It's a huge month for Elon Musk, SpaceX, and capital markets.
The Initial Public Offering of the world's dominant space company is days away. SpaceX is expected to raise record amounts of money and could be valued at $2 trillion or more.
The IPO will create one of the world's most valuable companies. It will also mint millionaires and billionaires seemingly out of thin air, and create the world's first trillionaire. (Although the IPO is ideally only a relatively small bump to existing private market valuations.)
It will be a month to remember. It's only a step in the process of creating an AI megacorporation.
"We still expect Tesla and SpaceX to merge in 2027, Post-IPO," wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives on Sunday, noting the close ties between the two organizations. Tesla owns 19 million shares of SpaceX, and the two companies are collaborating on AI tools and a semiconductor manufacturing facility. He puts the odds at 80%-plus.
"Musk wants to own and control more of the AI ecosystem," added Ives. "And step by step, the holy grail could be combining SpaceX and Tesla in some way to give the connected tissue between both disruptive tech stalwarts [that are] looking to lead the AI Revolution in this next tech chapter for the market."
Both companies are all about AI now. SpaceX merged with xAI in February and wants to put AI data centers in orbit. Musk believes orbital computing will be cost-competitive with Earth-based computing in a couple of years. Tesla, for its part, is investing in AI applications such as robo-taxis and robots.
Ives isn't the only analyst who believes in a combination. Baird analyst Ben Kallo thinks it's possible, too. And bets on prediction market Kalshi put the odds of a 2027 merger north of 50%.
If it happens, it would be the largest merger in history, coming after the largest IPO in history, with both companies led by the richest man in the world.
That's a lot of "ests." For now, investors can focus on the IPO valuation and early trading.