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gsr45
gsr45
·
05-12
$SMH 20250620 235.0 CALL$
thks trump
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gsr45
gsr45
·
2022-09-22
this has been pretty accurate on fomc and it's not any different from today's one too!
U.S. Stocks Push Back Into Positive Territory As Fed's Powell Begins News Conference
U.S. stocks push back into positive territory as Fed's Powell begins news conference.
U.S. Stocks Push Back Into Positive Territory As Fed's Powell Begins News Conference
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gsr45
gsr45
·
2022-07-12
$SPXW 20220713 3700.0 PUT$
been a while since i shared...not too bad going into CPI
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gsr45
gsr45
·
2022-07-08
here we go, fri sale, come and get it [Happy]
Payrolls Increased 372,000 in June, More Than Expected
Job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in June, indicating that the main pillar
Payrolls Increased 372,000 in June, More Than Expected
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gsr45
gsr45
·
2022-06-18
interesting, as I am watching the dec 5000c on SXP...
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gsr45
gsr45
·
2022-05-04
jus hope bullard doesn't yak about 75bps.. 50bps should be more or less priced in.. need to know about the balance sheet run off which is quite aggressive now
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gsr45
gsr45
·
2022-04-08
quote from author "The relationship has nothing to do with either of these companies fundamentals". I stopped reading after that line , lol
Nvidia's Stock May Soon Take A Very Profound Turn For The Worse
SummaryNvidia's stock is mirroring the patterns last seen in Cisco at the beginning of the century.T
Nvidia's Stock May Soon Take A Very Profound Turn For The Worse
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gsr45
gsr45
·
2022-04-07
great dip buying opportunity.. may 300c looks really good
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gsr45
gsr45
·
2022-01-20
bounced off the demand zone twice n flew. if we gap up and retest, get those calls ready...
Nio Could Soon Be in Another Electric Tizzy
Electric vehicle (EV) companies are great long-term investments, but investors need to ensure that t
Nio Could Soon Be in Another Electric Tizzy
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gsr45
gsr45
·
2022-01-20
well, HnS setup, if it breaks 980 puts are in place, so definitely it's in my watchlist
Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022
The stock has been a big winner over the past five years, but expectations are too high for this company going forward.
Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022
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02:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><li>U.S. stocks push back into positive territory as Fed's Powell begins news conference.</li><li><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4376c55ef22a25cbdca26678d93f9e99\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"118\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></li><li></li></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130323738","content_text":"U.S. stocks push back into positive territory as Fed's Powell begins news 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[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073389547","repostId":"1108021091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108021091","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657283432,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108021091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Payrolls Increased 372,000 in June, More Than Expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108021091","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in June, indicating that the main pillar ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in June, indicating that the main pillar of the U.S. economy remains strong despite pockets of weakness.</p><p>Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month, better than the 250,000 Dow Jones estimate and continuing what has been a strong year for job growth, according to data Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p><p>The unemployment rate was 3.6%, unchanged from May and in line with estimates. An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell sharply, dropping to 6.7% from 7.1%.</p><p>June’s gains marked a slight deceleration from the downwardly revised 384,000 in May. April’s count was revised down to 368,000.</p><p>Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and were up 5.1% from a year ago, the latter number slightly higher than the 5% Dow Jones estimate and indicative that wage pressures remain strong as inflation accelerates.</p><p>By sector, education and health services led job creation, with 96,000 hires, while professional and business services added 74,000 positions. Other contributors included leisure and hospitality (67,000), Health care (57,000), and transportation and warehousing (36,000).</p><p>Stock futures fell slightly on Friday as investors believe a stronger-than-expected jobs report will likely keep the Federal Reserve on track for its aggressive rate hikes.