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2021-04-29

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Tianfeng Strategy: Holding shares for the holidays or holding currency for the holidays? How to look at May

税期影响下，4月不紧，5月会紧吗？货币政策到底什么取向？如何看待5月市场？继续交易通胀还是交易流动性？

Tianfeng Strategy: Holding shares for the holidays or holding currency for the holidays? How to look at May

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":109166265,"tweetId":"109166265","gmtCreate":1619674478157,"gmtModify":1704727808784,"author":{"id":3452208114302624,"idStr":"3452208114302624","authorId":3452208114302624,"authorIdStr":"3452208114302624","name":"又龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/184ee60ce0da03042b7cc51f0e88aaeb","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>gupiao</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>gupiao</body></html>","text":"gupiao","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109166265","repostId":2131999306,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2131999306","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619656646,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2131999306?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 08:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tianfeng Strategy: Holding shares for the holidays or holding currency for the holidays? How to look at May","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131999306","media":"智通财经网","summary":"税期影响下，4月不紧，5月会紧吗？货币政策到底什么取向？如何看待5月市场？继续交易通胀还是交易流动性？","content":"This article comes from the public account \"Fixed Income Binfa\", written by Tianfeng Total TeamMacro: Is the impact of the epidemic in India overestimated?At present, the epidemic situation in India has deteriorated sharply. In March, when new cases increased, India's manufacturing PMI has declined; As the epidemic intensifies, India's manufacturing industry may be under relative pressure.The market is worried that, as a link of the global industrial chain, the poor operation of India's manufacturing industry may aggravate the mismatch between supply and demand on a global scale and bring actual negative impacts to the global economy. But our view is that the market may have overestimated the impact of the out-of-control epidemic in India on the global economy.The first thing to be clear is that the Indian government does not have enough incentive to block the country again.India issued a nationwide blockade order at the end of March 2020, and the economy almost shut down in April. Under the pressure of economic stagnation and surging unemployment, the Indian government began to gradually relax production restrictions in some industries in late April. The first wave of the epidemic broke out in India in August, but at that time, the Indian government did not re-issue the blockade order, but further relaxed the blockade restrictions. India's economic problems have not been alleviated in 2021. The Indian government still faces the dilemma of economic growth and epidemic prevention and control, and does not have enough motivation to block the country again.Therefore, the intensity of subsequent lockdown measures in India is unlikely to rise to the level of April 2020, and is more likely to be close to the level of partial lockdown in June-August 2020. The industrial production and export situation of India at that time can be used as a reference variable to derive the subsequent impact.In industrial production,From June to August 2020, India's industrial production index fell by 11.4% year-on-year. Among them, industries whose production was greatly affected included labor-intensive industries such as wood, clothing, beverages, textiles, printing and reproduction, and furniture, as well as transportation equipment, electrical equipment, and machinery. Industries with high added value such as equipment;The industries with relatively normal production are pharmaceutical and chemical products, indicating that the Indian government has strong support for such industries.As for export trade,Industries with a relatively large proportion of India's exports can be divided into four categories: textiles and clothing, agricultural and animal husbandry products, mineral products, and chemicals (including raw materials). The export performance of these industries from June to August 2020 was relatively differentiated.Labor-intensive industrial products and agricultural and sideline products are greatly affected.The export proportion of shellac gum, plant materials for knitting, knitted crocheted clothing and other industries has dropped significantly;primary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>, mineral products and chemical raw materials are less affected,The export proportion of steel, cotton, grain, organic chemicals and other industries has increased significantly. Based on India's production and export data from June to August 2020, we believe that the epidemic in India will not cause a serious mismatch between supply and demand and will not have a significant negative impact on the global economy.Strategy: Holding shares for the holidays or holding currency for the holidays?After the ultimate structure, the current price-performance ratio of small and medium-sized market capitalization has indeed improved:1) At the market value level, the valuation ratio of large and small caps is at a historically high level. 2) At the trading level, the trading congestion measured by the proportion of head trading volume is at the highest level since 2005. 3) After experiencing financial deleveraging, trade wars, COVID-19 and other impacts, small and medium-sized market capitalizations are flexible during the profit recovery stage. 4) The financial supervision + registration system digests the shell premium of small market capitalization stocks, which has now returned to the level before 13 years of speculation. 5) The concentration of dominant incremental capital holdings has declined, and the sinking of market value has been further accepted by the market.But small and medium-sized cost performance does not mean a complete reversal of style:1) Stable profitability and the ability to withstand macro and industrial cycle fluctuations are still the moat of large enterprises; The probability of bull stocks in small and medium-sized market capitalization is still low. 2) The increase in the internal concentration of institutional funds and the increase in the number of \"big funds\" will also promote the trend of increasing the market value center of holdings.Summary of the experience of \"counterattacking\" small and medium-sized stocks since 2019:In the past two years, more than 40% of individual stocks in the bull market have experienced negative gains, and the structural characteristics of the market are obvious. Compared with small-cap stocks, large-cap stocks have achieved obvious excess returns, but some small and medium-sized market capitalizations stand out.Experience 1: Buying small and medium-sized enterprises requires a top-down