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2021-06-18

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Noah Chief Economist: rate hike too fast or too much may trigger a debt crisis

诺亚控股首席经济学家夏春表示，在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。考虑到目前低利率环境，美联储正式开始缩减QE，以及开始加息时，对

Noah Chief Economist: rate hike too fast or too much may trigger a debt crisis

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":166417965,"tweetId":"166417965","gmtCreate":1624022469657,"gmtModify":1703826788863,"author":{"id":3578565274483399,"idStr":"3578565274483399","authorId":3578565274483399,"authorIdStr":"3578565274483399","name":"YodianLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee7091222bfacde34d2a3cee83a9a6","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>666</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>666</body></html>","text":"666","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166417965","repostId":1131103648,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131103648","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624021249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131103648?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Noah Chief Economist: rate hike too fast or too much may trigger a debt crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131103648","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"诺亚控股首席经济学家夏春表示，在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。考虑到目前低利率环境，美联储正式开始缩减QE，以及开始加息时，对","content":"Xia Chun, chief economist of Noah Holdings, said that the possibility of announcing the plan to reduce QE at the global central bank meeting in August is the highest, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will not officially begin to reduce bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest. Considering the current low interest rate environment, when the Federal Reserve officially begins to reduce QE and begins a rate hike, the negative impact on U.S. stocks should be relatively short-lived. The trend of US stocks will be more affected by changes in corporate earnings and valuations. However, after several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, U.S. stocks will also usher in obvious adjustments, but this may not occur until 2024.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addb3eb595ad4a26afb82ab7d3609422\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At 2 a.m. on June 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, announcing that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.25%, while maintaining the scale of bond purchases unchanged at US $120 billion per month, in line with broad market expectations. However, the Fed has not given any timetable for the tapering of QE (Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Easing), which the market is closely watching.In addition, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its forecast for inflation this year and also advanced the time frame for the next rate hike. The \"dot plot\" shows that the Fed will make two rate hike before the end of 2023. Earlier, they said in March that there would be no rate hike until at least 2024. This triggered sharp fluctuations in financial markets, with U.S. bond yields soaring sharply, and U.S. stocks falling sharply across the board.In this regard, Xia Chun, chief economist of Noah Holdings, said that at present, it is more likely that there will be two rate hike in 2023. There is a great correlation between the trend of the US dollar and the trend of Treasury Bond yields. From the perspective of fundamentals, valuations and some technical indicators, there is a possibility that the US dollar will strengthen and weaken in the short term, especially if the plan to reduce QE is announced in August, which will bring short-term support to the US dollar.As for the trend of U.S. stocks, the relationship with U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar in the short term is not so direct. On the contrary, the relationship with corporate earnings performance and market risk appetite is more obvious. However, after several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, U.S. stocks will also usher in obvious adjustments, but this may not occur until 2024.He also said that the possibility of announcing the plan to reduce QE at the global central bank meeting in August is the highest, because the June economic data released in July, especially the