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Amaxyap

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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-11-04
  good
  Is the global semiconductor winter coming?
  在硅周期下行的影响下，半导体行业的冬天来得早了一些。近期，半导体巨头纷纷发布2022年第三季度财报。整体来看，以超威半导体、英特尔为代表的芯片设计厂商业绩几乎都不及预期。即便是台积电、三星电子这样的晶
  Is the global semiconductor winter coming?
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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-10-31
  Hallo
  Change | Citigroup "sang short", XPeng plummeted! Big tech stocks like Tesla fall
  摘要：美股指期货下跌，理想汽车、B站等热门中概股盘前走低；特斯拉、AMD等大型科技股多数下跌。10月31日，美股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.29%，纳指期货跌0.67%，标普500指数期货跌0.45%。
  Change | Citigroup "sang short", XPeng plummeted! Big tech stocks like Tesla fall
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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-10-31
  [财迷]
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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-10-29
  $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-10-29
  $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
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Overall, with Advanced Micro Devices,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The performance of the chip design manufacturers represented by us is almost less than expected.</p><p>Even if<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>Such wafer manufacturing giants have also been affected,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0QB8.UK\">ASML Corporation</a>Equipment manufacturers such as Fanlin Semiconductor are less affected due to the slow transmission of changes in downstream demand.</p><p>These companies are distributed in different links of the semiconductor industry chain, but in this quarter's earnings report or conference call, they almost all lowered their capital expenditures for next year.</p><p>This is the result of a \"domino effect\". According to the data of the American Semiconductor Association, since 1976, global semiconductors have experienced a total of 7 major cycles, and are now in the eighth cycle. Looking back at the past half century of semiconductor history, cyclical fluctuations have run through the history of the industry. It often starts with the mismatch between supply and demand. After experiencing shortages and price increases, investment and production expansion, it finally returns to a new round of mismatch between supply and demand due to the concentrated release of production capacity.</p><p>Each cycle has its own particularity. This round is the superposition of COVID-19 pandemic, the political game between major powers, and the downturn of the global economic situation, and the ups and downs are more obvious.</p><p>A typical example is the unprecedented \"core shortage wave\" in the past two years, which began in COVID-19 pandemic, causing car manufacturers to misestimate the situation, adjust their sales expectations, and then ask foundries to reduce production.</p><p>On the other hand, the epidemic has catalyzed the demand for home office, leading to an increase in the demand for consumer electronics. In addition, due to the sanctions imposed by the United States, Huawei has been forced to stock up on a large scale. This \"butterfly effect\" has also caused panic in the industry. Leading to another wave of chip hoarding.</p><p>A person from a wafer fab told Huxiu that last year, some foundries would separate the production lines originally used to produce automotive electronic chips and switch to producing chips needed for consumer electronics. Today, the chip cycle is declining and the demand for consumer electronics is weak. In turn, automotive chips are still in short supply, and the supply chain is ushering in new adjustments. However, some insiders pointed out that in the third quarter of this year, the production capacity of some automotive chips also loosened.</p><p><b>Chip giant's performance misses expectations</b></p><p>On November 2, Beijing time, semiconductor company AMD released its financial report for the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by 29% compared with the same period last year to US $5.565 billion, which was lower than Wall Street's previous forecast of US $6.5 billion; Under U.S. GAAP, net income was $66 million, a sharp drop of 93%.</p><p>AMD's financial report fell short of expectations, and its net profit declined, mainly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics market, which accounted for the main part of global chip sales.</p><p>Research firm Future Horizons pointed out that mobile phones and personal computers account for almost half of the US $600 billion worth of chips sold globally every year. According to statistics from Strategy Analytics, global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2022 will be 297 million units. A year-on-year decrease of 9%.</p><p>At the same time, the global PC market recorded the biggest quarter of decline in nearly 20 years. According to statistics from third-party consulting firm Gartner, global PC shipments totaled 68 million units in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfaef7d1129a07ac6320ee9eb3df2e3c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source : Strategy Analytics, Gartner</p><p>\"The PC market was very volatile in the third quarter. We expected the market to be weak, but it was weaker than we expected.\" AMD CEO Lisa Su said that the consumer electronics market is currently the weakest. AMD occupies 25.6% of the market share in this market. Customers have become more cautious overall.</p><p>According to AMD's financial report, the revenue of the client business unit linked to the PC business this quarter was US $1.02 billion, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40%. An intuitive comparison is that this business unit reported an operating loss of $26 million in the quarter, compared with an operating profit of $490 million in the same period last year, with an operating margin of 29%.</p><p>However, since Su Zifeng took over AMD, the diversified business strategy she set for the company is currently playing a key role. Despite the poor performance of the client department, server chips and game chips have left a trace of face for AMD's financial report.</p><p>The financial report shows that the turnover of AMD's data center division this quarter was US $1.609 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45%. This is mainly due to the excellent performance of EPYC chips in the server market, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>And proceeds from the acquisition of another startup, Pensando Systems.