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ET77
ET77
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2022-10-04
Which is the emerging superpower ?
Alibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?
ThesisThere seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BAB
Alibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?
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ET77
ET77
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2022-10-04
Zero covid will not last forever
Alibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?
ThesisThere seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BAB
Alibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?
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ET77
ET77
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2022-09-21
Good for growt. Now another reason to buy Msft
Microsoft Just Hiked Its Dividend. Who's Next?
KEY POINTSStock markets fell sharply on Tuesday amid fears of Fed tightening.Microsoft increased its
Microsoft Just Hiked Its Dividend. Who's Next?
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ET77
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2022-09-17
Interesting. question is who has the stomachand nerves of steel to hold till the New highs
Dare To Dream: Can QQQ Make New All-Time Highs In 2023?
SummaryYou may have noticed that sentiment is dour at present. And when we say dour, we mean miserab
Dare To Dream: Can QQQ Make New All-Time Highs In 2023?
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ET77
ET77
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2022-09-12
Absolutely true. But it's not new. People are aware but we still social media troll
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ET77
ET77
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2022-09-09
Did these same billionaires sell?
4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying
Wall Street's most successful money managers have used the bear market decline to pile into cutting-edge stocks.
4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying
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ET77
ET77
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2022-09-09
Did these same billionaires sell ?
4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying
Wall Street's most successful money managers have used the bear market decline to pile into cutting-edge stocks.
4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying
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ET77
ET77
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2022-09-08
Yes Netflix should be dropped !
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ET77
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2022-09-07
Can't wait!
What Is Expected at Apple's "Far Out" Fall Event?
Sept 6 (Reuters) - Apple Inc will likely unveil a new line of iPhones, Watch Series 8 and other prod
What Is Expected at Apple's "Far Out" Fall Event?
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ET77
ET77
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2022-09-06
Very true! Difficult on the psychology to be patient. Very patient !
Where Will the Bear Market Bottom? History Offers a Very Clear Clue
Two indicators with a successful history of calling bottoms provide a range of where the S&P 500 could eventually bounce.
Where Will the Bear Market Bottom? History Offers a Very Clear Clue
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is the emerging superpower ? ","listText":"Which is the emerging superpower ? ","text":"Which is the emerging superpower ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912569955","repostId":"2272048859","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2272048859","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664802639,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272048859?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 21:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272048859","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"ThesisThere seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BAB","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Thesis</h2><p>There seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent Holdings (OTCPK: TCEHY) are firmly in value territory. The following two charts provide a quick summary of their key valuation and profitability metrics. I think it is reasonable to benchmark BABA against Amazon (AMZN) given that they share more similarities than differences in their business fundamentals. But it is hard to find a counterpart for Tencent: it's kind of a combination of all the FAAMG businesses.</p><p>Regardless of the differences in their business details, the overall picture from these two charts is so overwhelming. With an FY1 PE in the range of 11x to 14.5x, both BABA and TCEHY are so cheaply valued both in absolute terms and relative terms compared to peers like AMZN or the overall market. Yet, their profitability rivals the best of the stocks in the market. As to be elaborated on later, their ROCE (return on capital employed) is more than 2x higher than the average of the FAAMG group (around 55%), and their R&D yield is almost 2x higher than the FAAMG group.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e16e134e2eae031060c9222fce9fc68\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d144e0b05afcf9211fa28428ef6c0aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p>Based on our discussions with SA readers and other investors lately, the key issue where many bulls and bears disagree is simply this: can value investing work in China? It is a fair and completely logical question. The fact that we can admit they are value stocks does not mean they are good investments, because value investing may not work in China.</p><p>Besides being logical, the question is also well supported by facts. And the chart below provides an example. The chart compares the price returns, i.e. with dividends excluded, from the SSE Composite Index (000001.SS) in the past 5 years against those from the S&P 500. As seen, the SSE Composite Index lost a total of 9.09% while the S&P 500 gained a total of 47.62%. Changing the timeframe does not seem to change the picture too much. For example, when we extend the timeframe to the past 10 years, the SSE Composite Index gained a total of 42.4% - which seems like good news. But the S&P 500 gained more than 169%. So the relative lag is even wider.</p><p>In the remainder of this article, I will provide my two cents on this debate. Also, my opinion is that I don’t see any reason why value investing should not work in China. In my mind, the idea of paying less to buy more is so universal and timeless that I do not see why it would stop working, as to be elaborated on next.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dfb01199cbf518e311fd290945e8272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Yahoo data</p><h2>Historical perspective</h2><p>First, let me provide a piece of counter-evidence to the chart above by going back further in history. The chart below was taken from a lecture Li Lu gave in 2015. Readers unfamiliar with Li Lu can take a look at our recent article and I highly encourage you to read the transcript of this lecture in its entirety.</p><p>The chart compares the performance of China's stock markets versus the U.S. between 1992 and 2015. As seen, the Shanghai Stock Exchange indexes have grown 1406% during this time at an IRR of 12.1%. And the Shenzhen indexes have grown even more, 1864%, during this time at an IRR of 13.4%. Both growths have far outpaced all the major U.S. indexes. To wit, the Shanghai Stock Exchange indexes’ 1406% growth outpaced the S&P 500 by 2.12x, the DOW Jones by 1.73x, and the NASDAQ 100 index by 1.63x.</p><p>It is true that in the past decade, returns from the China stock markets have lagged the U.S. substantially. But bear in mind that A) the U.S. stock markets have suffered its “lost decades” too multiple times in the past; and B) like all performance comparisons, the conclusion often changes when the timeframe changes.</p><p>Next, we will see if history can offer some insights into the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6cba38f13bf629ff8f91fb95cc1159\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Li Lu 2015 lecture</p><h2>Which direction would China stocks go next?</h2><p>After the above macro-level view, now let’s descend and look at the specific stocks. The top panel of the following chart shows the best-performing U.S. stocks since their IPO. And you see all the familiar names on this list. And you cannot help but notice that this list is dominated by “old economy” stocks such as insurance conglomerates such as Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) and Aflac (AFL), chain retailers such as Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT), and consumer staples like V.F. Corp. (VFC) and Altria (MO). The picture is very similar if you make a list of the best-performing China stocks since their IPO on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. The list is also dominated by “old economy” stocks like China Vanke (OTCPK:CHVKF) (OTCPK:CHVKY) (real estate), Gree Electronics (home appliances), Yunnan Biaoyao Medicinal (Healthcare), Kweichow Moutai (liquor), et al.</p><p>The bottom panel of the following chart shows the best-performing stocks by IRR. And now you see the pictures change in two dramatic ways. First, the list is dominated by “new economy” stocks that went IPO primarily around ~2000 such as Baidu (BIDU), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Ctrip (TCOM), and Salesforce (CRM). And secondly, you see that quite a few Chinese companies listed in the U.S. stock market have made the top 10 list such as Baidu and Ctrip.</p><p>Such a historical perspective leads me to the following recognition about BABA and TCEHY: what has happened to them so far is a hiccup along the way an unstoppable secular shift from the old economy to the new economy. The shift is equally unstoppable in both the U.S. and China. And I won’t be surprised to see BABA and TCEHY appearing on the list when we update it 10 years from now.</p><p>Next, I will provide a few business specifics about BABA and TCEHY to support my above view.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dceadf8460e915d7c19021a6b1655c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Li Lu 2015 lecture</p><h2>Both R&D aggressively and enjoy superb yield</h2><p><i>As mentioned in our earlier writings, we do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we are more focused on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&D PROCESS. </i></p><p>So let’s first see how well and sustainably BABA and TCEHY can fund their new R&D efforts. The short answer is: extremely well. The next chart shows the R&D expenses of BABA and TCEHY over the past decade. As seen, both have been consistently investing heavily in R&D. BABA spends on average 8.9% of its total sales on R&D efforts, and TCEHY on average 8.7%. Both levels are consistent with the average of other leaders in the tech space. For example, in the FAAMG group, AMZN spends about 10% of total revenues on its R&D, MSFT about 13%, and AAPL about 6.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27d25c102407cdea27576b5ef4aa016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p>Then the next question is, how effective is their R&D’s process? The next chart shows a variation of Buffett’s $1 test applied to R&D expenses for BABA and TCEHY. The analysis method is detailed in our earlier writings and in summary:</p><ul><li><i>The purpose of any corporate R&D is obviously to generate profit. Therefore, this analysis quantifies the yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&D expenditures. We used the operating cash flow as the measure for profit. </i></li><li><i>Also, most R&D investments do not produce any result in the same year. They typically have a lifetime of a few years. Therefore, this analysis assumes a 3-year average investment cycle for R&D. And as a result, we used the 3-year moving average of operating cash flow to represent this 3-year cycle. </i></li></ul><p>As you can see, the R&D yield for both has been remarkably consistent and also superb. In BABA’s case, its R&D yield has been steady around an average of $3.31 in recent years. TCEHY’s R&D yield of $3.82 is even higher than BABA's. To put things under perspective, let’s compare such levels of R&D yield again to the overachieving FAAMG group, which boasts an average R&D yield of around $2 to $2.5 in recent years. And in particular, BABA’s closest peer in the group, AMZN generates a yield of around $0.9 only.</p><p>Next, we will examine their profitability to fuel their R&D efforts sustainably and also project their growth rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff7c5712303389c002f61b3d37a464f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><h2>Both enjoy superior profitability too</h2><p>As explained in our earlier writings, to us, the most important profitability measure is ROCE (return on capital employed) because:</p><blockquote><i>ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimating the long-term growth rate. Because when we think as long-term business owners, the growth rate is “simply” the product of ROCE and reinvestment rate, i.e., </i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate </i></blockquote><blockquote><i>In this analysis, I consider the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, and C) Research and development expenses are also capitalized. </i></blockquote><p>As you can see from the chart below, both BABA and TCEHY’s ROCE were literally off the chart till about 2019. They both enjoyed a ROCE on average exceeding 150% before 2019. To put things into perspective, AMZN’s ROCE is only about 29% in recent years. And the FAAMG group’s average ROCE has been about 55% in recent years. From this perspective, this is no wonder why the Chinese government had to tighten regulations and curb their profitability in recent years. And as you can see, their profitability did suffer and declined since then. But even after the decline caused by regulations and tax rate changes, their current ROCE is still above 89% for BABA and about 154% for TCEHY.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8502a3508458929a2472fd77abc865f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><h2>Growth prospects and final verdict</h2><p>As such, looking forward, I see both as well-poised to sustainably fund their innovation via their organic profits. Furthermore, as mentioned above, I also see both best poised to benefit from the secular trend of e-commerce and digitalization not only in China but also globally. Currently, 80% of the commerce is still currently conducted offline and eCommerce only accounts for a total of 20% of the total. The remainder of the digital revolution will be unevenly distributed geographically and the Asia-Pacific region will be the epicenter. And leaders like BABA and TCEHY will be the best positioned to benefit as argued in my earlier article:</p><blockquote><i>… the remaining shift will be unevenly distributed and the Asian-Pacific region will be the center of the momentum. As shown in the chart above, world retail e-commerce sales are expected to exceed $7.3 trillion by 2025. The twist is that the Asia-Pacific region will be where most of the growth will be. By 2023, the Western continents will contribute 16% of the total B2B e-commerce volume, while the remaining 84% would come from the non-Western world. And leaders like BABA and TCEHY are best poised to benefit with their scale and reach, government support, cultural compatibility with other Asian-Pacific countries, and also geographic proximity.</i></blockquote><p>Finally, the following table summarizes all the key metrics discussed above. As mentioned early on, my thesis is that I don’t see why value investing would stop working here given the megatrend, their profitability, and their current valuation. To wit, their valuation is so low that they both provide a healthy owner’s earning yield (“OEY”): 5.6% for BABA and 6.3% for TCEHY at their current prices. And note here that I'm using the free cash flow taken from Seeking Alpha as shown in the second chart below to approximate their owners’ earnings. As such, this is a conservative estimate for their OEY, because the true owners' earnings will be free cash flow plus the growth part of their CAPEX expenses.</p><p>For growth, BABA is projected to grow at 8.9% assuming a reinvestment rate of 10% and its current ROCE of 89% (Perpetual growth rate = 89% ROCE * 10% reinvestment rate = 8.9%). And for TCEHY, the growth rate would be even higher, 15.4%, if we assume the same 10% reinvestment rate because of its higher ROCE of 154% (Perpetual growth rate = 154% ROCE * 10% reinvestment rate = 15.4%).</p><p>All told, BABA is projected to provide a 14.5% total return per year (5.6% OEY plus 8.9% growth) and TCEHY 21.7% (6.3% OEY plus 15.4% growth).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f6ca4e324250c4ff76b93a032fb491\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b1dde89c5e7977567245d5f41c4294\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><h2>Risks and final thoughts</h2><p>There are a couple of risks worth mentioning, especially in the near term. Firstly, their ROCE might shrink from the current levels either due to the slowdown of the overall Chinese economy or due to further regulatory changes. Secondly, they may not always be able to find high-margin and high-growth areas to reinvest. The above projections were made under the assumption that A) they always find new opportunities with returns matching their current ROCE, and B) the opportunities are sizable enough to absorb a 10% reinvestment rate. Although under current conditions, even if the growth rates are cut by half due to a combination of A and B, their total annual returns would still be in the double digits.</p><p>To conclude, a key disagreement between many bulls and bears surrounding BABA and TCEHY is not about their valuation or profitability. The key disagreement is simply whether value investing can work in China or not. The question is not only logical but also well supported by recent facts (say the performance of the China stock market, BABA stock prices, and TCEHY prices in the past 5 or 10 years). However, by widening the perspective, my view is that what happened to BABA and TCEHY recently is a hiccup along the way of an unstoppable secular shift from the old economy to the new economy.