perspective, and the industry concentration of counterattacking individual stocks is very high.Among the top 99 stocks with gains, the six major industries (electronics + chemical industry + medicine + electrical equipment + machinery + food) accounted for more than 70%. Compared with leaders, small and medium-sized enterprises are more obviously affected by the size of the industry and their profit cycle.Experience 2: Although there are other driving forces, they are still generally positively correlated with industry profitability.The improvement of industry-level profitability has a significant positive correlation with the performance of small and medium-sized market capitalization in the industry. In addition, in the past two years, food, electronics and military industries have obviously enjoyed valuation premiums beyond profits; The performance of small and medium-sized market capitalization of media and communications failed to reflect the improvement of industry prosperity.Experience 3: When buying small and medium-sized enterprises, it is best not to choose industries whose concentration increases too fast.If the industry concentration has not changed much or even declined, either the industry is in the growth stage and the market is expanding (mainly growth category); Either although the industry is in a mature stage, the overall supply and demand pattern has improved, and the bargaining power for upstream and downstream has increased (mainly cyclical).Experience 4: At the level of individual stocks, when the overall stock is not expensive, the short-to medium-term valuation is even more irrelevant.In fact, the absolute valuation level and valuation quantile of most companies with large increases at the end of 2018 were higher than those of their industries.Experience 5: Valuation differentiation is the result, not the cause, and there is also a head premium within small and medium-sized market capitalization.Looking back afterwards, the small and medium-sized stocks with the highest gains in the past two years had no valuation advantage at the end of 18 years; On the contrary, it reached the high point of this bull market, and the valuation level was significantly opened. According to the degree of improvement in the prosperity of individual stocks, in fact, there is also a \"head premium\" and extreme structure within the small and medium-sized market capitalization, that is, it gives high-quality stocks a very high valuation premium.Experience 6: Equity incentives and buybacks may improve the winning rate.Among the 20 small and medium-sized market capitalization companies with the largest increase, 16 have announced equity incentives or repurchases in the past two years, and 13 of them have repurchased shares for equity incentive cancellation, and the proportion is much higher than the full A level.Fixed income: How do you view the capital and bond market direction in May?In the fourth quarter of 2020, China's economic growth rate will stand above the potential growth rate, which is the most important prerequisite for the overall policy. Although the economic data in the first quarter of this year is not strong, it is not weak overall. It is unlikely that the economy may return below the potential growth rate at present and in the future. Therefore, there is no possibility of further relaxation of the overall policy space, which also means that there are constraints on the lower limit of interest rates.At the press conference in April, the central bank also continued to emphasize \"adhering to the concept of cross-cyclical design\", \"stability is the top priority, maintaining determination, cherishing normal monetary policy space\", and \"maintaining the global leading situation of macro policy\", so we judge The overall policy orientation is still stable and neutral, and there is still the possibility of collection from the top-level design of the corresponding monetary policy behavior. Even if it is maintained, it will be a tight balance at most.Since 2019, the central bank has cherished the normal monetary policy and monetary policy. Corresponding to specific behaviors, the central bank's continuous net liquidity injection generally does not exceed 3 months. The small and medium-sized bank incidents in 2019, the epidemic and the Yongmei incident in 2020 The same is true.Excluding the central bank's investment, we estimate that the funding gap of the banking system in May is probably higher than that of the same period last year, and it is also significantly stronger than the general seasonality. Therefore, the static consideration of funding is estimated to be tighter than that of April. Judging from the central bank's operation in April, when facing the peak tax period and the pressure of government bond supply in May, the fluctuation of funding interest rates may still increase.We still emphasize that the left side or inflection point of this year's macro perspective may not be significant. The central bank's behavior orientation is to receive rather than release. This premise undoubtedly constitutes a major obstacle to grasping the market rhythm. The unclear inflection point corresponds to a complex market environment. In the market environment, it is still recommended to conduct market operations according to the safety margin of coupons, without hurry or impatience.Financial Engineering: Upper Edge of Shock, Risk Event Window PeriodThe timing system signal shows that the moving average distance has changed slightly from-1.76% in the previous period to-1.96%, and the market continues to fluctuate. The most concerned variable in the short term is the change of short-term sentiment in the market. Entering the vacuum period of macro data release, the risk score of the market is low, and the rebound is expected to continue; In terms of price and volume, the weekly trading volume of the market has decreased, and the market risk appetite may rise for a short time; The main conclusion of the industry model is that the medium-term perspective continues to recommend the upstream cycle; The long-term prosperity model still points to new energy sources for power equipment. From a short-term perspective, the consumer services and commerce sectors deserve attention.From the perspective of timing system, the distance between wind all A long-term moving average (120 days) and short-term moving average (20 days), which we define to distinguish the overall market environment, remains flat, with the 20-day line closing at 5286 points and the 120-day line closing at 5360 points. The short-term moving average continues to be below the long-term moving average. The distance between the two lines changes slightly from-1.96% in the previous period to-1.38%, and the moving average distance is lower than the threshold of 3%.Under our timing system, when the market enters a volatile pattern, the variable that our system is most concerned about in the short term is the change of short-term market sentiment. Looking forward to next week, the market will face the test of