To The Moon

After a near-vertical rally, gold and silver were finally “punished” last Friday, with both plunging sharply in a single day. Silver, measured from its peak, even suffered a drawdown close to being cut in half. After such a violent round-trip, do ordinary investors still have a viable trading opportunity?​ From a volatility standpoint, the current environment is no longer suitable for the vast majority of retail and traditional precious-metals traders. Moves that used to take a full year can now happen in a single day or within a week. This kind of irrational volatility also means the old stop-loss logic and methods stop working. Whether you try to buy the dip or fade a rebound, there’s a high probability you’ll get stopped out. And if someone dares to skip a stop-loss to avoid getting wic

Last week, the upward momentum in precious metals ignored clear overbought signals on both daily and weekly timeframes. Gold and silver kept hitting fresh all-time highs, with silver firmly breaking above $ 100.This week, gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ has already climbed past the 5,000 mark, potentially opening the door to even more explosive gains.Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ is teetering on the edge of a major long-term trendline breakdown. If current support fails, the dollar could face a depreciation of 10% or more.On the news front, last week should have been dominated by easing geopolitical tensions—but investors weren’t buying it.Notably, the long-standing

Gold and silver gapped higher to fresh record highs, but the weekly time frame is sending mixed signals.Last week, precious metals continued their upward momentum, led by silver. At the start of this week, gold gapped sharply higher to a new all-time high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland. Both fundamental (news-driven) and technical factors are currently supporting further upside. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ From a timing perspective, the "ninth signal" on the weekly chart is notably more pronounced in silver’s price behavior. Historically, during the previous five occurrences of this signal—even when silver was firmly entrenched in a strong bullish trend—it still experienced some degree of correction or sideway

Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

The biggest holiday topic is America's move against Maduro, with most analyses covering directly affected assets. This piece focuses on the hidden agenda: dollar dominance.​Common views hold that the US (under Trump) seeks Venezuela's rich oil and commodity resources. Compared to the 1980s oil wars' brute force, today's tactics lack "martial virtue" but prove more effective.​Yet, as ancient wisdom states, subduing the enemy without fighting is the ultimate strategy—direct intervention signals a loss of control.​(Dollar index performance over the past 60 years)​Latin America's Dollar DependenceFor decades, South America and even Canada's North America have fallen fully under US influence. Through debt and the dollar—the two financial weapons—Latin countries have played the role of beasts of

Key point：Whether gold can post a meaningful new high is a key yardstick for judging whether silver is due for a sharp pullback.Driven by silver’s relentless march to new highs, gold finally showed some movement last week. However, on the one hand, even as futures made new highs, spot prices have not yet kept pace; on the other hand, the futures “new high” itself looked more symbolic than decisive. This reluctance to follow silver is concerning. Although silver has effectively been the true leader since April this year, gold’s historical status means its value still cannot be ignored.​To break its prior historical high, gold futures took two months—far behind silver—and even after the breakout, the contrast between the two is stark. When silver broke out in November, that week produced a s

Year-end is usually a quiet period, when markets thin out and traders take time off—but hold on and get through this week first. For FX traders in particular, after several years of dull price action, the key that could set a major move in motion for 2026 may well be this week.​More specifically, beyond the Bank of Japan’s impending rate hike, close attention also needs to be paid to possible shifts in monetary policy at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. If the major G7 central banks all choose to bring their easing cycles to an end, while the United States—under a new Fed chair in the future—moves against that trend, then the trend driven by rate differentials/spread differentials could be enormous.​The U.S. Dollar Index has already shown signs of weakening across 2025; s

As possibly the most critical week toward year-end, the Fed’s 25‑basis‑point rate cut this week is already common knowledge. This means the market now needs new information to trigger meaningful volatility. Some believe Chair Powell may announce a bond‑buying program, while others expect a highly dovish outlook at the press conference. However, given that Powell is set to step down in May next year, doing nothing may actually be the best option.​From recent market behavior, even though monetary policy no longer dominates as it once did, investors still generally accept the logic that rate cuts equal easier financial conditions, which in turn are positive for markets. Following this line of reasoning, announcing Treasury purchases or signaling a more dovish path for next year would both be

Last week, silver surged to a new high even as gold’s performance lagged significantly, far exceeding my earlier expectations. In hindsight, this trading and manipulation pattern bears resemblance to that of Ethereum/Bitcoin this year: the larger-cap asset first posts consecutive new highs, followed by a rapid rally in the smaller-cap one to hit an all-time peak. While such fundamentals-defying gains have proven short-lived in the crypto market, one should not go against the prevailing trend.Silver recorded a weekly gain of over 10% last week, and the emergence of a new high means there are no technical reference points to rely on. As long as it trades above the 54.4 level, the market is clearly dominated by bulls. Since its 2022 low around 17.4, silver has seen a rally of more than 300% i

The rebound in the crypto market the weekend before last ultimately proved to be nothing more than a flash in the pan. As both Bitcoin and Ethereum have gone on to set new recent lows, the overall rhythm of the market has started to clearly signal the arrival of a new bear market in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, last week’s sharp pullback in silver after making a midweek high continued the sequential logic of the “three-horse carriage”: after the bull trap in precious metals, U.S. equities have become the only fortress that has not yet been breached by the bears. With a large batch of economic data due this week, plus important individual earnings reports, will this be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back?​Among the three drivers of crypto, precious metals, and U.S. equities, the cl