</p><p>Dow e-minis were down 70 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 20.25 points, or 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 117.5 points, or 0.97%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/195c907df276a9b073fcba623df0f362\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Payrolls Increased 372,000 in June, More Than Expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayrolls Increased 372,000 in June, More Than Expected\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-08 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in June, indicating that the main pillar of the U.S. economy remains strong despite pockets of weakness.</p><p>Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month, better than the 250,000 Dow Jones estimate and continuing what has been a strong year for job growth, according to data Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p><p>The unemployment rate was 3.6%, unchanged from May and in line with estimates. An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell sharply, dropping to 6.7% from 7.1%.</p><p>June’s gains marked a slight deceleration from the downwardly revised 384,000 in May. April’s count was revised down to 368,000.</p><p>Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and were up 5.1% from a year ago, the latter number slightly higher than the 5% Dow Jones estimate and indicative that wage pressures remain strong as inflation accelerates.</p><p>By sector, education and health services led job creation, with 96,000 hires, while professional and business services added 74,000 positions. Other contributors included leisure and hospitality (67,000), Health care (57,000), and transportation and warehousing (36,000).</p><p>Stock futures fell slightly on Friday as investors believe a stronger-than-expected jobs report will likely keep the Federal Reserve on track for its aggressive rate hikes.</p><p>Dow e-minis were down 70 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 20.25 points, or 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 117.5 points, or 0.97%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/195c907df276a9b073fcba623df0f362\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108021091","content_text":"Job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in June, indicating that the main pillar of the U.S. economy remains strong despite pockets of weakness.Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month, better than the 250,000 Dow Jones estimate and continuing what has been a strong year for job growth, according to data Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The unemployment rate was 3.6%, unchanged from May and in line with estimates. An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell sharply, dropping to 6.7% from 7.1%.June’s gains marked a slight deceleration from the downwardly revised 384,000 in May. April’s count was revised down to 368,000.Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and were up 5.1% from a year ago, the latter number slightly higher than the 5% Dow Jones estimate and indicative that wage pressures remain strong as inflation accelerates.By sector, education and health services led job creation, with 96,000 hires, while professional and business services added 74,000 positions. Other contributors included leisure and hospitality (67,000), Health care (57,000), and transportation and warehousing (36,000).Stock futures fell slightly on Friday as investors believe a stronger-than-expected jobs report will likely keep the Federal Reserve on track for its aggressive rate hikes.Dow e-minis were down 70 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 20.25 points, or 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 117.5 points, or 0.97%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057276263,"gmtCreate":1655521626952,"gmtModify":1676535656724,"author":{"id":"3586937342194873","authorId":"3586937342194873","name":"gsr45","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5737c351325217c4f4672346f37ad81e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937342194873","idStr":"3586937342194873"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting, as I am watching the dec 5000c on SXP... ","listText":"interesting, as I am watching the dec 5000c on SXP... ","text":"interesting, as I am watching the dec 5000c on SXP...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057276263","repostId":"2244110681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061462182,"gmtCreate":1651668498977,"gmtModify":1676534945009,"author":{"id":"3586937342194873","authorId":"3586937342194873","name":"gsr45","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5737c351325217c4f4672346f37ad81e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937342194873","idStr":"3586937342194873"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"jus hope bullard doesn't yak about 75bps.. 50bps should be more or less priced in.. need to know about the balance sheet run off which is quite aggressive now","listText":"jus hope bullard doesn't yak about 75bps.. 50bps should be more or less priced in.. need to know about the balance sheet run off which is quite aggressive now","text":"jus hope bullard doesn't yak about 75bps.. 50bps should be more or less priced in.. need to know about the balance sheet run off which is quite aggressive now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061462182","repostId":"2232305766","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579482809178950","authorId":"3579482809178950","name":"Dawang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f01f2346125f600328ffd48beb3a4c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579482809178950","idStr":"3579482809178950"},"content":"agreed, I m also assessing 50 bps as the call. 