multiple macro events. Next Thursday, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting and release PMI data on Friday. Facing uncertainty, market risk appetite may be suppressed; In terms of price and volume, at present, it has entered the upper edge of the shock, and the weekly trading volume of the market has reached a new high in the past month. Under the premise of shock trend, the probability of market risk appetite continuing to rise sharply is low; In terms of time, we will face the May Day holiday after next week, and the uncertainty of the external market will also suppress the risk appetite of the A-share market. Comprehensive scoring shows that it is advisable for the market to be cautious next week.According to the two-beta style selection model of Tianfeng quantification, the current interest rate is in the downward stage defined by us, and the economy has entered the upward stage defined by us. The medium-term perspective continues to recommend the middle and upper reaches of the cycle; Looking forward to the prosperity of the industry in 2021, judging from the ranking of profit growth relative to the industry itself in the past 10 years, the top industries are power equipment and semiconductors, both of which are better years in the past ten years; In the short term, food, beverage and automobiles show signs of capital inflow; Comprehensive time window, we focus on recommending new energy of power equipment, upstream cycle, food and beverage and automobiles.Bank: What do you think of the first quarterly report of China Merchants Bank?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a>Disclosure of results for the first quarter of 2021: revenue of 84.751 billion yuan, +10.64% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 32.015 billion yuan, +15.18% year-on-year, and the annualized weighted average ROE was 19.54%, a year-on-year increase of 0.78 percentage points. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, the asset scale was 8.66 trillion yuan, and the non-performing loan ratio was 1.02%.Net profit growth rebounded sharplyRevenue growth picked up. 1Q21 revenue increased by 10.64% year-on-year, an increase of 2.94 pct from 7.7% at the end of 2020. Earnings growth has rebounded sharply. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 1Q21 increased by 15.18% year-on-year, and the profit growth rate increased significantly by 10.36 pct compared with the end of 2020, mainly due to the contribution of scale growth, mid-term revenue and provision feedback. Profit before provision increased by 9.25% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.48 pct compared with the end of 2020.Excellent asset structure, net interest margin improved significantly month-on-monthThe expansion of loan scale accelerated. The deposit growth rate in 1Q21 was 12.84%, supporting the rapid expansion of assets. At the end of March, the asset scale reached 8.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 11.6%. 1Q21 asset-side loans accounted for 61.3% of total assets, maintaining a high level; Liability-side deposits accounted for 73.7% of total liabilities, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points, and the dependence on interbank certificates of deposit decreased.The net interest margin increased significantly month-on-month. The net interest margin in 1Q21 was 2.52%, an increase of 11BP compared with 20Q4. Benefiting from the decline in the cost ratio of deposits driven by the increase in the proportion of demand deposits, and the increase in the yield of interest-earning assets brought about by the increase in the proportion of high-yield assets. However, affected by the cumulative effect of multiple LPR reductions in 2020, the net interest margin in 1Q21 fell by 4BP year-on-year. Although the monetary policy in 21 years has returned to neutrality, considering that the central bank has sorted out Internet deposits, slowed down the pressure of deposit competition, and the debt cost may be stable, it is expected that the net interest margin level in 21 years will remain stable year-on-year.Asset quality remains excellent and capital pressure is lowThe quality of assets gradually got rid of the impact of the epidemic. The group's 1Q21 non-performing ratio was 1.02%, a decrease of 5bp month-on-month. The provision coverage ratio increased by 1.2 pct month-on-month to 438.88%, which is at a high level. The non-performing loan ratio/attention rate/overdue rate of China Merchants Bank's parent company in 1Q21 was 1.04%/0.73%/1.11%, a decrease of 5/6/5BP respectively from the end of 2020.The company's AUM scale has grown steadily. At the end of the first quarter of 2021, the retail AUM scale reached 9.59 trillion yuan, covering 161 million retail customers, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.3% and 1.9% respectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVTB\">Private Banking</a>106,887 customers, an increase of 6.91% as compared with the end of the previous year; The total assets of private banking customers under management were 2.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.55% over the end of the previous year; The average total assets per household were 27.92 million yuan, an increase of 164,700 yuan from the end of the previous year.Non-Bank: AIA's core advantages are strengtheningAIA Life creates a differentiated content platform through \"customized products + high-quality health care services + professional agents\"The number of critical illness insurance policies in my country has exceeded 300 million, and the domestic critical illness insurance market has completed a leap from 0 to 1. On the demand side, the era of consumer insurance awareness awakening and independent purchase is coming, while on the supply side, the homogeneity of products themselves and promotion models still exists. Critical illness insurance has transitioned to the era of \"from 1 to many\". We believe that the three key points to win are professional consulting services, customized products, and differentiated services.Based on this, AIA Life launched the modular customized series of critical illness \"Youruyi\", which realized the flexible customization of exclusive protection plans for different customer groups through the combination of \"core protection + personalized configuration\", and launched critical illness products for high-end customers \"Ruyi\". In addition to the core protection of severe illness, customers can freely choose whether to attach other responsibilities and the amount of compensation, including:① For mild and moderate cases, you can choose the compensation ratios of 10%/20%/30% and 20%/40%/60% respectively, and the number of compensations can reach 5 times respectively; ② Multiple compensation for severe and malignant tumors, and the compensation amount can be set by yourself; ③ Other additional insurances (medical insurance, life insurance, accident insurance, etc.). At the same time, it is equipped with the Health Friends Bank Insurance Increment Plan (the critical illness