</p><p>Also affected by the consumer electronics market is Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), which released its third quarter 2022 financial report a week ago, with revenue of US $15.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20%, miss the market expectation; Net profit was US $1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 85%. This report card allowed Intel to lower its full-year performance guidance again.</p><p>The PC and server businesses, which have always been relied on, both declined in the third quarter. PC business (CCG) revenue was US $8.1 billion, down 17% year-on-year; Server chip-related data center and artificial intelligence business (DCAI) fell 27% year-on-year to US $4.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0356720a55199cca06eafaead68d973\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"215\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image credit: Intel</p><p>Although Intel still holds the top spot in the server chip market, it seems to have shown signs of loosening. Statistics from TrendForce show that in the past two quarters, the market share of Intel's X86 server chips has decreased by about 6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to Meta,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Large customers transferred the purchase order of server chips to AMD.</p><p>The main business has encountered a cold winter, sluggish growth, and is attacked from both sides. Since Intel CEO Pat Kissinger took office, he has been focusing on expanding a new growth curve for Intel. In March last year, Intel released the IDM2.0 plan, which mainly consists of three parts, the first is the internal factory network, the second is the third-party production capacity, and the new Intel foundry service.</p><p>Pat emphasized that IDM2.0 is a magic weapon to win. On the one hand, it can make use of the internal factory network, and on the other hand, it can strategically make use of external foundries to deliver leading products and provide new advanced foundry capacity for the industry.</p><p>Recently, the helm of Intel proposed that Intel could use its factory in Ohio to provide AMD and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Provide OEM services. He said in a later statement that Intel hopes to become Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The preferred provider of.</p><p>However, the industry still expresses concerns about Intel's foundry model that the road is \"long and difficult\". Chip foundry and IDM are two completely different business models. Chip foundry needs to be closely bound with customers, grow together with customers, and conduct research and development technology. IDM produces its own products and sets its own specifications. Even an IDM factory<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>, it took a long time to get through its own OEM model, and its yield rate is still criticized so far.</p><p>A very real problem is that nowadays, almost all customers of advanced manufacturing processes choose TSMC for OEM. The cost of changing suppliers is extremely high and the possibility is very small. How can Intel grab share from TSMC? On the other hand, how can Intel make its competitors confidently hand over their advanced process business and become Intel customers at the same time.</p><p>In addition, Intel has been weak in advancing advanced manufacturing processes. According to the latest report from TrendForce, due to the drag of the Intel 7 process, the current yield rate of the new generation Xeon processor Sapphire Rapids is estimated to be only about 50%-60%, and the mass production time will be postponed from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year.</p><p>Perhaps Intel can undertake the OEM of some mature manufacturing processes, but advanced manufacturing processes are the core of high profits. It will take time to get through this path, which has also caused Intel's embarrassing situation today.</p><p>However, some veterans in the chip industry told Huxiu that it is difficult for Intel to advance in advanced manufacturing processes. By cooperating with external customers, it can also help Intel accumulate some processes and know-how, which will have certain benefits for its process improvement.</p><p>In the past three years, the semiconductor industry has experienced an unprecedented \"core shortage wave\", and now it is facing weak demand for consumer electronics. Global semiconductor uncertainty remains dominant.</p><p><b>The tide recedes, only TSMC is not swimming naked?</b></p><p>Fabs showed great resilience in the third quarter of this year.</p><p>The third quarterly report of global foundry giant TSMC shows that during the period, the company achieved revenue of US $20.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.4%, and an operating profit margin of 50.6%, both exceeding market expectations.</p><p>The company's strong performance this quarter is closely related to its top customer Apple. According to the information released by TSMC in 2021, 25.93% of the company's operating income comes from Apple. Considering the latter's outstanding performance in the smartphone market this year, we can fully understand the reasons for TSMC's surge in performance.</p><p>According to the financial report, in the third quarter of this year, the proportion of advanced process chips in TSMC's revenue further expanded. Chips with 7nm and above processes accounted for 54% of the total revenue, of which 7nm accounted for 26%, and 5nm surpassed 7nm for the first time. The proportion reached 28%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3427da5efd05b6c1037b3eb5f3c519fb\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>But even so, TSMC President Wei Zhejia expressed his concerns about the market in 2023 at the financial report meeting. He said that the semiconductor industry may decline in 2023. \"The main reason is that TSMC will continue to face challenges in the delivery of semiconductor equipment.\"</p><p>In addition, at this legal conference, Wei Zhejia pointed out that customers' demand for 3nm exceeds TSMC's supply, partly due to persistent machine delivery problems. It is estimated that production will be fully loaded next year, and 3nm revenue will account for About 4-6%. Today, TSMC and Samsung Electronics have become the only two targets to compete after entering the 7nm manufacturing process, which may make TSMC make a lot of money.</p><p>Previously, when Nvidia released the RTX 40 series graphics card with a 4nm process, CEO Huang Renxun once complained, \"The current chip foundry is not a little more expensive, but a huge price increase.