😊😁 75bps might cause market mayhem","text":"agreed, I m also assessing 50 bps as the call. 😊😁 75bps might cause market mayhem","html":"agreed, I m also assessing 50 bps as the call. 😊😁 75bps might cause market mayhem"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015044920,"gmtCreate":1649399420044,"gmtModify":1676534506098,"author":{"id":"3586937342194873","authorId":"3586937342194873","name":"gsr45","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5737c351325217c4f4672346f37ad81e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937342194873","idStr":"3586937342194873"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"quote from author \"The relationship has nothing to do with either of these companies fundamentals\". I stopped reading after that line , lol","listText":"quote from author \"The relationship has nothing to do with either of these companies fundamentals\". I stopped reading after that line , lol","text":"quote from author \"The relationship has nothing to do with either of these companies fundamentals\". I stopped reading after that line , lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015044920","repostId":"1116986575","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116986575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649379607,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116986575?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-08 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Stock May Soon Take A Very Profound Turn For The Worse","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116986575","media":"eeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia's stock is mirroring the patterns last seen in Cisco at the beginning of the century.T","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Nvidia's stock is mirroring the patterns last seen in Cisco at the beginning of the century.</li><li>The exercise tells us this isn't about a business and its fundamentals, but human psychology.</li><li>Where Nvidia goes from here may already be pre-determined.</li></ul><p>Patterns appear all over the marketplace, and while they don't always play out exactly as expected, they can give clues as to what <i>might</i> happen next. They are worth considering and investigating with an open mind. For example, in December, I asked what if Nvidia Of Today Is The Cisco Of 2000?</p><p>The story was mocked by many and called crazy. After all, what does stoggy old Cisco (CSCO) have to do with a high-growth company like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which makes all these wonderful GPUs helping to expand the data center and improve gaming? The visionary CEO Jensen Huang leads Nvidia today. Cisco had this guy John Chambers, a fantastic visionary in his own right.</p><p>In reality, Nvidia today and its growth rates can't compare to Cisco. But at one point, Cisco was a blistering growth stock. Cisco's prospects were so significant that it was deemed on Feb. 13, 2000, in an LA Times story to be the first $1 trillion company. By some estimates, a dollar in 2000 is around $1.65 today. That would have made Cisco worth $1.65 trillion in today's dollar, or $1 trillion more than Nvidia today.</p><p>There's a story here, and that story tells us that when optimism is high, expectations are massive. Human psychology plays an enormous part in stocks and how much investors are willing to pay for those future earnings potential. The psychological aspect of the relationship between Cisco and Nvidia is so interesting. In December, I pointed out the Nvidia of today was very much tracking the path of Cisco from 1998 through 2002.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50af596bc3ad71eb3ee83bb8995e2e8a\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Refinitiv</p><p>I still track this relationship, and much to my surprise, the pattern has continued over the past four months. Not only has it continued, but it has been able to make nearly all the same twists and turns along the way.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ea73733328ca602c763ed7ce4a0377d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This relationship comes to an inflection point very soon, where it will either continue to work or not. By my estimates, that inflection point is about 20 to 25 days away, where either Nvidia continues to be a stock that follows its own destiny or follows Cisco's steep decline into the middle of 2001.</p><p>The relationship has nothing to do with either of these companies' fundamentals. Cisco doubled its revenue over the past 20 years, climbing to more than $50 billion per year. Meanwhile, the stock has never been able to climb back to those early century highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3ec049b6daf4dea447c4296b904621f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>How much investors are willing to pay for Cisco's revenue stream has changed, going from an insanely high 60 times its trailing twelve-month sales to just four today. For Nvidia, its price to sales multiple has expanded too, rising to almost 34 at its peak and has fallen back to 23. It's where that ratio goes from here that will determine if Nvidia continues on the same path as Cisco or goes its own way.