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-03 21:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544273-alibaba-tencent-value-investing-china><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ThesisThere seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent Holdings (OTCPK: TCEHY) are firmly in value territory. The following two charts ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544273-alibaba-tencent-value-investing-china\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544273-alibaba-tencent-value-investing-china","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272048859","content_text":"ThesisThere seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent Holdings (OTCPK: TCEHY) are firmly in value territory. The following two charts provide a quick summary of their key valuation and profitability metrics. I think it is reasonable to benchmark BABA against Amazon (AMZN) given that they share more similarities than differences in their business fundamentals. But it is hard to find a counterpart for Tencent: it's kind of a combination of all the FAAMG businesses.Regardless of the differences in their business details, the overall picture from these two charts is so overwhelming. With an FY1 PE in the range of 11x to 14.5x, both BABA and TCEHY are so cheaply valued both in absolute terms and relative terms compared to peers like AMZN or the overall market. Yet, their profitability rivals the best of the stocks in the market. As to be elaborated on later, their ROCE (return on capital employed) is more than 2x higher than the average of the FAAMG group (around 55%), and their R&D yield is almost 2x higher than the FAAMG group.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataSource: Seeking Alpha dataBased on our discussions with SA readers and other investors lately, the key issue where many bulls and bears disagree is simply this: can value investing work in China? It is a fair and completely logical question. The fact that we can admit they are value stocks does not mean they are good investments, because value investing may not work in China.Besides being logical, the question is also well supported by facts. And the chart below provides an example. The chart compares the price returns, i.e. with dividends excluded, from the SSE Composite Index (000001.SS) in the past 5 years against those from the S&P 500. As seen, the SSE Composite Index lost a total of 9.09% while the S&P 500 gained a total of 47.62%. Changing the timeframe does not seem to change the picture too much. For example, when we extend the timeframe to the past 10 years, the SSE Composite Index gained a total of 42.4% - which seems like good news. But the S&P 500 gained more than 169%. So the relative lag is even wider.In the remainder of this article, I will provide my two cents on this debate. Also, my opinion is that I don’t see any reason why value investing should not work in China. In my mind, the idea of paying less to buy more is so universal and timeless that I do not see why it would stop working, as to be elaborated on next.Source: Yahoo dataHistorical perspectiveFirst, let me provide a piece of counter-evidence to the chart above by going back further in history. The chart below was taken from a lecture Li Lu gave in 2015. Readers unfamiliar with Li Lu can take a look at our recent article and I highly encourage you to read the transcript of this lecture in its entirety.The chart compares the performance of China's stock markets versus the U.S. between 1992 and 2015. As seen, the Shanghai Stock Exchange indexes have grown 1406% during this time at an IRR of 12.1%. And the Shenzhen indexes have grown even more, 1864%, during this time at an IRR of 13.4%. Both growths have far outpaced all the major U.S. indexes. To wit, the Shanghai Stock Exchange indexes’ 1406% growth outpaced the S&P 500 by 2.12x, the DOW Jones by 1.73x, and the NASDAQ 100 index by 1.63x.It is true that in the past decade, returns from the China stock markets have lagged the U.S. substantially. But bear in mind that A) the U.S. stock markets have suffered its “lost decades” too multiple times in the past; and B) like all performance comparisons, the conclusion often changes when the timeframe changes.Next, we will see if history can offer some insights into the future.Source: Li Lu 2015 lectureWhich direction would China stocks go next?After the above macro-level view, now let’s descend and look at the specific stocks. The top panel of the following chart shows the best-performing U.S. stocks since their IPO. And you see all the familiar names on this list. And you cannot help but notice that this list is dominated by “old economy” stocks such as insurance conglomerates such as Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) and Aflac (AFL), chain retailers such as Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT), and consumer staples like V.F. Corp. (VFC) and Altria (MO). The picture is very similar if you make a list of the best-performing China stocks since their IPO on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. The list is also dominated by “old economy” stocks like China Vanke (OTCPK:CHVKF) (OTCPK:CHVKY) (real estate), Gree Electronics (home appliances), Yunnan Biaoyao Medicinal (Healthcare), Kweichow Moutai (liquor), et al.The bottom panel of the following chart shows the best-performing stocks by IRR. And now you see the pictures change in two dramatic ways. First, the list is dominated by “new economy” stocks that went IPO primarily around ~2000 such as Baidu (BIDU), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Ctrip (TCOM), and Salesforce (CRM). And secondly, you see that quite a few Chinese companies listed in the U.S. stock market have made the top 10 list such as Baidu and Ctrip.Such a historical perspective leads me to the following recognition about BABA and TCEHY: what has happened to them so far is a hiccup along the way an unstoppable secular shift from the old economy to the new economy. The shift is equally unstoppable in both the U.S. and China. And I won’t be surprised to see BABA and TCEHY appearing on the list when we update it 10 years from now.Next, I will provide a few business specifics about BABA and TCEHY to support my above view.Source: Li Lu 2015 lectureBoth R&D aggressively and enjoy superb yieldAs mentioned in our earlier writings, we do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we are more focused on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&D PROCESS. So let’s first see how well and sustainably BABA and TCEHY can fund their new R&D efforts. The short answer is: extremely well. The next chart shows the R&D expenses of BABA and TCEHY over the past decade. As seen, both have been consistently investing heavily in R&D. BABA spends on average 8.9% of its total sales on R&D efforts, and TCEHY on average 8.7%. Both levels are consistent with the average of other leaders in the tech space. For example, in the FAAMG group, AMZN spends about 10% of total revenues on its R&D, MSFT about 13%, and AAPL about 6.1%.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataThen the next question is, how effective is their R&D’s process? The next chart shows a variation of Buffett’s $1 test applied to R&D expenses for BABA and TCEHY. The analysis method is detailed in our earlier writings and in summary:The purpose of any corporate R&D is obviously to generate profit. Therefore, this analysis quantifies the yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&D expenditures. We used the operating cash flow as the measure for profit. Also, most R&D investments do not produce any result in the same year. They typically have a lifetime of a few years. Therefore, this analysis assumes a 3-year average investment cycle for R&D. And as a result, we used the 3-year moving average of operating cash flow to represent this 3-year cycle. As you can see, the R&D yield for both has been remarkably consistent and also superb. In BABA’s case, its R&D yield has been steady around an average of $3.31 in recent years. TCEHY’s R&D yield of $3.82 is even higher than BABA's. To put things under perspective, let’s compare such levels of R&D yield again to the overachieving FAAMG group, which boasts an average R&D yield of around $2 to $2.5 in recent years. And in particular, BABA’s closest peer in the group, AMZN generates a yield of around $0.9 only.Next, we will examine their profitability to fuel their R&D efforts sustainably and also project their growth rates.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataBoth enjoy superior profitability tooAs explained in our earlier writings, to us, the most important profitability measure is ROCE (return on capital employed) because:ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimating the long-term growth rate. Because when we think as long-term business owners, the growth rate is “simply” the product of ROCE and reinvestment rate, i.e., Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate In this analysis, I consider the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, and C) Research and development expenses are also capitalized. As you can see from the chart below, both BABA and TCEHY’s ROCE were literally off the chart till about 2019. They both enjoyed a ROCE on average exceeding 150% before 2019. To put things into perspective, AMZN’s ROCE is only about 29% in recent years. And the FAAMG group’s average ROCE has been about 55% in recent years. From this perspective, this is no wonder why the Chinese government had to tighten regulations and curb their profitability in recent years. And as you can see, their profitability did suffer and declined since then. But even after the decline caused by regulations and tax rate changes, their current ROCE is still above 89% for BABA and about 154% for TCEHY.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataGrowth prospects and final verdictAs such, looking forward, I see both as well-poised to sustainably fund their innovation via their organic profits. Furthermore, as mentioned above, I also see both best poised to benefit from the secular trend of e-commerce and digitalization not only in China but also globally. Currently, 80% of the commerce is still currently conducted offline and eCommerce only accounts for a total of 20% of the total. The remainder of the digital revolution will be unevenly distributed geographically and the Asia-Pacific region will be the epicenter. And leaders like BABA and TCEHY will be the best positioned to benefit as argued in my earlier article:… the remaining shift will be unevenly distributed and the Asian-Pacific region will be the center of the momentum. As shown in the chart above, world retail e-commerce sales are expected to exceed $7.3 trillion by 2025. The twist is that the Asia-Pacific region will be where most of the growth will be. By 2023, the Western continents will contribute 16% of the total B2B e-commerce volume, while the remaining 84% would come from the non-Western world. And leaders like BABA and TCEHY are best poised to benefit with their scale and reach, government support, cultural compatibility with other Asian-Pacific countries, and also geographic proximity.Finally, the following table summarizes all the key metrics discussed above. As mentioned early on, my thesis is that I don’t see why value investing would stop working here given the megatrend, their profitability, and their current valuation. To wit, their valuation is so low that they both provide a healthy owner’s earning yield (“OEY”): 5.6% for BABA and 6.3% for TCEHY at their current prices. And note here that I'm using the free cash flow taken from Seeking Alpha as shown in the second chart below to approximate their owners’ earnings. As such, this is a conservative estimate for their OEY, because the true owners' earnings will be free cash flow plus the growth part of their CAPEX expenses.For growth, BABA is projected to grow at 8.9% assuming a reinvestment rate of 10% and its current ROCE of 89% (Perpetual growth rate = 89% ROCE * 10% reinvestment rate = 8.9%). And for TCEHY, the growth rate would be even higher, 15.4%, if we assume the same 10% reinvestment rate because of its higher ROCE of 154% (Perpetual growth rate = 154% ROCE * 10% reinvestment rate = 15.4%).All told, BABA is projected to provide a 14.5% total return per year (5.6% OEY plus 8.9% growth) and TCEHY 21.7% (6.3% OEY plus 15.4% growth).Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataSource: Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtsThere are a couple of risks worth mentioning, especially in the near term. Firstly, their ROCE might shrink from the current levels either due to the slowdown of the overall Chinese economy or due to further regulatory changes. Secondly, they may not always be able to find high-margin and high-growth areas to reinvest. The above projections were made under the assumption that A) they always find new opportunities with returns matching their current ROCE, and B) the opportunities are sizable enough to absorb a 10% reinvestment rate. Although under current conditions, even if the growth rates are cut by half due to a combination of A and B, their total annual returns would still be in the double digits.To conclude, a key disagreement between many bulls and bears surrounding BABA and TCEHY is not about their valuation or profitability. The key disagreement is simply whether value investing can work in China or not. The question is not only logical but also well supported by recent facts (say the performance of the China stock market, BABA stock prices, and TCEHY prices in the past 5 or 10 years). However, by widening the perspective, my view is that what happened to BABA and TCEHY recently is a hiccup along the way of an unstoppable secular shift from the old economy to the new economy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9,"00700":0.9,"TCEHY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912560276,"gmtCreate":1664853537795,"gmtModify":1676537519596,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zero covid will not last forever ","listText":"Zero covid will not last forever ","text":"Zero covid will not last forever","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912560276","repostId":"2272048859","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2272048859","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664802639,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272048859?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 21:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272048859","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"ThesisThere seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BAB","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Thesis</h2><p>There seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent Holdings (OTCPK: TCEHY) are firmly in value territory. The following two charts provide a quick summary of their key valuation and profitability metrics. I think it is reasonable to benchmark BABA against Amazon (AMZN) given that they share more similarities than differences in their business fundamentals. But it is hard to find a counterpart for Tencent: it's kind of a combination of all the FAAMG businesses.</p><p>Regardless of the differences in their business details, the overall picture from these two charts is so overwhelming. With an FY1 PE in the range of 11x to 14.5x, both BABA and TCEHY are so cheaply valued both in absolute terms and relative terms compared to peers like AMZN or the overall market. Yet, their profitability rivals the best of the stocks in the market. As to be elaborated on later, their ROCE (return on capital employed) is more than 2x higher than the average of the FAAMG group (around 55%), and their R&D yield is almost 2x higher than the FAAMG group.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e16e134e2eae031060c9222fce9fc68\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d144e0b05afcf9211fa28428ef6c0aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p>Based on our discussions with SA readers and other investors lately, the key issue where many bulls and bears disagree is simply this: can value investing work in China? It is a fair and completely logical question. The fact that we can admit they are value stocks does not mean they are good investments, because value investing may not work in China.</p><p>Besides being logical, the question is also well supported by facts. And the chart below provides an example. The chart compares the price returns, i.e. with dividends excluded, from the SSE Composite Index (000001.SS) in the past 5 years against those from the S&P 500. As seen, the SSE Composite Index lost a total of 9.09% while the S&P 500 gained a total of 47.62%. Changing the timeframe does not seem to change the picture too much. For example, when we extend the timeframe to the past 10 years, the SSE Composite Index gained a total of 42.4% - which seems like good news. But the S&P 500 gained more than 169%. So the relative lag is even wider.</p><p>In the remainder of this article, I will provide my two cents on this debate. Also, my opinion is that I don’t see any reason why value investing should not work in China. In my mind, the idea of paying less to buy more is so universal and timeless that I do not see why it would stop working, as to be elaborated on next.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dfb01199cbf518e311fd290945e8272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Yahoo data</p><h2>Historical perspective</h2><p>First, let me provide a piece of counter-evidence to the chart above by going back further in history. The chart below was taken from a lecture Li Lu gave in 2015. Readers unfamiliar with Li Lu can take a look at our recent article and I highly encourage you to read the transcript of this lecture in its entirety.</p><p>The chart compares the performance of China's stock markets versus the U.S. between 1992 and 2015. As seen, the Shanghai Stock Exchange indexes have grown 1406% during this time at an IRR of 12.1%. And the Shenzhen indexes have grown even more, 1864%, during this time at an IRR of 13.4%. Both growths have far outpaced all the major U.S. indexes. To wit, the Shanghai Stock Exchange indexes’ 1406% growth outpaced the S&P 500 by 2.12x, the DOW Jones by 1.73x, and the NASDAQ 100 index by 1.63x.