| organization | rating | Target Price | Compared to the closing price of $315.34 | Key Judgments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore Contents | Outperform the market | $365 | +15.7% | New models, AI features, and hardware upgrades are expected to drive phone upgrades. |
| JPMorgan Chase | Buy | $340 | +7.8% | Foldable screen products can expand into the high-end market, but their valuation upside potential is relatively modest. |
| Jeffrey | Underperforming the market | $263.66 | −16.4% | Apple prioritizes maintaining sales volume; some pricing strategies may lower profit margins. |
Evercore bets on new products to stimulate demand for replacement devices
Apple launched the iPhone Duo at its "Surprise and Shine" event on September 9. The 256GB version of this phone starts at $1,999, features a 7.6-inch foldable internal screen, an A20 Pro chip, dual 48MP fusion cameras, and a dual battery system. Pre-orders will begin on October 16, and it will officially go on sale on October 23.Evercore believes that the Duo's starting price is roughly the same as that of its high-end foldable screen competitors, and the new product form factor is expected to attract consumer attention. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, released at the same time, also featured upgrades to the processor, camera, battery life, and Apple Intelligence features, which may encourage consumers who are still using older devices that are more than three years old to upgrade.
The firm maintained its price target of $365, about 15.7% higher than Apple's closing price of $315.34 on September 9, making it one of the more aggressive targets among the three firms. Its assessment focuses on the increased demand brought about by new products and the support of high-end product portfolios for iPhone business revenue.
JPMorgan Chase maintains a buy rating with a relatively restrained target price.
Following the press conference, JPMorgan Chase maintained its "buy" rating and $340 target price on Apple, representing a potential upside of approximately 7.8%. Its target price is lower than Evercore's, but significantly higher than Jefferies', reflecting a positive stance on the new product cycle while maintaining constraints on current valuations.JPMorgan Chase had previously viewed Apple's foldable screen phones as a potential market opportunity of approximately $65 billion and expected such products to contribute tens of millions of units to sales in the medium term. Apple's final starting price of $1,999 was consistent with the agency's previous estimate, which validated its analysis of high-end pricing and market size at the product level.
However, existing publicly available information has not yet fully disclosed JPMorgan Chase's latest forecasts for first-year sales volume, cost structure, and profit margins in its post-meeting report. Therefore, what can be confirmed is its "buy" rating, $340 target price, and existing positive judgment on foldable screen opportunities, and it is not advisable to make further inferences about its specific profit model.
Jefferies is worried that its sales-first strategy will squeeze profit margins.
Jefferies was not surprised by the Duo's starting price of $1,999, but believes that the pricing of the iPhone 18 Pro series reflects Apple's emphasis on sales.The agency estimates that the prices of the 256GB and 512GB versions of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are 6% to 8% lower than its previous forecast, although they are still 7% to 9% higher than the previous generation. The price increases for the 1TB and 2TB versions were largely in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the prices of the iPhone 17 and iPhone Air remain unchanged.
Jefferies believes that more restrained mainstream capacity pricing may stimulate demand, but Apple has failed to fully pass on the costs, which may put pressure on the profit margins of its product portfolio. The agency maintained an "underperform" rating and a target price of $263.66, approximately 16.4% lower than the closing price on the day of the press conference.
Consensus and differences among the three institutions
The three institutions have two main things in common. First, the iPhone Duo opened up a previously untapped ultra-high-end foldable screen market for Apple, and its $1,999 price also provided room to increase the average selling price. Secondly, whether the iPhone 18 Pro series can drive existing users to upgrade will determine the actual intensity of this product cycle.| comparison dimension | Evercore Contents | JPMorgan Chase | Jeffrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duo Market Opportunities | New forms can stimulate demand | Foldable screens correspond to a large potential market. | High selling price may limit product scale |
| Pro Series Pricing | Price increases are beneficial to revenue growth | Positive rating, but target price reflects limited upside potential. | Mainstream capacity prices are lower than expected |
| replacement cycle | Users of older equipment over three years old constitute the demand base | Foldable screens and the new product cycle are expected to support growth. | Demand may be strong, but at the cost of pressure on profit margins. |
| Investment Conclusion | Optimistic about demand and product portfolio | Mildly bullish | Bearish Pricing and Earnings Balance |
Apple's stock closed at $315.34 on September 9, down 0.28% on the day. During the same period, major U.S. stock indexes weakened overall, so this decline cannot be attributed solely to the content of the press conference or analyst ratings.
