Profile - To The Moon

qunz

Posts · 246Posts · 246
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- qunzqunz
  ·01-31 20:38
  This analyst..bearish at Tesla at 200, bearish at AMD bearish at Nio. Bullish on SCMI, all that you need to know LOL
  NIO: This Stock Isn't Going Anywhere
  SummaryNIO remains unprofitable despite increased deliveries and new models, burning significant cash and relying on external financing, leading to shareholder dilution.The ongoing EV price war and ge
  NIO: This Stock Isn't Going Anywhere
  267 Comment
  6
  Share
  Report
- qunzqunz
  ·01-25
  $Mullen Automotive(MULN)$ knowing the trend in Mullen, should run up to above 1 at the minimum
  448 Comment
  180
  Share
  Report
- qunzqunz
  ·01-25
  $Mullen Automotive(MULN)$ Squeeze the shorts. Nice results
  50 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- qunzqunz
  ·2024-12-27
  $NIO-SW(09866)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ targets more or less hit. Next week numbers bout to be explosive. Good luck all see you at double digits.
  1.09K 2
  8
  Share
  Report
- qunzqunz
  ·2024-12-24
  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Great numbers. Hitting targets seem reasonable with this growth. Rock bottom prices for technological EV giant, with ET9 and firefly next year. PS less than 1 is a joke.
  926 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- qunzqunz
  ·2024-12-18
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Short this overpriced trash to the ground
  429 Comment
  4
  Share
  Report
- qunzqunz
  ·2024-12-10
  $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Back to above 10. Doesnt make sense to drop after fantastic earnings In first place. Traders lost out and policy will drive this up.
  494 1
  Like
  Share
  Report
- qunzqunz
  ·2024-12-02
  $XPENG-W(09868)$ Hold untill 50k hkd gains. XPENG about to turn profitable. New models are all a hit!
  624 Comment
  22
  Share
  Report
- qunzqunz
  ·2024-11-20
  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ The first time tesla went cash positive saw huge jumps to triple digits. Nio just did that.
  953 1
  Like
  Share
  Report
- qunzqunz
  ·2024-11-20
  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ No reason to drop from revenue slight miss. Read the fine prints, margins are up, cash flow positive, forecasts ramping to 72k+ this quarter. Yet market cap less than 10B with 6B in cash. Kinda easy to spot such bear traps.
  6.52K 3
  35
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3585253184052412","uuid":"3585253184052412","gmtCreate":1622159159467,"gmtModify":1725373898605,"name":"qunz","pinyin":"qunz","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":36,"headSize":13,"tweetSize":246,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":4,"name":"文化虎","nameTw":"文化虎","represent":"学有所成","factor":"发布30条非转发主帖,其中3条优质帖","iconColor":"8867FB","bgColor":"BDC5FF"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.15%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.02.20","exceedPercentage":"93.41%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577-1","templateUuid":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577","name":"Emerging Contributor","description":"Contributors who received Editor's Pick for the 1st time","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce9180a952c61a51c39f70d533b81a7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98cf16cf4b858114f7ab9a779f9e6f1","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9000980585","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.07.04","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2005},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":7,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":398548800610520,"gmtCreate":1738327085577,"gmtModify":1738327091206,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This analyst..bearish at Tesla at 200, bearish at AMD bearish at Nio. Bullish on SCMI, all that you need to know LOL","listText":"This analyst..bearish at Tesla at 200, bearish at AMD bearish at Nio. Bullish on SCMI, all that you need to know LOL","text":"This analyst..bearish at Tesla at 200, bearish at AMD bearish at Nio. Bullish on SCMI, all that you need to know LOL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/398548800610520","repostId":"1135760641","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135760641","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738325336,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135760641?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-31 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: This Stock Isn't Going Anywhere","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135760641","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNIO remains unprofitable despite increased deliveries and new models, burning significant cash and relying on external financing, leading to shareholder dilution.The ongoing EV price war and ge","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_136732424\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NIO remains unprofitable despite increased deliveries and new models, burning significant cash and relying on external financing, leading to shareholder dilution.</p></li><li><p>The ongoing EV price war and geopolitical challenges hinder NIO&#39;s ability to improve its bottom-line performance and profitability.</p></li><li><p>Macro risks, including China&#39;s economic conditions and potential trade tensions, further limit NIO&#39;s growth prospects and market performance.</p></li><li><p>While short-term growth opportunities exist, NIO&#39;s weak fundamentals and reliance on external capital make it an unattractive long-term investment.