To The Moon

Next week marks the start of December, and in overseas markets December is usually a fairly quiet month. When there has already been sufficient volatility in the first eleven months, as long as there is no sudden news in December, institutional traders and fund managers generally trade cautiously in order to avoid overtrading and hurting their year-end performance. This year, volatility has already been large due to global trade and tariff headlines, and with the market also expecting a Fed rate cut in December, price swings in December may be smaller than in November. U.S. equity indices might even enter the Christmas season early, meaning light trading and a lukewarm, directionless market.​Over the weekend, an unverified rumor suddenly spread that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would announce h

Last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll data attracted widespread attention due to severe market disagreements and the need for official data to guide trading decisions.As the first official data released after the U.S. government shutdown ended, although it was delayed by two months, it still provided a baseline for the market's subsequent trend. Before the release, the market had largely withdrawn expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the probability dropping below 50%, which was a main reason for the stock index decline last week. After the data release, Federal Reserve officials voiced mixed views, with both dovish and hawkish statements highlighting significant divergence ahead of the December Fed meeting. Dovish comments raised the odds of a rate cut and boosted sto

The most important event this week is the release of the first nonfarm payrolls report following the shutdown of the U.S. government. This September nonfarm payrolls report was originally scheduled for release in early October, but due to the U.S. government shutdown it has been postponed to 21:30 Beijing time on November 20. At this stage, the market is unable to fully anticipate this report; after all, with a report coming after a 40‑day shutdown, nobody knows the path of the data from here or how much impact it will have on the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cutting process. According to probability data from CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a rate cut versus no cut in December have already narrowed to roughly fifty‑fifty, and the public statements by Federal Reserve officials are also highly d

Following the conclusion of the China-US summit in Busan, South Korea, the trade war between the two countries has effectively been put on pause, providing a "reassuring measure" for the global economy. The 24% retaliatory tariffs have been suspended for one year. This one-year suspension is significant because it coincides with the upcoming US midterm elections, and there remains considerable uncertainty whether the Republican Party, led by Trump, will maintain control over both chambers of Congress, which will directly impact the trajectory of US trade negotiations. From the current perspective, at least for one year the market's worries about China-US trade frictions can greatly ease. With the exception of precious metals, this is generally positive news for other asset classes.The succ

As the end of the month approaches and the November 1 deadline for the US to impose significant tariffs on China looms, the US is increasingly eager to engage in trade talks with China. At this stage, continuing to raise tariffs would harm the US more than benefit it, thus giving China the upper hand in negotiations. Starting this week, information and outcomes from both sides' negotiations will gradually emerge. While a comprehensive deal is unlikely in one round, some progress is expected, which will help revive global trade.China-US Talks to Boost Commodity PricesThe tariff policies previously caused significant disruption in global trade and economics. As negotiations between these two major economies advance, market reactions to tariffs have become less reactive. Although tariff issue

With the U.S. government still shut down and no sign of a deal, the standoff could break duration records and prolong risk sentiment, whose economic impact remains to be seen but is unlikely to fade quickly in the near term. Hopes that the Israel–Gaza conflict might cool were dashed by fresh airstrikes in Gaza over the weekend, underscoring that peace will not be achieved overnight and that safe-haven demand may be repeatedly rekindled, fueling large price swings driven by sentiment rather than trend change. In such an environment, countertrend trading requires extra caution because volatility in a sentiment-led market does not automatically mean the underlying trend has reversed.​Has precious metals topped?Drawing on years of futures-market experience, the piece notes that while every squ

The October time window has arrived again. During the National Day period, we already reminded everyone to pay attention to the special news that often occurs at this time, as it tends to trigger significant volatility in the U.S. stock market. Since the tariff war began, most of the top ten countries and regions trading with the U.S. have reached framework agreements with the United States (though actual implementation details remain unclear). However, the most critical issue—the China-U.S. tariff dispute—has had many positive signals but little substantive progress (such as China restarting purchases of U.S. agricultural products and tariffs on fentanyl). Therefore, when President Trump announced on Friday evening to double tariffs on Chinese goods, it was not too surprising, as the part

The U.S. government has once again fallen into a shutdown, with no signs of resolution so far. Market expectations estimate the shutdown will last between 15 to 29 days. Although this is not the first shutdown the U.S. government has faced, the market remains relatively calm for now. However, the shutdown delays the release of many critical economic data, preventing the Federal Reserve from making informed policy decisions based on the latest economic indicators. This uncertainty clouds the path toward interest rate cuts, leaving the market to continue operating along the current trend.Impact of the Shutdown on U.S. Stock IndexesThe longer the shutdown lasts, the more significant the damage to the U.S. economy will be. This is almost unimaginable in China, given the much broader government

The cheerful National Day holiday arrives next week—wishing a happy break to all! For financial markets, however, long holidays often mean that volatility accumulates, and for domestic markets the post‑holiday session is frequently highly turbulent, making the long breaks—Spring Festival and National Day—the two recurring hurdles investors must face each year. Since 2020, every major Chinese holiday has tended to coincide with outsized, unexpected swings in overseas markets, leading to large gaps at the domestic open and even limit‑up or limit‑down moves. For domestic volatility to intensify, it often implies that overseas markets move one‑way during the National Day break, which could present a decent short‑term trading window for investors focused on overseas assets.Will October nonfarm

The Resumption of Interest Rate Cuts and the Narrowing US-China Interest Rate Differential Continue to Attract Capital Inflows to ChinaThe Federal Reserve has finally started cutting interest rates again after much anticipation. There are various interpretations in the market—some believe the cut was less than expected (not a 50 basis points cut), while others view it positively. Regardless of interpretation, one fact must be clear: the Fed has indeed cut interest rates. With US rates declining, the interest rate differential between China and the US will narrow, unless the People's Bank of China follows with analogous rate cuts. This narrowing differential likely sustains the ongoing appreciation of the renminbi.Renminbi Appreciation Cycle ContinuesBack in April, it was noted that this ye