Profile - To The Moon

DenToh

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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-12-26
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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-12-26
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  Toyota's Nov Global Vehicle Production Rises 1.5% to Record 833,104
  TOKYO, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp reported on Monday a 1.5% rise in November global vehicl
  Toyota's Nov Global Vehicle Production Rises 1.5% to Record 833,104
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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-12-26
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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-12-26
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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-12-26
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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-11-19
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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-10-05
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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-09-21
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  Best Stocks To Invest In: September 2022
  Here are 10 stocks that could be excellent additions to your portfolio for the rest of 2022 and for years to come.
  Best Stocks To Invest In: September 2022
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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-08-25
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  Nvidia: Disaster Guidance
  SummaryNvidia reported its second quarter earnings, missing estimates.Nvidia's Q3 guidance is more i
  Nvidia: Disaster Guidance
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- DenTohDenToh
  ·2022-08-25
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  VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade
  SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better of
  VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade
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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-26 14:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>TOKYO, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp reported on Monday a 1.5% rise in November global vehicle output, reaching a new record of 833,104.</p><p>Domestic production slid 3.3% to 266,174 vehicles, while overseas output rose 3.8% to an all-time high of 566,930 for the month.</p><p>Global sales and production in November exceeded last year&#39;s levels due to solid demand, particularly in North America, and a recovery in parts supplies that had been impacted by COVID-19 slowdowns, Toyota said.</p><p>The automaker reported earlier this month it expected to produce 700,000 vehicles in January and held to a reduced goal of 9.2 million in the year through March.</p><p>Toyota had previously expected to make 9.7 million autos this fiscal year, but was forced to lower the target in November as it struggles with rising materials costs and a shortage of semiconductors.</p><p>That&#39;s still ahead of last year&#39;s production of about 8.6 million units.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4555":"新能源车","TM":"丰田汽车","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2294165585","content_text":"TOKYO, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp reported on Monday a 1.5% rise in November global vehicle output, reaching a new record of 833,104.Domestic production slid 3.3% to 266,174 vehicles, while overseas output rose 3.8% to an all-time high of 566,930 for the month.Global sales and production in November exceeded last year's levels due to solid demand, particularly in North America, and a recovery in parts supplies that had been impacted by COVID-19 slowdowns, Toyota said.The automaker reported earlier this month it expected to produce 700,000 vehicles in January and held to a reduced goal of 9.2 million in the year through March.Toyota had previously expected to make 9.7 million autos this fiscal year, but was forced to lower the target in November as it struggles with rising materials costs and a shortage of semiconductors.That's still ahead of last year's production of about 8.6 million 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10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Best Stocks To Invest In: September 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163713402","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here are 10 stocks that could be excellent additions to your portfolio for the rest of 2022 and for years to come.","content":"<div>\n<p>There are literally thousands of publicly traded companies you can invest in, not to mention the many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds you can buy, so it's not surprising many investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/top-stocks-to-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best Stocks To Invest In: September 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest Stocks To Invest In: September 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-21 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/top-stocks-to-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There are literally thousands of publicly traded companies you can invest in, not to mention the many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds you can buy, so it's not surprising many investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/top-stocks-to-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","MELI":"MercadoLibre","DIS":"迪士尼","SE":"Sea Ltd","ISRG":"直觉外科公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/top-stocks-to-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163713402","content_text":"There are literally thousands of publicly traded companies you can invest in, not to mention the many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds you can buy, so it's not surprising many investors don't know where to begin. And, with the recent market