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Awesomebyc
2021-06-21

The first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?

奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股1

The first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":164202157,"tweetId":"164202157","gmtCreate":1624205063979,"gmtModify":1703830624909,"author":{"id":3562144044247952,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorId":3562144044247952,"authorIdStr":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>1</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>1</body></html>","text":"1","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164202157","repostId":2144706272,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144706272","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624242918,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144706272?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144706272","media":"格隆汇","summary":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股1","content":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's tea</a>The announcement stated that the company will issue an IPO from June 18 to June 23, 2021, and plans to sell 257 million shares globally, of which the Hong Kong public offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and a 15% over-allotment option is attached. Admission fee is HK $9999.8. The offering price is HK $17.2-HK $19.8 per share, and Nayuki's Tea is expected to receive net proceeds from the global offering of HK $4.842 billion.As the first stock of new tea drinks, the capital market's pursuit of Nayuki is foreseeable. However, in addition to the fever, we still roughly estimate how much Nayuki's tea should be worth, so as to have an anchor in market fluctuations.There are three main factors that affect the company's valuation, one is growth, the other is industry structure, and the other is the company's competitiveness. The former is related to how fast a company can become bigger. The faster it grows, the higher the valuation will naturally be. The latter two are related to sustainability. Let's discuss Nayuki in these three points.Let's talk about growth first. Growth can be divided into two points. One is the growth of the industry, and the other is the growth of the company itself. The former will help the latter.Naixue's field is freshly made tea drinks, which can be divided into high-end (average price above 20 yuan), mid-end (average price 10-20 yuan), and low-end (average price below 10 yuan) according to the price band.In China's tea market, judging from the situation in the past five years, the fastest growth rate is freshly made tea.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Among freshly-made tea drinks, the best growth is high-end freshly-made tea drinks. The compound annual growth rate from 2015 to 2020 is as high as 75.8%, and the industry scale has reached 12.9 billion yuan. This growth is in line with our cognition, because we have witnessed the popularity of Naixue in recent years. According to the report of Zhuochi Consulting, high-end tea drinks will continue to grow at a high rate from 2020 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this way, Naixue is on a high-growth track. What about Nayuki's own growth?In 2015, Naixue opened its first store in Shenzhen. By the end of 2020, the number of Naixue tea stores reached 491, and as of the last executable date of the prospectus, it reached 562. The number of Nayuki tea stores at the end of 2018 and 2019 was 155 and 327 respectively.When a store is invested, it is not only a demand flow point, but also a production capacity point. Therefore, with the expansion of the store network, Nayuki's revenue has skyrocketed. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of all Nayuki's tea stores will be 909 million, 2.291 billion, and 2.871 billion respectively. The year-on-year growth rates in 2019 and 2020 will be 152% respectively.