Profile - To The Moon

fcbergkamp

Posts · 0Posts · 0
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-11-03
  $CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$
  2.88K Comment
  1
  Share
  Report
- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-10-28
  $Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)$
  3.08K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-10-11
  Thanks
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  4.10K 1
  7
  Share
  Report
- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-10-07
  $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$
  2.89K Comment
  2
  Share
  Report
- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-10-07
  Thanks
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.39K 1
  6
  Share
  Report
- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-10-06
  Thanks
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  2.70K Comment
  3
  Share
  Report
- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-10-05
  $SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$
  2.94K Comment
  1
  Share
  Report
- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-10-05
  Thanks
  QQQ And SPY: Major Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now
  SummaryThe market is entering a critical phase with the potential to force a major bear market bottoming process seen in the most significant bear markets: the double bottom.Even previously bullish ma
  QQQ And SPY: Major Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now
  3.00K Comment
  5
  Share
  Report
- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-10-04
  Thanks
  Apple: Hello Recession
  SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Hallow
  Apple: Hello Recession
  2.95K Comment
  6
  Share
  Report
- fcbergkampfcbergkamp
  ·2022-10-04
  Thanks
  Apple: Hello Recession
  SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Hallow
  Apple: Hello Recession
  3.59K 1
  2
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3576886000348777","uuid":"3576886000348777","gmtCreate":1613796822037,"gmtModify":1635853045035,"name":"fcbergkamp","pinyin":"fcbergkamp","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":63,"headSize":4,"tweetSize":0,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.04.01","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":9985762355,"gmtCreate":1667466853377,"gmtModify":1676537923002,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>","text":"$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3752c79786ab0fa3524a1fa4ec5bdd90","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985762355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986616712,"gmtCreate":1666939839536,"gmtModify":1676537835610,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/N2IU.SI\">$Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/N2IU.SI\">$Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)$</a>","text":"$Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986616712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917345333,"gmtCreate":1665446769322,"gmtModify":1676537606619,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917345333","repostId":"2274659942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915426017,"gmtCreate":1665101103740,"gmtModify":1676537556519,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/967e5e47e3bba91ada49e29a5d5a3a57","width":"1125","height":"2262"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915426017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915423935,"gmtCreate":1665100839827,"gmtModify":1676537556435,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915423935","repostId":"2273380106","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915600824,"gmtCreate":1665016606469,"gmtModify":1676537544212,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915600824","repostId":"2273289978","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915137820,"gmtCreate":1664980110061,"gmtModify":1676537538866,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S68.SI\">$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S68.SI\">$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$</a>","text":"$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/84bcfdac1b0ba2ea14245809b5455645","width":"1125","height":"2366"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915137820","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915135724,"gmtCreate":1664979918068,"gmtModify":1676537538803,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915135724","repostId":"1137334453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137334453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664982019,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137334453?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QQQ And SPY: Major Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137334453","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe market is entering a critical phase with the potential to force a major bear market bottoming process seen in the most significant bear markets: the double bottom.Even previously bullish ma","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>The market is entering a critical phase with the potential to force a major bear market bottoming process seen in the most significant bear markets: the double bottom.</li><li>Even previously bullish market strategists have been shaken by the recent wave of market pessimism, accentuated by the media&#39;s bearish calls.</li><li>We discuss why we could have reached peak pessimism last week, at heights unseen over the past fifteen years.</li><li>We also explain the critical levels investors need to watch to analyze the price action over the next four to five weeks to validate our thesis.</li><li>This is the moment investors need to be brave and not fall into the bearish camp.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac443e0ce1bd43b0a4d2729fe65b6d7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>24K-Production</span></p><p>Thesis</p><p>This is the moment that we have been waiting for, the ultimate trap to ensnare the bearish investors/short-sellers/hedgers. We gleaned that the market had set up the bearish conditions to form the most potent bear trap (indicating the market denied furtherselling downside decisively) in our arsenal last Friday (September 30), when the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) re-tested its June lows.</p><p>Accordingly, it joined the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) in its quest to attract sellers into their June bottom by breaking below it. Therefore, it created the optimal conditions for sellers to be drawn deep into peak bear market pessimism, taking out the stop losses from buyers who picked June&#39;s lows, creating massive panic.</p><p>As discussed below, we also observed critical observations from Wall Street strategists who maintained their bullish views until last week&#39;s re-tests. Hence, even the most resilient bullish equity strategists are now unsure of their posture, adding to the score of already pessimistic Wall Street strategists.</p><p>Notwithstanding, our analysis suggests that the market has set up such re-test conditions several times to form significant bear market bottoms before. These are conditions designed to force weak buyers who thought they picked the lows in June to abandon their thesis entirely at the worst possible moment. They are also intended to fan the flames in the media, who have been touting bearish ideas during these volatile times to attract eyeballs.