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David 1687
2021-05-08

Is Boeing Stock a Buy in 2021?

波音的股价自从在2019年3月达到历史最高点后，就受到了737 MAX停飞和疫情的双重打击，两年过去了至今还没恢复过来。展望未来，波音的复苏之路也不是很顺利，而且737 MAX仍在中国停飞，并面临着电

Is Boeing Stock a Buy in 2021?

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Yuyi
·2021-05-09
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":107667247,"tweetId":"107667247","gmtCreate":1620483027789,"gmtModify":1704344270228,"author":{"id":3583563863440771,"idStr":"3583563863440771","authorId":3583563863440771,"authorIdStr":"3583563863440771","name":"David 1687","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b157762339ba1ee4ba36c63726ede25","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107667247","repostId":1129750415,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129750415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620468958,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129750415?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is Boeing Stock a Buy in 2021?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129750415","media":"猛兽财经","summary":"波音的股价自从在2019年3月达到历史最高点后，就受到了737 MAX停飞和疫情的双重打击，两年过去了至今还没恢复过来。展望未来，波音的复苏之路也不是很顺利，而且737 MAX仍在中国停飞，并面临着电","content":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Since its stock price reached an all-time high in March 2019, it has been hit by the grounding of the 737 MAX and the epidemic. Two years have passed and it has not yet recovered. Looking ahead, Boeing's road to recovery hasn't been very smooth either, and the 737 MAX is still grounded in China and facing problems with its electrical system. In addition, the recovery in international travel has also been slower than expected.The market generally expects that Boeing will achieve positive profitability and cash flow in fiscal year 2022, and this year's revenue will exceed the level of 2019, but in the view of Beast Finance, the market is still too optimistic. While the market's long-term expectations for passenger traffic growth and aircraft demand remain unchanged, we still believe that buying Boeing stock in 2021 is not a good investment. Because in addition to the uncertain timing of the launch of the new 737 MAX model and the speed of the recovery in international travel, the market also values Boeing higher than rival Airbus. Given these factors, we don't think Boeing is a good buy in 2021.Company IntroductionOn Boeing's website, you can see that Boeing claims that Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company, the world's leading manufacturer of civil aircraft and defense, space and security systems, and a provider of after-sales support services. As the largest manufacturing exporter in the United States, Boeing supports airline and government customers in more than 150 countries and regions around the world. Boeing's products and customized services include: civil and military aircraft, satellites, weapons, electronic and defense systems, launch systems, advanced information and communication systems, and performance-based logistics and training.Boeing has three business units: Commercial Aircraft Group, Defense, Space and Security Group, and Boeing Global Services Group. As a global provider of financial solutions, Boeing Financial is responsible for supporting these business groups.In addition, there are functional organizations that work at the entire company level, focusing on engineering and project management, technical and research and development project execution, advanced design and manufacturing systems, safety, finance, quality and productivity improvement, and information technology.But we all know that the global commercial aircraft market has long been duopolised by Boeing and Airbus.Prior to the grounding of the 737 MAX in 2019 and the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, Boeing generated 57% and 65% of its fiscal 2018 revenue and operating profit, respectively, from its core commercial aircraft business. In fiscal year 2018, the revenue contributed by defense, space and security, global services and financial businesses accounted for 26%, 17% and 1% of Boeing's overall revenue respectively.In fiscal year 2020, revenue from