To The Moon

At the beginning of 2025, the emergence of DeepSeek R1 plunged global developers into sleepless nights of technological anxiety; one year later, during the 2026 Spring Festival, this competition is set to reignite in a more down-to-earth manner, playing out across the social interactions and shopping carts of 1.4 billion people. On February 2, Alibaba's native AI application, the Qwen APP, announced an investment of 3 billion yuan to launch its "Spring Festival Treat Plan," integrating with Alibaba's entire ecosystem including Hema, Fliggy, Damai, Taobao Flash Sales, and Tmall Supermarket to invite the nation to "eat, drink, and have fun" during the holiday through freebies and substantial red envelopes. This initiative represents not only the largest-ever Spring Festival campaign investment in Alibaba's history but also sets a new record for the upper limit of AI red envelope battle spending among major tech firms this year. On the surface, this appears to be another traditional game of "buying traffic with money." However, industry insiders view this massive 3 billion yuan expenditure not merely as marketing but as a survival game fundamentally concerning control over access points in the AI era. Alibaba is testing an ambitious path: through a "saturation attack" on high-frequency life scenarios, it aims to诱导 users to shift decision-making authority from finger taps to AI commands, thereby achieving a historic migration from "traffic entry points" to "system-level entry points." For a long time, the moats of internet giants were built upon walls of numerous standalone apps. Users opened Taobao for shopping, switched to Fliggy for booking tickets, and jumped to Taopiaopiao for movie tickets. This "siloed" consumption path once formed the cornerstone of platform economy distribution efficiency. Yet, the rise of AI Agents is dismantling these walls. On January 15, Qwen APP announced it had integrated with Alibaba ecosystem scenarios like Taobao Flash Sales, Alipay, Taobao, Fliggy, and Amap to test AI shopping functionalities. An insider from the Qwen APP revealed: "The release half a month ago was essentially preparation for the Spring Festival offensive. While most AI assistants on the market remain at the chatting stage, Qwen aims to integrate into people's real-life consumption during this Spring Festival." This "capable of getting things done" logic serves as the core pivot of Qwen's current Spring Festival offensive. Some netizens have noticed that when inquiring about movie tickets, they can already purchase them directly from the main chat interface of the Qwen APP. It has been learned that the AI movie ticket purchasing function is undergoing limited testing and will soon be fully launched. So, is this 3 billion yuan investment worthwhile for Alibaba? From a financial statement perspective, 3 billion yuan undoubtedly represents significant capital expenditure. However, in the latter half of the AI large model race, the definition of customer acquisition cost is being rewritten. Last Spring Festival, the explosive popularity of DeepSeek made the market realize that pure technological superiority could yield explosive word-of-mouth. But as the AI competition enters its later stages, the generational gap in model capabilities is narrowing, making "DeepSeek-style" technological dividends difficult to replicate. Enhancing "task execution capability" and swiftly capturing user mindshare are clearly central to Alibaba's strategy to seize the super entry point of the AI era. Nevertheless, how to retain users and create a commercial闭环 for AI remains the Sword of Damocles hanging over all major tech firms. Through the universally relatable method of "treating," Alibaba attempts to conduct a nationwide AI mindset启蒙 within a mere half month. If 3 billion yuan can habituate hundreds of millions of users to "asking AI for help," then Alibaba will have captured the most expensive commercial real estate of the AI era—the first point of contact for user intent. Once this migration path to a "system-level entry point" is proven viable, Qwen will transcend being a mere tool app, evolving into an AI operating system covering all scenarios. At that point, traditional search advertising and feed recommendations would transform towards AI-powered distribution, the commercial value behind which far exceeds a mere 3 billion yuan. Furthermore, during the Spring Festival traffic peak, this campaign serves as an ultimate stress test for Alibaba's ecosystem synergy capabilities. Mobilizing almost all of Alibaba's "spearhead units" like Taobao, Alipay, and Amap, this seamless cross-business integration will face its most rigorous examination on the Spring Festival battlefield. Yet, this Spring Festival battle is destined to be fiercely contested. By the 2026 Spring Festival, the AI rivalry among major firms had reached a fever pitch. Tencent's Yuanbao fired the first shot with a 1 billion yuan cash red envelope campaign, Baidu's Ernie launched a 500 million yuan Spring Festival red envelope activity, while ByteDance's Doubao secured the exclusive interactive partnership slot for the CCTV Spring Festival Gala. Amid this traditional "red envelope shower" strategy, Alibaba has chosen a more arduous path. It is not content with merely giving away money; it aims to use the powerful lure of "freebies" to exchange for users' "first experience" of the AI consumption chain. According to the Qwen APP's official Weibo, the "Qwen Spring Festival Treat Plan" will officially launch on February 6, emphasizing "non-stop freebies for吃喝玩乐" alongside large cash red envelopes. However, regarding specific freebie rules, Alibaba stated that details will follow in subsequent announcements. Last year was the moment for "deep thinking," while this year belongs to "AI Agents." Behind this shift lies the collective anxiety of internet giants facing growth plateaus. As the growth红利 of apps are exhausted, whoever can first define the consumption paradigm of the AI era will hold the discourse power for the next decade. Qwen's 3 billion yuan offensive acts like a depth charge dropped into calm waters. Whether it can truly ignite the first year of AI shopping and popularize the AI-era lifestyle, however, remains to be seen.