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- 超会嗷呜超会嗷呜
  ·2021-08-10
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- 超会嗷呜超会嗷呜
  ·2021-08-07
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  SOHO China: Blackstone's HK $23.6 billion acquisition was reviewed by the State Administration for Market Regulation
  黑石集团以5港元/股的价格，总共收购SOHO中国约28.56亿股股份。
  SOHO China: Blackstone's HK $23.6 billion acquisition was reviewed by the State Administration for Market Regulation
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- 超会嗷呜超会嗷呜
  ·2021-08-01
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  The U.S. economy in the second quarter was "soft externally and rigid internally"
  报告正文 1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚” 事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。资料来源：BEA
  The U.S. economy in the second quarter was "soft externally and rigid internally"
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- 超会嗷呜超会嗷呜
  ·2021-07-21
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On the evening of August 6, SOHO China Co., Ltd. and Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited (the Offeror) jointly issued an announcement. SOHO China and the Offeror jointly issued an announcement dated June 16, 2021, regarding Goldman Sachs (Asia) Limited Liability Company makes a voluntary conditional cash offer with preconditions on behalf of the Offeror to acquire all issued shares of SOHO China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"pengpai_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SOHO China: Blackstone's HK $23.6 billion acquisition was reviewed by the State Administration for Market Regulation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSOHO China: Blackstone's HK $23.6 billion acquisition was reviewed by the State Administration for Market Regulation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">澎湃新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-07 00:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter Li Xiaoqing A HK $23.6 billion transaction between SOHO China and Blackstone Group was formally filed for review by the State Administration for Market Regulation. On the evening of August 6, SOHO China Co., Ltd. and Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited (the Offeror) jointly issued an announcement. SOHO China and the Offeror jointly issued an announcement dated June 16, 2021, regarding Goldman Sachs (Asia) Limited Liability Company makes a voluntary conditional cash offer with preconditions on behalf of the Offeror to acquire all issued shares of SOHO China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329\">澎湃新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b062bbd85848c3ea66f8fca10f2c9937","relate_stocks":{"00410":"SOHO中国","BX":"黑石"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_13924329","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190418068","content_text":"记者 李晓青\nSOHO中国和黑石集团的一笔236亿港元的交易，获得了市场监管总局正式立案审查。\n8月6日晚间，SOHO中国有限公司及Two Cities Master Holdings II Limited（要约方）联合发布公告，SOHO中国与要约方联合刊发日期为2021年6月16日的公告，内容有关高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司代表要约方作出附先决条件自愿性有条件现金要约以收购SOHO中国全部已发行股份；及SOHO中国与要约方联合刊发日期为2021年7月6日的公告，内容有关延迟寄发综合文件。\nSOHO中国称，自联合公告发出后，要约方已向中国国家市场监管总局提交并购审查申报相关文件及材料。自延迟寄发公告发出后，要约方已提供进一步文件及材料，以回应监管机构关于补充额外信息的要求。\n2021年8月3日，要约方收到中国国家市场监管总局于2021年8月2日签发的通知，对要约方根据《中国反垄断法》提交的申报正式立案审查。尽管该申报已获正式立案，要约方及SOHO中国仍可能被要求提供进一步信息及材料供监管机构审查。截至目前，没有任何先决条件已获达成。\n在此前的6月16日，SOHO中国公告，高盛代表黑石集团以5港元/股的价格，总共收购SOHO中国约28.56亿股股份，交易价格约236.57亿港元。每股收购的价格较最后交易日的收盘价3.8港元/股溢价约31.6%。\n交易完成后，SOHO中国现有控股股东将保留9%的股权，SOHO中国将继续在香港证券交易所上市。\nSOHO中国在公告中表示，黑石集团计划维持SOHO中国现有的主营业务和管理层，并计划在适当的情况下利用公司的资源在中国进行扩张。要约完成后，黑石集团计划对公司进行详细的战略审查，以制定公司未来业务发展的业务计划和战略，并确定为优化和合理化公司的业务活动和资产组合而采取的适当或可取的措施。\nSOHO中国2020年的年报数据显示，公司实现营业收入约21.92亿元，同比增长约19%。其中，租金收入15.37亿元，同比下降16%，出售物业收入6.54亿元。税前利润约16亿元，同比下降约17%；毛利13.9亿元，同比减少7.9%；净利润5.43亿元，同比减少58.8%；净资产负债率约为43%，平均借贷成本约4.7%，总资产约707.04亿元，总负债约331.57亿元。\n截至今日收盘，SOHO中国报3.22港元/股，涨幅1.26%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BX":0.9,"00410":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802663397,"gmtCreate":1627777268019,"gmtModify":1703495612383,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581586310901443","authorIdStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802663397","repostId":"2156060165","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156060165","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627773600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156060165?