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe9bc73a4d73819bc479bb762d94cb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Nvidia may double its revenue just like Cisco, and the stock price never rises back to all-time highs. It isn't to say that the stock won't go to new all-time highs either. The exercise tells us that it isn't always about the long-term fundamental outlook. It's more about the psychology of how much investors are willing to pay for a stock's future earnings or sales stream.</p><p>Consider that Nvidia traded for a peak price to sales ratio on a TTM basis of 15 in 2017 and in the January-February time frame of 2020, just before the pandemic. But with the help of the Fed and its easy monetary policy, multiples for <b><i>all</i></b> stocks expanded. At its current 22.8, Nvidia's P/S ratio would need to fall 35% to get back to 15, which would knock the stock down to $160. For the stock to rise back to $245 or its current market cap of $615.4 billion, at a P/S ratio of 15, sales would need to climb $41.0 billion from the current fiscal year 2023 estimates of $34.9 billion and actual $26.9 billion in fiscal 2022. $41 billion is certainly an achievable number for Nvidia, but it could also suggest that Nvidia does a lot of nothing over the next couple of years as sales catch up with the stock price.</p><p>The big question is where multiples will stand over the next year or two - will they rise and fall? It seems reasonable to think that if easy money ushers in multiple expansion, tighter monetary policy ushers in a period of multiple contraction. It could even send the stock's P/S ratio well below 15.</p><p>What's clear is that Nvidia's current multiple is very elevated because optimism among investors still is high, maybe too high, and the path of the stock is likely to be more challenging from here than over the past two years.</p><p>Which direction Nvidia ends up taking may or may not already be pre-determined. Only time will tell.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Stock May Soon Take A Very Profound Turn For The Worse</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Stock May Soon Take A Very Profound Turn For The Worse\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-08 09:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500283-nvidia-stock-sentiment-high><strong>eeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia's stock is mirroring the patterns last seen in Cisco at the beginning of the century.The exercise tells us this isn't about a business and its fundamentals, but human psychology.Where ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500283-nvidia-stock-sentiment-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500283-nvidia-stock-sentiment-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116986575","content_text":"SummaryNvidia's stock is mirroring the patterns last seen in Cisco at the beginning of the century.The exercise tells us this isn't about a business and its fundamentals, but human psychology.Where Nvidia goes from here may already be pre-determined.Patterns appear all over the marketplace, and while they don't always play out exactly as expected, they can give clues as to what might happen next. They are worth considering and investigating with an open mind. For example, in December, I asked what if Nvidia Of Today Is The Cisco Of 2000?The story was mocked by many and called crazy. After all, what does stoggy old Cisco (CSCO) have to do with a high-growth company like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which makes all these wonderful GPUs helping to expand the data center and improve gaming? The visionary CEO Jensen Huang leads Nvidia today. Cisco had this guy John Chambers, a fantastic visionary in his own right.In reality, Nvidia today and its growth rates can't compare to Cisco. But at one point, Cisco was a blistering growth stock. Cisco's prospects were so significant that it was deemed on Feb. 13, 2000, in an LA Times story to be the first $1 trillion company. By some estimates, a dollar in 2000 is around $1.65 today. That would have made Cisco worth $1.65 trillion in today's dollar, or $1 trillion more than Nvidia today.There's a story here, and that story tells us that when optimism is high, expectations are massive. Human psychology plays an enormous part in stocks and how much investors are willing to pay for those future earnings potential. The psychological aspect of the relationship between Cisco and Nvidia is so interesting. In December, I pointed out the Nvidia of today was very much tracking the path of Cisco from 1998 through 2002.RefinitivI still track this relationship, and much to my surprise, the pattern has continued over the past four months. Not only has it continued, but it has been able to make nearly all the same twists and turns along the way.BloombergThis relationship comes to an inflection point very soon, where it will either continue to work or not. By my estimates, that inflection point is about 20 to 25 days away, where either Nvidia continues to be a stock that follows its own destiny or follows Cisco's steep decline into the middle of 2001.The relationship has nothing to do with either of these companies' fundamentals. Cisco doubled its revenue over the past 20 years, climbing to more than $50 billion per