inflation data, is an important basis for testing the current views of the Federal Reserve and the market. Considering the timing of the announcement of the QE reduction plan, it is very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will officially reduce QE at the end of this year. We don't expect the Fed to officially start tapering bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest.The following is a transcript of the interview:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Finance and Economics: The Federal Reserve has significantly raised its inflation expectations, while also saying that inflation is only temporary. Is this contradictory? Is there a risk of inflation spiraling out of control?Xia Chun: The Federal Reserve raised the core inflation rate to 3% at its June meeting from 2.2% at its March meeting, which is closely related to the fact that inflation data in April and May in the past exceeded market expectations.It is normal for the Fed to update inflation expectations based on new data and does not contradict the view that inflation is only temporary。The major factors currently driving up inflation, such as the base effect, the release of pent-up demand, supply and logistics bottlenecks, the Biden administration's fiscal stimulus policies, labor market shortages, and rising commodity prices, are mostly temporary. Growth momentum will peak in the second quarter, general consumption, durable consumer goods, demand for new homes, commodity prices, etc. have recently fallen from their highs, and the end of the federal unemployment benefit program at the end of September will help improve employment in the labor market.In addition, we have seen that the growth rate of M2 money supply has dropped significantly, the speed of money circulation has remained low, and the labor cost of enterprises has remained at a stable level from before the epidemic began to the present. Current surveys also showMost economists and fund managers agree that inflation is temporary and will fall significantly in the fourth quarter.The relatively high uncertainty lies in the repeated impact of the epidemic on the supply chain, as well as the unexpected results of some policies (such as the response to chip shortages beyond the prediction range of general economic models). Therefore, there is no clear interval for \"temporary\" (although most people think it is within 3-6 months).The risk of runaway inflation is small. For example, the antibodies of a group of people who were vaccinated earlier begin to fail, and the epidemic worsened in the fourth quarter, which is currently less likely.The Federal Reserve can control some speculative demand through monetary policy adjustments to avoid runaway inflation, but monetary policy cannot solve the supply shortages and supply chain bottlenecks caused by the epidemic.Tencent Finance: The dot plot shows that there are two rate hike expected before the end of 2023. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that dot plots are not a good forecasting tool for future interest rate trends, and rate hike is still far away. What do you think of Powell's statement? Will rate hike happen earlier? Fed officials expect rate hike to be earlier and more frequent. Will it push up the dollar and cause U.S. stocks to fall sharply?Xia Chun: Powell maintains his usual dovish attitude, butJudging from the past history, bitmap is really not a good prediction tool.According to the Federal Reserve's dot plot after the 2020 epidemic, there will be no rate hike before 2023. In other words, the rate hike will not begin until 2024, but the actual situation is that the performance of the U.S. economy will start in the third quarter of 2020. It was better than expected, so the market generally believes that rate hike is earlier than the Fed expected. At present, it is more likely that there will be two rate hike in 2023.The trend of the US dollar is greatly correlated with the trend of Treasury Bond yields, from the perspective of fundamentals, valuation and some technical indicators,There is a possibility that the US dollar will strengthen and weaken in the short term, especially if the plan to reduce QE is announced in August, which will bring short-term support to the US dollar。 