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 07:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The U.S. economy in the second quarter was \"soft externally and rigid internally\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156060165","media":"赵伟宏观探索","summary":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n","content":"<p>Report text</p><p>1. Weekly Topic 2: The U.S. economy in the second quarter is \"soft externally and rigid internally\"</p><p>Event: On July 29, the United States released the latest GDP data for the second quarter. Among them, the annualized GDP rate in the second quarter was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Comments:</p><p>Although the annualized GDP rate of the United States in the second quarter was lower than expected, it hit a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. According to the latest data released, the annualized GDP rate of the United States in the second quarter reached 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it was lower than expected, the annualized rate of 6.5% from the previous month has set a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of the main sub-items of U.S. GDP, the annualized rate of private consumption in the second quarter reached 11.8%, exceeding the previous value of 11.4%, the annualized rate of private investment was-3.5%, which was lower than the previous value of-2.3%, and the annualized rate of exports was 6%, which was greatly ahead of the previous value of-2.9%, and the annualized rate of imports was 7.8%, which was lower than the previous value of 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the U.S. economy, both commodity consumption and service consumption are showing a good growth trend. The pull rate of private consumption on U.S. GDP in the second quarter was as high as 7.8%, far higher than private investment and net exports. Among private consumption, although the growth rate of commodity consumption has declined, the annualized rate of 11.6% from the previous month still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. The performance of service consumption is even better, with an annualized rate of 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The month-on-month annualized rate of 12% is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of U.S. service consumption in the same period since 2009 of 3.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, construction investment and inventory have dropped significantly, which is the main reason why the GDP of the United States in the second quarter is lower than expected. In the second quarter of the United States, the annualized pull rate of private investment to GDP was-0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. Among private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, and both real estate investment and non-real estate investment fell. Further, among non-real estate investments, the annualized rate of construction investment turned from positive to negative, with the worst performance. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, private inventories in the United States declined significantly in the second quarter, driving GDP at an annualized rate of-1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in construction investment in the United States may be more dragged down by rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of the U.S. real estate market has been at a relatively high level, house prices have continued to accelerate, and the \"short supply\" of new houses has appeared in many places and is \"getting worse\". The \"contrarian\" decline in real estate investment may be more dragged down by the soaring prices of raw materials. According to the data, the price of wood, as a construction raw material, soared by nearly 90% from January to May, and the absolute level frequently hit record highs. The sharp rise in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment using the same construction raw materials. The continued shrinkage of employment in the U.S. construction industry is a direct manifestation of this impact.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline of private inventory in the United States is not due to poor demand, but a \"passive\" decline due to a large increase in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, the inventories of U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers and retailers all fell. However, contrary to the intuitive feeling, the decline of private sector inventories in the United States is the \"result\" of the surge in demand, rather than a reflection of the failure of demand. Taking retailers and wholesalers as examples, driven by the substantial expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales have accelerated their growth, and the absolute level has long exceeded that before the epidemic. However, due to the relatively insufficient domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish their inventories, but continued to passively \"destock\", and the inventory-to-sales ratio both fell to historical lows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking forward to the future, with the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the gradual end of the epidemic, and the rapid growth of residents' salary income, private consumption in the United States may continue to improve, forming a strong support for the economy. With the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the number of new deaths in the United States continues to be low, and the process of economic unblocking is progressing in an orderly manner. While the lifting of the blockade has enhanced economic vitality, the rapid growth of the salary income of U.S. residents has pushed the total income level to continue to be higher than the historical trend. The steady income growth of residents and the savings rate greatly pushed up by previous fiscal stimulus will jointly drive the continued improvement of private consumption. As the \"ballast stone\" of the U.S. economy, the improving trend of private consumption means that the economy as a whole will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in the prices of raw materials such as timber and the substantial increase in new orders also mean that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting steady economic growth. On the one hand, since late May, the substantial increase in supply has driven timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. Affected by this, U.S. real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment may gradually rebound in the future. At the same time, with the substantial increase in new orders in the manufacturing industry, the improvement of the superimposed epidemic situation and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the private sector in the United States may begin to enter the \"replenishment\" channel. Inventory replenishment and rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Risk warning</p><p>The U.S. government is once again facing a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>","source":"lsy1594946959994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The U.S. economy in the second quarter was \"soft externally and rigid internally\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe U.S. economy in the second quarter was \"soft externally and rigid internally\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">赵伟宏观探索</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 07:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Report text</p><p>1. Weekly Topic 2: The U.S. economy in the second quarter is \"soft externally and rigid internally\"</p><p>Event: On July 29, the United States released the latest GDP data for the second quarter. Among them, the annualized GDP rate in the second quarter was 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%.</p><p>Source: BEA</p><p>Comments:</p><p>Although the annualized GDP rate of the United States in the second quarter was lower than expected, it hit a new high for the same period in more than 20 years. According to the latest data released, the annualized GDP rate of the United States in the second quarter reached 6.5%, lower than the expected 8.4% and higher than the previous value of 6.3%. Although it was lower than expected, the annualized rate of 6.5% from the previous month has set a new high for the same period since 2001. In terms of the main sub-items of U.S. GDP, the annualized rate of private consumption in the second quarter reached 11.8%, exceeding the previous value of 11.4%, the annualized rate of private investment was-3.5%, which was lower than the previous value of-2.3%, and the annualized rate of exports was 6%, which was greatly ahead of the previous value of-2.9%, and the annualized rate of imports was 7.8%, which was lower than the previous value of 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ef7ac4189e9deccab60b8a256099e4\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb30533af8c7fd95bb774689181b81d2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c992a70935c5a9853e284b5c2029c28\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726b8c778c79fc75e7ec136e07b8de5f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the U.S. economy, both commodity consumption and service consumption are showing a good growth trend. The pull rate of private consumption on U.S. GDP in the second quarter was as high as 7.8%, far higher than private investment and net exports. Among private consumption, although the growth rate of commodity consumption has declined, the annualized rate of 11.6% from the previous month still far exceeds the level of the same period since 2009. The performance of service consumption is even better, with an annualized rate of 12% in the second quarter, far exceeding the previous value of 3.9%. The month-on-month annualized rate of 12% is nearly 9 percentage points higher than the highest level of U.S. service consumption in the same period since 2009 of 3.