“大空头”切换“战斗模式”！Burry：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”

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“大空头”切换“战斗模式”！Burry：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”

华尔街见闻11-11

"大空头"Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。以预测2008年金融危机而闻名的“大空头”Michael Burry再次将矛头对准科技巨头。11月11日，Michael Burry在其...

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海星辰
·11-11
他都沒有賣出AI股, 只是上了保險.
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就是打爆空头
·11-11
這個吊毛做空英偉達和pltr後又來碰瓷這些科技股，等着破產吧
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Burry: Tech giants'inflated profits due to underestimated depreciation '","themeId":"000f40d9ea88f118adb49d657effb79c","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e83014d160db8d854330e68aa778ce42","symbols_score_info":{"META":1.5,"ORCL":1.5},"content_text":"\"大空头\"Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。以预测2008年金融危机而闻名的“大空头”Michael Burry再次将矛头对准科技巨头。11月11日，Michael Burry在其社交平台发帖称，科技巨头通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益。他估计从2026年到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。Burry承诺将在11月25日披露更多细节。他特别指出，到2028年，甲骨文的利润可能被夸大26.9%，而Meta的利润可能被夸大20.8%。值得注意的是，此前他曾披露持有英伟达和Palantir看跌期权，这再度引发市场对其看空AI行业立场的关注。此前，摩根士丹利和美国银行等华尔街投行也已发出警告，认为市场严重低估了当前AI投资的真实规模，且对未来折旧费用的冲击准备不足，这可能导致科技巨头的真实盈利能力远低于市场预期。会计“戏法”，延长硬件寿命以平滑成本Burry认为科技巨头正在会计处理上玩“把戏”。他在其X平台的帖子中指出，科技巨头们通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益，而这是“现代最常见的欺诈之一”。他认为，在科技公司大规模采购英伟达芯片和服务器以扩充算力的背景下，这些通常只有2至3年产品周期的计算设备，其折旧年限不应被延长。然而，包括Meta、Alphabet、微软、甲骨文和亚马逊在内的“超大规模”玩家们却正是这么做的，一些公司甚至将折旧周期延长至6年。(科技巨头每年关于服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命)不过，亚马逊在2025年第一季度已将部分服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命从六年缩短至五年，理由正是AI技术发展的加速。一旦这种趋势逆转并扩大，将导致折旧费用被加速确认，对短期盈利造成冲击。折旧“定时炸弹”，市场尚未消化未来的盈利冲击此前美银也曾认为，华尔街对未来折旧费用的增长速度“反应迟钝”。美银分析师Justin Post在报告中指出，随着谷歌、Meta和亚马逊的资本支出在2024年和2025年大幅增长，其折旧费用必然会在2026年后加速。据其测算，到2027年，仅这三家公司的折旧费用，市场普遍预测就可能比实际情况低了近164亿美元，这意味着它们未来的实际盈利能力或远低于当前的市场共识。此外，AI资产的“短寿”问题加剧了这一风险。用于AI计算的GPU等硬件技术迭代快、负荷高，有效寿命可能仅为三到五年。这一趋势与科技巨头延长设备使用年限的做法背道而驰。华尔街的警钟，被低估的资本开支与“表外”扩张摩根士丹利的研究则强调科技巨头AI资本开支强度正逼近互联网泡沫时期的峰值水平，但公开数据并未完全反映投资全貌。摩根士丹利强调，两大因素导致了实际投资规模被低估。首先是融资租赁的兴起。微软和甲骨文等公司正越来越多地通过此种“表外”工具建设数据中心，其初始投资不计入传统的资本支出。据该行估算，计入融资租赁后，微软2026财年的资本支出与销售额之比将从28%跃升至38%。其次是“在建工程（CIP）”的延迟效应，大量已支出的资本沉淀在资产负债表上，尚未开始计提折旧，其对利润的冲击才刚刚开始。美国银行则警告称，AI基础设施市场可能重演历史上因激进投资导致产能过剩和价格战的模式。美银认为，如果供应增长持续超过需求，最早在2027年，行业内可能会爆发更激进的定价策略。届时，为了维持数据中心的利用率，超大规模厂商可能被迫降价，从而侵蚀其盈利能力。这一预测，也为Burry关于科技巨头盈利能力虚高的观点提供了另一层面的佐证。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":498932123181696,"gmtCreate":1762834582189,"gmtModify":1762834585946,"author":{"id":"3557309240677406","authorId":"3557309240677406","name":"海星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/516c3206ce72ee8a8f229024e23323ea","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557309240677406","authorIdStr":"3557309240677406"},"htmlText":"他都沒有賣出AI股, 只是上了保險.&nbsp;","listText":"他都沒有賣出AI股, 只是上了保險.&nbsp;","text":"他都沒有賣出AI股, 只是上了保險.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/498932123181696","repostId":2582333868,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2582333868","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1762829144,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2582333868?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-11-11 10:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"\"Big Short\" switches to \"Combat Mode\"! Burry: Tech giants'inflated profits due to underestimated depreciation '","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582333868","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"\"大空头\"Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。","content":"<html><head></head><body>\"Big Short\" Michael Burry pointed out that the actual life of equipment such as AI chips is only 2-3 years, but some companies have extended the depreciation cycle to 6 years. He expects Big Tech companies to inflate profits by $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 due to underestimated depreciation. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also warned that future surges in depreciation expenses will severely impact the profitability of technology giants.Michael Burry, the \"big short\" known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has once again taken aim at tech giants.On November 11, Michael Burry posted on his social platform that,Tech giants artificially inflate yields by underestimating depreciation by extending the'useful life 'of assets。He estimates that from 2026 to 2028, Big Tech will inflate profits by $176 billion due to underestimated depreciation.Burry promised to disclose more details on Nov. 25. He specifically pointed out that,By 2028, Oracle's profits could be inflated 26.9%, while Meta's profits could be inflated by 20.8%.It is worth noting that he had previously disclosed that he held put options on Nvidia and Palantir, which once again aroused the market's attention to his bearish stance on the AI industry.Previously, Wall Street investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also issued warnings, believing thatThe market has seriously underestimated the true scale of current AI investment and is insufficiently prepared for the impact of future depreciation expenses, which may cause the true profitability of technology giants to be far lower than market expectations.<h2 id=\"efffd80b\">Accounting'tricks' to extend hardware life to smooth costs</h2>Burry believes tech giants are playing \"tricks\" on accounting treatment.In a post on his X platform, he noted that tech giants are artificially inflating yields by underestimating depreciation by extending the \"effective useful life\" of assets, which is \"one of the most common frauds in modern times.\"He believes that,In the context of large-scale procurement of Nvidia chips and servers by technology companies to expand computing power, the depreciation life of these computing devices, which usually have only a product cycle of 2 to 3 years, should not be extended.However, \"hyperscale\" players including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle, and Amazon are doing exactly that, with some companies even extending the depreciation cycle to six years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad289aa18c6e902f42ae0de3dac53393\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"411\"/>(Estimated service life of servers and network equipment by technology giants every year)However, Amazon has shortened the estimated service life of some servers and network devices from six years to five years in the first quarter of 2025, citing the acceleration of AI technology development.Once this trend reverses and expands, it will lead to accelerated recognition of depreciation expenses, which will have an impact on short-term earnings.<h2 id=\"3f62a55b\">Depreciation'time bomb ', market has yet to digest future earnings shocks</h2>Previously, Bank of America also believed that Wall Street was \"unresponsive\" to the growth rate of future depreciation expenses.Bank of America analyst Justin Post pointed out in the report that as the capital expenditures of Google, Meta and Amazon increase significantly in 2024 and 2025, their depreciation expenses are bound to accelerate after 2026.According to its calculations, by 2027, only the depreciation expenses of these three companies,The consensus forecast may be nearly $16.4 billion lower than the actual situation, which means that their actual profitability in the future may be far lower than the current market consensus.In addition, the \"short life\" problem of AI assets exacerbates this risk.Hardware technologies such as GPUs used for AI computing iterate quickly, have high loads, and may have an effective life of only three to five years. This trend runs counter to the practice of tech giants extending the useful life of their devices.