Profile - To The Moon

猫虎分不清楚

Posts · 73Posts · 73
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- 猫虎分不清楚猫虎分不清楚
  ·2021-06-24
  666
  Xun Yugen's latest research and judgment: the market will welcome the "fruit of midsummer"
  时至夏日，A股市场能否开启“夏季行情”？对此，海通证券首席经济学家荀玉根认为，市场将迎接“盛夏的果实”。 6月23日，海通证券举行了以“穿越通胀迷雾”为主题的中期策略会。荀玉根表示，通胀压力下半年有望
  Xun Yugen's latest research and judgment: the market will welcome the "fruit of midsummer"
  381 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3579221316027784","uuid":"3579221316027784","gmtCreate":1616127292220,"gmtModify":1618905289575,"name":"猫虎分不清楚","pinyin":"mhfbqcmaohufenbuqingchu","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c64bc99532360ae9d3161fc5f73b591","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":8,"tweetSize":73,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":2,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[],"userBadgeCount":0,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":128360772,"gmtCreate":1624502162696,"gmtModify":1703838554785,"author":{"id":"3579221316027784","authorId":"3579221316027784","name":"猫虎分不清楚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c64bc99532360ae9d3161fc5f73b591","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579221316027784","authorIdStr":"3579221316027784"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128360772","repostId":"1199009156","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199009156","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624499053,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199009156?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 09:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Xun Yugen's latest research and judgment: the market will welcome the \"fruit of midsummer\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199009156","media":"中国证券网","summary":"时至夏日，A股市场能否开启“夏季行情”？对此，海通证券首席经济学家荀玉根认为，市场将迎接“盛夏的果实”。\n6月23日，海通证券举行了以“穿越通胀迷雾”为主题的中期策略会。荀玉根表示，通胀压力下半年有望","content":"<p><div>In summer, can the A-share market start the \"summer market\"? In this regard, Xun Yugen, chief economist of Haitong Securities, believes that the market will welcome the \"fruits of midsummer\". On June 23, Haitong Securities held a medium-term strategy meeting with the theme of \"Crossing the Fog of Inflation\". Xun Yugen said that inflationary pressure is expected to ease in the second half of the year, and the bull market is not over; The structure should be surprisingly upright. The leading high-quality companies represented by the Mao Index are still in a better allocation direction, and the intelligent manufacturing field with faster profit growth and compliance with policy directions is more flexible. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst at Haitong Securities, believes that the economy and policy in the second half of the year are expected to continue...