\" Huang Renxun's statement is by no means sensational. TSMC's gross profit margin in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 50.6%, and by the third quarter of this year, the company's gross profit margin has soared to 60.4%.</p><p>According to the statistics of International Business Strategy Company, a third-party analysis organization in the United States, the foundry price of a 5-nanometer process chip is US $25,000, and the cost of a single chip is US $12,500. The foundry price of the 3-nanometer process is expected to be as high as US $30,000.</p><p>However, the situation of IDM company Samsung Electronics is not very optimistic. Although the company pointed out in its financial report that the revenue and profit of the wafer foundry business in this quarter achieved the \"best results in history\", it was dragged down by the memory chip market. Samsung Electronics' DS (semiconductor) division performed poorly in the third quarter, with revenue achieving 23.02 trillion won during the period, down 14% year-on-year; Operating profit was 5.12 trillion won, down 49% year-on-year.</p><p><b>Equipment manufacturers, can they still guarantee harvests during droughts and floods?</b></p><p>Compared with tough foundries, equipment manufacturers have risen against the trend this quarter.</p><p>October 19th, European time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>ASML released its financial report for the third quarter of 2022, achieving revenue of 5.778 billion euros in the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%; Net profit was 1.701 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 2.24%. This performance was higher than the expectations of research firm Refinitiv, whose analysts had previously expected sales of 5.41 billion euros and net profit of 1.42 billion euros.</p><p>Although there are frequent reports in the industry that design manufacturers have cut orders, in fact, the pace of fab expansion has not stagnated. According to statistics from the International Institute of Obstetrics of the Taiwan Industrial Research Institute, 41 fabs will be built around the world from 2022 to 2025. These newly built fabs will provide support for the performance of equipment manufacturers this year.</p><p>In addition, since the equipment side is at the upstream of the semiconductor industry chain, even if the current demand in the terminal market is becoming increasingly sluggish, changes in demand will not be immediately transmitted to them.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the third quarter, ASML sold a total of 86 lithography units. Although affected by the U.S. chip restrictions, the company's revenue share in the Chinese mainland market increased from 10% in the previous quarter to 15%. Earlier, according to Bloomberg News, ASML has assured investors that the latest U.S. export control measures restricting China's access to cutting-edge semiconductor technology will have a \"fairly limited\" impact on the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba9b9ef8a169a1598b5096312ad7e2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54d81ac505eecb9f8c3211916d0fa107\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: ASML</p><p>However, it should be noted that some head equipment manufacturers have already felt the impact of the \"chip restriction order\".</p><p>In the early morning of October 20, Beijing time, global semiconductor equipment giant Lam Group released its quarterly financial report as of September 25, with revenue of US $5.1 billion for the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%; Net profit was US $1.426 billion, up from US $1.18 billion last year; But the gross profit margin was 44.5%, which was not as good as last quarter's 46.1%.</p><p>Compared with ASML, Lam Group has a larger market share in mainland China. The financial report shows that in the third quarter, Lam Group's revenue in the Chinese mainland market accounted for as much as 30%.</p><p>At the performance exchange meeting after the release of the financial report, the company's CEO Timothy Archer said, \"Recently, the U.S. government announced new export regulations, including wafer manufacturing equipment and related parts and services. For the natural year 2023, we estimate that these restrictions will have an impact on total revenue. The impact is between $2 billion and $2.5 billion.\"</p><p><b>Results of the chip cycle</b></p><p>In the current semiconductor industry, production capacity is king. In addition, the cyclical fluctuations of semiconductors will begin to be transmitted from the downstream, and chip design manufacturers will be the first to be affected. This is one of the reasons why the performance of chip design companies this year is lower than expected.</p><p>However, the current semiconductor industry is not the decline of a certain industry or link, but the result of cyclical fluctuations in the industry. Due to the influence of the shortage of cores, many manufacturers are frantically hoarding goods, resulting in an imbalance in market demand. This is the time to eliminate inventory. Some supply chain sources told Huxiu that chip manufacturers have hoarded hundreds of billions of yuan in chips.</p><p>According to the latest data released by the Semiconductor Association of America (SIA), in the third quarter of 2022, global semiconductor sales totaled US $141 billion, a decrease of 3% from the same period last year and a decrease of 6.3% from the second quarter. SIA President and CEO John Neuffer believes that after experiencing strong growth in the first half of the year, the semiconductor industry has experienced its first sales decline since 2020.</p><p>Substituted into this cycle, due to the massive consumption of chips caused by the rise of new energy vehicles and the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the industrial chain, the semiconductor industry has experienced a large supply gap. Major manufacturers have increased capital expenditures in the past two years. In this process, affected by the macroeconomic downturn, consumer electronics has weakened, the inventory hoarded by terminal manufacturers has not been consumed in time, and the total market supply has begun to exceed demand.</p><p>Market analysis agency Future Horizons believes that in 2021, the capital expenditure of the global semiconductor industry will increase by 45%, which will lead to an increase in production capacity in the second half of this year, leading to oversupply.</p><p>Against this background, neither IC design manufacturers nor wafer foundries may be immune.