</p><p>While we have yet to glean a validated bullish reversal signal that could confirm that this is the ultimate bottom, we are cautiously optimistic. Notwithstanding, no one can predict precisely how the market will move in the next four to five weeks, which is critical to our thesis. However, even if you really want to cut exposure, we urge you not to jump ship now at the worst possible time of peak pessimism. Sell at the next relief rally if you desire, but not here and not now.</p><p>We reiterate our Buy rating on the SPY and QQQ.</p><p>Bullish Strategists Are Now Uncertain With Their Conviction</p><p>In our daily update for our members, we observed several indicators that highlighted peak pessimism in the market last week. We noted that the put/call premium reached a record high that was unseen over the past fifteen years. We accentuated:</p><blockquote>[The put/call premium] reached an extreme [level] well above the highs in June [2022] and at levels not seen over the past 15 years. That means it&#39;s even higher than the levels last seen in the 2008/09 financial crisis. The fear and panic have reached a crescendo. Note that this contrarian indicator is very consistent in its predictive potency of a significant bottoming process when it reaches extreme levels. It&#39;s incredible; markets have finally turned extremely panicky, much more than in June, and at the highest levels over the past 15! (Ultimate Growth Investing 28 September 2022 Daily Market Analysis)</blockquote><p>Furthermore, we also gleaned that previously bullish strategists have started questioning their conviction levels. For instance, JPMorgan&#39;s (JPM) Marko Kolanovic, who is noted to have been &#34;a steadfast bullthroughout the stock market&#39;s more than 20% decline this year, but now some big risks are forming that he can&#39;t ignore.&#34; He highlighted:</p><blockquote>Most of the risks in 2022 are a result of policies: escalation of geopolitical tensions and violence, mismanagement of the energy crisis, damaging (instead of nurturing) of global trade relationships and supply chains, fanning internal political divisions, and more. It all amounts to throwing rocks in glass house. While we remain above-consensus positive, these [year-end] targets may not be realized until 2023 or when the risks ease. - Insider</blockquote><p>Even market strategist Edward Yardeni, who has been calling for a &#34;rolling/growth recession&#34; instead of a full-blown one, is also considering revisiting his thesis, as it could have been &#34;too optimistic.&#34; He articulated:</p><blockquote>The latest economic indicators suggest that the economy is doing better than expected but also that inflation remains too high. That alignment increases the odds of more Fed tightening than previously expected, a higher terminal fed funds rate, and a Fed-induced hard landing. A hard landing isn&#39;t currently our economic forecast-we see the growth recession continuing through year-end. But fears of a Fed-induced hard landing are increasing bearishness in both bond and stock markets. We are assessing whether our forecasts for both S&amp;P 500 earnings and valuation might be too optimistic. (Yardeni Research October 3 morning briefing)</blockquote><p>The point we are trying to make is not to call out these two well-respected strategists. But, we believe it&#39;s necessary to point out that even some of the most optimistic market strategists are now questioning their conviction levels. It corroborates our indicators that suggest that the market could have reached peak pessimism, as we suggested.</p><p>Significant Market Bottoming Process Could Be Forming</p><p>Investors need to understand that the market is a complex machinery. But, we believe experienced investors generally concur that the most significant market bottoms are formed at levels of peak pessimism. That includes the depths seen in the dotcom bust in the early 2000s or the global financial crisis of 2007-09.</p><p>But is the current bear market bottoming process any different? We don&#39;t think anyone can tell you exactly how the current bottom would pan out. Notwithstanding, they often demonstrate similar price structures that unveil significant clues about their bottoming process. Let&#39;s see.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c4858ac6a8891490febd96e54cbbd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>QQQ price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>As seen above, the market forced the QQQ down rapidly to its June lows through September after posting its August highs, forming the re-test.</p><p>We believe the summer rally from the initial June bottom cajoled investors into covering their hedges and investors waiting on the sideline to join the momentum surge, as it broke above May&#39;s highs. As a result, it created a &#34;higher-high&#34; structure, giving these investors&#39; confidence that June&#39;s bottom could have marked the market&#39;s ultimate lows.</p><p>Of course, the market had other ideas, as the steep selling through September helped create another opportunity to draw in sellers rapidly, as market pessimism reached feverish levels.</p><p>Notwithstanding, the re-test also created a potential double bottom opportunity, predicated on the lows in June. So, June lows are still valid, but the market needed to force another round of massive panic by taking out the summer gains before reversing the momentum.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f20ea4352b6cd926d55d0a59dbcf6ad4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>We also gleaned similar price action in the SPY, which re-tested its June bottom ahead of the QQQ last week.</p><p>Hence, the stage is set for the double bottom to be validated over the next four to five weeks. Therefore, we believe price-action-based investors will be carefully poring over the market dynamics over this period to discern buyers&#39; resilience to create the potential bullish reversal price action, leading to the next sustained uptrend.</p><p>Investors could also ask whether the price action in March was considered a double bottom. The answer is no. Because the market was not in a prior downtrend, market conditions are not considered bearish enough to validate a double bottom.</p><p>However, the length and extent of the bear market since its November 2021 highs have formed a medium-term downtrend in the current re-test. Therefore, we have the critical condition of a downtrending market to validate the double bottom in our arsenal.</p><p>Previous Double Bottoms Marked The Ultimate Bottom</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cafca6b8573804703e65bdffc2141e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>We bring you back to the global financial crisis of 2007-09 to help investors glean the market&#39;s bottoming process, which also formed a double bottom.</p><p>As seen above, the rapid capitulation from August to September 2008 led to an initial bear trap in November 2008, not long after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffet&#39;s famous op-ed in The New York Times (NYT), accentuating:</p><blockquote>What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over. -NYT</blockquote><p>Actually, Buffett&#39;s timing of his commentary was logical and spot on. However, the market had other ideas, as it needed to create another massive panic wave to force the ultimate lows: the double bottom.