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7218ab2c68f258bdfc59094ea8200471\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c434fe9c1d72a63d95b0815aa4fe7823\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb707512c9e380751f4b8bfde6c0d64\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b495b9d34a43e822fe76cca4091189b\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Contrary to the performance of consumption, construction investment and inventory have dropped significantly, which is the main reason why the GDP of the United States in the second quarter is lower than expected. In the second quarter of the United States, the annualized pull rate of private investment to GDP was-0.6%, far less than the 7.8% of private consumption. Among private investment, fixed assets performed poorly, and both real estate investment and non-real estate investment fell. Further, among non-real estate investments, the annualized rate of construction investment turned from positive to negative, with the worst performance. Similar to the performance of real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment, private inventories in the United States declined significantly in the second quarter, driving GDP at an annualized rate of-1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8a426a0df73c1fd1d11766d5423542\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff362f0765f6745bb6fe3c9f84e4a99\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cca829157bc8b1a69bb96de2a79575\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c7ccb5ede1b9271853fc5544f6f4d1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in construction investment in the United States may be more dragged down by rising raw material prices. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of the U.S. real estate market has been at a relatively high level, house prices have continued to accelerate, and the \"short supply\" of new houses has appeared in many places and is \"getting worse\". The \"contrarian\" decline in real estate investment may be more dragged down by the soaring prices of raw materials. According to the data, the price of wood, as a construction raw material, soared by nearly 90% from January to May, and the absolute level frequently hit record highs. The sharp rise in raw material prices has directly impacted real estate investment, as well as non-real estate construction investment using the same construction raw materials. The continued shrinkage of employment in the U.S. construction industry is a direct manifestation of this impact.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a901fc62eb1997b981141c6185dd0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed3203bae559d7dcb2a41a573ec751f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline of private inventory in the United States is not due to poor demand, but a \"passive\" decline due to a large increase in demand and insufficient supply. In the second quarter, the inventories of U.S. manufacturing, wholesalers and retailers all fell. However, contrary to the intuitive feeling, the decline of private sector inventories in the United States is the \"result\" of the surge in demand, rather than a reflection of the failure of demand. Taking retailers and wholesalers as examples, driven by the substantial expansion of demand, both retail sales and wholesale sales have accelerated their growth, and the absolute level has long exceeded that before the epidemic. However, due to the relatively insufficient domestic production capacity, retailers and wholesalers not only failed to replenish their inventories, but continued to passively \"destock\", and the inventory-to-sales ratio both fell to historical lows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8275e996ce33a8dc95cdf713196627cd\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ffda1b94e0f45fabf641f337ad85b5\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking forward to the future, with the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the gradual end of the epidemic, and the rapid growth of residents' salary income, private consumption in the United States may continue to improve, forming a strong support for the economy. With the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the number of new deaths in the United States continues to be low, and the process of economic unblocking is progressing in an orderly