</p><p>At a time when the semiconductor industry enters a downward cycle, chip companies cutting capital expenditures is a necessary measure to restore the balance between chip supply and demand. TSMC made it clear at the third quarter performance exchange meeting that capital expenditures in 2022 will be reduced to US $36 billion from the previously estimated US $44 billion to US $40 billion.</p><p>As of November 3, including TSMC, Intel,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">UMC</a>, Micron and other global foundry giants have announced plans to cut capital expenditures.</p><p>Industry insiders said that after this cycle downturn, the semiconductor industry may enter a more rational growth situation. It is expected that in the second half of next year, the inventory of consumer electronics will slowly decrease, and the market will gradually enter a dynamic balance of supply and demand.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the global semiconductor winter coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the global semiconductor winter coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">虎嗅</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-04 21:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Under the influence of the downward trend of the silicon cycle, the winter of the semiconductor industry came earlier.</p><p>Recently, semiconductor giants have released financial reports for the third quarter of 2022. Overall, with Advanced Micro Devices,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The performance of the chip design manufacturers represented by us is almost less than expected.</p><p>Even if<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>Such wafer manufacturing giants have also been affected,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0QB8.UK\">ASML Corporation</a>Equipment manufacturers such as Fanlin Semiconductor are less affected due to the slow transmission of changes in downstream demand.</p><p>These companies are distributed in different links of the semiconductor industry chain, but in this quarter's earnings report or conference call, they almost all lowered their capital expenditures for next year.</p><p>This is the result of a \"domino effect\". According to the data of the American Semiconductor Association, since 1976, global semiconductors have experienced a total of 7 major cycles, and are now in the eighth cycle. Looking back at the past half century of semiconductor history, cyclical fluctuations have run through the history of the industry. It often starts with the mismatch between supply and demand. After experiencing shortages and price increases, investment and production expansion, it finally returns to a new round of mismatch between supply and demand due to the concentrated release of production capacity.</p><p>Each cycle has its own particularity. This round is the superposition of COVID-19 pandemic, the political game between major powers, and the downturn of the global economic situation, and the ups and downs are more obvious.</p><p>A typical example is the unprecedented \"core shortage wave\" in the past two years, which began in COVID-19 pandemic, causing car manufacturers to misestimate the situation, adjust their sales expectations, and then ask foundries to reduce production.</p><p>On the other hand, the epidemic has catalyzed the demand for home office, leading to an increase in the demand for consumer electronics. In addition, due to the sanctions imposed by the United States, Huawei has been forced to stock up on a large scale. This \"butterfly effect\" has also caused panic in the industry. Leading to another wave of chip hoarding.</p><p>A person from a wafer fab told Huxiu that last year, some foundries would separate the production lines originally used to produce automotive electronic chips and switch to producing chips needed for consumer electronics. Today, the chip cycle is declining and the demand for consumer electronics is weak. In turn, automotive chips are still in short supply, and the supply chain is ushering in new adjustments. However, some insiders pointed out that in the third quarter of this year, the production capacity of some automotive chips also loosened.</p><p><b>Chip giant's performance misses expectations</b></p><p>On November 2, Beijing time, semiconductor company AMD released its financial report for the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by 29% compared with the same period last year to US $5.565 billion, which was lower than Wall Street's previous forecast of US $6.5 billion; Under U.S. GAAP, net income was $66 million, a sharp drop of 93%.</p><p>AMD's financial report fell short of expectations, and its net profit declined, mainly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics market, which accounted for the main part of global chip sales.</p><p>Research firm Future Horizons pointed out that mobile phones and personal computers account for almost half of the US $600 billion worth of chips sold globally every year. According to statistics from Strategy Analytics, global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2022 will be 297 million units. A year-on-year decrease of 9%.</p><p>At the same time, the global PC market recorded the biggest quarter of decline in nearly 20 years. According to statistics from third-party consulting firm Gartner, global PC shipments totaled 68 million units in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfaef7d1129a07ac6320ee9eb3df2e3c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source : Strategy Analytics, Gartner</p><p>\"The PC market was very volatile in the third quarter. We expected the market to be weak, but it was weaker than we expected.\" AMD CEO Lisa Su said that the consumer electronics market is currently the weakest. AMD occupies 25.6% of the market share in this market. Customers have become more cautious overall.</p><p>According to AMD's financial report, the revenue of the client business unit linked to the PC business this quarter was US $1.02 billion, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40%. An intuitive comparison is that this business unit reported an operating loss of $26 million in the quarter, compared with an operating profit of $490 million in the same period last year, with an operating margin of 29%.</p><p>However, since Su Zifeng took over AMD, the diversified business strategy she set for the company is currently playing a key role. Despite the poor performance of the client department, server chips and game chips have left a trace of face for AMD's financial report.</p><p>The financial report shows that the turnover of AMD's data center division this quarter was US $1.609 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45%. This is mainly due to the excellent performance of EPYC chips in the server market, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>And proceeds from the acquisition of another startup, Pensando Systems.