year. Meanwhile, the stock has never been able to climb back to those early century highs.BloombergHow much investors are willing to pay for Cisco's revenue stream has changed, going from an insanely high 60 times its trailing twelve-month sales to just four today. For Nvidia, its price to sales multiple has expanded too, rising to almost 34 at its peak and has fallen back to 23. It's where that ratio goes from here that will determine if Nvidia continues on the same path as Cisco or goes its own way.BloombergNvidia may double its revenue just like Cisco, and the stock price never rises back to all-time highs. It isn't to say that the stock won't go to new all-time highs either. The exercise tells us that it isn't always about the long-term fundamental outlook. It's more about the psychology of how much investors are willing to pay for a stock's future earnings or sales stream.Consider that Nvidia traded for a peak price to sales ratio on a TTM basis of 15 in 2017 and in the January-February time frame of 2020, just before the pandemic. But with the help of the Fed and its easy monetary policy, multiples for all stocks expanded. At its current 22.8, Nvidia's P/S ratio would need to fall 35% to get back to 15, which would knock the stock down to $160. For the stock to rise back to $245 or its current market cap of $615.4 billion, at a P/S ratio of 15, sales would need to climb $41.0 billion from the current fiscal year 2023 estimates of $34.9 billion and actual $26.9 billion in fiscal 2022. $41 billion is certainly an achievable number for Nvidia, but it could also suggest that Nvidia does a lot of nothing over the next couple of years as sales catch up with the stock price.The big question is where multiples will stand over the next year or two - will they rise and fall? It seems reasonable to think that if easy money ushers in multiple expansion, tighter monetary policy ushers in a period of multiple contraction. It could even send the stock's P/S ratio well below 15.What's clear is that Nvidia's current multiple is very elevated because optimism among investors still is high, maybe too high, and the path of the stock is likely to be more challenging from here than over the past two years.Which direction Nvidia ends up taking may or may not already be pre-determined. Only time will tell.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9012179749,"gmtCreate":1649297193580,"gmtModify":1676534487685,"author":{"id":"3586937342194873","authorId":"3586937342194873","name":"gsr45","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5737c351325217c4f4672346f37ad81e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937342194873","idStr":"3586937342194873"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great dip buying opportunity.. may 300c looks really good","listText":"great dip buying opportunity.. may 300c looks really good","text":"great dip buying opportunity.. may 300c looks really good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012179749","repostId":"1106290580","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572923586954779","authorId":"3572923586954779","name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3572923586954779","idStr":"3572923586954779"},"content":"it will be great to pick up some around 200. let's see if it comes. good luck","text":"it will be great to pick up some around 200. let's see if it comes. good luck","html":"it will be great to pick up some around 200. let's see if it comes. good luck"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004488041,"gmtCreate":1642660723946,"gmtModify":1676533733262,"author":{"id":"3586937342194873","authorId":"3586937342194873","name":"gsr45","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5737c351325217c4f4672346f37ad81e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937342194873","idStr":"3586937342194873"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bounced off the demand zone twice n flew. if we gap up and retest, get those calls ready...","listText":"bounced off the demand zone twice n flew. if we gap up and retest, get those calls ready...","text":"bounced off the demand zone twice n flew. if we gap up and retest, get those calls ready...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004488041","repostId":"1117803405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117803405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642637540,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117803405?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-20 08:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nio Could Soon Be in Another Electric Tizzy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117803405","media":"investorplace","summary":"Electric vehicle (EV) companies are great long-term investments, but investors need to ensure that t","content":"<div>\n<p>Electric vehicle (EV) companies are great long-term investments, but investors need to ensure that they manage their short-run value at risk because it tends to be negatively skewed when volatility ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/01/nio-stock-could-soon-be-in-another-electric-tizzy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio Could Soon Be in Another Electric Tizzy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio Could Soon Be in Another Electric Tizzy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 08:12 