downturn, especially when it comes to growth stocks, there are plenty of stocks trading for significantly less than they were just six months or a year ago.But what are the best stocks to buy in 2022? Although I don't have a crystal ball that tells me what stocks will deliver the best returns, I've tried to do the next best thing. In this article, I'll discuss 10 stocks that I think could be great buys in 2022 for long-term investors looking to put their money to work.Image source: Getty Images.Before we get to the stocks, let's acknowledge three caveats:Choosing the best stocks to buy today heavily depends on your personal financial situation. To get a feel for where you stand, read our guide on how to invest in stocks. It walks you through topics such as establishing an emergency fund, allocating assets, and when it makes sense to buy stocks.I like these stocks as long-term investments. I have absolutely no idea what they'll do over the next few weeks or months. In fact, if inflation stays elevated longer than expected or the U.S. falls into a recession, it's entirely possible that most or all of these could decline in the near term.Although I ensured some variety, the list below isn't meant to be a fully diversified portfolio. Instead, they're my highest-conviction long term stocks to invest in for 2022 and beyond. The best one-step way to diversify your holdings is to build the core of your portfolio around something like the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF (NYSEMKT:VT).Let's get to my list of the 10 best stocks to buy now and hold for the long term, from smallest market cap to largest, followed by the summary buy thesis for each one.The top 10 stocks for 2022Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), $14 billionPinterest (NYSE:PINS), $15 billionSea Limited (NYSE:SE), $34 billionShopify (NYSE:SHOP), $38 billionBlock (NYSE:SQ), $39 billionMercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI), $43 billionIntuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG), $73 billionWalt Disney (NYSE:DIS), $204 billionBerkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B), $622 billionAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), $1.31 trillion(Market caps as of September 2, 2022, rounded to the nearest billion.)Elevator pitches for each stockNow that you've seen my top 10 best stocks to buy now, you may be wondering why I picked each company. Here's a quick rundown of why I'm such a fan of each of them as long-term stocks to invest in.1. EtsyBefore the COVID-19 pandemic, Etsy was growing nicely by connecting crafty makers with customers looking for something a bit more out of the ordinary than mainstream e-commerce fare. During the pandemic, e-commerce got a huge boost. But Etsy absolutely skyrocketed, growing at more than twice the rate of overall e-commerce.It certainly helped that Etsy was a natural fit when people wanted unique face masks, but its growth has been impressive across all product categories. In the second quarter of 2022, Etsy's marketplace sales volume was up 141% over comparable pre-pandemic levels.As you may notice throughout this list, powerful platforms get my attention. Make no mistake: Etsy is one of them. Few e-commerce companies go head-to-head with Amazon and survive. Etsy not only survived when Amazon rolled out its own handmade items platform; it won. But this could still be the early days of an excellent long-term growth story.Because of its platform and brand strength, Etsy's market opportunity is in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and it has just started to scratch the surface. And, with the stock falling significantly in the recent growth stock downturn, now could be a great time for patient long-term investors to take a closer look.2. PinterestPinterest is an oasis of positivity in a social medial and scape that's grown increasingly depressing and divisive. That partially flows from what Pinterest is about, which is ideas.People go to Pinterest to focus on things, not on other people. Whether it's building a dream deck, baking a kid's birthday cake, or updating your wardrobe, Pinterest gives people visual inspiration for the things they want to get done.Pinterest has been beaten down in the 2022 market decline, mainly because its user base contracted a bit as pandemic restrictions were lifted around the world. However, according to the company's second quarter results, it appears that the user base has stabilized for the time being.The most exciting thing from a long-term investor's perspective is that Pinterest has a massive opportunity when it comes to monetization of its users, especially as the company pivots away from its traditional ad-focused model and tries to find ways to incorporate e-commerce into its platform.The pivot certainly makes sense. Pinterest is a place where people go to find things they might want to buy, and it recently hired e-commerce veteran Bill Ready as its new CEO to help accelerate its pivot.It's really easy to envision how seamless advertising, lead generation, and product placement could be when people are already there for suggestions. The monetization potential is especially massive internationally, which accounts for 80% of its user base but just a tiny fraction of its revenue.3. Sea LimitedSea Limited is rapidly growing into a powerhouse in Southeast Asia. The company operates the large Garena digital gaming platform, but the most promising growth drivers are its Shopee e-commerce platform and SeaMoney digital payments platform, both of which have been growing rapidly. In the second quarter of 2022, while Garena saw a revenue decline, Shopee revenue grew 51% year over year, while SeaMoney (the newest part of the business) grew by a staggering 214%.With Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney, Sea Limited has three fast-growing and high-potential businesses. It is quickly becoming a leader in all three, both in its home region and in other key markets around the world, including Latin America, where it is making especially impressive progress. Although its two most exciting businesses are in the earlier stages, I consider it one of the