</p><p>It is true that in the past decade, returns from the China stock markets have lagged the U.S. substantially. But bear in mind that A) the U.S. stock markets have suffered its “lost decades” too multiple times in the past; and B) like all performance comparisons, the conclusion often changes when the timeframe changes.</p><p>Next, we will see if history can offer some insights into the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6cba38f13bf629ff8f91fb95cc1159\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Li Lu 2015 lecture</p><h2>Which direction would China stocks go next?</h2><p>After the above macro-level view, now let’s descend and look at the specific stocks. The top panel of the following chart shows the best-performing U.S. stocks since their IPO. And you see all the familiar names on this list. And you cannot help but notice that this list is dominated by “old economy” stocks such as insurance conglomerates such as Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) and Aflac (AFL), chain retailers such as Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT), and consumer staples like V.F. Corp. (VFC) and Altria (MO). The picture is very similar if you make a list of the best-performing China stocks since their IPO on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. The list is also dominated by “old economy” stocks like China Vanke (OTCPK:CHVKF) (OTCPK:CHVKY) (real estate), Gree Electronics (home appliances), Yunnan Biaoyao Medicinal (Healthcare), Kweichow Moutai (liquor), et al.</p><p>The bottom panel of the following chart shows the best-performing stocks by IRR. And now you see the pictures change in two dramatic ways. First, the list is dominated by “new economy” stocks that went IPO primarily around ~2000 such as Baidu (BIDU), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Ctrip (TCOM), and Salesforce (CRM). And secondly, you see that quite a few Chinese companies listed in the U.S. stock market have made the top 10 list such as Baidu and Ctrip.</p><p>Such a historical perspective leads me to the following recognition about BABA and TCEHY: what has happened to them so far is a hiccup along the way an unstoppable secular shift from the old economy to the new economy. The shift is equally unstoppable in both the U.S. and China. And I won’t be surprised to see BABA and TCEHY appearing on the list when we update it 10 years from now.</p><p>Next, I will provide a few business specifics about BABA and TCEHY to support my above view.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dceadf8460e915d7c19021a6b1655c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Li Lu 2015 lecture</p><h2>Both R&D aggressively and enjoy superb yield</h2><p><i>As mentioned in our earlier writings, we do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we are more focused on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&D PROCESS. </i></p><p>So let’s first see how well and sustainably BABA and TCEHY can fund their new R&D efforts. The short answer is: extremely well. The next chart shows the R&D expenses of BABA and TCEHY over the past decade. As seen, both have been consistently investing heavily in R&D. BABA spends on average 8.9% of its total sales on R&D efforts, and TCEHY on average 8.7%. Both levels are consistent with the average of other leaders in the tech space. For example, in the FAAMG group, AMZN spends about 10% of total revenues on its R&D, MSFT about 13%, and AAPL about 6.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27d25c102407cdea27576b5ef4aa016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p>Then the next question is, how effective is their R&D’s process? The next chart shows a variation of Buffett’s $1 test applied to R&D expenses for BABA and TCEHY. The analysis method is detailed in our earlier writings and in summary:</p><ul><li><i>The purpose of any corporate R&D is obviously to generate profit. Therefore, this analysis quantifies the yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&D expenditures. We used the operating cash flow as the measure for profit. </i></li><li><i>Also, most R&D investments do not produce any result in the same year. They typically have a lifetime of a few years. Therefore, this analysis assumes a 3-year average investment cycle for R&D. And as a result, we used the 3-year moving average of operating cash flow to represent this 3-year cycle. </i></li></ul><p>As you can see, the R&D yield for both has been remarkably consistent and also superb. In BABA’s case, its R&D yield has been steady around an average of $3.31 in recent years. TCEHY’s R&D yield of $3.82 is even higher than BABA's. To put things under perspective, let’s compare such levels of R&D yield again to the overachieving FAAMG group, which boasts an average R&D yield of around $2 to $2.5 in recent years. And in particular, BABA’s closest peer in the group, AMZN generates a yield of around $0.9 only.</p><p>Next, we will examine their profitability to fuel their R&D efforts sustainably and also project their growth rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff7c5712303389c002f61b3d37a464f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><h2>Both enjoy superior profitability too</h2><p>As explained in our earlier writings, to us, the most important profitability measure is ROCE (return on capital employed) because:</p><blockquote><i>ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimating the long-term growth rate. Because when we think as long-term business owners, the growth rate is “simply” the product of ROCE and reinvestment rate, i.e., </i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate </i></blockquote><blockquote><i>In this analysis, I consider the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, and C) Research and development expenses are also capitalized. </i></blockquote><p>As you can see from the chart below, both BABA and TCEHY’s ROCE were literally off the chart till about 2019. They both enjoyed a ROCE on average exceeding 150% before 2019. To put things into perspective, AMZN’s ROCE is only about 29% in recent years. And the FAAMG group’s average ROCE has been about 55% in recent years. From this perspective, this is no wonder why the Chinese government had to tighten regulations and curb their profitability in recent years. And as you can see, their profitability did suffer and declined since then. But even after the decline caused by regulations and tax rate changes, their current ROCE is still above 89% for BABA and about 154% for TCEHY.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8502a3508458929a2472fd77abc865f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><h2>Growth prospects and final verdict</h2><p>As such, looking forward, I see both as well-poised to sustainably fund their innovation via their organic profits. Furthermore, as mentioned above, I also see both best poised to benefit from the secular trend of e-commerce and digitalization not only in China but also globally. Currently, 80% of the commerce is still currently conducted offline and eCommerce only accounts for a total of 20% of the total. The remainder of the digital revolution will be unevenly distributed geographically and the Asia-Pacific region will be the epicenter. And leaders like BABA and TCEHY will be the best positioned to benefit as argued in my earlier article:</p><blockquote><i>… the remaining shift will be unevenly distributed and the Asian-Pacific region will be the center of the momentum. As shown in the chart above, world retail e-commerce sales are expected to exceed $7.3 trillion by 2025. The twist is that the Asia-Pacific region will be where most of the growth will be. By 2023, the Western continents will contribute 16% of the total B2B e-commerce volume, while the remaining 84% would come from the non-Western world. And leaders like BABA and TCEHY are best poised to benefit with their scale and reach, government support, cultural compatibility with other Asian-Pacific countries, and also geographic proximity.</i></blockquote><p>Finally, the following table summarizes all the key metrics discussed above. As mentioned early on, my thesis is that I don’t see why value investing would stop working here given the megatrend, their profitability, and their current valuation. To wit, their valuation is so low that they both provide a healthy owner’s earning yield (“OEY”): 5.6% for BABA and 6.3% for TCEHY at their current prices. And note here that I'm using the free cash flow taken from Seeking Alpha as shown in the second chart below to approximate their owners’ earnings. As such, this is a conservative estimate for their OEY, because the true owners' earnings will be free cash flow plus the growth part of their CAPEX expenses.</p><p>For growth, BABA is projected to grow at 8.9% assuming a reinvestment rate of 10% and its current ROCE of 89% (Perpetual growth rate = 89% ROCE * 10% reinvestment rate = 8.9%). And for TCEHY, the growth rate would be even higher, 15.4%, if we assume the same 10% reinvestment rate because of its higher ROCE of 154% (Perpetual growth rate = 154% ROCE * 10% reinvestment rate = 15.4%).</p><p>All told, BABA is projected to provide a 14.5% total return per year (5.6% OEY plus 8.9% growth) and TCEHY 21.7% (6.3% OEY plus 15.4% growth).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f6ca4e324250c4ff76b93a032fb491\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b1dde89c5e7977567245d5f41c4294\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><h2>Risks and final thoughts</h2><p>There are a couple of risks worth mentioning, especially in the near term. Firstly, their ROCE might shrink from the current levels either due to the slowdown of the overall Chinese economy or due to further regulatory changes. Secondly, they may not always be able to find high-margin and high-growth areas to reinvest. The above projections were made under the assumption that A) they always find new opportunities with returns matching their current ROCE, and B) the opportunities are sizable enough to absorb a 10% reinvestment rate. Although under current conditions, even if the growth rates are cut by half due to a combination of A and B, their total annual returns would still be in the double digits.</p><p>To conclude, a key disagreement between many bulls and bears surrounding BABA and TCEHY is not about their valuation or profitability. The key disagreement is simply whether value investing can work in China or not. The question is not only logical but also well supported by recent facts (say the performance of the China stock market, BABA stock prices, and TCEHY prices in the past 5 or 10 years). However, by widening the perspective, my view is that what happened to BABA and TCEHY recently is a hiccup along the way of an unstoppable secular shift from the old economy to the new economy.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba And Tencent: Can Value Investing Work In China?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-03 21:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544273-alibaba-tencent-value-investing-china><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ThesisThere seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent Holdings (OTCPK: TCEHY) are firmly in value territory. The following two charts ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544273-alibaba-tencent-value-investing-china\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544273-alibaba-tencent-value-investing-china","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272048859","content_text":"ThesisThere seems to be little disagreement among bulls and bears that both Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent Holdings (OTCPK: TCEHY) are firmly in value territory. The following two charts provide a quick summary of their key valuation and profitability metrics. I think it is reasonable to benchmark BABA against Amazon (AMZN) given that they share more similarities than differences in their business fundamentals. But it is hard to find a counterpart for Tencent: it's kind of a combination of all the FAAMG businesses.Regardless of the differences in their business details, the overall picture from these two charts is so overwhelming. With an FY1 PE in the range of 11x to 14.5x, both BABA and TCEHY are so cheaply valued both in absolute terms and relative terms compared to peers like AMZN or the overall market. Yet, their profitability rivals the best of the stocks in the market. As to be elaborated on later, their ROCE (return on capital employed) is more than 2x higher than the average of the FAAMG group (around 55%), and their R&D yield is almost 2x higher than the FAAMG group.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataSource: Seeking Alpha dataBased on our discussions with SA readers and other investors lately, the key issue where many bulls and bears disagree is simply this: can value investing work in China? It is a fair and completely logical question. The fact that we can admit they are value stocks does not mean they are good investments, because value investing may not work in China.Besides being logical, the question is also well supported by facts. And the chart below provides an example. The chart compares the price returns, i.e. with dividends excluded, from the SSE Composite Index (000001.SS) in the past 5 years against those from the S&P 500. As seen, the SSE Composite Index lost a total of 9.09% while the S&P 500 gained a total of 47.62%. Changing the timeframe does not seem to change the picture too much. For example, when we extend the timeframe to the past 10 years, the SSE Composite Index gained a total of 42.4% - which seems like good news. But the S&P 500 gained more than 169%. So the relative lag is even wider.In the remainder of this article, I will provide my two cents on this debate. Also, my opinion is that I don’t see any reason why value investing should not work in China. In my mind, the idea of paying less to buy more is so universal and timeless that I do not see why it would stop working, as to be elaborated on next.Source: Yahoo dataHistorical perspectiveFirst, let me provide a piece of counter-evidence to the chart above by going back further in history. The chart below was taken from a lecture Li Lu gave in 2015. Readers unfamiliar with Li Lu can take a look at our recent article and I highly encourage you to read the transcript of this lecture in its entirety.The chart compares the performance of China's stock markets versus the U.S. between 1992 and 2015. As seen, the Shanghai Stock Exchange indexes have grown 1406% during this time at an IRR of 12.1%. And the Shenzhen indexes have grown even more, 1864%, during this time at an IRR of 13.4%. Both growths have far outpaced all the major U.S. indexes. To wit, the Shanghai Stock Exchange indexes’ 1406% growth outpaced the S&P 500 by 2.12x, the DOW Jones by 1.73x, and the NASDAQ 100 index by 1.63x.It is true that in the past decade, returns from the China stock markets have lagged the U.S. substantially. But bear in mind that A) the U.S. stock markets have suffered its “lost decades” too multiple times in the past; and B) like all performance comparisons, the conclusion often changes when the timeframe changes.Next, we will see if history can offer some insights into the future.Source: Li Lu 2015 lectureWhich direction would China stocks go next?After the above macro-level view, now let’s descend and look at the specific stocks. The top panel of the following chart shows the best-performing U.S. stocks since their IPO. And you see all the familiar names on this list. And you cannot help but notice that this list is dominated by “old economy” stocks such as insurance conglomerates such as Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) and Aflac (AFL), chain retailers such as Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT), and consumer staples like V.F. Corp. (VFC) and Altria (MO). The picture is very similar if you make a list of the best-performing China stocks since their IPO on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. The list is also dominated by “old economy” stocks like China Vanke (OTCPK:CHVKF) (OTCPK:CHVKY) (real estate), Gree Electronics (home appliances), Yunnan Biaoyao Medicinal (Healthcare), Kweichow Moutai (liquor), et al.The bottom panel of the following chart shows the best-performing stocks by IRR. And now you see the pictures change in two dramatic ways. First, the list is dominated by “new economy” stocks that went IPO primarily around ~2000 such as Baidu (BIDU), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Ctrip (TCOM), and Salesforce (CRM). And secondly, you see that quite a few Chinese companies listed in the U.S. stock market have made the top 10 list such as Baidu and Ctrip.Such a historical perspective leads me to the following recognition about BABA and TCEHY: what has happened to them so far is a hiccup along the way an unstoppable secular shift from the old economy to the new economy. The shift is equally unstoppable in both the U.S. and China. And I won’t be surprised to see BABA and TCEHY appearing on the list when we update it 10 years from now.Next, I will provide a few business specifics about BABA and TCEHY to support my above view.Source: Li Lu 2015 lectureBoth R&D aggressively and enjoy superb yieldAs mentioned in our earlier writings, we do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we are more focused on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&D PROCESS. So let’s first see how well and sustainably BABA and TCEHY can fund their new R&D efforts. The short answer is: extremely well. The next chart shows the R&D expenses of BABA and TCEHY over the past decade. As seen, both have been consistently investing heavily in R&D. BABA spends on average 8.9% of its total sales on R&D efforts, and TCEHY on average 8.7%. Both levels are consistent with the average of other leaders in the tech space. For example, in the FAAMG group, AMZN spends about 10% of total revenues on its R&D, MSFT about 13%, and AAPL about 6.1%.