</p><p>As seen above, the market then went on another selling overdrive over the next four months forcing investors to flee to the hills and drawing in sellers on peak pessimism. Alas, the double bottom formed and was validated at the lows in March 2009.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012ad6c1d1f14aef4b8fc52f68592736\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NASDAQ price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>We also gleaned another double bottom in the significant market bottoming process at the dotcom bust in the early 2000s. As seen above, the NASDAQ (NDX) formed its initial lows in September 2001, coming right after the WTC terrorist attacks. However, the bear trap only occurred in August 2002.</p><p>Notwithstanding, the market needed to force another low to create massive panic by forming a double bottom in October 2002, effectively taking out the lows from August&#39;s bear trap. Subsequently, the index never looked back until the Great Financial Crisis in 2007.</p><p>Takeaway</p><p>We have discussed critical market turning points that often culminated in double bottoms in the most significant bear markets over the past twenty years.</p><p>Therefore, the SPY and the QQQ are given the opportunity to demonstrate that we are on the cusp of another double bottom, trapping bearish investors/short sellers at the worst possible moments.</p><p>The market action over the next four to five weeks will be critical to validating our thesis.</p><p>We remain cautiously optimistic given the massive pessimism seen in the market, coupled with constructive price action. Accordingly, we <i>reiterate our Buy rating on the QQQ and the SPY.</i></p><p><i>This article was written by JR Research.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ And SPY: Major Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ And SPY: Major Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544587-qqq-and-spy-major-market-bottoming-signals-forming-now-technical-analysis><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe market is entering a critical phase with the potential to force a major bear market bottoming process seen in the most significant bear markets: the double bottom.Even previously bullish ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544587-qqq-and-spy-major-market-bottoming-signals-forming-now-technical-analysis\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544587-qqq-and-spy-major-market-bottoming-signals-forming-now-technical-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137334453","content_text":"SummaryThe market is entering a critical phase with the potential to force a major bear market bottoming process seen in the most significant bear markets: the double bottom.Even previously bullish market strategists have been shaken by the recent wave of market pessimism, accentuated by the media's bearish calls.We discuss why we could have reached peak pessimism last week, at heights unseen over the past fifteen years.We also explain the critical levels investors need to watch to analyze the price action over the next four to five weeks to validate our thesis.This is the moment investors need to be brave and not fall into the bearish camp.24K-ProductionThesisThis is the moment that we have been waiting for, the ultimate trap to ensnare the bearish investors/short-sellers/hedgers. We gleaned that the market had set up the bearish conditions to form the most potent bear trap (indicating the market denied furtherselling downside decisively) in our arsenal last Friday (September 30), when the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) re-tested its June lows.Accordingly, it joined the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) in its quest to attract sellers into their June bottom by breaking below it. Therefore, it created the optimal conditions for sellers to be drawn deep into peak bear market pessimism, taking out the stop losses from buyers who picked June's lows, creating massive panic.As discussed below, we also observed critical observations from Wall Street strategists who maintained their bullish views until last week's re-tests. Hence, even the most resilient bullish equity strategists are now unsure of their posture, adding to the score of already pessimistic Wall Street strategists.Notwithstanding, our analysis suggests that the market has set up such re-test conditions several times to form significant bear market bottoms before. These are conditions designed to force weak buyers who thought they picked the lows in June to abandon their thesis entirely at the worst possible moment. They are also intended to fan the flames in the media, who have been touting bearish ideas during these volatile times to attract eyeballs.While we have yet to glean a validated bullish reversal signal that could confirm that this is the ultimate bottom, we are cautiously optimistic. Notwithstanding, no one can predict precisely how the market will move in the next four to five weeks, which is critical to our thesis. However, even if you really want to cut exposure, we urge you not to jump ship now at the worst possible time of peak pessimism. Sell at the next relief rally if you desire, but not here and not now.We reiterate our Buy rating on the SPY and QQQ.Bullish Strategists Are Now Uncertain With Their ConvictionIn our daily update for our members, we observed several indicators that highlighted peak pessimism in the market last week. We noted that the put/call premium reached a record high that was unseen over the past fifteen years. We accentuated:[The put/call premium] reached an extreme [level] well above the highs in June [2022] and at levels not seen over the past 15 years. That means it's even higher than the levels last seen in the 2008/09 financial crisis. The fear and panic have reached a crescendo. Note that this contrarian indicator is very consistent in its predictive potency of a significant bottoming process when it reaches extreme levels. It's incredible; markets have finally turned extremely panicky, much more than in June, and at the highest levels over the past 15! (Ultimate Growth Investing 28 September 2022 Daily Market Analysis)Furthermore, we also gleaned that previously bullish strategists have started questioning their conviction levels. For instance, JPMorgan's (JPM) Marko Kolanovic, who is noted to have been \"a steadfast bullthroughout the stock market's more than 20% decline this year, but now some big risks are forming that he can't ignore.\" He highlighted:Most of the risks in 2022 are a result of policies: escalation of geopolitical tensions and violence, mismanagement of the energy crisis, damaging (instead of nurturing) of global trade relationships and supply chains, fanning internal political divisions, and more. It all amounts to throwing rocks in glass house. While we remain above-consensus positive, these [year-end] targets may not be realized until 2023 or when the risks ease. - InsiderEven market strategist Edward Yardeni, who has been calling for a \"rolling/growth recession\" instead of a full-blown one, is also considering revisiting his thesis, as it could have been \"too optimistic.