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/01/nio-stock-could-soon-be-in-another-electric-tizzy/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Electric vehicle (EV) companies are great long-term investments, but investors need to ensure that they manage their short-run value at risk because it tends to be negatively skewed when volatility ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/01/nio-stock-could-soon-be-in-another-electric-tizzy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/01/nio-stock-could-soon-be-in-another-electric-tizzy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117803405","content_text":"Electric vehicle (EV) companies are great long-term investments, but investors need to ensure that they manage their short-run value at risk because it tends to be negatively skewed when volatility enters the fray. Nio (NYSE:NIO) performed especially well during the earlier stages of the pandemic for two reasons. First, NIO stock gained because unexpected expansionary monetary policy allowed for growth stocks to surge. Secondly, the market was craving a Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) competitor that could possibly emulate TSLA’s impressive bull run.The broad-based market climate is set to change in 2022, however. With contractionary monetary policy entering the building, I expect many growth investors to scatter. NIO stock is one of the names that could be subject to such an event.Here’s why.NIO Stock: Deliveries Could Disappoint ManyAccording to Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao, Nio’s deliveries are set to get off to a slow start in January amid Chinese New Year celebrations and tight Covid-19 restrictions. The analyst has the following to say:“The industry is looking for a pre-holiday boost to rev up weekly sales until later in January, when store traffic/deliveries could fall substantially. This is especially the case given sporadic lock-downs amid resurgence of Covid cases in China. With easing chip shortage, we saw more resilient sales in ICEVs than EVs at the beginning of year, likely due to unleashing of pent-up demand from 2021.”With this in mind, I believe there will be a cooldown in demand for the rest of 2022 as well. Of course, many investors may be tired of hearing about China’s revised debt policies and its crackdown on big tech. But it’s very relevant in relation to car sales — especially when it involves product switching from ICE vehicles to EVs.When it comes down to it, the reduction of private-sector leverage and a smoothing in technological development will likely underscore previously estimated real GDP forecasts, potentially damaging Nio’s top-line earnings growth as a result. In turn, that could damage the price of NIO stock.There’s a Pricing Problem HereThe price-sales (P/S) ratio is an excellent metric to use when valuing a growth company. Why? Because it’s less susceptible to volatility and not easily manipulated by a company’s management team. One would usually compare a stock’s price multiples to its five-year average to justify an overvalued or undervalued call. However, seeing as Nio only listed in 2018, we’ll need to look at a sector comparison and then discuss cyclicality.Currently, Nio’s P/S ratio is trading at a 7.7 times premium to the industry. That isn’t good news. Rather, it tells us that the market has gotten ahead of itself, which may mean that NIO stock is set for downward mean reversion in the short term. And business cyclicality certainly doesn’t help the cause. As I mentioned before, we’re heading into a contractionary monetary cycle. That usually gives rise to value stocks while stunning growth stocks like NIO.A final pricing problem to look at is the company’s price-book (P/B) ratio. Right now, Nio’s P/B ratio is also trading at a premium relative to industry peers. The P/B ratio is an important metric to consider with asset-heavy businesses and Nio’s isn’t only overvalued based on a peer analysis. It’s also considerably above the valuation threshold, yet again suggesting downward short-term mean reversion.What’s Next for NIO Stock?All things considered, Nio is a great company. However, it could be subject to macroeconomic headwinds going into 2022. Furthermore, NIO stock isn’t priced correctly, with the lingering effects of 2020’s market gunning still present.NIO stock is trading below its 10-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, conveying a downward momentum pattern that would take a lot to reverse. I wouldn’t look at shorting the stock, however. Last year, China’s recent hard-line political shift was a catalyst to a significant drawdown. Rather, investors should look to manage risk by shedding some weight from their portfolios or divesting until the stock’s key drivers are back in check.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004435842,"gmtCreate":1642654992200,"gmtModify":1676533732859,"author":{"id":"3586937342194873","authorId":"3586937342194873","name":"gsr45","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5737c351325217c4f4672346f37ad81e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937342194873","idStr":"3586937342194873"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"well, HnS setup, if it breaks 980 puts are in place, so definitely it's in my watchlist ","listText":"well, HnS setup, if it breaks 980 puts are in place, so definitely it's in my watchlist ","text":"well, HnS setup, if it breaks 980 puts are in place, so definitely it's in my watchlist","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004435842","repostId":"2204056629","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2204056629","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642637895,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2204056629?