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataThen the next question is, how effective is their R&D’s process? The next chart shows a variation of Buffett’s $1 test applied to R&D expenses for BABA and TCEHY. The analysis method is detailed in our earlier writings and in summary:The purpose of any corporate R&D is obviously to generate profit. Therefore, this analysis quantifies the yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&D expenditures. We used the operating cash flow as the measure for profit. Also, most R&D investments do not produce any result in the same year. They typically have a lifetime of a few years. Therefore, this analysis assumes a 3-year average investment cycle for R&D. And as a result, we used the 3-year moving average of operating cash flow to represent this 3-year cycle. As you can see, the R&D yield for both has been remarkably consistent and also superb. In BABA’s case, its R&D yield has been steady around an average of $3.31 in recent years. TCEHY’s R&D yield of $3.82 is even higher than BABA's. To put things under perspective, let’s compare such levels of R&D yield again to the overachieving FAAMG group, which boasts an average R&D yield of around $2 to $2.5 in recent years. And in particular, BABA’s closest peer in the group, AMZN generates a yield of around $0.9 only.Next, we will examine their profitability to fuel their R&D efforts sustainably and also project their growth rates.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataBoth enjoy superior profitability tooAs explained in our earlier writings, to us, the most important profitability measure is ROCE (return on capital employed) because:ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimating the long-term growth rate. Because when we think as long-term business owners, the growth rate is “simply” the product of ROCE and reinvestment rate, i.e., Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate In this analysis, I consider the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, and C) Research and development expenses are also capitalized. As you can see from the chart below, both BABA and TCEHY’s ROCE were literally off the chart till about 2019. They both enjoyed a ROCE on average exceeding 150% before 2019. To put things into perspective, AMZN’s ROCE is only about 29% in recent years. And the FAAMG group’s average ROCE has been about 55% in recent years. From this perspective, this is no wonder why the Chinese government had to tighten regulations and curb their profitability in recent years. And as you can see, their profitability did suffer and declined since then. But even after the decline caused by regulations and tax rate changes, their current ROCE is still above 89% for BABA and about 154% for TCEHY.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataGrowth prospects and final verdictAs such, looking forward, I see both as well-poised to sustainably fund their innovation via their organic profits. Furthermore, as mentioned above, I also see both best poised to benefit from the secular trend of e-commerce and digitalization not only in China but also globally. Currently, 80% of the commerce is still currently conducted offline and eCommerce only accounts for a total of 20% of the total. The remainder of the digital revolution will be unevenly distributed geographically and the Asia-Pacific region will be the epicenter. And leaders like BABA and TCEHY will be the best positioned to benefit as argued in my earlier article:… the remaining shift will be unevenly distributed and the Asian-Pacific region will be the center of the momentum. As shown in the chart above, world retail e-commerce sales are expected to exceed $7.3 trillion by 2025. The twist is that the Asia-Pacific region will be where most of the growth will be. By 2023, the Western continents will contribute 16% of the total B2B e-commerce volume, while the remaining 84% would come from the non-Western world. And leaders like BABA and TCEHY are best poised to benefit with their scale and reach, government support, cultural compatibility with other Asian-Pacific countries, and also geographic proximity.Finally, the following table summarizes all the key metrics discussed above. As mentioned early on, my thesis is that I don’t see why value investing would stop working here given the megatrend, their profitability, and their current valuation. To wit, their valuation is so low that they both provide a healthy owner’s earning yield (“OEY”): 5.6% for BABA and 6.3% for TCEHY at their current prices. And note here that I'm using the free cash flow taken from Seeking Alpha as shown in the second chart below to approximate their owners’ earnings. As such, this is a conservative estimate for their OEY, because the true owners' earnings will be free cash flow plus the growth part of their CAPEX expenses.For growth, BABA is projected to grow at 8.9% assuming a reinvestment rate of 10% and its current ROCE of 89% (Perpetual growth rate = 89% ROCE * 10% reinvestment rate = 8.9%). And for TCEHY, the growth rate would be even higher, 15.4%, if we assume the same 10% reinvestment rate because of its higher ROCE of 154% (Perpetual growth rate = 154% ROCE * 10% reinvestment rate = 15.4%).All told, BABA is projected to provide a 14.5% total return per year (5.6% OEY plus 8.9% growth) and TCEHY 21.7% (6.3% OEY plus 15.4% growth).Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataSource: Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtsThere are a couple of risks worth mentioning, especially in the near term. Firstly, their ROCE might shrink from the current levels either due to the slowdown of the overall Chinese economy or due to further regulatory changes. Secondly, they may not always be able to find high-margin and high-growth areas to reinvest. The above projections were made under the assumption that A) they always find new opportunities with returns matching their current ROCE, and B) the opportunities are sizable enough to absorb a 10% reinvestment rate. Although under current conditions, even if the growth rates are cut by half due to a combination of A and B, their total annual returns would still be in the double digits.To conclude, a key disagreement between many bulls and bears surrounding BABA and TCEHY is not about their valuation or profitability. The key disagreement is simply whether value investing can work in China or not. The question is not only logical but also well supported by recent facts (say the performance of the China stock market, BABA stock prices, and TCEHY prices in the past 5 or 10 years). However, by widening the perspective, my view is that what happened to BABA and TCEHY recently is a hiccup along the way of an unstoppable secular shift from the old economy to the new economy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9,"00700":0.9,"TCEHY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919314649,"gmtCreate":1663728716181,"gmtModify":1676537325070,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good for growt. Now another reason to buy Msft ","listText":"Good for growt. Now another reason to buy Msft ","text":"Good for growt. Now another reason to buy Msft","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919314649","repostId":"1147192780","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147192780","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663725409,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147192780?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-21 09:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Just Hiked Its Dividend. Who's Next?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147192780","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"KEY POINTSStock markets fell sharply on Tuesday amid fears of Fed tightening.Microsoft increased its","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSStock markets fell sharply on Tuesday amid fears of Fed tightening.Microsoft increased its quarterly dividend.Investors can look to Emerson Electric, McDonald's, and ExxonMobil for likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/20/microsoft-just-hiked-its-dividend-whos-next/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Just Hiked Its Dividend. Who's Next?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Just Hiked Its Dividend. Who's Next?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-21 09:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/20/microsoft-just-hiked-its-dividend-whos-next/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSStock markets fell sharply on Tuesday amid fears of Fed tightening.Microsoft increased its quarterly dividend.Investors can look to Emerson Electric, McDonald's, and ExxonMobil for likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/20/microsoft-just-hiked-its-dividend-whos-next/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/20/microsoft-just-hiked-its-dividend-whos-next/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147192780","content_text":"KEY POINTSStock markets fell sharply on Tuesday amid fears of Fed tightening.Microsoft increased its quarterly dividend.Investors can look to Emerson Electric, McDonald's, and ExxonMobil for likely dividend increases in the near future, based on past experience.A few candidates typically announce payout increases this time of year.The stock market suffered a setback on Tuesday, giving back gains from Monday's session amid renewed fears about what the Federal Reserve might do when it concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite amounted to roughly 1%, with small-cap stocks taking relatively larger hits than their large-cap counterparts.As the stock market becomes more volatile, investors are increasingly appreciating companies that reward them with predictable and growing streams of dividend income. Today, Microsoft (MSFT -0.85%) announced that it would boost its quarterly payout to shareholders. The tech giant pays a relatively modest yield, but some other dividend-stock stalwarts are also in line to pay more to their investors in the near future. Read on to learn more about Microsoft as well as three other companies that could give similar rewards to shareholders soon.A higher payout for MicrosoftMicrosoft stock didn't do all that well on Tuesday, losing almost 1% in the regular trading session. However, long-term investors will get a little bit more from the software giant in the form of higher dividend checks.Microsoft's board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.68 per share. Shareholders of record as of Nov. 17 will receive the higher payout, which will show up in investors' accounts on Dec. 8. The payout is $0.06 higher than the previous $0.62 per-share quarterly dividend.With a dividend yield of only about 1%, most investors don't think much about Microsoft as a dividend stock. Yet the company has developed a solid track record of boosting dividend payouts over time, with the latest move making 2022 the 20th straight year in which Microsoft has paid more in annual dividends than in the previous year.These companies could be nextMany companies have even longer track records than Microsoft in paying higher dividends. For instance, the following three companies typically announce their dividend increases around this time of year:Emerson Electric has an impressive 65-year track record of paying higher dividends to its shareholders. The company's most recent increase came last November when it announced a 2% boost to $0.515 per share on a quarterly basis.Fast-food giant McDonald's $(MCD)$ made a larger payout boost late last year, increasing quarterly dividends by $0.09 to $1.38 per share. The Golden Arches chain has a 47-year streak of paying higher dividends for long-term shareholders.ExxonMobil has a 40-year dividend-increase streak on the line as it enters the final months of the year. Last year's most recent payout boost added just a single penny to the quarterly payout, with shareholders receiving $0.88 per share each quarter.There's no guarantee that these companies will follow through with dividend increases. Every year, there are often at least a few long-paying dividend stocks that have to make payout cuts or even suspend their payouts temporarily.However, all three of these blue-chip stocks have strong businesses underlying them, and they've had the ability to weather difficult economic times in the past and still give their shareholders higher payouts over time. At a time when many investors are feeling increasingly uncomfortable with how much the prices of their stocks have fallen, the extra confidence of knowing that they can receive a quarterly check from these companies is especially valuable.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937358134,"gmtCreate":1663373947928,"gmtModify":1676537260129,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting. question is who has the stomachand nerves of steel to hold till the New highs ","listText":"Interesting. question is who has the stomachand nerves of steel to hold till the New highs ","text":"Interesting. question is who has the stomachand nerves of steel to hold till the New highs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937358134","repostId":"1193038112","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193038112","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663373059,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193038112?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dare To Dream: Can QQQ Make New All-Time Highs In 2023?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193038112","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryYou may have noticed that sentiment is dour at present. And when we say dour, we mean miserab","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>You may have noticed that sentiment is dour at present. And when we say dour, we mean miserable. Utterly despondent, in fact.</li><li>We don't share this view at all. We believe that securities prices run to their own tune, usually ahead of rather than in response to the news.</li><li>And we think the June low in the QQQ was the low, which means we think QQQ can make a new high in 2023.</li><li>We explain all below and lay out price targets, together with stop-loss levels just in case this idea does prove as nuts as it sounds.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ffbc2edd68801fb0645bd8cc8e54714\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AntonioSolano/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Voodoo Nonsense - Ignore!</b></p><p>Technical analysis is like democracy. It's the worst tool anyone can think of for the job, except for all the other tools that anyone has yet thought of. Let's take the Nasdaq-100 index, in its QQQ ETF format. If you could construct any coherent narrative as to why the ETF fell to the level it did in the COVID crisis, ran up to the level it did in 2021, and then corrected to the level it has in 2022, we're all ears. We don't mean "why did it sell off hard into COVID" or "why did it turn weak come 2022?" We mean, why did it find support and resistance at those specific levels?</p><p>If you use fairly standard Elliott Wave and Fibonacci measures, the QQQ confirms almost perfectly to textbook levels since the 2018 lows. And because the pattern fits so well, in the larger and smaller degree, one has to ask oneself... are the Doom-Mongers of Fin Twit really correct that it's all going to zero?</p><p>Let's first of all take a look at the move from the Q4 2018 lows to the Q4 2021 highs. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c9120d3593db409e5b620370d28decd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>QQQ Chart (TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>The first thing to note is the start point. Right at the end of Q4 2018 the Fed had tried to normalize monetary policy by raising rates and planning to shrink, not grow, the size of its balance sheet. This caused a market tantrum such that most all of 2018's gains in the S&P or the Nasdaq were wiped out. The bottom came in right at the end of the year. We can call that Point Zero.</p><p>QQQ then rose in a Wave 1 up, peaking at around $237 in February 2020, a fairly quick gain of 65% in the prior fourteen months or so. The chat at the time was that this was nuts and couldn't last.</p><p>Yikes, Freak Out!!</p><p>Now a very interesting thing happens. COVID hits and naturally enough the world freaks out as do investors. Rather surprisingly however, it turns out one can model a "yikes freak out" reaction in the market. "Yikes freak out" usually means a Wave 2 down, a fast and deep drop. And very often a Wave 2 down finds support at the 61.8% or 78.6% retracement of the prior Wave 1 up. The Covid lows in the QQQ were<i>precisely</i>a 78.6% drop from the Wave 1 highs back towards Point Zero. Likely not a coincidence.</p><p><b>Now The Long Road To Happiness</b></p><p>After a "Yikes Freak Out" Wave 2 comes a Wave 3 which are typically powerful upward moves. Which is what happens to the Qs coming out of COVID. You know all the reasons <i>why</i> it is said this happens - Fed helicopter money, crypto bros, work from home tech refresh cycle, all that - but put that aside for a moment because, really, who cares <i>why</i> it happened. Let's <i>measure</i> what happened. The chart above shows this. Wave 3s typically terminate at a minimum of the 100% extension of the prior Wave 1, and more commonly the 161.8% extension. More bullish levels are the 261.8%, 361.8%, and so on. (By the way, if Fibonacci extensions are new to you, fear not. Whilst the theory behind<i>why</i>Fibonacci numbers matter is complicated, the math involved in calculating how they apply to stock prices is not. The 161.8% extension of Wave 1 is calculated thus: take the stock price movement in Wave 1, multiply it by 1.618, and add that to the stock price at the Wave 2 low, hey presto, that's the 161.8% extension of Wave 1). Anyway. You can see that at the most recent all-time high, QQQ hit the 261.8% (=2.618) extension of Wave 1 almost to the dollar. Again, probably not a coincidence.</p><p><b>Then Comes Boiling The Frog</b></p><p>2022 comes and here we go with a Wave 4 down. Psychologically, emotionally, and potentially financially, Wave 4s are tough. Most people have become accustomed to the occasional shock and awe flash crash Wave 2. The panic is over as soon as it began. Also due to the mass psychology involved, which usually translates as<i>someone has to do something</i>, very often, someone does in fact do something - COVID stimulus being a prime example. But in a slow-boil Wave 4, the panic never really rises. Instead it's a stages-of-grief thing where if you're not careful you end up accepting and moving on. Which means you toss your account overboard and start a new day. Except you don't, because that's usually when the market rebounds and then you are too stunned to do anything about it, fearful that you will just buy into the next leg down. Actually the first half of 2022 saw Big Money do a fine job of work in this regard. If you look at how one measure of volatility, the Vix index, has moved vs. the panics of 2020 and indeed the Fed-tightening fear in 2018, it has barely moved at all - just traded sideways in a channel.