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Thean1977
2021-06-20

The market actually went like this after the resolution! Has the Fed thought of it?

德银首席外汇策略师George Saravelos认为，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误，市场表明了对中性利率r*的极度悲观态度。

The market actually went like this after the resolution! Has the Fed thought of it?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":164383180,"tweetId":"164383180","gmtCreate":1624171737840,"gmtModify":1703830124751,"author":{"id":3581037954444712,"idStr":"3581037954444712","authorId":3581037954444712,"authorIdStr":"3581037954444712","name":"Thean1977","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/830bf68efd61f42b5606a15057d3dd49","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>OK</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>OK</p></body></html>","text":"OK","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164383180","repostId":2144709321,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144709321","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624167977,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144709321?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 13:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The market actually went like this after the resolution! Has the Fed thought of it?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144709321","media":"智通财经网","summary":"德银首席外汇策略师George Saravelos认为，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误，市场表明了对中性利率r*的极度悲观态度。","content":"<p>The market performance after the Fed's decision is extraordinary from any angle: the US Dollar Index has recorded its biggest single-day increase since the new crown epidemic swept the world in March last year, long-term U.S. bond yields have fallen to their lowest since February, and some commodity prices have fallen to a new low since March last year, but the Nasdaq index has hit a record high.</p><p>Why did the market perform so unexpectedly?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos said in the report that the Fed made a major policy mistake, as can be seen from the flattening of the yield curve. And this comes down to the market's extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r *, \"in other words, this is the same argument we predicted six years ago that the Fed's rate hike cycle would end in disaster.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531c16b22c4764b6f441ed19bd04fd96\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why is there such an unexpected trend in the market? Deutsche Bank analysts gave analysis one by one:</p><p>The dollar's surge: The performance of the dollar's surge is completely in line with the traditional view, that is, the front-end real interest rate has the greatest impact on the the US Dollar Index. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in 2023 have been repriced, supporting the recent strength of the dollar. Even if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield does not hit a new high, it is not surprising that the US Dollar Index has rebounded strongly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55140d5c720ec904810eff37a21a9a99\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity plunge: The Fed's role in pushing up commodity prices should not be underestimated, perhaps as we can see from the current very high correlation between the US dollar and base metal prices. Deutsche Bank's previous report also showed that there was a strong correlation between the Fed's balance sheet, commodity prices and inflation expectations. The 2013 shrinking balance sheet also marked the peak of inflation expectations at that time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ddc2ef3dd4221af38423d4be2d5b54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A number of survey-based indicators, such as the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index, also show a high correlation between commodity prices and inflation expectations. The above arguments all show that the Fed's ability to influence inflation expectations through the US dollar and commodities far exceeds the imagination of ordinary people.</p><p>Finally, and most importantly, the bonds and neutral interest rate segments. As can be seen from the chart below, in the past 48 hours, the bond market has experienced obvious distortion flattening, which is unusual when the Federal Reserve has not even started its rate hike.</p><p>Repeating the Fed's rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2019, although the market's pricing of rate hike in 2023 and 2024 has risen, the yield after these two points in time has begun to decline, mainly because the market believes that the Fed can only do at most rate hike in less than two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9859d8bd5aaac81db8c1c1d9764e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This also coincides with a noticeable decline in inflation expectations. In fact, the Fed made a hawkish shift even before breakeven inflation reached the normal range level of 2014. And now the market has taken an extremely pessimistic view on the neutral rate r *.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9676f27f16093d1d7ed45606d48f0913\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, if the Fed decides to act early, then market voices say that the Fed cannot go far until inflation and growth reach their speed limits, which also leads to a decline in market expectations for interest rates after the Fed's first rate hike.