<h2 id=\"a34dfe99\">Wall Street's wake-up call, undervalued capital expenditures and'off-balance sheet 'expansion</h2>Morgan Stanley's research emphasizes that the AI capital expenditure intensity of technology giants is approaching the peak level during the Internet bubble, but public data does not fully reflect the overall picture of investment.Morgan Stanley emphasized that two major factors led to the underestimation of the actual investment scale.FirstIt is the rise of financial leasing. Companies such as Microsoft and Oracle Bone Inscriptions are increasingly building data centers through such \"off-balance sheet\" tools, and their initial investment is not included in traditional capital expenditures.According to the bank's estimates, after including financial leases, Microsoft's capital expenditure-to-sales ratio in fiscal 2026 will jump from 28% to 38%.NextIt is the delayed effect of \"construction in progress (CIP)\". A large amount of spent capital is deposited on the balance sheet, and depreciation has not yet begun, and its impact on profits has just begun.Bank of America warned that,The AI infrastructure market may repeat the historical pattern of overcapacity and price wars caused by aggressive investment。Bank of America believes that if supply growth continues to outpace demand, more aggressive pricing strategies may explode in the industry as early as 2027。By then, in order to maintain data center utilization, hyperscalers may be forced to cut prices, thus eroding their profitability. This prediction also provides another level of evidence for Burry's view that the profitability of technology giants is inflated.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Big Short\" switches to \"Combat Mode\"! Burry: Tech giants'inflated profits due to underestimated depreciation '</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Big Short\" switches to \"Combat Mode\"! Burry: Tech giants'inflated profits due to underestimated depreciation '\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2025-11-11 10:45\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>\"Big Short\" Michael Burry pointed out that the actual life of equipment such as AI chips is only 2-3 years, but some companies have extended the depreciation cycle to 6 years. He expects Big Tech companies to inflate profits by $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 due to underestimated depreciation. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also warned that future surges in depreciation expenses will severely impact the profitability of technology giants.Michael Burry, the \"big short\" known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has once again taken aim at tech giants.On November 11, Michael Burry posted on his social platform that,Tech giants artificially inflate yields by underestimating depreciation by extending the'useful life 'of assets。He estimates that from 2026 to 2028, Big Tech will inflate profits by $176 billion due to underestimated depreciation.Burry promised to disclose more details on Nov. 25. He specifically pointed out that,By 2028, Oracle's profits could be inflated 26.9%, while Meta's profits could be inflated by 20.8%.It is worth noting that he had previously disclosed that he held put options on Nvidia and Palantir, which once again aroused the market's attention to his bearish stance on the AI industry.Previously, Wall Street investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also issued warnings, believing thatThe market has seriously underestimated the true scale of current AI investment and is insufficiently prepared for the impact of future depreciation expenses, which may cause the true profitability of technology giants to be far lower than market expectations.<h2 id=\"efffd80b\">Accounting'tricks' to extend hardware life to smooth costs</h2>Burry believes tech giants are playing \"tricks\" on accounting treatment.In a post on his X platform, he noted that tech giants are artificially inflating yields by underestimating depreciation by extending the \"effective useful life\" of assets, which is \"one of the most common frauds in modern times.