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae14b1ca4f0561e9aa095aa32de983e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Vix Chart (TradingView, Cestrian "Analysis")</span></p><p>There are many reasons for this but chief amongst them has been the institutional use of out-of-the-money index puts that have been rolled out and down through the first half, slow and steady, no freaking out, just dragging down the indices and their proxy ETFs as market makers have had to sell those indices in order to hedge their positions (having sold puts to institutions, market makers are then long the market, so have to sell underlying securities in order to get back to neutral).</p><p>And this wave 4 right here is what has caused the it's-all-over mentality to take hold, in our view.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a7ab589c32698e50b1eb8755902c70\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>QQQ Chart (TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>It's been a deeper-than-expected correction for sure. With a 78.6% retraced Wave 2 you might normally expect a 38.2% retraced Wave 4 - that's based on nothing other than pattern recognition. The 38.2% retracement of Wave 3 was $315, which is where the QQQ set up camp for a while in February this year, before head-faking to the upside then digging for victory once more. Thus far the Wave 4 looks to have bottomed in June, between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of Wave 3.</p><p><b>Wait, Isn't This A Bullish Article?</b></p><p>So, the title of this article is, "Dare To Dream". Looks more like a nightmare for 2022. Or does it? Let's zoom in to see what has happened since those June lows.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/941554bdc300eb4dad173f18f77aeafc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>QQQ Chart (TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>The waves & Fibonacci approach works in smaller and larger degrees. One cannot say that it's truly fractal in nature, as is often claimed, since there's no perfectly-repeating pattern in smaller and smaller degrees, but we can say that because the extensions and retracements are merely emotional and/or algorithmic reactions to the most recent price movements, they are self-referential in nature and that is why they scale up and down - because a larger degree move is relative to an earlier larger degree move, and a smaller degree move is relative to an earlier smaller degree move.</p><p>Look at the 5-waves up from the June lows. The Fib levels work nicely - a 78.6% retrace Wave ii, a 223.6% Wave iii extension of Wave i, and we'll see what happens with September options expiry (that's today at the time of writing) does to the Wave iv. But so far there is every chance we then get a smaller degree Wave v up (once September opex is done, a wall of puts will expire and market-maker short hedges will need to be covered, which can drive a move upwards).</p><p>And if that Wave v happens, and for it to be a Wave v it must peak above the Wave iii high - then that's ongoing confirmation that the June lows were the lows. We aren't there yet. We need to see that Wave v exceed QQQ $335ish. But if we do? Well, if that Wave v does arrive, the bear argument - that we're in a downwards channel that started last November and has featured only countertrend rallies since then - starts to look a lot weaker. Not necessarily wrong, anything can change, but weaker.</p><p>Then the outlook can be like ... this. A final flourish in the larger degree to complete a 5-wave cycle up off of those 2018 lows.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/915355750cdd99c2cfca3f27e8bcdada\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>QQQ Chart (TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>Now, we don't think this is a Wen Moon situation. We can make a technical argument that QQQ will peak in a Wave 5 in the 500s, 550s even, and maybe it will. But for the record and until facts disturb our opinion, we think that QQQ will make a new high in 2023, maybe early 2024. And then put in a Yikes Wave 2 in the even-larger-degree. Because those 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 waves up you see from 2018 to (maybe) 2023-4? They combine to form probably a Wave 1 up. Which means a Yikes Wave 2 next. Or, maybe they combine to form a Wave 3 up. In which case it's a Doom N Gloom Forever Wave 4 next. Either way, down. In our<i>Growth Investor Pro</i>service we lean bullish right now but much of our work positioning for possible upside ahead is done - we have our stocks and ETFs set up with stop ideas and accumulation price zones and price targets and all that. More of our time right now is being spent on ... how do we make big from the move down that comes after the next high. And for that? Stay tuned.</p><p>Oh and by the way. Want to play QQQ to the long side? Consider this approach.</p><p>1 - Wait to see if QQQ moves up above $288, which is the 0.786 retrace of the smaller-degree Wave iv above.</p><p>2 - If no, wait. (This is like one of those early multi-user dungeon games. "Time passes ....")</p><p>3 - If yes, consider buying with a stop-loss a little below that $288 level ... $270-274 makes sense as it's below the Wave ii low so if it gets there, something has gone wrong.</p><p>4 - Consider accumulating a position in the range of $290-$300, slowly over time, buying on red days not green days.</p><p>5 - Consider holding to see if we can make it to $335 - the potential Wave v high. That's >10% free money if so. At which point you can set a trailing stop or move your stops up or similar and then just decide how much of an ulcer you want to develop whilst waiting to see if QQQ can indeed beat the 2021 high.</p><p>Good luck to all!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dare To Dream: Can QQQ Make New All-Time Highs In 2023?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDare To Dream: Can QQQ Make New All-Time Highs In 2023?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 08:04 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541458-can-qqq-make-new-all-time-highs-in-2023><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryYou may have noticed that sentiment is dour at present. And when we say dour, we mean miserable. Utterly despondent, in fact.We don't share this view at all. We believe that securities prices ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541458-can-qqq-make-new-all-time-highs-in-2023\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541458-can-qqq-make-new-all-time-highs-in-2023","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193038112","content_text":"SummaryYou may have noticed that sentiment is dour at present. And when we say dour, we mean miserable. Utterly despondent, in fact.We don't share this view at all. We believe that securities prices run to their own tune, usually ahead of rather than in response to the news.And we think the June low in the QQQ was the low, which means we think QQQ can make a new high in 2023.We explain all below and lay out price targets, together with stop-loss levels just in case this idea does prove as nuts as it sounds.AntonioSolano/iStock via Getty ImagesVoodoo Nonsense - Ignore!Technical analysis is like democracy. It's the worst tool anyone can think of for the job, except for all the other tools that anyone has yet thought of. Let's take the Nasdaq-100 index, in its QQQ ETF format. If you could construct any coherent narrative as to why the ETF fell to the level it did in the COVID crisis, ran up to the level it did in 2021, and then corrected to the level it has in 2022, we're all ears. We don't mean \"why did it sell off hard into COVID\" or \"why did it turn weak come 2022?\" We mean, why did it find support and resistance at those specific levels?If you use fairly standard Elliott Wave and Fibonacci measures, the QQQ confirms almost perfectly to textbook levels since the 2018 lows. And because the pattern fits so well, in the larger and smaller degree, one has to ask oneself... are the Doom-Mongers of Fin Twit really correct that it's all going to zero?Let's first of all take a look at the move from the Q4 2018 lows to the Q4 2021 highs. QQQ Chart (TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)The first thing to note is the start point. Right at the end of Q4 2018 the Fed had tried to normalize monetary policy by raising rates and planning to shrink, not grow, the size of its balance sheet. This caused a market tantrum such that most all of 2018's gains in the S&P or the Nasdaq were wiped out. The bottom came in right at the end of the year. We can call that Point Zero.QQQ then rose in a Wave 1 up, peaking at around $237 in February 2020, a fairly quick gain of 65% in the prior fourteen months or so. The chat at the time was that this was nuts and couldn't last.Yikes, Freak Out!!Now a very interesting thing happens. COVID hits and naturally enough the world freaks out as do investors. Rather surprisingly however, it turns out one can model a \"yikes freak out\" reaction in the market. \"Yikes freak out\" usually means a Wave 2 down, a fast and deep drop. And very often a Wave 2 down finds support at the 61.8% or 78.6% retracement of the prior Wave 1 up. The Covid lows in the QQQ werepreciselya 78.6% drop from the Wave 1 highs back towards Point Zero. Likely not a coincidence.Now The Long Road To HappinessAfter a \"Yikes Freak Out\" Wave 2 comes a Wave 3 which are typically powerful upward moves. Which is what happens to the Qs coming out of COVID. You know all the reasons why it is said this happens - Fed helicopter money, crypto bros, work from home tech refresh cycle, all that - but put that aside for a moment because, really, who cares why it happened. Let's measure what happened. The chart above shows this. Wave 3s typically terminate at a minimum of the 100% extension of the prior Wave 1, and more commonly the 161.8% extension. More bullish levels are the 261.8%, 361.8%, and so on. (By the way, if Fibonacci extensions are new to you, fear not. Whilst the theory behindwhyFibonacci numbers matter is complicated, the math involved in calculating how they apply to stock prices is not. The 161.8% extension of Wave 1 is calculated thus: take the stock price movement in Wave 1, multiply it by 1.618, and add that to the stock price at the Wave 2 low, hey presto, that's the 161.8% extension of Wave 1). Anyway. You can see that at the most recent all-time high, QQQ hit the 261.8% (=2.618) extension of Wave 1 almost to the dollar. Again, probably not a coincidence.Then Comes Boiling The Frog2022 comes and here we go with a Wave 4 down. Psychologically, emotionally, and potentially financially, Wave 4s are tough. Most people have become accustomed to the occasional shock and awe flash crash Wave 2. The panic is over as soon as it began. Also due to the mass psychology involved, which usually translates assomeone has to do something, very often, someone does in fact do something - COVID stimulus being a prime example. But in a slow-boil Wave 4, the panic never really rises. Instead it's a stages-of-grief thing where if you're not careful you end up accepting and moving on. Which means you toss your account overboard and start a new day. Except you don't, because that's usually when the market rebounds and then you are too stunned to do anything about it, fearful that you will just buy into the next leg down. Actually the first half of 2022 saw Big Money do a fine job of work in this regard. If you look at how one measure of volatility, the Vix index, has moved vs. the panics of 2020 and indeed the Fed-tightening fear in 2018, it has barely moved at all - just traded sideways in a channel.Vix Chart (TradingView, Cestrian \"Analysis\")There are many reasons for this but chief amongst them has been the institutional use of out-of-the-money index puts that have been rolled out and down through the first half, slow and steady, no freaking out, just dragging down the indices and their proxy ETFs as market makers have had to sell those indices in order to hedge their positions (having sold puts to institutions, market makers are then long the market, so have to sell underlying securities in order to get back to neutral).And this wave 4 right here is what has caused the it's-all-over mentality to take hold, in our view.QQQ Chart (TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)It's been a deeper-than-expected correction for sure. With a 78.6% retraced Wave 2 you might normally expect a 38.2% retraced Wave 4 - that's based on nothing other than pattern recognition. The 38.2% retracement of Wave 3 was $315, which is where the QQQ set up camp for a while in February this year, before head-faking to the upside then digging for victory once more. Thus far the Wave 4 looks to have bottomed in June, between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of Wave 3.Wait, Isn't This A Bullish Article?So, the title of this article is, \"Dare To Dream\". Looks more like a nightmare for 2022. Or does it? Let's zoom in to see what has happened since those June lows.QQQ Chart (TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)The waves & Fibonacci approach works in smaller and larger degrees. One cannot say that it's truly fractal in nature, as is often claimed, since there's no perfectly-repeating pattern in smaller and smaller degrees, but we can say that because the extensions and retracements are merely emotional and/or algorithmic reactions to the most recent price movements, they are self-referential in nature and that is why they scale up and down - because a larger degree move is relative to an earlier larger degree move, and a smaller degree move is relative to an earlier smaller degree move.Look at the 5-waves up from the June lows. The Fib levels work nicely - a 78.6% retrace Wave ii, a 223.6% Wave iii extension of Wave i, and we'll see what happens with September options expiry (that's today at the time of writing) does to the Wave iv. But so far there is every chance we then get a smaller degree Wave v up (once September opex is done, a wall of puts will expire and market-maker short hedges will need to be covered, which can drive a move upwards).And if that Wave v happens, and for it to be a Wave v it must peak above the Wave iii high - then that's ongoing confirmation that the June lows were the lows. We aren't there yet. We need to see that Wave v exceed QQQ $335ish. But if we do? Well, if that Wave v does arrive, the bear argument - that we're in a downwards channel that started last November and has featured only countertrend rallies since then - starts to look a lot weaker. Not necessarily wrong, anything can change, but weaker.Then the outlook can be like ... this. A final flourish in the larger degree to complete a 5-wave cycle up off of those 2018 lows.QQQ Chart (TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)Now, we don't think this is a Wen Moon situation. We can make a technical argument that QQQ will peak in a Wave 5 in the 500s, 550s even, and maybe it will. But for the record and until facts disturb our opinion, we think that QQQ will make a new high in 2023, maybe early 2024. And then put in a Yikes Wave 2 in the even-larger-degree. Because those 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 waves up you see from 2018 to (maybe) 2023-4? They combine to form probably a Wave 1 up. Which means a Yikes Wave 2 next. Or, maybe they combine to form a Wave 3 up. In which case it's a Doom N Gloom Forever Wave 4 next. Either way, down. In ourGrowth Investor Proservice we lean bullish right now but much of our work positioning for possible upside ahead is done - we have our stocks and ETFs set up with stop ideas and accumulation price zones and price targets and all that. More of our time right now is being spent on ... how do we make big from the move down that comes after the next high. And for that? Stay tuned.Oh and by the way. Want to play QQQ to the long side? Consider this approach.1 - Wait to see if QQQ moves up above $288, which is the 0.786 retrace of the smaller-degree Wave iv above.2 - If no, wait. (This is like one of those early multi-user dungeon games. \"Time passes ....\")3 - If yes, consider buying with a stop-loss a little below that $288 level ... $270-274 makes sense as it's below the Wave ii low so if it gets there, something has gone wrong.4 - Consider accumulating a position in the range of $290-$300, slowly over time, buying on red days not green days.5 - Consider holding to see if we can make it to $335 - the potential Wave v high. That's >10% free money if so. At which point you can set a trailing stop or move your stops up or similar and then just decide how much of an ulcer you want to develop whilst waiting to see if QQQ can indeed beat the 2021 high.Good luck to all!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932757978,"gmtCreate":1662996412094,"gmtModify":1676537179301,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Absolutely true. But it's not new. People are aware but we still social media troll ","listText":"Absolutely true. But it's not new. People are aware but we still social media troll ","text":"Absolutely true. But it's not new. People are aware but we still social media troll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932757978","repostId":"2266139430","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936382182,"gmtCreate":1662706708547,"gmtModify":1676537124050,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Did these same billionaires sell? ","listText":"Did these same billionaires sell? ","text":"Did these same billionaires sell?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936382182","repostId":"2265894852","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265894852","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662675844,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265894852?