% and 25%.The future growth of Nayuki's tea mainly depends on the continuous expansion of stores. Where may the ceiling of the number of stores be?A way we can look at<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>, Starbucks has 5,000 stores in China. The positioning of Nayuki's tea products is somewhat similar to Starbucks, so we can also say that Nayuki's tea potential space can be 5,000.From the current point of view, Nayuki's tea has settled in more than 70 [1] cities, of which Shenzhen has the largest number of stores, with 91 stores, and the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, have 22, 33, and 24 stores respectively. These cities are similar in size to Shenzhen, and consumers have strong demand for high-end freshly made tea drinks. In Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the penetration rate of Nayuki's tea in other cities is even lower, and it is still blank in many cities (Starbucks has settled in 230 cities in China, China has 4 municipalities directly under the Central Government, and 293 prefecture-level cities). From this perspective, Nayuki's tea store space can be 5,000 or even higher.From another perspective, Naixue generally likes to open in bustling business districts. There are 476 domestic first-tier cities, 1,431 second-tier cities, and 2,020 third-tier and below business districts, totaling 3,927. From this perspective, Nayuki's tea shop space can be thousands.So in terms of growth, Nayuki is good.But growth is just an assumption, and the reality is not a vacuum environment. Nayuki's tea family comes alone. We turn to the industry structure and Naixue's competitiveness.In terms of industry structure, the current market concentration of high-end ready-made tea drinks is relatively high. According to data from China Insights Consulting, the high-end ready-made tea brand CR5 has a market share of 55%, of which Naixue has a market share of 18.9%, which is significantly higher than other competing products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After several years of development in this industry, the market share advantage of leading brands is now very obvious.Where are the competitive barriers for high-end tea drinks?Personally, it can be divided into three points, one is supply chain management, the other is standardized output, and the third is brand power.Let's talk about supply chain management first. High-end freshly made tea drinks, the raw materials used include high-quality tea, fresh milk, fresh seasonal fruits, etc. For example, high-quality tea and fresh milk are fine, they have been relatively industrialized, and storage and transportation are relatively convenient, but for fresh fruits, the supply chain is much more complicated. How to ensure product quality and how to ensure storage to reduce losses are all troublesome. Taking Naixue as an example, the cost of materials accounts for about 34% of the revenue of ready-made tea drinks, of which 76% are raw materials, and the rest are packaging materials.It can be seen that fluctuations in raw material costs have a significant impact on the profit side. In terms of product form, high-end freshly-made tea drinks do not have many entry barriers, but it is difficult to control the supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Naixue can reach this share, and its management and control in the supply chain should be ahead of its peers.Supply chain control will also affect the second competitiveness, standardized output. But in addition to the supply chain, there are other difficulties in the standardized output of high-end tea drinks.The coffee making process is simple and can be completed by a single person. High-end tea drinks are relatively complicated. Although the production process has a clear division of labor, it requires the participation of many people, and the processing of fresh fruits is relatively complicated. Nayuki also has on-site baking, and the process is also complicated, so the store is equipped with a large number of people.The average staffing of Nayuki's standard stores is 21 people. In October 2020, it will focus on promoting PRO stores that remove freshly made baking, with an average staffing of about 13 