As for the trend of US stocks,In the short term, the relationship with U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar is not so direct. On the contrary, the relationship with corporate earnings performance and market risk appetite is more obvious.Considering the current low interest rate environment, when the Federal Reserve officially begins to reduce QE and begins a rate hike, the negative impact on U.S. stocks should be relatively short-lived. The trend of US stocks will be more affected by changes in corporate earnings and valuations. butAfter several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, U.S. stocks will also usher in obvious adjustments, but this may not occur until 2024.Tencent Finance: The Federal Reserve's policy statement did not give clues about reducing QE. At the same time, a Bloomberg survey shows that many economists expect that the Federal Reserve may release a signal about reducing QE at the annual meeting of global central banks in August. What do you think? Do you think the Fed will start tapering QE this year?Xia Chun: As some recent economic data are not satisfactory, the market believes that the Federal Reserve will not discuss plans to reduce QE at its June meeting. Powell explained that he still needs to wait for more data before seriously discussing reducing QE.The possibility of announcing the plan to reduce QE at the global central bank meeting in August is the highest, because the June economic data released in July, especially the inflation data, is an important basis for testing the current views of the Federal Reserve and the market.Referring to the market impact caused by the reduction of QE in the past, the Federal Reserve hopes to release clearer information that is more in line with market expectations to reduce the impact on the market.Considering the timing of the announcement of the QE reduction plan,It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will begin to formally reduce QE at the end of this year.The reduction of the QE plan was announced in May 2013, and the actual implementation began in December of that year. WeIt is not expected that the Federal Reserve will officially begin to reduce bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest.Tencent Finance: The Federal Reserve adjusted the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%, and the overnight reverse repurchase rate from 0% to 0.05%. What does this move mean? What impact will it have on the market?Xia Chun: These are mainly fine-tuning for the liquidity needs of the money market and the repo market. There were also downtuning actions in May.Modest impact on stock and bond markets。Tencent Finance: U.S. bond yields have been declining recently, once falling below 1.5%. Why does this phenomenon happen? Do you expect U.S. bond yields to climb further? What level will it rise to this year?Xia Chun: The core reason is that some economic data (consumption, employment, etc.) released recently are not as satisfactory as expected. The probability of economic growth peaking in the second quarter has increased, and the market demand for Treasury Bond has increased, especially from overseas funds. On the other hand, the upward momentum of global stock markets has eased after the short-term surge. After listed companies have achieved good performance as a whole, the possibility of continuing to exceed market expectations in the future has declined.The momentum for U.S. bond yields to rise in the second half of the year should occur around the Fed meeting to officially announce the timetable for tapering bond purchases.Treasury Bond yields were expected to rise close to 2% in the second half of the year a decade ago, but an excess is unlikely.Tencent Finance: Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have taken a two-pronged approach to launch large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus at the same time. At present, the debt scale of the United States exceeds 28 trillion US dollars. If rate hike arrives early, will it trigger a financial and debt crisis?Xia Chun:At present, the debt ratio of GDP in the United States exceeds 130%, and several other major advanced economies are close to this percentageHistorically, such a high proportion of Treasury Bond will have adverse consequences for the economy. Considering that it is currently difficult to solve the problem by default, debt restructuring, depreciation and other methods, it is one of the common practices in history to reduce debt repayment in disguise by allowing inflation.Under the current interest rate level, the proportion of U.S. Treasury Bond interest repayment to GDP is at a level that is not high compared with history.Rate hike would push up the molecular interest rate, increase the weight, increase the risk of a depreciation of the dollar, trigger a debt crisis, and block the approval of U.S. infrastructure and social projects from Congress。