By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting March 23.
Provisional purchasing managers' surveys for March in the U.S. and Europe in the week will provide a key gauge of how the ongoing war in the Middle East has impacted sentiment and business activity.
"This is significant because it's one of the first economic indicators we'll get that cover the period since the conflict began," Deutsche Bank economists said in a note.
Inflation data from the U.K., Japan and Australia will also be watched closely as concerns grow about the impact of prolonged high energy prices.
Developments in the Middle East and consequent movements in energy prices will remain firmly on investors' radar.
U.S.
Provisional U.S. purchasing managers' surveys for manufacturing and services due Tuesday will give an initial indication of how businesses have held up during the Middle East war, which has caused a sharp spike in oil and gas prices.
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold at its recent meeting and signaled that inflation risks could make it difficult to cut interest rates. However, the U.S. economy is considered to be in a better position than those of many countries in Europe and Asia as the U.S. is a net energy exporter.
Other U.S. data due during the week are thin on the ground but will still attract attention.
Fourth-quarter revised productivity and costs data are due Tuesday, weekly jobless claims Thursday and the University of Michigan's final consumer survey for March on Friday.
"The Fed has a dual mandate--preserving price stability and maximising employment--and the second part is also facing greater challenges," said ING economist James Knightley in a note. "Hence why we still feel the Fed is more likely to cut than hike rates."
The Treasury will auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.
Latin America
Mexico's central bank is due to announce an interest-rate decision Thursday, when it could cut its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% from 7.0% currently.
This decision would be consistent with the central bank's recent guidance and focus on underlying trends, HSBC economists said in a note.
The central bank is likely to give more cautious guidance, however, potentially indicating a pause at the May meeting to assess the potential shocks from higher energy prices, they said.
Eurozone
Clues on how the Middle East war and the recent hefty spike in energy prices has impacted business and consumer sentiment will be provided by provisional purchasing managers' surveys for March from France, Germany and the eurozone on Tuesday, as well as several confidence surveys due during the week.
"Whilst the February [eurozone PMI] report pointed to signs of rising demand and improved optimism, developments in the Middle East threaten to undermine the pickup in activity," Investec's Ryan Djajasaputra said in a note. The manufacturing sector will feel the impact of sharply higher energy prices "most acutely," he said.
"We expect that the shroud of uncertainty created by the conflict will weigh on the PMI this month."
Eurozone preliminary consumer confidence data for March are also released Monday. Germany's closely-watched Ifo business climate index for March is due Wednesday. French manufacturing confidence for March is released Thursday.
Spain's preliminary inflation data for March on Friday will also give a preview of just how much the energy-price spike has fed into prices.
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its March meeting but signaled a readiness to raise rates if high energy prices cause a jump in inflation. Eurozone money markets now fully price a rate hike in June, LSEG data showed.
Belgium will hold an auction on Monday, and the Netherlands will do so on Tuesday. Germany, whose Finance Agency will publish its quarterly funding review on Monday, will sell April 2031 Bobl on Tuesday and May 2041- and August 2052-Dated Bunds on Wednesday. Italy will hold auctions on Wednesday and Friday.
U.K.
U.K. consumer-price inflation data for February on Wednesday will be the highlight of U.K. economic data in the coming week.
Although the data refers to the month before the Middle East war caused a huge spike in oil and gas prices, it will be closely scrutinized by investors.
The U.K. already has high inflation. The Bank of England recently left interest rates on hold, suggesting that it could raise rates to tackle rising inflation if need be.
The inflation data will give a picture of where inflation stood just prior to the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. Higher-than-expected inflation could unnerve investors. U.K. ten-year government-bond yields have hit their highest since 2008, while money markets are pricing in three U.K. rate hikes this year, LSEG data show.
"We expect the CPI and RPI inflation rates to hold steady in the February print, at 3.0% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively," HSBC economists said in a note.
Producer price inflation data for March are also due Wednesday.