\" He articulated:The latest economic indicators suggest that the economy is doing better than expected but also that inflation remains too high. That alignment increases the odds of more Fed tightening than previously expected, a higher terminal fed funds rate, and a Fed-induced hard landing. A hard landing isn't currently our economic forecast-we see the growth recession continuing through year-end. But fears of a Fed-induced hard landing are increasing bearishness in both bond and stock markets. We are assessing whether our forecasts for both S&P 500 earnings and valuation might be too optimistic. (Yardeni Research October 3 morning briefing)The point we are trying to make is not to call out these two well-respected strategists. But, we believe it's necessary to point out that even some of the most optimistic market strategists are now questioning their conviction levels. It corroborates our indicators that suggest that the market could have reached peak pessimism, as we suggested.Significant Market Bottoming Process Could Be FormingInvestors need to understand that the market is a complex machinery. But, we believe experienced investors generally concur that the most significant market bottoms are formed at levels of peak pessimism. That includes the depths seen in the dotcom bust in the early 2000s or the global financial crisis of 2007-09.But is the current bear market bottoming process any different? We don't think anyone can tell you exactly how the current bottom would pan out. Notwithstanding, they often demonstrate similar price structures that unveil significant clues about their bottoming process. Let's see.QQQ price chart (weekly) (TradingView)As seen above, the market forced the QQQ down rapidly to its June lows through September after posting its August highs, forming the re-test.We believe the summer rally from the initial June bottom cajoled investors into covering their hedges and investors waiting on the sideline to join the momentum surge, as it broke above May's highs. As a result, it created a \"higher-high\" structure, giving these investors' confidence that June's bottom could have marked the market's ultimate lows.Of course, the market had other ideas, as the steep selling through September helped create another opportunity to draw in sellers rapidly, as market pessimism reached feverish levels.Notwithstanding, the re-test also created a potential double bottom opportunity, predicated on the lows in June. So, June lows are still valid, but the market needed to force another round of massive panic by taking out the summer gains before reversing the momentum.SPY price chart (weekly) (TradingView)We also gleaned similar price action in the SPY, which re-tested its June bottom ahead of the QQQ last week.Hence, the stage is set for the double bottom to be validated over the next four to five weeks. Therefore, we believe price-action-based investors will be carefully poring over the market dynamics over this period to discern buyers' resilience to create the potential bullish reversal price action, leading to the next sustained uptrend.Investors could also ask whether the price action in March was considered a double bottom. The answer is no. Because the market was not in a prior downtrend, market conditions are not considered bearish enough to validate a double bottom.However, the length and extent of the bear market since its November 2021 highs have formed a medium-term downtrend in the current re-test. Therefore, we have the critical condition of a downtrending market to validate the double bottom in our arsenal.Previous Double Bottoms Marked The Ultimate BottomSPY price chart (weekly) (TradingView)We bring you back to the global financial crisis of 2007-09 to help investors glean the market's bottoming process, which also formed a double bottom.As seen above, the rapid capitulation from August to September 2008 led to an initial bear trap in November 2008, not long after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffet's famous op-ed in The New York Times (NYT), accentuating:What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over. -NYTActually, Buffett's timing of his commentary was logical and spot on. However, the market had other ideas, as it needed to create another massive panic wave to force the ultimate lows: the double bottom.As seen above, the market then went on another selling overdrive over the next four months forcing investors to flee to the hills and drawing in sellers on peak pessimism. Alas, the double bottom formed and was validated at the lows in March 2009.NASDAQ price chart (weekly) (TradingView)We also gleaned another double bottom in the significant market bottoming process at the dotcom bust in the early 2000s. As seen above, the NASDAQ (NDX) formed its initial lows in September 2001, coming right after the WTC terrorist attacks. However, the bear trap only occurred in August 2002.Notwithstanding, the market needed to force another low to create massive panic by forming a double bottom in October 2002, effectively taking out the lows from August's bear trap. Subsequently, the index never looked back until the Great Financial Crisis in 2007.TakeawayWe have discussed critical market turning points that often culminated in double bottoms in the most significant bear markets over the past twenty years.Therefore, the SPY and the QQQ are given the opportunity to demonstrate that we are on the cusp of another double bottom, trapping bearish investors/short sellers at the worst possible moments.The market action over the next four to five weeks will be critical to validating our thesis.We remain cautiously optimistic given the massive pessimism seen in the market, coupled with constructive price action. Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on the QQQ and the SPY.This article was written by JR Research.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912686645,"gmtCreate":1664831614988,"gmtModify":1676537513361,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912686645","repostId":"1155119620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155119620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664810520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155119620?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Hello Recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155119620","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Hallow","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>A friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4&#39;22 earnings on 27 October 2022.</li><li>It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Halloween.</li><li>If the reports were indeed true, we might see the company report impacted earnings for H2&#39;22.</li><li>That would put more downward pressure on the stock performance of the world&#39;s largest market cap company, which has been greatly see-sawing for the past year.</li><li>Tragic indeed, since we were more hopeful.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) throne as the world&#39;s most valuable company seems a little shaky, with the onslaught of negative news thus far. The company had to cut itsiPhone14 production output by -6.66%, back to its original plan of 90M handsets, similar to previous releases. On one hand, we expect some of those headwinds to be well balanced by the robust demand for its premium models, compensating for the lost volume with higher margins. On the other hand, it is apparent that the rising inflation, record high oil/gas prices, China&#39;s economic slump (one of AAPL&#39;s best markets), and geopolitical issues in the EU are impacting consumers&#39; discretionary spending, with the global smartphone market expected to deflate by -6.5% in 2022 to 1.27B units instead.