In addition to these considerations, the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance also hope to lower real interest rates, reduce the savings level of residents and enterprises (mainly the rich and large enterprises), and increase investment demand by tolerating higher inflation levels, which will help to improve economic growth and solve the current problem of excessive Treasury Bond levels by enlarging the denominator GDP.On the whole, the Fed's judgment on the temporary inflation has a reasonable side, and there is also a realistic need to tolerate inflation.","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Noah Chief Economist: rate hike too fast or too much may trigger a debt crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNoah Chief Economist: rate hike too fast or too much may trigger a debt crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n腾讯美股2021-06-18 21:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nXia Chun, chief economist of Noah Holdings, said that the possibility of announcing the plan to reduce QE at the global central bank meeting in August is the highest, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will not officially begin to reduce bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest. Considering the current low interest rate environment, when the Federal Reserve officially begins to reduce QE and begins a rate hike, the negative impact on U.S. stocks should be relatively short-lived. The trend of US stocks will be more affected by changes in corporate earnings and valuations. However, after several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, U.S. stocks will also usher in obvious adjustments, but this may not occur until 2024.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addb3eb595ad4a26afb82ab7d3609422\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At 2 a.m. on June 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, announcing that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.25%, while maintaining the scale of bond purchases unchanged at US $120 billion per month, in line with broad market expectations. However, the Fed has not given any timetable for the tapering of QE (Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Easing), which the market is closely watching.In addition, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its forecast for inflation this year and also advanced the time frame for the next rate hike. The \"dot plot\" shows that the Fed will make two rate hike before the end of 2023. Earlier, they said in March that there would be no rate hike until at least 2024. This triggered sharp fluctuations in financial markets, with U.S. bond yields soaring sharply, and U.S. stocks falling sharply across the board.In this regard, Xia Chun, chief economist of Noah Holdings, said that at present, it is more likely that there will be two rate hike in 2023. There is a great correlation between the trend of the US dollar and the trend of Treasury Bond yields. From the perspective of fundamentals, valuations and some technical indicators, there is a possibility that the US dollar will strengthen and weaken in the short term, especially if the plan to reduce QE is announced in August, which will bring short-term support to the US dollar.As for the trend of U.S. stocks, the relationship with U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar in the short term is not so direct. On the contrary, the relationship with corporate earnings performance and market risk appetite is more obvious. However, after several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, U.S. stocks will also usher in obvious adjustments, but this may not occur until 2024.He also said that the possibility of announcing the plan to reduce QE at the global central bank meeting in August is the highest, because the June economic data released in July, especially the inflation data, is an important basis for testing the current views of the Federal Reserve and the market. Considering the timing of the announcement of the QE reduction plan, it is very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will officially reduce QE at the end of this year. We don't