</p><p>Also affected by the consumer electronics market is Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), which released its third quarter 2022 financial report a week ago, with revenue of US $15.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20%, miss the market expectation; Net profit was US $1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 85%. This report card allowed Intel to lower its full-year performance guidance again.</p><p>The PC and server businesses, which have always been relied on, both declined in the third quarter. PC business (CCG) revenue was US $8.1 billion, down 17% year-on-year; Server chip-related data center and artificial intelligence business (DCAI) fell 27% year-on-year to US $4.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0356720a55199cca06eafaead68d973\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"215\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image credit: Intel</p><p>Although Intel still holds the top spot in the server chip market, it seems to have shown signs of loosening. Statistics from TrendForce show that in the past two quarters, the market share of Intel's X86 server chips has decreased by about 6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to Meta,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Large customers transferred the purchase order of server chips to AMD.</p><p>The main business has encountered a cold winter, sluggish growth, and is attacked from both sides. Since Intel CEO Pat Kissinger took office, he has been focusing on expanding a new growth curve for Intel. In March last year, Intel released the IDM2.0 plan, which mainly consists of three parts, the first is the internal factory network, the second is the third-party production capacity, and the new Intel foundry service.</p><p>Pat emphasized that IDM2.0 is a magic weapon to win. On the one hand, it can make use of the internal factory network, and on the other hand, it can strategically make use of external foundries to deliver leading products and provide new advanced foundry capacity for the industry.</p><p>Recently, the helm of Intel proposed that Intel could use its factory in Ohio to provide AMD and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Provide OEM services. He said in a later statement that Intel hopes to become Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The preferred provider of.</p><p>However, the industry still expresses concerns about Intel's foundry model that the road is \"long and difficult\". Chip foundry and IDM are two completely different business models. Chip foundry needs to be closely bound with customers, grow together with customers, and conduct research and development technology. IDM produces its own products and sets its own specifications. Even an IDM factory<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>, it took a long time to get through its own OEM model, and its yield rate is still criticized so far.</p><p>A very real problem is that nowadays, almost all customers of advanced manufacturing processes choose TSMC for OEM. The cost of changing suppliers is extremely high and the possibility is very small. How can Intel grab share from TSMC? On the other hand, how can Intel make its competitors confidently hand over their advanced process business and become Intel customers at the same time.</p><p>In addition, Intel has been weak in advancing advanced manufacturing processes. According to the latest report from TrendForce, due to the drag of the Intel 7 process, the current yield rate of the new generation Xeon processor Sapphire Rapids is estimated to be only about 50%-60%, and the mass production time will be postponed from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year.</p><p>Perhaps Intel can undertake the OEM of some mature manufacturing processes, but advanced manufacturing processes are the core of high profits. It will take time to get through this path, which has also caused Intel's embarrassing situation today.</p><p>However, some veterans in the chip industry told Huxiu that it is difficult for Intel to advance in advanced manufacturing processes. By cooperating with external customers, it can also help Intel accumulate some processes and know-how, which will have certain benefits for its process improvement.</p><p>In the past three years, the semiconductor industry has experienced an unprecedented \"core shortage wave\", and now it is facing weak demand for consumer electronics. Global semiconductor uncertainty remains dominant.</p><p><b>The tide recedes, only TSMC is not swimming naked?</b></p><p>Fabs showed great resilience in the third quarter of this year.</p><p>The third quarterly report of global foundry giant TSMC shows that during the period, the company achieved revenue of US $20.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.4%, and an operating profit margin of 50.6%, both exceeding market expectations.</p><p>The company's strong performance this quarter is closely related to its top customer Apple. According to the information released by TSMC in 2021, 25.93% of the company's operating income comes from Apple. Considering the latter's outstanding performance in the smartphone market this year, we can fully understand the reasons for TSMC's surge in performance.</p><p>According to the financial report, in the third quarter of this year, the proportion of advanced process chips in TSMC's revenue further expanded. Chips with 7nm and above processes accounted for 54% of the total revenue, of which 7nm accounted for 26%, and 5nm surpassed 7nm for the first time. The proportion reached 28%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3427da5efd05b6c1037b3eb5f3c519fb\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>But even so, TSMC President Wei Zhejia expressed his concerns about the market in 2023 at the financial report meeting. He said that the semiconductor industry may decline in 2023. \"The main reason is that TSMC will continue to face challenges in the delivery of semiconductor equipment.\"</p><p>In addition, at this legal conference, Wei Zhejia pointed out that customers' demand for 3nm exceeds TSMC's supply, partly due to persistent machine delivery problems. It is estimated that production will be fully loaded next year, and 3nm revenue will account for About 4-6%. Today, TSMC and Samsung Electronics have become the only two targets to compete after entering the 7nm manufacturing process, which may make TSMC make a lot of money.</p><p>Previously, when Nvidia released the RTX 40 series graphics card with a 4nm process, CEO Huang Renxun once complained, \"The current chip foundry is not a little more expensive, but a huge price increase.