To The Moon

Markets saw extreme volatility last week. Rumors of AI policy changes sent U.S. stocks plunging the day after Democrats swept the midterms. This dragged most assets lower in tandem. We took profits on our Nasdaq shorts and shorted the euro near its highs. The priority now is understanding what will drive the next phase of trading. $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2612(MNQmain)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ 

Our Nasdaq short position was filled near last week’s rebound high, shortly before the market fell sharply and formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the monthly chart. At this sensitive point in the fourth quarter, is the decline the beginning of a trend reversal or merely another interruption in the slow US equity bull market? $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ $納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ $納斯達克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指數主連 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指數主連 2612(MNQmain)$ The bottom line is that the market may reboun

Despite greater stability in the bond market last week, key market bellwethers such as Bitcoin and gold showed signs of downside breakdowns. US equities also reversed sharply from their highs on the weekly chart. With oil approaching its previous peak and a critical market window drawing closer, investors should remain alert to the risk of a major correction. Markets also faced pressure two weeks ago, although the weakness was not yet broad based. Conditions have since changed as Bitcoin and Ethereum failed to sustain their rallies, while gold extended its decline and broke below $4,000. Risk assets now face renewed pressure from a potential broad based selloff. $比特币(BTC.USD.HKCC)$ 

Last night, I hosted a livestream on Tiger Futures to discuss shifts in the broader U.S. stock market. I covered the U.S. Dollar Index, including its historical patterns and outlook, and shared trading strategies for currencies, crude oil, and gold. If you missed the session, watch the replay here >> 美股指新一輪的上升浪終於開始了？標普的反彈目標位會達到多少？ Below, I have summarized the key market insights and trading views by topic, so those who missed the session can quickly understand my current outlook. First, a brief introduction: Cheng Jun is a professional trader and guest lecturer at CME Group. He previously served as General Manager of Gold Hea

The latest US inflation data had raised concerns that the Federal Reserve could deliver three rate hikes this year. However, recent CME FedWatch data indicate little risk of an additional hike in October. Combined with the continued decline in Treasury yields, this suggests that risk on trading may dominate in the near term. As the fourth quarter approaches, however, any rally in risk assets could prove to be the “last dance.” Even a sharp advance should not be mistaken for a durable trend. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

News over the weekend of an attack on an airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, that caused casualties prompted concern and discussion about what might happen next in the Middle East. Yet oil did not rise at the start of this week as many had expected. After opening slightly higher, it has now fallen by more than 1%. That does not mean oil’s upward path has ended. On the contrary, if the pullback lasts long enough and goes far enough, oil could still retest its highs, especially if accompanied by new U.S. actions. After a substantial rebound and recovery, WTI crude oil repeatedly produced “9” signals on the daily chart and eventually began to pull back around mid-September. Bears are now testing trendline support dating back to July, and a break below it is quite possible. With no new geopolitic

Although last week brought important data, including the nonfarm payrolls report, and some market moves, the more significant development was a change in the foreign exchange market. We had previously believed that the dollar faced the risk of a substantial decline, against the backdrop of what we saw as the weakening U.S. military strength and overall national power demonstrated by its strikes on Iran. But with recent moves in the U.S. bond market proving increasingly difficult to control, there is now reason to suspect that maintaining the dollar’s relative strength would better serve the United States’ broader interests. From a technical perspective, the dollar may also be entering a new phase. The U.S. Dollar Index is an important reference point for assessing the dollar and the broade

The encouraging directional signal from cryptocurrencies during FOMC week did not last long. Although the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high, most risk assets did not confirm the move. Worse still, long-term bond yields also hit new highs, clearly conflicting with the fundamental reasoning behind our earlier expectations. Judging by the credibility of these breakouts, the bond market may prove the more reliable signal if there is no outside intervention. That means we need to be more cautious about the possibility that the turning point could arrive sooner than expected. $CME比特币主连 2610(BTCmain)$ $BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Tr(BIT)$

The much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision came and went last week, with the 25-basis-point move ultimately causing little market disruption. Following the intraday and weekly tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the short-term outlook has become broadly clear: risk assets are likely to maintain their current choppy upward trend over the next one to two months. Whether it is gold, where our order narrowly missed being filled by just a few dollars, or U.S. equity indices, which remain near their highs, pullbacks should continue to offer opportunities to buy in the near term. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2026(MGC2612)$

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>