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aq4VWbVJZ-HDC_rYbDjeBg\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xun Yugen's latest research and judgment: the market will welcome the \"fruit of midsummer\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXun Yugen's latest research and judgment: the market will welcome the \"fruit of midsummer\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>In summer, can the A-share market start the \"summer market\"? In this regard, Xun Yugen, chief economist of Haitong Securities, believes that the market will welcome the \"fruits of midsummer\". On June 23, Haitong Securities held a medium-term strategy meeting with the theme of \"Crossing the Fog of Inflation\". Xun Yugen said that inflationary pressure is expected to ease in the second half of the year, and the bull market is not over; The structure should be surprisingly upright. The leading high-quality companies represented by the Mao Index are still in a better allocation direction, and the intelligent manufacturing field with faster profit growth and compliance with policy directions is more flexible. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst at Haitong Securities, believes that the economy and policy in the second half of the year are expected to continue...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aq4VWbVJZ-HDC_rYbDjeBg\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aq4VWbVJZ-HDC_rYbDjeBg\">中国证券网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aq4VWbVJZ-HDC_rYbDjeBg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199009156","content_text":"时至夏日，A股市场能否开启“夏季行情”？对此，海通证券首席经济学家荀玉根认为，市场将迎接“盛夏的果实”。\n6月23日，海通证券举行了以“穿越通胀迷雾”为主题的中期策略会。荀玉根表示，通胀压力下半年有望缓解，牛市并未结束；结构上应守正出奇，以茅指数为代表的龙头优质公司仍是较好配置方向，盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造领域更有弹性。海通证券首席宏观分析师梁中华认为，下半年的经济和政策预计会延续上半年趋势。\n“今年以来，价格上行幅度超出之前市场一致预期，投资者担忧投资时钟进入滞胀期，大类资产的表现也反映了这种担忧。展望今年下半年，我们认为通胀压力将逐渐缓解，剔除基数影响，真实的投资时钟处在过热期，企业盈利依旧在扩张。市场在盛夏迎来较好窗口期，可迎接盛夏的果实。”荀玉根说。\n\n本轮盈利回升周期在时间空间上都没走完\n荀玉根团队经过测算表示，今年宏观环境整体处在去年10月以来“流动性下+基本面上+通胀上”的过热期，根据其改进版模型，股票市场依旧有机会。\n“目前市场担忧通胀可能会导致企业盈利下滑，从而使本轮盈利高点提前到来。分析通胀和盈利之间的关系，我们发现，通胀前期盈利继续扩张，后期才会收缩。”荀玉根说，以历史周期视角看，今年处于通胀前期。\n荀玉根认为，参考历史，本轮盈利回升周期在时间和空间上都没走完。展望未来，A股估值中枢正在抬升中。虽然短期看，目前A股估值略偏贵，但从中长期视角看，A股估值中枢有望上移。这源于三个层面的原因：一是ROE（净资产收益率）上行，当前我国经济步入产业结构转型期，在5G、新能源技术等领域已取得一定优势，以智能制造为代表的高附加值制造业正快速崛起；二是利率下行；三是居民资产配置转向权益市场。\n荀玉根表示，通过统计A股各主要股指在2000年至2020年间每一年的振幅来看，上证综指2000年以来年振幅基本都在25%以上，沪深300振幅在30%以上，万得全A也在30%以上。而今年以来，这三大指数的振幅分别只有12%、21%和15%，如果前期低点有效，则参考历史股指的波动幅度，今年股市还有进一步向上的空间。\n茅指数公司长期依然值得配置\n荀玉根表示，当前A股出现新分化，展望2021年下半年，海通证券认为守正出奇方能致胜。“守正出奇”即以茅指数为代表的第一梯队超大市值公司仍然值得配置，但产业升级大趋势下，中大盘股中的智能制造板块才是获取超额收益的关键。\n“今年2月18日后，茅指数深度回调，有部分投资者认为茅指数成分股估值太贵，下跌预示着好景难再。但我们认为，在业绩稳定和外资偏好的支撑下，茅指数春节后的回调只是性价比的自我修正，未来有望进一步上涨。”荀玉根说，2016年至今，茅指数逐渐显现长牛趋势，走势与美股纳斯达克指数相近，均在快速上涨之后进入调整稳固阶段，随后再创新高。\n他认为，目前在外资持续超配之下，估值中枢上移已在茅指数上有所体现，未来随着A股机构化、国际化趋势继续演进，以茅指数为代表的龙头公司的长牛特征将越来越明显，春节以来的回调只是性价比的自我修正，长期看仍然值得配置。\n“A股估值中枢抬升是一个渐进的过程，很多投资者担心茅指数公司估值处于历史高位，面临一定压力，但我的判断是，它们估值抬高是正常的现象。A股估值中枢抬高过程中，优质公司估值会优先抬高。因此，对于优质的公司，要做好‘守正’，伴随公司成长长期持有。”荀玉根说。\n与此同时，荀玉根也认为，随着经济逐渐步入正轨，以茅指数为代表的超大盘股在基本面上的相对优势不会像去年那么极致，中大盘股的性价比更高。未来A股200亿至800亿元的中大市值公司有望进一步变大变强。\n今年是“十四五”开局之年，以科技创新突破核心技术是当前重大目标，科技赋能制造业是未来发展趋势。在此背景下，荀玉根判断今年智能制造有望崛起。沿着“中国智能制造”的主线，荀玉根认为可从三个方向挖掘投资机会：信息技术的应用、新能源技术的应用、传统制造技术改进与升级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}