To The Moon

Bitcoin (BTC) Institutional Giants Double Down Amidst Volatility and Regulatory Actions Bitcoin is currently navigating a period of heightened volatility, trading around the $68,000 mark after briefly dipping below $67,000 in intraday sessions. The asset has seen a narrowed decrease of approximately 1.36% over the last 24 hours. Despite this short-term price turbulence, the macro narrative remains dominated by aggressive institutional maneuvering. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, continues to innovate its capital strategy to acquire more BTC. CEO Phong Le announced plans to issue "Stretch" perpetual preferred shares, a new financial instrument designed to offer investors exposure to digital capital while mitigating volatility risk. This move aims to fund further Bi

Post Japan election, CTA is now selling some of their JPY length build up from start of Feb, and with Asia open 11 Feb starting the sell off again to about 153 levels, we should see more CTA selling. Major banks have mixed views on USDJPY longer term (6-12mths), with GS and Nomura bearish and targeting 150-152 levels, JPM bullish and targetting 157-160 levels. Meanwhile CTA still close to max long on AUD, EUR and GBP.

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is navigating mixed signals as traders digest resilient labor data against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and shifting Fed expectations. J.P. Morgan and Nomura are analyzing the implications of the upcoming NFP report, with JPM forecasting a softer 30k jobs gain (vs 68k consensus) but maintaining a steady 4.4% unemployment rate. This data, combined with a 0.35% MoM core CPI forecast, keeps the Fed on a path of caution rather than aggressive easing. MUFG notes that the dollar index (DXY) has lost some momentum, falling below 97.00 after hitting recent highs, as weaker-than-expected retail sales (flat in Dec) fueled bets for a June rate cut. Geopolitically, the dollar remains supported by safe-haven flows amidst ongoing US-Iran tensions and supply c

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices have strengthened, with Brent trading around $69/bbl, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply-side concerns, and a "risk-on" sentiment driven by strong US economic data. The geopolitical landscape remains fraught, with Russia accusing the US of coercing nations like India to shun Russian oil, while Israel's Prime Minister is set to meet President Trump to discuss Iran. Supply tightness is a recurring theme, underscored by Shell's warning of a significant long-term production shortfall and OPEC's January output decline. Demand signals are mixed but leaning positive, with US consumer sentiment beating expectations and Chinese equity markets rallying on stimulus hopes. J.P. Morgan (JPM) maintains a watchful eye on global growth,

Personally I think on a larger timescale it probably is a indicator of things bottoming but you could be also looking at holding on losses for periods potentially in months, so definitely not for high leverage plays.

Bitcoin (BTC) Institutional Accumulation Diverges from Retail Sentiment Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around the $69,000 mark, showing a slight decrease of approximately 1.25% over the last 24 hours. Despite this minor retracement, the market is witnessing a significant divergence between retail sentiment and institutional action. While social media metrics indicate that bearish posts continue to outnumber bullish ones—suggesting retail investors remain hesitant—institutional giants are aggressively accumulating. SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci confirmed that his firm has increased its Bitcoin holdings at price points of $84,000, $63,000, and within the current range [ChainCatcher]. Similarly, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor remains steadfast, predicting that Bitcoin will "dou

USD The US Dollar traded unevenly, showing a softening trend against major peers like the Euro and Japanese Yen due to improved global risk sentiment. Speculative positioning has become heavily skewed toward USD selling, with gross short positions across eight IMM currency futures more than doubling to a six-month high of USD 17.4 billion. JPM economists continue to see global GDP staying resilient at 2.8%, with consumers as a key driver. GS economists anticipate a +45k headline NFP print and a 33bp core CPI reading for January, noting that January reports often provide outsized FX reactions. Nomura reported that year-ahead inflation expectations in the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations moved lower to 3.09%, the lowest since July 2025. Goldman Sachs traders warned that US stocks face

Fundamental factors suggested fair value at 68.49 vs settled at 69.04, at this point dont see a lot of reason to action basis this forecast.

CTA had been cutting their length in precious and base metals since start of Feb (locking in profits), with varied positioning even within precious. They are still long Gold, slightly long Silver and Palladium and close to flat on Platinum. Still long Copper and slightly long Aluminium. Close to max length on Oil and products, turning to flat on US Treasuries and going long on US 2Y.

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices have demonstrated resilience, holding onto recent gains as the market balances immediate geopolitical risks against a structurally bearish medium-term outlook. Brent futures traded firmly above the $68/bbl mark, supported by a confluence of supply-side concerns and lingering diplomatic tensions. While US-Iran talks in Oman concluded with a "positive" tone, averting immediate escalation, the lack of a concrete resolution keeps a risk premium embedded in the market. Traders remain wary of potential flare-ups, particularly with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu scheduled to meet President Trump to discuss the Iranian nuclear file. On the physical front, supply tightness is evident as the aftershocks of the US "deep freeze" continue to hamper producti