To The Moon

Investors holding a bullish view on SpaceX should keep a close eye on the company's cash flow statement over the next year or so, as a wave of expenditures is set to surge dramatically.

KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock noted in his latest report that massive capital expenditures and large-scale financing will become unavoidable realities in the SpaceX investment thesis over the coming months, as the company aggressively builds out its future-facing business footprint.

"The industry has established a benchmark: capital expenditures for building AI computing capacity run around $50 billion per gigawatt. Even under a conservative approach, building only 6-7 gigawatts of computing power by the end of 2027 (rather than 8-9 gigawatts), and even if SpaceX enjoys cost advantages over peers that drive efficiency gains, cumulative capital investment would still reach $250-300 billion," Leshock wrote. "Meanwhile, the cost of deploying new AI computing capacity continues to rise; to hit planned computing targets, that level of investment is a very realistic estimate."

He added: "Given the company's roughly $100 billion cash reserve, the current pace of free cash flow burn, and the scale of planned investments, we believe SpaceX will pursue financing in the short to medium term to support business expansion. We expect the company will need approximately $325 billion in additional funding over the next 18-24 months."

Market conditions for SpaceX shares are stabilizing as the stock moves off its post-IPO lows. The shares have rebounded from an intraday low of $104.83 on August 3, closing at $140.57 on August 14.

SpaceX is currently trading at $148.29, up $8.29 (5.92%) as of 11:00:23 AM ET during intraday trading.

The market has been more focused on the lock-up expiration and the rebound from lows, while somewhat overlooking the positives and negatives revealed in the Q2 earnings report, as well as the possibility of similar operational performance repeating in Q3.

First, the company's first post-IPO earnings report posted a substantial loss. Second, SpaceX reported total capital expenditures of $18.4 billion in Q2, far exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of around $6 billion. Third, the company did not provide specific 2026 guidance.

However, Wall Street remains largely bullish overall. According to Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace data, approximately 80% of sell-side analysts rate the stock as "Buy" or "Strong Buy."

Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein said in a research note: "High capital expenditure expectations, along with market questions about how SpaceX will monetize AI and Starlink mobility businesses, continue to pressure the stock. But after reviewing the Q2 report, we believe SpaceX's competitive position across its core arenas has improved, so our view leans optimistic."

In the coming weeks, SpaceX's Starship will launch again. This mission will mark the first attempt to capture the Starship upper stage directly at the launch tower, rather than using an ocean splashdown recovery. It represents one of the most significant milestones toward achieving full and rapid reusability.

This launch will also serve as a key test of whether Elon Musk's series of massive capital investments will prove worthwhile.