\"He believes that,In the context of large-scale procurement of Nvidia chips and servers by technology companies to expand computing power, the depreciation life of these computing devices, which usually have only a product cycle of 2 to 3 years, should not be extended.However, \"hyperscale\" players including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle, and Amazon are doing exactly that, with some companies even extending the depreciation cycle to six years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad289aa18c6e902f42ae0de3dac53393\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"411\"/>(Estimated service life of servers and network equipment by technology giants every year)However, Amazon has shortened the estimated service life of some servers and network devices from six years to five years in the first quarter of 2025, citing the acceleration of AI technology development.Once this trend reverses and expands, it will lead to accelerated recognition of depreciation expenses, which will have an impact on short-term earnings.<h2 id=\"3f62a55b\">Depreciation'time bomb ', market has yet to digest future earnings shocks</h2>Previously, Bank of America also believed that Wall Street was \"unresponsive\" to the growth rate of future depreciation expenses.Bank of America analyst Justin Post pointed out in the report that as the capital expenditures of Google, Meta and Amazon increase significantly in 2024 and 2025, their depreciation expenses are bound to accelerate after 2026.According to its calculations, by 2027, only the depreciation expenses of these three companies,The consensus forecast may be nearly $16.4 billion lower than the actual situation, which means that their actual profitability in the future may be far lower than the current market consensus.In addition, the \"short life\" problem of AI assets exacerbates this risk.Hardware technologies such as GPUs used for AI computing iterate quickly, have high loads, and may have an effective life of only three to five years. This trend runs counter to the practice of tech giants extending the useful life of their devices.<h2 id=\"a34dfe99\">Wall Street's wake-up call, undervalued capital expenditures and'off-balance sheet 'expansion</h2>Morgan Stanley's research emphasizes that the AI capital expenditure intensity of technology giants is approaching the peak level during the Internet bubble, but public data does not fully reflect the overall picture of investment.Morgan Stanley emphasized that two major factors led to the underestimation of the actual investment scale.FirstIt is the rise of financial leasing. Companies such as Microsoft and Oracle Bone Inscriptions are increasingly building data centers through such \"off-balance sheet\" tools, and their initial investment is not included in traditional capital expenditures.According to the bank's estimates, after including financial leases, Microsoft's capital expenditure-to-sales ratio in fiscal 2026 will jump from 28% to 38%.NextIt is the delayed effect of \"construction in progress (CIP)\". A large amount of spent capital is deposited on the balance sheet, and depreciation has not yet begun, and its impact on profits has just begun.Bank of America warned that,The AI infrastructure market may repeat the historical pattern of overcapacity and price wars caused by aggressive investment。Bank of America believes that if supply growth continues to outpace demand, more aggressive pricing strategies may explode in the industry as early as 2027。By then, in order to maintain data center utilization, hyperscalers may be forced to cut prices, thus eroding their profitability. This prediction also provides another level of evidence for Burry's view that the profitability of technology giants is inflated.</body></html>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759101","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2582333868","content_text":"\"大空头\"Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。以预测2008年金融危机而闻名的“大空头”Michael Burry再次将矛头对准科技巨头。11月11日，Michael Burry在其社交平台发帖称，科技巨头通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益。他估计从2026年到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。Burry承诺将在11月25日披露更多细节。他特别指出，到2028年，甲骨文的利润可能被夸大26.9%，而Meta的利润可能被夸大20.8%。值得注意的是，此前他曾披露持有英伟达和Palantir看跌期权，这再度引发市场对其看空AI行业立场的关注。此前，摩根士丹利和美国银行等华尔街投行也已发出警告，认为市场严重低估了当前AI投资的真实规模，且对未来折旧费用的冲击准备不足，这可能导致科技巨头的真实盈利能力远低于市场预期。会计“戏法”，延长硬件寿命以平滑成本Burry认为科技巨头正在会计处理上玩“把戏”。