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2021-07-07

"Suffering Index" Omens Gold and U.S. Stock Trends: One Up, One Down

苦难指数是通货膨胀率和失业率的总和，一直跟美国股票与黄金价格的比率高度相关。

"Suffering Index" Omens Gold and U.S. Stock Trends: One Up, One Down

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":140414095,"tweetId":"140414095","gmtCreate":1625668609817,"gmtModify":1703746118238,"author":{"id":3584243309772452,"idStr":"3584243309772452","authorId":3584243309772452,"authorIdStr":"3584243309772452","name":"旋舞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac3b3bfee0d8a9e48fb5d7fb51a3a0a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140414095","repostId":1151513622,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151513622","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625663183,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151513622?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:06","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"\"Suffering Index\" Omens Gold and U.S. Stock Trends: One Up, One Down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151513622","media":"金十数据","summary":"苦难指数是通货膨胀率和失业率的总和，一直跟美国股票与黄金价格的比率高度相关。","content":"Stuart Allsopp Follow, formerly head of financial markets at Fitch Solutions with 15 years of global market analysis experience, said:\"According to the misery index, inflation and unemployment are rising right now, but the S&P 500 index is still at a multi-year high relative to gold. This is very similar to the precursors of previous U.S. recessions, so I expect the history of the Great Depression will repeat itself.\" What is the Misery Index?The misery index is the sum of inflation and unemployment rates, and has historically been highly correlated with the ratio of U.S. stocks to gold prices. The misery index is calculated by adding the inflation rate to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to produce a measure of how stagflated the economy is.Relative to the S&P 500 index,High inflation and high unemployment are beneficial to gold prices.The chart below shows the correlation between the Misery Index and the S&P 500/Gold ratio, with data dating back to the 1950s.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1104d2bb96784e45c39ad4557045384a\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The current S&P 500 index/gold ratio is close to twice what people expect. Stuart Allsopp Follow Represents:\"In the data of 1971, 1975 and 2000, we also saw such a big difference between the two indexes, which is much higher than the'reasonable 'level of suffering index.\" The chart below shows how overvalued the S&P 500/Gold ratio is relative to the Misery Index, versus the subsequent 10-year annual return ratio.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9258bfad74b1199cac2e171b3dccfa9d\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Stuart Allsopp Follow said that the relationship between stocks and the gold ratio is a tool often used to make investment decisions. He found a conclusion by studying trends:\"There is a lot of evidence that U.S. stocks will be losing money for a long time relative to the future trend of precious metals, especially as the misery index is likely to continue to rise. The only good news is that I expect gold to perform very well.\" In addition, analysts expect the United States to continue to pursue loose policies. One of the previous assumptions of the policy was that there was an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. That is, if the unemployment rate is high, it reflects the weakness of the economy, and loose monetary policy can reduce this weakness, but at the cost of enduring the rising inflation rate.Analysts believe that based on the current performance of the U.S. government, it can be expected that increasingly aggressive monetary and fiscal policies seem very likely to continue until more bad news arrives (such as further worsening inflation).But this could be a ticking time bomb that can be detonated at any moment.It is worth mentioning that Wells Fargo Securities also issued a warning recently, saying that the day of liquidation of technology stocks is expected to come soon, and U.S. stocks are expected to plummet by 12%, urging investors to take profits.","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Suffering Index\" Omens Gold and U.S. Stock Trends: One Up, One Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Suffering Index\" Omens Gold and U.S. Stock Trends: One Up, One Down\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n金十数据2021-07-07 21:06\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStuart Allsopp Follow, formerly head of financial markets at Fitch Solutions with 15 years of global market analysis experience, said:\"According to the misery index, inflation and unemployment are rising right now, but the S&P 500 index is still at a multi-year high relative to gold. This is very similar to the precursors of previous U.S. recessions, so I expect the history of the Great Depression will repeat itself.