commercial aircraft, defense, space and security, global services and financial businesses accounted for 28%, 45%, 26% and 1% of Boeing's overall revenue respectively. Boeing's core commercial aircraft business unit has been losing money in fiscal 2019, fiscal 2020 and the first quarter of fiscal 2021.In this article, Beast Finance mainly focuses on Boeing's commercial aircraft business, because this business once contributed the largest revenue to Boeing and this business is the key for Boeing to narrow losses and eventually return to profitability in the future.Boeing's stock priceBoeing's stock price reached an all-time high of $430.30 on March 1, 2019, mainly because the company reported a month ago on January 30, 2019, its fiscal 2018 revenue and profit record highs.However, the good days didn't last long. Boeing's 737 MAX passenger plane was grounded after the Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX passenger plane crashed in March 2019. As of December 31, 2019, Boeing's stock price has fallen 25% from its all-time high to $323.83.On December 16, 2019, Boeing announced that it would \"suspend production of the 737 program.\" A week later, on December 23, 2019, Boeing revealed that its chairman David l. Calhoun would replace Dennis A. Muilenburg as the company's new CEO.To make matters worse, on March 20, 2020, with the outbreak of the epidemic, Boeing's stock price fell to $95.01, setting a five-year low. The epidemic is another major blow to Boeing's core commercial aircraft business, as countries have imposed travel restrictions to fight the epidemic and global air travel has stopped.Boeing's stock price eventually fell from $323.83 on December 31, 2019 to $214.06 on December 31, 2020, a drop of 34%. But its shares have since jumped another 125% from their March lows. Specifically, Boeing's stock price rebounded strongly in November and December 2020 on positive news about the lifting of the grounding of the 737 MAX and vaccinations. On Nov. 18, 2020, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifted its grounding order on the 737 MAX. Separately, the World Health Organization noted in December 2020 that the \"first mass vaccination program\" had begun.In 2021, Boeing's stock price will continue to rebound. Since the beginning of this year, Boeing's stock price has risen 7%, from $214.06 on December 31, 2020 to $228.18 on May 5, 2021. While it is safe to say that Boeing's worst is over, the road to recovery will certainly not be smooth sailing.Can Boeing's share price continue to recoverBeast Finance believes that the key to whether Boeing's stock price can continue to recover lies in whether its core commercial aircraft business unit can reduce losses in time and regain profitability. And the future prospects for Boeing's commercial aircraft business are in turn impacted by 737 MAX deliveries and the resumption of global travel.So far, revenue from Boeing's commercial aircraft business has fallen 31% year-on-year, from US $6.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to US $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2021. This is already an improvement from the 50% decline in revenue for the full year of fiscal 2020. In addition, part of the operating loss of the commercial aircraft business also decreased from US $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to US $900 million in the most recent quarter. The improvement was primarily due to the resumption of deliveries of the 737 MAX after the Federal Aviation Administration lifted its grounding order on the 737 MAX in November 2020. As of April 26, 2021, Boeing has delivered more than 85 737MAX aircraft. It is worth noting that Boeing also received new orders for 737 aircraft from some other airlines in the United States.On the other hand, the 737 MAX is still waiting to land in China, a major aviation market. During its first quarter 2021 earnings call on April 28, 2021, Boeing acknowledged that \"we are still awaiting regulatory approval from China for the 737 MAX\" and that \"its timing will impact our 737 delivery plans\" and \"future productivity rates\". To further complicate the matter, whether China can lift the grounding order of the 737 MAX is not just a safety issue, because U.S.