people.With many people and complex processes, training and management are difficult, which increases the difficulty of standardized output, but at the same time it also constitutes a barrier to competition.This is also one of the reasons why domestic high-end freshly made tea drinks are basically sold directly. The supply chain is complicated, the process is complicated, and it is easy to mess around due to the liberalization of franchises, driven by huge interests.The third point is brand power. In fact, I personally think this is important, but it is not that important. In today's society, brand power is of course important, but it doesn't seem too difficult to build an online celebrity brand. Brand power can be icing on the cake, but the core is that the first two internal forces must be hard.Naixue has now become the leader in the industry, and these three points of competitiveness should be passed.One thing investors may be worried about is Naixue's operating costs. Dismantling the cost, a notable feature of Naixue, Starbucks in the early days, and catering companies in Hong Kong stocks today is the high rental cost. Naixue's rental cost is 15 points, Starbucks' early stage is more than 4 points, and in Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>More than 8 points,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Around 10 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is mainly related to Naixue opening a large store in a bustling business district. However, the company's store-level profitability is not bad, with an operating profit margin of 16.3% in 2019 and 12.2% in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As long as the store level is profitable, as the scale expands, more headquarters expenses can be amortized, thereby improving profitability. In addition, Naixue's operating costs will continue to decline in the future. This is due to the supply chain advantages of expanded scale, and the other is the rent bargaining power of improved brand power. In addition, expanding to lower-tier cities will also reduce rental costs, because the rental costs in lower-tier cities are relatively lower.So how should Naixue value it?From the above analysis, we can know that Naixue's business model and growth are close to those of Starbucks in the early days, and Taier, which is currently owned by Hong Kong stock Jiumaojiu. Let's compare the early Starbucks and the current valuation of restaurant stocks in Hong Kong.Starbucks went public in June 1992. At the beginning of its listing, its market value was about US $14 million, its dynamic PE was about 53 times, and its price-to-sales ratio was 2.2 times. The number of stores that year was 165. Due to the very good growth, the valuation in 1992 and 1993 was basically maintained at around 80 times, with the highest reaching over 100 times, and the price-to-sales ratio was about 4 times to 6 times.Hong Kong's Haidilao and Jiumaojiu, the current market value corresponds to the net profit valuation of hundreds of times in 2020, respectively. Of course, this is related to the relatively large damage to the profit side of catering companies in 2020. According to the estimated profit of securities firms in 2021, They are 35 times and 70 times respectively. If we look at the net profit in 2019, they are 73 times and 216 times respectively. Looking at the price-to-sales ratio, it corresponds to 2020, which is 6 times and 13 times respectively, and the consensus expectation of securities firms for 2021 is 3.13 times and 6.8 times respectively.Compared with Starbucks back then, Hong Kong's valuation of Haidilao and Jiumaojiu is quite exaggerated.Naixue is still in a period of rapid growth, and we use PS for valuation. If estimated according to the standards of Starbucks' listing that year, Naixue's total revenue in 2020 will be 3 billion, and based on 4-6 times PS, it will be between 12 billion and 18 billion.Of course, as we said, the valuation of Starbucks in 1992 was obviously very conservative. Compared with the huge increase later, investors who got it with this valuation were