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The Sky Is Falling for Netflix

CNN Business2022-01-24

New York (CNN Business) - Just like its comedy film "Don't Look Up," the sky may be falling for Netflix.

Netflix's stock has tumbled 41% from the all-time high it hit just two months ago. It's gaining subscribers at a painfully slow pace. Competition is heating up.

The company's answer to all that: It just raised prices on North American customers.

After surging to the top of the streaming mountain, Netflix is struggling to climb higher as its rivals gain more ground.

"It looks like they're hitting maturity," Michael Nathanson, a media analyst at MoffettNathanson, told CNN Business. "They keep raising their prices, and now in order to maintain a level of subscribers they have, they continually add more and more new content, and content is inherently a hard business to predict with peaks and valleys."

Don't look up

"Don't Look Up" was a buzzy hit for Netflix, but subscribers were still sluggish.

It wasn't that long ago that Netflix was a stock darling, but those days now feel like eons ago. The company's stock peaked just south of $700 in November, but has since dropped to around $400 on Friday.

Netflix ended 2021 with 221.8 million subscribers. That's significantly more than others in the streaming marketplace, including Disney, one of its closest competitors. Disney had 118.1 million subscribers as of October, and it grew subscriptions 60% between October 2020 and October 2021. During that same period, Netflix grew just 9%.

Disney hasn't yet reported its financial results for the last three months of 2021. But Netflix's growth slowed even further in the fourth quarter to just 8%. (And Disney's growth last quarter spooked Wall Street too.)

Netflix is struggling to find more people to sign up in the markets it has been playing in the longest — particularly the United States — noted Nathanson. The company is going to have to "start aggressively going after growth in developing markets," such as India and other Asian Pacific countries, to keep moving forward, he added.

The problem with relying exclusively on subscriptions for revenue is: after a while, you run out of people who haven't subscribed. That's bad news for Wall Street investors who are mostly concerned with companies' abilities to grow.

Zak Shaikh, vice president of programming at research-based media firm Magid, believes that Netflix's fall is more of "a Wall Street thing" rather than "something that reflects the business is in trouble."

"They still added subs, and they still have the same high usage and viewing metrics," he added. However, even Shaikh pointed out that in the long term, "Netflix(NFLX) will have to deal with the fact that you can't keep adding subscribers."

One way the company has tried to offset its slowing growth is by investing in other verticals,such as gaming. Another way is to raise prices, but that could prove difficult as fierce competition ramps up.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Comment24

  • angelo0908
    ·2022-01-24
    What
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  • gni
    ·2022-01-24
    What goes up...must come down! [Surprised] 
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  • alexloai64
    ·2022-01-24
    風險是站出來 利潤是跌出來的!
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  • DanViv
    ·2022-01-24
    Raising price to sustain revenue is a short term strategy 
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  • HH浩
    ·2022-01-24
    I still a netflix subscriber but not shareholder☺️
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  • Clng
    ·2022-01-24
    Slow in movie updates ..🥱
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  • koolgal
    ·2022-01-24
    The good news for Netflix is that the company is still the Number 1 online video streaming provider and profitable.  However it is facing intense competition from Disney as well.  As the author suggests Netflix needs to go into new business like gaming in order to grow.  Hope Netflix will continue to grow. 🤔
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  • Happy Bear
    ·2022-01-24
    Netflix ur movies sux. Pls improve it. Or else I'm cancelling my subscription too
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  • Theme
    ·2022-01-24
    Looks how news influences stock price! It reported memberships gain "painfully slow". It was never reported like this.
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  • Wafu
    ·2022-01-24
    Like
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  • CIG
    ·2022-01-24
    It's good, but still below the sky.
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  • mster
    ·2022-01-24
    What happen in a few years time when Netflix has entered all the countries in this world.All those who wanna sign up have done so. The company can’t still rely on subscription to report on earnings and growth right? 
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  • 丰人
    ·2022-01-24
    Like
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  • LuckyLee
    ·2022-01-24
    Like
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  • Kczx
    ·2022-01-24
    [Doubt] 
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  • ivy888
    ·2022-01-24
    Like 
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  • Dawang
    ·2022-01-24
    What goes Up, may eventually come down. Could possibly become cheaper.. 🥸
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  • Every international firm is going to gaming to find growth. Look at Microsoft deal for Activision blizzard. $Huya Inc.(HUYA)$once regularity fear abates, I believe Huya has a chance to recover. Until then, price pressure is on the downside not upside. But saving grace is the huge cash hoard that Huya has. Huya is going to squeeze $DouYu(DOYU)$douyu out of the business.As always, this should not be construed as any investment or trading advice 
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  • ZenInv
    ·2022-01-24
    I don't think so. It will continue to grow. Perhaps each family will have 2-3 subscriptions. 
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  • Ahsiang
    ·2022-01-24
    Ya lor
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