-China relations may also be an important factor in determining when the 737 MAX will be approved to resume service in China.More importantly, there are still many problems with the 737 MAX aircraft itself. Reuters reported on April 29, 2021 that the Federal Aviation Administration has asked Boeing to \"fix connectivity problems in the electrical systems of some of its 737 MAX aircraft that may cause engine protection measures to fail and critical functions of the cockpit to fail.\" Reuters then published another article on May 5, 2021, emphasizing the requirement that Boeing provide the FAA with \"up-to-date documentation to prove that the 737 MAX subsystem is not affected by electrical connectivity problems.\" Boeing earlier disclosed at the end of April 2021 that about \"100 aircraft in service were affected by electrical system problems\", which would result in \"very few deliveries in April.\"In other words, getting the 737 MAX back to normal delivery levels could take longer than expected.Separately, the resumption of global travel is another key factor that has a significant impact on Boeing's core commercial aircraft business. The latest news released by the International Air Transport Association on May 4th shows that the prospect of global air travel is bleak in the near future. According to the International Air Transport Association, the number of kilometers flown by passengers worldwide is still about one-third of what it was before the pandemic (that is, March 2019). Compared with domestic travel, international travel is expected to take longer to resume.Global Travel Data and Trends<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b27b9e7d4e601fe5b8504d6617226e\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99a53447a89ee63ca432ae05ca7a611\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48841f1f97ed09d443ecb67dbe2ffd1\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: International Air Transport AssociationApart from that, there are other, more complicating factors. In April 2021, the WHO noted that it did not support the resumption of global travel given \"uncertainty about whether vaccination will prevent the spread of the pandemic and equity concerns,\" Reuters reported. A few days ago, the IATA also warned that travel resumption \"could be dangerously impacted by [high] costs.\" More importantly, as the graph below shows, the 2019 pandemic has been uneven in containment around the world. While the number of weekly confirmed cases in the United States has dropped significantly, confirmed cases continue to increase in places such as India and Latin America.Confirmed cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia around the world<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a1ab352a9a07223c40c479d1fd3c58\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: International Air Transport AssociationIn short, although Boeing's commercial aircraft business will definitely recover eventually, the timing of the recovery is still very uncertain, mainly due to the complications we mentioned above.Financial projections for BoeingBoeing reiterated at its first-quarter 2021 results presentation that \"in line with the International Air Transport Association and other industry groups, we expect passenger traffic to return to 2019 levels from 2023 to 2024. Boeing also added on the earnings call,\" The recovery in the commercial aircraft business will allow us to achieve positive cash flow in 2022. \"A sell-side analyst will typically be consistent with the company's management in their future financial projections. According to data from S&P Capital IQ, the market generally believes that Boeing'S revenue will increase by 37% and 12% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively, to $79.8 billion and $89.5 billion. Wall Street expects Boeing's revenue to be flat in fiscal 2023 and increase 8% year-over-year to $96 billion in fiscal 2024. For reference, Boeing had revenue of $76.6 billion in fiscal 2019 and sales of $101.1 billion in fiscal 2020.Boeing is also on track to be profitable in fiscal 2022, with operating cash flow and free cash flow of $9.4 