President-elect Donald Trump has promised to enact the largest tariff overhaul in generations, commencing with executive orders on Jan. 20, Inauguration Day. While the business community largely supported his presidential bid, his latest tariff proposals could cost many U.S. companies dearly.
On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S. by 60% and implement a 10% duty on imports from all other countries. Postelection, he said he intends to impose an additional 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada. And in late December, he threatened the European Union with tariffs if member countries don't increase their purchases of U.S. oil and gas to reduce the "tremendous" trade gap with the U.S.
If all of these tariff proposals go into effect, the average tariff rate will rise from 2.4% of the value of imported goods to 17.7%, according to estimates from the Tax Foundation. That would be the highest level enacted since 1934, during the Great Depression.
Companies with higher exposure to imported materials and parts could be hit especially hard, and that includes most American manufacturers. When the U.S. levies tariffs on imported steel, for instance, the cost to produce the final goods rises. To be sure, some companies will be able to pass higher costs on to consumers. But others may find that difficult after several years of inflation that battered household budgets.
In the short term, companies may try to renegotiate supplier contracts, reorganize supply chains, pull forward orders, bulk up inventories, and lobby for exemptions. In the longer term, however, the impact of Trump's new tariffs may be harder to evade. "We are going to get tariffs that are meaningful and, as in his first term, they will have economic impact, " says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
The U.S. collected a total of $33 billion in tariffs in 2017, according U.S. Customs and Border Protection data. From January 2018, the year Trump launched his trade war with China, to October 2024, collections totaled about $486 billion. Daniel Anthony, managing director of Trade Partnership Worldwide, a trade and economics research firm, calculates that more than half of all tariffs collected since 2018 are the result of the tariff actions undertaken by the first Trump administration.
Trade conditions and the U.S. economy are different today than in the lead-up to 2018, which could mean differences in how new tariff policies land. Imports of goods to the U.S. from China totaled $426.9 billion in 2023, a 20.7% decrease from 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Imports from Mexico totaled $475.2 billion in 2023, up about 38% from 2018.
Mexico accounted for almost 16% of imports as of October 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
China, Mexico and Canada have already indicated they will retaliate with tariffs against U.S. exports if Trump follows through with his proposals.
Retailers' Worries
The impact of new tariffs could differ among industries and by business size.
In the retail industry, about 23% of U.S. spending on durable consumer products -- and about 19% of spending on nondurables -- can be traced to imported goods, according to a 2019 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The changing trade dynamics haven't been lost on retailers. Nearly 30 of the 78 companies in the SPDR S&P Retail exchange-traded fund mentioned tariffs during their latest earnings calls, compared with no mentions a year ago, based on an AlphaSense analysis conducted by Barron's.
The full effect of any tariffs will depend on how well companies execute on efforts to offset the extra levy, says Lorne Bycoff, CEO of The Bycoff Group, an investment firm.
Retailers with high exposure to potential tariffs -- including dollar stores and sellers of consumer electronics, beauty products, toys, and home furnishings -- are already looking for ways to offset them, says Laura Siegel Rabinowitz, an international trade lawyer at Greenberg Traurig. Some are looking for sourcing alternatives or trying to import items before tariffs hit.
The industry likely will lobby for exceptions to tariffs or reductions in their scope. The toy industry largely skirted the prior round of tariffs following a successful campaign to paint higher prices on toys as an unpopular political move.
Investors should keep a close eye on Trump's final ruling, and monitor how successful company mitigation strategies are.
Tech Sector Tariffs
In the technology sector, the effect of tariffs on the final cost of goods will vary greatly because the tax is applied only to the foreign content in products. There is also a large domestic component to final prices, including importers' profits, and domestic services such as retail, transportation, and marketing.
Companies with substantial gross profit margins will be able to absorb a tariff hit better than those with slimmer margins. Chip maker NVIDIA's 76% gross margin will insulate it from most tariff-related pain. Computer hardware makers, which typically have a greater reliance on Chinese imports and much lower margins, will feel a greater pinch.
Apple gets a 37% gross profit margin on products, high for consumer hardware. A larger portion of the final price is subject to tariffs compared with Nvidia products. Apple's products are mostly built in China, which could leave most of the company's U.S. sales subject to tariffs. Apple successfully lobbied the first Trump administration for a tariff exemption.
Software and services providers such as Microsoft, Alphabet's Google, Amazon.com's AWS cloud business, and Meta Platforms, Inc. are primarily exporters, so U.S. tariffs won't affect them directly. But all four companies rely on imported technology to run their data centers, suggesting that their costs will rise if Trump's proposed tariffs take effect. Their combined capital expenditures totaled nearly $200 billion in the four quarters ended Sept. 30; about 60% of that was spent on imported equipment.
U.S. industries beyond retailing and tech will also take a hit if tariffs are imposed. Manufacturers with a large exposure to aluminum, zinc, and nickel are particularly vulnerable because most production occurs overseas. U.S. companies rely heavily on Mexico and Canada for these input materials. U.S. production of aluminum, for example, accounts for only 12% of domestic needs, writes David Wilson, director of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas.
Companies in construction, home-appliance and medical-equipment manufacturing, and even aerospace are likely to face higher input costs.
More Expensive Cars
In the auto industry, some 50% to 70% of parts for popular cars assembled in the U.S. come from Canada or are made domestically, with the rest imported from Mexico and elsewhere, based on data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Imports account for an average of 50% of all car parts, according to online automotive marketplace Cars.com. And roughly 25% of cars sold in the U.S. are assembled outside the country, and could be subject to stiff tariffs.
Chinese-made cars awaiting export at the port of Yantai in China’s Shandong province.
The overall impact of tariffs could be $3,000 per imported car, or about 6% of the average new-car price, calculates Emmanuel Rosner, an analyst at Wolfe Research. His estimate falls in the middle of Wall Street's range. Barron's previously estimated that a 10% universal tariff could raise the price of a new car manufactured in the U.S. by 4% or 5%. A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico would send prices up closer to 8%.
Higher prices on parts and materials could also impact the sales and profits of U.S. auto makers, particularly if they can't pass on the majority of the increased tariff costs. Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska estimates that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods would affect profits at Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis NV. GM's operating profit could fall as much as 30%, while the respective declines for Stellantis and Ford would be about 20% and 25%, he calculates.
More-expensive cars could reduce consumer demand. Baird analyst Luke Junk estimates that a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would reduce already sluggish demand for U.S. autos by about 1.1 million units, or about 7% of total demand, in a worst-case scenario.
Stocks Suffer, Too
History confirms that tariffs hurt not only companies' profits and purchasing power, but their stock prices, as well. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently calculated that the U.S. stock market suffered a cumulative decline of 11.5% on the 11 days from January 2018 through August 2019 when tariff actions were announced. That equated to a $4.1 trillion loss in market capitalization.
It is too soon to know the full size and scope of Trump's tariffs. But history -- and American businesses' reliance on imported parts and goods -- suggest many U.S. companies could be in for tougher times.