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  ·2021-05-07
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  Significantly lower than expected! U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 266,000 in April
  摘要：美国4月非农就业人口变动 26.6万，预期 99.8万，前值 91.6万；美国4月失业率 6.1%，预期 5.8%，前值 6%。5月7日公布的数据显示，美国4月非农就业大幅不及预期，失业率抬升。
  Significantly lower than expected! U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 266,000 in April
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U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 266,000 in April","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180692702","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美国4月非农就业人口变动 26.6万，预期 99.8万，前值 91.6万；美国4月失业率 6.1%，预期 5.8%，前值 6%。5月7日公布的数据显示，美国4月非农就业大幅不及预期，失业率抬升。","content":"<p>Summary: The U.S. non-farm employment population changed by 266,000 in April, compared with the expected 998,000, and the previous value was 916,000; The U.S. unemployment rate in April was 6.1%, expected to be 5.8%, and the previous value was 6%. Data released on May 7 showed that U.S. non-farm employment in April was significantly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose.</p><p>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 266,000 in April, compared with an expected increase of 998,000, and an increase of 916,000 in the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad4fdfd6cc906c9f66861c649da51a49\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. unemployment rate in April was 6.1%, expected to be 5.8%, and the previous value was 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2755943e54d0cd79b7bfd069be1ddd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the U.S. still has 8.2 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c9539b2aa8c9920ac5fb403961d45\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The labor force participation rate was also disappointing at 61.7%, even if it was higher than the expected 61.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2f847e0f027978a4350d61df857fdbb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some institutions said that the U.S. non-agricultural data recorded 266,000 in April, which was significantly lower than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%, and the shortage of available labor intensified. Employers are finding it difficult to recruit, and this situation is hampering the momentum of the labor market. This means that the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy is correct.</p><p>Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that the employment report verified the Fed's results-oriented policies. I hope we can see employers raise wages, and a lot of financial support is still in the pipeline. He also said that there is \"no sympathy\" for Wall Street critics of Fed policy. Nearly 9 million to 10 million Americans are still unemployed. I firmly believe that a lot of support should be provided. At present, it is still in a \"deep pit\" in returning to full employment.</p><p>Many institutions have previously given optimistic expectations</p><p>It is worth noting that before the release of non-agricultural data, major investment banks were optimistic about the growth of non-agricultural employment population in April, but there was a large gap in expectations among investment banks.</p><p>Analysts also said that the collective forecast error of investment banks can already be recorded in history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96b84d3383be6955f6308c2879f77a6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Specifically, the seasonally adjusted growth rate of non-farm payrolls in the United States in April is expected to be between 850,000 and 1.5 million, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 5.5% and 5.9%, and the annual growth rate of average hourly wages is expected to be between-0.6% and-0.2%.</p><p>Among them, Steve Englander, head of the global foreign exchange research department of Standard Chartered Bank, gave an optimistic forecast of an increase of 1.5 million non-farm payrolls.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Luke Tilley, chief analyst of WilmingtonTrust, said that from a market perspective alone, if the number of employed people continues to increase by 1 million, it will be detrimental to the market. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at foreign exchange broker OANDA, said that if this figure exceeds 1.5 million, it may cause U.S. bond yields to soar, providing some temporary support for the U.S. dollar. Steve Englander, head of global foreign exchange research at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that the Federal Reserve will change its position only when non-agricultural data increases by more than 2 million, and believes that the economy is overheating and beyond acceptable limits.</p><p>Of course, there are also many institutions that give the risk that non-farm payrolls will fall short of expectations. Two of all 79 agencies predict non-farm payrolls to be below 800,000. Earlier, some analysts pointed out that non-farm payrolls below 1 million would lead to a moderate rebound in U.S. bonds, and yields would fall moderately and fall below 1.5%.</p><p><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>After the news was announced, the US Dollar Index fell 40 points to 90.53 in the short term, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell 10BP to 1.48%. Spot gold rose about $10 in the short term to $1,826.43 an ounce. U.S. stock index futures rose sharply in the short term, and the Nasdaq futures rose to 1.3%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Significantly lower than expected! U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 266,000 in April</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSignificantly lower than expected! U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 266,000 in April\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 20:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary: The U.S. non-farm employment population changed by 266,000 in April, compared with the expected 998,000, and the previous value was 916,000; The U.S. unemployment rate in April was 6.1%, expected to be 5.8%, and the previous value was 6%. Data released on May 7 showed that U.S. non-farm employment in April was significantly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose.