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Ukraine Sovereign Bonds Look Overvalued Given Geopolitical Tensions -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-24

1503 GMT - Ukraine's sovereign bonds look expensive given the ongoing war with Russia and the Middle East war, Oxford Economics' Evghenia Sleptsova says in a note. "The 2029 bond is trading around 75 cents, while Oxford Economics' fair value estimate is 57 cents," she says. Market pricing is based on the assumption that the war with Russia will end by 2028, underpricing the risk of the war continuing beyond 2028, Sleptsova says. In addition, the Middle East war and higher energy costs are expected to add to Ukraine's debt problems, she says. "Each $10 increase in the oil price would add about $700million to $1billion in higher energy import costs, widening [Ukraine's] current account deficit." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 24, 2026 11:03 ET (15:03 GMT)

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