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively, according to the consensus estimate of sell-side analysts. Over the last two years of fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020, Boeing's operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative, and it is expected to remain unchanged in fiscal 2021. Notably, Boeing's operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2021 was-$3.4 billion, an improvement from-$4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2020. Nonetheless, Boeing emphasized on its first-quarter 2021 earnings call that \"our cash flow position is largely dependent on the availability of remaining 737 MAX regulatory approvals, the recovery of the commercial aircraft business and ongoing discussions with customers on fleet planning needs.In the view of Beast Finance, the current market is still a bit too optimistic about Boeing's financial forecast. At present, the epidemic is on the rise again in some parts of the world, and the recovery speed of international travel is slower than expected. And what is still uncertain is whether Boeing's latest electrical system problems will cause further delays in 737 MAX deliveries. We think there is a good chance that sell-side analysts will consider lowering their financial forecasts for Boeing in the coming quarters.Should You Buy Boeing Stock in 2021?In the long run, we really like Boeing, a very good enterprise. More importantly, the duopoly pattern of companies like Airbus and Boeing in commercial aircraft is unlikely to be challenged by any company in the foreseeable future, because there are huge barriers to entry in this field in terms of scale and capital.On the other hand, Boeing stock may not be as attractive in the near term. The reason is what we mentioned earlier. The current market is still too optimistic about Boeing's financial forecast, and the market's valuation of Boeing is higher than that of its competitor Airbus, and more 737 MAX aircraft are still suffering from current electrical system problems. The impact, as well as factors such as the epidemic taking longer than expected to be effectively controlled, prompted us to reach this conclusion.","source":"lsy1586862168255","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Boeing Stock a Buy in 2021?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Boeing Stock a Buy in 2021?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n猛兽财经2021-05-08 18:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Since its stock price reached an all-time high in March 2019, it has been hit by the grounding of the 737 MAX and the epidemic. Two years have passed and it has not yet recovered. Looking ahead, Boeing's road to recovery hasn't been very smooth either, and the 737 MAX is still grounded in China and facing problems with its electrical system. In addition, the recovery in international travel has also been slower than expected.The market generally expects that Boeing will achieve positive profitability and cash flow in fiscal year 2022, and this year's revenue will exceed the level of 2019, but in the view of Beast Finance, the market is still too optimistic. While the market's long-term expectations for passenger traffic growth and aircraft demand remain unchanged, we still believe that buying Boeing stock in 2021 is not a good investment. Because in addition to the uncertain timing of the launch of the new 737 MAX model and the speed of the recovery in international travel, the market also values Boeing higher than rival Airbus. Given these factors, we don't think Boeing is a good buy in 2021.Company IntroductionOn Boeing's website, you can see that Boeing claims that Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company, the world's leading manufacturer of civil aircraft and defense, space and security systems, and a provider of after-sales support services. As the largest manufacturing exporter in the United States, Boeing supports airline and government customers in more than 150 countries and regions around the world. Boeing's products and customized services include: civil and military aircraft, satellites, weapons, electronic and defense systems, launch systems, advanced