他在其X平台的帖子中指出，科技巨头们通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益，而这是“现代最常见的欺诈之一”。他认为，在科技公司大规模采购英伟达芯片和服务器以扩充算力的背景下，这些通常只有2至3年产品周期的计算设备，其折旧年限不应被延长。然而，包括Meta、Alphabet、微软、甲骨文和亚马逊在内的“超大规模”玩家们却正是这么做的，一些公司甚至将折旧周期延长至6年。(科技巨头每年关于服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命)不过，亚马逊在2025年第一季度已将部分服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命从六年缩短至五年，理由正是AI技术发展的加速。一旦这种趋势逆转并扩大，将导致折旧费用被加速确认，对短期盈利造成冲击。折旧“定时炸弹”，市场尚未消化未来的盈利冲击此前美银也曾认为，华尔街对未来折旧费用的增长速度“反应迟钝”。美银分析师Justin Post在报告中指出，随着谷歌、Meta和亚马逊的资本支出在2024年和2025年大幅增长，其折旧费用必然会在2026年后加速。据其测算，到2027年，仅这三家公司的折旧费用，市场普遍预测就可能比实际情况低了近164亿美元，这意味着它们未来的实际盈利能力或远低于当前的市场共识。此外，AI资产的“短寿”问题加剧了这一风险。用于AI计算的GPU等硬件技术迭代快、负荷高，有效寿命可能仅为三到五年。这一趋势与科技巨头延长设备使用年限的做法背道而驰。华尔街的警钟，被低估的资本开支与“表外”扩张摩根士丹利的研究则强调科技巨头AI资本开支强度正逼近互联网泡沫时期的峰值水平，但公开数据并未完全反映投资全貌。摩根士丹利强调，两大因素导致了实际投资规模被低估。首先是融资租赁的兴起。微软和甲骨文等公司正越来越多地通过此种“表外”工具建设数据中心，其初始投资不计入传统的资本支出。据该行估算，计入融资租赁后，微软2026财年的资本支出与销售额之比将从28%跃升至38%。其次是“在建工程（CIP）”的延迟效应，大量已支出的资本沉淀在资产负债表上，尚未开始计提折旧，其对利润的冲击才刚刚开始。美国银行则警告称，AI基础设施市场可能重演历史上因激进投资导致产能过剩和价格战的模式。美银认为，如果供应增长持续超过需求，最早在2027年，行业内可能会爆发更激进的定价策略。届时，为了维持数据中心的利用率，超大规模厂商可能被迫降价，从而侵蚀其盈利能力。这一预测，也为Burry关于科技巨头盈利能力虚高的观点提供了另一层面的佐证。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"META":1.5,"ORCL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":498917425492200,"gmtCreate":1762831094973,"gmtModify":1762831302796,"author":{"id":"4192269094598602","authorId":"4192269094598602","name":"就是打爆空头","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6e1ce4a2785c85b6a278fa3b2ddfa52","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b7820dfed76481d8dc4de6ac5a7a136","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4192269094598602","authorIdStr":"4192269094598602"},"htmlText":"這個吊毛做空英偉達和pltr後又來碰瓷這些科技股，等着破產吧","listText":"這個吊毛做空英偉達和pltr後又來碰瓷這些科技股，等着破產吧","text":"這個吊毛做空英偉達和pltr後又來碰瓷這些科技股，等着破產吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/498917425492200","repostId":2582333868,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2582333868","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1762829144,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2582333868?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-11-11 10:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"\"Big Short\" switches to \"Combat Mode\"! Burry: Tech giants'inflated profits due to underestimated depreciation '","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582333868","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"\"大空头\"Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。","content":"<html><head></head><body>\"Big Short\" Michael Burry pointed out that the actual life of equipment such as AI chips is only 2-3 years, but some companies have extended the depreciation cycle to 6 years. He expects Big Tech companies to inflate profits by $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 due to underestimated depreciation. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also warned that future surges in depreciation expenses will severely impact the profitability of technology giants.Michael Burry, the \"big short\" known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has once again taken aim at tech giants.On November 11, Michael Burry posted on his social platform that,Tech giants artificially inflate yields by underestimating depreciation by extending the'useful life 'of assets。He estimates that from 2026 to 2028, Big Tech will inflate profits by $176 billion due to underestimated depreciation.Burry promised to disclose more details on Nov. 25. He specifically pointed out that,By 2028, Oracle's profits could be inflated 26.9%, while Meta's profits could be inflated by 20.8%.It is worth noting that he had previously disclosed that he held put options on Nvidia and Palantir, which once again aroused the market's attention to his bearish stance on the AI industry.Previously, Wall Street investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also issued warnings, believing thatThe market has seriously underestimated the true scale of current AI investment and is insufficiently prepared for the impact of future depreciation expenses, which may cause the true profitability of technology giants to be far lower than market expectations.