Provisional purchasing managers' surveys for March on U.K. manufacturing and services-sector activity will be released on Tuesday, providing a snapshot of sentiment following the start of the Middle East war.
GfK's consumer confidence survey for March is released on Friday, followed by U.K. retail sales figures for February.
Upcoming U.K. government-bond auctions will be watched closely given the recent jump in gilt yields. The U.K. will sell October 2035 gilts on Tuesday and hold a programmatic tender of January 2056 gilts on Thursday.
Scandinavia
Norway's central bank, or Norges Bank, announces a decision on Thursday, where it is expected to leave rates on hold at 4%. However, it could be much more reticent about prospects for future rate cuts given high energy prices.
"We would expect communication to temper the previous rate path's easing bias for this year...given the recent energy price spike," HSBC economists said in a note.
Sweden will hold a bond auction on Wednesday and Norway will publish quarterly borrowing guidance for the second quarter on Friday.
South Africa
South Africa's central bank is expected to keep its main repo rate unchanged at 6.75% in a decision on Thursday. Focus will center on any commentary on the outlook and risks to inflation amid elevated energy prices.
Japan
On Monday, Japan's largest labor union group--the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, also known as Rengo--is scheduled to release preliminary results from the annual 'shunto' wage negotiations. Bank of Japan officials are closely monitoring the outcome as they seek to foster wage growth, stronger consumption and stable, moderate inflation.
Government data due Tuesday are expected to show that nationwide inflationary pressures eased in February, helped by government energy subsidies. Consumer inflation excluding volatile fresh food prices is forecast to have risen 1.7% from a year earlier, according to a Quick poll of economists, compared with January's 2.0% increase.
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to conduct outright purchases across multiple sectors of the government bond market on Wednesday, including securities with maturities of more than three years up to five years, more than 10 years up to 25 years, as well as inflation-indexed bonds. The operations are expected to support the domestic bond market on that day.
The Ministry of Finance will auction about 400 billion yen of 40-year Japanese government bonds on Tuesday. The March issuance will reopen the May 2025 issue, the ministry said. This auction could attract interest from investors such as insurance companies and pension funds due to the extremely high yields which the new 40-year issue will probably offer.
The supply of 40-year JGBs has been tight since issuance was reduced last year, raising the likelihood that supply‑demand factors account for a large share of yield movements, two members of Barclays's FICC Research said in a research report.
"Amid the mix of fiscal expansion expectations and supply‑demand factors, investor demand at the 40y JGB auction will be closely watched," the members added.
China
China enters a quieter week, with investors focusing on industrial profit data for January and February due Friday, and whether it aligns with stronger-than-expected activity data reported earlier this month. "Markets will watch for any improvement from the sluggish 0.6% year-on-year growth rate in 2025," ING economists said.
Industrial profits have declined in recent years due to persistent price wars and an oversupply of manufactured goods. Chinese exports rose nearly 22% in the first two months of the year, even after reaching a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year. Meanwhile, Chinese firms have been expanding aggressively overseas in search of higher margins.
Markets are also watching whether U.S.-China relations remain relatively stable for now, despite U.S. President Trump postponing his planned trip to Beijing, originally scheduled for the end of this month. Bilateral ties have eased in recent months following a truce in their trade war reached in South Korea late last year.
As the conflict in the Middle East drags on, BNP Paribas says China's policy priorities have been reshaped toward financial stability and energy security. Financial market stability now tops the agenda, said Wei Li, Head of Multi-Asset Investments, BNP Paribas Securities (China). Li noted the People's Bank of China has emphasized "firmly maintaining stable operations" across equity, bond, and forex markets.
"China's relative insulation from direct energy shocks-compared to Japan and Korea-provides some policy autonomy, but external volatility necessitates careful calibration between domestic support and external stability," Li said.
Australia/New Zealand
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March 20, 2026 12:41 ET (16:41 GMT)
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