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2021-05-30

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Six "chiefs" gather together! How to lay out capital market investment in the second half of the year?

A股近期呈现震荡的走势，这对于投资人来说既是机遇也是挑战，关键在于投资策略的选择和机遇的把握。下半年，该如何布局资本市场投资？近日在第十届“富国论坛”上，由富国基金首席经济学家袁宜主持，邀请到了申万

Six "chiefs" gather together! How to lay out capital market investment in the second half of the year?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":137452122,"tweetId":"137452122","gmtCreate":1622381389066,"gmtModify":1704183673504,"author":{"id":3581996735242444,"idStr":"3581996735242444","authorId":3581996735242444,"authorIdStr":"3581996735242444","name":"rainyap","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a7d0f299d2fd92b5ecc47bc0064a053","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>666</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>666</body></html>","text":"666","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137452122","repostId":1176685593,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176685593","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1622337845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176685593?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-30 09:24","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Six \"chiefs\" gather together! How to lay out capital market investment in the second half of the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176685593","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"A股近期呈现震荡的走势，这对于投资人来说既是机遇也是挑战，关键在于投资策略的选择和机遇的把握。下半年，该如何布局资本市场投资？\n近日在第十届“富国论坛”上，由富国基金首席经济学家袁宜主持，邀请到了申万","content":"A-shares have shown a volatile trend recently, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for investors. The key lies in the choice of investment strategies and the grasp of opportunities. In the second half of the year, how to lay out capital market investment?Recently, at the 10th \"Wells Fargo Forum\", Yuan Yi, chief economist of Wells Fargo Fund, presided over, invited<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Wang Sheng, deputy general manager and chief strategist of Securities Research Institute, vice chairman of Soochow Hong Kong,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Chen Li, global chief strategy officer, Chen Guo, assistant general manager and chief strategist of Essence Securities Research Center, Zhang Yu, assistant director and chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>Guo Lei, managing director and chief economist of the Research and Development Center, had a heated discussion on investment in the capital market in the second half of the year.The six \"chiefs\" gather together, and the views are naturally worth seeing.Core assets will changeRegarding how to view the short-term and medium-and long-term performance of core assets, Chen Guo, Wang Sheng and Chen Li all talked about the key word change. However, there are different perceptions of whether the core assets are industry leaders.Chen GuoIt is believed that, first of all, in terms of vocabulary, the core assets are difficult to grasp and change every year.If core assets are used to guide the investment strategy of the A-share market, it doesn't have much significance in the short term, has certain significance in the medium term, and has little significance in the long term.In the short term, this investment strategy has been fully reacted by the market, even overreacted, and will return.From a medium-term perspective, profitability is relatively certain, and there is still the advantage of being a white horse leader.In the long run, he personally believes that it doesn't make much sense. He mentioned that there is an overseas book called \"Foundation Evergreen\", which selected the core assets at that time to track long-term performance. Nine of these companies did not outperform the S&P 500 index, and nine companies outperformed the S&P 500 index. 