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2021-06-03

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U.S. stocks will face "pain" in the next six months! Why does Morgan Stanley assert so?

一周之前，摩根大通刚刚警告称，全球股指可能会在夏季出现10%的回调，并且预计今年下半年美股的投资回报率将低于均值。如今，摩根士丹利也加入了警告大军，认为美股未来半年的回调幅度将达到10%或15%左右

U.S. stocks will face "pain" in the next six months! Why does Morgan Stanley assert so?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Why does Morgan Stanley assert so?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140749092","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一周之前，摩根大通刚刚警告称，全球股指可能会在夏季出现10%的回调，并且预计今年下半年美股的投资回报率将低于均值。\n如今，摩根士丹利也加入了警告大军，认为美股未来半年的回调幅度将达到10%或15%左右","content":"<p>A week ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It has just warned that global stock indexes may experience a 10% correction in the summer, and it is expected that the return on investment of U.S. stocks in the second half of this year will be lower than the average.</p><p>Today,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also joined the warning army, believing that the correction of U.S. stocks in the next six months will reach about 10% or 15%. For very crowded transactions such as long commodities and shorting the U.S. dollar, if there is any disappointing economic data such as U.S. inflation Disappointment will bring pain to investors.</p><p>In a research report on Monday, Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out that last year, U.S. stocks experienced abnormal fluctuations due to the fundamentals of the epidemic. This year, corporate profits have grown at an astonishing rate, and companies have revised their annual estimates. Very exaggerated.</p><p>Now it seems that for the U.S. stock market, the conclusions drawn from the above performance may be too optimistic.</p><p>The line first sees,<b>In the past four quarters, corporate earnings have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record; The revision range of corporate earnings is also close to 35%, which is also a very high figure. Future decline is inevitable, and it is easily affected.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d059695f172aa3dcbbca7f331ff921\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3029088da6c84f2cc1ee2ede50c6f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wilson said that the question now is whether when these two numbers start to decline, they will be severe enough to attract the attention of the market.</p><p>He further believes that the above situation is indeed likely to happen, considering that the current estimate of P/E in the next twelve months (NTM) is too high.</p><p>At the same time, corporate net profit margins are at historically highs, while soaring producer input prices are hitting corporate profits. Morgan Stanley said that the incremental operating margin has now exceeded the limit and is likely to disappoint the market even more in the next 12 months.</p><p>Why is that so? The reason is that supply constraints and higher input costs have put some pressure on profits, and the Biden administration may raise corporate taxes next year, which will have a further impact on this.</p><p>To sum up,<b>Benefiting from trillions of dollars in global fiscal stimulus, corporate earnings have performed well in the past few quarters, even exceeding Morgan Stanley's previous optimistic expectations. However, due to the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increase, the current forecast seems to be unrealistic.</b></p><p>But it is worth noting that after the record corporate profits in the first quarter, the U.S. stock market hardly fluctuated much, and the stock prices of several of the leading technology FAAMGs were even lower than in early April.</p><p>Considering the sharp revision of corporate earnings after the earnings season, the overall market price remained flat. In other words,<b>The declining P/E has been largely offset by rising earnings expectations.</b></p><p>Wilson warned that at this point, investors must ask themselves whether they think valuations will continue to move lower and whether future earnings revisions can offset this impact.</p><p>He also mentioned that although most clients he has communicated with believe that the current valuation level of U.S. stocks is reasonable, he still believes that,<b>The process of downgrading is not over yet, and the earnings revision cannot offset its impact. The US stock market may see a 10-15% adjustment in the next 6 months.</b></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks will face \"pain\" in the next six months! 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Why does Morgan Stanley assert so?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A week ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It has just warned that global stock indexes may experience a 10% correction in the summer, and it is expected that the return on investment of U.S. stocks in the second half of this year will be lower than the average.