</p><p>It remains to be seen if the Cupertino giant will suffer financially during this economic downturn, since the previous recession in 2008 had impacted AAPL&#39;s top and bottom lines growth to a certain extent. The company reported a notable YoY growth of 14.4% in revenues and 34.69% in net incomes for FY2009, compared to 52.5% and 75.07% in FY2009. The recessionary impacts were considerably mild then, since consumer discretionary spending remained relatively robust for the company.</p><p>Nonetheless, we are already starting to see some stock weaknesses. AAPL has continuously failed to break its resistance level at the $180s and, consequently, lost -22.10% of its value from its peak levels in March and August 2022. The S&amp;P 500 Index had also plunged by -24.10% YTD, indicating peak market pessimism and fear levels. During the previous recession, both stocks had tanked, with AAPL reporting a -52.21% plunge and the S&amp;P 500 a -43.37% plunge between August and December 2008.</p><p>However, all hope is not lost, since the September CPI released in early October may provide the potential catalyst for the stock market&#39;s recovery, due to the Fed&#39;s projected terminal rate of4.6% by 2023. This potentially indicates a 75 basis point hike in November, with January 2023 moderating with a 50 basis point hike. Therefore, we may speculatively assume that most of the pessimism is already baked in, barring an earnings miss ahead. We shall see.</p><p><b>Mr. Market Is Still Hopeful About This Last Frontier</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6e5a1cae35b8931343e48558a302b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>For FQ4&#39;22, AAPL is expected to report revenues of $88.74B and operating margins of 27.4%, representing an increase of 6.96% though a moderation of 0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, an increase of 6.45% and a decline of -1.1 percentage points YoY, respectively, with the latter attributed to the rising costs. It remains to be seen if AAPL will be able to achieve its previous guidance of accelerated sales and gross margins between 41.5% to 42.5% for FQ4&#39;22.</p><p>In contrast, consensus estimates that AAPL will report net incomes of $20.37B and net income margins of 23% for the upcoming quarter, indicating certain headwinds to its profitability, with a minimal increase of 4.78% and a decline of -0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, a notable decline of -0.87% and -1.7 percentage points YoY, respectively. With an estimated EPS of $1.27 for FQ4&#39;22, AAPL would be looking at a decent 5.83% QoQ and 2.07% YoY growth. It might just be enough to satisfy Mr. Market&#39;s highly pessimistic outlook, preserving its cult stock status ahead.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4647325ee184db498185ed216ae70003\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Nonetheless, Mr. Market is cautiously confident about AAPL&#39;s projected cash flow, with a Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $21.89B and an FCF margin of 24.6% in FQ4&#39;22. It indicated a decent improvement of 5.29% and -0.5 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, massive YoY growth of 28.91% and 4.2 percentage points, respectively. AAPL&#39;s chances of success would be higher as well, assuming aggressive cost cuts across the board. We shall see, given the historical trend of elevated capital expenditures thus far, especially in FQ4s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2272b2e2674db1028a34156cdb527164\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Over the next four years, AAPL is expected to report revenue and net income growth at a CAGR of 5.19% and 2.98%, respectively. For now, Mr. Market remains somewhat positive, since these long-term projections and FY2022 estimates remain in line since our previous analysis in August, though slightly discounted by -2.9% since May 2022. Its upcoming earnings call will make or break AAPL&#39;s stock performance, as the EU enters its first winter without Russian gas and the Feds continue to fight against the rising inflation through 2023.</p><p>In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.</p><ul><li>Apple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed Reality</li><li>AnAppleA Day Keeps The Portfolio Healthy (And Potentially, Recession At Bay)</li><li>CanAppleBe The New Tesla - Smartphone On Wheels By 2025?</li></ul><p><b>So, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36ca45afe53753e7a5a6854436f2769\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>AAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 22.92x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.63x and 21.94x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $142.84, down -21.91% from its 52 weeks high of $182.94, though at a premium of 10.69% from its 52 weeks low of $129.04. With a consensus estimate price target of $188.22, it is apparent that there is still a notable 32.10% upside from current prices</p><p><b>AAPL &amp; SPY 5Y/1Y Stock Price</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1e569f2277b0630924e459640a4bc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Both stocks also have had a relatively interesting co-existing relationship in their performance thus far, naturally, since AAPL accounts for 7.1% of the S&amp;P 500 Index weighting. While APPL obviously had better returns thus far for the past 5Y at 289.6% and 10Y at 597.4%, the S&amp;P 500 has also fared comparatively decent with 57.4% and 204.2%, respectively. These numbers are impressive, given that many other stocks have been decimated thus far.</p><p>With the stocks trading below their 50 and 100-day moving averages, both look relatively attractive, considering the massive returns upon market recovery by Q1&#39;23. Naturally, the market will always be full of pitfalls for anyone who tries to pitch the perfect timing, since there may still be some downsides from current levels. As a result, investors with higher risk tolerances may consider nibbling at these levels, fully understanding the great importance of AAPL through the next decade.</p><p>Otherwise, conservative investors (like myself) will be waiting for more clarity from its upcoming earnings call, since the whole market seems to be heading for destruction one way or another. With little catalyst for short-term recovery, the AAPL stock will be testing the June lows of $130s over the next week or so. If that support level is breached, my oh my, we are in for a catastrophic rollercoaster ride indeed. Good luck all.