insurance amount can be increased by up to 50%) and Yu Congrong critical illness project management. In addition, AIA has also launched critical illness products for high-end customers, focusing on the risk of income loss that high-net-worth individuals are most worried about. It only includes critical illness liability, and the insurance amount free of medical examination is as high as 2 million, making it more convenient to apply for high-value insurance. We expect this product will become a new increase.At the same time, enrich the value-added services supporting products, and promote sales through services. AIA's Healthy Friendship + More Calm has been upgraded with the new \"Friendship\" series of products. \"Healthy Friends Travel\" has added the \"Everyday Upward\" insurance amount increase plan. If you achieve your sports goal, you can increase the additional protection insurance premium by up to 50%. The critical illness project management service \"Ruyi Yu Leisurely\" provides health consultation, expert outpatient clinic, expert hospitalization, expert surgery, postoperative guidance and other services for the whole diagnosis and treatment of critical illnesses. And added: \"Calm Nutrition\" service to provide customized nutrition guidance for insured persons with malignant tumors; The \"Calm and Smart Diagnosis\" service provides comprehensive disease solutions for new insured children diagnosed with malignant tumors.For high-net-worth critical illness insurance customers, AIA launched the \"Pass on from Generation to Generation\" service, upgrading the critical illness project management service, and extending the service cycle from the original 180 days to one calendar year. After the customer is diagnosed with severe illness, the \"More Calm\" service will arrange 3 expert outpatient visits and multidisciplinary consultation services at home and abroad for the customer. The more calm service is provided by AIA Life's self-built professional medical team, and the response speed and service quality of customers seeking services are higher. In addition, we judge that if we promote it through phased plans (for example, extending the service to the families of critical illness insurance customers), the driving force of the service to product sales will be improved.\"Youruyi\" is a new product series launched by AIA Life Insurance based on the multi-level protection needs of customers, the professionalism of the sales team and the need to expand non-first-line markets. We once again reiterate the significance of this series of products. We believe that 1) the \"Youruyi\" product series has jumped out of the homogeneous competition of insurance products, making it difficult to compare prices of products, and focusing more on customer needs and on-demand combination configurations. 2) Solving the problem of \"complete and expensive\" original products through the core guarantee of relatively low prices will help expand the customer coverage group, including young customers born in 1985s and middle-class families in non-first-tier cities. 3) Product strategies are difficult to copy. The combination of various products needs to rely on the professional ability of agents, especially the ability to gain insight into customer needs and in-depth understanding of products. It is difficult for agents of other companies to control such product strategies as a whole.2. AIA Sichuan Branch officially opened on April 22, opening the way to expand the mainland marketIn November 2020, AIA Life began to prepare for the establishment of the Sichuan branch. It has taken half a year to the official opening of the Sichuan branch. Chengdu, located in the center of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, has become an important focus of AIA Life in inland areas, and will gradually expand from Chengdu to the next-level city in the future. We judge that the next expansion area of AIA Life Insurance will be places with better economic vitality and abundant talent supply.According to beijing business today, after the application for Sichuan branch was approved, AIA also submitted another application for provincial branch. Referring to the opening process of Sichuan Branch, we expect that AIA Life will expand at the rate of opening two branches every year in the future, and at the same time expand to the next-level cities in the existing branch areas. The new branches may form the driving force for NBV growth in the next 3-5 years.Risk warningRisk warning: the economic environment deteriorates, the transmission of monetary policy is not smooth, policy adjustments exceed expectations, and overseas epidemics exceed expectations","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Strategy: Holding shares for the holidays or holding currency for the holidays? 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How to look at May\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n智通财经网2021-04-29 08:37\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis article comes from the public account \"Fixed Income Binfa\", written by Tianfeng Total TeamMacro: Is the impact of the epidemic in India overestimated?At present, the epidemic situation in India has deteriorated sharply. In March, when new cases increased, India's manufacturing PMI has declined; As the epidemic intensifies, India's manufacturing industry may be under relative pressure.The market is worried that, as a link of the global industrial chain, the poor operation of India's manufacturing industry may aggravate the mismatch between supply and demand on a global scale and bring actual negative impacts to the global economy. But our view is that the market may have overestimated the impact of the out-of-control epidemic in India on the global economy.The first thing to be clear is that the Indian government does not have enough incentive to block the country again.India issued a nationwide blockade order at the end of March 2020, and the economy almost shut down in April. Under the pressure of economic stagnation and surging unemployment, the Indian government began to gradually relax production restrictions in some industries in late April. The first wave of the epidemic broke out in India in August, but at that time, the Indian government did not re-issue the blockade order, but further relaxed the blockade restrictions. India's economic problems have not been alleviated in 2021. The Indian government still faces the dilemma of economic growth and epidemic prevention and control, and does not have enough motivation to block the country again.Therefore, the intensity of subsequent lockdown measures in India is unlikely to rise to the level of April 2020, and is more likely to be close to the level of partial lockdown in June-August 2020. The industrial production and export situation of India at that time can be used as a reference variable to derive the subsequent impact.In industrial production,From June to August 2020, India's industrial production index fell by 11.4% year-on-year. Among them, industries