information and communication systems, and performance-based logistics and training.Boeing has three business units: Commercial Aircraft Group, Defense, Space and Security Group, and Boeing Global Services Group. As a global provider of financial solutions, Boeing Financial is responsible for supporting these business groups.In addition, there are functional organizations that work at the entire company level, focusing on engineering and project management, technical and research and development project execution, advanced design and manufacturing systems, safety, finance, quality and productivity improvement, and information technology.But we all know that the global commercial aircraft market has long been duopolised by Boeing and Airbus.Prior to the grounding of the 737 MAX in 2019 and the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, Boeing generated 57% and 65% of its fiscal 2018 revenue and operating profit, respectively, from its core commercial aircraft business. In fiscal year 2018, the revenue contributed by defense, space and security, global services and financial businesses accounted for 26%, 17% and 1% of Boeing's overall revenue respectively.In fiscal year 2020, revenue from commercial aircraft, defense, space and security, global services and financial businesses accounted for 28%, 45%, 26% and 1% of Boeing's overall revenue respectively. Boeing's core commercial aircraft business unit has been losing money in fiscal 2019, fiscal 2020 and the first quarter of fiscal 2021.In this article, Beast Finance mainly focuses on Boeing's commercial aircraft business, because this business once contributed the largest revenue to Boeing and this business is the key for Boeing to narrow losses and eventually return to profitability in the future.Boeing's stock priceBoeing's stock price reached an all-time high of $430.30 on March 1, 2019, mainly because the company reported a month ago on January 30, 2019, its fiscal 2018 revenue and profit record highs.However, the good days didn't last long. Boeing's 737 MAX passenger plane was grounded after the Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX passenger plane crashed in March 2019. As of December 31, 2019, Boeing's stock price has fallen 25% from its all-time high to $323.83.On December 16, 2019, Boeing announced that it would \"suspend production of the 737 program.\" A week later, on December 23, 2019, Boeing revealed that its chairman David l. Calhoun would replace Dennis A. Muilenburg as the company's new CEO.To make matters worse, on March 20, 2020, with the outbreak of the epidemic, Boeing's stock price fell to $95.01, setting a five-year low. The epidemic is another major blow to Boeing's core commercial aircraft business, as countries have imposed travel restrictions to fight the epidemic and global air travel has stopped.Boeing's stock price eventually fell from $323.83 on December 31, 2019 to $214.06 on December 31, 2020, a drop of 34%. But its shares have since jumped another 125% from their March lows. Specifically, Boeing's stock price rebounded strongly in November and December 2020 on positive news about the lifting of the grounding of the 737 MAX and vaccinations. On Nov. 18, 2020, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifted its grounding order on the 737 MAX. Separately, the World Health Organization noted in December 2020 that the \"first mass vaccination program\" had begun.In 2021, Boeing's stock price will continue to rebound. Since the beginning of this year, Boeing's stock price has risen 7%, from $214.06 on December 31, 2020 to $228.18 on May 5, 2021. While it is safe to say that Boeing's worst is over, the road to recovery will certainly not be smooth sailing.Can Boeing's share price continue to recoverBeast Finance believes that the key to whether Boeing's stock price can continue to recover lies in whether its core commercial aircraft business unit can reduce losses in time and regain profitability. And the future prospects for Boeing's commercial aircraft business are in turn impacted by 737 MAX deliveries and the resumption of global travel.So far, revenue from Boeing's commercial aircraft business has fallen 31% year-on-year, from US $6.