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SIONG
2021-05-22

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The commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?

分析指出，大宗商品的牛市肯定还没有结束。在此前大涨后，本周农作物、石油和金属等大宗商品都出现下跌。通胀担忧、美联储可能收紧宽松政策的预期以及国内监管层的警告，都让投资者深深捏了把汗。不过分析指出，今年大宗商品价格飙升背后的许多原因，以及有关新超级周期的争论，仍然没有改变。“我坚定地认为，目前只是大宗商品的暂歇期。任何令人失望的数据或不利因素总会引起获利了结的抛售，我认为整个行业仍有上行空间。”

The commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?

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Commodities such as crops, oil and metals all fell this week after previous surges. Inflation concerns, expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten easing policy, and warnings from domestic regulators have all made investors sweat deeply.</p><p>However, the analysis pointed out that many of the reasons behind the surge in commodity prices this year, as well as the debate about the new super cycle, remain unchanged.</p><p>Eric Liu, head of trading at Chinese copper trader ASK Resources Ltd., said:</p><p>\"The bull market for commodities is definitely not over. Every country is struggling with rising inflation, but as long as they don't tighten monetary and fiscal policy, it will be difficult for commodity price gains to cool down.\" With the launch of COVID-19 vaccine, important economies around the world have rebounded. While supplies remain tight, demand for metals, food and energy is increasing, and a range of commodity markets, including petroleum timber, are tightening.</p><p>The supply crunch trend is likely to intensify in the U.S. and Europe in the coming months as more people go out, travel by road, fly, attend summer barbecue parties, and more. In addition, China is also increasing imports of soybeans and corn, indicating that its demand is increasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018880b9d089ce4fbfbd13aac3210bb8\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A tough long-term outlook for infrastructure spending and a faster transition to electric vehicles, batteries have also pushed up commodity prices.</p><p>On Thursday, the market was more stable than before. Copper futures rebounded from the previous day's plunge on market forecasts that copper demand will remain resilient even if the Federal Reserve tapers asset purchases or China steps up efforts to drive down prices. Corn futures in Chicago also rose, driven by an ongoing buying rush.</p><p>In contrast,<b>Crude oil futures fell widened due to expectations of the end of export sanctions against Iran and an increase in Iranian crude oil supply. COVID-19 pandemic continues to curb Indian demand.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of futures at Mizuho Securities, said the Bloomberg Commodity Index could still exceed its 2011 record high in the coming months as the U.S. economy opens up further, although inflationary pressures could limit its upside.</p><p>The supervisor said in an interview:</p><p>\"People want to go out, which will bring huge buying opportunities to the market. In addition, the weaker US dollar may also be a catalyst for rising commodity prices, because most raw materials are denominated in US dollars. Due to the upcoming driving and aviation season, WTI crude oil may climb to $70 a barrel in the coming months.\" Separately, crops in the U.S., as well as Brazil and Argentina, need almost perfect weather to meet global demand this summer, so any inclement weather could send prices to spike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cee9704758312cba55b03c02098909e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Metals benefited from rapid replenishment in manufacturing supply chains and the prospect of green consumption in the next few years, driving the economic bellwether-copper exceeded $10,700 a ton earlier this month. Whether its price will continue to move higher depends in part on how aware the market is of infrastructure spending and how long loose monetary policy will last.</p><p>Wall Street has already shown optimism about the outlook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Copper prices are expected to exceed $12,000 in the coming months. In addition, major copper traders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLEN.UK\">Glencore</a>(Glencore Plc) and Trafigura said copper prices could rise sharply to stimulate enough supply to meet future demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles.</p><p>ANZ strategist Daniel Hines said:</p><p>\"I firmly believe that this is just a break for commodities. Any disappointing data or headwinds will always lead to a profit-taking sell-off, and I think there is still room for upside in the whole industry.\"</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 23:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The analysis pointed out that the bull market for commodities is definitely not over yet. Commodities such as crops, oil and metals all fell this week after previous surges. Inflation concerns, expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten easing policy, and warnings from domestic regulators have all made investors sweat deeply.</p><p>However, the analysis pointed out that many of the reasons behind the surge in commodity prices this year, as well as the debate about the new super cycle, remain unchanged.