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cenziwei
2021-05-26

Haha retail investors in trouble

What does the A-share shocking Yang line mean: the dangerous moment has passed, and the "double bull" is coming

挑战四千点，这只是开始。

What does the A-share shocking Yang line mean: the dangerous moment has passed, and the "double bull" is coming

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Our logic is constantly being fulfilled, and the trend of mid-cap blue chips leading and large-cap blue chips following is also being fulfilled. In this regard, we believe that sideways will not last long, challenging 4,000 points, brokerage stocks will take the lead, mid-cap blue chips will lead, large-cap blue chips will follow, and little demon tickets will not be big. The above analysts pointed out that the core driving force of the pull-up comes from the denominator side:</p><p>First, the risk assessment decreased. Economic policy uncertainty and macro risk expectations are declining rapidly, including the steepest stage of bulk price increases and credit tightening expectations. It is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten policies during the year. Second, the risk-free rate of return is difficult to go up and easy to go down. Overseas, inflation expectations implied by U.S. debt have reached historical highs; Domestically, the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate continues to fall back to 3.08%. With the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate, the liquidity advantage is expected to continue. Third, the current risk appetite remains basically stable. Risk appetite is still in the middle and low position, the superimposed valuation profit has moved from divergence to convergence, and the micro-trading structure has moved from collapse to optimization, and the blue-chip upward channel has opened again. Guojun's strategy suggests choosing stocks with the largest marginal change from uncertain performance to certain performance. It is expected that there will be a general rise pattern of blue-chip stocks in the market. The difference is that mid-cap blue-chips lead and large-cap blue-chips follow.</p><p>Qin Han and Shi Lingling, the monarch's fixed income team, said in another report that the \"downward expectation\" of the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate between China and the United States has strengthened, and the Nasdaq and A-shares have rebounded strongly, indicating that the downward view of \"risk-free interest rate expectations\" has been widely recognized, thus promoting the continuous recovery of the equity market.</p><p>Guojun's fixed income team compared the current stock market conditions to the market conditions during June-July 2020:</p><p>The risk-free interest rate (wealth management and goods-based yield) in investors' minds continues to decline, the yield of money funds exceeds 1.5%, and the opportunity cost of buying stocks drops sharply. The continuous entry of incremental funds strengthens the \"wave\" rising market of undervalued sectors, forming a logical closed loop of \"undervalued sectors rising-Shanghai Composite Index rising-economic recovery expectations strengthening-bond market falling-net-value wealth management losing money-risk-free interest rates falling-undervalued sectors rising\". Guojun's fixed income team reiterated the view that stocks and bonds are both bullish, believing that in the bond market, as inflation expectations have peaked, multiple departments have introduced policies to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" of commodities, and the \"most dangerous\" time for inflation has passed. The expectation of long-term stable funds is relatively clear, and the judgment that the domestic bond market is in a \"bull market\" is increasingly recognized.</p><p>According to the team, referring to the law that the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate fell by 50 basis points on average in a \"bull market\", it is expected that the first target of the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 3.0% will not be the end of this round of market, and the next stage will look towards the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 2.8%.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What does the A-share shocking Yang line mean: the dangerous moment has passed, and the \"double bull\" is coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat does the A-share shocking Yang line mean: the dangerous moment has passed, and the \"double bull\" is coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 09:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 25, A-shares ushered in a long-lost surge, the big financial sector broke out, brokerage stocks continued to rise, and liquor stocks drove the consumer sector to strengthen. The three major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen all rose by more than 2%, and the net purchase of northbound funds was 21.723 billion yuan, a new record high.</p><p>A big positive line changed investors' beliefs, and the focus of market discussion turned to: Is the bull market coming? In this regard, the Guojun strategy team, which shouted \"Challenge 4,000 points\" some time ago, once again shouted: \"Challenge 4,000 points, this is just the beginning.\" The Guojun fixed income team clearly stated that in the next stage, the market will usher in stocks and bonds. Double bulls.