</p><p>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 266,000 in April, compared with an expected increase of 998,000, and an increase of 916,000 in the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad4fdfd6cc906c9f66861c649da51a49\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. unemployment rate in April was 6.1%, expected to be 5.8%, and the previous value was 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2755943e54d0cd79b7bfd069be1ddd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the U.S. still has 8.2 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c9539b2aa8c9920ac5fb403961d45\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The labor force participation rate was also disappointing at 61.7%, even if it was higher than the expected 61.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2f847e0f027978a4350d61df857fdbb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some institutions said that the U.S. non-agricultural data recorded 266,000 in April, which was significantly lower than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%, and the shortage of available labor intensified. Employers are finding it difficult to recruit, and this situation is hampering the momentum of the labor market. This means that the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy is correct.</p><p>Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that the employment report verified the Fed's results-oriented policies. I hope we can see employers raise wages, and a lot of financial support is still in the pipeline. He also said that there is \"no sympathy\" for Wall Street critics of Fed policy. Nearly 9 million to 10 million Americans are still unemployed. I firmly believe that a lot of support should be provided. At present, it is still in a \"deep pit\" in returning to full employment.</p><p>Many institutions have previously given optimistic expectations</p><p>It is worth noting that before the release of non-agricultural data, major investment banks were optimistic about the growth of non-agricultural employment population in April, but there was a large gap in expectations among investment banks.</p><p>Analysts also said that the collective forecast error of investment banks can already be recorded in history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96b84d3383be6955f6308c2879f77a6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Specifically, the seasonally adjusted growth rate of non-farm payrolls in the United States in April is expected to be between 850,000 and 1.5 million, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 5.5% and 5.9%, and the annual growth rate of average hourly wages is expected to be between-0.6% and-0.2%.</p><p>Among them, Steve Englander, head of the global foreign exchange research department of Standard Chartered Bank, gave an optimistic forecast of an increase of 1.5 million non-farm payrolls.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Luke Tilley, chief analyst of WilmingtonTrust, said that from a market perspective alone, if the number of employed people continues to increase by 1 million, it will be detrimental to the market. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at foreign exchange broker OANDA, said that if this figure exceeds 1.5 million, it may cause U.S. bond yields to soar, providing some temporary support for the U.S. dollar. Steve Englander, head of global foreign exchange research at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that the Federal Reserve will change its position only when non-agricultural data increases by more than 2 million, and believes that the economy is overheating and beyond acceptable limits.</p><p>Of course, there are also many institutions that give the risk that non-farm payrolls will fall short of expectations. Two of all 79 agencies predict non-farm payrolls to be below 800,000. Earlier, some analysts pointed out that non-farm payrolls below 1 million would lead to a moderate rebound in U.S. bonds, and yields would fall moderately and fall below 1.5%.</p><p><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>After the news was announced, the US Dollar Index fell 40 points to 90.53 in the short term, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell 10BP to 1.48%. Spot gold rose about $10 in the short term to $1,826.43 an ounce. U.S. stock index futures rose sharply in the short term, and the Nasdaq futures rose to 1.3%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9963fdf0bdb1101a0e95978b643c3c62","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180692702","content_text":"摘要：美国4月非农就业人口变动 26.6万，预期 99.8万，前值 91.6万；美国4月失业率 6.1%，预期 5.8%，前值 6%。5月7日公布的数据显示，美国4月非农就业大幅不及预期，失业率抬升。美国4月非农就业人口增加26.6万，预期增加99.8万，前值增加91.6万。美国4月失业率6.1%，预期5.8%，前值6%。目前，美国仍然比疫情前少了820万个工作岗位。劳动参与率也令人失望，为61.7％，即便高于预期的61.6％。有机构表示，美国4月非农数据录得26.6万人，大幅不及预期，失业率上升至6.1%，而可用劳动力的短缺加剧。 雇主发现招聘困难，这种状况阻碍了劳动力市场的发展势头。这意味着美联储的超宽松货币政策是正确的。美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策，希望我们能看到雇主们提高工资，许多财政支持仍在酝酿之中。他还表示，对华尔街批评美联储政策的人“没有同情”，有近900万到1000万美国人仍然没有工作，我坚定地认为应提供大量支持，目前在恢复充分就业方面仍处于“深坑”中。此前多家机构给出乐观预期值得注意的是，非农数据公布前，主要投行对4月非农就业人口的增幅预期较为乐观，但各投行之间的预期差距较大。分析人士也表示，此次投行集体预测失误，已经可以记入史册。具体而言，美国4月季调后非农就业人口增幅料介于85万至150万，失业率料介于5.5%-5.9%，平均时薪年率增幅料介于-0.6%至-0.2%。其中，渣打银行全球外汇研究部负责人史蒂夫·英格兰Steve Englander给出了非农增加150万人的乐观预测。值得一提的是，WilmingtonTrust首席分析师LukeTilley称，仅从市场角度来看，若就业人数连续增加100万，将对市场不利。而外汇经纪商OANDA高级市场分析师Edward Moya表示，如果这一数字超过150万，可能导致美债收益率飙升，为美元提供一些暂时支撑。渣打银行全球外汇研究部负责人Steve Englander认为，只有非农数据增加200万以上时，美联储才会改变立场，并认为经济过热，并超出可接受的范围。当然，也有许多机构给出了非农就业低于预期的风险。所有的79家机构中有2家预测非农就业低于80万。此前，有分析人士指出，非农低于100万将导致美债温和反弹，收益率温和下挫并跌破1.5%。市场反应消息公布后，美元指数短线走低40点至90.53，10年期美债收益率下跌10BP至1.48%。现货黄金短线走高约10美元，报1826.43美元/盎司。美股股指期货短线急速拉升，纳指期货涨幅扩大至1.3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}