<h2 id=\"efffd80b\">Accounting'tricks' to extend hardware life to smooth costs</h2>Burry believes tech giants are playing \"tricks\" on accounting treatment.In a post on his X platform, he noted that tech giants are artificially inflating yields by underestimating depreciation by extending the \"effective useful life\" of assets, which is \"one of the most common frauds in modern times.\"He believes that,In the context of large-scale procurement of Nvidia chips and servers by technology companies to expand computing power, the depreciation life of these computing devices, which usually have only a product cycle of 2 to 3 years, should not be extended.However, \"hyperscale\" players including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle, and Amazon are doing exactly that, with some companies even extending the depreciation cycle to six years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad289aa18c6e902f42ae0de3dac53393\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"411\"/>(Estimated service life of servers and network equipment by technology giants every year)However, Amazon has shortened the estimated service life of some servers and network devices from six years to five years in the first quarter of 2025, citing the acceleration of AI technology development.Once this trend reverses and expands, it will lead to accelerated recognition of depreciation expenses, which will have an impact on short-term earnings.<h2 id=\"3f62a55b\">Depreciation'time bomb ', market has yet to digest future earnings shocks</h2>Previously, Bank of America also believed that Wall Street was \"unresponsive\" to the growth rate of future depreciation expenses.Bank of America analyst Justin Post pointed out in the report that as the capital expenditures of Google, Meta and Amazon increase significantly in 2024 and 2025, their depreciation expenses are bound to accelerate after 2026.According to its calculations, by 2027, only the depreciation expenses of these three companies,The consensus forecast may be nearly $16.4 billion lower than the actual situation, which means that their actual profitability in the future may be far lower than the current market consensus.In addition, the \"short life\" problem of AI assets exacerbates this risk.Hardware technologies such as GPUs used for AI computing iterate quickly, have high loads, and may have an effective life of only three to five years. This trend runs counter to the practice of tech giants extending the useful life of their devices.<h2 id=\"a34dfe99\">Wall Street's wake-up call, undervalued capital expenditures and'off-balance sheet 'expansion</h2>Morgan Stanley's research emphasizes that the AI capital expenditure intensity of technology giants is approaching the peak level during the Internet bubble, but public data does not fully reflect the overall picture of investment.Morgan Stanley emphasized that two major factors led to the underestimation of the actual investment scale.FirstIt is the rise of financial leasing. Companies such as Microsoft and Oracle Bone Inscriptions are increasingly building data centers through such \"off-balance sheet\" tools, and their initial investment is not included in traditional capital expenditures.According to the bank's estimates, after including financial leases, Microsoft's capital expenditure-to-sales ratio in fiscal 2026 will jump from 28% to 38%.NextIt is the delayed effect of \"construction in progress (CIP)\". A large amount of spent capital is deposited on the balance sheet, and depreciation has not yet begun, and its impact on profits has just begun.Bank of America warned that,The AI infrastructure market may repeat the historical pattern of overcapacity and price wars caused by aggressive investment。Bank of America believes that if supply growth continues to outpace demand, more aggressive pricing strategies may explode in the industry as early as 2027。By then, in order to maintain data center utilization, hyperscalers may be forced to cut prices, thus eroding their profitability. This prediction also provides another level of evidence for Burry's view that the profitability of technology giants is inflated.