whose production was greatly affected included labor-intensive industries such as wood, clothing, beverages, textiles, printing and reproduction, and furniture, as well as transportation equipment, electrical equipment, and machinery. Industries with high added value such as equipment;The industries with relatively normal production are pharmaceutical and chemical products, indicating that the Indian government has strong support for such industries.As for export trade,Industries with a relatively large proportion of India's exports can be divided into four categories: textiles and clothing, agricultural and animal husbandry products, mineral products, and chemicals (including raw materials). The export performance of these industries from June to August 2020 was relatively differentiated.Labor-intensive industrial products and agricultural and sideline products are greatly affected.The export proportion of shellac gum, plant materials for knitting, knitted crocheted clothing and other industries has dropped significantly;primary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>, mineral products and chemical raw materials are less affected,The export proportion of steel, cotton, grain, organic chemicals and other industries has increased significantly. Based on India's production and export data from June to August 2020, we believe that the epidemic in India will not cause a serious mismatch between supply and demand and will not have a significant negative impact on the global economy.Strategy: Holding shares for the holidays or holding currency for the holidays?After the ultimate structure, the current price-performance ratio of small and medium-sized market capitalization has indeed improved:1) At the market value level, the valuation ratio of large and small caps is at a historically high level. 2) At the trading level, the trading congestion measured by the proportion of head trading volume is at the highest level since 2005. 3) After experiencing financial deleveraging, trade wars, COVID-19 and other impacts, small and medium-sized market capitalizations are flexible during the profit recovery stage. 4) The financial supervision + registration system digests the shell premium of small market capitalization stocks, which has now returned to the level before 13 years of speculation. 5) The concentration of dominant incremental capital holdings has declined, and the sinking of market value has been further accepted by the market.But small and medium-sized cost performance does not mean a complete reversal of style:1) Stable profitability and the ability to withstand macro and industrial cycle fluctuations are still the moat of large enterprises; The probability of bull stocks in small and medium-sized market capitalization is still low. 2) The increase in the internal concentration of institutional funds and the increase in the number of \"big funds\" will also promote the trend of increasing the market value center of holdings.Summary of the experience of \"counterattacking\" small and medium-sized stocks since 2019:In the past two years, more than 40% of individual stocks in the bull market have experienced negative gains, and the structural characteristics of the market are obvious. Compared with small-cap stocks, large-cap stocks have achieved obvious excess returns, but some small and medium-sized market capitalizations stand out.Experience 1: Buying small and medium-sized enterprises requires a top-down perspective, and the industry concentration of counterattacking individual stocks is very high.Among the top 99 stocks with gains, the six major industries (electronics + chemical industry + medicine + electrical equipment + machinery + food) accounted for more than 70%. Compared with leaders, small and medium-sized enterprises are more obviously affected by the size of the industry and their profit cycle.Experience 2: Although there are other driving forces, they are still generally positively correlated with industry profitability.The improvement of industry-level profitability has a significant positive correlation with the performance of small and medium-sized market capitalization in the industry. In addition, in the past two years, food, electronics and military industries have obviously enjoyed valuation premiums beyond profits; The performance of small and medium-sized market capitalization of media and communications failed to reflect the improvement of industry prosperity.Experience 3: When buying small and medium-sized enterprises, it is best not to choose industries whose concentration increases too fast.If the industry concentration has not changed much or even declined, either the industry is in the growth stage and the market is expanding (mainly growth category); Either although the industry is in a mature stage, the overall supply and demand pattern has improved, and the bargaining power for upstream and downstream has increased (mainly cyclical).Experience 4: At the level of individual stocks, when the overall stock is not expensive, the short-to medium-term valuation is even more irrelevant.In fact, the absolute valuation level and valuation quantile of most companies with large increases at the end of 2018 were higher than those of their industries.Experience 5: Valuation differentiation is the result, not the cause, and there is also a head premium within small and medium-sized market capitalization.Looking back afterwards, the small and medium-sized stocks with the highest gains in the past two years had no valuation advantage at the end of 18 years; On the contrary, it reached the high point of this bull market, and the valuation level was significantly opened. According to the degree of improvement in the prosperity of individual stocks, in fact, there is also a \"head premium\" and extreme structure within the small and medium-sized market capitalization, that is, it gives high-quality stocks a very high valuation premium.Experience 6: Equity incentives and buybacks may improve the winning rate.Among the 20 small and medium-sized market capitalization companies with the largest increase, 16 have announced equity incentives or repurchases in the past two years, and 13 of them have repurchased shares for equity incentive cancellation, and the proportion is much higher than the full A level.Fixed income: How do you view the capital and bond market direction in May?In the fourth quarter of 2020, China's economic growth rate will stand above the potential growth rate, which is the most important prerequisite for the overall policy. Although the economic data in the first quarter of this year is not strong, it is not weak overall. It is unlikely that the economy may return below the potential growth rate at present and in the future. Therefore, there is no possibility of further relaxation of the overall policy space, which also means that there are constraints on the lower limit of interest rates.At the press conference in April, the central bank also continued to emphasize \"adhering to the concept of cross-cyclical design\", \"stability