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to US $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2021. This is already an improvement from the 50% decline in revenue for the full year of fiscal 2020. In addition, part of the operating loss of the commercial aircraft business also decreased from US $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to US $900 million in the most recent quarter. The improvement was primarily due to the resumption of deliveries of the 737 MAX after the Federal Aviation Administration lifted its grounding order on the 737 MAX in November 2020. As of April 26, 2021, Boeing has delivered more than 85 737MAX aircraft. It is worth noting that Boeing also received new orders for 737 aircraft from some other airlines in the United States.On the other hand, the 737 MAX is still waiting to land in China, a major aviation market. During its first quarter 2021 earnings call on April 28, 2021, Boeing acknowledged that \"we are still awaiting regulatory approval from China for the 737 MAX\" and that \"its timing will impact our 737 delivery plans\" and \"future productivity rates\". To further complicate the matter, whether China can lift the grounding order of the 737 MAX is not just a safety issue, because U.S.-China relations may also be an important factor in determining when the 737 MAX will be approved to resume service in China.More importantly, there are still many problems with the 737 MAX aircraft itself. Reuters reported on April 29, 2021 that the Federal Aviation Administration has asked Boeing to \"fix connectivity problems in the electrical systems of some of its 737 MAX aircraft that may cause engine protection measures to fail and critical functions of the cockpit to fail.\" Reuters then published another article on May 5, 2021, emphasizing the requirement that Boeing provide the FAA with \"up-to-date documentation to prove that the 737 MAX subsystem is not affected by electrical connectivity problems.\" Boeing earlier disclosed at the end of April 2021 that about \"100 aircraft in service were affected by electrical system problems\", which would result in \"very few deliveries in April.\"In other words, getting the 737 MAX back to normal delivery levels could take longer than expected.Separately, the resumption of global travel is another key factor that has a significant impact on Boeing's core commercial aircraft business. The latest news released by the International Air Transport Association on May 4th shows that the prospect of global air travel is bleak in the near future. According to the International Air Transport Association, the number of kilometers flown by passengers worldwide is still about one-third of what it was before the pandemic (that is, March 2019). Compared with domestic travel, international travel is expected to take longer to resume.Global Travel Data and Trends<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b27b9e7d4e601fe5b8504d6617226e\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99a53447a89ee63ca432ae05ca7a611\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48841f1f97ed09d443ecb67dbe2ffd1\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: International Air Transport AssociationApart from that, there are other, more complicating factors. In April 2021, the WHO noted that it did not support the resumption of global travel given \"uncertainty about whether vaccination will prevent the spread of the pandemic and equity concerns,\" Reuters reported. A few days ago, the IATA also warned that travel resumption \"could be dangerously impacted by [high] costs.