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/313940e86be7efe308570c46e5682cd1\" alt=\"Victor Golmer/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\" title=\"Victor Golmer/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Victor Golmer/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>Despite the explosive growth of the Chinese EV industry, NIO (NYSE:NIO) is still unable to r each the breakeven point. Although the company has experienced a rise in deliveries in 2024 and released new models, it continues to burn cash at a significant rate and relies on constant outside financing to prop up its liquidity. This leads to the constant dilution of its common investors as its share count has aggressively increased in the last year. The ongoing price war within the EV business along with the rising geopolitical challenges are unlikely to change the situation for the better for NIO.</p><p>While the company’s stock has some upside potential, that potential has little to do with the company’s internal developments. It has more to do with the macro environment, which also can change overnight and no longer guarantee the upside. That is why I still believe that NIO’s stock is a HOLD at best. This is because its fundamentals are relatively weak right now, but the improved macro situation could still change the market sentiment for the better in the short term.</p><h2 id=\"id_1912856890\">Liquidity Comes At A Price</h2><p>Ever since I published my latest article on NIO in October, where I highlighted various challenges that the company is facing, its stock has declined by around 15% and underperformed against the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p>Since that time, NIO has also reported its Q3 earnings results, which showed a 2.1% Y/Y decline in revenues to $2.66 billion. What’s worse is that the earnings report along with the other developments that happened in recent months also indicated that the company has no way of becoming profitable anytime soon and its upside will likely remain limited.</p><p>One of the reasons why NIO is underperforming is because it can’t improve its bottom-line performance and become profitable due to the ongoing price war that is happening inside the electric vehicles industry.</p><p>In November, the industry was starting to prepare for the intensification of the price war this year as the biggest EV maker BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) requested its supplier to decrease its prices by 10%. Then earlier this month, the EV sales data in China for 2024 came out and showed an impressive double-digit growth in sales last year. However, despite the rise in sales within the industry, only a handful of EV makers are currently profitable, and NIO is not one of them. As the price war is expected to intensify, it’s hard to see NIO improving its bottom-line performance anytime soon.</p><p>If we look at the company’s latest income statements, we will see that NIO has reported great operating and net losses in recent years. The latest expectation on the street is that NIO could become profitable only a few years from now, but that timeline could be further extended if the price war intensifies.</p><p>At the same time, if we look at NIO’s quarterly balance sheets, we will see that its cash reserves are decreasing for a few quarters in a row, then there is a bump in liquidity in one or two particular quarters in a row, after which there’s once again a decline in cash reserves and the cycle is repeating all the time. This is happening because NIO greatly relies on outside financing to compensate for the constant losses and avoid a liquidity crisis.</p><p>The biggest issue with this is that it comes at the cost of its common shareholders. In Q3, NIO had 2.06 billion fully diluted outstanding shares, up from 1.74 billion shares a year ago, which implies a ~18% annual dilution rate. Considering NIO’s weak bottom-line performance in recent quarters, it’s safe to say that the company will continue to burn cash and rely on outside financing, which will continue to dilute its common shareholders, to keep its operations intact and avoid a liquidity crisis.</p><h2 id=\"id_379508953\">Macro Risks Are Rising</h2><p>The rising macro issues could also negatively affect NIO’s performance in the foreseeable future. In addition to the ongoing price war, China is currently experiencing deflation, while its consumer confidence stays around historically low levels at a time when industrial profits are declining. This could have a negative impact on NIO’s domestic sales in the future.</p><p>At the same time, if the Trump administration escalates the ongoing Sino-American trade war by imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods, then it could also negatively affect China’s export-led economy and have an indirect impact on NIO as well.</p><p>NIO’s ability to grow its presence in Europe is likely going to be limited as well. In October, the European Commission imposed additional tariffs on EVs made in China, while NIO itself sold only 431 vehicles in the European Union in Q4.</p><p>All of this shows that NIO doesn’t have a lot of room to grow outside of China and with the Chinese market experiencing a price war that has no end in sight, the company’s upside could be limited going forward.