really happy. Haidilao already has a large number of stores, and in this period of rapid growth, it will be more appropriate to use Jiumaojiu. Naixue is close to Taier's logic.Because half of 2021 is now over, it may be more appropriate to use the forecast revenue estimate in 2021. Jiumaojiu is 6.8 times, and Naixue's estimated revenue in 2021 is 5.5-5.8 billion. If you give 6-7 times PS, it will be between 44 billion and 46 billion Hong Kong dollars.Based on the offering price, Naixue is now 29.5-34 billion Hong Kong dollars, and there is still a lot of room.","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2021-06-21 10:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's tea</a>The announcement stated that the company will issue an IPO from June 18 to June 23, 2021, and plans to sell 257 million shares globally, of which the Hong Kong public offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and a 15% over-allotment option is attached. Admission fee is HK $9999.8. The offering price is HK $17.2-HK $19.8 per share, and Nayuki's Tea is expected to receive net proceeds from the global offering of HK $4.842 billion.As the first stock of new tea drinks, the capital market's pursuit of Nayuki is foreseeable. However, in addition to the fever, we still roughly estimate how much Nayuki's tea should be worth, so as to have an anchor in market fluctuations.There are three main factors that affect the company's valuation, one is growth, the other is industry structure, and the other is the company's competitiveness. The former is related to how fast a company can become bigger. The faster it grows, the higher the valuation will naturally be. The latter two are related to sustainability. Let's discuss Nayuki in these three points.Let's talk about growth first. Growth can be divided into two points. One is the growth of the industry, and the other is the growth of the company itself. The former will help the latter.Naixue's field is freshly made tea drinks, which can be divided into high-end (average price above 20 yuan), mid-end (average price 10-20 yuan), and low-end (average price below 10 yuan) according to the price band.In China's tea market, judging from the situation in the past five years, the fastest growth rate is freshly made tea.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Among freshly-made tea drinks, the best growth is high-end freshly-made tea drinks. The compound annual growth rate from 2015 to 2020 is as high as 75.8%, and the industry scale has reached 12.9 billion yuan. This growth is in line with our cognition, because we have witnessed the popularity of Naixue in recent years. According to the report of Zhuochi Consulting, high-end tea drinks will continue to grow at a high rate from 2020 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this way, Naixue is on a high-growth track. What about Nayuki's own growth?In 2015, Naixue opened its first store in Shenzhen. By the end of 2020, the number of Naixue tea stores reached 491, and as of the last executable date of the prospectus, it reached 562. The number of Nayuki tea stores at the end of 2018 and 2019 was 155 and 327 respectively.When a store is invested, it is not only a demand flow point, but also a production capacity point. Therefore, with the expansion of the store network, Nayuki's revenue has skyrocketed. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of all Nayuki's tea stores will be 909 million, 2.291 billion, and 2.871 billion respectively. The year-on-year growth rates in 2019 and 2020 will be 152% respectively.