expect the Fed to officially start tapering bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest.The following is a transcript of the interview:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Finance and Economics: The Federal Reserve has significantly raised its inflation expectations, while also saying that inflation is only temporary. Is this contradictory? Is there a risk of inflation spiraling out of control?Xia Chun: The Federal Reserve raised the core inflation rate to 3% at its June meeting from 2.2% at its March meeting, which is closely related to the fact that inflation data in April and May in the past exceeded market expectations.It is normal for the Fed to update inflation expectations based on new data and does not contradict the view that inflation is only temporary。The major factors currently driving up inflation, such as the base effect, the release of pent-up demand, supply and logistics bottlenecks, the Biden administration's fiscal stimulus policies, labor market shortages, and rising commodity prices, are mostly temporary. Growth momentum will peak in the second quarter, general consumption, durable consumer goods, demand for new homes, commodity prices, etc. have recently fallen from their highs, and the end of the federal unemployment benefit program at the end of September will help improve employment in the labor market.In addition, we have seen that the growth rate of M2 money supply has dropped significantly, the speed of money circulation has remained low, and the labor cost of enterprises has remained at a stable level from before the epidemic began to the present. Current surveys also showMost economists and fund managers agree that inflation is temporary and will fall significantly in the fourth quarter.The relatively high uncertainty lies in the repeated impact of the epidemic on the supply chain, as well as the unexpected results of some policies (such as the response to chip shortages beyond the prediction range of general economic models). Therefore, there is no clear interval for \"temporary\" (although most people think it is within 3-6 months).The risk of runaway inflation is small. For example, the antibodies of a group of people who were vaccinated earlier begin to fail, and the epidemic worsened in the fourth quarter, which is currently less likely.The Federal Reserve can control some speculative demand through monetary policy adjustments to avoid runaway inflation, but monetary policy cannot solve the supply shortages and supply chain bottlenecks caused by the epidemic.Tencent Finance: The dot plot shows that there are two rate hike expected before the end of 2023. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that dot plots are not a good forecasting tool for future interest rate trends, and rate hike is still far away. What do you think of Powell's statement? Will rate hike happen earlier? Fed officials expect rate hike to be earlier and more frequent. Will it push up the dollar and cause U.S. stocks to fall sharply?Xia Chun: Powell maintains his usual dovish attitude, butJudging from the past history, bitmap is really not a good prediction tool.According to the Federal Reserve's dot plot after the 2020 epidemic, there will be no rate hike before 2023. In other words, the rate hike will not begin until 2024, but the actual situation is that the performance of the U.S. economy will start in the third quarter of 2020. It was better than expected, so the market generally believes that rate hike is earlier than the Fed expected. At present, it is more likely that there will be two rate hike in 2023.The trend of the US dollar is greatly correlated with the trend of Treasury Bond yields, from the perspective of fundamentals, valuation and some technical indicators,There is a possibility that the US dollar will strengthen and weaken in the short term, especially if the plan to reduce QE is announced in August, which will bring short-term support to the US dollar。 