</p><p>Other markets outside the bond market also reflect pessimism about the neutral interest rate r *. The huge demand for yields from global investors has driven the dollar stronger and produced a faster-than-expected disinflation impact. In other words, the global downturn in neutral interest rates has pushed the US neutral rate even lower.</p><p>The low neutral interest rate is consistent with the strengthening of the stock market, especially for growth stocks that rely heavily on the medium-term discount rate. The trend of U.S. stocks in the past two days has reflected a huge relative rotation from the Russell 2000 to the Nasdaq index, but Deutsche Bank analysts warned that this is actually version 2.0 of pricing that has been stagnant for a decade from 2010 to 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d22b5805d705bf59b246a7ea496732\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While a day or two of price performance doesn't constitute a trend, the odd signals from the market should not be ignored. Deutsche Bank analysts have emphasized in the past few weeks that there are still many issues to be resolved from a V-shaped recovery to a post-COVID stable state, including the structural damage left by COVID-19 pandemic to the private sector savings rate and the new equilibrium real interest rate level. Imagine the tragic situation of the economy without fiscal stimulus measures-without trillions of dollars of new fiscal stimulus measures every year, can the United States maintain a positive GDP growth rate? And what will happen to inflation if the Fed is forced to cut interest rates before the inflation fire goes out? These are all questions that the market will have to consider in the coming months.</p><p>The biggest question currently facing the Fed is whether it is possible to repeat the mistakes of 1937, when the Fed believed that the U.S. economy had improved and began to launch a rate hike, but the result was that the U.S. economy fell back into trouble, and ultimately it was massive fiscal reflation during World War II that saved everything.</p><p>But the question is, at present, the debt and deficit of the United States have risen to the level of World War II. Without war, how can the U.S. government justify the annual fiscal stimulus measures of several trillion dollars? When prices continue to rise in 2024 and the economy falls into recession again, how will the then Federal Reserve chairman fight inflation?</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market actually went like this after the resolution! 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Has the Fed thought of it?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-20 13:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The market performance after the Fed's decision is extraordinary from any angle: the US Dollar Index has recorded its biggest single-day increase since the new crown epidemic swept the world in March last year, long-term U.S. bond yields have fallen to their lowest since February, and some commodity prices have fallen to a new low since March last year, but the Nasdaq index has hit a record high.</p><p>Why did the market perform so unexpectedly?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos said in the report that the Fed made a major policy mistake, as can be seen from the flattening of the yield curve. And this comes down to the market's extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r *, \"in other words, this is the same argument we predicted six years ago that the Fed's rate hike cycle would end in disaster.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531c16b22c4764b6f441ed19bd04fd96\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why is there such an unexpected trend in the market? Deutsche Bank analysts gave analysis one by one:</p><p>The dollar's surge: The performance of the dollar's surge is completely in line with the traditional view, that is, the front-end real interest rate has the greatest impact on the the US Dollar Index. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in 2023 have been repriced, supporting the recent strength of the dollar. Even if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield does not hit a new high, it is not surprising that the US Dollar Index has rebounded strongly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55140d5c720ec904810eff37a21a9a99\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity plunge: The Fed's role in pushing up commodity prices should not be underestimated, perhaps as we can see from the current very high correlation between the US dollar and base metal prices. Deutsche Bank's previous report also showed that there was a strong correlation between the Fed's balance sheet, commodity prices and inflation expectations. The 2013 shrinking balance sheet also marked the peak of inflation expectations at that time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ddc2ef3dd4221af38423d4be2d5b54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A number of survey-based indicators, such as the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index, also show a high correlation between commodity prices and inflation expectations. The above arguments all show that the Fed's ability to influence inflation expectations through the US dollar and commodities far exceeds the imagination of ordinary people.</p><p>Finally, and most importantly, the bonds and neutral interest rate segments. As can be seen from the chart below, in the past 48 hours, the bond market has experienced obvious distortion flattening, which is unusual when the Federal Reserve has not even started its rate hike.