for discounting the stocks that he does even if he ends up being proven wrong. In the case of BABA, these reasons include:BABA is not unchallenged in its Chinese e-commerce growth. Rising challenges from major competitors like JD.com (JD) and Pinduoduo (PDD) already rival BABA's marketplace in many respects. For example, PDD's active buyers in 2020 exceeded BABA's by 9 million, implying that - at least by some metrics - BABA's network advantage is not unassailable.Founder Jack Ma has recently run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party due to some less-than supportive comments about its regulatory practices. In addition to the negative press, his financial interests have also paid the price, beginning with Ant Financial's IPO gettingcancelled by regulatorsand the company as a whole getting examined for it leveraging its enormous size and data advantage to engage in anti-competitive practices. The CCP appears bent on making an example of Jack Ma and, while recently announced anti-trust penalties of $2.75 billion are a mere slap on the wrist when compared with BABA's massive business size and cash pile, it may not be the end of the government's meddling with BABA.Adding on to this, as the 2017 documentary film The China Hustle pointed out, Chinese balance sheets are not subject to the same scrutiny and audit measures as U.S. companies. As a result, it is possible that BABA is overstating its cash pile and/or its growth numbers. While we know enough to be assured of the fact that BABA is indeed an ecommerce and tech giant in China and not a fake company like many of those portrayed in the aforementioned film, it is still quite possible that BABA is not as cheap as it appears on paper. As fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Julian Lin pointed out in his insightful piece:The stock is obviously undervalued. Yet does the company itself think so? Typically when a stock is so undervalued, the company would aggressively repurchase its own stock, especially when it generates as much free cash flow as BABA does. Yet BABA has not meaningfully repurchased shares ... The lack of action should not be ignored ... BABA management might not think its stock is undervalued, which would arguably be a red flag considering the stock is so obviously undervalued to the rest of Wall Street.Last, but not least, China is facing an impending demographic crisis: its decades-long and recently abandoned \"One Child\" policy has now pushed its population into what appears to be decline along with a lopsided shifting of the population to where the working age Chinese face an unsustainable burden of supporting elderly retired people. The full impacts of this are unknown, but they do not bode well for the medium-to-long-term of the Chinese economy, nor for political stability in the country.Investor TakeawayWith all that said, BABA seems to be a very confusing stock: on one hand, it appears to be a slam dunk strong buy with all the blocks checked: wide moat and well-diversified business model, strong growth momentum and lengthy growth runway, fortress balance sheet, very attractive valuation, and the endorsement of one of history's greatest investors in Charlie Munger.On the other hand, Chinese regulators' hands are all over this company right now and we are unsure if there are any more major blows headed BABA's way. Furthermore, its founder has fallen from grace in Chinese society just as e-commerce competition is increasing in the country. Meanwhile, management is not exactly voicing significant confidence in the stock by failing to buy back meaningful sums of shares and geopolitical risks from China's emerging demographic crisis and increasingly bellicose rhetoric and collision course with the U.S. and its Asia-Pacific allies only heighten the investment risks here.As a result, we view the stock as a speculative buy as Charlie Munger's investment here helps to allay some of our concerns. That said, we feel uncomfortable holding the stock ourselves given that the risks are of a nature that we cannot justify or fully quantify. For investors who do feel comfortable with them, there is a high probability that BABA presents very attractive risk-adjusted return potential here and, barring a major war or economic crisis in China emerging in the near future, should deliver strong returns relative to the broader U.S. stock indexes as current prices.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":194394143,"gmtCreate":1621340951082,"gmtModify":1704356049555,"author":{"id":"3571919991986405","authorId":"3571919991986405","name":"ProsPaddles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5743775abc150fab8749a749f0511b63","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571919991986405","idStr":"3571919991986405"},"htmlText":"Put the risks aside, baba is like amazon in the earlier days! The stock price will go to the moon eventually!","listText":"Put the risks aside, baba is like amazon in the earlier days! The stock price will go to the moon eventually!","text":"Put the risks aside, baba is like amazon in the earlier days! The stock price will go to the moon eventually!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194394143","repostId":1165590108,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194094696,"gmtCreate":1621324119615,"gmtModify":1704355777972,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"htmlText":"Comments pls","listText":"Comments pls","text":"Comments pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194094696","repostId":1165590108,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194091925,"gmtCreate":1621323712867,"gmtModify":1704355770454,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"htmlText":"Pls comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls comment. Thanks","text":"Pls comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194091925","repostId":1165590108,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4365003,"gmtCreate":1621324130286,"gmtModify":1680789459890,"authorId":3566183313072109,"author":{"id":3566183313072109,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorId":3566183313072109,"name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194091925,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194008518,"gmtCreate":1621322596734,"gmtModify":1704355760266,"author":{"id":"3555205227101964","authorId":"3555205227101964","name":"Alvinlsm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcf5a2c527c5396558784b0c1c3cd9eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3555205227101964","idStr":"3555205227101964"},"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194008518","repostId":1165590108,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194001472,"gmtCreate":1621322528696,"gmtModify":1704355758806,"author":{"id":"3582007616276412","authorId":"3582007616276412","name":"Tencent2040","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d9f0b2f501bd439ef3d417e80a2b4cb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582007616276412","idStr":"3582007616276412"},"htmlText":"Either you see it happens or be part of it.&nbsp;","listText":"Either you see it happens or be part of it.&nbsp;","text":"Either you see it happens or be part of it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194001472","repostId":1165590108,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4364945,"gmtCreate":1621323648220,"gmtModify":1680789448439,"authorId":3557387457559641,"author":{"id":3557387457559641,"idStr":"3557387457559641","authorId":3557387457559641,"name":"KGTAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6bd513e93f61e85855ee80f50ba7807","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194001472,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Why not be part of it","text":"Why not be part of it","html":"Why not be part of it"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194003054,"gmtCreate":1621322339878,"gmtModify":1704355756383,"author":{"id":"3581676442215461","authorId":"3581676442215461","name":"ElyneT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa369c8ae0fad2f10c4ccd88ea307d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581676442215461","idStr":"3581676442215461"},"htmlText":"Buy on the dips!!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy on the dips!!&nbsp;","text":"Buy on the dips!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194003054","repostId":1165590108,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4364820,"gmtCreate":1621322610559,"gmtModify":1680789451639,"authorId":3555205227101964,"author":{"id":3555205227101964,"idStr":"3555205227101964","authorId":3555205227101964,"name":"Alvinlsm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcf5a2c527c5396558784b0c1c3cd9eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194003054,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Sure","text":"Sure","html":"Sure"},{"id":4364948,"gmtCreate":1621323664876,"gmtModify":1680789446313,"authorId":3557387457559641,"author":{"id":3557387457559641,"idStr":"3557387457559641","authorId":3557387457559641,"name":"KGTAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6bd513e93f61e85855ee80f50ba7807","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194003054,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yeah Agreed","text":"Yeah Agreed","html":"Yeah Agreed"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":195775794,"gmtCreate":1621322003518,"gmtModify":1704355750680,"author":{"id":"3575152506937716","authorId":"3575152506937716","name":"xuanlin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575152506937716","idStr":"3575152506937716"},"htmlText":"Pls comment","listText":"Pls comment","text":"Pls 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