</p><p>Today,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also joined the warning army, believing that the correction of U.S. stocks in the next six months will reach about 10% or 15%. For very crowded transactions such as long commodities and shorting the U.S. dollar, if there is any disappointing economic data such as U.S. inflation Disappointment will bring pain to investors.</p><p>In a research report on Monday, Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out that last year, U.S. stocks experienced abnormal fluctuations due to the fundamentals of the epidemic. This year, corporate profits have grown at an astonishing rate, and companies have revised their annual estimates. Very exaggerated.</p><p>Now it seems that for the U.S. stock market, the conclusions drawn from the above performance may be too optimistic.</p><p>The line first sees,<b>In the past four quarters, corporate earnings have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record; The revision range of corporate earnings is also close to 35%, which is also a very high figure. Future decline is inevitable, and it is easily affected.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d059695f172aa3dcbbca7f331ff921\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3029088da6c84f2cc1ee2ede50c6f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wilson said that the question now is whether when these two numbers start to decline, they will be severe enough to attract the attention of the market.</p><p>He further believes that the above situation is indeed likely to happen, considering that the current estimate of P/E in the next twelve months (NTM) is too high.</p><p>At the same time, corporate net profit margins are at historically highs, while soaring producer input prices are hitting corporate profits. Morgan Stanley said that the incremental operating margin has now exceeded the limit and is likely to disappoint the market even more in the next 12 months.</p><p>Why is that so? The reason is that supply constraints and higher input costs have put some pressure on profits, and the Biden administration may raise corporate taxes next year, which will have a further impact on this.</p><p>To sum up,<b>Benefiting from trillions of dollars in global fiscal stimulus, corporate earnings have performed well in the past few quarters, even exceeding Morgan Stanley's previous optimistic expectations. However, due to the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increase, the current forecast seems to be unrealistic.</b></p><p>But it is worth noting that after the record corporate profits in the first quarter, the U.S. stock market hardly fluctuated much, and the stock prices of several of the leading technology FAAMGs were even lower than in early April.</p><p>Considering the sharp revision of corporate earnings after the earnings season, the overall market price remained flat. In other words,<b>The declining P/E has been largely offset by rising earnings expectations.</b></p><p>Wilson warned that at this point, investors must ask themselves whether they think valuations will continue to move lower and whether future earnings revisions can offset this impact.</p><p>He also mentioned that although most clients he has communicated with believe that the current valuation level of U.S. stocks is reasonable, he still believes that,<b>The process of downgrading is not over yet, and the earnings revision cannot offset its impact. The US stock market may see a 10-15% adjustment in the next 6 months.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631926\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631926","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140749092","content_text":"一周之前，摩根大通刚刚警告称，全球股指可能会在夏季出现10%的回调，并且预计今年下半年美股的投资回报率将低于均值。\n如今，摩根士丹利也加入了警告大军，认为美股未来半年的回调幅度将达到10%或15%左右，对于做多大宗商品、做空美元等非常拥挤的交易而言，若美国通胀等经济数据有了任何令人失望的风吹草动，就将为投资者们带来痛苦。\n在周一的研报中，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson指出，去年美股受疫情基本面因素扰动经历了异常的波动，到了今年，企业盈利增速惊人，企业对于年度预估的修正也很夸张。\n现在看来，针对美股市场，顺着上述表现所得出的结论，或许已是过于乐观。\n该行首先看到，在过去的四个季度里，企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下一个前所未有的新纪录；企业盈利修正幅度也接近35%，同样是一个非常高的数字，未来的下滑不可避免，且它很容易受到影响。\n\n\nWilson表示，目前的问题在于，当这两个数字开始出现下滑，其严重程度是否会到让市场关注的地步。\n他进一步认为，考虑到现在对未来十二个月（NTM）市盈率的预估也已经过高，上述情况确实有可能会发生。\n与此同时，企业净利率正处于历史高位，而不断飙升的生产者投入价格正在打击企业利润。摩根士丹利称，增量营业利润率现在已经超越了极限，很可能在未来十二个月内令市场更为失望。\n为何如此？其原因在于，供应受限和更高的投入成本为利润带来了一定压力，且明年拜登政府可能上调企业税，将对此造成进一步的影响。\n总结来看，受益于全球数万亿美元的财政刺激，企业盈利在过去几个季度当中表现出色，甚至超过了摩根士丹利此前的乐观预期。但由于成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云徘徊，目前的预测似乎都开始不切实际了起来。\n但值得注意的是，在一季度企业盈利创纪录过后，美股市场几乎没有什么太大波动，科技龙头FAAMG当中的几只，股价甚至比4月初还低。\n考虑到财报季过后企业盈利的大幅修正，整体市场价格仍旧持平。换句话说，不断下滑的市盈率在很大程度上已经被不断上升的盈利预期给抵消了。\nWilson警告称，到了这个时候，投资者必须扪心自问，是否认为估值会继续走低，以及未来的盈利修正能否抵消这一影响。\n他还提到，尽管与他有过交流的大部分客户均认为美股目前的估值水平较为合理，但他仍旧相信，下调评级的过程尚未结束，盈利修正也无法抵消其影响，美股市场未来6个月可能会出现10-15%的调整。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1617,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}