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Big Short\" switches to \"Combat Mode\"! Burry: Tech giants'inflated profits due to underestimated depreciation '</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Big Short\" switches to \"Combat Mode\"! Burry: Tech giants'inflated profits due to underestimated depreciation '\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2025-11-11 10:45\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>\"Big Short\" Michael Burry pointed out that the actual life of equipment such as AI chips is only 2-3 years, but some companies have extended the depreciation cycle to 6 years. He expects Big Tech companies to inflate profits by $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 due to underestimated depreciation. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also warned that future surges in depreciation expenses will severely impact the profitability of technology giants.Michael Burry, the \"big short\" known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has once again taken aim at tech giants.On November 11, Michael Burry posted on his social platform that,Tech giants artificially inflate yields by underestimating depreciation by extending the'useful life 'of assets。He estimates that from 2026 to 2028, Big Tech will inflate profits by $176 billion due to underestimated depreciation.Burry promised to disclose more details on Nov. 25. He specifically pointed out that,By 2028, Oracle's profits could be inflated 26.9%, while Meta's profits could be inflated by 20.8%.It is worth noting that he had previously disclosed that he held put options on Nvidia and Palantir, which once again aroused the market's attention to his bearish stance on the AI industry.Previously, Wall Street investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also issued warnings, believing thatThe market has seriously underestimated the true scale of current AI investment and is insufficiently prepared for the impact of future depreciation expenses, which may cause the true profitability of technology giants to be far lower than market expectations.<h2 id=\"efffd80b\">Accounting'tricks' to extend hardware life to smooth costs</h2>Burry believes tech giants are playing \"tricks\" on accounting treatment.In a post on his X platform, he noted that tech giants are artificially inflating yields by underestimating depreciation by extending the \"effective useful life\" of assets, which is \"one of the most common frauds in modern times.\"He believes that,In the context of large-scale procurement of Nvidia chips and servers by technology companies to expand computing power, the depreciation life of these computing devices, which usually have only a product cycle of 2 to 3 years, should not be extended.However, \"hyperscale\" players including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle, and Amazon are doing exactly that, with some companies even extending the depreciation cycle to six years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad289aa18c6e902f42ae0de3dac53393\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"411\"/>(Estimated service life of servers and network equipment by technology giants every year)However, Amazon has shortened the estimated service life of some servers and network devices from six years to five years in the first quarter of 2025, citing the acceleration of AI technology development.Once this trend reverses and expands, it will lead to accelerated recognition of depreciation expenses, which will have an impact on short-term earnings.