best long-term stock investments for international exposure.4. ShopifyShopify operates a platform designed to allow businesses of all sizes to sell their products online, with a particular focus on empowering smaller businesses. Shopify offers a subscription plan starting at $29 per month for businesses, and it also offers many adjacent services that help businesses operate smoothly.Shopify's \"one-stop shop\" approach to enabling e-commerce has turned it into a powerhouse. It now has more e-commerce sales flowing through its ecosystem than any other company besides Amazon. However, Shopify could be just getting started. The platform has generated just over $5 billion in revenue over the past four quarters, but this is just a fraction of its estimated $153 billion (and growing) market opportunity as more retailers shift their focus to online sales.E-commerce is still in the relatively early stages, making up less than 15% of retail sales in the U.S. With shares down sharply in the recent market downturn due to recession fears and signs of a slowdown in consumer spending, Shopify looks like a clear choice for the best stocks to buy in 2022.5. BlockBlock, formerly known as Square, has evolved from a niche payment processing hardware company to a massive financial ecosystem for merchants and individuals. On the merchant side, Block processed about $188 billion in payment volume over the past four quarters, and it also offers a suite of adjacent services for businesses.On the individual side, Block has the Cash App, with 47 million users, as well as capabilities that include person-to-person money transfers, direct deposits and debit cards, the ability to buy and sell stocks and Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), and much more.Block also recently acquired music app Tidal, plus the Afterpay buy-now, pay-later platform. As its ecosystem evolves, the business should only get stronger.6. MercadoLibreOne of my favorite long-term stock investments in the market, MercadoLibre is often referred to as the Amazon of Latin America, and for good reason. The company operates ane-commercemarketplace that has a dominant presence in some of the most populous nations in the region, including Brazil and Argentina.However, there's a lot more to MercadoLibre. It operates a fast-growing payments platform called Mercado Pago, a logistics service known as Mercado Envios, a business lending platform, and more. The marketplace saw $8.6 billion in merchandise volume in the second quarter of 2022, and Mercado Pago processed more than $120 billion in annualized volume, with about two-thirds coming from outside the company's e-commerce platform. Both are growing rapidly. And don't overlook Mercado Credito, the company's young but fast-growing lending business. Mercado Credito has more than tripled in size over the past year alone, and has $2.7 billion of outstanding loan balances.MercadoLibre isn't just the Amazon of Latin America -- it's the Amazon, PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), Square, Shopify, and more, all rolled into one, and it's at a much earlier stage of growth. In fact, MercadoLibre does just a tiny fraction of Amazon's merchandise volume and PayPal's payment volume despite having leading market shares in Brazil, Argentina, and more. E-commerce and cashless payment adoption are still in their early innings, and MercadoLibre could be a major long-term beneficiary.7. Intuitive SurgicalRobot-assisted surgery beats the shaky hands of humans. That general thesis hasn't changed much from when I first noticed Intuitive Surgical stock in 2005. The da Vinci surgical system is the clear market leader, and the \"razors and blades\" model helps it generate a recurring stream of revenue as its systems are used to perform procedures.Intuitive Surgical is dominant in its space, and it has lots of room to grow as its surgical systems increase in adoption and the number of its supported procedures increases over time. This is particularly true in many international markets, where the implementation of robot-assisted surgery could be a long-tailed growth catalyst for this excellent business for decades to come.8. DisneyThe House of Mouse is the all-weather tires of a portfolio. The pandemic hurt its theme park and movie businesses but helped the Disney+ streaming service, which has grown into a powerhouse years earlier than Disney expected. In fact, Disney+ now has over 150 million subscribers less than three years after launching, while the company's initialfive-yeargoal called for 60-90 million.In 2022, demand for Disney's theme parks and movies is coming back stronger than ever. In fact, revenue is now greater than in comparable pre-pandemic times in Disney's parks due to initiatives that have driven higher per-guest spending. On the streaming side, Disney+ has been a massive success, and the company is rightly focusing on expanding it and the company's other streaming platforms, Hulu and ESPN+.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PINS":0.9,"MELI":0.9,"ISRG":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"SHOP":0.9,"ETSY":0.9,"SE":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995014012,"gmtCreate":1661385774638,"gmtModify":1676536507869,"author":{"id":"4101357063323590","authorId":"4101357063323590","name":"DenToh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0506439ca9206fd2f3abaf486dfb280a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101357063323590","idStr":"4101357063323590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995014012","repostId":"1172569376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172569376","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661399948,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172569376?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-25 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Disaster Guidance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172569376","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia reported its second quarter earnings, missing estimates.Nvidia's Q3 guidance is more i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Nvidia reported its second quarter earnings, missing estimates.