% and 25%.The future growth of Nayuki's tea mainly depends on the continuous expansion of stores. Where may the ceiling of the number of stores be?A way we can look at<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>, Starbucks has 5,000 stores in China. The positioning of Nayuki's tea products is somewhat similar to Starbucks, so we can also say that Nayuki's tea potential space can be 5,000.From the current point of view, Nayuki's tea has settled in more than 70 [1] cities, of which Shenzhen has the largest number of stores, with 91 stores, and the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, have 22, 33, and 24 stores respectively. These cities are similar in size to Shenzhen, and consumers have strong demand for high-end freshly made tea drinks. In Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the penetration rate of Nayuki's tea in other cities is even lower, and it is still blank in many cities (Starbucks has settled in 230 cities in China, China has 4 municipalities directly under the Central Government, and 293 prefecture-level cities). From this perspective, Nayuki's tea store space can be 5,000 or even higher.From another perspective, Naixue generally likes to open in bustling business districts. There are 476 domestic first-tier cities, 1,431 second-tier cities, and 2,020 third-tier and below business districts, totaling 3,927. From this perspective, Nayuki's tea shop space can be thousands.So in terms of growth, Nayuki is good.But growth is just an assumption, and the reality is not a vacuum environment. Nayuki's tea family comes alone. We turn to the industry structure and Naixue's competitiveness.In terms of industry structure, the current market concentration of high-end ready-made tea drinks is relatively high. According to data from China Insights Consulting, the high-end ready-made tea brand CR5 has a market share of 55%, of which Naixue has a market share of 18.9%, which is significantly higher than other competing products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After several years of development in this industry, the market share advantage of leading brands is now very obvious.Where are the competitive barriers for high-end tea drinks?Personally, it can be divided into three points, one is supply chain management, the other is standardized output, and the third is brand power.Let's talk about supply chain management first. High-end freshly made tea drinks, the raw materials used include high-quality tea, fresh milk, fresh seasonal fruits, etc. For example, high-quality tea and fresh milk are fine, they have been relatively industrialized, and storage and transportation are relatively convenient, but for fresh fruits, the supply chain is much more complicated. How to ensure product quality and how to ensure storage to reduce losses are all troublesome. Taking Naixue as an example, the cost of materials accounts for about 34% of the revenue of ready-made tea drinks, of which 76% are raw materials, and the rest are packaging materials.It can be seen that fluctuations in raw material costs have a significant impact on the profit side. In terms of product form, high-end freshly-made tea drinks do not have many entry barriers, but it is difficult to control the supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Naixue can reach this share, and its management and control in the supply chain should be ahead of its peers.Supply chain control will also affect the second competitiveness, standardized output. But in addition to the supply chain, there are other difficulties in the standardized output of high-end tea drinks.The coffee making process is simple and can be completed by a single person. High-end tea drinks are relatively complicated. Although the production process has a clear division of labor, it requires the participation of many people, and the processing of fresh fruits is relatively complicated. Nayuki also has on-site baking, and the process is also complicated, so the store is equipped with a large number of people.The average staffing of Nayuki's standard stores is 21 people. In October 2020, it will focus on promoting PRO stores that remove freshly made baking, with an average staffing of about 13 people.With many people and complex processes, training and management are difficult, which increases the difficulty of standardized output, but at the same time it also constitutes a barrier to competition.This is also one of the reasons why domestic high-end freshly made tea drinks are basically sold directly. The supply chain is complicated, the process is complicated, and it is easy to mess around due