is the top priority, maintaining determination, cherishing normal monetary policy space\", and \"maintaining the global leading situation of macro policy\", so we judge The overall policy orientation is still stable and neutral, and there is still the possibility of collection from the top-level design of the corresponding monetary policy behavior. Even if it is maintained, it will be a tight balance at most.Since 2019, the central bank has cherished the normal monetary policy and monetary policy. Corresponding to specific behaviors, the central bank's continuous net liquidity injection generally does not exceed 3 months. The small and medium-sized bank incidents in 2019, the epidemic and the Yongmei incident in 2020 The same is true.Excluding the central bank's investment, we estimate that the funding gap of the banking system in May is probably higher than that of the same period last year, and it is also significantly stronger than the general seasonality. Therefore, the static consideration of funding is estimated to be tighter than that of April. Judging from the central bank's operation in April, when facing the peak tax period and the pressure of government bond supply in May, the fluctuation of funding interest rates may still increase.We still emphasize that the left side or inflection point of this year's macro perspective may not be significant. The central bank's behavior orientation is to receive rather than release. This premise undoubtedly constitutes a major obstacle to grasping the market rhythm. The unclear inflection point corresponds to a complex market environment. In the market environment, it is still recommended to conduct market operations according to the safety margin of coupons, without hurry or impatience.Financial Engineering: Upper Edge of Shock, Risk Event Window PeriodThe timing system signal shows that the moving average distance has changed slightly from-1.76% in the previous period to-1.96%, and the market continues to fluctuate. The most concerned variable in the short term is the change of short-term sentiment in the market. Entering the vacuum period of macro data release, the risk score of the market is low, and the rebound is expected to continue; In terms of price and volume, the weekly trading volume of the market has decreased, and the market risk appetite may rise for a short time; The main conclusion of the industry model is that the medium-term perspective continues to recommend the upstream cycle; The long-term prosperity model still points to new energy sources for power equipment. From a short-term perspective, the consumer services and commerce sectors deserve attention.From the perspective of timing system, the distance between wind all A long-term moving average (120 days) and short-term moving average (20 days), which we define to distinguish the overall market environment, remains flat, with the 20-day line closing at 5286 points and the 120-day line closing at 5360 points. The short-term moving average continues to be below the long-term moving average. The distance between the two lines changes slightly from-1.96% in the previous period to-1.38%, and the moving average distance is lower than the threshold of 3%.Under our timing system, when the market enters a volatile pattern, the variable that our system is most concerned about in the short term is the change of short-term market sentiment. Looking forward to next week, the market will face the test of multiple macro events. Next Thursday, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting and release PMI data on Friday. Facing uncertainty, market risk appetite may be suppressed; In terms of price and volume, at present, it has entered the upper edge of the shock, and the weekly trading volume of the market has reached a new high in the past month. Under the premise of shock trend, the probability of market risk appetite continuing to rise sharply is low; In terms of time, we will face the May Day holiday after next week, and the uncertainty of the external market will also suppress the risk appetite of the A-share market. Comprehensive scoring shows that it is advisable for the market to be cautious next week.According to the two-beta style selection model of Tianfeng quantification, the current interest rate is in the downward stage defined by us, and the economy has entered the upward stage defined by us. The medium-term perspective continues to recommend the middle and upper reaches of the cycle; Looking forward to the prosperity of the industry in 2021, judging from the ranking of profit growth relative to the industry itself in the past 10 years, the top industries are power equipment and semiconductors, both of which are better years in the past ten years; In the short term, food, beverage and automobiles show signs of capital inflow; Comprehensive time window, we focus on recommending new energy of power equipment, upstream cycle, food and beverage and automobiles.Bank: What do you think of the first quarterly report of China Merchants Bank?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a>Disclosure of results for the first quarter of 2021: revenue of 84.751 billion yuan, +10.64% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 32.015 billion yuan, +15.18% year-on-year, and the annualized weighted average ROE was 19.54%, a year-on-year increase of 0.78 percentage points. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, the asset scale was 8.66 trillion yuan, and the non-performing loan ratio was 1.02%.Net profit growth rebounded sharplyRevenue growth picked up. 1Q21 revenue increased by 10.64% year-on-year, an increase of 2.94 pct from 7.7% at the end of 2020. Earnings growth has rebounded sharply. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 1Q21 increased by 15.18% year-on-year, and the profit growth rate increased significantly by 10.36 pct compared with the end of 2020, mainly due to the contribution of scale growth, mid-term revenue and provision feedback. Profit before provision increased by 9.25% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.48 pct compared with the end of 2020.Excellent asset structure, net interest margin improved significantly month-on-monthThe expansion of loan scale accelerated. The deposit growth rate in 1Q21 was 12.84%, supporting the rapid expansion of assets. At the end of March, the asset scale reached 8.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 11.6%. 