500 index.So he doesn't think it makes much sense in the long run, because any industry will face prosperity and aging, and they probably underestimate this change in the long run.New technologies, new management, and any new policies may change, so they are not so fixed or so core.Wang ShengA word to investors,In an era without core assets, only the core assets of the times.He turned to a report on core assets in 2004. At that time, the core assets were mainly about the export industry chain. In 2006 and 2007, the core assets became the so-called \"coal flying color dance\". Major changes took place in 2010. The stock market's expectations for real estate and cyclical industrial chain changed. Later, consumption became a very important core asset.He also believes that in 2017, it seems that everyone thinks that the core asset is consumption, but it is not. It is the leading stock in every industry. In 2017, he reported that regardless of whether it is consumption, technology or cycle, just buy all the leading stocks with your eyes closed. Looking back today, it really wasn't that big (difference).After 2018, with the huge changes in the investor structure, white horse stocks gradually gained (recognition). The essence is that others do not grow, and it is very scarce.In the long run, a good company will bring good returns in the end, he agreed. But at this stage, when the valuation is relatively high, and other things may begin to pick up, its advantages are not so prominent.In addition, Wang Sheng also believes that,New economy and new growth points are brewing. He is willing to judge three directions for everyone, the first is digital economy, the second is artificial intelligence, and the third is new energy.He believes that with the emergence of these new directions, many small companies are brewing high growth and huge growth space in the future.Under such a big situation, he expects that the entire style of the market will be more balanced in the future, and this balanced process may last for many years on an annual basis.Targets with low valuations or relatively appropriate valuations will usher in many years (opportunities), and the style may gradually turn to value.Chen LiWhen it comes to it, if core assets are understood as industries, they are changing. The economic cycle of each industry will change every two or three years, so there may be different tendencies when choosing industries every two or three years. In the past, they may have preferred consumption, but now they prefer new consumption. They used to prefer traditional energy, but now they prefer new energy.But on the other hand, as a good company in the industry, he personally thinks it is relatively lasting. A good company has its own genes, and genes cannot be copied in a short time.Moreover, Chen Li particularly emphasized that if a good company has a 1% competitive advantage in the industry, it will expand to a very large extent if it is given a long enough time.He believes that if you look a little longer, a little progress of excellent companies in the medium and long term will have great power, so in this sense,The leader in the industry is still the most important strategy.The economy is not badRegarding the economic situation in the next six months to one year, Guo Lei believes that there will be no economic pressure throughout the year, while Yu Zhang believes that the economy is uneven.Specifically,Guo LeiIndicates,First, the economy won't keep accelerating;Second, the economy will not be too bad in the second half of the year. He judged that there would be no economic pressure throughout the year. It is mainly based on three factors that can provide support for the economy.The first factor is exports. With the advancement of overseas vaccines, overseas consumption will bring about an increase in orders. Therefore, exports are one of the most important driving factors of the whole economy this year.The second is real estate. The third reason is that the overall finance presents post-positioned characteristics.If we talk about the bright spots, Guo Lei suggested two aspects.First, he believes that if the price slope of bulk commodities goes down in the third quarter, the cost side of the manufacturing industry will still be liberated to a large extent.In addition, last year, China exported a large number of products that were relatively \"home\". This year, with the advancement of overseas vaccination, he feels that some demands for travel and social interaction will gradually rise.Zhang YuIt is believed that this year's macro-economy will be in an uneven state, with ups and downs. Throughout the second half of the year, she is optimistic about the following directions: one is that the manufacturing industry is upward, but its upward slope is very moderate; The second is the restoration of