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 06:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265894852","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Wall Street's most successful money managers have used the bear market decline to pile into cutting-edge stocks.","content":"<div>\n<p>There's no beating about the bush: It's been a trying year for investors. The combination of historically high inflation, a weakening U.S. economy, and heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/4-tech-stocks-billionaires-cant-stop-buying/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 06:24 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/4-tech-stocks-billionaires-cant-stop-buying/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There's no beating about the bush: It's been a trying year for investors. The combination of historically high inflation, a weakening U.S. economy, and heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/4-tech-stocks-billionaires-cant-stop-buying/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/4-tech-stocks-billionaires-cant-stop-buying/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265894852","content_text":"There's no beating about the bush: It's been a trying year for investors. The combination of historically high inflation, a weakening U.S. economy, and heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine war), pushed both the broad-based S&P 500 and technology-centric Nasdaq Composite firmly into a bear market.However, you wouldn't know the stock market is suffering through one of its worst years in decades by the actions of Wall Street's most-successful investors. Instead of retreating to the sideline, billionaire money managers have been actively buying stocks as the market dips. In particular, billionaires have really taken a liking to tech stocks focused on forward-looking innovation.What follows are four next-generation tech stocks billionaires simply can't stop buying.Image source: Getty Images.Upstart HoldingsThe first innovative powerhouse that at least one billionaire money manager can't stop purchasing is cloud-based lending platform Upstart Holdings. During the second quarter, billionaire Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management acquired roughly 2.36 million shares.What puts Upstart on the leading edge of its industry is its use of artificial intelligence (AI) to vet loan applications. Rather than rely on the traditional (and slow) loan-vetting process, Upstart leans on predictive technologies and previously vetted loan data to approve and fully automate nearly three-quarters of all loans its processes. This saves the six dozen financial institutions Upstart has partnered with time and money.However, what stands out even more about Upstart is the broader pool of applicants being approved. The typical loan applicant to gain approval with Upstart has a lower average credit score than the those approved with the traditional vetting process. Yet, delinquency rates between Upstart's AI-based process and the traditional vetting process have been similar. The implication here is that Upstart can expand the potential pool of borrowers for banks and credit unions without adversely impacting their credit-risk profile.Laffont is likely also encouraged by Upstart's push into new verticals. Whereas it's spent years processing personal loan applications, it's begun handling auto loan and small business loan originations. On a combined basis, auto and small business loans are more than 10X the market size of personal loan originations.SnowflakeThe second next-generation tech stock billionaires can't seem to get enough of is cloud data-warehousing company Snowflake. The June-ended quarter saw billionaire Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies add more than 1.25 million shares to his fund's existing position (which now stands at more than 2 million shares).The answer to \"Why Snowflake?\" can be explained by the company's unique operating model. For instance, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses are shifting data into the cloud at an accelerated rate. However, sharing that data across competing cloud infrastructure platforms can be challenging. Snowflake's platform resolves this by building its infrastructure atop the leading cloud-service providers. In other words, Snowflake clients can seamlessly share and move data with ease.What's more, Snowflake has shunned the extremely common practice among cloud providers of pushing subscriptions. Instead, Snowflake offers something of a pay-as-you-go service that charges based on the amount of data stored and Snowflake Compute Credits used. This provides more cost transparency for the company's clients than a one-size-fits-all subscription package.Arguably the biggest obstacle for Snowflake is the company's own valuation. Even after a significant share price haircut, the company is valued at 27 times Wall Street's projected sales of roughly $2 billion in fiscal 2023. But if Snowflake can make good on its march to $10 billion in net sales by fiscal 2029 (calendar year 2028), billionaires like Simons may be glad they paid a premium to hold a stake in Snowflake.Image source: Getty Images.Palantir TechnologiesThe third cutting-edge tech stock billionaires can't stop buying is data mining company Palantir Technologies. During the second quarter, billionaire Israel Englander's Millennium Management bought nearly 1.9 million shares of Palantir stock. To boot, Simons' Renaissance Technologies more than doubled its stake by purchasing close to 15.69 million shares.Billionaires love Palantir for the simple reason that its technology at scale hasn't been duplicated by any other company. Put in another context, Palantir has no direct competitors that can replace the services it's offering to federal governments and predominantly large-scale businesses.The company's Gotham operating system is an AI-driven platform designed to help federal governments gather data, plan missions, accelerate decision-making. Large contract wins from the U.S. government tied to Gotham explain why Palantir has sustained a 30% or greater sales growth rate for the past couple of years.However, Gotham has a limited ceiling. That's because Palantir's management won't extend the Gotham operating system to certain governments, such as China. Over the long run, the company's Foundry software is its golden ticket to sustained double-digit growth. Foundry helps businesses streamline their operations by making sense of big data. In the June-ended quarter, Palantir's commercial customer count more than tripled to 119 from the year-ago quarter. In short, Foundry is in the very early innings of its growth phase.CrowdStrike HoldingsThe fourth and final next-generation tech stock billionaires can't stop buying is cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike Holdings. Billionaire Steve Cohen of Point72 Asset Management purchased over 819,000 shares of CrowdStrike during the second quarter, which ultimately boosted Point72's stake to 955,234 shares.What makes CrowdStrike tick is the company's AI-powered Falcon security platform. Falcon oversees in the neighborhood of 1 trillion events on a daily basis, which allows the platform to become more adept at recognizing and responding to potential end-user threats. While CrowdStrike doesn't offer the cheapest cybersecurity solutions, the fact that its gross retention rate is hovering around 98% clearly implies that Falcon is effective.Something else to consider about CrowdStrike, and the cybersecurity industry as a whole, is that cybersecurity has evolved into a basic necessity service. No matter how poorly the stock market or U.S. economy perform, bad actors don't take a day off from trying to steal enterprise or customer data. This creates a base level of demand for a company like CrowdStrike.But the best thing of all about CrowdStrike might just be its ability to encourage its existing clients to spend more. In a span of five years, the percentage of customers with four or more cloud-module subscriptions catapulted from 9% to more than 70%. Having existing customers purchase additional services is CrowdStrike's golden ticket to subscription gross margins of around 80%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRWD":0.9,"PLTR":0.9,"SNOW":0.9,"UPST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936382989,"gmtCreate":1662706671942,"gmtModify":1676537124042,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Did these same billionaires sell ? ","listText":"Did these same billionaires sell ? ","text":"Did these same billionaires sell ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936382989","repostId":"2265894852","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265894852","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662675844,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265894852?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 06:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265894852","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Wall Street's most successful money managers have used the bear market decline to pile into cutting-edge stocks.","content":"<div>\n<p>There's no beating about the bush: It's been a trying year for investors. The combination of historically high inflation, a weakening U.S. economy, and heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/4-tech-stocks-billionaires-cant-stop-buying/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Next-Generation Tech Stocks Billionaires Can't Stop Buying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 06:24 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/4-tech-stocks-billionaires-cant-stop-buying/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There's no beating about the bush: It's been a trying year for investors. The combination of historically high inflation, a weakening U.S. economy, and heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/4-tech-stocks-billionaires-cant-stop-buying/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/4-tech-stocks-billionaires-cant-stop-buying/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265894852","content_text":"There's no beating about the bush: It's been a trying year for investors. The combination of historically high inflation, a weakening U.S. economy, and heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine war), pushed both the broad-based S&P 500 and technology-centric Nasdaq Composite firmly into a bear market.However, you wouldn't know the stock market is suffering through one of its worst years in decades by the actions of Wall Street's most-successful investors. Instead of retreating to the sideline, billionaire money managers have been actively buying stocks as the market dips. In particular, billionaires have really taken a liking to tech stocks focused on forward-looking innovation.What follows are four next-generation tech stocks billionaires simply can't stop buying.Image source: Getty Images.Upstart HoldingsThe first innovative powerhouse that at least one billionaire money manager can't stop purchasing is cloud-based lending platform Upstart Holdings. During the second quarter, billionaire Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management acquired roughly 2.36 million shares.What puts Upstart on the leading edge of its industry is its use of artificial intelligence (AI) to vet loan applications. Rather than rely on the traditional (and slow) loan-vetting process, Upstart leans on predictive technologies and previously vetted loan data to approve and fully automate nearly three-quarters of all loans its processes. This saves the six dozen financial institutions Upstart has partnered with time and money.However, what stands out even more about Upstart is the broader pool of applicants being approved. The typical loan applicant to gain approval with Upstart has a lower average credit score than the those approved with the traditional vetting process. Yet, delinquency rates between Upstart's AI-based process and the traditional vetting process have been similar. The implication here is that Upstart can expand the potential pool of borrowers for banks and credit unions without adversely impacting their credit-risk profile.Laffont is likely also encouraged by Upstart's push into new verticals. Whereas it's spent years processing personal loan applications, it's begun handling auto loan and small business loan originations. On a combined basis, auto and small business loans are more than 10X the market size of personal loan originations.SnowflakeThe second next-generation tech stock billionaires can't seem to get enough of is cloud data-warehousing company Snowflake. The June-ended quarter saw billionaire Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies add more than 1.25 million shares to his fund's existing position (which now stands at more than 2 million shares).The answer to \"Why Snowflake?\" can be explained by the company's unique operating model. For instance, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses are shifting data into the cloud at an accelerated rate. However, sharing that data across competing cloud infrastructure platforms can be challenging. Snowflake's platform resolves this by building its infrastructure atop the leading cloud-service providers. In other words, Snowflake clients can seamlessly share and move data with ease.What's more, Snowflake has shunned the extremely common practice among cloud providers of pushing subscriptions. Instead, Snowflake offers something of a pay-as-you-go service that charges based on the amount of data stored and Snowflake Compute Credits used. This provides more cost transparency for the company's clients than a one-size-fits-all subscription package.Arguably the biggest obstacle for Snowflake is the company's own valuation. Even after a significant share price haircut, the company is valued at 27 times Wall Street's projected sales of roughly $2 billion in fiscal 2023. But if Snowflake can make good on its march to $10 billion in net sales by fiscal 2029 (calendar year 2028), billionaires like Simons may be glad they paid a premium to hold a stake in Snowflake.Image source: Getty Images.Palantir TechnologiesThe third cutting-edge tech stock billionaires can't stop buying is data mining company Palantir Technologies. During the second quarter, billionaire Israel Englander's Millennium Management bought nearly 1.9 million shares of Palantir stock. To boot, Simons' Renaissance Technologies more than doubled its stake by purchasing close to 15.69 million shares.Billionaires love Palantir for the simple reason that its technology at scale hasn't been duplicated by any other company. Put in another context, Palantir has no direct competitors that can replace the services it's offering to federal governments and predominantly large-scale businesses.The company's Gotham operating system is an AI-driven platform designed to help federal governments gather data, plan missions, accelerate decision-making. Large contract wins from the U.S. government tied to Gotham explain why Palantir has sustained a 30% or greater sales growth rate for the past couple of years.However, Gotham has a limited ceiling. That's because Palantir's management won't extend the Gotham operating system to certain governments, such as China. Over the long run, the company's Foundry software is its golden ticket to sustained double-digit growth. Foundry helps businesses streamline their operations by making sense of big data. In the June-ended quarter, Palantir's commercial customer count more than tripled to 119 from the year-ago quarter. In short, Foundry is in the very early innings of its growth phase.CrowdStrike HoldingsThe fourth and final next-generation tech stock billionaires can't stop buying is cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike Holdings. Billionaire Steve Cohen of Point72 Asset Management purchased over 819,000 shares of CrowdStrike during the second quarter, which ultimately boosted Point72's stake to 955,234 shares.What makes CrowdStrike tick is the company's AI-powered Falcon security platform. Falcon oversees in the neighborhood of 1 trillion events on a daily basis, which allows the platform to become more adept at recognizing and responding to potential end-user threats. While CrowdStrike doesn't offer the cheapest cybersecurity solutions, the fact that its gross retention rate is hovering around 98% clearly implies that Falcon is effective.Something else to consider about CrowdStrike, and the cybersecurity industry as a whole, is that cybersecurity has evolved into a basic necessity service. No matter how poorly the stock market or U.S. economy perform, bad actors don't take a day off from trying to steal enterprise or customer data. This creates a base level of demand for a company like CrowdStrike.But the best thing of all about CrowdStrike might just be its ability to encourage its existing clients to spend more. In a span of five years, the percentage of customers with four or more cloud-module subscriptions catapulted from 9% to more than 70%. Having existing customers purchase additional services is CrowdStrike's golden ticket to subscription gross margins of around 80%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRWD":0.9,"PLTR":0.9,"SNOW":0.9,"UPST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938372150,"gmtCreate":1662566745271,"gmtModify":1676537090031,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes Netflix should be dropped ! ","listText":"Yes Netflix should be dropped ! ","text":"Yes Netflix should be dropped !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938372150","repostId":"1192523766","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938090148,"gmtCreate":1662517672984,"gmtModify":1676537078793,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can't wait! ","listText":"Can't wait! ","text":"Can't wait!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938090148","repostId":"2265403013","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265403013","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1662521565,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265403013?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-07 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Is Expected at Apple's \"Far Out\" Fall Event?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265403013","media":"Reuters","summary":"Sept 6 (Reuters) - Apple Inc will likely unveil a new line of iPhones, Watch Series 8 and other prod","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Sept 6 (Reuters) - Apple Inc will likely unveil a new line of iPhones, Watch Series 8 and other products on Wednesday at an event awaited by Wall Street and its legions of customers.