to the liberalization of franchises, driven by huge interests.The third point is brand power. In fact, I personally think this is important, but it is not that important. In today's society, brand power is of course important, but it doesn't seem too difficult to build an online celebrity brand. Brand power can be icing on the cake, but the core is that the first two internal forces must be hard.Naixue has now become the leader in the industry, and these three points of competitiveness should be passed.One thing investors may be worried about is Naixue's operating costs. Dismantling the cost, a notable feature of Naixue, Starbucks in the early days, and catering companies in Hong Kong stocks today is the high rental cost. Naixue's rental cost is 15 points, Starbucks' early stage is more than 4 points, and in Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>More than 8 points,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Around 10 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is mainly related to Naixue opening a large store in a bustling business district. However, the company's store-level profitability is not bad, with an operating profit margin of 16.3% in 2019 and 12.2% in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As long as the store level is profitable, as the scale expands, more headquarters expenses can be amortized, thereby improving profitability. In addition, Naixue's operating costs will continue to decline in the future. This is due to the supply chain advantages of expanded scale, and the other is the rent bargaining power of improved brand power. In addition, expanding to lower-tier cities will also reduce rental costs, because the rental costs in lower-tier cities are relatively lower.So how should Naixue value it?From the above analysis, we can know that Naixue's business model and growth are close to those of Starbucks in the early days, and Taier, which is currently owned by Hong Kong stock Jiumaojiu. Let's compare the early Starbucks and the current valuation of restaurant stocks in Hong Kong.Starbucks went public in June 1992. At the beginning of its listing, its market value was about US $14 million, its dynamic PE was about 53 times, and its price-to-sales ratio was 2.2 times. The number of stores that year was 165. Due to the very good growth, the valuation in 1992 and 1993 was basically maintained at around 80 times, with the highest reaching over 100 times, and the price-to-sales ratio was about 4 times to 6 times.Hong Kong's Haidilao and Jiumaojiu, the current market value corresponds to the net profit valuation of hundreds of times in 2020, respectively. Of course, this is related to the relatively large damage to the profit side of catering companies in 2020. According to the estimated profit of securities firms in 2021, They are 35 times and 70 times respectively. If we look at the net profit in 2019, they are 73 times and 216 times respectively. Looking at the price-to-sales ratio, it corresponds to 2020, which is 6 times and 13 times respectively, and the consensus expectation of securities firms for 2021 is 3.13 times and 6.8 times respectively.Compared with Starbucks back then, Hong Kong's valuation of Haidilao and Jiumaojiu is quite exaggerated.Naixue is still in a period of rapid growth, and we use PS for valuation. If estimated according to the standards of Starbucks' listing that year, Naixue's total revenue in 2020 will be 3 billion, and based on 4-6 times PS, it will be between 12 billion and 18 billion.Of course, as we said, the valuation of Starbucks in 1992 was obviously very conservative. Compared with the huge increase later, investors who got it with this valuation were really happy. Haidilao already has a large number of stores, and in this period of rapid growth, it will be more appropriate to use Jiumaojiu. Naixue is close to Taier's logic.Because half of 2021 is now over, it may be more appropriate to use the forecast revenue estimate in 2021. Jiumaojiu is 6.8 times, and Naixue's estimated revenue in 2021 is 5.5-5.8 billion. If you give 6-7 times PS, it will be between 44 billion and 46 billion Hong Kong dollars.Based on the offering price, Naixue is now 29.5-34 billion Hong Kong dollars, and there is still a lot of room.