</p><p>When commenting on yesterday's market, analysts such as Chen Xianshun, Fang Yi and Huang Weichi of Guojun Strategy Team said that as the macro and external environment moves from uncertainty to certainty, the risk assessment will decline, thus driving the market from shock to rise:</p><p>On May 25th, the market rose sharply and the trading volume enlarged. Our logic is constantly being fulfilled, and the trend of mid-cap blue chips leading and large-cap blue chips following is also being fulfilled. In this regard, we believe that sideways will not last long, challenging 4,000 points, brokerage stocks will take the lead, mid-cap blue chips will lead, large-cap blue chips will follow, and little demon tickets will not be big. The above analysts pointed out that the core driving force of the pull-up comes from the denominator side:</p><p>First, the risk assessment decreased. Economic policy uncertainty and macro risk expectations are declining rapidly, including the steepest stage of bulk price increases and credit tightening expectations. It is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten policies during the year. Second, the risk-free rate of return is difficult to go up and easy to go down. Overseas, inflation expectations implied by U.S. debt have reached historical highs; Domestically, the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate continues to fall back to 3.08%. With the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate, the liquidity advantage is expected to continue. Third, the current risk appetite remains basically stable. Risk appetite is still in the middle and low position, the superimposed valuation profit has moved from divergence to convergence, and the micro-trading structure has moved from collapse to optimization, and the blue-chip upward channel has opened again. Guojun's strategy suggests choosing stocks with the largest marginal change from uncertain performance to certain performance. It is expected that there will be a general rise pattern of blue-chip stocks in the market. The difference is that mid-cap blue-chips lead and large-cap blue-chips follow.</p><p>Qin Han and Shi Lingling, the monarch's fixed income team, said in another report that the \"downward expectation\" of the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate between China and the United States has strengthened, and the Nasdaq and A-shares have rebounded strongly, indicating that the downward view of \"risk-free interest rate expectations\" has been widely recognized, thus promoting the continuous recovery of the equity market.</p><p>Guojun's fixed income team compared the current stock market conditions to the market conditions during June-July 2020:</p><p>The risk-free interest rate (wealth management and goods-based yield) in investors' minds continues to decline, the yield of money funds exceeds 1.5%, and the opportunity cost of buying stocks drops sharply. The continuous entry of incremental funds strengthens the \"wave\" rising market of undervalued sectors, forming a logical closed loop of \"undervalued sectors rising-Shanghai Composite Index rising-economic recovery expectations strengthening-bond market falling-net-value wealth management losing money-risk-free interest rates falling-undervalued sectors rising\". Guojun's fixed income team reiterated the view that stocks and bonds are both bullish, believing that in the bond market, as inflation expectations have peaked, multiple departments have introduced policies to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" of commodities, and the \"most dangerous\" time for inflation has passed. The expectation of long-term stable funds is relatively clear, and the judgment that the domestic bond market is in a \"bull market\" is increasingly recognized.</p><p>According to the team, referring to the law that the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate fell by 50 basis points on average in a \"bull market\", it is expected that the first target of the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 3.0% will not be the end of this round of market, and the next stage will look towards the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 2.8%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631262\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"09141":"华夏亚投债-U"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631262","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138194497","content_text":"5月25日，A股迎来久违的大涨，大金融板块爆发，券商股持续拉升，白酒股带动消费板块走强，沪深创三大指数均上涨超2%，北向资金净买入217.23亿元，刷新历史新高。一根大阳线改变了投资者信仰，市场讨论焦点转向：牛市是否来了？对此，前段时间喊出“挑战四千点”的国君策略团队再次高呼：“挑战四千点，这只是开始。“ 国君固收团队更是旗帜鲜明地表示，下一阶段，市场将迎来股债双牛。国君策略团队陈显顺、方奕、黄维驰等分析师在点评昨日行情时表示，随着宏观与外围环境由不确定走向确定，风险评价将会下降，由此驱动行情从震荡走向拉升：5月25日市场大涨，成交量放大，我们的逻辑正在不断地被兑现之中，中盘蓝筹领跑、大盘蓝筹跟随的趋势也在兑现之下。就此，我们认为：横盘不长久，挑战四千点，券商股打头阵，中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随，小妖票没大戏。上述分析师指出，拉升的核心驱动力来自分母端：第一，风险评价下降。经济政策不确定性与宏观风险预期正在快速下行，包括大宗涨价以及信用收紧预期斜率最为陡峭的阶段已经过去，年内政策端易松难紧。第二，无风险收益率上行难、下行易。海外方面，美债隐含的通胀预期已处历史高点；国内方面，十年期国债利率继续回落至3.08%，伴随人民币汇率走强，流动性优势有望延续。第三，当前风险偏好基本保持稳定。风险偏好仍处中低位置，叠加估值盈利从背离走向收敛，以及微观交易结构从崩塌走向优化，蓝筹上行通道再度打开。国君策略建议选择业绩从不确定走向确定边际变化最大的股票，预计市场将出现蓝筹股普涨格局，差异在于中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随。国君固收团队覃汉、石玲玲在另一份报告中表示，中美十年期国债利率“下行预期”加强，纳指和A股强势反弹，说明“无风险利率预期”下行的观点已经得到广泛认可，从而推动了权益市场持续修复。国君固收团队将眼下的股市行情类比 2020年6-7月期间的行情：投资者心中的无风险利率（理财、货基收益率）持续下降，货币基金收益率破 1.5%，买股票的机会成本大幅下降，部分抱团资金切换至低估值板块成为行情发动者，增量资金持续进场强化了低估值板块的“一波流”上涨行情，形成了“低估值板块上涨—上证综指上涨—经济复苏预期强化—债市下跌—净值型理财亏钱—投资者心中的无风险利率下行—低估值板块上涨”的逻辑闭环。国君固收团队重申了股债双牛的看法，认为债市方面，随着通胀预期见顶，多部门出台政策做好大宗商品“保供稳价”，通胀“最危险”的时候已经过去，而资金面长期平稳的预期较为明确，国内债市处于“小牛市”的判断越来越受认可。该团队表示，参考一轮“小牛市”10年国债利率平均下行50个基点的规律，预计10 年国债利率第一目标位3.0%不会是本轮行情的终点，下一阶段看向10年国债利率2.8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"09141":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2164,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}