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2021-06-15

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JPMorgan: More Signs Point to Sustained Recovery in Residential Market, Predicts Further 5% Price Rebound by End-2026

JPMorgan has released a research report stating that Hong Kong residential property prices have rebounded over 4% since their March 2025 trough. The bank observes increasing signs supporting a...

JPMorgan: More Signs Point to Sustained Recovery in Residential Market, Predicts Further 5% Price Rebound by End-2026

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The bank observes increasing signs supporting a...","content":"<p>JPMorgan has released a research report stating that Hong Kong residential property prices have rebounded over 4% since their March 2025 trough. The bank observes increasing signs supporting a sustained recovery in the housing market, including resilient stock market performance (historically showing strong correlation with property prices via wealth effects), pent-up demand driving consistently strong transaction volumes, banks raising property valuations, declining listing volumes in the secondary market, more transactions closing above valuation prices (fueling FOMO sentiment), expectations of further (at least modest) mortgage rate cuts, shrinking inventory levels, rising rents, sustained interest from mainland buyers (whose population is projected for structural growth), and financial sector recovery (Hong Kong's largest GDP contributor). Against this backdrop, the bank forecasts an additional ~5% price rebound by end-2026. While acknowledging persistent headwinds (e.g., potential price cuts by high-risk developers, elevated unemployment in certain sectors), JPMorgan believes positive factors will dominate near-term dynamics. However, its constructive outlook hinges on continued Hang Seng Index resilience, given the sentiment-driven nature of property markets - with a key downside risk being stock market crashes (though not the base case). Among Hong Kong developers, JPMorgan prefers SINO LAND (00083) (lower risk; secure 6% dividend yield), followed by HENDERSON LAND (00012) (higher 6.6% yield but with dividend cut risks). The bank would consider buying SHK PPT (00016) if shares retreat to ~HK$85.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: More Signs Point to Sustained Recovery in Residential Market, Predicts Further 5% Price Rebound by End-2026</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: More Signs Point to Sustained Recovery in Residential Market, Predicts Further 5% Price Rebound by End-2026\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036600163\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Stock News </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-03 16:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>JPMorgan has released a research report stating that Hong Kong residential property prices have rebounded over 4% since their March 2025 trough. The bank observes increasing signs supporting a sustained recovery in the housing market, including resilient stock market performance (historically showing strong correlation with property prices via wealth effects), pent-up demand driving consistently strong transaction volumes, banks raising property valuations, declining listing volumes in the secondary market, more transactions closing above valuation prices (fueling FOMO sentiment), expectations of further (at least modest) mortgage rate cuts, shrinking inventory levels, rising rents, sustained interest from mainland buyers (whose population is projected for structural growth), and financial sector recovery (Hong Kong's largest GDP contributor). Against this backdrop, the bank forecasts an additional ~5% price rebound by end-2026. While acknowledging persistent headwinds (e.g., potential price cuts by high-risk developers, elevated unemployment in certain sectors), JPMorgan believes positive factors will dominate near-term dynamics. However, its constructive outlook hinges on continued Hang Seng Index resilience, given the sentiment-driven nature of property markets - with a key downside risk being stock market crashes (though not the base case). Among Hong Kong developers, JPMorgan prefers SINO LAND (00083) (lower risk; secure 6% dividend yield), followed by HENDERSON LAND (00012) (higher 6.6% yield but with dividend cut risks). The bank would consider buying SHK PPT (00016) if shares retreat to ~HK$85.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"80016":"新鸿基地产-R","BK1240":"房地产开发","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU2088748020.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIA REAL ESTATE MULTI ASSE \"ADM\" (USD) INC A","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","SUHJY":"新鸿基地产ADR","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A5\" (USD) INC","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","SG9999010052.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Real Estate Income Dis SGD","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD)  INC AV","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","00083":"信和置业","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2088748376.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - 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The bank observes increasing signs supporting a sustained recovery in the housing market, including resilient stock market performance (historically showing strong correlation with property prices via wealth effects), pent-up demand driving consistently strong transaction volumes, banks raising property valuations, declining listing volumes in the secondary market, more transactions closing above valuation prices (fueling FOMO sentiment), expectations of further (at least modest) mortgage rate cuts, shrinking inventory levels, rising rents, sustained interest from mainland buyers (whose population is projected for structural growth), and financial sector recovery (Hong Kong's largest GDP contributor). Against this backdrop, the bank forecasts an additional ~5% price rebound by end-2026. While acknowledging persistent headwinds (e.g., potential price cuts by high-risk developers, elevated unemployment in certain sectors), JPMorgan believes positive factors will dominate near-term dynamics. However, its constructive outlook hinges on continued Hang Seng Index resilience, given the sentiment-driven nature of property markets - with a key downside risk being stock market crashes (though not the base case). Among Hong Kong developers, JPMorgan prefers SINO LAND (00083) (lower risk; secure 6% dividend yield), followed by HENDERSON LAND (00012) (higher 6.6% yield but with dividend cut risks). The bank would consider buying SHK PPT (00016) if shares retreat to ~HK$85.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"80016":1,"00083":1,"00016":1,"03145":1,"00012":1,"SUHJY":1,"03121":1,"JPM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2113,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}