the service industry.The market has structural opportunitiesChen Guo, Wang Sheng and Chen Li talked about their views on the A-share market in the next six months to one year.Chen GuoIt is believed that at this point in time, in the next six months to one year, A-shares should not be a unilateral market.In the future, he feels that overseas factors will affect the fluctuation of A shares. But there is some endogenous support for A shares.The A-share market may be slightly upward, but overall it still fluctuates widely.Chen Guo also said that there is not much systemic risk problem in domestic fundamentals, and even some factors are relatively favorable, that is, the entire policy mix is more rational.In addition, he also said that the trend of residents' asset allocation still seems relatively clear now, and the behavior of the entire Christian citizens is more rational than before, which will not amplify market fluctuations, which may be conducive to the stability of the market valuation center. Therefore, he believes that in the next six months to one year, there will still be high fluctuations, but the center of gravity will be slightly higher.Wang ShengIt is reminded that we should pay attention to the phased changes in the credit environment in the second half of this year.He believes that in the third quarter, there are some things that have experienced relatively large gains in the early stage. After a rebound, there may be momentum to go down again。At the same time, their bond team believes that at such a low credit risk premium and such a high term spread, the bond adjustment has not yet ended on the basis that the current time period and range of the entire interest rate have not been completed.So he thinksThe rise in interest rates again is a structural issue worthy of attention in the second half of the year.He thinks the whole year is like 2010. The index will fluctuate subsequently, but the market has always had structural opportunities.Chen LiAdded some information on external risks and internal positive factors.He said that there are of course macro factors for external risks. But if we look at it micro, we will find that the enthusiasm, leverage and sentiment of individual investors in the US stock market are currently (very high).Individual investors in the United States cannot buy new shares, so now there are many trusts pooling money to buy new shares; Some stocks in the United States are very expensive, and there are cases where several people buy them together. For a while, half of his friends in the United States were trading various cryptocurrencies. This enthusiasm and leverage of individual investors' participation worries him very much.As for the internal positive factors, he thinks that both finance and currency are relatively positive, which is a positive signal for the stock market, including the economic recovery and the growth of corporate profits.Third, he reiterated the question about manufacturing. He feels that the overall national development strategy has undergone significant changes in the past two years. Now it is noticed that economic growth, quality and development can only be achieved through manufacturing, because after all, the fight against the epidemic last year mainly relied on the integrity of the industrial system.He believes that,In the next 10 years, the direction will be manufacturing. In the past 5 to 7 years, what I love most is retail, Internet, and business model innovation. In the next five years, what he wants to love may be hard technology.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Six \"chiefs\" gather together! 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How to lay out capital market investment in the second half of the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-05-30 09:24\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA-shares have shown a volatile trend recently, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for investors. The key lies in the choice of investment strategies and the grasp of opportunities. In the second half of the year, how to lay out capital market investment?Recently, at the 10th \"Wells Fargo Forum\", Yuan Yi, chief economist of Wells Fargo Fund, presided over, invited<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Wang Sheng, deputy general manager and chief strategist of Securities Research Institute, vice