Risk asset prices rebounded as Asian stock indices traded on expectations of an end to hostilities. In early trading, Japanese and South Korean stock indices rose rapidly, while China's A-share market climbed back above the 4100-point mark. Stock index futures advanced across the board, with the CSI 1000 front-month contract IM2603 gaining over 1% during the session. From a sector perspective, domestic and overseas semiconductor stocks regained strength. On one hand, upstream and downstream segments of the industrial chain are facing a wave of price increases; on the other hand, the return of risk appetite has boosted technology and growth stock prices. If the Middle East geopolitical situation undergoes a substantive reversal in the future, stock indices may experience a valuation recovery, drawing attention to synchronized movements in global equity markets.
In overnight trading, international crude oil prices fell sharply after the U.S. hinted that the Iran conflict would end "soon," leading to a broad rise in risk assets. Crude oil prices influence inflation expectations; if prices rise rapidly, inflation levels could follow, potentially altering the global low-interest-rate monetary environment. Additionally, last Friday’s U.S. February non-farm payrolls data came in surprisingly weak, showing a decline of 92,000 jobs—significantly below the expected increase of 55,000. Previous months’ data were also revised down substantially, raising concerns about the U.S. entering a period of stagflation and leaving the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in a dilemma. Against this backdrop, valuations of global technology stocks have been noticeably impacted. As the U.S.-Iran situation remains unresolved, caution is advised in navigating the current high-volatility market.