\" Huang Renxun's statement is by no means sensational. TSMC's gross profit margin in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 50.6%, and by the third quarter of this year, the company's gross profit margin has soared to 60.4%.</p><p>According to the statistics of International Business Strategy Company, a third-party analysis organization in the United States, the foundry price of a 5-nanometer process chip is US $25,000, and the cost of a single chip is US $12,500. The foundry price of the 3-nanometer process is expected to be as high as US $30,000.</p><p>However, the situation of IDM company Samsung Electronics is not very optimistic. Although the company pointed out in its financial report that the revenue and profit of the wafer foundry business in this quarter achieved the \"best results in history\", it was dragged down by the memory chip market. Samsung Electronics' DS (semiconductor) division performed poorly in the third quarter, with revenue achieving 23.02 trillion won during the period, down 14% year-on-year; Operating profit was 5.12 trillion won, down 49% year-on-year.</p><p><b>Equipment manufacturers, can they still guarantee harvests during droughts and floods?</b></p><p>Compared with tough foundries, equipment manufacturers have risen against the trend this quarter.</p><p>October 19th, European time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>ASML released its financial report for the third quarter of 2022, achieving revenue of 5.778 billion euros in the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%; Net profit was 1.701 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 2.24%. This performance was higher than the expectations of research firm Refinitiv, whose analysts had previously expected sales of 5.41 billion euros and net profit of 1.42 billion euros.</p><p>Although there are frequent reports in the industry that design manufacturers have cut orders, in fact, the pace of fab expansion has not stagnated. According to statistics from the International Institute of Obstetrics of the Taiwan Industrial Research Institute, 41 fabs will be built around the world from 2022 to 2025. These newly built fabs will provide support for the performance of equipment manufacturers this year.</p><p>In addition, since the equipment side is at the upstream of the semiconductor industry chain, even if the current demand in the terminal market is becoming increasingly sluggish, changes in demand will not be immediately transmitted to them.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the third quarter, ASML sold a total of 86 lithography units. Although affected by the U.S. chip restrictions, the company's revenue share in the Chinese mainland market increased from 10% in the previous quarter to 15%. Earlier, according to Bloomberg News, ASML has assured investors that the latest U.S. export control measures restricting China's access to cutting-edge semiconductor technology will have a \"fairly limited\" impact on the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba9b9ef8a169a1598b5096312ad7e2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54d81ac505eecb9f8c3211916d0fa107\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: ASML</p><p>However, it should be noted that some head equipment manufacturers have already felt the impact of the \"chip restriction order\".</p><p>In the early morning of October 20, Beijing time, global semiconductor equipment giant Lam Group released its quarterly financial report as of September 25, with revenue of US $5.1 billion for the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%; Net profit was US $1.426 billion, up from US $1.18 billion last year; But the gross profit margin was 44.5%, which was not as good as last quarter's 46.1%.</p><p>Compared with ASML, Lam Group has a larger market share in mainland China. The financial report shows that in the third quarter, Lam Group's revenue in the Chinese mainland market accounted for as much as 30%.</p><p>At the performance exchange meeting after the release of the financial report, the company's CEO Timothy Archer said, \"Recently, the U.S. government announced new export regulations, including wafer manufacturing equipment and related parts and services. For the natural year 2023, we estimate that these restrictions will have an impact on total revenue. The impact is between $2 billion and $2.5 billion.\"</p><p><b>Results of the chip cycle</b></p><p>In the current semiconductor industry, production capacity is king. In addition, the cyclical fluctuations of semiconductors will begin to be transmitted from the downstream, and chip design manufacturers will be the first to be affected. This is one of the reasons why the performance of chip design companies this year is lower than expected.</p><p>However, the current semiconductor industry is not the decline of a certain industry or link, but the result of cyclical fluctuations in the industry. Due to the influence of the shortage of cores, many manufacturers are frantically hoarding goods, resulting in an imbalance in market demand. This is the time to eliminate inventory. Some supply chain sources told Huxiu that chip manufacturers have hoarded hundreds of billions of yuan in chips.</p><p>According to the latest data released by the Semiconductor Association of America (SIA), in the third quarter of 2022, global semiconductor sales totaled US $141 billion, a decrease of 3% from the same period last year and a decrease of 6.3% from the second quarter. SIA President and CEO John Neuffer believes that after experiencing strong growth in the first half of the year, the semiconductor industry has experienced its first sales decline since 2020.</p><p>Substituted into this cycle, due to the massive consumption of chips caused by the rise of new energy vehicles and the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the industrial chain, the semiconductor industry has experienced a large supply gap. Major manufacturers have increased capital expenditures in the past two years. In this process, affected by the macroeconomic downturn, consumer electronics has weakened, the inventory hoarded by terminal manufacturers has not been consumed in time, and the total market supply has begun to exceed demand.</p><p>Market analysis agency Future Horizons believes that in 2021, the capital expenditure of the global semiconductor industry will increase by 45%, which will lead to an increase in production capacity in the second half of this year, leading to oversupply.</p><p>Against this background, neither IC design manufacturers nor wafer foundries may be immune.