</p><h2 id=\"id_2501887970\">The Upside Is Limited</h2><p>In addition to all of those issues, NIO is also an unattractive investment based solely on the fundamentals. While in most of my articles, I present a discounted cash flow model to figure out the fair value of the targeted company, doing such a model for NIO doesn’t make a lot of sense at this point. Since the company is unlikely to generate any earnings in the following years, its EBIT will remain negative for a while, and the model will be showing a negative free cash flow for the following years. This would make it impossible to figure out NIO’s fair value using the DCF method. NIO has already been reporting a negative FCF in the last few years, and things aren’t expected to change for the better anytime soon.</p><p>The comparable method won’t yield any significant results as well, since most of NIO’s valuation metrics are negative due to its inability to generate profits. At best, we can compare NIO’s margins and returns on assets against its peers from the EV industry, so that at the very least we can figure out how well it fares against others.</p><p>The table below paints a bleak picture of the EV industry, where only a handful of businesses is able to generate solid returns due to the rising competition and the heated price war. What’s worse is that NIO’s margins and return on assets are worse in comparison to the industry’s median, which indicates that it’s performing worse than its peers and it will continue to burn cash and raise additional liquidity at the expense of its common shareholders to stay in business. As such, it’s safe to say that fundamentally NIO is an unattractive investment right now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/19e7137e691f98b4d485a875e40d92af\" alt=\"NIO&#39;s Comparable Table (Data: Seeking Alpha, the table was created by the author)\" title=\"NIO&#39;s Comparable Table (Data: Seeking Alpha, the table was created by the author)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\"/><span>NIO&#39;s Comparable Table (Data: Seeking Alpha, the table was created by the author)</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3055208042\">Some Growth Opportunities To Consider</h2><p>While NIO is unlikely to greatly improve its bottom-line performance anytime soon, there are still several growth opportunities that can help its stock to appreciate in the short to near term.</p><p>Despite a Y/Y decline in revenues in Q3, NIO ended the year on a high note as its deliveries accelerated in Q4. Once the Q4 earnings report comes out a month from now, the company might report a better-than-expected top-line performance, to which the market might positively react. The release of new vehicles in 2025 could also give a boost to NIO’s sales and might result in the appreciation of its shares.</p><p>The further implementation of the stimulus program by Beijing in 2025 could also help improve consumer confidence in China and revive the economy. NIO’s shares might positively react to such a development, since they already greatly appreciated in September when a new stimulus package was only announced.</p><h2 id=\"id_3468809690\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>Aside from the release of new models, which can boost sales but not improve the bottom-line performance significantly, NIO has a few internal catalysts that can make its stock attractive to investors. Its fundamentals are relatively weak right now, and the improved macro situation is the only thing in my opinion that could still change the market sentiment for the better in the short term.</p><p>Other than that, there are no reasons to be optimistic about the company’s long-term future. NIO will more than likely continue to burn cash and rely on outside capital to finance its operations. This would almost certainly result in the constant dilution of its shareholders, as was the case in recent years.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: This Stock Isn't Going Anywhere</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: This Stock Isn't Going Anywhere\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-31 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4753235-nio-this-stock-isn-t-going-anywhere-reiterate-hold><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO remains unprofitable despite increased deliveries and new models, burning significant cash and relying on external financing, leading to shareholder dilution.The ongoing EV price war and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4753235-nio-this-stock-isn-t-going-anywhere-reiterate-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4753235-nio-this-stock-isn-t-going-anywhere-reiterate-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135760641","content_text":"SummaryNIO remains unprofitable despite increased deliveries and new models, burning significant cash and relying on external financing, leading to shareholder dilution.The ongoing EV price war and geopolitical challenges hinder NIO's ability to improve its bottom-line performance and profitability.Macro risks, including China's economic conditions and potential trade tensions, further limit NIO's growth prospects and market performance.While short-term growth opportunities exist, NIO's weak fundamentals and reliance on external capital make it an unattractive long-term investment.Victor Golmer/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesDespite the explosive growth of the Chinese EV industry, NIO (NYSE:NIO) is still unable to r each the breakeven point. Although the company has experienced a rise in deliveries in 2024 and released new models, it continues to burn cash at a significant rate and relies on constant outside financing to prop up its liquidity. This leads to the constant dilution of its common investors as its share count has aggressively increased in the last year. The ongoing price war within the EV business along with the rising