</li><li>Nvidia&#39;s Q3 guidance is more important, however. Unfortunately, that guidance was horrendous.</li><li>Nvidia is a quality company and well-positioned in the long run. But near-term issues and a too-high valuation make me stay away for now.</li></ul><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has just reported its most recent quarterly results. Profits were below expectations, but overall, results were more or less in line with what the market had anticipated, as Nvidia had pre-announced some of its results not too long ago.</p><p>The company&#39;s guidance for the current quarter is much worse than expected, however. Nvidia is clearly feeling hefty pressure from the current crypto winter, and it seems questionable to pay $170 or more per share of Nvidia in the current environment.</p><p><b>Q2 Was Worse Than Expected</b></p><p>Nvidia had pre-announced its revenue results for the second quarter earlier, thus there was no major surprise there - analysts adjusted their models accordingly, and Nvidia met the consensus estimate:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c716ed40d45d1089f6ca834756f1e12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"123\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>But the company nevertheless missed estimates, as margin compression was worse than expected. In fact, Nvidia saw its gross margin drop massively, showcased by the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7f7f877afef390846c2b1ff5b54cef9\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>The company&#39;s gross margin dropped from a very attractive 67% to a much less attractive 46% over the last year, almost being cut in half. A 46% gross margin isn&#39;t disastrous in absolute terms, but the hefty margin drop naturally has a huge impact on Nvidia&#39;s profitability.</p><p>Nvidia was widely regarded as a high-end semiconductor company that was able to generate very strong margins due to its excellent product quality. But at least for now, that has apparently ended, as its gross margin is far lower than what we have gotten used to in recent years.</p><p>At the same time, Nvidia also saw its operating expenses explode upwards. This includes research and development, sales, but also administrative costs. WhileNvidia was able to grow its revenue by 3% year over year, operating expenses somehow rose by almost 40% - or around<i>13x as much</i> as the company&#39;s revenue. That is pretty bad, and it is not clear why that happened. Higher R&amp;D expenses aren&#39;t bad per se, at least if those result in strong products that improve the longer-term growth outlook.</p><p>But for a growth company like Nvidia, investors generally want to see operating leverage, meaning operating expenses grow less than revenue and gross profit, as this allows a company to grow its profits faster than its sales. The complete opposite of that happened here, as gross margins dropped severely while operating costs rose much more than Nvidia&#39;s sales and gross profit. The steep profit decline of more than 50% is the logical consequence of that ill-timed increase in Nvidia&#39;s operating expenses.</p><p>With earnings per share at $0.50 for the quarter, Nvidia&#39;s EPS is running at a $2 annual rate. That will most likely drop even further in Q3, as indicated by the pretty weak forward guidance (more on that later). Profits are now back at the level seen in early 2020 when earnings per share were in the $0.50 range as well. It&#39;s important to note that Nvidia was trading at as low as $50 back then, whereas Nvidia is trading at $170 right here -- or more than 80x the Q2 earnings run rate.</p><p>These areNvidia&#39;s non-GAAP results, where items such as share-based compensation are already backed out. GAAP profitability was even worse, as GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.26 -- or around $1 annualized, for a 170x earnings multiple. That&#39;s quite expensive for a company with a 3% top-line growth rate.</p><p><b>Nvidia&#39;s Forward Guidance Is Horrendous</b></p><p>I want to note first that I do believe that Nvidia is a quality company with a positive long-term outlook, thanks to its strong position in growth markets such as AI, autonomous driving, etc. I also want to note that I have been a bull on Nvidia in the past, and shares are up since my last bullish article. But when the facts change and the underlying performance is much worse than previously thought, then it makes sense to reflect one&#39;s formerly bullish stance.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s guidance for the current quarter, Q3, was very bad. The company is forecasting revenues of $5.9 billion for the period, which is not only $1 billion or 15% below the current consensus estimate, but which also indicates a revenue decline of 16.9% versus last year&#39;s Q3 revenue of $7.1 billion. That is comparable to Intel&#39;s (INTC) revenue decline during the most recent quarter, as Intel reported a drop of 17.3% in its top line for the period. In other words, Nvidia is forecasting a revenue drop that is comparable to the one Intel has just reported -- the huge difference is that Intel trades at 2.1x forward sales, whereas Nvidia trades at 15x forward sales, which is a 600% premium relative to how Intel is valued.</p><p>There are good arguments for Nvidia to trade at a premium versus Intel, such as its stronger position in the fast-growing data center market, where Nvidia saw its revenue rise by 60% in Q2, while Intel&#39;s data center dropped. But whether it makes sense for Nvidia to trade at a 600% premium on a sales basis, relative to Intel, while both are seeing their revenues drop, is highly questionable, I believe.</p><p>What&#39;s the explanation for the hefty revenue decline that Nvidia forecasts for the current quarter? It&#39;s not the overall semiconductor market, that&#39;s pretty clear, as the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, or WSTS, has just announced that overall semiconductor revenues would climb 14% in 2022. WhenNvidia&#39;s revenues are falling by double-digits, while the broad semiconductor industry is growing by double-digits, then there must be other factors at work. In Nvidia&#39;s case, that&#39;s the current crypto winter. WhileNvidia&#39;s chips were useless for Bitcoin mining, they were excellent for Ethereum mining due to the algorithm Ethereum uses, which is very GPU-friendly. With crypto prices plunging in 2022, Nvidia is feeling pressure due to two reasons.