| organization | Latest rating | Latest Target Price | Changes after the press conference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of America | Buy | $370 | Reduced from $380 |
| Better Research | Buy | $370 | Maintain |
| Evercore Contents | Outperform the market | $365 | Maintain |
| JPMorgan Chase | Increase holdings | $340 | Maintain a positive assessment after the meeting Target price not adjusted |
| Jefferies | Underperforming the market | $263.66 | Maintain |
| Oppenheimer | In line with the overall market | Undisclosed | Maintain |
| Goldman Sachs | Undisclosed adjustments | Undisclosed | The post-meeting report primarily updated product and demand judgments. |
Foldable screens have become the core basis for bulls to raise their revenue expectations.
Apple launched its first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo, at its "Surprise and Shine" event, with a starting price of $1,999 for the 256GB version. It also released the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, with starting prices of $1,199 and $1,299 respectively, a $100 increase over the previous generation of models with the same capacity.Melius maintained his "buy" rating on Apple and his $370 price target, and gave the most positive sales forecast in the disclosed report. The agency estimates that, if supply conditions permit, Apple may sell approximately 15 million iPhone Duos in fiscal year 2027, and its current production plan of 10 million units is possible.
According to Melius' calculations, the increase in average selling price brought about by the Duo could drive a cumulative increase of about 20% in iPhone revenue over the next two years, significantly higher than the market's current general expectation of about 9% growth in Apple's iPhone revenue in fiscal year 2027. The agency also expects Apple to release more products later in fiscal year 2027 and continue to expand its Mac market share.
Evercore ISI maintains its "Outperform" rating and $365 price target. The agency believes that with a starting price of $1,999, it is roughly comparable to other high-end foldable phones, and the new product form factor can attract consumer attention and encourage users who are still using older devices more than three years old to upgrade. The A20 Pro chip, variable aperture camera, and improved battery life will also help continue the momentum of the iPhone business.
Oppenheimer maintains its "trade with the market" rating and predicts that the iPhone Duo is expected to become the best-selling foldable phone on the market. However, the agency believes that production capacity and yield may limit initial supply to 8 to 10 million units. This figure is lower than Melius' sales forecast of 15 million units for fiscal year 2027, but the statistical cycles corresponding to the two are not exactly the same.
JPMorgan Chase: Apple "walks a tightrope" between sales volume and profit margin
After the meeting, JPMorgan Chase focused its analysis on Apple's product portfolio and promotional system. The bank believes that Apple is carefully balancing sales volume and profit margins: the price increase for the Pro series is relatively limited, which can alleviate price pressure on consumers, but it is difficult to fully offset the increase in memory and component costs.Apple's new leasing program and trade-in offers can further reduce consumers' short-term expenses on purchasing high-end models. JPMorgan Chase believes that relatively favorable pricing, more flexible purchasing methods, and new AI features are expected to jointly drive strong iPhone revenue growth.
The phased release has also brought new uncertainties. Apple will only launch the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and Duo this fall, leaving the standard iPhone 18 until the following spring. JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee pointed out that this arrangement can highlight the features and configurations of high-end products, encouraging consumers to choose higher-priced models, but Apple's revenue in the December quarter will rely more on the sales and upward sales of high-end models.
JPMorgan Chase maintained its "overweight" rating and $340 price target on Apple in its pre-meeting report on September 1. Existing post-meeting reports do not indicate that the bank has adjusted its rating or target price. Therefore, $340 can only be considered the latest confirmable public target price and cannot be described as a price newly set after the press conference.
Goldman Sachs: Staggered releases help manage costs, and hardware demand is expected to continue.
Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng and his team believe that the new iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods 5 are generally in line with market expectations and are expected to drive continued strong demand for Apple devices.Goldman Sachs is paying close attention to Apple's revised release schedule. The company launched the higher-priced iPhone 18 Pro and Duo in the fall, followed by a lower-priced standard version in the spring of the following year. This can alleviate supply pressure in a single quarter and cope with rising costs of memory and other components through the sale of high-end models.
This strategy could also increase the average selling price of Apple's fall product portfolio, but the actual effect depends on whether consumers are willing to switch to the Pro or Duo in the absence of a new standard version. Goldman Sachs maintained a positive assessment of demand, and its public post-meeting reports did not disclose whether the bank had adjusted its rating, target price, or earnings forecast.
Pricing disagreement: Jefferies focuses on sales volume, while Bank of America is concerned about gross margins.
Jefferies maintains its "underperform" rating and $263.66 target price, making it the most cautious of the institutions that have disclosed this information so far.The agency noted that the 256GB and 512GB versions of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are priced 6% to 8% lower than its original forecast. Despite a 7% to 9% year-on-year price increase for these models, the increase was still lower than Jefferies' expectations. The Duo's starting price of $1,999 is consistent with the agency's previous prediction, but Apple is offering an additional 256GB entry-level version.
Based on this, Jefferies believes that Apple is currently placing greater emphasis on device sales. Relatively modest price increases may support demand, but they will increase gross margin pressure during periods of rising memory and other component costs.
Bank of America is also concerned about profitability, but maintains its "buy" rating. The bank lowered its price target for Apple from $380 to $370 and lowered its earnings per share forecast for calendar year 2027 from $10.32 to $9.98. The new target price continues to adopt a 37-fold forecast P/E, and the adjustment is mainly due to lower expectations for gross profit margin.
Bank of America believes that the lower-than-expected price of the new iPhone may lead to more sales, at the cost of Apple having to bear higher memory and component costs. Its views fall somewhere between Melius and Jefferies: the bank remains optimistic about the product cycle and AI capabilities, but acknowledges that profit margins may be weaker than previously predicted.
AI improves product attractiveness, but its short-term reach remains limited.
Apple showcased its next-generation Apple Intelligence and Siri, which emphasize personal context understanding, screen content recognition, and cross-app operation. Bank of America believes that the new iPhone can run AI models on the device and process more complex requests through Private Cloud Compute, which can protect user data while increasing personalization.JPMorgan Chase sees AI capabilities as one of the factors driving iPhone revenue growth; Goldman Sachs also believes that the new product as a whole can continue the demand for equipment. Many institutions have not yet defined this AI update as a decisive driver of the large-scale replacement cycle.
Oppenheimer pointed out that the new version of Siri is still in the English testing phase and has not yet covered the EU market. The actual sales contribution of AI features still depends on language, region, and subsequent expansion of service capabilities.
Based on the post-meeting opinions of seven institutions, Wall Street has not yet reached a consensus on the direction of earnings revaluation. Melius and Evercore are focusing on the incremental revenue generated by the iPhone Duo, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs acknowledge the product portfolio and demand outlook, Bank of America maintains its buy rating while lowering its earnings forecast, and Jefferies believes that current pricing is insufficient to absorb cost pressures. Whether foldable screens can achieve sales of 8 to 15 million units, and whether revenue from high-end products can cover gross profit margin pressures, will determine the actual contribution of this product cycle to Apple's profits.