manner. While the lifting of the blockade has enhanced economic vitality, the rapid growth of the salary income of U.S. residents has pushed the total income level to continue to be higher than the historical trend. The steady income growth of residents and the savings rate greatly pushed up by previous fiscal stimulus will jointly drive the continued improvement of private consumption. As the \"ballast stone\" of the U.S. economy, the improving trend of private consumption means that the economy as a whole will have strong endogenous growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e74d24c20e83062278f0e4ef5304c45\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c54b46899e9e9c64f44d30c6c43a09\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618c1b51ed88e729044fb63c74d238da\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2481c6943d45202b7d32fb4b96bf2a\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in the prices of raw materials such as timber and the substantial increase in new orders also mean that private investment in the United States is expected to rebound, further supporting steady economic growth. On the one hand, since late May, the substantial increase in supply has driven timber prices to peak and fall, accelerating their decline. Affected by this, U.S. real estate investment and non-real estate construction investment may gradually rebound in the future. At the same time, with the substantial increase in new orders in the manufacturing industry, the improvement of the superimposed epidemic situation and the accelerated recovery of industrial production, the private sector in the United States may begin to enter the \"replenishment\" channel. Inventory replenishment and rebound in fixed asset investment will further support the steady growth of the US economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6566899684e7c7b4c503e1ab87dc9297\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a94488fa854d761ee8b7fad4dac3c1\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f3c58293aef01f41fce939d2966467\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525f39eb4c1d3c4f58ee057ac841e00a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Risk warning</p><p>The U.S. government is once again facing a \"fiscal cliff\".</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml\">赵伟宏观探索</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e627a03ee5b704af2439f58218d555","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-08-01/doc-ikqciyzk8806581.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156060165","content_text":"报告正文\n1、周度专题二：美国2季度经济“外柔内刚”\n事件：7月29日，美国公布最新的2季度GDP数据。其中，2季度GDP环比折年率为6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。\n资料来源：BEA\n点评：\n美国2季度GDP环比折年率虽然不及预期，但创下逾20年同期新高。最新公布的数据显示，美国2季度GDP环比折年率达6.5%，低于预期8.4%，高于前值6.3%。虽然不及预期，但6.5%的环比折年率水平，已经刷新了2001年以来同期新高。美国GDP主要分项方面，2季度私人消费环比折年率达11.8%、超过前值11.4%，私人投资环比折年率为-3.5%、不及前值-2.3%，出口环比折年率为6%、大超前值-2.9%，进口环比折年率为7.8%、较前值9.3%有所回落。\n\n美国经济中，无论是商品消费、还是服务消费，都呈现良好增长态势。私人消费对美国2季度GDP环比折年的拉动率高达7.8%，远远高出私人投资及净出口等。私人消费中，商品消费尽管增速有所回落，但11.6%的环比折年率，依然远远超过了2009年以来的同期水平。服务消费的表现更是优异，2季度环比折年率达到12%，远超前值3.9%。12%的环比折年率，比美国服务消费2009年以来同期最高水平3.1%，高出了近9个百分点。\n\n与消费的表现相反，建筑类投资及库存出现明显回落，是美国2季度GDP不及预期的主因。美国2季度私人投资对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-0.6%，远不及私人消费的7.8%。私人投资中，固定资产表现不佳，地产投资及非地产投资双双回落。进一步来看，非地产投资中，建筑投资环比折年率由正转负，表现最差。与地产投资及非地产建筑投资的表现相似，2季度美国私人库存出现明显下滑，对GDP环比折年率的拉动率为-1.1%。\n\n美国建筑类投资的下滑，可能更多是受原材料价格上涨的拖累。今年以来，美国房地产市场的景气一直处于较高水平，房价持续加速上涨，新房“供不应求”在多地出现、并“愈演愈烈”。地产投资的“逆势”下滑，可能更多是受到原材料价格飙涨的拖累。数据来看，作为建筑原料的木材价格在1月至5月飙涨近90%，绝对水平频频刷新历史新高。原材料价格的大幅上涨，直接冲击了地产投资，以及使用同样建造原料的非地产建筑投资。美国建筑业就业的持续萎缩，是这一冲击的直接体现。\n\n美国私人库存的回落，不是因为需求不行，相反，是需求大增、供应不足下的“被动”回落。2季度，美国制造业、批发商及零售商的库存，均出现回落。但与直观感受不同，美国私人部门库存的回落，是需求大增的“结果”、而非反映需求不行。以零售商、批发商为例，受需求大幅扩张带动，零售销售及批发销售双双加速增长，绝对水平早早超过疫情前。然而，受制于国内生产能力相对不足，零售商及批发商不仅未能补库，反而持续被动“去库”，库存销售比双双降至历史低位。\n\n展望未来，随着疫苗大规模推广、疫情逐步收尾，以及居民薪酬收入快速增长，美国私人消费或将延续持续改善态势，对经济形成有力支持。疫苗大规模推广下，美国新增死亡病例持续低企，经济解封进程有序推进。解封提升经济活力的同时，美国居民薪酬收入的快速增长，推动了总收入水平持续高出历史趋势。居民端稳健的收入增长，以及前期财政刺激大幅推高的储蓄率水平，将共同带动私人消费持续改善。作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费的趋势改善，意味着经济整体将拥有强劲的内生增长动能。\n\n木材等原材料价格的下跌，以及新订单的大幅增长，也意味着美国私人投资有望反弹，进一步支撑经济稳健增长。一方面，5月下旬以来，供应的大幅增加，已带动木材价格见顶回落、加速下跌。受此影响，美国地产投资及非地产建筑类投资，接下来或将逐步反弹。与此同时，随着制造业新订单大幅增长，叠加疫情改善、驱动工业生产加速恢复，美国私人部门或将开始进入到“补库”通道中。库存回补、固定资产投资反弹，将进一步支撑美国经济稳健增长。\n\n2、 风险提示\n美国政府再次面临“财政悬崖”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178295697,"gmtCreate":1626822748819,"gmtModify":1703765705943,"author":{"id":"3581586310901443","authorId":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581586310901443","authorIdStr":"3581586310901443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178295697","repostId":"1193178615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}