As for the trend of US stocks,In the short term, the relationship with U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar is not so direct. On the contrary, the relationship with corporate earnings performance and market risk appetite is more obvious.Considering the current low interest rate environment, when the Federal Reserve officially begins to reduce QE and begins a rate hike, the negative impact on U.S. stocks should be relatively short-lived. The trend of US stocks will be more affected by changes in corporate earnings and valuations. butAfter several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, U.S. stocks will also usher in obvious adjustments, but this may not occur until 2024.Tencent Finance: The Federal Reserve's policy statement did not give clues about reducing QE. At the same time, a Bloomberg survey shows that many economists expect that the Federal Reserve may release a signal about reducing QE at the annual meeting of global central banks in August. What do you think? Do you think the Fed will start tapering QE this year?Xia Chun: As some recent economic data are not satisfactory, the market believes that the Federal Reserve will not discuss plans to reduce QE at its June meeting. Powell explained that he still needs to wait for more data before seriously discussing reducing QE.The possibility of announcing the plan to reduce QE at the global central bank meeting in August is the highest, because the June economic data released in July, especially the inflation data, is an important basis for testing the current views of the Federal Reserve and the market.Referring to the market impact caused by the reduction of QE in the past, the Federal Reserve hopes to release clearer information that is more in line with market expectations to reduce the impact on the market.Considering the timing of the announcement of the QE reduction plan,It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will begin to formally reduce QE at the end of this year.The reduction of the QE plan was announced in May 2013, and the actual implementation began in December of that year. WeIt is not expected that the Federal Reserve will officially begin to reduce bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest.Tencent Finance: The Federal Reserve adjusted the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%, and the overnight reverse repurchase rate from 0% to 0.05%. What does this move mean? What impact will it have on the market?Xia Chun: These are mainly fine-tuning for the liquidity needs of the money market and the repo market. There were also downtuning actions in May.Modest impact on stock and bond markets。Tencent Finance: U.S. bond yields have been declining recently, once falling below 1.5%. Why does this phenomenon happen? Do you expect U.S. bond yields to climb further? What level will it rise to this year?Xia Chun: The core reason is that some economic data (consumption, employment, etc.) released recently are not as satisfactory as expected. The probability of economic growth peaking in the second quarter has increased, and the market demand for Treasury Bond has increased, especially from overseas funds. On the other hand, the upward momentum of global stock markets has eased after the short-term surge. After listed companies have achieved good performance as a whole, the possibility of continuing to exceed market expectations in the future has declined.The momentum for U.S. bond yields to rise in the second half of the year should occur around the Fed meeting to officially announce the timetable for tapering bond purchases.Treasury Bond yields were expected to rise close to 2% in the second half of the year a decade ago, but an excess is unlikely.Tencent Finance: Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have taken a two-pronged approach to launch large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus at the same time. At present, the debt scale of the United States exceeds 28 trillion US dollars. If rate hike arrives early, will it trigger a financial and debt crisis?Xia Chun:At present, the debt ratio of GDP in the United States exceeds 130%, and several other major advanced economies are close to this percentageHistorically, such a high proportion of Treasury Bond will have adverse consequences for the economy. Considering that it is currently difficult to solve the problem by default, debt restructuring, depreciation and other methods, it is one of the common practices in history to reduce debt repayment in disguise by allowing inflation.Under the current interest rate level, the proportion of U.S. Treasury Bond interest repayment to GDP is at a level that is not high compared with history.Rate hike would push up the molecular interest rate, increase the weight, increase the risk of a depreciation of the dollar, trigger a debt crisis, and block the approval of U.S. infrastructure and social projects from Congress。