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黑木鍇
2021-06-24

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Boshi, Tong Zhibin, Zheng Chumeng Roundtable: Optimistic about Meituan and Pinduoduo, be cautious in the subject education track

6月12日下午，知名美港股券商老虎证券7周年开放日在北京朗园举办，老虎证券创始人CEO巫天华、技术副总裁柳锴分享了老虎证券作为科技券商的发展历程和里程碑。现场，多位来自一二级市场的投资人就当前的市场热

Boshi, Tong Zhibin, Zheng Chumeng Roundtable: Optimistic about Meituan and Pinduoduo, be cautious in the subject education track

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Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Securities, and Liu Kai, vice president of technology, shared the development history and milestones of Tiger Securities as a technology brokerage. At the scene, a number of investors from the primary and secondary markets expressed their views on the current market hotspots and investment opportunities in the next six months.</p><p>During the roundtable session, Boshi, manager of Dehe Investment Fund, Tong Zhibin, senior analyst of TMT, and Zheng Chumeng, founder of Yiye Technology and former Silicon Valley engineer, respectively elaborated on their views on star technology companies and investment opportunities in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>In view of the recent huge impact on the online tutoring industry and the plunge in stocks, Boshi said that there are still risks in the K12 field of future disciplines, and the competition among existing players may become more intense. It is recommended to treat opportunities in K12 subject training classes with caution. The application of Ai intelligence in the field of education may have more opportunities in the field of vocational education. In view of his research on domestic Public Offering of Fund, he also suggested that people who do not have time to conduct in-depth research and follow up on stocks can choose funds. The performance of fund managers in the past 3, 7 or even 10 years will be an important reference factor. In addition, the matching degree of fund managers' positions and strategies should also be paid attention to.</p><p>Comparing A-shares, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks, Tong Zhibin said that since the trend of US stocks has exceeded expectations, most of his current positions have shifted to A-share assets. At present, China's PPI continues to rise, and corporate profits are under pressure. From the perspective of regulatory expression, it is unlikely that there will be a rate hike in the second half of the year. In terms of stock selection, the logic is relatively simple. Just choose some companies that can carry PPI, that is, they can have pricing power in the market in which they are located. For example, in low-priced cars, Great Wall Motors has the ability to raise prices, while new power car companies may not be able to raise prices. As for Hong Kong stocks, Tong Zhibin said that since Hong Kong stocks have been dominated by financial and real estate companies, they have been highly sought after after the introduction of technology companies, and there will be a certain risk of correction at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d72003c6f95c8643f4dadb978d8baa0\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The semiconductor industry has experienced a large increase in the past six months. Zheng Chumeng, who once worked for ASML, analyzed the reasons. On the one hand, the epidemic has made online education, office work, and social networking the norm in the United States. Even the sales of tablet computers increased by 18% year-on-year, coupled with the new four modernizations of automobiles, these factors have given birth to a huge demand for chips. On the other hand, the production capacity is limited by the long investment cycle and cannot be rapidly increased in a short period of time. Coupled with the uncertainty of the recovery of the epidemic, the recovery of production capacity is difficult to predict. This is the reason for the chip shortage. If you look at Nvidia's annual report, you can also find that the demand for cryptocurrency mining is also becoming an important factor in the chip shortage.</p><p>Regarding the sharp correction of Chinese concept stocks, Zheng Chumeng said that he is still optimistic about Chinese concept stocks. \"Pinduoduo has been established for more than six years. Last year, the latest quarterly report showed that their annual users reached 820 million, compared with 800 million in Ali and 500 million in JD.COM. From this indicator, Pinduoduo's growth rate is very rapid.