</p><p>First, the company can sell fewer chips to crypto miners, as Ethereum mining has become less profitable, which is why demand dropped. At the same time, less demand by crypto miners results in a looser supply-demand picture, which leads to price declines for GPUs. This is further accelerated by the fact that some crypto miners are selling the GPUs they own on secondary markets, which further pressures pricing for new GPUs.</p><p>Due to the current crypto winter, Nvidia is thus feeling a double hit from lower sales volumes and lower average margins. That&#39;s luckily partially made up by the strong performance in other areas, such as data centers. But as the weak guidance for the current quarter shows, Nvidia is not able to fully offset the headwinds from the weak crypto environment. It thus looks like investors have to come to terms with the fact that Nvidia&#39;s strong underlying performance was at least partially driven by crypto enthusiasm. Now that crypto has been in a downtrend for some time, that former tailwind is turning into a headwind.</p><p><b>What&#39;s The Outlook?</b></p><p>In the very long term, Nvidia will still be a solid growth company, I believe. Data center demand will continue to grow. Autonomous driving is a long-term megatrend that will lead to rising demand for Nvidia&#39;s Hyperion platform and similar products. But in the near term, the outlook is far from great.</p><p>SinceNvidia is trading at a pretty high valuation of 46x forward earnings, even before those earnings estimates have declined due to the weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance, I do not believe that Nvidia is a great investment at current prices. There are other semiconductor companies with way better near-term growth outlooks that trade at less than halfNvidia&#39;s earnings multiple, such as AMD (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM), and so on. With those picks being available today, I do not see a great reason to buy Nvidia right now. The long-term outlook is positive, but the near-term issues and too-high valuation make me stay away for now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Disaster Guidance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Disaster Guidance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-25 11:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536839-nvidia-disaster-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia reported its second quarter earnings, missing estimates.Nvidia's Q3 guidance is more important, however. Unfortunately, that guidance was horrendous.Nvidia is a quality company and well-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536839-nvidia-disaster-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536839-nvidia-disaster-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172569376","content_text":"SummaryNvidia reported its second quarter earnings, missing estimates.Nvidia's Q3 guidance is more important, however. Unfortunately, that guidance was horrendous.Nvidia is a quality company and well-positioned in the long run. But near-term issues and a too-high valuation make me stay away for now.Article ThesisNvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has just reported its most recent quarterly results. Profits were below expectations, but overall, results were more or less in line with what the market had anticipated, as Nvidia had pre-announced some of its results not too long ago.The company's guidance for the current quarter is much worse than expected, however. Nvidia is clearly feeling hefty pressure from the current crypto winter, and it seems questionable to pay $170 or more per share of Nvidia in the current environment.Q2 Was Worse Than ExpectedNvidia had pre-announced its revenue results for the second quarter earlier, thus there was no major surprise there - analysts adjusted their models accordingly, and Nvidia met the consensus estimate:Seeking AlphaBut the company nevertheless missed estimates, as margin compression was worse than expected. In fact, Nvidia saw its gross margin drop massively, showcased by the following table:Seeking AlphaThe company's gross margin dropped from a very attractive 67% to a much less attractive 46% over the last year, almost being cut in half. A 46% gross margin isn't disastrous in absolute terms, but the hefty margin drop naturally has a huge impact on Nvidia's profitability.Nvidia was widely regarded as a high-end semiconductor company that was able to generate very strong margins due to its excellent product quality. But at least for now, that has apparently ended, as its gross margin is far lower than what we have gotten used to in recent years.At the same time, Nvidia also saw its operating expenses explode upwards. This includes research and development, sales, but also administrative costs. WhileNvidia was able to grow its revenue by 3% year over year, operating expenses somehow rose by almost 40% - or around13x as much as the company's revenue. That is pretty bad, and it is not clear why that happened. Higher R&D expenses aren't bad per se, at least if those result in strong products that improve the longer-term growth outlook.But for a growth company like Nvidia, investors generally want to see operating leverage, meaning operating expenses grow less than revenue and gross profit, as this allows a company to grow its profits faster than its sales. The complete opposite of that happened here, as gross margins dropped severely while operating costs rose much more than Nvidia's sales and gross profit. The steep profit decline of more than 50% is the logical consequence of that ill-timed increase in Nvidia's operating expenses.With earnings per share at $0.50 for the quarter, Nvidia's EPS is running at a $2 annual rate. That will