\" More importantly, as the graph below shows, the 2019 pandemic has been uneven in containment around the world. While the number of weekly confirmed cases in the United States has dropped significantly, confirmed cases continue to increase in places such as India and Latin America.Confirmed cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia around the world<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a1ab352a9a07223c40c479d1fd3c58\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: International Air Transport AssociationIn short, although Boeing's commercial aircraft business will definitely recover eventually, the timing of the recovery is still very uncertain, mainly due to the complications we mentioned above.Financial projections for BoeingBoeing reiterated at its first-quarter 2021 results presentation that \"in line with the International Air Transport Association and other industry groups, we expect passenger traffic to return to 2019 levels from 2023 to 2024. Boeing also added on the earnings call,\" The recovery in the commercial aircraft business will allow us to achieve positive cash flow in 2022. \"A sell-side analyst will typically be consistent with the company's management in their future financial projections. According to data from S&P Capital IQ, the market generally believes that Boeing'S revenue will increase by 37% and 12% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively, to $79.8 billion and $89.5 billion. Wall Street expects Boeing's revenue to be flat in fiscal 2023 and increase 8% year-over-year to $96 billion in fiscal 2024. For reference, Boeing had revenue of $76.6 billion in fiscal 2019 and sales of $101.1 billion in fiscal 2020.Boeing is also on track to be profitable in fiscal 2022, with operating cash flow and free cash flow of $9.4 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively, according to the consensus estimate of sell-side analysts. Over the last two years of fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020, Boeing's operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative, and it is expected to remain unchanged in fiscal 2021. Notably, Boeing's operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2021 was-$3.4 billion, an improvement from-$4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2020. Nonetheless, Boeing emphasized on its first-quarter 2021 earnings call that \"our cash flow position is largely dependent on the availability of remaining 737 MAX regulatory approvals, the recovery of the commercial aircraft business and ongoing discussions with customers on fleet planning needs.In the view of Beast Finance, the current market is still a bit too optimistic about Boeing's financial forecast. At present, the epidemic is on the rise again in some parts of the world, and the recovery speed of international travel is slower than expected. And what is still uncertain is whether Boeing's latest electrical system problems will cause further delays in 737 MAX deliveries. We think there is a good chance that sell-side analysts will consider lowering their financial forecasts for Boeing in the coming quarters.Should You Buy Boeing Stock in 2021?In the long run, we really like Boeing, a very good enterprise. More importantly, the duopoly pattern of companies like Airbus and Boeing in commercial aircraft is unlikely to be challenged by any company in the foreseeable future, because there are huge barriers to entry in this field in terms of scale and capital.On the other hand, Boeing stock may not be as attractive in the near term. The reason is what we mentioned earlier. The current market is still too optimistic about Boeing's financial forecast, and the market's valuation of Boeing is higher than that of its competitor Airbus, and more 737 MAX aircraft are still suffering from current electrical system problems. The impact, as well as factors such as the epidemic taking longer than expected to be effectively controlled, prompted us to reach this conclusion.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H-dZ6S6YFsOHwpuTgXAlgw\">猛兽财经</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db65f3d4f6f7c47bb1a0c9e744a2fd64","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H-dZ6S6YFsOHwpuTgXAlgw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129750415","content_text":"波音的股价自从在2019年3月达到历史最高点后，就受到了737 MAX停飞和疫情的双重打击，两年过去了至今还没恢复过来。展望未来，波音的复苏之路也不是很顺利，而且737 MAX仍在中国停飞，并面临着电气系统的问题。此外，国际旅行的复苏速度也比预期的要慢。市场普遍预期，波音将在2022财年实现盈利和现金流转正，今年的收入将超过2019年的水平，但在猛兽财经看来，市场还是太乐观了。虽然市场对客流量的增长和飞机需求的长期预期保持不变，但我们还是认为在2021年买入波音的股票不是一项好的投资。因为除了737 MAX新机型的推出时间和国际旅行的复苏速度不确定之外，市场对波音的估值也比竞争对手空客高。考虑到这些因素，我们认为波音在2021年不是一个好的买入对象。公司介绍在波音网站上可以看到波音宣称波音公司是全球最大的航空航天业公司，也是世界领先的民用飞机和防务、空间与安全系统制造商，以及售后支持服务提供商。作为美国最大的制造出口商，波音公司为分布在全球150多个国家和地区的航空公司和政府客户提供支持。