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Hello Recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Hello Recession\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-03 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155119620","content_text":"SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Halloween.If the reports were indeed true, we might see the company report impacted earnings for H2'22.That would put more downward pressure on the stock performance of the world's largest market cap company, which has been greatly see-sawing for the past year.Tragic indeed, since we were more hopeful.Investment ThesisApple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) throne as the world's most valuable company seems a little shaky, with the onslaught of negative news thus far. The company had to cut itsiPhone14 production output by -6.66%, back to its original plan of 90M handsets, similar to previous releases. On one hand, we expect some of those headwinds to be well balanced by the robust demand for its premium models, compensating for the lost volume with higher margins. On the other hand, it is apparent that the rising inflation, record high oil/gas prices, China's economic slump (one of AAPL's best markets), and geopolitical issues in the EU are impacting consumers' discretionary spending, with the global smartphone market expected to deflate by -6.5% in 2022 to 1.27B units instead.It remains to be seen if the Cupertino giant will suffer financially during this economic downturn, since the previous recession in 2008 had impacted AAPL's top and bottom lines growth to a certain extent. The company reported a notable YoY growth of 14.4% in revenues and 34.69% in net incomes for FY2009, compared to 52.5% and 75.07% in FY2009. The recessionary impacts were considerably mild then, since consumer discretionary spending remained relatively robust for the company.Nonetheless, we are already starting to see some stock weaknesses. AAPL has continuously failed to break its resistance level at the $180s and, consequently, lost -22.10% of its value from its peak levels in March and August 2022. The S&P 500 Index had also plunged by -24.10% YTD, indicating peak market pessimism and fear levels. During the previous recession, both stocks had tanked, with AAPL reporting a -52.21% plunge and the S&P 500 a -43.37% plunge between August and December 2008.However, all hope is not lost, since the September CPI released in early October may provide the potential catalyst for the stock market's recovery, due to the Fed's projected terminal rate of4.6% by 2023. This potentially indicates a 75 basis point hike in November, with January 2023 moderating with a 50 basis point hike. Therefore, we may speculatively assume that most of the pessimism is already baked in, barring an earnings miss ahead. We shall see.Mr. Market Is Still Hopeful About This Last FrontierS&P Capital IQFor FQ4'22, AAPL is expected to report revenues of $88.74B and operating margins of 27.4%, representing an increase of 6.96% though a moderation of 0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, an increase of 6.45% and a decline of -1.1 percentage points YoY, respectively, with the latter attributed to the rising costs. It remains to be seen if AAPL will be able to achieve its previous guidance of accelerated sales and gross margins between 41.5% to 42.5% for FQ4'22.In contrast, consensus estimates that AAPL will report net incomes of $20.37B and net income margins of 23% for the upcoming quarter, indicating certain headwinds to its profitability, with a minimal increase of 4.78% and a decline of -0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, a notable decline of -0.87% and -1.7 percentage points YoY, respectively. With an estimated EPS of $1.27 for FQ4'22, AAPL would be looking at a decent 5.83% QoQ and 2.07% YoY growth. It might just be enough to satisfy Mr. Market's highly pessimistic outlook, preserving its cult stock status ahead.S&P Capital IQNonetheless, Mr. Market is cautiously confident about AAPL's projected cash flow, with a Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $21.89B and an FCF margin of 24.6% in FQ4'22. It indicated a decent improvement of 5.29% and -0.5 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, massive YoY growth of 28.91% and 4.2 percentage points, respectively. AAPL's chances of success would be higher as well, assuming aggressive cost cuts across the board. We shall see, given the historical trend of elevated capital expenditures thus far, especially in FQ4s.S&P Capital IQOver the next four years, AAPL is expected to report revenue and net income growth at a CAGR of 5.19% and 2.98%, respectively. For now, Mr. Market remains somewhat positive, since these long-term projections and FY2022 estimates remain in line since our previous analysis in August, though slightly discounted by -2.9% since May 2022. Its upcoming earnings call will make or break AAPL's stock performance, as the EU enters its first winter without Russian gas and the Feds continue to fight against the rising inflation through 2023.In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.Apple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed RealityAnAppleA Day Keeps The Portfolio Healthy (And Potentially, Recession At Bay)CanAppleBe The New Tesla - Smartphone On Wheels By 2025?So, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQAAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 22.92x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.63x and 21.94x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $142.84, down -21.91% from its 52 weeks high of $182.94, though at a premium of 10.69% from its 52 weeks low of $129.04. With a consensus estimate price target of $188.22, it is apparent that there is still a notable 32.10% upside from current pricesAAPL & SPY 5Y/1Y Stock PriceS&P Capital IQBoth stocks also have had a relatively interesting co-existing relationship in their performance thus far, naturally, since AAPL accounts for 7.1% of the S&P 500 Index weighting. While APPL obviously had better returns thus far for the past 5Y at 289.6% and 10Y at 597.4%, the S&P 500 has also fared comparatively decent with 57.4% and 204.2%, respectively. These numbers are impressive, given that many other stocks have been decimated thus far.With the stocks trading below their 50 and 100-day moving averages, both look relatively attractive, considering the massive returns upon market recovery by Q1'23. Naturally, the market will always be full of pitfalls for anyone who tries to pitch the perfect timing, since there may still be some downsides from current levels. As a result, investors with higher risk tolerances may consider nibbling at these levels, fully understanding the great importance of AAPL through the next decade.Otherwise, conservative investors (like myself) will be waiting for more clarity from its upcoming earnings call, since the whole market seems to be heading for destruction one way or another. With little catalyst for short-term recovery, the AAPL stock will be testing the June lows of $130s over the next week or so. If that support level is breached, my oh my, we are in for a catastrophic rollercoaster ride indeed. Good luck all.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912686808,"gmtCreate":1664831586904,"gmtModify":1676537513355,"author":{"id":"3576886000348777","authorId":"3576886000348777","name":"fcbergkamp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e9eb882539241da2e9a7180b0b6413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576886000348777","idStr":"3576886000348777"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912686808","repostId":"1155119620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155119620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664810520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155119620?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Hello Recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155119620","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Hallow","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>A friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4&#39;22 earnings on 27 October 2022.</li><li>It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Halloween.