Tis supposed to be the season to be jolly. While stocks rallied to end November, market sentiment to start the new month seemed less sure, with Bitcoin -- often the leading edge of risk sentiment -- seeing a wave of selling.
History, at least, suggests investors are in for some holiday cheer.
Since their inception, the Dow and S&P 500 have gained an average of 1.3% in the month of December, with the Nasdaq Composite notching a 1.5% rise on average.
A year-end rally is something of a tradition--the S&P 500 rises 72% of the time in December, the highest percentage of any month.
While statistical trends bode well, there are risks to consider -- namely, the interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve on Dec. 10. The odds of a quarter-point rate cut rose above 80% last week, helping stocks higher, and those odds have climbed again, to almost 90%, to start this week.
Investors seem increasingly sure of the central bank's next move, but that also leaves limited room for an upside surprise that could give stocks another boost. This week will be key, because it sees the last wave of economic data before the Fed's rate decision.
Monday holds manufacturing data and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The ADP employment report for November comes Wednesday, before Friday's core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation metric. However, the government shutdown has delayed the core PCE release, so the numbers are outdated, from September.
Any words from Powell or hints in the data that disrupt bets on the Fed's next move could mean pain for stocks until the central bank does, in all likelihood, slash rates next week.
Once the Fed decision is done, market chatter will begin about the so-called Santa Rally that usually happens through the end of the year. But we're getting ahead of ourselves. There's still a whole month for investors to make sure they're on Santa's nice list.
-- Jack Denton
***Join Barron's senior managing editor Ben Levisohn, associate editor Al Root, and Barron's Investor Circle's Josh Schafer today at noon when they discuss what could be in store for stocks, Tesla, the Fed, and the AI trade as the market heads into the last month of 2025. Sign up here .
What's Ahead for Markets in 2026? From "Liberation Day" tariffs to torrid rallies in AI stocks and gold, this year has been full of surprises. Join us on Dec. 11 at noon for discussions with investment strategists and money managers about the outlook for the economy and markets in 2026 -- and how to position your portfolio for success. Sign up here.
***
Black Friday Sales Rise as Shoppers Bargain Hunt Online
Black Friday sales were higher than a year ago, both online and in stores as consumers continue to navigate an uncertain economic environment. Shoppers are hitting stores earlier, making use of promotions, and investing in wish-list items, according to Mastercard Economics Institute chief economist Michelle Meyer.
-- Mastercard SpendingPulse said U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1%
compared with Black Friday 2024. E-commerce sales jumped 10.4% from last
year, while in-store sales rose a more modest 1.7%, Mastercard said.
Adobe put Black Friday online sales at $11.8 billion.
-- People were shopping online even before Black Friday. According to Adobe
Analytics, U.S. consumers spent a record $6.4 billion online on
Thanksgiving itself, up 5.3% from a year ago. That compares with the
company's initial forecast of $6.37 billion for the day, which would have
represented 4.9%.
-- Salesforce said that U.S. consumers spent $8.4 billion shopping on
Thanksgiving, rising 3% from a year ago. The growth was largely
attributed to people buying higher-priced goods rather than more items.
Order volumes fell 2% from a year ago, and the average selling price was
up 8%.
-- The most discounted categories for Thanksgiving Day sales were makeup,
skincare, and home, dining, art, and decor, Salesforce said, all with
average markdowns ranging from 33% to 37%. The top-performing categories,
however, were active apparel and footwear, food and beverage, and luxury
clothing.
What's Next: Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights said Black Friday sales were driven by deals for electronics, toys, and apparel. Pandya expects discounts to remain elevated through today, which retailers call Cyber Monday, the biggest online shopping day of the year.
-- Angela Palumbo and Sabrina Escobar
***
Bitcoin Tumbled Below $90,000. Traders Are Feeling 'Extreme Fear.'
Bitcoin dropped back below a key level early Monday, extinguishing hopes that last week's mini-rebound would become a full-fledged comeback. Technical indicators look negative, and one gauge of investor sentiment is now flashing red.
-- The price of Bitcoin fell 5.1% over the past 24 hours to $86,648. The
largest digital asset reclaimed the key $90,000 support level last week
thanks to a recovery in wider risk sentiment, but fell through that again
on Sunday.
-- The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which is a composite measurement of
crypto investor sentiment, was also flashing red, with the index at 20
out of 100, indicating "Extreme Fear." It could be a sign that the market
still has some doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates in December, which would ease lending conditions and boost
liquidity.
-- Crypto traders will also be keeping a close eye on Strategy, formerly
known as MicroStrategy, which discloses its weekly Bitcoin purchases on
Mondays. The company didn't buy any tokens in the week ended Nov. 23--the
first time in about a month and a half that it didn't add to its
stockpile of Bitcoin.
-- Ethereum, the second-largest crypto by market cap, fell 6% over the past
24 hours to $2,850. Smaller cryptos were also in decline, with XRP
retreating 6%, Solana slipping 7%, and so-called memecoin Dogecoin down
8%.