</p><p>The event, "Far Out", will begin at 1700 GMT at the Steve Jobs Theater in Apple's headquarters in Cupertino, California. It is the company's first indoor event since the pandemic.</p><p>Based on reports, here are some of the expected announcements:</p><p><b>IPHONE 14</b></p><p>Apple usually launches new iPhones at the September event. The latest device is expected to include updates to the camera, storage and design, as well as satellite network connectivity.</p><p>The "mini" version of the iPhone may be discontinued, according to reports.</p><p>Pricing and bundling options for Apple's flagship product will be watched closely as decades-high inflation batters demand for all, but the most premium smartphones.</p><p>"Apple could choose to increase the price of the Pro models and leave the lower end models unchanged," BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan said.</p><p><b>SATELLITE NETWORK CONNECTIVITY</b></p><p>Satellite network connectivity was one of the test features for iPhone 14 before mass production, said TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, known for his accurate predictions related to Apple's product launches.</p><p>The possible feature would allow users to send emergency text messages in situations where they are without a network.</p><p><b>APPLE WATCH</b></p><p>The Watch Series 8 is expected have a bigger display and more health features, including a body-temperature sensor.</p><p>The company may also launch a Pro version of the Watch.</p><p><b>AIRPODS PRO 2</b></p><p>The new model will likely feature enhanced sound quality and more sensors. Its case is expected to be water and sweat resistant, with support for magsafe wireless charging.</p><p>Some reports suggest the case could have a type-C port.</p><p><b>AUGMENTED REALITY/VIRTUAL REALITY HEADSETS?</b></p><p>There has been curiosity among investors and fans about a mixed reality headset, but analysts do not expect the product to be launched until next year because of ongoing supply chain bottlenecks.</p><p>"There could be some clues around a new AR/VR product although unlikely to be launched before 2023," BofA Securities' Mohan said.</p><p>Here is a list of Apple launches at previous events:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Past Events</td><td>Date</td><td>Products launched</td></tr><tr><td>Worldwide Developer's Conference</td><td>June 6, 2022</td><td>MacBooks with M2 chip</td></tr><tr><td>"Peak Performance"</td><td>March 8, 2022</td><td>iPhone SE, iPad Air, Mac Studio, Studio Display,</td></tr><tr><td>"Unleashed"</td><td>Oct. 18, 2021</td><td>MacBook Pro with M1 Pro and M1 Max chips, AirPods 3rd Gen</td></tr><tr><td>"California Streaming"</td><td>Sept. 14, 2021</td><td>iPhone 13 series, iPad with A13, iPad Mini with A15, Apple Watch Series 7</td></tr><tr><td>"Spring Loaded"</td><td>April 20, 2021</td><td>iPad Pro with M1, AirTag, iPhone 12 and 12 mini in purple</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Also Read:</b> <b>Apple iPhone 14 event: A price hike is expected, but will there be ‘one more thing’?</b> Source: MarketWatch</p><p>Apple Inc.’s coming iPhone 14 lineup might not bring too many new features, but there could be one big change in store.</p><p>After holding steady on iPhone prices a year ago, some analysts expect that Apple will increase the price of its iPhone 14 Pro models this year amid camera, chip, and design enhancements—as well as lingering pressure from supply costs and the strong U.S. dollar. Amid the highest inflation rates in decades, there have been concerns about consumers growing more cost-conscious — especially lower-wage earners — but Apple is expected to keep its standard iPhone models at the same starting price while increasing the base $999 and $1,199 prices on its iPhone Pro and Pro Max.</p><p>“While the base iPhone will stay at the same price we believe a $100 price increase on the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max is likely in store given component price increases as well as added functionality on this new release,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a recent note to clients.</p><p>The company is expected to debut the new iPhone family at a Wednesday event that will kick off at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Apple’s smartphones are its biggest business by far, bringing in more than $162 billion through three quarters of the company’s fiscal year, more than 57% of Apple’s revenue total.</p><p>But The planned iPhone 14 debut comes amid uncertainty about how smartphone demand will hold up in the macroeconomic climate. IDC recently projected a 6.5% decline in global smartphone shipments this year, after shipments underperformed their estimates while declining for four quarters in a row. iPhone demand seems to have held up better than the overall market, however, and Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said on the company’s last earnings call that he hadn’t noticed “obvious evidence of macroeconomic impact” on the iPhone.</p><p>Other than the price, the biggest news out of Apple’s event could be what isn’t mentioned, or gets taken away. Few observers expect Apple to show off its highly anticipated next product category, a headset, and Apple could be saying goodbye to the iPhone Mini and the infamous “notch.”</p><p>Apple is expected to do away with the mini version of its base iPhone, and it could add a 6.7-inch configuration for the first time, according to Bloomberg News. Also, five years after Apple introduced a “notch” at the top of its iPhone X model that wasn’t exactly a fan favorite, Bloomberg reports it could finally be going away with the iPhone 14 update in favor of “hole-punch and pill-shaped cutouts for the front camera and Face ID sensors.”</p><p>A Steve Jobs-worthy “One More Thing” that details Apple’s next big invention has long been absent from iPhone events, but his successor might have something up his sleeve that fits the bill. Apple has been developing a headset that is expected to integrate long-gestating mixed-reality technology, which Cook has long called “a big idea like the smartphone.” Experts expect it to reach consumers in 2023 at the earliest, but few analysts believe its first appearance will be at Wednesday’s event, even as Meta Platforms Inc. prepares to reveal its next-generation VR tech.</p><p>Given a lack of chatter about the device more recently, it’s perhaps unlikely that Apple is ready to trot the product out for viewing in September—or else the silence means that Apple has done a good job of keeping the wraps on its “one more thing.” Bloomberg reported in May that the company “aimed to unveil the headset as early as the end of this year or sometime next year, with a consumer release planned for 2023.”</p><p>Those holding out for foldable and flip phones like the models Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. debuted a few weeks back will likely have to keep waiting for that sort of launch at Apple, but iPhone fans should expect a faster processor and the end of a much-mocked design element.</p><p>There could be a long awaited announcement of satellite connection technology for iPhones, which would allow people to communicate even while far off the beaten path. The move was expected last year and was not announced, and a similar setup is happening into this year, with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo writing this week that “Apple had completed hardware tests for this feature,” but “whether iPhone 14 will offer satellite communication service depends on whether Apple and operators can settle the business model.”</p><p>The iPhone Pro models are expected to get the majority of the upgrades, relative to the regular iPhone models. Bloomberg News has reported that Apple plans to introduce a 48-megapixel camera, a faster chip, and better battery life for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. MacRumors notes that the enhanced camera would let more light pass through the lens, something that could allow for better image quality, including when shooting with the company’s Portrait Mode feature.</p><p>The iPhone 14 Pro could also feature the new A16 chip, which MacRumors has said may help the company power the new camera, as well as the always-on display that some Apple watchers are expecting to finally see on the latest model. While Apple is thought to be planning chip upgrades for the Pro models, 9to5Mac expects that the company could stick with the same A15 chip for the base iPhone 14 line that was used in the iPhone 13 family.</p><p>Also expected at the Wednesday event is an update to the Apple Watch lineup. Bloomberg reports that Apple is planning to introduce an Apple Watch SE featuring a faster chip, an Apple Watch Series 8 containing a body-temperature sensor, and a pro-level model. Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said that the hypothetical Apple Watch Pro could bring “more battery life, a larger screen, and new fitness features.”</p><p>Apple’s iPhone event comes a week earlier in September than its one last year, suggesting to Evercore’s Daryanani that the company might also make the phones available for purchase sooner. For investors, that means Apple’s September quarter could feature an extra week of iPhone sales relative to last year’s.</p><p>Apple stock has declined 10.9% so far this year, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average — which counts Apple among its 30 components — has declined 12.9% and the S&P 500 index has fallen 16.8%.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Is Expected at Apple's \"Far Out\" Fall Event?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Is Expected at Apple's \"Far Out\" Fall Event?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-07 11:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Sept 6 (Reuters) - Apple Inc will likely unveil a new line of iPhones, Watch Series 8 and other products on Wednesday at an event awaited by Wall Street and its legions of customers.</p><p>The event, "Far Out", will begin at 1700 GMT at the Steve Jobs Theater in Apple's headquarters in Cupertino, California. It is the company's first indoor event since the pandemic.</p><p>Based on reports, here are some of the expected announcements:</p><p><b>IPHONE 14</b></p><p>Apple usually launches new iPhones at the September event. The latest device is expected to include updates to the camera, storage and design, as well as satellite network connectivity.</p><p>The "mini" version of the iPhone may be discontinued, according to reports.</p><p>Pricing and bundling options for Apple's flagship product will be watched closely as decades-high inflation batters demand for all, but the most premium smartphones.</p><p>"Apple could choose to increase the price of the Pro models and leave the lower end models unchanged," BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan said.</p><p><b>SATELLITE NETWORK CONNECTIVITY</b></p><p>Satellite network connectivity was one of the test features for iPhone 14 before mass production, said TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, known for his accurate predictions related to Apple's product launches.</p><p>The possible feature would allow users to send emergency text messages in situations where they are without a network.</p><p><b>APPLE WATCH</b></p><p>The Watch Series 8 is expected have a bigger display and more health features, including a body-temperature sensor.</p><p>The company may also launch a Pro version of the Watch.</p><p><b>AIRPODS PRO 2</b></p><p>The new model will likely feature enhanced sound quality and more sensors. Its case is expected to be water and sweat resistant, with support for magsafe wireless charging.</p><p>Some reports suggest the case could have a type-C port.</p><p><b>AUGMENTED REALITY/VIRTUAL REALITY HEADSETS?</b></p><p>There has been curiosity among investors and fans about a mixed reality headset, but analysts do not expect the product to be launched until next year because of ongoing supply chain bottlenecks.</p><p>"There could be some clues around a new AR/VR product although unlikely to be launched before 2023," BofA Securities' Mohan said.</p><p>Here is a list of Apple launches at previous events:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Past Events</td><td>Date</td><td>Products launched</td></tr><tr><td>Worldwide Developer's Conference</td><td>June 6, 2022</td><td>MacBooks with M2 chip</td></tr><tr><td>"Peak Performance"</td><td>March 8, 2022</td><td>iPhone SE, iPad Air, Mac Studio, Studio Display,</td></tr><tr><td>"Unleashed"</td><td>Oct. 18, 2021</td><td>MacBook Pro with M1 Pro and M1 Max chips, AirPods 3rd Gen</td></tr><tr><td>"California Streaming"</td><td>Sept. 14, 2021</td><td>iPhone 13 series, iPad with A13, iPad Mini with A15, Apple Watch Series 7</td></tr><tr><td>"Spring Loaded"</td><td>April 20, 2021</td><td>iPad Pro with M1, AirTag, iPhone 12 and 12 mini in purple</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Also Read:</b> <b>Apple iPhone 14 event: A price hike is expected, but will there be ‘one more thing’?</b> Source: MarketWatch</p><p>Apple Inc.’s coming iPhone 14 lineup might not bring too many new features, but there could be one big change in store.</p><p>After holding steady on iPhone prices a year ago, some analysts expect that Apple will increase the price of its iPhone 14 Pro models this year amid camera, chip, and design enhancements—as well as lingering pressure from supply costs and the strong U.S. dollar. Amid the highest inflation rates in decades, there have been concerns about consumers growing more cost-conscious — especially lower-wage earners — but Apple is expected to keep its standard iPhone models at the same starting price while increasing the base $999 and $1,199 prices on its iPhone Pro and Pro Max.</p><p>“While the base iPhone will stay at the same price we believe a $100 price increase on the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max is likely in store given component price increases as well as added functionality on this new release,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a recent note to clients.</p><p>The company is expected to debut the new iPhone family at a Wednesday event that will kick off at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Apple’s smartphones are its biggest business by far, bringing in more than $162 billion through three quarters of the company’s fiscal year, more than 57% of Apple’s revenue total.</p><p>But The planned iPhone 14 debut comes amid uncertainty about how smartphone demand will hold up in the macroeconomic climate. IDC recently projected a 6.5% decline in global smartphone shipments this year, after shipments underperformed their estimates while declining for four quarters in a row. iPhone demand seems to have held up better than the overall market, however, and Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said on the company’s last earnings call that he hadn’t noticed “obvious evidence of macroeconomic impact” on the iPhone.</p><p>Other than the price, the biggest news out of Apple’s event could be what isn’t mentioned, or gets taken away. Few observers expect Apple to show off its highly anticipated next product category, a headset, and Apple could be saying goodbye to the iPhone Mini and the infamous “notch.”</p><p>Apple is expected to do away with the mini version of its base iPhone, and it could add a 6.7-inch configuration for the first time, according to Bloomberg News. Also, five years after Apple introduced a “notch” at the top of its iPhone X model that wasn’t exactly a fan favorite, Bloomberg reports it could finally be going away with the iPhone 14 update in favor of “hole-punch and pill-shaped cutouts for the front camera and Face ID sensors.”</p><p>A Steve Jobs-worthy “One More Thing” that details Apple’s next big invention has long been absent from iPhone events, but his successor might have something up his sleeve that fits the bill. Apple has been developing a headset that is expected to integrate long-gestating mixed-reality technology, which Cook has long called “a big idea like the smartphone.” Experts expect it to reach consumers in 2023 at the earliest, but few analysts believe its first appearance will be at Wednesday’s event, even as Meta Platforms Inc. prepares to reveal its next-generation VR tech.</p><p>Given a lack of chatter about the device more recently, it’s perhaps unlikely that Apple is ready to trot the product out for viewing in September—or else the silence means that Apple has done a good job of keeping the wraps on its “one more thing.” Bloomberg reported in May that the company “aimed to unveil the headset as early as the end of this year or sometime next year, with a consumer release planned for 2023.”</p><p>Those holding out for foldable and flip phones like the models Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. debuted a few weeks back will likely have to keep waiting for that sort of launch at Apple, but iPhone fans should expect a faster processor and the end of a much-mocked design element.</p><p>There could be a long awaited announcement of satellite connection technology for iPhones, which would allow people to communicate even while far off the beaten path. The move was expected last year and was not announced, and a similar setup is happening into this year, with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo writing this week that “Apple had completed hardware tests for this feature,” but “whether iPhone 14 will offer satellite communication service depends on whether Apple and operators can settle the business model.”</p><p>The iPhone Pro models are expected to get the majority of the upgrades, relative to the regular iPhone models. Bloomberg News has reported that Apple plans to introduce a 48-megapixel camera, a faster chip, and better battery life for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. MacRumors notes that the enhanced camera would let more light pass through the lens, something that could allow for better image quality, including when shooting with the company’s Portrait Mode feature.</p><p>The iPhone 14 Pro could also feature the new A16 chip, which MacRumors has said may help the company power the new camera, as well as the always-on display that some Apple watchers are expecting to finally see on the latest model. While Apple is thought to be planning chip upgrades for the Pro models, 9to5Mac expects that the company could stick with the same A15 chip for the base iPhone 14 line that was used in the iPhone 13 family.