(1) & (3): instead of hoarding gold and oil as hedges (as I'm not familiar with these), I had sold 1/3 of a position which had tripled in value over the cost price. (2) After consecutive blockbuster earnings, the "market" has set unrealistic expectations for Nvidia, this is not the first time and long term investors are already expecting this to happen.
The era for AI as a headline buzzword seems to have come to an end. However, the narrative on this theme hasn't - it has just pivoted to the market demanding to see real returns aka monetisation. A new business model after SaaS need to be presented to convince the market
Every investor's situation is different and it is more so between retail investors Vs institutions. For retail investors like you and I, we lose to inflation if we try to time the market and sit on cash. For the Oracle, he has a never been a serious investor in tech and hence his actions may not be indicative of a tech bubble burst. For NVIDIA and Microsoft, the formers' hardware is pretty much needed especially when AI is no longer fantasy stuff. For Microsoft, their software are deeply entrenched in corporates and it wouldn't be. possible to unravel it overnight when a respectable alternate is not apparent over the horizon for a silky smooth plug-n-play. Unless Microsoft wishes to be the next Kodiak, I wouldn't imagine that it will sit around and do nothing. Would it be possible then to
The switch from AI-Euphoria to AI-phobia is not new as we have seen the same trick last year while Deep Seek was paraded as the bogeyman. It's the convenient excuse to peg a time to take a pause and lock in the profits when the naive retail investors catches the falling knifes. I believe a new narrative will emerge soon that the tech giants are in-fact already in the game or that the new kids on the block are being acquired under their fold. What can't be solved with their deep pockets? Unless they would like to be another kodiak. I've started accumulating on companies that will still be dominating in immediate future.
Traditionally banks stocks are considered cyclical in nature and the results have shown that the net interest income will definitely take a hit following the rate cuts. However, banks are no longer the dinosaurs and they have evolved their business model for growth and diversification. We should continue to monitor the results for the coming 2 or 3 quarters before we pass our judgement. For investors, the price actions are just noises and it is the fundamentals that matters.