In addition to these considerations, the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance also hope to lower real interest rates, reduce the savings level of residents and enterprises (mainly the rich and large enterprises), and increase investment demand by tolerating higher inflation levels, which will help to improve economic growth and solve the current problem of excessive Treasury Bond levels by enlarging the denominator GDP.On the whole, the Fed's judgment on the temporary inflation has a reasonable side, and there is also a realistic need to tolerate inflation.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D26oXlpOoaJEhKQaoZ4LPA\">腾讯美股</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addb3eb595ad4a26afb82ab7d3609422","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D26oXlpOoaJEhKQaoZ4LPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131103648","content_text":"诺亚控股首席经济学家夏春表示，在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。考虑到目前低利率环境，美联储正式开始缩减QE，以及开始加息时，对美股的负面影响应该都会比较短暂。美股走势更多会受到企业盈利和估值变化的影响。不过数次加息之后，叠加上缩表，美股也会迎来明显的调整，但这个出现的时间可能要到2024年了。\n\n\n北京时间6月17日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议，宣布维持基准利率在0%-0.25%区间不变，同时维持购债规模在每月1200亿美元不变，符合市场广泛预期。但是，市场密切关注的缩减QE（Quantitative Easing，量化宽松）问题，美联储并未给出任何时间表。\n此外，美联储大幅上调对今年通胀的预期，还提前了下一次加息的时间框架。“点阵图”显示，美联储在2023年底前将会加息两次。此前，他们在3月份表示，至少在2024年之前都不会加息。这引发了金融市场大幅波动，美债收益率大幅飙升，美股全线大跌。\n对此，诺亚控股首席经济学家夏春表示，目前来看，2023年出现两次加息的可能性较大。美元走势与国债收益率走势的相关性较大，从基本面，估值以及一些技术性指标来看，美元在短期内走强和走弱的可能性都存在，特别是如果缩减QE的计划在8月宣布，会对美元带来短期支撑的效果。\n至于美股的走势，短期内与美债收益率和美元的关系并不是那么直接，相反与企业盈利表现以及市场的风险偏好关系更加明显一些。不过数次加息之后，叠加上缩表，美股也会迎来明显的调整，但这个出现的时间可能要到2024年了。\n他还表示，在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，因为7月份公布的6月份经济数据，特别是通胀数据是检验目前美联储和市场观点的重要依据。考虑到公布缩减QE计划的时间，美联储在今年底开始正式缩减QE的可能性很小。我们预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。\n以下为采访实录：\n腾讯财经：美联储大幅上调通胀预期，同时还称通胀只是暂时的，这是否有矛盾？通胀是否有失控的风险？\n夏春：美联储6月会议将核心通胀率从3月会议的2.2%上调到3%，与过去4月和5月的通胀数据均超过市场预期紧密相关，美联储根据新的数据更新通胀预期是正常的，与通胀只是暂时的观点并没有矛盾。\n目前推升通胀的几大因素例如基数效应，被压抑的需求释放，供应与物流瓶颈，拜登政府的财政刺激政策，劳动力市场短缺，大宗商品价格上升等因素大部分都是暂时的，例如经济增长动力将在二季度见顶，一般消费，耐用消费品，新房需求，大宗商品价格等最近已经从高点回落，联邦失业补助计划在9月底结束有助于改善劳动力市场就业等。\n此外，我们看到M2货币供应增速明显回落，货币流通速度依然保持在低位，企业用工成本在疫情开始前到现在均维持在稳定的水平。目前调查也显示大部分经济学家和基金经理认同通胀是暂时的，四季度会明显回落。\n相对来说不确定性较高的部分在于疫情反复对供应链的影响，以及部分政策产生的意料之外的结果（例如对芯片短缺带来的反应超出一般经济模型的预测范围）。也因此“暂时性”并没有一个清晰的区间（尽管大部分人认为在3-6个月内）。\n通胀失控的风险很小，例如较早接种疫苗的一批人的抗体开始失效，而疫情在四季度出现恶化，目前来看这种可能性较小。美联储可以通过货币政策的调整来控制一些投机型的需求避免通胀失控，但货币政策无法解决疫情造成的供给短缺和供应链瓶颈。\n腾讯财经：点阵图显示，2023年底前料有两次加息。但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，点阵图对未来利率走势不是一个很好的预测工具，加息依然遥远。您怎么看鲍威尔这一表述？加息是否会提前发生？美联储官员预期加息提前，且次数增多，是否会推升美元，并导致美股大幅下跌？\n夏春：鲍威尔维持了一贯的鸽派态度，不过从过往历史来看，点阵图的确不是一个很好的预测工具。按照美联储从2020年疫情之后的点阵图来看，2023年之前都不会进行加息，换言之，加息要到2024年才开始，但是实际情况是美国经济的表现在2020年第三季度开始就比预期的要理想，因此市场普遍认为加息要早于美联储的预期。目前来看，2023年出现两次加息的可能性较大。\n美元走势与国债收益率走势的相关性较大，从基本面，估值以及一些技术性指标来看，美元在短期内走强和走弱的可能性都存在，特别是如果缩减QE的计划在8月宣布，会对美元带来短期支撑的效果。至于美股的走势，短期内与美债收益率和美元的关系并不是那么直接，相反与企业盈利表现以及市场的风险偏好关系更加明显一些。\n考虑到目前低利率环境，美联储正式开始缩减QE，以及开始加息时，对美股的负面影响应该都会比较短暂。美股走势更多会受到企业盈利和估值变化的影响。不过数次加息之后，叠加上缩表，美股也会迎来明显的调整，但这个出现的时间可能要到2024年了。\n腾讯财经：美联储政策声明中并未给出缩减QE的线索，同时彭博调查显示，很多经济学家预计美联储可能会在8月份全球央行年会上释放有关缩减QE的信号，您怎么看？您认为美联储会在今年开始缩减QE吗？\n夏春：由于近期的部分经济数据不够理想，市场认为美联储不会在6月会议上讨论缩减QE的计划。鲍威尔解释还需要等待更多的数据才会认真讨论缩减QE。在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，因为7月份公布的6月份经济数据，特别是通胀数据是检验目前美联储和市场观点的重要依据。参照过往缩减QE造成的市场冲击，美联储希望能够释放更加清晰，更符合市场预期的信息以降低对市场的冲击。\n考虑到公布缩减QE计划的时间，美联储在今年底开始正式缩减QE的可能性很小。2013年5月宣布缩减QE计划，实际执行开始于当年12月份。我们预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。\n腾讯财经：美联储将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%调整至0.15%，同时将隔夜逆回购利率由0%调整至0.05%，这一举措意味着什么？会对市场造成什么影响？\n夏春：这些主要是针对货币市场和回购市场的流动性需要进行的微调，5月也有调低的动作，对股票和债券市场的影响不大。\n腾讯财经：美债收益率近期不断下滑，一度跌破1.5%，为何会产生这一现象？您预计美债收益率会进一步攀升吗？今年会升至什么水平？\n夏春：核心原因在于近期公布的一些经济数据（消费，就业等）不及预期理想，二季度经济增长见顶的概率加大，市场对国债的需求上升，尤其是来自于海外的资金。另一方面，全球股市在短期内大涨之后的上行动力有所缓和，上市公司整体创下很好的业绩之后，在未来继续超越市场预期的可能性下降。\n美债收益率在下半年上涨的动力应该出现在美联储会议正式公布缩减购买债券的时间表的前后发生，预计十年前国债收益率下半年将上升接近2%，但超出的可能性不大。\n腾讯财经：自2020年3月来，美联储和美国政府双管齐下，同时推出大规模货币和财政刺激。当前，美国债务规模超过28万亿美元，加息如果提前到来是否会引发财政和债务危机？\n夏春：目前，美国债务占GDP的比重超过了130%，而其他几个主要发达经济体也已经接近这一百分比，历史上，这么高的国债比重会对经济产生不利的后果，考虑到目前难以采取违约，债务重组，贬值等方法解决，那么通过放任通胀来变相降低债务偿还是历史上常见的做法之一。\n在目前的利率水平下，美国国债偿还利息占GDP的比重处在一个和历史相比并不算高的水平，加息会推升分子利息，扩大这一比重，加大美元贬值的风险，引发债务危机，并且阻碍美国基建计划和社会项目获得国会的批准。\n除了这些考虑，美联储和财政部还希望通过容忍较高的通胀水平，来压低实际利率，降低居民和企业（主要是富人和大企业）的储蓄水平，增加投资需求，这样有助于提升经济增长，通过做大分母GDP，来解决目前的国债水平过高的难题。\n综合来看，美联储对通胀暂时性的判断有合理的一面，对通胀的容忍也有现实的需要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2505,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}