</p><p>At a time when the semiconductor industry enters a downward cycle, chip companies cutting capital expenditures is a necessary measure to restore the balance between chip supply and demand. TSMC made it clear at the third quarter performance exchange meeting that capital expenditures in 2022 will be reduced to US $36 billion from the previously estimated US $44 billion to US $40 billion.</p><p>As of November 3, including TSMC, Intel,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">UMC</a>, Micron and other global foundry giants have announced plans to cut capital expenditures.</p><p>Industry insiders said that after this cycle downturn, the semiconductor industry may enter a more rational growth situation. It is expected that in the second half of next year, the inventory of consumer electronics will slowly decrease, and the market will gradually enter a dynamic balance of supply and demand.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/705078.html\">虎嗅</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf6345268d9eae05162598f583f5003","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/705078.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2280505819","content_text":"在硅周期下行的影响下，半导体行业的冬天来得早了一些。近期，半导体巨头纷纷发布2022年第三季度财报。整体来看，以超威半导体、英特尔为代表的芯片设计厂商业绩几乎都不及预期。即便是台积电、三星电子这样的晶圆制造巨头也受到波及，阿斯麦公司、泛林半导体这类的设备厂商由于收到下游需求变化的传导较慢，所受影响较小。这些公司分布在半导体产业链的不同环节，但在本季度的财报或是电话会议中，他们几乎都下调了明年的资本支出。这是一次“多米诺骨牌效应”引发的结果。从美国半导体协会的数据看出，从1976年至今，全球半导体一共经历了7轮大周期，现在正处于第八轮周期之中。回顾半导体过去半个世纪的历史，周期性波动贯穿了行业历史。往往都是从供需错配开始，在经历缺货涨价、投资扩产后，最后又因产能集中释放回到新一轮的供需错配。每轮周期都有其特殊性，这一轮是新冠疫情、大国政治博弈、全球经济形势下行的叠加，起伏更加明显。一个典型的例子就是过去两年里，前所未有的“缺芯潮”，始于新冠疫情，导致车厂错误估计了形势，调整其销售预期，进而向代工厂提出减产要求。另一方面则是疫情催化了居家办公的需求，导致消费电子的需求上升，再加上由于美国的制裁，迫使华为大规模囤货，这一“蝴蝶效应”也引来了业界的恐慌，导致又一波芯片的囤货潮。有晶圆厂人士告诉虎嗅，去年，一些代工厂会将原本用于生产汽车电子芯片的产线分离出来，转而生产消费电子所需的芯片。如今，芯片周期下行，消费电子需求疲软，反过来汽车芯片仍然紧缺，供应链又迎来新的调整。不过，有业内人士指出，今年三季度，一些汽车芯片方面的产能也有所松动。芯片巨头业绩不及预期北京时间11月2日，半导体公司AMD发布2022年三季度财报，营收较去年同期增长29%，达55.65亿美元，低于华尔街此前给出的65亿美元预期；在美国通用会计准则下，净利润为6600万美元，大幅下降93%。此次AMD财报不及预期，净利润下滑，主要来源于消费电子市场需求的疲软，这占据了全球芯片销量的主要部分。研究公司Future Horizons指出，在每年全球销售的价值6000亿美元的芯片中，手机和个人电脑几乎占据了一半，另据Strategy Analytics的统计结果，2022年三季度全球智能手机出货量为2.97亿部，同比下降9%。与此同时，全球PC市场更是创下了近20年来最大降幅的一个季度。根据第三方咨询机构Gartner的统计，全球PC在第三季度的出货量总计6800万台，同比下降19.5%。数据来源：Strategy Analytics、Gartner“三季度PC市场非常不稳定，我们预计市场会疲软，但它比我们预期的还要疲软。”AMD CEO苏姿丰称，目前消费电子市场最为薄弱，AMD在这一市场中占据25.6%的市场份额，客户总体变得更加谨慎。根据AMD财报，与PC业务挂钩的客户端事业部本季度营收10.2亿美元，同比下滑近40%。一个直观的对比是，本季度该业务部门经营亏损为2600万美元，去年同期该业务的经营利润为4.9亿美元，经营利润率为29%。不过，自苏姿丰接手AMD以来，她给公司定下的多元化经营战略在当下正发挥着关键的作用，尽管客户端部门表现不佳，但服务器芯片及游戏芯片为AMD的这份财报留下了一丝颜面。财报显示，本季度AMD数据中心事业部营业额为16.09亿美元，同比增长45%。这主要得益于霄龙芯片在服务器市场的优异表现，以及赛灵思和收购的另一家初创公司Pensando Systems带来的收益。同样受消费电子市场影响的还有英特尔（NASDAQ:INTC），这家公司在一周前发布了2022年第三季度财报，营收为153亿美元，同比下降20%，不及市场预期；净利润为10亿美元，同比下降85%，这份成绩单让英特尔再次下调全年业绩指引。一直以来依仗的PC以及服务器业务，在三季度均下滑。PC业务（CCG）营收81亿美元，同比下滑17%；服务器芯片相关的数据中心和人工智能业务（DCAI），同比下滑27%至42亿美元。图片来源：Intel尽管英特尔仍掌握服务器芯片市场的头把交椅，但似乎已经出现松动的迹象。集邦咨询的统计数据显示，过去两个季度，英特尔X86服务器芯片的市占率同比减少了约6个百分点，主要原因是Meta、微软等大客户把服务器芯片的采购转单给了AMD。主营业务遇到寒冬、增长乏力，且腹背受敌。英特尔CEO帕特·基辛格上台之后，一直着力于为英特尔拓展新的增长曲线。去年三月，英特尔发布了IDM2.0计划，该计划主要有三个部分，首先是内部工厂网络，其次为第三方产能，还有全新的英特尔代工服务。帕特强调，IDM2.0是制胜法宝，一方面可以利用内部工厂网络，另一方面战略性利用外部代工厂，交付领先产品，为行业提供新的先进代工产能。近期，这位英特尔的掌舵人又提出，英特尔可以利用其在俄亥俄州的工厂，为AMD和英伟达提供代工服务。他在之后的声明中表示，英特尔希望成为英伟达、高通和苹果的首选提供商。但业界仍对英特尔开展代工模式表示出“道阻且长”的担忧。芯片代工和IDM是两种完全不同的商业模式，芯片代工需要与客户紧密绑定，和客户共同成长，进行研发技术。而IDM是生产自己的产品，自己定规格。即便是IDM厂三星，在走通自己的代工模式也花了很长时间，且至今其良率仍被人诟病。一个很现实的问题是，如今，先进制程的客户几乎都选择台积电进行代工，更换供应商的代价极大，可能性很小，英特尔如何从台积电那里抢到份额？另一方面，英特尔又如何让其竞争对手放心地将自己的先进制程业务交出，并同时成为英特尔的客户。另外，英特尔在先进制程上一直推进乏力，根据集邦咨询的最新报告，受制于Intel 7工艺的拖累，新一代至强处理器Sapphire Rapids目前的良品率估计只有大约50%-60%，量产时间从今年第四季度推迟到了明年上半年。或许英特尔可以承接一些成熟制程的代工，但先进制程才是高利润的核心，要走通这条路，需要时间，这也造成了英特尔如今的尴尬局面。不过，也有芯片产业资深人士告诉虎嗅，英特尔如今在先进制程上难以推进，通过与外部客户合作的方式，也能够帮助英特尔积累一些工艺和know-how，对其工艺提升有一定的好处。在过去的三年里，半导体行业经历了史无前例的“缺芯潮”，如今又迎来了消费电子的需求疲软。全球半导体的不确定性仍是主导。潮水退去，只有台积电没在裸泳？晶圆厂在今年第三季度表现出了极强的韧性。全球代工巨头台积电三季报显示，期内该公司实现营收202亿美元，同比增长35.9%，环比增长11.4%，营业利润率达50.6%，均超出市场预期。这家公司在本季度的强势表现与头部客户苹果息息相关。根据2021年台积电公布的信息，公司有25.93%的营业收入来自于苹果，考虑到后者在今年智能手机市场一枝独秀的表现，也完全能理解台积电业绩大涨的原因。根据财报，在今年第三季度，先进制程芯片在台积电的营收占比中进一步扩大，7nm及以上制程的芯片占总营收的54%，其中7nm占比26%，5nm则首次超越7nm，占比达到28%。但即便如此，台积电总裁魏哲家在财报会上表达了其对于2023年市场的担忧，他表示，半导体行业可能会在2023年出现下滑，“主要原因在于台积电将持续面临半导体设备的交付挑战”。另外，此次法说会上，魏哲家指出，客户对3纳米的需求超越台积电的供应量，部分原因来自持续存在的机台交期问题，预估明年将满载生产，3纳米营收占比约为4-6%。如今，台积电和三星电子已经成为了进入7纳米制程之后，唯二竞逐的对象，这或将使台积电赚得盆满钵满。此前，英伟达在发布4nm制程的RTX 40系列显卡时，CEO黄仁勋就曾吐槽过，“现在的芯片代工不是贵一点点，而是巨幅涨价。”黄仁勋此言绝非是在耸人听闻，台积电在2021年四季度的毛利率为50.6%，而到了今年三季度，这家公司的毛利率已经飙升至60.4%。根据美国第三方分析机构国际商业战略公司统计，5纳米制程的芯片代工价格为25000美元，单片成本为12500美元。3纳米制程预计代工价格将高达30000美元。但IDM企业三星电子，情况并不太乐观，尽管该公司在财报中指出，本季度晶圆代工业务的营收和利润都创下了“史上最好成绩”，但受存储芯片市场的拖累，三星电子的DS（半导体）部门第三季度表现不佳，期内营收实现23.02万亿韩元，同比下滑14%；运营利润5.12万亿韩元，同比下滑49%。设备厂商，还能否旱涝保收？相较于坚韧的代工厂商，本季度设备厂商更是实现了逆势上涨。欧洲时间10月19日，阿斯麦ASML公司发布2022年第三季度财报，当季实现营收57.78亿欧元，同比增长10.25%；净利润为17.01亿欧元，同比下降2.24%。这份业绩高于调研机构Refinitiv的预期，此前该机构分析师预计的销售额为54.1亿欧元，净利润14.2亿欧元。尽管业内频繁传出设计厂商砍单，但实际上，晶圆厂扩建的步伐并未停滞。根据中国台湾工研院产科国际所统计的数据，2022年至2025年期间全球将兴建41座晶圆厂，这些新建的晶圆厂为今年设备厂商的业绩提供了支撑。此外，由于设备端处于半导体产业链的最上游，即使目前终端市场的需求日渐萎靡，需求变化也不会立即传导给它们。值得一提的是，在第三季度，阿斯麦共售出86台光刻机，虽然受美国芯片限令的影响，但该公司在中国大陆市场的收入占比从上个季度的10%提升至15%。此前，据彭博社报道，ASML已向投资者保证，美国限制中国获取尖端半导体技术的最新出口管制措施，对该公司的影响“相当有限”。数据来源：ASML但需要说明的是，一些头部设备厂商已经感受到“芯片限令”带来的影响。北京时间10月20日凌晨，全球半导体设备巨头泛林集团发布截至9月25日的季度财报，当季营收51亿美元，同比增长17.9%；净利润为14.26亿美元，高于去年11.8亿美元；但毛利率44.5%，不如上季的46.1%。相较于阿斯麦，泛林集团在中国大陆的市场份额更多。财报显示，第三季度泛林集团在中国大陆市场的收入占比高达30%。在财报发布后的业绩交流会上，公司CEO Timothy Archer表示，“近日美国政府公布了出口新规，包括晶圆制造设备及相关零部件和服务。对于2023自然年，我们估计，这些限制对总收入的影响在20亿至25亿美元之间”。芯片周期的结果当下的半导体行业，产能为王。另外，半导体的周期性波动，将会由下游开始传导，芯片设计厂商最先受到波及，这也是今年芯片设计公司业绩不及预期的原因之一。不过，当前的半导体行业并不是某一行业或是某一环节的衰落，而是行业周期性波动的结果。由于在缺芯潮影响下，诸多厂商疯狂囤货导致市场需求的失衡，此时是消解库存的时候。有供应链人士告诉虎嗅，已有芯片商囤积了几千亿元的芯片。美国半导体协会（SIA）发布的最新数据显示，2022年第三季度，全球半导体销售总额为1410亿美元，较去年同期下降3%，较第二季度环比下降6.3%。SIA总裁兼CEO John Neuffer认为，在经历上半年的强劲增长后，半导体行业出现了自2020年以后的首次销售额下降。代入到本轮周期下，此前由于新能源汽车兴起对芯片的大量消耗，叠加新冠疫情对产业链的冲击，半导体产业出现较大的供应缺口，各大厂商在过去两年纷纷加大资本开支，在这一过程中，受宏观经济下行的影响，消费电子出现疲软，终端厂商囤积的库存没有得到及时消耗，市场总供给开始高于需求。市场分析机构Future Horizons认为，在2021年，全球半导体产业资本支出增长45%，这将导致今年下半年投产的产能增加，导致供应过剩。在这样的背景下，无论是IC设计厂商，还是晶圆代工厂商，恐怕都难以独善其身。在半导体产业进入下行周期的时刻，芯片企业削减资本支出是恢复芯片供需平衡的必要举措。台积电在三季度业绩交流会上明确表示，2022年的资本支出将从此前预计的440亿-400亿美元下调至360亿美元。截至11月3日，包括台积电、英特尔、联电、美光等全球代工巨头都公布了削减资本支出的计划。业界人士表示，这场周期下行之后，半导体行业或将进入一个较为理性的增长局面，预计明年下半年，消费电子的库存将慢慢消减，市场逐渐进入供需的动态平衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":1,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982597216,"gmtCreate":1667204279235,"gmtModify":1676537876650,"author":{"id":"4123222115080672","authorId":"4123222115080672","name":"Amaxyap","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/702895f37a9b0d8249aa67573c993d21","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4123222115080672","idStr":"4123222115080672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hallo&nbsp;","listText":"Hallo&nbsp;","text":"Hallo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982597216","repostId":"1129342816","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129342816","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667204022,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129342816?