What's Next: History suggests that December isn't a good month for Bitcoin, with precedents pointing to a coin flip for performance in the month ahead. Bitcoin has only risen in the period between Black Friday and the end of the year in 54% of cases since 2014, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
-- Jack Denton and George Glover
***
Wall Street Gets Its Groove Back for December After Rollercoaster
Wall Street is entering December with momentum, having reversed one of the worst November performances in more than a decade with the best week of gains in nearly six months. A variety of factors could power stocks higher, offsetting risks such as a potentially disruptive Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.
-- The S&P 500, fueled by Magnificent Seven stock gains, resilient economy,
and expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve,
is up double-digits in 2025. The index has the 7000-point threshold
within sight and could end up with at least a 20% gain for the third
consecutive year.
-- That last feat hasn't been done since the mid-1990s. A December rate cut
could help it happen. Futures markets now imply roughly 87% odds of a
quarter-point reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool,
backed by weak data on private sector jobs growth and retail sales and
declining consumer confidence.
-- Also on the list of positive market factors are the Republican tax and
spending package enacted this summer and the end of the Fed's balance
sheet size reduction. The legislation, effective Jan. 1, will add a
potent mix of spending increases, tax cuts, and accounting changes.
-- December is setting up on a positive note. The 10-year Treasury yield is
holding below 4%, volatility is down, and tech stocks are taking a back
seat to sectors such as healthcare, materials, and consumer
discretionary. That suggests more broadly based gains could be coming.
What's Next: Even history points to stocks moving higher. Bank of America data suggest that the second half of December is the second strongest period of the year for U.S. stocks going all the way back to 1928. The average return is 1%, with gains around 70% of the time.
-- Martin Baccardax
***
Thanksgiving Air Travel Disrupted, And More Storms Expected
The disruptions from the government shutdown were one thing, but people traveling on the expected busiest day of the Thanksgiving holiday faced thousands of flight delays and hundreds of cancellations as a winter storm interrupted flights at several major airports including Chicago O'Hare International.
-- Flight delays piled up like the foot of snow expected to fall on parts of
the upper Midwest. More than 12,000 U.S. flights were delayed and about
1,000 were canceled, according to FlightAware.com. Disruptions affected
airports from Dallas and Minneapolis to Miami and New York.
-- Airlines had already scrambled to update software on about 6,000 Airbus
planes after the jet maker cited the potential for intense solar
radiation to corrupt data critical to flight control functions. American
Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines expected no impact on
flights, but that was Saturday.
-- Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said in a LinkedIn post on Saturday that the
software fix, requested by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency on
Friday, caused "significant logistical challenges and delays,"
apologizing to airlines and passengers.
-- Airlines for America, an industry group, projected a record-breaking 31
million passengers would travel over the Thanksgiving holiday, between
Nov. 21 and Dec. 1, including 3.4 million passengers who were projected
to fly on Sunday, and 3.1 million today.
What's Next: Another storm has the potential to disrupt flights and travel early this week, as winter storm watches go up from central Pennsylvania to northern Maine. The National Weather Service said the coastal storm could bring five to eight inches of snow to interior portions of the region.
-- Janet H. Cho, and Angela Palumbo
***
Walt Disney Tops Box Office as Studios Hope for Hollywood Ending
Walt Disney scored its second-biggest Thanksgiving weekend premiere with Zootopia 2, which took the top spot domestically and globally with more than a half a billion dollars in global ticket sales. It's a crucial season for Hollywood studios, which are trying to reach a $9 billion domestic box office threshold.
-- Zootopia 2 sold $156 million domestically over five days, second to Moana
2's $225.4 million. Zootopia 2 sold another $400.4 million
internationally, for an estimated $556.4 million global opening. The
animated film was the highest global debut of 2025 and Disney's
highest-ever global opening, Comscore said.
-- Universal's Broadway musical Wicked: For Good sold another $93 million to
take second place in its second weekend. Its domestic cumulative total
through Sunday is $270.4 million, and globally it is $393.3 million.
-- IMAX theaters reported $40.8 million in ticket sales over the five-day
weekend, up 70% over last year and its biggest Thanksgiving weekend ever.
But overall, Hollywood has some work to do to achieve its $9 billion
goal. Sales for October were unexpectedly weak, but studios have a packed
release calendar.
-- Before the pandemic, Hollywood was raking in about $11 billion a year at
the domestic box office, with the record being $11.9 billion in 2018.
Hollywood sold a total of $8.7 billion at the box office last year amid
writers' and actors' strikes, and $9 billion in 2023.
What's Next: So far this year, domestic box office sales have reached $7.8 billion, up 1.24% from this point in 2024, according to Comscore. Hollywood needs to bank another $1.2 billion from now through Dec. 31 to hit that $9 billion goal.
-- Janet H. Cho
***
-- Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Callum Keown, Rupert Steiner
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 01, 2025 07:04 ET (12:04 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