geopolitical challenges are unlikely to change the situation for the better for NIO.While the company’s stock has some upside potential, that potential has little to do with the company’s internal developments. It has more to do with the macro environment, which also can change overnight and no longer guarantee the upside. That is why I still believe that NIO’s stock is a HOLD at best. This is because its fundamentals are relatively weak right now, but the improved macro situation could still change the market sentiment for the better in the short term.Liquidity Comes At A PriceEver since I published my latest article on NIO in October, where I highlighted various challenges that the company is facing, its stock has declined by around 15% and underperformed against the S&P 500 index.Since that time, NIO has also reported its Q3 earnings results, which showed a 2.1% Y/Y decline in revenues to $2.66 billion. What’s worse is that the earnings report along with the other developments that happened in recent months also indicated that the company has no way of becoming profitable anytime soon and its upside will likely remain limited.One of the reasons why NIO is underperforming is because it can’t improve its bottom-line performance and become profitable due to the ongoing price war that is happening inside the electric vehicles industry.In November, the industry was starting to prepare for the intensification of the price war this year as the biggest EV maker BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) requested its supplier to decrease its prices by 10%. Then earlier this month, the EV sales data in China for 2024 came out and showed an impressive double-digit growth in sales last year. However, despite the rise in sales within the industry, only a handful of EV makers are currently profitable, and NIO is not one of them. As the price war is expected to intensify, it’s hard to see NIO improving its bottom-line performance anytime soon.If we look at the company’s latest income statements, we will see that NIO has reported great operating and net losses in recent years. The latest expectation on the street is that NIO could become profitable only a few years from now, but that timeline could be further extended if the price war intensifies.At the same time, if we look at NIO’s quarterly balance sheets, we will see that its cash reserves are decreasing for a few quarters in a row, then there is a bump in liquidity in one or two particular quarters in a row, after which there’s once again a decline in cash reserves and the cycle is repeating all the time. This is happening because NIO greatly relies on outside financing to compensate for the constant losses and avoid a liquidity crisis.The biggest issue with this is that it comes at the cost of its common shareholders. In Q3, NIO had 2.06 billion fully diluted outstanding shares, up from 1.74 billion shares a year ago, which implies a ~18% annual dilution rate. Considering NIO’s weak bottom-line performance in recent quarters, it’s safe to say that the company will continue to burn cash and rely on outside financing, which will continue to dilute its common shareholders, to keep its operations intact and avoid a liquidity crisis.Macro Risks Are RisingThe rising macro issues could also negatively affect NIO’s performance in the foreseeable future. In addition to the ongoing price war, China is currently experiencing deflation, while its consumer confidence stays around historically low levels at a time when industrial profits are declining. This could have a negative impact on NIO’s domestic sales in the future.At the same time, if the Trump administration escalates the ongoing Sino-American trade war by imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods, then it could also negatively affect China’s export-led economy and have an indirect impact on NIO as well.NIO’s ability to grow its presence in Europe is likely going to be limited as well. In October, the European Commission imposed additional tariffs on EVs made in China, while NIO itself sold only 431 vehicles in the European Union in Q4.All of this shows that NIO doesn’t have a lot of room to grow outside of China and with the Chinese market experiencing a price war that has no end in sight, the company’s upside could be limited going forward.The Upside Is LimitedIn addition to all of those issues, NIO is also an unattractive investment based solely on the fundamentals. While in most of my articles, I present a discounted cash flow model to figure out the fair value of the targeted company, doing such a model for NIO doesn’t make a lot of sense at this point. Since the company is unlikely to generate any earnings in the following years, its EBIT will remain negative for a while, and the model will be showing a negative free cash flow for the following years. This would make it impossible to figure out NIO’s fair value using the DCF method. NIO has already been reporting a negative FCF in the last few years, and things aren’t expected to change for the better anytime soon.The comparable method won’t yield any significant results as well, since most of NIO’s valuation metrics are negative due to its inability to generate profits. At best, we can compare NIO’s margins and returns on assets against its peers from the EV industry, so that at the very least we can figure out how well it fares against others.The table below paints a bleak picture of the EV industry, where only a handful of businesses is able to generate solid returns due to the rising competition and the heated price war. What’s worse is that NIO’s margins and return on assets are worse in comparison to the industry’s median, which