\" Zheng Chumeng said. Tong Zhibin believes that Pinduoduo has grabbed some Wechat business channels not by grabbing Ali's stock but by innovative means, and it will be a good time for Pinduoduo in the future. But in the short term, the current market value is a quarter of Ali's, which is a bit high. In the long run, Pinduoduo will grow stronger in community group buying.</p><p>Regarding the impact of Huang Zheng's resignation, Tong Zhibin said that many previous incidents in Pinduoduo were due to the fact that the scale of the company exceeded the founder's expectations, resulting in the management efficiency not keeping up with the development of the enterprise. Huang Zheng's resignation is conducive to the introduction of professional managers in Pinduoduo, but it is more conducive to the long-term development of the enterprise.</p><p>For Meituan, which has also attracted much attention from the capital market recently and has been controversial, Tong Zhibin believes that take-out service is still its most powerful source of cash flow profit. Although public opinion and regulatory authorities will emphasize its problems, Meituan So far, it still has the pricing power on commissions. Regarding Meituan's moat, Boshi believes that in the food delivery business, the system formed by Meituan is more efficient, surpassing its rival Ele.me. This efficiency advantage and experience will also help innovative businesses.</p><p>After the epidemic, global retail investors surged, while the new stock market in the United States became more prosperous, especially in the technology sector. In this regard, Zheng Chumeng believes that despite the rapid recovery of the epidemic in China, the number of new cases in the United States is still as high as about 10,000 per day. The epidemic is profoundly changing people's lives. Many companies in Silicon Valley have even introduced a new working mode that only works in the company every week. The epidemic has also spawned a large number of enabling and infrastructure-based technology companies. At the same time, large companies like Microsoft have also seized the opportunity to acquire a number of technology upstarts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8b4efeadcc4f86ddb088aff1ff3ef0\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the phenomenon of retail investors' short squeeze, Zheng Chumeng agrees that this will become the new normal. At the same time, he also suggests not to underestimate the strength of the traditional Wall Street financial team and to respect the market.</p><p>Boshi also observed the obvious increase of retail investors in the United States, and the trading behavior of these retail investors is not essentially different from that of domestic retail investors. In contrast, A-shares are developing towards institutionalization, and retail investors no longer play leverage and over-the-counter fund allocation as they did in 2015, but buy a large number of Public Offering of Fund. \"Overall, U.S. stocks still account for a larger proportion of institutions, while the stability of A-shares, including its proportion of institutions, will gradually increase, and I think it will become bigger and bigger in the future.\" Boshi said. In this regard, Tong Zhibin agreed: \"Retail investors should learn from Buffett and integrate the concept of value investing into the principle of dealing with people. If you don't study the company and follow retail investors to buy in a swarm, you are likely to be trapped in the end.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b82a9d4b0f05c209e26259bd48fa06c\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boshi, Tong Zhibin, Zheng Chumeng Roundtable: Optimistic about Meituan and Pinduoduo, be cautious in the subject education track</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoshi, Tong Zhibin, Zheng Chumeng Roundtable: Optimistic about Meituan and Pinduoduo, be cautious in the subject education track\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 23:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the afternoon of June 12th, the 7th anniversary open day of Tiger Securities, a well-known US and Hong Kong stock brokerage, was held in Langyuan, Beijing. Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Securities, and Liu Kai, vice president of technology, shared the development history and milestones of Tiger Securities as a technology brokerage. At the scene, a number of investors from the primary and secondary markets expressed their views on the current market hotspots and investment opportunities in the next six months.