</li><li>If the reports were indeed true, we might see the company report impacted earnings for H2&#39;22.</li><li>That would put more downward pressure on the stock performance of the world&#39;s largest market cap company, which has been greatly see-sawing for the past year.</li><li>Tragic indeed, since we were more hopeful.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) throne as the world&#39;s most valuable company seems a little shaky, with the onslaught of negative news thus far. The company had to cut itsiPhone14 production output by -6.66%, back to its original plan of 90M handsets, similar to previous releases. On one hand, we expect some of those headwinds to be well balanced by the robust demand for its premium models, compensating for the lost volume with higher margins. On the other hand, it is apparent that the rising inflation, record high oil/gas prices, China&#39;s economic slump (one of AAPL&#39;s best markets), and geopolitical issues in the EU are impacting consumers&#39; discretionary spending, with the global smartphone market expected to deflate by -6.5% in 2022 to 1.27B units instead.</p><p>It remains to be seen if the Cupertino giant will suffer financially during this economic downturn, since the previous recession in 2008 had impacted AAPL&#39;s top and bottom lines growth to a certain extent. The company reported a notable YoY growth of 14.4% in revenues and 34.69% in net incomes for FY2009, compared to 52.5% and 75.07% in FY2009. The recessionary impacts were considerably mild then, since consumer discretionary spending remained relatively robust for the company.</p><p>Nonetheless, we are already starting to see some stock weaknesses. AAPL has continuously failed to break its resistance level at the $180s and, consequently, lost -22.10% of its value from its peak levels in March and August 2022. The S&amp;P 500 Index had also plunged by -24.10% YTD, indicating peak market pessimism and fear levels. During the previous recession, both stocks had tanked, with AAPL reporting a -52.21% plunge and the S&amp;P 500 a -43.37% plunge between August and December 2008.</p><p>However, all hope is not lost, since the September CPI released in early October may provide the potential catalyst for the stock market&#39;s recovery, due to the Fed&#39;s projected terminal rate of4.6% by 2023. This potentially indicates a 75 basis point hike in November, with January 2023 moderating with a 50 basis point hike. Therefore, we may speculatively assume that most of the pessimism is already baked in, barring an earnings miss ahead. We shall see.</p><p><b>Mr. Market Is Still Hopeful About This Last Frontier</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6e5a1cae35b8931343e48558a302b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>For FQ4&#39;22, AAPL is expected to report revenues of $88.74B and operating margins of 27.4%, representing an increase of 6.96% though a moderation of 0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, an increase of 6.45% and a decline of -1.1 percentage points YoY, respectively, with the latter attributed to the rising costs. It remains to be seen if AAPL will be able to achieve its previous guidance of accelerated sales and gross margins between 41.5% to 42.5% for FQ4&#39;22.</p><p>In contrast, consensus estimates that AAPL will report net incomes of $20.37B and net income margins of 23% for the upcoming quarter, indicating certain headwinds to its profitability, with a minimal increase of 4.78% and a decline of -0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, a notable decline of -0.87% and -1.7 percentage points YoY, respectively. With an estimated EPS of $1.27 for FQ4&#39;22, AAPL would be looking at a decent 5.83% QoQ and 2.07% YoY growth. It might just be enough to satisfy Mr. Market&#39;s highly pessimistic outlook, preserving its cult stock status ahead.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4647325ee184db498185ed216ae70003\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Nonetheless, Mr. Market is cautiously confident about AAPL&#39;s projected cash flow, with a Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $21.89B and an FCF margin of 24.6% in FQ4&#39;22. It indicated a decent improvement of 5.29% and -0.5 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, massive YoY growth of 28.91% and 4.2 percentage points, respectively. AAPL&#39;s chances of success would be higher as well, assuming aggressive cost cuts across the board. We shall see, given the historical trend of elevated capital expenditures thus far, especially in FQ4s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2272b2e2674db1028a34156cdb527164\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Over the next four years, AAPL is expected to report revenue and net income growth at a CAGR of 5.19% and 2.98%, respectively. For now, Mr. Market remains somewhat positive, since these long-term projections and FY2022 estimates remain in line since our previous analysis in August, though slightly discounted by -2.9% since May 2022. Its upcoming earnings call will make or break AAPL&#39;s stock performance, as the EU enters its first winter without Russian gas and the Feds continue to fight against the rising inflation through 2023.</p><p>In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.</p><ul><li>Apple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed Reality</li><li>AnAppleA Day Keeps The Portfolio Healthy (And Potentially, Recession At Bay)</li><li>CanAppleBe The New Tesla - Smartphone On Wheels By 2025?</li></ul><p><b>So, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36ca45afe53753e7a5a6854436f2769\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>AAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 22.92x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.63x and 21.94x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $142.84, down -21.91% from its 52 weeks high of $182.94, though at a premium of 10.69% from its 52 weeks low of $129.04. With a consensus estimate price target of $188.22, it is apparent that there is still a notable 32.10% upside from current prices</p><p><b>AAPL &amp; SPY 5Y/1Y Stock Price</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1e569f2277b0630924e459640a4bc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Both stocks also have had a relatively interesting co-existing relationship in their performance thus far, naturally, since AAPL accounts for 7.1% of the S&amp;P 500 Index weighting. While APPL obviously had better returns thus far for the past 5Y at 289.6% and 10Y at 597.4%, the S&amp;P 500 has also fared comparatively decent with 57.4% and 204.2%, respectively. These numbers are impressive, given that many other stocks have been decimated thus far.</p><p>With the stocks trading below their 50 and 100-day moving averages, both look relatively attractive, considering the massive returns upon market recovery by Q1&#39;23. Naturally, the market will always be full of pitfalls for anyone who tries to pitch the perfect timing, since there may still be some downsides from current levels. As a result, investors with higher risk tolerances may consider nibbling at these levels, fully understanding the great importance of AAPL through the next decade.</p><p>Otherwise, conservative investors (like myself) will be waiting for more clarity from its upcoming earnings call, since the whole market seems to be heading for destruction one way or another. With little catalyst for short-term recovery, the AAPL stock will be testing the June lows of $130s over the next week or so. If that support level is breached, my oh my, we are in for a catastrophic rollercoaster ride indeed. Good luck all.