波音的产品以及定制的服务包括：民用和军用飞机、卫星、武器、电子和防御系统、发射系统、先进信息和通讯系统，以及基于性能的物流和培训等。波音公司下设三个业务部门：商用飞机集团，防务、空间与安全集团，以及波音全球服务集团。作为金融解决方案的全球提供者，波音金融公司负责支持这些业务集团。此外，还有一些在整个公司层面工作的职能组织，关注工程和项目管理、技术和研发项目执行、先进设计和制造系统、安全、财务、质量和生产力改进，以及信息技术。但我们都知道，全球商用飞机市场早已被波音和空客这两家公司双头垄断了。在2019年737 MAX停飞和2020年疫情爆发之前，波音2018财年的收入和运营利润分别有57%和65%来自其核心商用飞机业务。2018财年，防务、空间与安全、全球服务和金融业务贡献的收入分别占到了波音整体收入的26%、17%和1%。在2020财年，来自商用飞机、国防、空间与安全、全球服务和金融业务贡献的收入分别占到了波音整体收入的28%、45%、26%和1%。而波音公司的核心商用飞机业务部门在2019财年、2020财年和2021财年第一季度一直处于亏损状态。在本文中，猛兽财经主要关注的是波音的商用飞机业务，因为这项业务曾为波音贡献了最大的收入以及该业务是波音缩小亏损并最终在未来恢复盈利的关键。波音的股价波音的股价在2019年3月1日达到了430.30美元的历史最高点，主要是因为该公司在一个月前的2019年1月30日公布的其2018财年收入和利润都创造了历史新高。然而好日子并没有持续多久。2019年3月，埃塞俄比亚航空公司的737 MAX客机坠毁后，波音的737 MAX客机就被停飞了。截至2019年12月31日，波音的股价已经从其历史最高点下跌了25%，至323.83美元。2019年12月16日，波音公司宣布将“暂停737项目的生产”。一周后，也就是2019年12月23日，波音公司透露，其董事长大卫·l·卡尔霍恩将取代丹尼斯·A·米伦伯格成为公司的新CEO。更糟糕的是，2020年3月20日，随着疫情的爆发，波音股价跌到了95.01美元，创下了五年来的新低。这次疫情对波音核心商用飞机业务来说又是一次重大打击，因为各国为抗击疫情已经实施了旅行限制，全球航空旅行已经停止了。波音的股价最终从2019年12月31日的323.83美元下跌到了2020年12月31日的214.06美元，下跌了34%。但其股价后来从3月份的低点又大幅上涨了125%。具体来说，波音的股价在2020年11月和12月出现了强劲反弹，原因是有关取消737 MAX停飞和疫苗接种的利好消息。2020年11月18日，美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)取消了对737 MAX的停飞令。另外，世界卫生组织在2020年12月指出，“第一次大规模疫苗接种计划”已经开始。2021年，波音的股价继续在回升。今年以来，波音股价上涨了7%，从2020年12月31日的214.06美元上涨到了2021年5月5日的228.18美元。虽然可以有把握的说，波音最糟糕的时期已经过去，但复苏之路肯定不会一帆风顺。波音股价能否持续回升猛兽财经认为波音股价能否持续回升的关键在于其核心商用飞机业务部门能否及时减少亏损，并重新实现盈利。而波音商业飞机业务的未来前景反过来又受到737 MAX交付量和全球旅行恢复的影响。到目前为止波音商用飞机业务的营收已经同比下降了31%，从2020年第一季度的62亿美元下降到了2021年第一季度的43亿美元。这已经比在2020财年全年收入下降50%的情况下有所改善。另外商用飞机业务的部分运营亏损也从2020年第一季度的21亿美元减少到最近一季度的9亿美元。这一改善主要是由于美国联邦航空管理局在2020年11月取消了对737 MAX的停飞令后，737 MAX的交付恢复。截至2021年4月26日，波音已交付了超过85架的737MAX飞机。值得注意的是，波音也从美国的一些其他航空公司接到了737飞机的新订单。另一方面，737 MAX仍在等待在中国这个主要的航空市场落地。在2021年4月28日的2021年第一季度财报电话会议上，波音承认“我们仍在等待中国对737 MAX的监管批准”，“它的时间将影响我们的737交付计划”和“未来的生产率”。令问题进一步复杂化的是，中国能不能取消对737 MAX的停飞令不仅仅是一个安全问题，因为美中关系也可能是决定737 MAX何时获准在中国恢复服务的一个重要因素。更重要的是，737 MAX飞机本身还存在着很多问题。路透社在2021年4月29日报道，美国联邦航空管理局已要求波音公司“修复其部分737 MAX飞机电气系统的连接问题，这些问题可能会导致发动机擎保护措施失效和驾驶舱的关键功能失效。”路透社随后又在2021年5月5日发表了另一篇文章，强调要求波音向美国联邦航空管理局提供“最新的文件，用来证明737 MAX子系统不会受到电气连接问题的影响。”波音公司早前在2021年4月底就透露，约有“100架在用飞机受到了电气系统问题的影响”，这将导致“4月份的交付量很少”。换句话说，将737 MAX恢复到正常的交付水平可能要花费比预期更长的时间。另外，全球旅行的恢复是对波音核心商用飞机业务产生重大影响的另一个关键因素。国际航空运输协会5月4日的发布的最新消息显示，近期全球航空旅行前景黯淡。根据国际航空运输协会的数据，全球旅客飞行公里数仍约为疫情前的(即2019年3月)的三分之一。与国内旅游相比，国际旅行预计还需要更长的时间才能恢复。全球旅行数据和趋势资料来源:国际航空运输协会除此之外，还有其他更复杂的因素。据路透社报道，2021年4月，世卫组织指出，鉴于“接种疫苗是否能防止疫情传播的不确定性以及公平担忧”，它不支持恢复全球旅行。几天前，国际航空运输协会还警告说，旅行恢复“可能会因(高昂的)成本而受到危险的影响。”更重要的是，如下图所示，2019疫情在世界各地的遏制情况并不均衡。虽然美国每周确诊的病例显著下降，但在印度和拉丁美洲等地，确诊病例还在继续增加。世界各地的新冠肺炎确诊病例资料来源:国际航空运输协会简而言之，虽然波音的商用飞机业务最终肯定会复苏，但复苏的时间还非常不确定，主要原因还是我们上面说的那些复杂因素。对波音的财务预测波音在2021年第一季度业绩发布会上重申，“与国际航空运输协会和其他行业团体一致，我们预计2023年至2024年客运量将恢复到2019年的水平。波音还在财报电话会议上补充道，“商用飞机业务的复苏将使我们能够在2022年实现正现金流。”卖方分析师通常会与公司管理层在未来的财务预测上保持一致。根据S&P Capital IQ的数据，市场普遍认为，波音在2021财年和2022财年的营收将分别增长37%和12%，达到798亿美元和895亿美元。华尔街预计，波音的营收将在2023财年持平，2024财年将同比增长8%，达到960亿美元。作为参考，波音在2019财年的收入为766亿美元，在2020财年的销售额为1011亿美元。根据卖方分析师的普遍预期，波音还有望在2022财年实现盈利，运营现金流和自由现金流分别达到94亿美元和75亿美元。在2019财年和2020财年的过去两年里，波音的运营现金流和自由现金流均为负值，预计2021财年将保持不变。值得注意的是，波音2021年第一季度的运营现金流为- 34亿美元，较2020年第一季度的- 43亿美元有所改善。尽管如此，波音公司还是在2021第一季度财报电话会议上强调，“我们的现金流状况在很大程度上取决于能否获得剩余的737 MAX监管批准、商用飞机业务的复苏以及与客户就机群规划需求进行的持续讨论。在猛兽财经看来，目前市场对波音公司的财务预测还是有点过于乐观了。当前，疫情在全球部分地区再次抬头，国际旅行复苏速度低于预期。而且目前还不能确定的是，波音最新的电气系统问题是否还会导致737 MAX的交付进一步延迟。我们认为卖方分析师很有可能会考虑下调对波音未来几个季度的财务预测。在2021年应该买入波音股票吗？从长远来看，我们确实非常喜欢波音这种非常优秀的企业。更重要的是，在可预见的未来，空客和波音这种公司在商用飞机领域的双头垄断格局不太可能会受到任何公司的挑战，因为这个领域在规模和资金方面存在着巨大的进入壁垒。另一方面，波音的股票在短期内可能不那么有吸引力。理由就是我们前面说过的那些，目前市场对波音的财务预测还是太乐观了，而且市场对波音的估值高于与其竞争对手空客，以及更多的737 MAX飞机还在受到当前电气系统问题的影响，还有就是疫情需要比预期更长的时间才能得到有效控制等因素，促使我们得到这样的结论。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2911,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4265395,"commentId":"4265395","gmtCreate":1620516490928,"gmtModify":1680787657710,"authorId":3568885585448254,"author":{"id":3568885585448254,"idStr":"3568885585448254","authorId":3568885585448254,"name":"Yuyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6eeb186816d2dcbffddfa79e1b8f21","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":107667247,"objectIdStr":"107667247","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"好","text":"好","html":"好","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}