</p><p>During the roundtable session, Boshi, manager of Dehe Investment Fund, Tong Zhibin, senior analyst of TMT, and Zheng Chumeng, founder of Yiye Technology and former Silicon Valley engineer, respectively elaborated on their views on star technology companies and investment opportunities in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>In view of the recent huge impact on the online tutoring industry and the plunge in stocks, Boshi said that there are still risks in the K12 field of future disciplines, and the competition among existing players may become more intense. It is recommended to treat opportunities in K12 subject training classes with caution. The application of Ai intelligence in the field of education may have more opportunities in the field of vocational education. In view of his research on domestic Public Offering of Fund, he also suggested that people who do not have time to conduct in-depth research and follow up on stocks can choose funds. The performance of fund managers in the past 3, 7 or even 10 years will be an important reference factor. In addition, the matching degree of fund managers' positions and strategies should also be paid attention to.</p><p>Comparing A-shares, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks, Tong Zhibin said that since the trend of US stocks has exceeded expectations, most of his current positions have shifted to A-share assets. At present, China's PPI continues to rise, and corporate profits are under pressure. From the perspective of regulatory expression, it is unlikely that there will be a rate hike in the second half of the year. In terms of stock selection, the logic is relatively simple. Just choose some companies that can carry PPI, that is, they can have pricing power in the market in which they are located. For example, in low-priced cars, Great Wall Motors has the ability to raise prices, while new power car companies may not be able to raise prices. As for Hong Kong stocks, Tong Zhibin said that since Hong Kong stocks have been dominated by financial and real estate companies, they have been highly sought after after the introduction of technology companies, and there will be a certain risk of correction at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d72003c6f95c8643f4dadb978d8baa0\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The semiconductor industry has experienced a large increase in the past six months. Zheng Chumeng, who once worked for ASML, analyzed the reasons. On the one hand, the epidemic has made online education, office work, and social networking the norm in the United States. Even the sales of tablet computers increased by 18% year-on-year, coupled with the new four modernizations of automobiles, these factors have given birth to a huge demand for chips. On the other hand, the production capacity is limited by the long investment cycle and cannot be rapidly increased in a short period of time. Coupled with the uncertainty of the recovery of the epidemic, the recovery of production capacity is difficult to predict. This is the reason for the chip shortage. If you look at Nvidia's annual report, you can also find that the demand for cryptocurrency mining is also becoming an important factor in the chip shortage.</p><p>Regarding the sharp correction of Chinese concept stocks, Zheng Chumeng said that he is still optimistic about Chinese concept stocks. \"Pinduoduo has been established for more than six years. Last year, the latest quarterly report showed that their annual users reached 820 million, compared with 800 million in Ali and 500 million in JD.COM. From this indicator, Pinduoduo's growth rate is very rapid.\" Zheng Chumeng said. Tong Zhibin believes that Pinduoduo has grabbed some Wechat business channels not by grabbing Ali's stock but by innovative means, and it will be a good time for Pinduoduo in the future. But in the short term, the current market value is a quarter of Ali's, which is a bit high. In the long run, Pinduoduo will grow stronger in community group buying.</p><p>Regarding the impact of Huang Zheng's resignation, Tong Zhibin said that many previous incidents in Pinduoduo were due to the fact that the scale of the company exceeded the founder's expectations, resulting in the management efficiency not keeping up with the development of the enterprise. Huang Zheng's resignation is conducive to the introduction of professional managers in Pinduoduo, but it is more conducive to the long-term development of the enterprise.