</p><p>Repeating the Fed's rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2019, although the market's pricing of rate hike in 2023 and 2024 has risen, the yield after these two points in time has begun to decline, mainly because the market believes that the Fed can only do at most rate hike in less than two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9859d8bd5aaac81db8c1c1d9764e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This also coincides with a noticeable decline in inflation expectations. In fact, the Fed made a hawkish shift even before breakeven inflation reached the normal range level of 2014. And now the market has taken an extremely pessimistic view on the neutral rate r *.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9676f27f16093d1d7ed45606d48f0913\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, if the Fed decides to act early, then market voices say that the Fed cannot go far until inflation and growth reach their speed limits, which also leads to a decline in market expectations for interest rates after the Fed's first rate hike.</p><p>Other markets outside the bond market also reflect pessimism about the neutral interest rate r *. The huge demand for yields from global investors has driven the dollar stronger and produced a faster-than-expected disinflation impact. In other words, the global downturn in neutral interest rates has pushed the US neutral rate even lower.</p><p>The low neutral interest rate is consistent with the strengthening of the stock market, especially for growth stocks that rely heavily on the medium-term discount rate. The trend of U.S. stocks in the past two days has reflected a huge relative rotation from the Russell 2000 to the Nasdaq index, but Deutsche Bank analysts warned that this is actually version 2.0 of pricing that has been stagnant for a decade from 2010 to 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d22b5805d705bf59b246a7ea496732\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While a day or two of price performance doesn't constitute a trend, the odd signals from the market should not be ignored. Deutsche Bank analysts have emphasized in the past few weeks that there are still many issues to be resolved from a V-shaped recovery to a post-COVID stable state, including the structural damage left by COVID-19 pandemic to the private sector savings rate and the new equilibrium real interest rate level. Imagine the tragic situation of the economy without fiscal stimulus measures-without trillions of dollars of new fiscal stimulus measures every year, can the United States maintain a positive GDP growth rate? And what will happen to inflation if the Fed is forced to cut interest rates before the inflation fire goes out? These are all questions that the market will have to consider in the coming months.</p><p>The biggest question currently facing the Fed is whether it is possible to repeat the mistakes of 1937, when the Fed believed that the U.S. economy had improved and began to launch a rate hike, but the result was that the U.S. economy fell back into trouble, and ultimately it was massive fiscal reflation during World War II that saved everything.</p><p>But the question is, at present, the debt and deficit of the United States have risen to the level of World War II. Without war, how can the U.S. government justify the annual fiscal stimulus measures of several trillion dollars? When prices continue to rise in 2024 and the economy falls into recession again, how will the then Federal Reserve chairman fight inflation?</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497227.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85333027402a432a97137c9e6d12fcdc","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497227.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2144709321","content_text":"美联储决议后的市场表现，无论从什么角度来看都非比寻常：美元指数自去年3月新冠疫情席卷全球以来创下单日最大涨幅，长端美债收益率跌至2月以来最低，部分商品价格跌至去年3月以来新低，但纳斯达克指数却创下历史新高。\n市场为何出现如此出乎意料的表现?德意志银行首席外汇策略师George Saravelos在报告中表示，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误。而这归结为市场对中性利率r*的极度悲观看法，“换句话说，这与我们六年前预测的，美联储加息周期将以灾难结束时的论点相同。”为何市场会有如此意外走势?德银分析师一一给出分析：\n美元大涨：美元大涨的表现完全符合传统观点，即对美元指数影响最大的是前端实际利率。美联储2023年收紧货币政策的预期已经被重新定价，支撑近期美元强势的表现。即便10年期美债收益率没有创下新高，美元指数强势反弹也并不让人惊讶。商品暴跌：不应低估美联储在推升商品价格方面起到的作用，或许我们从目前美元与基金属价格之前非常高的相关性中可以看出。德银此前的报告也表明，美联储资产负债表、商品价格和通胀预期之间存在强关联性，2013年缩表也标志着当时的通胀预期顶。而多项基于调查的指标，比如密歇根大学通胀预期指数也表明商品价格与通胀预期的高关联性。上述的论据都表明，美联储通过美元和商品影响通胀预期的能力远超一般人想象。\n最后，也是最重要的，债券和中性利率的部分。从下图可以看出，在过去48小时内，债券市场出现明显的扭曲平坦化，在美联储甚至还没开始加息的时候出现这种情况非比寻常。\n重演2015年至2019年美联储加息周期，尽管市场对2023年和2024年加息定价已经上升，但这两个时间点之后的收益率开始下降，主要因市场认为美联储最多能做到的也只有在不到两年时间内加息。这也与通胀预期的明显下降相吻合。事实上，美联储甚至在盈亏平衡通胀率达到2014年正常区间水平前就出现了鹰派的转变。而现在市场对中性利率r*采取了极其悲观的看法。换句话说，如果美联储决定提前行动，那么市场的声音表示，在通胀和增长达到速度极限前，美联储无法走得很远，这也导致市场对美联储第一次加息后的利率预期下降。\n债券市场之外的其他市场也反映出对中性利率r*的悲观，全球投资者对收益率的巨大需求推动美元走强，并产生比预期来得更快的去通胀(通胀放缓，disinflation)影响。换句话说，全球中性利率的低迷将美国中性利率推得更低了。\n而低中性利率与股市走强是相一致的，特别是严重依赖中期贴现利率的成长股。过去两天美股走势反映的是从罗素2000到纳斯达克指数的巨大相对轮动，但德银分析师警告，这其实是2010年到2019年长期停滞十年定价的2.0版本。虽然一两天的价格表现并不能构成趋势，但市场发出的奇怪信号不应被忽略。德银分析师在过去几周一直强调，从V型复苏到后新冠时代的稳定状态，还有许多问题有待解决，包括新冠疫情对私营部门储蓄率，以及新均衡实际利率水平留下的结构性损伤。可以想象，没有财政刺激措施之后经济的悲惨情形——没有每年数万亿美元的新财政刺激措施，美国是否能维持正的GDP增长率?而如果美联储被迫在通胀之火熄灭前就降息，通胀率会怎样?这些都是市场在未来几个月内不得不考虑的问题。\n美联储当前面临的最大问题在于是否可能重蹈1937年覆辙，当时美联储认为美国经济已经好转，并开始启动加息，但结果是美国经济重新陷入困境，最终是二战时期的大规模财政再通胀挽救了一切。\n但问题在于，目前美国的债务和赤字都已经升至二战时的水平，没有战争，美国政府还能如何证明每年几万亿美元的财政刺激措施合理?当2024年物价继续上涨，经济再度陷入衰退，时任的美联储主席要如何抗击通胀?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1104,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}