chairman of Soochow Hong Kong,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Chen Li, global chief strategy officer, Chen Guo, assistant general manager and chief strategist of Essence Securities Research Center, Zhang Yu, assistant director and chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>Guo Lei, managing director and chief economist of the Research and Development Center, had a heated discussion on investment in the capital market in the second half of the year.The six \"chiefs\" gather together, and the views are naturally worth seeing.Core assets will changeRegarding how to view the short-term and medium-and long-term performance of core assets, Chen Guo, Wang Sheng and Chen Li all talked about the key word change. However, there are different perceptions of whether the core assets are industry leaders.Chen GuoIt is believed that, first of all, in terms of vocabulary, the core assets are difficult to grasp and change every year.If core assets are used to guide the investment strategy of the A-share market, it doesn't have much significance in the short term, has certain significance in the medium term, and has little significance in the long term.In the short term, this investment strategy has been fully reacted by the market, even overreacted, and will return.From a medium-term perspective, profitability is relatively certain, and there is still the advantage of being a white horse leader.In the long run, he personally believes that it doesn't make much sense. He mentioned that there is an overseas book called \"Foundation Evergreen\", which selected the core assets at that time to track long-term performance. Nine of these companies did not outperform the S&P 500 index, and nine companies outperformed the S&P 500 index. 500 index.So he doesn't think it makes much sense in the long run, because any industry will face prosperity and aging, and they probably underestimate this change in the long run.New technologies, new management, and any new policies may change, so they are not so fixed or so core.Wang ShengA word to investors,In an era without core assets, only the core assets of the times.He turned to a report on core assets in 2004. At that time, the core assets were mainly about the export industry chain. In 2006 and 2007, the core assets became the so-called \"coal flying color dance\". Major changes took place in 2010. The stock market's expectations for real estate and cyclical industrial chain changed. Later, consumption became a very important core asset.He also believes that in 2017, it seems that everyone thinks that the core asset is consumption, but it is not. It is the leading stock in every industry. In 2017, he reported that regardless of whether it is consumption, technology or cycle, just buy all the leading stocks with your eyes closed. Looking back today, it really wasn't that big (difference).After 2018, with the huge changes in the investor structure, white horse stocks gradually gained (recognition). The essence is that others do not grow, and it is very scarce.In the long run, a good company will bring good returns in the end, he agreed. But at this stage, when the valuation is relatively high, and other things may begin to pick up, its advantages are not so prominent.In addition, Wang Sheng also believes that,New economy and new growth points are brewing. He is willing to judge three directions for everyone, the first is digital economy, the second is artificial intelligence, and the third is new energy.He believes that with the emergence of these new directions, many small companies are brewing high growth and huge growth space in the future.Under such a big situation, he expects that the entire style of the market will be more balanced in the future, and this balanced process may last for many years on an annual basis.Targets with low valuations or relatively appropriate valuations will usher in many years (opportunities), and the style may gradually turn to value.Chen LiWhen it comes to it, if core assets are understood as industries, they are changing. The economic cycle of each industry will change every two or three years, so there may be different tendencies when choosing industries every two or three years. In the past, they may have preferred consumption, but now they prefer new consumption. They used to prefer traditional energy, but now they prefer new energy.But on