</p><p>For Meituan, which has also attracted much attention from the capital market recently and has been controversial, Tong Zhibin believes that take-out service is still its most powerful source of cash flow profit. Although public opinion and regulatory authorities will emphasize its problems, Meituan So far, it still has the pricing power on commissions. Regarding Meituan's moat, Boshi believes that in the food delivery business, the system formed by Meituan is more efficient, surpassing its rival Ele.me. This efficiency advantage and experience will also help innovative businesses.</p><p>After the epidemic, global retail investors surged, while the new stock market in the United States became more prosperous, especially in the technology sector. In this regard, Zheng Chumeng believes that despite the rapid recovery of the epidemic in China, the number of new cases in the United States is still as high as about 10,000 per day. The epidemic is profoundly changing people's lives. Many companies in Silicon Valley have even introduced a new working mode that only works in the company every week. The epidemic has also spawned a large number of enabling and infrastructure-based technology companies. At the same time, large companies like Microsoft have also seized the opportunity to acquire a number of technology upstarts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8b4efeadcc4f86ddb088aff1ff3ef0\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the phenomenon of retail investors' short squeeze, Zheng Chumeng agrees that this will become the new normal. At the same time, he also suggests not to underestimate the strength of the traditional Wall Street financial team and to respect the market.</p><p>Boshi also observed the obvious increase of retail investors in the United States, and the trading behavior of these retail investors is not essentially different from that of domestic retail investors. In contrast, A-shares are developing towards institutionalization, and retail investors no longer play leverage and over-the-counter fund allocation as they did in 2015, but buy a large number of Public Offering of Fund. \"Overall, U.S. stocks still account for a larger proportion of institutions, while the stability of A-shares, including its proportion of institutions, will gradually increase, and I think it will become bigger and bigger in the future.\" Boshi said. In this regard, Tong Zhibin agreed: \"Retail investors should learn from Buffett and integrate the concept of value investing into the principle of dealing with people. If you don't study the company and follow retail investors to buy in a swarm, you are likely to be trapped in the end.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b82a9d4b0f05c209e26259bd48fa06c\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb88831aeee93df3a0e3d746d13f5107","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106260047","content_text":"6月12日下午，知名美港股券商老虎证券7周年开放日在北京朗园举办，老虎证券创始人CEO巫天华、技术副总裁柳锴分享了老虎证券作为科技券商的发展历程和里程碑。现场，多位来自一二级市场的投资人就当前的市场热点和未来半年的投资机会发表看法。\n在圆桌环节，德合投资基金经理博实、TMT资深分析师仝志斌、壹叶科技创始人、前硅谷工程师郑楚梦分别阐述了自己对明星科技公司、半导体行业投资机会的看法。\n针对近期在线辅导行业受到巨大冲击、股票暴跌的行情，博实表示，未来学科类的K12领域仍让存在风险，同时现存的玩家可能竞争会更加激烈。建议谨慎对待K12学科培训类的机会。而Ai智能在教育领域的应用，在职业教育领域可能更有机会。鉴于对国内公募基金颇有研究，他也建议没有时间深入研究和跟进股票的人可以选择基金。而基金经理在过去3年、7年甚至10年的业绩会是比较重要的参考因素，另外，基金经理的持仓跟策略的匹配程度也要关注。\n对A股、美股和港股的比较，仝志斌表示，由于美股的走势已经超出预期，他本人目前大部分仓位已转向A股资产。当下中国PPI持续走高，企业利润面临压力，从监管层面的表达看，下半年加息的可能性不大。在选股上，逻辑比较简单，就选一些能扛PPI的公司，也就是能在所处的市场里拥有定价权，比如说低价车里，长城汽车就具备涨价的能力，而造车新势力车企却未必能涨价。而对港股的看法，仝志斌表示，港股由于一直被金融、房产类公司主导，引入科技公司后受到极大追捧，当前会有一定的回调风险。\n\n半导体行业在过去半年涨幅较大，曾经就职于阿斯麦的郑楚梦分析了原因。一方面，疫情让线上教育、办公、社交在美国成为常态，连平板电脑销量同比增长18%，加上汽车的新四化，这些因素一起催生了对芯片的巨大需求。另一方面，产能端受限于投入周期长，无法在短时间内迅速提升。加上疫情复苏的不确定性，产能复苏情况难以预测。这就是芯片荒的原因。如果看英伟达的年报，还能发现加密货币挖矿的需求也在成为芯片短缺的重要因素。\n对于中概股大幅回调的情况，郑楚梦表示依然看好中概股，“拼多多成立6年多，去年最近季报显示，他们年活用户达到了8.2亿，同期的阿里是8亿，京东是5亿，从这一个指标来看，拼多多的增长速度是非常迅猛的。“郑楚梦表示。仝志斌认为，拼多多不是靠抢阿里的存量而是靠创新的手段抢了一些微商的渠道，往后才是拼多多的好时候。但是短期看，目前市值是阿里的四分之一，有点偏高。而长期来看，拼多多在社区团购中成长性会更强。\n对黄峥离职的影响，仝志斌表示，之前拼多多的诸多事件是因为公司的规模超出创始人预期，导致管理效率跟不上企业的发展，黄峥的离职有利于拼多多引入专业的管理人，反而是更有利于企业的长远发展。\n对同为近期倍受资本市场关注又争议不断的美团，仝志斌认为，外卖到店服务依然是它最有力的现金流的利润源泉，虽然舆论和监管部门会强调它的问题，但是美团目前为止依然拥有对佣金的定价权。关于美团的护城河，博实认为在外卖业务上，美团所形成的系统效率更高，超过对手饿了么。这种效率优势以及经验同样会对创新业务有所助益。\n疫情过后，全球散户猛增，同时美国的新股市场变得更加繁荣，尤其在科技领域。对此现象，郑楚梦认为，尽管中国疫情复苏速度很快，但美国的新增病例依然大高达每日1万例左右，疫情在深刻地改变人们的生活，硅谷很多公司甚至推出了每周只在公司上3天班这样的新型工作模式。疫情还催生了一大批赋能型和基建型的科技公司，与其同时，像微软这样的大公司也抓住机会收购了一批科技新贵。\n\n对于散户逼空的现象，郑楚梦认同这将成为新常态，同时他也建议不要低估传统的华尔街金融团队的实力，要敬畏市场。\n博实同样观察到美国散户明显增多的现象，并且这些散户的交易行为和国内的散户并无本质不同，与之相对比的是A股却在往机构化发展，散户不再像2015年那样玩杠杆和场外配资，而是大量买公募基金。“整体来说，美股还是机构占比更多，而A股的稳定性，包括它的机构占比会逐步地增多，而且我觉得未来会越来越大。”博实表示。对此，仝志斌表示认同：“散户投资应该学习巴菲特，把价值投资的理念融入到为人处事的额原则当中。如果你不研究公司，一窝蜂地跟着散户去买的话，最后很可能被套进去。“","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0,"PDD":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}