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f17df5f6c218834b209936ec178db28","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2144706272","content_text":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。\n作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场的波动中有个锚。\n影响公司估值的主要有三个方面的因素，一个是成长性，一个是行业格局，一个是公司的竞争力。前者关乎公司能以多快的速度变多大，越快成长自然给的估值越高，后面两个关乎可持续性。我们分这三点来讨论奈雪。\n先说成长性，成长性又可以分两点，一点是行业成长性，一点是公司自身的成长性，前者会为后者助力。\n奈雪所在的领域为现制茶饮，按价格带可以划分为高端(平均价格20以上)，中端(平均价格10-20)，低端(平均价格10元以下)，奈雪处在高端价格带。\n在中国茶饮市场，从过去5年的情况看，增长速度最快的是现制茶饮。而在现制茶饮里，增长最好的又是高端现制茶饮。2015年-2020年的年复合增长速度高达75.8%，行业规模达到了129亿人民币。这个成长符合我们的认知，因为这几年我们见证了奈雪的火爆。根据灼炽咨询的报告，2020年-2025年高端茶饮将继续延续高成长，年复合增速达32.2%。这样来讲，奈雪是踏在了一条高成长的赛道上。那奈雪自身的成长性呢？\n2015年奈雪在深圳开了第一间门店，到2020年底，奈雪的茶门店数量达491间，截至到招股书最后可执行日期达562间。2018年和2019年底的奈雪的茶门店数目则分别是155间和327间。\n一个店投下去，既是需求流量点，也是产能点。所以凭借门店网络的扩张，奈雪的营收扶摇直上，2018年-2020年所有奈雪的茶门店营收分别是9.09亿，22.91亿，28.71亿，2019年和2020年的同比增速分别是152%和25%。\n奈雪的茶未来成长性主要取决于门店的持续扩张，那门店数量的天花板可能在哪？\n一种我们可以看星巴克，星巴克在中国有5000家门店。奈雪的茶产品定位与星巴克有些类似，这样我们也可以说奈雪的茶潜在空间可以在5000家。\n从当前看，奈雪的茶一共入驻了70多[1] 个城市，其中深圳门店最多，91家，另外三家一线城市北京、上海、广州分别有22家、33家和24家。这些城市规模与深圳相似，消费者有对高端现制茶饮的强劲需求。在北上广如此，奈雪的茶在其他城市的渗透率就更低，在许多城市还是空白(星巴克入驻了中国230个城市，中国有4个直辖市，293个地级市)。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶开店空间是可以在5000家，甚至更高。\n从另一个角度看，奈雪一般喜欢开在繁华的商圈，这样的商圈，国内一线城市有476个，二线1431个，三线及以下2020个，共计3927个。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶门店空间是可以在在数千家。\n所以就成长性看，奈雪是不错的。\n但成长性只是一种设想，现实并非是真空环境，由奈雪的茶一家独来。我们转向看行业格局以及奈雪的竞争力。\n行业格局上，目前高端现制茶饮市场集中度相对较高。根据灼识咨询数据，高端现制茶饮品牌CR5市占率高达55%，其中奈雪的市占率为18.9%，显著高于其它竞品。这个行业经过几年的发展，现在头部品牌的市场份额优势非常明显。\n那高端茶饮的竞争壁垒在哪？\n个人来看，可以分三点，一是供应链管理，二是标准化输出，三是品牌力。\n先讲供应链管理。高端现制茶饮，用的原材料包括上乘茶叶、鲜奶、新鲜时令水果等。像上乘茶叶、鲜奶还好，已经比较工业化生产了，同时储存和运输相对方便，但新鲜水果上，供应链就要复杂得多。怎么保证产品质量，怎么保证储存减少损耗，都是麻烦。以奈雪为例，材料成本占现制茶饮营收比例为34%左右，其中76%是原材料，剩下是包装材料。\n这可以看到，原材料成本的波动对利润端的影响很显著。高端现制茶饮就产品形态来说，并没有多少进入门槛，但难在供应链管控上。奈雪能走到这个份额地步，在供应链上的管控应该是领先于同行的。\n供应链的管控也会影响到第二个竞争力，标准化输出。但除了供应链外，高端茶饮的标准化输出还有其它难点。\n咖啡的制作流程简单，单人操作就可以完成了。而高端茶饮相对要复杂，尽管制作流程分工明确，但需要多人参与，并且新鲜水果处理相对要复杂。奈雪还有现场烘焙，流程也复杂，所以门店配置的人员多。\n奈雪的标准门店平均人员配置是21人，2020年10月开始主推去掉现制烘焙的PRO店，平均人员配置大概13人。\n人多，流程复杂，培训和管理难度就大，这就增加了标准化输出的难度，但同时也构成了竞争壁垒。\n这也是国内高端现制茶饮基本走直营的原因之一。供应链复杂，流程复杂，放开加盟，巨大的利益驱使，容易乱来。\n第三点就是品牌力，其实我个人觉得这点重要，但也不是那么重要。现在这个社会，品牌力当然重要，但打造一个网红品牌似乎也不是太难。品牌力可以锦上添花，但核心还是前面两个内力要硬。\n奈雪现在做到了行业龙头，这三点竞争力应该是过关的。\n有一点投资者可能比较担心，就是奈雪的运营成本。把成本拆解一下，奈雪跟早期星巴克，跟现在港股的餐饮企业，一个显著的特点是租金成本高。奈雪的租金成本15个点，星巴克早期4个多点，港股里的海底捞8个多点，九毛九10个点左右。这主要跟奈雪开大店，开在繁华商圈有关。不过，公司门店层面的盈利能力是还不错的，经营利润率2019年有16.3%，2020年受疫情影响也有12.2%。只要门店层面是盈利的，随着规模扩大，可以摊销更多的总部费用，从而提高盈利能力。另外，奈雪未来的运营成本也会继续下降，这一是来源于规模扩大的供应链优势，二是品牌力提升的租金议价能力。另外，向低线城市扩张也会降低租金成本，因为更低线城市的租金成本相对来说要低些。\n那奈雪到底该怎么给估值呢？\n从上面的分析可以知道，奈雪的商业模式和成长性接近早期的星巴克，当前港股九毛九旗下的太二。我们比较下早期的星巴克和当前香港的餐饮股估值。\n星巴克1992年6月上市，上市之初市值大概0.14亿美元，动态PE大概53倍，市销率2.2倍。当年门店数量165家，由于非常好的成长性，1992年和1993年估值基本维持在80倍上下，最高到过100倍，市销率大概在4倍到6倍之间。\n香港的海底捞和九毛九，当前的市值对应2020年的净利润估值分别是数百倍，当然这跟2020年餐饮企业利润端破坏比较大有关，按券商对2021年的预计利润看，分别是35倍和70倍。如果以2019年的净利润看，分别是73倍和216倍。看市销率的话，对应2020年，分别是6倍和13倍，对就券商的2021年一致预期，分别是3.13倍和6.8倍。\n相比当年的星巴克，香港给海底捞和九毛九的估值是比较夸张的。\n奈雪现在仍处于高速成长期，我们用PS进行估值。如果按星巴克当年上市的标准来估，2020年奈雪的总营收是30亿，按4倍-6倍的PS，大概是120亿-180亿之间。\n当然，我们说过了，1992年星巴克的估值明显给的非常保守，相比后面的巨大涨幅，用这个估值拿到的投资人真是太幸福。海底捞的门店数量已经很多，也这了快速成长期，用九毛九会更合适，奈雪接近太二的逻辑。\n因为现在2021年已经要过去一半，用2021年的预测营收估可能更合适。九毛九是6.8倍，奈雪2021年的预计营收是55-58亿，给6倍-7倍PS的话，大概是440亿-460亿港币之间。\n按招股价算，奈雪现在是295-340亿港币，还是有很大空间的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2640,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4916323,"commentId":"4916323","gmtCreate":1624212059399,"gmtModify":1663229525443,"authorId":3581987432905129,"author":{"id":3581987432905129,"idStr":"3581987432905129","authorId":3581987432905129,"name":"持仓坚赞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3a4e9baafbb73e84285526f19d430d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":164202157,"objectIdStr":"164202157","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"666","text":"666","html":"666","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}