Global investors are closely monitoring developments in Iran. This afternoon, US stock futures experienced another sharp decline. As of 13:30, Nasdaq futures fell 0.43%, while Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures dropped 0.37% and 0.40%, respectively. In the Asia-Pacific region, China's Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, and ChiNext indices all declined nearly 1%. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.72%, after earlier rising nearly 0.90%. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 2.93%, while Pakistan's Karachi Index and Thailand's SET Index declined 0.77% and 0.69%, respectively.
Precious metals also saw significant declines. COMEX gold futures fell 1.41%, and silver futures dropped 2.45%. Spot gold and silver decreased by 0.85% and 1.36%, respectively. Cryptocurrencies followed the downward trend, with Bitcoin and Ethereum falling over 1%, and Solana declining more than 3%.
Recent reports indicate that on the 26th, the Israeli Defense Forces announced a series of large-scale strikes against infrastructure in Isfahan, Iran. The same day, Lebanon's Hezbollah claimed it attacked Israeli Defense Ministry headquarters using multiple missiles. Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump reportedly expressed his desire to quickly end the conflict. According to sources, Trump told advisors he wants to conclude hostilities "within weeks," stating the war interferes with his other priorities.
The US Central Command stated that the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier continues flight operations against Iranian military targets while navigating regional waters. Earlier, Iranian military officials claimed their navy fired missiles toward the USS Lincoln, "forcing it to change position." Concurrently, Iran is seeking to impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Iranian parliamentary official stated they are drafting legislation to legally assert Iran's sovereignty over the strait while generating national revenue through transit fees.
Wall Street institutions are raising their forecasts for a US economic recession, citing the Iran conflict and inflation risks. EY-Parthenon's chief economist Gregory Daco noted that downside risks have significantly increased, currently estimating a 40% probability of US recession. He warned that prolonged or intensified conflict could rapidly elevate these odds. Daco emphasized that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and risks to oil production suggest persistent inflationary pressures beyond temporary energy price spikes.
Other financial firms are similarly adjusting their outlooks. Moody's Analytics now places the 12-month US recession probability at 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs raised its estimate to 30%. Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius noted that upward revisions to oil and gas price forecasts could increase global inflation by approximately 1% and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4%. Hatzius added that energy price shocks coincide with tighter financial conditions and reduced fiscal stimulus, expecting below-trend growth and rising unemployment.
Market participants on prediction platform Polymarket have increased their bets on a US recession before 2026 from 23% to 35% since late February. Concerns about rising oil and gas prices driving short-term inflation have intensified significantly. Market expectations have shifted dramatically, with traders now anticipating potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, reversing previous expectations of cuts. Similar reversals are seen in European markets, where interest rate futures now price in multiple rate hikes by the ECB and Bank of England.
