Dell Technologies stunned Wall Street on its fiscal first quarter earnings report, sending the stock up 32% Friday.
That continues a larger rally, with shares now up more than 200% this year. We recommended the stock in October, arguing it had moved beyond personal computers. Indeed, sales of the servers it sells to AI data centers have exploded, just as we had anticipated.
In the first quarter, earnings of $4.86 a share crushed analyst estimates of $2.96 and more than tripled year over year.
Driving the profit: total sales of $43.8 billion, which beat expectations of $35.7 billion, corresponding to a year-over-year increase of 88%. The growth mainly came from the company's $16.1 billion sales of "AI-optimized servers," which is under the firm's Infrastructure Solutions Group, or ISG, segment. Sales of these servers advanced 757% year over year.
This drove the operating profit margin up to 9.7% from 7.1% in the same period last year. It was particularly impressive considering AI servers come with lower gross margins. In this case, the sales growth was just so fast that it outpaced total operating expenses, allowing for profit margins to expand.
Management's $167 billion sales guidance, at the midpoint of the range for fiscal year 2027, was about $24 billion ahead of expectations, according to FactSet. The $17.90 earnings per share outlook was 36% above projections, and partly explains the magnitude of Friday's rally.
Can investors who have been in the stock justify selling some shares now? The answer is yes, seeing as the stock is up more than twofold since we recommended it.
There are also risk factors that continue to linger. Client Solutions Group sales, mostly comprised of personal computers, likely can't sustain the 17% growth it saw in the quarter. Some consumers and businesses probably pulled forward demand that won't show up in coming quarters. UBS analyst David Vogt is even keeping his Neutral rating on the stock, "given the risk from demand pull-in," he writes.
But selling all shares probably isn't wise, either. There's still plenty of potential for more gains beyond the short term. Analysts still expect 19% annual EPS growth through 2028, according to FactSet. That can lift the stock.
Dell trades at just over 22 times the next 12 months' earnings, a tick above the S&P 500's just over 21 times. It may deserve a larger premium, given its growth and rising margins, so a higher stock price can certainly be anticipated in coming years.
Make sure you still own some shares.