indicates that it’s performing worse than its peers and it will continue to burn cash and raise additional liquidity at the expense of its common shareholders to stay in business. As such, it’s safe to say that fundamentally NIO is an unattractive investment right now.NIO's Comparable Table (Data: Seeking Alpha, the table was created by the author)Some Growth Opportunities To ConsiderWhile NIO is unlikely to greatly improve its bottom-line performance anytime soon, there are still several growth opportunities that can help its stock to appreciate in the short to near term.Despite a Y/Y decline in revenues in Q3, NIO ended the year on a high note as its deliveries accelerated in Q4. Once the Q4 earnings report comes out a month from now, the company might report a better-than-expected top-line performance, to which the market might positively react. The release of new vehicles in 2025 could also give a boost to NIO’s sales and might result in the appreciation of its shares.The further implementation of the stimulus program by Beijing in 2025 could also help improve consumer confidence in China and revive the economy. NIO’s shares might positively react to such a development, since they already greatly appreciated in September when a new stimulus package was only announced.The Bottom LineAside from the release of new models, which can boost sales but not improve the bottom-line performance significantly, NIO has a few internal catalysts that can make its stock attractive to investors. Its fundamentals are relatively weak right now, and the improved macro situation is the only thing in my opinion that could still change the market sentiment for the better in the short term.Other than that, there are no reasons to be optimistic about the company’s long-term future. NIO will more than likely continue to burn cash and rely on outside capital to finance its operations. This would almost certainly result in the constant dilution of its shareholders, as was the case in recent years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396213032522152,"gmtCreate":1737757076692,"gmtModify":1737864780922,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$&nbsp;</a> knowing the trend in Mullen, should run up to above 1 at the minimum","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$&nbsp;</a> knowing the trend in Mullen, should run up to above 1 at the minimum","text":"$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$ knowing the trend in Mullen, should run up to above 1 at the minimum","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ade901353725f1a70ec12456d1d70d","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":180,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396213032522152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396212814360792,"gmtCreate":1737756776434,"gmtModify":1737756780394,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$&nbsp;</a> Squeeze the shorts. Nice results","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$&nbsp;</a> Squeeze the shorts. Nice results","text":"$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$ Squeeze the shorts. Nice results","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396212814360792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386020409565704,"gmtCreate":1735283908991,"gmtModify":1735283913235,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09866\">$NIO-SW(09866)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;targets more or less hit. Next week numbers bout to be explosive. Good luck all see you at double digits.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09866\">$NIO-SW(09866)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;targets more or less hit. Next week numbers bout to be explosive. Good luck all see you at double digits.","text":"$NIO-SW(09866)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ targets more or less hit. Next week numbers bout to be explosive. Good luck all see you at double digits.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386020409565704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581582741176868","authorId":"3581582741176868","name":"Meoooow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c0057abac9f2fb5047a719b0c0f8803f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3581582741176868","authorIdStr":"3581582741176868"},"content":"Just don't over buy. US has a mountain of debts which is worrying.","text":"Just don't over buy. US has a mountain of debts which is worrying.","html":"Just don't over buy. US has a mountain of debts which is worrying."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385001243156904,"gmtCreate":1735013954133,"gmtModify":1735013958878,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Great numbers. Hitting targets seem reasonable with this growth. Rock bottom prices for technological EV giant, with ET9 and firefly next year. PS less than 1 is a joke.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Great numbers. Hitting targets seem reasonable with this growth. Rock bottom prices for technological EV giant, with ET9 and firefly next year. PS less than 1 is a joke.","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Great numbers. Hitting targets seem reasonable with this growth. Rock bottom prices for technological EV giant, with ET9 and firefly next year. PS less than 1 is a joke.