most likely drop even further in Q3, as indicated by the pretty weak forward guidance (more on that later). Profits are now back at the level seen in early 2020 when earnings per share were in the $0.50 range as well. It's important to note that Nvidia was trading at as low as $50 back then, whereas Nvidia is trading at $170 right here -- or more than 80x the Q2 earnings run rate.These areNvidia's non-GAAP results, where items such as share-based compensation are already backed out. GAAP profitability was even worse, as GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.26 -- or around $1 annualized, for a 170x earnings multiple. That's quite expensive for a company with a 3% top-line growth rate.Nvidia's Forward Guidance Is HorrendousI want to note first that I do believe that Nvidia is a quality company with a positive long-term outlook, thanks to its strong position in growth markets such as AI, autonomous driving, etc. I also want to note that I have been a bull on Nvidia in the past, and shares are up since my last bullish article. But when the facts change and the underlying performance is much worse than previously thought, then it makes sense to reflect one's formerly bullish stance.Nvidia's guidance for the current quarter, Q3, was very bad. The company is forecasting revenues of $5.9 billion for the period, which is not only $1 billion or 15% below the current consensus estimate, but which also indicates a revenue decline of 16.9% versus last year's Q3 revenue of $7.1 billion. That is comparable to Intel's (INTC) revenue decline during the most recent quarter, as Intel reported a drop of 17.3% in its top line for the period. In other words, Nvidia is forecasting a revenue drop that is comparable to the one Intel has just reported -- the huge difference is that Intel trades at 2.1x forward sales, whereas Nvidia trades at 15x forward sales, which is a 600% premium relative to how Intel is valued.There are good arguments for Nvidia to trade at a premium versus Intel, such as its stronger position in the fast-growing data center market, where Nvidia saw its revenue rise by 60% in Q2, while Intel's data center dropped. But whether it makes sense for Nvidia to trade at a 600% premium on a sales basis, relative to Intel, while both are seeing their revenues drop, is highly questionable, I believe.What's the explanation for the hefty revenue decline that Nvidia forecasts for the current quarter? It's not the overall semiconductor market, that's pretty clear, as the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, or WSTS, has just announced that overall semiconductor revenues would climb 14% in 2022. WhenNvidia's revenues are falling by double-digits, while the broad semiconductor industry is growing by double-digits, then there must be other factors at work. In Nvidia's case, that's the current crypto winter. WhileNvidia's chips were useless for Bitcoin mining, they were excellent for Ethereum mining due to the algorithm Ethereum uses, which is very GPU-friendly. With crypto prices plunging in 2022, Nvidia is feeling pressure due to two reasons.First, the company can sell fewer chips to crypto miners, as Ethereum mining has become less profitable, which is why demand dropped. At the same time, less demand by crypto miners results in a looser supply-demand picture, which leads to price declines for GPUs. This is further accelerated by the fact that some crypto miners are selling the GPUs they own on secondary markets, which further pressures pricing for new GPUs.Due to the current crypto winter, Nvidia is thus feeling a double hit from lower sales volumes and lower average margins. That's luckily partially made up by the strong performance in other areas, such as data centers. But as the weak guidance for the current quarter shows, Nvidia is not able to fully offset the headwinds from the weak crypto environment. It thus looks like investors have to come to terms with the fact that Nvidia's strong underlying performance was at least partially driven by crypto enthusiasm. Now that crypto has been in a downtrend for some time, that former tailwind is turning into a headwind.What's The Outlook?In the very long term, Nvidia will still be a solid growth company, I believe. Data center demand will continue to grow. Autonomous driving is a long-term megatrend that will lead to rising demand for Nvidia's Hyperion platform and similar products. But in the near term, the outlook is far from great.SinceNvidia is trading at a pretty high valuation of 46x forward earnings, even before those earnings estimates have declined due to the weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance, I do not believe that Nvidia is a great investment at current prices. There are other semiconductor companies with way better near-term growth outlooks that trade at less than halfNvidia's earnings multiple, such as AMD (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM), and so on. With those picks being available today, I do not see a great reason to buy Nvidia right now. The long-term outlook is positive, but the near-term issues and too-high valuation make me stay away for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995015509,"gmtCreate":1661385763403,"gmtModify":1676536507860,"author":{"id":"4101357063323590","authorId":"4101357063323590","name":"DenToh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0506439ca9206fd2f3abaf486dfb280a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101357063323590","idStr":"4101357063323590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995015509","repostId":"1175427057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175427057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661410598,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175427057?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-25 14:56","market":"other","language":"en","title":"VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175427057","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better of","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032.</li><li>Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations as the VTI currently could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually.</li><li>However, profit margin mean reversion and weaker real GDP growth suggest that future returns will be far lower than this.</li><li>The good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meager returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects.</li></ul><p>I last wrote about the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA:VTI) back in May 2021 when I argued that the market was in a &#39;3-sigma&#39; bubble and that rising inflation threatened to be the pin to burst it (<i>see ‘VTI: Rising Inflation May Burst This 3-Sigma Bubble’)</i>. While the VTI went on to rise a further 13% to its December peak, it has since given back all its gains, including the impact of dividend payments. It may pain passive investors to learn that even after the recent decline the VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032 and subjecting them to significant volatility in the coming years.</p><p><b>The VTI ETF</b></p><p>The VTI tracks the performance of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index which measures the total investable U.S. equities market. While the ETF has a similar composition as the SPY, it also included small- and mid-cap companies, and the underlying index has a larger market capitalization of USD44trn versus the S&amp;P500’s USD36trn. The VTI trades at even more extreme valuations relative to the S&amp;P500, while paying an even lower dividend yield.</p><p>The VTI is a popular ETF among buy-and-hold investors as it captures the entire U.S. market and charges an expense ratio of just 0.03% per year. The VTI is a favored market for followers of the Jack Bogle philosophy that &#39;time in the market beats timing the market&#39;. While this is a good rule of thumb to invest by for most people most of the time, it does not tell the full story. There appears to be a large gap between the returns that passive investors expect to achieve over the long term and the returns that are likely based on current valuations. For those disciplined investors who are committed to dollar cost averaging as stock valuations fall, this may not be a problem, but this is easier said than done. There is an overwhelming urge to sell during bear markets as the red ink piles up, and this is particularly the case if stock weakness occurs amid economic weakness and job security declines.</p><p><b>Valuations Are Still Extreme</b></p><p>The VTI&#39;s valuations have fallen somewhat since last year&#39;s peak, driven by a fall in equity prices and a rise in earnings. The trailing PE ratio now sits at 22x. The forward PE ratio (based on expectations of earnings over the next 12 months) sits at 18.9x, which may seem reasonable, particularly relative to the 2020 peak of 29.9x. Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually. Considering the long-term average is around 6%, this is already low, but there are two reasons that suggests future returns are likely to be much lower than this, and quite likely negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3ab64632e1f5546b71c5bf8e134e5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US Stocks: PE Ratio Vs Future 10-Year Annual Returns(Robert Shiller)</p><p><b>Profit Margins Are Unsustainably High:</b> I have written a number of articles about how unsustainably high U.S. profit margins are and how structural economic forces are likely to drive them lower over the long term (<i>see ‘SPX: Expect A Bear Market In Profit Margins’</i>). The current profit margin on the VTI is 10.2% which is significantly above its 10-year average of 8.5%. While data for the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index only goes back 10 years, data for the economy as a whole goes back to the 1940s and shows that profit margins are 60% above their long-term average. I fully expect to see profit margins revert to their long-term mean of 7% over the next decade, which would act as a 4-5% annual drag on equity prices assuming no change in the PE ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e0762399bd27a508aa286b12931511f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US Corporate Earnings, % of GDP(Bloomberg)</p><p><b>Real GDP Growth Will Be Much Lower:</b> Additionally, the 2-3% real returns that have been historically associated with current valuations have been supported by strong real GDP growth, which has averaged over 3%. Such growth rates will be extremely difficult to achieve going forward simply based on slowing population growth, with the working-age population no longer growing at all. When we add in the impact of weaker productivity growth as explained in ‘Brace For Sub-1% Long-Term Growth’, we will be lucky to achieve 1% growth over the next decade.</p><p>Taken together, an elevated PE ratio, unsustainably high profit margins, and a weak real GDP growth outlook suggest that the VTI should be expected to post negative returns over the next decade after taking into account inflation.</p><p><b>There Are Many Alternatives With Higher Return Prospects</b></p><p>The good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meagre returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects. As value investors GMO noted in their recent 7-year Asset Class Forecast, emerging market value stocks are now prices to return over 8% in real terms over the next 7 years. If emerging market stocks seem too risky, a long position here can be combined with U.S. Treasuries, which would help to reduce volatility and the risk of a large drawdown, while still providing returns far higher than the VTI. The U.S 10-year Treasury not only offers a higher yield than investors can expect to receive in the VTI, but it also comes with a track record of performing well during equity market weakness. This is likely to come in handy in preventing the urge to panic during any major equity market selloff.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9328cf20ef5b79bb94b886f0312a71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>7-Year Real Asset Class Forecasts(GMO)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-25 14:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536581-vti-etf-likely-underperform-inflation-over-next-decade><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032.Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536581-vti-etf-likely-underperform-inflation-over-next-decade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536581-vti-etf-likely-underperform-inflation-over-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175427057","content_text":"SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032.Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations as the VTI currently could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually.However, profit margin mean reversion and weaker real GDP growth suggest that future returns will be far lower than this.The good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meager returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects.I last wrote about the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA:VTI) back in May 2021 when I argued that the market was in a '3-sigma' bubble and that rising inflation threatened to be the pin to burst it (see ‘VTI: Rising Inflation May Burst This 3-Sigma Bubble’). While the VTI went on to rise a further 13% to its December peak, it has since given back all its gains, including the impact of dividend payments. It may pain passive investors to learn that even after the recent decline the VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032 and subjecting them to significant volatility in the coming years.The VTI ETFThe VTI tracks the performance of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index which measures the total investable U.S. equities market. While the ETF has a similar composition as the SPY, it also included small- and mid-cap companies, and the underlying index has a larger market capitalization of USD44trn versus the S&P500’s USD36trn. The VTI trades at even more extreme valuations relative to the S&P500, while paying an even lower dividend yield.The VTI is a popular ETF among buy-and-hold investors as it captures the entire U.S. market and charges an expense ratio of just 0.03% per year. The VTI is a favored market for followers of the Jack Bogle philosophy that 'time in the market beats timing the market'. While this is a good rule of thumb to invest by for most people most of the time, it does not tell the full story. There appears to be a large gap between the returns that passive investors expect to achieve over the long term and the returns that are likely based on current valuations. For those disciplined investors who are committed to dollar cost averaging as stock valuations fall, this may not be a problem, but this is easier said than done. There is an overwhelming urge to sell during bear markets as the red ink piles up, and this is particularly the case if stock weakness occurs amid economic weakness and job security declines.Valuations Are Still ExtremeThe VTI's valuations have fallen somewhat since last year's peak, driven by a fall in equity prices and a rise in earnings. The trailing PE ratio now sits at 22x. The forward PE ratio (based on expectations of earnings over the next 12 months) sits at 18.9x, which may seem reasonable, particularly relative to the 2020 peak of 29.9x. Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually. Considering the long-term average is around 6%, this is already low, but there are two reasons that suggests future returns are likely to be much lower than this, and quite likely negative.US Stocks: PE Ratio Vs Future 10-Year Annual Returns(Robert Shiller)Profit Margins Are Unsustainably High: I have written a number of articles about how unsustainably high U.S. profit margins are and how structural economic forces are likely to drive them lower over the long term (see ‘SPX: Expect A Bear Market In Profit Margins’). The current profit margin on the VTI is 10.2% which is significantly above its 10-year average of 8.5%. While data for the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index only goes back 10 years, data for the economy as a whole goes back to the 1940s and shows that profit margins are 60% above their long-term average. I fully expect to see profit margins revert to their long-term mean of 7% over the next decade, which would act as a 4-5% annual drag on equity prices assuming no change in the PE ratio.US Corporate Earnings, % of GDP(Bloomberg)Real GDP Growth Will Be Much Lower: Additionally, the 2-3% real returns that have been historically associated with current valuations have been supported by strong real GDP growth, which has averaged over 3%. Such growth rates will be extremely difficult to achieve going forward simply based on slowing population growth, with the working-age population no longer growing at all. When we add in the impact of weaker productivity growth as explained in ‘Brace For Sub-1% Long-Term Growth’, we will be lucky to achieve 1% growth over the next decade.Taken together, an elevated PE ratio, unsustainably high profit margins, and a weak real GDP growth outlook suggest that the VTI should be expected to post negative returns over the next decade after taking into account inflation.There Are Many Alternatives With Higher Return ProspectsThe good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meagre returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects. As value investors GMO noted in their recent 7-year Asset Class Forecast, emerging market value stocks are now prices to return over 8% in real terms over the next 7 years. If emerging market stocks seem too risky, a long position here can be combined with U.S. Treasuries, which would help to reduce volatility and the risk of a large drawdown, while still providing returns far higher than the VTI. The U.S 10-year Treasury not only offers a higher yield than investors can expect to receive in the VTI, but it also comes with a track record of performing well during equity market weakness. This is likely to come in handy in preventing the urge to panic during any major equity market selloff.7-Year Real Asset Class Forecasts(GMO)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VTI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}