<h2 id=\"3f62a55b\">Depreciation'time bomb ', market has yet to digest future earnings shocks</h2>Previously, Bank of America also believed that Wall Street was \"unresponsive\" to the growth rate of future depreciation expenses.Bank of America analyst Justin Post pointed out in the report that as the capital expenditures of Google, Meta and Amazon increase significantly in 2024 and 2025, their depreciation expenses are bound to accelerate after 2026.According to its calculations, by 2027, only the depreciation expenses of these three companies,The consensus forecast may be nearly $16.4 billion lower than the actual situation, which means that their actual profitability in the future may be far lower than the current market consensus.In addition, the \"short life\" problem of AI assets exacerbates this risk.Hardware technologies such as GPUs used for AI computing iterate quickly, have high loads, and may have an effective life of only three to five years. This trend runs counter to the practice of tech giants extending the useful life of their devices.<h2 id=\"a34dfe99\">Wall Street's wake-up call, undervalued capital expenditures and'off-balance sheet 'expansion</h2>Morgan Stanley's research emphasizes that the AI capital expenditure intensity of technology giants is approaching the peak level during the Internet bubble, but public data does not fully reflect the overall picture of investment.Morgan Stanley emphasized that two major factors led to the underestimation of the actual investment scale.FirstIt is the rise of financial leasing. Companies such as Microsoft and Oracle Bone Inscriptions are increasingly building data centers through such \"off-balance sheet\" tools, and their initial investment is not included in traditional capital expenditures.According to the bank's estimates, after including financial leases, Microsoft's capital expenditure-to-sales ratio in fiscal 2026 will jump from 28% to 38%.NextIt is the delayed effect of \"construction in progress (CIP)\". A large amount of spent capital is deposited on the balance sheet, and depreciation has not yet begun, and its impact on profits has just begun.Bank of America warned that,The AI infrastructure market may repeat the historical pattern of overcapacity and price wars caused by aggressive investment。Bank of America believes that if supply growth continues to outpace demand, more aggressive pricing strategies may explode in the industry as early as 2027。By then, in order to maintain data center utilization, hyperscalers may be forced to cut prices, thus eroding their profitability. This prediction also provides another level of evidence for Burry's view that the profitability of technology giants is inflated.</body></html>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759101","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2582333868","content_text":"\"大空头\"Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。以预测2008年金融危机而闻名的“大空头”Michael Burry再次将矛头对准科技巨头。11月11日，Michael Burry在其社交平台发帖称，科技巨头通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益。他估计从2026年到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。Burry承诺将在11月25日披露更多细节。他特别指出，到2028年，甲骨文的利润可能被夸大26.9%，而Meta的利润可能被夸大20.8%。值得注意的是，此前他曾披露持有英伟达和Palantir看跌期权，这再度引发市场对其看空AI行业立场的关注。此前，摩根士丹利和美国银行等华尔街投行也已发出警告，认为市场严重低估了当前AI投资的真实规模，且对未来折旧费用的冲击准备不足，这可能导致科技巨头的真实盈利能力远低于市场预期。会计“戏法”，延长硬件寿命以平滑成本Burry认为科技巨头正在会计处理上玩“把戏”。他在其X平台的帖子中指出，科技巨头们通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益，而这是“现代最常见的欺诈之一”。他认为，在科技公司大规模采购英伟达芯片和服务器以扩充算力的背景下，这些通常只有2至3年产品周期的计算设备，其折旧年限不应被延长。然而，包括Meta、Alphabet、微软、甲骨文和亚马逊在内的“超大规模”玩家们却正是这么做的，一些公司甚至将折旧周期延长至6年。(科技巨头每年关于服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命)不过，亚马逊在2025年第一季度已将部分服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命从六年缩短至五年，理由正是AI技术发展的加速。一旦这种趋势逆转并扩大，将导致折旧费用被加速确认，对短期盈利造成冲击。折旧“定时炸弹”，市场尚未消化未来的盈利冲击此前美银也曾认为，华尔街对未来折旧费用的增长速度“反应迟钝”。美银分析师Justin Post在报告中指出，随着谷歌、Meta和亚马逊的资本支出在2024年和2025年大幅增长，其折旧费用必然会在2026年后加速。据其测算，到2027年，仅这三家公司的折旧费用，市场普遍预测就可能比实际情况低了近164亿美元，这意味着它们未来的实际盈利能力或远低于当前的市场共识。此外，AI资产的“短寿”问题加剧了这一风险。用于AI计算的GPU等硬件技术迭代快、负荷高，有效寿命可能仅为三到五年。这一趋势与科技巨头延长设备使用年限的做法背道而驰。华尔街的警钟，被低估的资本开支与“表外”扩张摩根士丹利的研究则强调科技巨头AI资本开支强度正逼近互联网泡沫时期的峰值水平，但公开数据并未完全反映投资全貌。摩根士丹利强调，两大因素导致了实际投资规模被低估。首先是融资租赁的兴起。微软和甲骨文等公司正越来越多地通过此种“表外”工具建设数据中心，其初始投资不计入传统的资本支出。据该行估算，计入融资租赁后，微软2026财年的资本支出与销售额之比将从28%跃升至38%。其次是“在建工程（CIP）”的延迟效应，大量已支出的资本沉淀在资产负债表上，尚未开始计提折旧，其对利润的冲击才刚刚开始。美国银行则警告称，AI基础设施市场可能重演历史上因激进投资导致产能过剩和价格战的模式。美银认为，如果供应增长持续超过需求，最早在2027年，行业内可能会爆发更激进的定价策略。届时，为了维持数据中心的利用率，超大规模厂商可能被迫降价，从而侵蚀其盈利能力。这一预测，也为Burry关于科技巨头盈利能力虚高的观点提供了另一层面的佐证。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"META":1.5,"ORCL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}