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-20 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2204056629","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock has been a big winner over the past five years, but expectations are too high for this company going forward.","content":"<div>\n<p>Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 08:18 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2204056629","content_text":"Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks in the market during that timespan. The company has scaled out its electric vehicle business, sports a market cap north of $1 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world. Everything has come up in favor of Tesla recently. But for owners of the stock, the future does not look nearly as bright.Here's why Tesla is the one stock I'd avoid in 2022.Image source: Getty Images.Growth has been solidLet's start with what Tesla has done with its business over the last five years. It recently posted record car deliveries of 936,000 in 2021, up from a measly 30,000 in 2017. Revenue has followed suit. Trailing 12-month sales are up 448% in the last five years, as Tesla has scaled its manufacturing business around the globe. What's more, it has recently started to generate steady profits, putting up $4.45 billion in operating income over the last 12 months.The company should do over $50 billion in sales in 2021, and analysts expect revenue to get close to $100 billion in 2023. So why is Tesla stock one to avoid in 2022? Two reasons: the difficulty of manufacturing and the expectations embedded in the stock.Manufacturing is a difficult businessBending steel is difficult. Building and selling cars is difficult, and it costs a lot of money. Tesla (a car manufacturer) is not immune to these costs, and they will make it difficult for the company to return cash to shareholders over the long term -- which is how you accrue value as an owner of the stock. For example, over the last 12 months, Tesla has spent $7.3 billion on capital expenditures, which is only slightly lower than the $9.9 billion it generated in cash flow from operations.These numbers come out to a free cash flow of only $2.6 billion over the past 12 months. At a market cap of $1.05 trillion, that is a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) over 400. Even worse, Tesla has only generated this \"free cash flow\" because it has grown its accounts payable and accrued liabilities by $2.7 billion this year. This is money Tesla will have to pay to suppliers and employees eventually, making the $2.6 billion in cash it generated unavailable to return to shareholders.You might ask: Won't capex decrease once Tesla is done expanding its business? This is not likely. Toyota (NYSE:TM), the largest car manufacturer in the world, spent almost $35 billion on capital expenditures over the last 12 months, and it is growing capacity at a much slower rate than Tesla. If Tesla starts delivering more than 10 million vehicles a year (as Toyota did in 2019), it will have a perpetual need for capital investment, which will limit the amount of true free cash flow available to pay out to shareholders.Expectations are much too highGiven the difficult nature of an automotive manufacturing business, most of the sector's stocks trade at dirt-cheap earnings multiples. This will likely be true of Tesla at some point. Let's look at Toyota again as an example. The company, which did $281 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, generated $28.2 billion in net income. It has a market cap of $289 billion, or right around a price-to-earnings ratio of 10. It is so low because investors in the company understand that it will be difficult for excess cash to be paid out to them relative to its earning power.On the other hand, Tesla sports a market cap of $1.056 trillion and has a trailing net income of $3.47 billion. Could Tesla get to $28.2 billion in annual net income someday? Maybe. But as investors, you should understand that with a market cap more than three times the size of Toyota's, this is already priced into the stock.If you own Tesla right now, you should have a thesis on why it will be worth more than $1 trillion in the future, and likely $2 trillion a decade from now if you desire a decent compounded annual return. You might argue that Tesla is setting itself up to do that with autonomous driving, battery technology, and solar panels. However, these are all either small and capital-intensive businesses (solar and batteries) or speculative business plans with no line of sight to becoming commercially viable (autonomous driving). Will these segments help Tesla achieve positive returns over the next decade when it already has a market cap pricing in the dominance of the majority of the automotive sector?Tesla's market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile. For that reason, it is the one stock I'd avoid buying in 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AONE.U":1,"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}