</p><p>Also expected at the Wednesday event is an update to the Apple Watch lineup. Bloomberg reports that Apple is planning to introduce an Apple Watch SE featuring a faster chip, an Apple Watch Series 8 containing a body-temperature sensor, and a pro-level model. Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said that the hypothetical Apple Watch Pro could bring “more battery life, a larger screen, and new fitness features.”</p><p>Apple’s iPhone event comes a week earlier in September than its one last year, suggesting to Evercore’s Daryanani that the company might also make the phones available for purchase sooner. For investors, that means Apple’s September quarter could feature an extra week of iPhone sales relative to last year’s.</p><p>Apple stock has declined 10.9% so far this year, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average — which counts Apple among its 30 components — has declined 12.9% and the S&P 500 index has fallen 16.8%.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265403013","content_text":"Sept 6 (Reuters) - Apple Inc will likely unveil a new line of iPhones, Watch Series 8 and other products on Wednesday at an event awaited by Wall Street and its legions of customers.The event, \"Far Out\", will begin at 1700 GMT at the Steve Jobs Theater in Apple's headquarters in Cupertino, California. It is the company's first indoor event since the pandemic.Based on reports, here are some of the expected announcements:IPHONE 14Apple usually launches new iPhones at the September event. The latest device is expected to include updates to the camera, storage and design, as well as satellite network connectivity.The \"mini\" version of the iPhone may be discontinued, according to reports.Pricing and bundling options for Apple's flagship product will be watched closely as decades-high inflation batters demand for all, but the most premium smartphones.\"Apple could choose to increase the price of the Pro models and leave the lower end models unchanged,\" BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan said.SATELLITE NETWORK CONNECTIVITYSatellite network connectivity was one of the test features for iPhone 14 before mass production, said TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, known for his accurate predictions related to Apple's product launches.The possible feature would allow users to send emergency text messages in situations where they are without a network.APPLE WATCHThe Watch Series 8 is expected have a bigger display and more health features, including a body-temperature sensor.The company may also launch a Pro version of the Watch.AIRPODS PRO 2The new model will likely feature enhanced sound quality and more sensors. Its case is expected to be water and sweat resistant, with support for magsafe wireless charging.Some reports suggest the case could have a type-C port.AUGMENTED REALITY/VIRTUAL REALITY HEADSETS?There has been curiosity among investors and fans about a mixed reality headset, but analysts do not expect the product to be launched until next year because of ongoing supply chain bottlenecks.\"There could be some clues around a new AR/VR product although unlikely to be launched before 2023,\" BofA Securities' Mohan said.Here is a list of Apple launches at previous events:Past EventsDateProducts launchedWorldwide Developer's ConferenceJune 6, 2022MacBooks with M2 chip\"Peak Performance\"March 8, 2022iPhone SE, iPad Air, Mac Studio, Studio Display,\"Unleashed\"Oct. 18, 2021MacBook Pro with M1 Pro and M1 Max chips, AirPods 3rd Gen\"California Streaming\"Sept. 14, 2021iPhone 13 series, iPad with A13, iPad Mini with A15, Apple Watch Series 7\"Spring Loaded\"April 20, 2021iPad Pro with M1, AirTag, iPhone 12 and 12 mini in purpleAlso Read: Apple iPhone 14 event: A price hike is expected, but will there be ‘one more thing’? Source: MarketWatchApple Inc.’s coming iPhone 14 lineup might not bring too many new features, but there could be one big change in store.After holding steady on iPhone prices a year ago, some analysts expect that Apple will increase the price of its iPhone 14 Pro models this year amid camera, chip, and design enhancements—as well as lingering pressure from supply costs and the strong U.S. dollar. Amid the highest inflation rates in decades, there have been concerns about consumers growing more cost-conscious — especially lower-wage earners — but Apple is expected to keep its standard iPhone models at the same starting price while increasing the base $999 and $1,199 prices on its iPhone Pro and Pro Max.“While the base iPhone will stay at the same price we believe a $100 price increase on the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max is likely in store given component price increases as well as added functionality on this new release,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a recent note to clients.The company is expected to debut the new iPhone family at a Wednesday event that will kick off at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Apple’s smartphones are its biggest business by far, bringing in more than $162 billion through three quarters of the company’s fiscal year, more than 57% of Apple’s revenue total.But The planned iPhone 14 debut comes amid uncertainty about how smartphone demand will hold up in the macroeconomic climate. IDC recently projected a 6.5% decline in global smartphone shipments this year, after shipments underperformed their estimates while declining for four quarters in a row. iPhone demand seems to have held up better than the overall market, however, and Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said on the company’s last earnings call that he hadn’t noticed “obvious evidence of macroeconomic impact” on the iPhone.Other than the price, the biggest news out of Apple’s event could be what isn’t mentioned, or gets taken away. Few observers expect Apple to show off its highly anticipated next product category, a headset, and Apple could be saying goodbye to the iPhone Mini and the infamous “notch.”Apple is expected to do away with the mini version of its base iPhone, and it could add a 6.7-inch configuration for the first time, according to Bloomberg News. Also, five years after Apple introduced a “notch” at the top of its iPhone X model that wasn’t exactly a fan favorite, Bloomberg reports it could finally be going away with the iPhone 14 update in favor of “hole-punch and pill-shaped cutouts for the front camera and Face ID sensors.”A Steve Jobs-worthy “One More Thing” that details Apple’s next big invention has long been absent from iPhone events, but his successor might have something up his sleeve that fits the bill. Apple has been developing a headset that is expected to integrate long-gestating mixed-reality technology, which Cook has long called “a big idea like the smartphone.” Experts expect it to reach consumers in 2023 at the earliest, but few analysts believe its first appearance will be at Wednesday’s event, even as Meta Platforms Inc. prepares to reveal its next-generation VR tech.Given a lack of chatter about the device more recently, it’s perhaps unlikely that Apple is ready to trot the product out for viewing in September—or else the silence means that Apple has done a good job of keeping the wraps on its “one more thing.” Bloomberg reported in May that the company “aimed to unveil the headset as early as the end of this year or sometime next year, with a consumer release planned for 2023.”Those holding out for foldable and flip phones like the models Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. debuted a few weeks back will likely have to keep waiting for that sort of launch at Apple, but iPhone fans should expect a faster processor and the end of a much-mocked design element.There could be a long awaited announcement of satellite connection technology for iPhones, which would allow people to communicate even while far off the beaten path. The move was expected last year and was not announced, and a similar setup is happening into this year, with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo writing this week that “Apple had completed hardware tests for this feature,” but “whether iPhone 14 will offer satellite communication service depends on whether Apple and operators can settle the business model.”The iPhone Pro models are expected to get the majority of the upgrades, relative to the regular iPhone models. Bloomberg News has reported that Apple plans to introduce a 48-megapixel camera, a faster chip, and better battery life for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. MacRumors notes that the enhanced camera would let more light pass through the lens, something that could allow for better image quality, including when shooting with the company’s Portrait Mode feature.The iPhone 14 Pro could also feature the new A16 chip, which MacRumors has said may help the company power the new camera, as well as the always-on display that some Apple watchers are expecting to finally see on the latest model. While Apple is thought to be planning chip upgrades for the Pro models, 9to5Mac expects that the company could stick with the same A15 chip for the base iPhone 14 line that was used in the iPhone 13 family.Also expected at the Wednesday event is an update to the Apple Watch lineup. Bloomberg reports that Apple is planning to introduce an Apple Watch SE featuring a faster chip, an Apple Watch Series 8 containing a body-temperature sensor, and a pro-level model. Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said that the hypothetical Apple Watch Pro could bring “more battery life, a larger screen, and new fitness features.”Apple’s iPhone event comes a week earlier in September than its one last year, suggesting to Evercore’s Daryanani that the company might also make the phones available for purchase sooner. For investors, that means Apple’s September quarter could feature an extra week of iPhone sales relative to last year’s.Apple stock has declined 10.9% so far this year, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average — which counts Apple among its 30 components — has declined 12.9% and the S&P 500 index has fallen 16.8%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931882831,"gmtCreate":1662430816623,"gmtModify":1676537058743,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very true! Difficult on the psychology to be patient. Very patient ! ","listText":"Very true! Difficult on the psychology to be patient. Very patient ! ","text":"Very true! Difficult on the psychology to be patient. Very patient !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931882831","repostId":"2264710715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2264710715","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662421459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2264710715?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-06 07:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will the Bear Market Bottom? History Offers a Very Clear Clue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2264710715","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Two indicators with a successful history of calling bottoms provide a range of where the S&P 500 could eventually bounce.","content":"<div>\n<p>You probably don't need me to tell you this, but 2022 has been one of the most challenging years on record for everyone from Wall Street professionals to everyday investors. The first half of the year...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/04/where-will-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-clue/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will the Bear Market Bottom? History Offers a Very Clear Clue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will the Bear Market Bottom? History Offers a Very Clear Clue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-06 07:44 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/04/where-will-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-clue/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You probably don't need me to tell you this, but 2022 has been one of the most challenging years on record for everyone from Wall Street professionals to everyday investors. The first half of the year...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/04/where-will-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-clue/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/04/where-will-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-clue/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2264710715","content_text":"You probably don't need me to tell you this, but 2022 has been one of the most challenging years on record for everyone from Wall Street professionals to everyday investors. The first half of the year saw the benchmark S&P 500, which is the broadest barometer of stock-market health, produce its worst return in 52 years. The growth-dependent Nasdaq Composite fared even worse, with the index losing as much as a third of its value on a peak-to-trough basis.With two of Wall Street's big three indexes falling into bear market territory -- the timeless Dow Jones Industrial Average maxed out at a peak decline of 19% -- and testing the resolve of investors, the critical question has become: \"Where will the bear market bottom?\"Image source: Getty Images.While the official answer is that we don't know with any certainty, history offers a number of very clear clues as to where the S&P 500 could trough. In particular, two indicators provide a range of where we can expect the bear market to bottom.Valuation plays a key role during bear marketsWhereas Wall Street is willing to tolerate higher valuations when the U.S. and global economy are firing on all cylinders, analysts and investors become much more critical of stock valuations when corrections and bear markets arise. That's why the S&P 500's forward-year price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio can come in handy.The S&P 500's forward P/E divides the aggregate point value of the S&P 500 Index into the consensus earnings-per-share forecast for Wall Street in the upcoming year (in this instance, 2023).With two exceptions -- the Great Recession between 2007 and 2009, where valuations were truly depressed given the uncertain state of the U.S. financial system, and the double-digit percentage pullback for the broader market in 2011 -- the S&P 500's forward P/E has accurately predicted the bottom of every other notable decline since the mid-1990s. Specifically, we've witnessed the benchmark index's forward-year P/E bottom between 13 and 14. This is where the S&P 500 found its bottom following the dot-com bubble in 2002, during the nearly 20% pullback in the fourth quarter of 2018, and following the coronavirus crash.As of Aug. 31, the S&P 500's forward-year P/E stood at 16.8. Based on the noted range of 13 to 14, this would imply further downside to the S&P 500 of 16.7% to 22.6%. In other words, as long as the earnings component of the benchmark index doesn't drastically change, this indicator would imply a bear-market bottom between 3,061 and 3,296.Image source: Getty Images.Margin debt tells a grimmer storyWhile the S&P 500's forward-year P/E ratio provides an upper bound of where history would suggest the bear market is headed, outstanding margin debt tells a more worrisome story.\"Margin debt\" describes the amount of money being borrowed, with interest, by investors to purchase or short-sell securities. Although it's perfectly normal for margin debt to increase over time as the value of U.S. equities grows, it's anything but normal to see margin debt rise significantly, on a percentage basis, over a short period.Since 1995, there have only been three instances where margin debt increased by 60% or more on a trailing-12-month basis. It occurred immediately prior to the dot-com bubble bursting in 2000, just months prior to the financial crisis taking shape in 2007, and once more in 2021. Following the previous two instances where margin debt skyrocketed in excess of 60% in the trailing-12-month period, the S&P 500 lost 49% and 57% of its respective value before finding a bottom.If we simplify this to a general loss of 50% of the S&P 500's value, the bottom range for the index, based on what margin debt history tells us, is 2,409 (half of the 4,818 intra-day high).In other words, two leading indicators with a history of successfully calling a number of bear-market bottoms suggest the S&P 500 could fall to 2,409 in a worst-case scenario, or bounce up to 3,296 if corporate earnings hold up better than expected.^SPX data by YCharts.The one figure more powerful than any bear-market-bottom indicatorObviously, these indicators could be wrong, and the June 2022 bear-market low of 3,636 could hold firm for the S&P 500. If there were indicators that were right 100% of the time, every Wall Street professional and retail investor would be using them by now.Regardless of whether the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones industrial Average have already found their respective bottoms or still have additional downside, one figure does offer a practical guarantee -- and all it requires is your patience.Every year, stock-market analytics provider Crestmont Research publishes data highlighting the 20-year rolling total returns (which include dividends paid) for the S&P 500 since 1919. In other words, Crestmont is looking at the average annual total return investors would have made by buying and holding an S&P 500 tracking index for 20 years over each of the past 103 end years (1919-2021).The result? Investors made money 103 out of 103 times if they purchased an S&P 500 tracking index and held it for 20 years. What's more, approximately 40% of these 103 end years produced an average annual total return of at least 10.9%. Investors weren't just scraping by holding an S&P 500 index. They were doubling their money about every seven years in roughly 40% of all rolling 20-year periods.That means that investors shouldn't be afraid to put money to work on Wall Street either now or in the future. If you're a long-term investor, time is a far more powerful ally than any bear-market bottom indicator.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.6,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}