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385001243156904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382882086342992,"gmtCreate":1734512083043,"gmtModify":1734513777728,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> Short this overpriced trash to the ground","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> Short this overpriced trash to the ground","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Short this overpriced trash to the ground","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382882086342992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380136759734408,"gmtCreate":1733834749076,"gmtModify":1733834753255,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Back to above 10. Doesnt make sense to drop after fantastic earnings In first place. Traders lost out and policy will drive this up.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Back to above 10. Doesnt make sense to drop after fantastic earnings In first place. Traders lost out and policy will drive this up.","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Back to above 10. Doesnt make sense to drop after fantastic earnings In first place. Traders lost out and policy will drive this up.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380136759734408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3584059221812022","authorId":"3584059221812022","name":"koolprofit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35cbe19969d5cb47cac77a79cb59a5e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3584059221812022","authorIdStr":"3584059221812022"},"content":"very difficult, there are bears out there waiting to kill this stock !!!","text":"very difficult, there are bears out there waiting to kill this stock !!!","html":"very difficult, there are bears out there waiting to kill this stock !!!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377270201753912,"gmtCreate":1733135318452,"gmtModify":1733139175510,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09868\">$XPENG-W(09868)$&nbsp;</a> Hold untill 50k hkd gains. XPENG about to turn profitable. New models are all a hit!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09868\">$XPENG-W(09868)$&nbsp;</a> Hold untill 50k hkd gains. XPENG about to turn profitable. New models are all a hit!","text":"$XPENG-W(09868)$ Hold untill 50k hkd gains. XPENG about to turn profitable. New models are all a hit!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83c592090263e3b0ec471d896ee31dbc","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377270201753912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373055216840936,"gmtCreate":1732107417607,"gmtModify":1732107422172,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> The first time tesla went cash positive saw huge jumps to triple digits. Nio just did that.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> The first time tesla went cash positive saw huge jumps to triple digits. Nio just did that.","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ The first time tesla went cash positive saw huge jumps to triple digits. Nio just did that.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373055216840936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576228432089506","authorId":"3576228432089506","name":"tosidon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6be9be1d5d73d8ac9ca4ff0254f5415e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576228432089506","authorIdStr":"3576228432089506"},"content":"increase in cash flow is already promising!","text":"increase in cash flow is already promising!","html":"increase in cash flow is already promising!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373024982499432,"gmtCreate":1732099930945,"gmtModify":1732099935597,"author":{"id":"3585253184052412","authorId":"3585253184052412","name":"qunz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9a34f9aecaf4082706b12ff2bb7048e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585253184052412","authorIdStr":"3585253184052412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> No reason to drop from revenue slight miss. Read the fine prints, margins are up, cash flow positive, forecasts ramping to 72k+ this quarter.&nbsp; Yet market cap less than 10B with 6B in cash. Kinda easy to spot such bear traps.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> No reason to drop from revenue slight miss. Read the fine prints, margins are up, cash flow positive, forecasts ramping to 72k+ this quarter.&nbsp; Yet market cap less than 10B with 6B in cash. Kinda easy to spot such bear traps.","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ No reason to drop from revenue slight miss. Read the fine prints, margins are up, cash flow positive, forecasts ramping to 72k+ this quarter. Yet market cap less than 10B with 6B in cash. Kinda easy to spot such bear traps.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":35,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":259,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373024982499432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576228432089506","authorId":"3576228432089506","name":"tosidon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6be9be1d5d73d8ac9ca4ff0254f5415e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576228432089506","authorIdStr":"3576228432089506"},"content":"Exactly. $6BILLION in cash, is an improvement. And cash itself take up $3. Maybe it will be postive today. And rev by analyst is bs. Some site say is above estimates. Top line.","text":"Exactly. $6BILLION in cash, is an improvement. And cash itself take up $3. Maybe it will be postive today. And rev by analyst is bs. Some site say is above estimates. Top line.","html":"Exactly. $6BILLION in cash, is an improvement. And cash itself take up $3. Maybe it will be postive today. And rev by analyst is bs. Some site say is above estimates. Top line."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}