the other hand, as a good company in the industry, he personally thinks it is relatively lasting. A good company has its own genes, and genes cannot be copied in a short time.Moreover, Chen Li particularly emphasized that if a good company has a 1% competitive advantage in the industry, it will expand to a very large extent if it is given a long enough time.He believes that if you look a little longer, a little progress of excellent companies in the medium and long term will have great power, so in this sense,The leader in the industry is still the most important strategy.The economy is not badRegarding the economic situation in the next six months to one year, Guo Lei believes that there will be no economic pressure throughout the year, while Yu Zhang believes that the economy is uneven.Specifically,Guo LeiIndicates,First, the economy won't keep accelerating;Second, the economy will not be too bad in the second half of the year. He judged that there would be no economic pressure throughout the year. It is mainly based on three factors that can provide support for the economy.The first factor is exports. With the advancement of overseas vaccines, overseas consumption will bring about an increase in orders. Therefore, exports are one of the most important driving factors of the whole economy this year.The second is real estate. The third reason is that the overall finance presents post-positioned characteristics.If we talk about the bright spots, Guo Lei suggested two aspects.First, he believes that if the price slope of bulk commodities goes down in the third quarter, the cost side of the manufacturing industry will still be liberated to a large extent.In addition, last year, China exported a large number of products that were relatively \"home\". This year, with the advancement of overseas vaccination, he feels that some demands for travel and social interaction will gradually rise.Zhang YuIt is believed that this year's macro-economy will be in an uneven state, with ups and downs. Throughout the second half of the year, she is optimistic about the following directions: one is that the manufacturing industry is upward, but its upward slope is very moderate; The second is the restoration of the service industry.The market has structural opportunitiesChen Guo, Wang Sheng and Chen Li talked about their views on the A-share market in the next six months to one year.Chen GuoIt is believed that at this point in time, in the next six months to one year, A-shares should not be a unilateral market.In the future, he feels that overseas factors will affect the fluctuation of A shares. But there is some endogenous support for A shares.The A-share market may be slightly upward, but overall it still fluctuates widely.Chen Guo also said that there is not much systemic risk problem in domestic fundamentals, and even some factors are relatively favorable, that is, the entire policy mix is more rational.In addition, he also said that the trend of residents' asset allocation still seems relatively clear now, and the behavior of the entire Christian citizens is more rational than before, which will not amplify market fluctuations, which may be conducive to the stability of the market valuation center. Therefore, he believes that in the next six months to one year, there will still be high fluctuations, but the center of gravity will be slightly higher.Wang ShengIt is reminded that we should pay attention to the phased changes in the credit environment in the second half of this year.He believes that in the third quarter, there are some things that have experienced relatively large gains in the early stage. After a rebound, there may be momentum to go down again。At the same time, their bond team believes that at such a low credit risk premium and such a high term spread, the bond adjustment has not yet ended on the basis that the current time period and range of the entire interest rate have not been completed.So he thinksThe rise in interest rates again is a structural issue worthy of attention in the second half of the year.He thinks the whole year is like 2010. The index will fluctuate subsequently, but the market has always had structural opportunities.Chen LiAdded some information on external risks and internal positive factors.He said that there are of course macro factors for external risks. But if we look at it micro, we will find that the