</p><p>Eric Liu, head of trading at Chinese copper trader ASK Resources Ltd., said:</p><p>\"The bull market for commodities is definitely not over. Every country is struggling with rising inflation, but as long as they don't tighten monetary and fiscal policy, it will be difficult for commodity price gains to cool down.\" With the launch of COVID-19 vaccine, important economies around the world have rebounded. While supplies remain tight, demand for metals, food and energy is increasing, and a range of commodity markets, including petroleum timber, are tightening.</p><p>The supply crunch trend is likely to intensify in the U.S. and Europe in the coming months as more people go out, travel by road, fly, attend summer barbecue parties, and more. In addition, China is also increasing imports of soybeans and corn, indicating that its demand is increasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018880b9d089ce4fbfbd13aac3210bb8\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A tough long-term outlook for infrastructure spending and a faster transition to electric vehicles, batteries have also pushed up commodity prices.</p><p>On Thursday, the market was more stable than before. Copper futures rebounded from the previous day's plunge on market forecasts that copper demand will remain resilient even if the Federal Reserve tapers asset purchases or China steps up efforts to drive down prices. Corn futures in Chicago also rose, driven by an ongoing buying rush.</p><p>In contrast,<b>Crude oil futures fell widened due to expectations of the end of export sanctions against Iran and an increase in Iranian crude oil supply. COVID-19 pandemic continues to curb Indian demand.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of futures at Mizuho Securities, said the Bloomberg Commodity Index could still exceed its 2011 record high in the coming months as the U.S. economy opens up further, although inflationary pressures could limit its upside.</p><p>The supervisor said in an interview:</p><p>\"People want to go out, which will bring huge buying opportunities to the market. In addition, the weaker US dollar may also be a catalyst for rising commodity prices, because most raw materials are denominated in US dollars. Due to the upcoming driving and aviation season, WTI crude oil may climb to $70 a barrel in the coming months.\" Separately, crops in the U.S., as well as Brazil and Argentina, need almost perfect weather to meet global demand this summer, so any inclement weather could send prices to spike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cee9704758312cba55b03c02098909e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Metals benefited from rapid replenishment in manufacturing supply chains and the prospect of green consumption in the next few years, driving the economic bellwether-copper exceeded $10,700 a ton earlier this month. Whether its price will continue to move higher depends in part on how aware the market is of infrastructure spending and how long loose monetary policy will last.</p><p>Wall Street has already shown optimism about the outlook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Copper prices are expected to exceed $12,000 in the coming months. In addition, major copper traders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLEN.UK\">Glencore</a>(Glencore Plc) and Trafigura said copper prices could rise sharply to stimulate enough supply to meet future demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles.</p><p>ANZ strategist Daniel Hines said:</p><p>\"I firmly believe that this is just a break for commodities. Any disappointing data or headwinds will always lead to a profit-taking sell-off, and I think there is still room for upside in the whole industry.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74903\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74903","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146484174","content_text":"分析指出，大宗商品的牛市肯定还没有结束。\n\n在此前大涨后，本周农作物、石油和金属等大宗商品都出现下跌。通胀担忧、美联储可能收紧宽松政策的预期以及国内监管层的警告，都让投资者深深捏了把汗。\n不过分析指出，今年大宗商品价格飙升背后的许多原因，以及有关新超级周期的争论，仍然没有改变。\n中国铜交易商ASK Resources Ltd.交易主管Eric Liu说：\n\n “大宗商品的牛市肯定还没有结束。每个国家都在与通胀上升作斗争，但只要他们不收紧货币和财政政策，大宗商品价格涨势很难降温。”\n\n随着新冠疫苗推出，全球重要经济体出现反弹。在供应仍然紧张的情况下，金属、食品和能源的需求不断增加，包括石油木材在内的一系列商品市场出现紧缩。\n未来几个月，随着更多人外出、自驾游、坐飞机、参加夏季烧烤聚会等等，供应紧缩的趋势在美国和欧洲可能会加剧。另外中国也在增加大豆和玉米的进口，说明其需求在增加。\n基础设施支出严峻的长期前景以及向电动汽车、电池的更快过渡同样推高了大宗商品价格。\n周四，市场行情较之前更加稳定。铜期货从前一天的暴跌中反弹，因为市场预测，即使美联储缩减购买资产规模，亦或是中国加大力度压低价格，铜需求仍将保持弹性。在持续不断的购买热潮推动下，芝加哥的玉米期货也上涨。\n相比之下，出于对伊朗出口制裁结束、伊朗原油供应增加的预期，原油期货跌幅扩大。新冠疫情继续抑制印度的需求。\n瑞穗证券期货部门主管Bob Yawger表示，随着美国经济进一步开放，彭博大宗商品指数在未来几个月仍可能超过2011年的纪录高位，尽管通胀压力可能会限制其上行幅度。\n这位主管在接受采访时称：\n\n “人们都想外出，这将给市场带来巨大的买机。此外，美元走软可能也是大宗商品价格上涨的催化剂，因为多数原材料都是以美元计价的。由于驾车出行和航空旺季即将到来，WTI原油可能在未来几个月攀升至每桶70美元。”\n\n另外，今年夏天，美国以及巴西和阿根廷的农作物需要几乎完美的天气才能满足全球需求，因此任何恶劣天气都可能导致价格飙升。\n金属受益于制造业供应链的快速补给以及未来几年的绿色消费前景，推动了经济风向标——铜本月稍早突破每吨1.07万美元。其价格是否会继续走高，在一定程度上取决于市场对基础设施支出的认识程度，以及宽松的货币政策将持续多久。\n华尔街已经对该前景表现出乐观情绪，花旗预计铜价将在未来几个月突破1.2万美元。此外，铜主要交易商嘉能可（Glencore Plc）和托克（Trafigura）表示，铜价可能大幅上涨，以刺激足够的供应，从而满足未来可再生能源和电动汽车的需求。\n澳新银行策略师丹尼尔·海因斯表示：\n\n “我坚定地认为，目前只是大宗商品的暂歇期。任何令人失望的数据或不利因素总会引起获利了结的抛售，我认为整个行业仍有上行空间。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":0.9,"000979.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1484,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}