\" What is the Misery Index?The misery index is the sum of inflation and unemployment rates, and has historically been highly correlated with the ratio of U.S. stocks to gold prices. The misery index is calculated by adding the inflation rate to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to produce a measure of how stagflated the economy is.Relative to the S&P 500 index,High inflation and high unemployment are beneficial to gold prices.The chart below shows the correlation between the Misery Index and the S&P 500/Gold ratio, with data dating back to the 1950s.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1104d2bb96784e45c39ad4557045384a\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The current S&P 500 index/gold ratio is close to twice what people expect. Stuart Allsopp Follow Represents:\"In the data of 1971, 1975 and 2000, we also saw such a big difference between the two indexes, which is much higher than the'reasonable 'level of suffering index.\" The chart below shows how overvalued the S&P 500/Gold ratio is relative to the Misery Index, versus the subsequent 10-year annual return ratio.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9258bfad74b1199cac2e171b3dccfa9d\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Stuart Allsopp Follow said that the relationship between stocks and the gold ratio is a tool often used to make investment decisions. He found a conclusion by studying trends:\"There is a lot of evidence that U.S. stocks will be losing money for a long time relative to the future trend of precious metals, especially as the misery index is likely to continue to rise. The only good news is that I expect gold to perform very well.\" In addition, analysts expect the United States to continue to pursue loose policies. One of the previous assumptions of the policy was that there was an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. That is, if the unemployment rate is high, it reflects the weakness of the economy, and loose monetary policy can reduce this weakness, but at the cost of enduring the rising inflation rate.Analysts believe that based on the current performance of the U.S. government, it can be expected that increasingly aggressive monetary and fiscal policies seem very likely to continue until more bad news arrives (such as further worsening inflation).But this could be a ticking time bomb that can be detonated at any moment.It is worth mentioning that Wells Fargo Securities also issued a warning recently, saying that the day of liquidation of technology stocks is expected to come soon, and U.S. stocks are expected to plummet by 12%, urging investors to take profits.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/77333\">金十数据</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf9ac23bac84c629134c18540a11264a","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/77333","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151513622","content_text":"曾担任Fitch Solutions金融市场主管，拥有15年的全球市场分析经验的Stuart Allsopp Follow表示：\n\n “根据苦难指数来看，目前通胀水平以及失业率都在上升，但标准普尔500指数相对于黄金仍处于多年高位。这与美国前几次经济衰退的前兆非常相似，因此我预计经济大萧条历史会重演。”\n\n什么是苦难指数？\n苦难指数是通货膨胀率和失业率的总和，历史上一直跟美国股票与黄金价格的比率高度相关。苦难指数的计算方法是将通胀率与季节性调整的失业率相加，得出一个衡量经济滞胀程度的指标。\n相对于标准普尔500指数而言，高通胀和高失业率有利于黄金价格。\n下图显示了苦难指数与标准普尔500指数/黄金比率之间的相关性，数据可追溯到1950年代。\n\n目前的标准普尔500指数/黄金比率，已经接近人们所预期的两倍。Stuart Allsopp Follow表示：\n\n “我们在1971、1975和2000年的数据里，也曾看到两个指数之间存在如此大的差异，远高于苦难指数‘合理’的水平。”\n\n下图显示了标准普尔500指数/黄金比率相对于苦难指数的高估程度，与随后的10年年度回报比率。\n\nStuart Allsopp Follow表示，股票与黄金比率之间的关系是经常用来作投资决策的工具，他通过研究趋势发现一个结论：\n\n “有很多证据表明美国股票相对于贵金属的未来走势来说，将是长期亏损的，特别是在苦难指数可能会继续上升的情况下。唯一的好消息是，我预计黄金的表现将十分出色。”\n\n另外，分析师预计美国将继续推行宽松的政策。此前该政策的一个假设是，通货膨胀与失业率之间存在反比关系。即如果失业率很高，反映了经济的疲软，而宽松的货币政策可以降低这种疲软，但代价是得忍受持续上升的通胀率。\n分析师认为，根据美国政府目前的表现，可以预计在更多的坏消息到来前（例如通胀进一步恶化），越来越激进的货币和财政政策似乎极有可能继续下去。但这可能是一颗随时被引爆的定时炸弹。\n值得一提的是，近日富国证券也发出警告，称科技股清算的日子预计很快将到来，预计美股将大跌12%，敦促投资者获利了结。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GCmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}