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Hello Recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Hello Recession\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-03 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155119620","content_text":"SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Halloween.If the reports were indeed true, we might see the company report impacted earnings for H2'22.That would put more downward pressure on the stock performance of the world's largest market cap company, which has been greatly see-sawing for the past year.Tragic indeed, since we were more hopeful.Investment ThesisApple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) throne as the world's most valuable company seems a little shaky, with the onslaught of negative news thus far. The company had to cut itsiPhone14 production output by -6.66%, back to its original plan of 90M handsets, similar to previous releases. On one hand, we expect some of those headwinds to be well balanced by the robust demand for its premium models, compensating for the lost volume with higher margins. On the other hand, it is apparent that the rising inflation, record high oil/gas prices, China's economic slump (one of AAPL's best markets), and geopolitical issues in the EU are impacting consumers' discretionary spending, with the global smartphone market expected to deflate by -6.5% in 2022 to 1.27B units instead.It remains to be seen if the Cupertino giant will suffer financially during this economic downturn, since the previous recession in 2008 had impacted AAPL's top and bottom lines growth to a certain extent. The company reported a notable YoY growth of 14.4% in revenues and 34.69% in net incomes for FY2009, compared to 52.5% and 75.07% in FY2009. The recessionary impacts were considerably mild then, since consumer discretionary spending remained relatively robust for the company.Nonetheless, we are already starting to see some stock weaknesses. AAPL has continuously failed to break its resistance level at the $180s and, consequently, lost -22.10% of its value from its peak levels in March and August 2022. The S&P 500 Index had also plunged by -24.10% YTD, indicating peak market pessimism and fear levels. During the previous recession, both stocks had tanked, with AAPL reporting a -52.21% plunge and the S&P 500 a -43.37% plunge between August and December 2008.However, all hope is not lost, since the September CPI released in early October may provide the potential catalyst for the stock market's recovery, due to the Fed's projected terminal rate of4.6% by 2023. This potentially indicates a 75 basis point hike in November, with January 2023 moderating with a 50 basis point hike. Therefore, we may speculatively assume that most of the pessimism is already baked in, barring an earnings miss ahead. We shall see.Mr. Market Is Still Hopeful About This Last FrontierS&P Capital IQFor FQ4'22, AAPL is expected to report revenues of $88.74B and operating margins of 27.4%, representing an increase of 6.96% though a moderation of 0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, an increase of 6.45% and a decline of -1.1 percentage points YoY, respectively, with the latter attributed to the rising costs. It remains to be seen if AAPL will be able to achieve its previous guidance of accelerated sales and gross margins between 41.5% to 42.5% for FQ4'22.In contrast, consensus estimates that AAPL will report net incomes of $20.37B and net income margins of 23% for the upcoming quarter, indicating certain headwinds to its profitability, with a minimal increase of 4.78% and a decline of -0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, a notable decline of -0.87% and -1.7 percentage points YoY, respectively. With an estimated EPS of $1.27 for FQ4'22, AAPL would be looking at a decent 5.83% QoQ and 2.07% YoY growth. It might just be enough to satisfy Mr. Market's highly pessimistic outlook, preserving its cult stock status ahead.S&P Capital IQNonetheless, Mr. Market is cautiously confident about AAPL's projected cash flow, with a Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $21.89B and an FCF margin of 24.6% in FQ4'22. It indicated a decent improvement of 5.29% and -0.5 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, massive YoY growth of 28.91% and 4.2 percentage points, respectively. AAPL's chances of success would be higher as well, assuming aggressive cost cuts across the board. We shall see, given the historical trend of elevated capital expenditures thus far, especially in FQ4s.S&P Capital IQOver the next four years, AAPL is expected to report revenue and net income growth at a CAGR of 5.19% and 2.98%, respectively. For now, Mr. Market remains somewhat positive, since these long-term projections and FY2022 estimates remain in line since our previous analysis in August, though slightly discounted by -2.9% since May 2022. Its upcoming earnings call will make or break AAPL's stock performance, as the EU enters its first winter without Russian gas and the Feds continue to fight against the rising inflation through 2023.In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.Apple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed RealityAnAppleA Day Keeps The Portfolio Healthy (And Potentially, Recession At Bay)CanAppleBe The New Tesla - Smartphone On Wheels By 2025?So, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQAAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 22.92x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.63x and 21.94x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $142.84, down -21.91% from its 52 weeks high of $182.94, though at a premium of 10.69% from its 52 weeks low of $129.04. With a consensus estimate price target of $188.22, it is apparent that there is still a notable 32.10% upside from current pricesAAPL & SPY 5Y/1Y Stock PriceS&P Capital IQBoth stocks also have had a relatively interesting co-existing relationship in their performance thus far, naturally, since AAPL accounts for 7.1% of the S&P 500 Index weighting. While APPL obviously had better returns thus far for the past 5Y at 289.6% and 10Y at 597.4%, the S&P 500 has also fared comparatively decent with 57.4% and 204.2%, respectively. These numbers are impressive, given that many other stocks have been decimated thus far.With the stocks trading below their 50 and 100-day moving averages, both look relatively attractive, considering the massive returns upon market recovery by Q1'23. Naturally, the market will always be full of pitfalls for anyone who tries to pitch the perfect timing, since there may still be some downsides from current levels. As a result, investors with higher risk tolerances may consider nibbling at these levels, fully understanding the great importance of AAPL through the next decade.Otherwise, conservative investors (like myself) will be waiting for more clarity from its upcoming earnings call, since the whole market seems to be heading for destruction one way or another. With little catalyst for short-term recovery, the AAPL stock will be testing the June lows of $130s over the next week or so. If that support level is breached, my oh my, we are in for a catastrophic rollercoaster ride indeed. Good luck all.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}