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 16:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Change | Citigroup \"sang short\", XPeng plummeted! Big tech stocks like Tesla fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129342816","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股指期货下跌，理想汽车、B站等热门中概股盘前走低；特斯拉、AMD等大型科技股多数下跌。10月31日，美股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.29%，纳指期货跌0.67%，标普500指数期货跌0.45%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary: U.S. stock index futures fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, Bilibili and other popular Chinese concept stocks fell before the market;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, AMD and other large technology stocks mostly fell.</b>On October 31, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow futures falling 0.29%, Nasdaq futures falling 0.67%, and S&P 500 futures falling 0.45%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f222b8289c61f243b65ee010995151d4\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down more than 2%. (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rating downgraded to sell from buy, target price lowered to $3.18 from $27.87)</p><p>Most large technology stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, AMD fell more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Fell nearly 1%.</p><p>Oil stocks fell premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR.A\">Brasil Petroleum</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It rose about 2% before the market, after announcing the details of the plan to raise 4 billion Swiss francs by placing new shares to investors, which is expected to seek approval at the special shareholders' meeting on November 23.</p><p>TAL fell more than 3% before the market, and Q2 revenue fell 79.6% year-on-year.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Change | Citigroup \"sang short\", XPeng plummeted! Big tech stocks like Tesla fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChange | Citigroup \"sang short\", XPeng plummeted! Big tech stocks like Tesla fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-31 16:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary: U.S. stock index futures fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, Bilibili and other popular Chinese concept stocks fell before the market;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, AMD and other large technology stocks mostly fell.</b>On October 31, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow futures falling 0.29%, Nasdaq futures falling 0.67%, and S&P 500 futures falling 0.45%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f222b8289c61f243b65ee010995151d4\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down more than 2%. (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rating downgraded to sell from buy, target price lowered to $3.18 from $27.87)</p><p>Most large technology stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, AMD fell more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Fell nearly 1%.</p><p>Oil stocks fell premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR.A\">Brasil Petroleum</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It rose about 2% before the market, after announcing the details of the plan to raise 4 billion Swiss francs by placing new shares to investors, which is expected to seek approval at the special shareholders' meeting on November 23.</p><p>TAL fell more than 3% before the market, and Q2 revenue fell 79.6% year-on-year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","BK1587":"次新股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK1539":"汽车股","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","03086":"华夏纳指","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LI":"理想汽车","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK4207":"综合性银行","JD":"京东","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK1588":"回港中概股","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","C":"花旗","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129342816","content_text":"摘要：美股指期货下跌，理想汽车、B站等热门中概股盘前走低；特斯拉、AMD等大型科技股多数下跌。10月31日，美股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.29%，纳指期货跌0.67%，标普500指数期货跌0.45%。热门中概股盘前走低，小鹏汽车跌超5%，理想汽车跌超4%，携程网、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，百度、京东跌超2%。(花旗将小鹏汽车评级从买入下调至卖出，目标价从27.87美元下调至3.18美元)大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉、AMD跌超1%，英伟达、微软、苹果跌近1%。石油股盘前下跌，巴西石油跌超8%，道达尔、英国石油跌逾2%。瑞士信贷盘前涨约2%，此前公布向投资者配售新股募集40亿瑞士法郎的计划细节，预计将于11月23日特别股东大会上寻求批准。好未来盘前跌超3%，Q2营收同比下降79.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"03086":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"C":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"JD":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"LI":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982597314,"gmtCreate":1667204220738,"gmtModify":1676537876634,"author":{"id":"4123222115080672","authorId":"4123222115080672","name":"Amaxyap","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/702895f37a9b0d8249aa67573c993d21","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4123222115080672","idStr":"4123222115080672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c551d47889aaa0b63945f8e09e848ce9","width":"750","height":"940"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982597314","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982002604,"gmtCreate":1667031971308,"gmtModify":1676537852482,"author":{"id":"4123222115080672","authorId":"4123222115080672","name":"Amaxyap","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/702895f37a9b0d8249aa67573c993d21","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4123222115080672","idStr":"4123222115080672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d3036082a205afc98f42ef909bc7414","width":"750","height":"1360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982002604","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982002333,"gmtCreate":1667031913123,"gmtModify":1676537852474,"author":{"id":"4123222115080672","authorId":"4123222115080672","name":"Amaxyap","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/702895f37a9b0d8249aa67573c993d21","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4123222115080672","idStr":"4123222115080672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d0ba22208735b0f2113763dba7ced0a","width":"750","height":"1360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982002333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}