1Q21 asset-side loans accounted for 61.3% of total assets, maintaining a high level; Liability-side deposits accounted for 73.7% of total liabilities, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points, and the dependence on interbank certificates of deposit decreased.The net interest margin increased significantly month-on-month. The net interest margin in 1Q21 was 2.52%, an increase of 11BP compared with 20Q4. Benefiting from the decline in the cost ratio of deposits driven by the increase in the proportion of demand deposits, and the increase in the yield of interest-earning assets brought about by the increase in the proportion of high-yield assets. However, affected by the cumulative effect of multiple LPR reductions in 2020, the net interest margin in 1Q21 fell by 4BP year-on-year. Although the monetary policy in 21 years has returned to neutrality, considering that the central bank has sorted out Internet deposits, slowed down the pressure of deposit competition, and the debt cost may be stable, it is expected that the net interest margin level in 21 years will remain stable year-on-year.Asset quality remains excellent and capital pressure is lowThe quality of assets gradually got rid of the impact of the epidemic. The group's 1Q21 non-performing ratio was 1.02%, a decrease of 5bp month-on-month. The provision coverage ratio increased by 1.2 pct month-on-month to 438.88%, which is at a high level. The non-performing loan ratio/attention rate/overdue rate of China Merchants Bank's parent company in 1Q21 was 1.04%/0.73%/1.11%, a decrease of 5/6/5BP respectively from the end of 2020.The company's AUM scale has grown steadily. At the end of the first quarter of 2021, the retail AUM scale reached 9.59 trillion yuan, covering 161 million retail customers, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.3% and 1.9% respectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVTB\">Private Banking</a>106,887 customers, an increase of 6.91% as compared with the end of the previous year; The total assets of private banking customers under management were 2.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.55% over the end of the previous year; The average total assets per household were 27.92 million yuan, an increase of 164,700 yuan from the end of the previous year.Non-Bank: AIA's core advantages are strengtheningAIA Life creates a differentiated content platform through \"customized products + high-quality health care services + professional agents\"The number of critical illness insurance policies in my country has exceeded 300 million, and the domestic critical illness insurance market has completed a leap from 0 to 1. On the demand side, the era of consumer insurance awareness awakening and independent purchase is coming, while on the supply side, the homogeneity of products themselves and promotion models still exists. Critical illness insurance has transitioned to the era of \"from 1 to many\". We believe that the three key points to win are professional consulting services, customized products, and differentiated services.Based on this, AIA Life launched the modular customized series of critical illness \"Youruyi\", which realized the flexible customization of exclusive protection plans for different customer groups through the combination of \"core protection + personalized configuration\", and launched critical illness products for high-end customers \"Ruyi\". In addition to the core protection of severe illness, customers can freely choose whether to attach other responsibilities and the amount of compensation, including:① For mild and moderate cases, you can choose the compensation ratios of 10%/20%/30% and 20%/40%/60% respectively, and the number of compensations can reach 5 times respectively; ② Multiple compensation for severe and malignant tumors, and the compensation amount can be set by yourself; ③ Other additional insurances (medical insurance, life insurance, accident insurance, etc.). At the same time, it is equipped with the Health Friends Bank Insurance Increment Plan (the critical illness insurance amount can be increased by up to 50%) and Yu Congrong critical illness project management. In addition, AIA has also launched critical illness products for high-end customers, focusing on the risk of income loss that high-net-worth individuals are most worried about. It only includes critical illness liability, and the insurance amount free of medical examination is as high as 2 million, making it more convenient to apply for high-value insurance. We expect this product will become a new increase.At the same time, enrich the value-added services supporting products, and promote sales through services. AIA's Healthy Friendship + More Calm has been upgraded with the new \"Friendship\" series of products. \"Healthy Friends Travel\" has added the \"Everyday Upward\" insurance amount increase plan. If you achieve your sports goal, you can increase the additional protection insurance premium by up to 50%. The critical illness project management service \"Ruyi Yu Leisurely\" provides health consultation, expert outpatient clinic, expert hospitalization, expert surgery, postoperative guidance and other services for the whole diagnosis and treatment of critical illnesses. And added: \"Calm Nutrition\" service to provide customized nutrition guidance for insured persons with malignant tumors; The \"Calm and Smart Diagnosis\" service provides comprehensive disease solutions for new insured children diagnosed with malignant tumors.For high-net-worth critical illness insurance customers, AIA launched the \"Pass on from Generation to Generation\" service, upgrading the critical illness project management service, and extending the service cycle from the original 180 days to one calendar year. After the customer is diagnosed with severe illness, the \"More Calm\" service will arrange 3 expert outpatient visits and multidisciplinary consultation services at home and abroad for the customer. The more calm service is provided by AIA Life's self-built professional medical team, and the response speed and service quality of customers seeking services are higher. In addition, we judge that if we promote it through phased plans (for example, extending the service to the families of critical illness insurance customers), the driving force of the service to product sales will be improved.\"Youruyi\" is a new product series launched by AIA Life Insurance based on the multi-level protection needs of customers, the professionalism of the sales team and the need to expand non-first-line markets. We once again reiterate the significance of this series of products. We believe that 1) the \"Youruyi\" product series has jumped out of the homogeneous competition of insurance products, making it difficult to compare prices of products, and focusing more on customer needs and on-demand combination configurations. 2) Solving the problem of \"complete and expensive\" original products through the core guarantee of relatively low prices will help expand the customer coverage group, including young customers born in 1985s and middle-class families in non-first-tier cities. 