enthusiasm, leverage and sentiment of individual investors in the US stock market are currently (very high).Individual investors in the United States cannot buy new shares, so now there are many trusts pooling money to buy new shares; Some stocks in the United States are very expensive, and there are cases where several people buy them together. For a while, half of his friends in the United States were trading various cryptocurrencies. This enthusiasm and leverage of individual investors' participation worries him very much.As for the internal positive factors, he thinks that both finance and currency are relatively positive, which is a positive signal for the stock market, including the economic recovery and the growth of corporate profits.Third, he reiterated the question about manufacturing. He feels that the overall national development strategy has undergone significant changes in the past two years. Now it is noticed that economic growth, quality and development can only be achieved through manufacturing, because after all, the fight against the epidemic last year mainly relied on the integrity of the industrial system.He believes that,In the next 10 years, the direction will be manufacturing. In the past 5 to 7 years, what I love most is retail, Internet, and business model innovation. In the next five years, what he wants to love may be hard technology.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176685593","content_text":"A股近期呈现震荡的走势，这对于投资人来说既是机遇也是挑战，关键在于投资策略的选择和机遇的把握。下半年，该如何布局资本市场投资？\n近日在第十届“富国论坛”上，由富国基金首席经济学家袁宜主持，邀请到了申万宏源证券研究所副总经理、首席策略分析师王胜，东吴香港副董事长、东吴证券全球首席策略官陈李，安信证券研究中心总经理助理、首席策略师陈果，华创证券研究所所长助理、首席宏观分析师张瑜，广发证券研究发展中心董事总经理、首席经济学家郭磊就下半年资本市场的投资展开热烈讨论。\n六大“首席”汇聚一堂，观点自然值得一看。\n核心资产是会变化的\n对于如何看待核心资产短期和中长期的表现的问题，陈果、王胜、陈李都谈到了变化这一关键词。但是对于核心资产是否是行业龙头认知不同。\n陈果认为，首先从词汇来说，核心资产就是很难去把握，每年都在变。如果用核心资产来引导A股市场的投资策略，在短期没有太大的意义，在中期有一定的意义，在长期也没有太大的意义。\n短期来讲，这种投资策略已经被市场充分的反应，甚至反应过度，还要回归。\n站在中期的角度，盈利相对确定性，还是存在白马龙头优势的。\n长期来说，他个人相信没有太大的意义。他谈到，海外有一本书叫《基业常青》，选择了当时的核心资产去追踪长期的表现，这些公司有9家公司没有跑赢标普500指数，有9家公司跑赢了标普500指数。\n所以他认为从长期来看没有太大的意义，原因是任何行业都会面临兴盛衰老，它们很可能低估了长期的这种变化，新的技术、新的管理层、新的任何的政策都可能有变化，所以没有那么固定，也没有那么核心。\n王胜送给投资者一句话，没有核心资产的时代，只有时代的核心资产。\n他翻到过一篇2004年写核心资产的报告，那个时候的核心资产讲的主要是出口产业链。2006、2007年核心资产变成了所谓的“煤飞色舞”。在2010年的时候发生了重大变化，股票市场对房地产以及周期产业链的预期发生变化，后来消费就成为了非常重要的核心资产。\n他还认为，2017年看起来，好像大家以为核心资产是消费，其实不是，是每个行业的龙头股票。2017年他有报告说，不要管到底是消费、科技还是周期，只要闭着眼睛把龙头股全部买一遍就可以了。今天回过头来看，真的没有那么大的（差异）。\n2018年之后，随着投资者结构的巨大变化，白马股逐渐获得了（认可），本质是别人不增长，它很稀缺。\n长期来看，好公司最后一定能带来好的回报，他认同。但是在这个阶段估值比较高，而其他的东西可能开始回升的时候，它的优势就没有这么突出。\n此外王胜还认为，新经济、新的增长点正在酝酿，他愿意给大家判断三个方向，第一数字经济，第二人工智能，第三新能源。他认为，这些新的方向的出现，使得很多小公司正在酝酿着未来的高成长和巨大的成长空间。\n在这样大格局之下，他期待在未来市场的整个风格会更加的均衡，而且这种均衡的过程可能是以年度为单位会持续很多年，低估值或者说估值相对合适的标的将会迎来多年（机会），风格可能会逐渐的转向价值。\n陈李则谈到，如果把核心资产理解为行业，它是变化的。每两三年每行业的经济周期都会发生变化，所以可能每两三年在选择行业的时候会有不同的倾向性。以前他们可能比较偏爱消费，现在偏爱新消费，以前偏爱传统能源，现在偏爱新能源。\n但是另一层面来说，作为行业内的好公司，他个人认为是比较持久的。好公司它自带的基因，基因在短期内是无法被复制的。\n而且陈李特别强调的是，好公司如果对于行业有1%的竞争优势，给足够长的时间，竞争优势会扩到非常大。\n他认为，稍微看长一点，优秀的企业在中长期的一点点的进步都会发生非常大的力量，所以这个意义上来说，行业里的龙头还是最重要的策略。\n经济不差\n对于接下来半年到1年经济情况，郭磊认为全年没有经济压力，张瑜则认为经济参差不齐。\n具体来说，郭磊表示，首先，经济不会一直加速；第二，下半年经济也不会太差，他判断全年没有经济压力。主要是基于三个方面的因素能为经济提供支撑。\n第一个因素就是出口。随着海外疫苗的推进，海外的消费会带来订单的上升。所以出口是今年整个经济很重要的带动因素之一。\n第二个是房地产。第三个原因是财政整体呈现后置特征。\n如果说亮点，郭磊提示了两个方面。\n一是他认为如果三季度大宗商品的价格斜率下去，制造业的成本端在很大程度上还是会得到解放的。\n另外，去年中国的出口大量的产品是比较偏“宅”的，今年随着海外疫苗接种的推进，他觉得出行社交一些需求会逐渐上来。\n张瑜认为今年宏观经济会处在参差不齐，有上有下的状态。整个下半年，她看好以下方向：其中一是制造业向上，但是它向上的斜率非常缓和；二是服务业的修复。\n市场有结构性的机会\n对于未来半年到一年的A股市场，陈果、王胜、陈李谈到了自己的观点。\n陈果认为，站在这个时间点，未来半年到一年，A股应该不是单边市。\n未来他觉得海外因素会影响A股的波动。但A股内生有一些支持。A股市场可能会略微向上，但总体来说还是宽幅震荡。\n陈果还表示，国内基本面没有太大的系统性风险的问题，甚至有些因素还是比较有利的，就是整个政策组合更理性。\n另外他还表示，居民的资产配置的趋势现在看起来还是比较明确，整个基民的行为也比以前也理性，不会去放大市场的波动，可能有利于市场估值中枢的稳定。所以他相信未来的半年到一年依然还难免高波动，但是重心会略上。\n王胜则提醒，今年下半年要关注信用环境阶段性的变化。\n他认为在三季度有一些前期涨幅比较大的东西，经过了反弹之后，可能还有再次下行的动力。\n同时，他们的债券团队认为在信用风险溢价这么低的位置上、期限利差这么高的位置上，在目前整个利率的时间周期以及幅度都没走完的基础上，债券调整仍未结束。\n所以他认为利率再次上行，是下半年值得关注的结构性问题。\n今年全年他认为像2010年。指数后续有波动，但是市场一直有结构性的机会。\n陈李补充了一些关于外部风险和内部正面因素的信息。\n他谈到，外部风险当然有宏观因素。但如果微观来观察，会发现美国股市目前个人投资者的参与热情，杠杆和情绪（非常高）。\n美国个人投资者是不能打新股的，现在所以有很多信托凑钱打新；美国一些股票是很贵的，存在几个人凑一块买的情况。有一段时间，他在美国的朋友，有一半的人都在交易各种加密货币。这种个人投资者的参与的热情和杠杆是很让他担心的。\n至于内部产生正面的因素，他觉得财政和货币都比较积极的，对股市是积极的信号，包括经济的回升和企业盈利的增长。\n第三，他重申一下关于制造业的问题。他觉得整体的国家发展战略在过去的两年有重大的转变。现在注意到必须通过制造业才能够实现经济的增长、质量和发展，因为毕竟去年抗击疫情主要依赖的就是工业体系的完整。\n他认为，未来10年方向都在制造业。过去5年到7年，最热爱的都是零售、互联网、商业模式创新。未来的5年，他想热爱的可能是硬科技。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1811,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}