3) Product strategies are difficult to copy. The combination of various products needs to rely on the professional ability of agents, especially the ability to gain insight into customer needs and in-depth understanding of products. It is difficult for agents of other companies to control such product strategies as a whole.2. AIA Sichuan Branch officially opened on April 22, opening the way to expand the mainland marketIn November 2020, AIA Life began to prepare for the establishment of the Sichuan branch. It has taken half a year to the official opening of the Sichuan branch. Chengdu, located in the center of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, has become an important focus of AIA Life in inland areas, and will gradually expand from Chengdu to the next-level city in the future. We judge that the next expansion area of AIA Life Insurance will be places with better economic vitality and abundant talent supply.According to beijing business today, after the application for Sichuan branch was approved, AIA also submitted another application for provincial branch. Referring to the opening process of Sichuan Branch, we expect that AIA Life will expand at the rate of opening two branches every year in the future, and at the same time expand to the next-level cities in the existing branch areas. The new branches may form the driving force for NBV growth in the next 3-5 years.Risk warningRisk warning: the economic environment deteriorates, the transmission of monetary policy is not smooth, policy adjustments exceed expectations, and overseas epidemics exceed expectations\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463285.html\">智通财经网</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463285.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2131999306","content_text":"本文来自公众号“固收彬法”，作者天风总量团队宏观：是否高估了印度疫情的影响?目前印度疫情出现了急剧恶化。在新增病例出现增长的3月，印度的制造业PMI已经有所回落;随着疫情的愈演愈烈，印度制造业可能会相对承压。市场担心的问题是，作为全球产业链的一环，印度制造业的运转不畅可能会加剧全球范围内的供需错配，给全球经济带来实际的负面冲击。但我们的观点是，市场可能高估了印度疫情失控对全球经济的影响。首先要明确的一点是，印度政府没有足够动力再度封锁全国。2020年3月底印度发布了全国范围封锁令，4月经济几近停摆。在经济停滞和失业激增的压力之下，4月下旬印度政府开始逐渐放开了部分行业的生产限制。8月印度疫情出现第一波爆发，但当时印度政府没有重新下达封锁令，反而进一步放松了封锁限制。2021年印度的经济问题并未得到缓解，印度政府仍然面临经济增长和疫情防控的两难选择，没有足够动力再度封锁全国。因此，印度后续封锁措施的强度不太可能上升到2020年4月的水平，更可能接近2020年6-8月局部封锁的水平。当时印度的工业生产和出口情况可以作为推导后续影响的参考变量。工业生产方面，2020年6-8月印度工业生产指数同比下滑11.4%，其中生产受到较大影响的行业有木材、服装、饮料、纺织品、印刷复制、家具等劳动密集型行业，也有运输设备、电气设备、机械设备等附加值较高的行业;生产较为正常的行业是医药和化工产品，表明印度政府对这类行业支持力度较大。出口贸易方面，印度出口占比较大的行业可以分为纺织服装、农牧产品、矿产品、化工品(包含原料药)四大类。2020年6-8月这些行业的出口表现较为分化。劳动密集型的工业品、农副产品受影响较大，虫胶树胶、编结用植物材料、针织钩编服装等行业出口占比下滑明显;初级农产品、矿产品和化工原料药受影响小，钢铁、棉花、谷物、有机化学品等行业出口占比出现明显上升。综合2020年6-8月印度生产和出口两方面的数据，我们认为印度疫情并不会造成严重的供求错配，不会给全球经济带来显著的负面冲击。策略：持股过节还是持币过节?极致的结构性之后，当前中小市值性价比的确有所提升：1)市值层面，大小盘估值比处于历史高位。2)交易层面，以头部成交量占比衡量的交易拥挤度处于05年以来最高位。3)经历金融去杠杆、贸易战、新冠等冲击后，盈利修复阶段中小市值具备弹性。4)金融监管+注册制消化小市值个股壳溢价，当前已回到13年炒作之前水平。5)主导增量资金持股集中度有所下滑，市值下沉进一步被市场接受。但中小性价比不意味着风格的彻底逆转：1)稳定的盈利能力、抵御宏观和产业周期波动的能力仍然是大企业的护城河;中小市值出牛股的概率仍然是偏低的。2)机构资金内部集中度提升，“大基金”数量增加，也会推动持股的市值中枢趋势性提升。2019年以来“逆袭”中小个股经验总结：过去两年牛市中超40%个股涨幅为负，市场结构性特征明显，大盘股相对于小盘股取得明显超额收益，但也有一部分中小市值脱颖而出。经验一：买中小需要自上而下视角，逆袭个股行业集中度很高。涨幅top99个股中，(电子+化工+医药+电气设备+机械+食品)六大行业占比超过70%。相比于龙头，中小企业受行业体量、所处盈利周期的影响更加明显。经验二：虽然存在其他驱动力，但仍然大体与行业盈利正相关。行业层面盈利情况的改善与该行业中小市值表现有明显的正相关关系。在此之外，过去两年食品、电子、军工比较明显地享受了盈利之外的估值溢价;传媒和通信的中小市值表现则未能反映行业景气的改善。经验三：买中小，最好不选择集中度提升过快的行业。行业集中度变化不大甚至下滑，则要么是行业处在成长期，市场在扩容(主要是成长类);要么是行业虽然处于成熟期，但整体的供需格局改善，对上下游议价能力提高(主要是周期类)。经验四：个股层面，整体不贵的情况下，中短期估值更加无关紧要。事实上多数涨幅较大的公司在18年底的估值绝对水平和估值分位高于所在行业。经验五：估值分化是结果不是原因，中小市值内部同样有头部溢价。事后回溯来看，过去两年涨幅靠前的中小市值个股，在18年末并没有估值上的优势;反而到了这一波牛市高点，估值水平显著拉开。依据个股景气改善程度，实际上中小市值内部同样出现了“头部溢价”和极致的结构性，即赋予绩优个股相当高的估值溢价。经验六：股权激励和回购或能提高胜率。涨幅最大的20家中小市值中有16家在过去两年公告过股权激励或进行回购，其中13家回购股份用于股权激励注销，比重远高于全A水平。固收：如何看待5月资金面与债市方向?2020年四季度中国经济增速站上潜在增速，这是总体政策最重要的前提。今年一季度经济数据虽然不强，但总体也不弱，当前和未来一段时间经济可能再度回到潜在增速以下的概率不大。所以总体政策空间不存在进一步放松的可能，这也意味着利率下限存在约束。4月央行在新闻发布会中也继续强调“坚持跨周期设计理念”、“稳字当头，保持定力，珍惜正常的货币政策空间”、“保持好宏观政策的全球领先态势”，所以我们判断总体政策取向仍然是稳健中性，对应货币政策行为从顶层设计出发仍然存在收的可能，即使维持，最多也就是紧平衡。2019年以来，央行珍惜正常的货币政策和货币政策，对应在具体行为上，就是央行连续流动性净投放一般不会超过3个月，2019年的中小银行事件、疫情以及2020年永煤事件时也是如此。除去央行投放，我们预估5月银行体系资金缺口大概较去年同期有所提升，也明显强于一般季节性，因而静态考虑资金面估计较4月份有所收紧。结合4月央行操作来看，在5月面临税期高峰以及政府债券供给压力时，资金利率波动仍然可能会有所加大。我们还是强调今年宏观角度的左侧或者拐点可能并不显著，央行行为导向是收而不是放，这一前提对于把握市场节奏而言，无疑构成了重大障碍，并不清晰的拐点，对应着复杂的市场环境，还是建议按照票息的安全边际进行市场操作，不急不躁。金融工程：震荡上沿，风险事件窗口期择时体系信号显示，均线距离由上期的-1.76%小幅变化至-1.96%，市场继续处于震荡。短期最为关注的变量是市场短期情绪的变化，进入宏观数据发布的真空期，市场的风险打分较低，反弹有望延续;价量方面，市场周成交量有所降低，市场风险偏好有短暂抬升可能;行业模型主要结论，中期角度继续推荐周期上游;长期景气度模型依然指向电力设备新能源，短期角度，消费者服务与商贸板块值得关注。从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的wind 全A 长期均线(120 日)和短期均线(20 日)的距离保持持平，20 日线收于5286 点，120 日线收于5360，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下，两线距离由上期的-1.96%小幅变化至-1.38%，均线距离低于3%的阈值，市场继续处于震荡。在我们的择时体系下，当市场进入震荡格局，我们体系短期最为关注的变量是市场短期情绪的变化。展望下周，市场将面临多重宏观事件考验，下周四美联储议息会议，周五将发布PMI 数据，面临不确定性市场风险偏好或将有所抑制;价量方面，目前进入震荡上沿位置，市场周成交量创下近一月新高，在震荡走势的前提下，市场风险偏好继续大幅抬升概率较低;时间维度，下周过后将面临五一小长假，外围市场的不确定性也将对A股市场的风险偏好形成压制。综合打分显示，下周市场谨慎为宜。风格与行业模型主要结论，根据天风量化 two -beta 风格选择模型，当前利率处于我们定义的下行阶段，经济进入我们定义的上行阶段，中期角度继续推荐周期中上游;展望2021 年行业景气度的情况，利润增速相对行业自身过去10 年的排序来看，靠前的行业为电力设备以及半导体，均为过去十年中较优的年份;短期角度，食品饮料与汽车有资金流入迹象;综合时间窗口，重点推荐电力设备新能源、周期上游以及食品饮料与汽车。银行：怎么看招行一季报?招商银行披露2021年一季度业绩：营收847.51亿元，同比 +10.64%;归母净利润320.15亿元，同比 +15.18%，年化加权平均ROE为19.54%，同比上升0.78个百分点。截至2021年一季度末，资产规模8.66万亿元，不良贷款率1.02%。净利润增速大幅回升营收增速回升。1Q21营收同比增长10.64%，较2020年末的7.7%提高2.94pct。盈利增速大幅回升。1Q21归母净利润同比增长15.18%，利润增速较2020年末大幅上升10.36pct，主要是规模增长、中收及拨备反哺贡献。拨备前利润同比增长9.25%，增速较2020年末上升3.48pct。资产结构优秀，净息差环比改善大贷款规模扩张提速。1Q21存款增速为12.84%，支撑资产较快扩张，3月末资产规模达8.66万亿元，同比增速达11.6%。1Q21资产端贷款占总资产比例达61.3%，保持较高水平;负债端存款占总负债比例达73.7%，同比上升1.2个百分点，对同业存单依赖降低。净息差环比升幅大。1Q21净息差为 2.52%，较20Q4提高11BP。受益于活期存款占比提升推动的存款成本率下降，以及高收益资产占比提升带来的生息资产收益率提升。但受2020年LPR多次下调的累计效应影响，1Q21净息差同比下降4BP。21年货币政策虽回归中性，但考虑到央行整理互联网存款，减缓存款竞争压力，负债成本或平稳，预计21年净息差水平同比维持平稳。资产质量保持优异，资本压力小资产质量逐步摆脱疫情影响。集团1Q21不良率为 1.02%，环比降5bp。拨备覆盖率环比上升1.2pct到438.88%，处于高位。招行母公司1Q21贷款不良率/关注率/逾期率为1.04%/0.73%/1.11%，较2020年末分别下降5/6/5BP。公司的 AUM 规模稳步增长。2021年一季度末零售 AUM 规模高达 9.59万亿元，覆盖零售客户1.61 亿户，环比分别增长7.3%和1.9%。私人银行客户106,887户，较上年末增长6.91%;管理的私人银行客户总资产2.98万亿元，较上年末增长7.55%;户均总资产2792万元，较上年末增加16.47万元。非银：友邦核心优势在加固一、友邦人寿通过“定制化的产品+优质的健康医疗服务+专业代理人”，打造差异化的内容平台我国重疾险保单数量已超3亿张，国内重疾险市场已经完成了“从0到1”的跨越。在需求端消费者保险意识觉醒和自主购买的时代来临，而在供给端，产品本身及推广模式的同质化依然存在，重疾险已过渡到“从1到多”的时代，我们认为，制胜三个关键点是专业化的咨询服务、定制化产品、差异化服务。基于此，友邦人寿推出模块定制化重疾系列“友如意”，通过“核心保障+个性化配置”组合形式，实现不同客群的专属保障方案的灵活定制，并推出针对高端客户的重疾产品“传世如意”。在重症的核心保障之外，客户可自由选择是否附加其他责任以及赔付额度，包括：①轻症、中症分别可选10%/20%/30%、20%/40%/60%的赔付比例，赔付次数可分别达到5次;②重症及恶性肿瘤多次赔付，赔付额度可自行设置;③其他的附加险(医疗险、定寿、意外险等)。同时搭配了健康友行保额递增计划(重疾保额最高可增加50% )和愈从容重疾专案管理。此外，友邦还推出针对高端客户的重疾产品，聚焦高净值人士最为担忧的收入损失风险，仅含重疾责任，免体检保额高达200万，让高额投保更加便捷，我们预计这一产品将成为新增量。同时丰富产品配套的增值服务，以服务促销售。友邦的健康友行+愈从容配合“友如意”系列新产品而升级。“健康友行”新增“天天向上”保额递增计划，达成运动目标，最高可增加50% 额外保障保险金。“如意愈从容”重疾专案管理服务，提供健康咨询、专家门诊、专家住院、专家手术、术后指导等重疾全诊疗过程服务。并且新增：“从容营养”服务，为恶性肿瘤的被保险人提供定制化营养指导;“从容慧诊”服务，为确诊恶性肿瘤的儿童新单被保险人协助提供疾病综合解决方案。针对高净值重疾险客户，友邦推出“传世愈从容”服务，重疾专案管理服务升级，将服务周期由原先的180天延长至1个自然年度。客户在确诊重症后，“传世愈从容”服务将为客户安排3次专家门诊、国内外多学科咨询服务。愈从容服务由友邦人寿自建的专业医疗团队提供，客户寻求服务的响应速度和服务质量更高。另外，我们判断如通过阶段性的方案推动(比如，将服务扩展至重疾险客户的家人)将提高服务对于产品销售的拉动力。“友如意”是友邦人寿基于客户多层次的保障需求、销售队伍的专业化程度、拓展非一线市场的需求推出的新产品系列，我们再次重申这一系列产品的重要意义。我们认为，1)“友如意”产品系列跳出了保险产品同质化竞争，产品难以比价，更加聚焦客户需求和按需组合配置。2)通过相对较低价格的核心保障解决原来产品“全而贵”的问题，有助于扩大客户覆盖群体，包括85后年轻客户、非一线城市的中产家庭等。3)产品策略难以被复制，繁多的产品的组合需要依托代理人的专业能力，特别是对客户需求的洞悉能力及对产品的深入理解，其他公司代理人整体较难驾驭这样的产品策略。二、友邦四川分公司于4月22日正式开业，开启内地市场的拓展之路2020年11月，友邦人寿开始筹建四川分公司，到目前四川分公司的正式开业，用时半年。位于成渝经济圈中心的成都成为友邦人寿在内陆地区的重要发力点，后续会逐渐地从成都拓宽到下一级的城市。我们判断友邦人寿下一步的扩展区域将选取经济活力较好、人才供给丰富的地方。据北京商报报道，在申请四川分公司获批之后，友邦还递交了另外一个省级分公司的申请。参照四川分公司的开设进程，我们预计友邦人寿后续将以每年开设2家分公司的速度扩张，同时在已有分公司区域向下一级城市扩张，新设分支机构或将在未来3年-5年形成NBV增长的拉动力。风险提示风险提示：经济环境恶化、货币政策传导不畅、政策调整超预期、海外疫情超预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}