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2021-07-19

What is the "new information" in Powell's testimony?

一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息” 7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派

What is the "new information" in Powell's testimony?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":171991508,"tweetId":"171991508","gmtCreate":1626701332904,"gmtModify":1703763586089,"author":{"id":3571305293972802,"idStr":"3571305293972802","authorId":3571305293972802,"authorIdStr":"3571305293972802","name":"puah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28e10f2ac6e631dd9d794c3a57c13f69","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","text":"Hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171991508","repostId":2152763544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152763544","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626676742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152763544?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 14:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152763544","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息”\n7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。\n整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派","content":"<h3>1.Subject comment: \"New information\" in Powell's testimony</h3>On July 14, the Federal Reserve released Chairman Powell's testimony to be submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on July 15, as well as the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report.Overall, Powell's speech remained dovish. This is reflected in: \"flaunting\" the positive impact of loose monetary policy on the U.S. economy, believing that there is still a long way to go before the labor market recovers, emphasizing that the higher inflation rate is mainly caused by base effects and supply chain bottlenecks, and not worrying about the financial system. vulnerability, and emphasizing that the U.S. economy has not yet made the \"substantial further progress\" required to implement Taper, and that Taper will be \"notified in advance\", etc.After Powell's testimony was released, the market also felt the familiar \"dove sound\", and the market panic caused by the soaring U.S. inflation indicators in June eased slightly. The S&P 500 index hit a new intraday high, the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell by more than 5 basis points at the deepest, and the the US Dollar Index fell in the short term. It is worth noting that the Bank of New Zealand has stopped Treasury Bond purchases, and the Bank of Canada has begun to implement Taper.We believe that the Fed is still trying to \"not make a sharp turn\", but in the future, if the U.S. job market recovers as scheduled, inflation indicators remain high, and foreign central banks \"rush\", then the Fed's \"excuses\" will be even more insufficient, and it still needs to Be wary of the risk that the Fed's policy shift will come \"earlier\" or be \"stronger\" than expected.Specifically, the key information in Powell's testimony includes:1) The U.S. economy is recovering rapidly, but supply chain bottlenecks have affected some industries.Powell believes that in the first half of 2021, the reopening of the U.S. economy and strong economic growth will be helped by COVID-19 vaccine vaccination on the one hand, and supported by loose monetary and fiscal policies on the other. The most obvious of these is that household spending is growing at a particularly rapid rate, housing demand is very strong, and business investment is growing steadily. But at the same time, supply constraints have restricted activity in some industries, most notably the automotive industry. The global semiconductor shortage has slashed production in the automotive industry so far this year.2) Labor market conditions continue to improve, but there is still a long way to go.Powell believes that U.S. labor demand appears to be very strong, with job vacancies currently at record highs, strong hiring momentum and many people leaving in search of better jobs. From April to June, U.S. employers added 1.7 million new workers. However, the unemployment rate in the United States was still as high as 5.9% in June, and this figure also underestimated the lack of employment recovery, because the labor force participation rate remained sluggish. But U.S. job growth should be strong in the coming months as the pandemic improves and its impact on employment diminishes. In addition, he also emphasized that the employment of low-income groups and people of color is more affected and needs to be restored.3) Inflation has risen significantly and is likely to remain high in the coming months before easing.Powell believes that the first is that the base effect temporarily pushes up inflation, and the second is that in the context of strong demand, supply bottlenecks have led to rapid prices for certain goods and services. However, as supply chain bottlenecks ease in the future, similar situations should be reversed to a certain extent. Prices for services severely affected by the pandemic have also risen sharply in recent months, as demand for services is rising sharply as the economy reopens. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy framework to seek to stabilize long-term inflation expectations at 2%, and the indicator that measures long-term inflation expectations has recovered from the low point and is currently in a range roughly consistent with the Fed's long-term inflation target.4) The Fed is not yet worried about asset prices and the fragility of the financial system.Powell said that sustainable employment maximization and price stability depend on a stable financial system, so the Fed will continue to monitor the vulnerabilities of the financial system. However, although the valuations of various assets have generally risen as fundamentals improve and investors' risk appetite increases, the balance sheet of American households is quite strong, the level of corporate leverage has been declining from a high level, and the institutions at the core of the financial system remain resilient.5) Powell still denies that the economy has made \"substantial further progress\" and maintains a dovish tone.Powell said the combination of \"zero interest rates\" + asset purchases, coupled with \"strong guidance\" on interest rates and balance sheets, will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the U.S. economy until the recovery is complete. It reiterated the main points of the June FOMC meeting: for interest rate adjustments, it is necessary to wait until the economy truly achieves maximum employment and long-term inflation targets; For asset purchases, at least the current pace will be maintained until \"substantial further progress\" is made. Powell further revealed that at the June interest rate meeting, the committee discussed the progress made by the U.S. economy since December last year. Although it is still some way from reaching the standard of \"substantial further progress\", the progress is expected to continue. The Fed will continue to discuss these issues in future meetings. The Federal Reserve will provide advance notice before announcing any changes to asset purchases.<h3>Two,Overseas Economic Tracking</h3>1U.S. Economy: Inflation indicators hit new highs in June, and consumption of non-durable goods and services gradually picked up momentumThe U.S. CPI continued to hit a new high year-on-year in June, rising 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than the average growth rate of the past five years (about 0.2%). Looking at items, most of them are accelerating month-on-month.The most \"exaggerated\" thing is that the transportation item rose by 3.6% month-on-month (the previous value was 2.1%), which is still due to the increase in used car prices.At present, it is difficult to judge the inflection point of used car price growth, and it may still have an unexpected pulling effect on the US CPI in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bc1d3f271ec0d93b01c0be754f4b07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of U.S. PPI in June also hit new highs, with all sub-items rising month-on-month, of which the \"trade\" sub-item rose by 2.1% month-on-month. In the past month,The rise in international oil prices not only directly increases the cost pressure of energy products, but also leads to an increase in international freight rates and a sharp increase in the prices of imported goods in the United States.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788dd66c7ab2ea169c154ddbe5b870c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U.S. retail sales rose slightly by 0.55% month-on-month in June, better than expected and previous values.The structural changes of retail sales deserve attention. The sales of \"small items\" are better than those of \"large items\".Sales of department stores, clothing accessories, food and beverages continued to rise, while sales of automobiles, furniture and home improvement, building materials and materials continued to decline. We continue to emphasize that in the second half of the year, U.S. consumption power will shift from durable goods to non-durable goods and services, and service consumption accounts for the bulk of U.S. residents' consumption, so there is still sufficient room for consumption growth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2db4d79190094ea518b852220b8f58\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States dropped significantly in July.The rapid rise in prices and the expectation of a marginal slowdown in the U.S. economy may have suppressed consumer confidence to some extent. However,Employment indicators still send optimistic signals,In the week ending July 3, the number of continuing jobless claims in the United States dropped significantly by 126,000 to 3.241 million, and the latest number of initial jobless claims also continued to decline. With the expiration of additional unemployment benefits in the United States, there is still hope for a rapid recovery of employment in the United States.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912f8e51be197290db777f52cf9d37ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2Overseas epidemic situation and vaccine tracking: a new wave of global epidemics is comingSince late June, especially July, the world may be at the starting point of a new wave of epidemics.Previously, the epidemic in India rose significantly and posed a certain degree of threat to the global economy. However, the current epidemic situation in India has gradually eased, and the new wave of the epidemic has affected a wider scope. At present, many areas are disturbed by the Delta virus, and the number of new confirmed cases is rising again. In Europe, the epidemic situation in the UK took the lead in rising and began to approach the high point in January this year. However, the UK will be completely unsealed on July 19 (restrictions on wearing masks, 1 meter social distance, working from home, and density of people in public places will be lifted), which is a new trend of global epidemic prevention policies worthy of attention. In the past week, the number of new confirmed cases in France has also shown signs of rising, and the epidemic situation in other EU countries such as Germany and Italy is still stable. The epidemic situation in Japan has just eased, and it has risen significantly in the past week. The Olympic Games is just around the corner, and the risk of the epidemic situation has attracted global attention. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries is \"ebbing and changing\". Recently, Vietnam, Thailand and other countries have deteriorated significantly, and related stock markets have also been significantly impacted. The epidemic in Israel has also unexpectedly counterattacked, and the effectiveness of vaccination against new viruses may be \"discounted\". However, looking further at the British epidemic data, vaccination has greatly reduced the mortality rate. It is not impossible that COVID-19 pandemic will continue to survive like the \"flu\" in the future, but its impact is controllable. But,Concerns about the global epidemic are, to a certain extent, cooling the recent risk appetite of the capital market, and reflation transactions have been questioned, which deserves continued attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbf848a54d0d9c8c1eccaec1359aa62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd919d9bf8e9457c68df716ef4280cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9bae175032440d3c388e9ca605b33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Global Asset Performance1Global Stocks-Emerging Markets Rally, Developed Markets Pull BackEmerging markets, especially Asian emerging market stock markets, have been underperforming developed markets since late June due to the counterattack of the epidemic and the alert of \"austerity panic\". In the past week, it finally rebounded, and the stock indexes of major markets such as South Korea, India, Taiwan Province, Mexico, China (GEM and CSI 300), Indonesia and Brazil all rose. At the same time, most developed market stock markets pulled back, but the U.S. Dow (-0.5%) fell less than the Nasdaq (-1.9%), and the U.S. stock cyclical sector showed stronger resilience.Vietnam's stock market has been hit hard in the past two weeks.On July 14th, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index fell by nearly 10% compared with July 2nd. Vietnam's stock market has performed well since the beginning of this year, basically maintaining a unilateral upward trend before July. Vietnam's strong export performance is the cornerstone of market confidence. According to Vietnamplus, Vietnam's exports of goods from January to June this year increased by 28.4% year-on-year. However, note thatPossible changes in confidence in the Vietnamese market after the marginal slowdown in external demand in the second half of the year.On July 5th, 11th and 16th, the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day in Vietnam exceeded 1,000, 2,000 and 4,000 respectively, but before May this year, the number did not exceed 100. The sudden rise of the epidemic should be the trigger for this stock market adjustment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9691c486b0bd2aec0923cc0031fc6e38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98124ab0b82d7230c0778dd983cb3221\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2Global bond market-10-year U.S. bond real interest rate falls below-1%In the past week, long-term U.S. bond yields continued to decline, with 7-year and above U.S. bond yields falling 4-6bp throughout the week. The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell 6bp throughout the week to 1.31%, of which the 10-year TIPS (real) interest rate fell 11bp to-1.02%, and implied inflation expectations rose 5bp to 2.33%.On July 15, the 10-year TIPS rate fell below-1%, hitting a new low since February 12. In the past 10 years, U.S. bond yields have dropped to previously unimaginable lows, mainly because the market lacks confidence in the U.S. economic prospects:On the one hand, the scale of the U.S. fiscal plan is discounted, which has lowered the market's medium and long-term inflation expectations for the United States. And although the inflation indicator is still \"off the charts\" in the short term, it is difficult for the market to continue to bet heavily because inflation expectations are already at historically high levels. However, factors such as the slowdown of vaccination and the disturbance of mutated viruses. This has intensified the market's concerns about whether \"herd immunity\" can be achieved in the second half of the year and whether economic activities can be restarted on time, resulting in a significant decline in the real interest rate of U.S. debt. In the early stage, the market has largely incorporated optimistic expectations into asset pricing, creating U.S. stocks and U.S. corporate bonds that continue to hit new highs. The market is undoubtedly experiencing huge changes in expectations recently. In terms of the global bond market, 10-year Treasury Bond/government bonds in most regions continued to follow U.S. bonds. However, Treasury Bond yields rose due to the sharp deterioration of the epidemic in Thailand, Malaysian and other regions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926368c7d4bdf8bf2910663929dca4d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc40a8708bcb3030bf1e3a9a8e42a388\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">3Commodity market-oil prices fell, black series continued to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>ReboundIn the past week, international oil prices have corrected significantly. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices fell by 3.7% and 2.6% respectively throughout the week, closing at US $71.81 and US $73.59/barrel respectively. However, EIA U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline by 7.9 million barrels in the week ending July 9, and the rate of decline was essentially the same as the previous two weeks. The main reason for the fluctuation of oil prices in the past week is the expected change of supply and demand: on the supply side, the resumption of negotiations between the UAE and OPEC means that the production increase plan is expected to proceed smoothly (Saudi Arabia agreed to raise the UAE's production reduction benchmark in exchange for the UAE's agreement to increase the overall production reduction agreement from 2022). April extended to the end of that year); On the demand side, the recent disturbance in COVID-19 pandemic and the market's concerns about the \"peaking\" of the US economy may make the market more cautious in judging crude oil demand to some extent.In our report \"Will oil prices be the next\" grey rhinoceros \"?\", it is pointed out that supply constraints are the key to oil price trends in the second half of the year. At present, it is a high probability that the increase in shale oil production in the United States will be limited. In the future, we need to pay close attention to whether OPEC + can stick to its previous commitment to increase production. If there is no significant increase in production, international oil prices may fluctuate at a high level in the range of 70-80 US dollars/barrel in the second half of the year.The prices of domestic black commodities (iron ore, rebar, thermal coal, etc.) have risen for 2-3 consecutive weeks. We reported in March \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\" It suggests the risk of a \"green bubble\", because behind the rise in copper prices, in addition to the real contradiction between supply and demand, there is also speculation and boost from the capital market. After a significant correction in mid-June, LME copper prices have recently remained within a narrow range of US $9,100-9,500/ton. At present, LME copper inventories have risen to a high level in nearly a year, and the shrinking of \"Biden infrastructure\" has also suppressed demand expectations. The tight copper supply and demand situation has shown some signs of easing.In the future, market inflation expectations and risk appetite may also fall back from high levels, and it may be more difficult for copper prices to rise and may experience more fluctuations.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e6ad7c58aefe649d33c4ac2321641d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880f378ea54447226750849c934fe3a0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4Foreign exchange market-the US Dollar Index hits new high since the second quarterThe US Dollar Index rose to 92.79 on July 13, surpassing the previous high of 92.72 on July 7 and setting a new high since April this year.How to understand the relationship between the recent decline in U.S. bond yields and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar? We believe that we need to pay attention to the difference between vertical and horizontal comparisons of the U.S. economy.Recently, the U.S. bond market is trading the \"peak\" of the U.S. economy, which is the main driving force behind the obvious decline of US Treasury yields. However, the recent epidemic situation in many places, including the United Kingdom, has counterattacked, and the economic prospects of non-US regions except the euro zone are still worrying. Therefore, the relative performance of the U.S. economy this year is still \"outstanding\", and the market's expectation of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is also constantly strengthening. We continue to maintain the judgment that the US dollar is expected to strengthen in stages in the second half of the year (refer to our report \"The Next Step of the US dollar\"). In addition, there are some new changes to support the strength of the US dollar recently: after the European Central Bank adjusts its monetary policy decisions, the European Central Bank may further accelerate the expansion of its balance sheet and delay Taper. The difference in the monetary policy rhythm between the US and European central banks may further release the appreciation space of the US dollar against the euro. It is worth noting that the U.S. dollar has mainly depreciated against developed markets since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its value against emerging markets this year has been basically the same as that in the second half of 2019, which may mean that the room for currency depreciation in emerging markets is relatively limited. In the past week, Bitcoin prices have hit a new low since February this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b6b3535060790986839dc811272b2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2421b79d6ce17f8f080b339b33ea9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2021-07-19 14:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<h3>1.Subject comment: \"New information\" in Powell's testimony</h3>On July 14, the Federal Reserve released Chairman Powell's testimony to be submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on July 15, as well as the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report.Overall, Powell's speech remained dovish. This is reflected in: \"flaunting\" the positive impact of loose monetary policy on the U.S. economy, believing that there is still a long way to go before the labor market recovers, emphasizing that the higher inflation rate is mainly caused by base effects and supply chain bottlenecks, and not worrying about the financial system. vulnerability, and emphasizing that the U.S. economy has not yet made the \"substantial further progress\" required to implement Taper, and that Taper will be \"notified in advance\", etc.After Powell's testimony was released, the market also felt the familiar \"dove sound\", and the market panic caused by the soaring U.S. inflation indicators in June eased slightly. The S&P 500 index hit a new intraday high, the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell by more than 5 basis points at the deepest, and the the US Dollar Index fell in the short term. It is worth noting that the Bank of New Zealand has stopped Treasury Bond purchases, and the Bank of Canada has begun to implement Taper.We believe that the Fed is still trying to \"not make a sharp turn\", but in the future, if the U.S. job market recovers as scheduled, inflation indicators remain high, and foreign central banks \"rush\", then the Fed's \"excuses\" will be even more insufficient, and it still needs to Be wary of the risk that the Fed's policy shift will come \"earlier\" or be \"stronger\" than expected.Specifically, the key information in Powell's testimony includes:1) The U.S. economy is recovering rapidly, but supply chain bottlenecks have affected some industries.Powell believes that in the first half of 2021, the reopening of the U.S. economy and strong economic growth will be helped by COVID-19 vaccine vaccination on the one hand, and supported by loose monetary and fiscal policies on the other. The most obvious of these is that household spending is growing at a particularly rapid rate, housing demand is very strong, and business investment is growing steadily. But at the same time, supply constraints have restricted activity in some industries, most notably the automotive industry. The global semiconductor shortage has slashed production in the automotive industry so far this year.2) Labor market conditions continue to improve, but there is still a long way to go.Powell believes that U.S. labor demand appears to be very strong, with job vacancies currently at record highs, strong hiring momentum and many people leaving in search of better jobs. From April to June, U.S. employers added 1.7 million new workers. However, the unemployment rate in the United States was still as high as 5.9% in June, and this figure also underestimated the lack of employment recovery, because the labor force participation rate remained sluggish. But U.S. job growth should be strong in the coming months as the pandemic improves and its impact on employment diminishes. In addition, he also emphasized that the employment of low-income groups and people of color is more affected and needs to be restored.3) Inflation has risen significantly and is likely to remain high in the coming months before easing.Powell believes that the first is that the base effect temporarily pushes up inflation, and the second is that in the context of strong demand, supply bottlenecks have led to rapid prices for certain goods and services. However, as supply chain bottlenecks ease in the future, similar situations should be reversed to a certain extent. Prices for services severely affected by the pandemic have also risen sharply in recent months, as demand for services is rising sharply as the economy reopens. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy framework to seek to stabilize long-term inflation expectations at 2%, and the indicator that measures long-term inflation expectations has recovered from the low point and is currently in a range roughly consistent with the Fed's long-term inflation target.4) The Fed is not yet worried about asset prices and the fragility of the financial system.Powell said that sustainable employment maximization and price stability depend on a stable financial system, so the Fed will continue to monitor the vulnerabilities of the financial system. However, although the valuations of various assets have generally risen as fundamentals improve and investors' risk appetite increases, the balance sheet of American households is quite strong, the level of corporate leverage has been declining from a high level, and the institutions at the core of the financial system remain resilient.5) Powell still denies that the economy has made \"substantial further progress\" and maintains a dovish tone.Powell said the combination of \"zero interest rates\" + asset purchases, coupled with \"strong guidance\" on interest rates and balance sheets, will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the U.S. economy until the recovery is complete. It reiterated the main points of the June FOMC meeting: for interest rate adjustments, it is necessary to wait until the economy truly achieves maximum employment and long-term inflation targets; For asset purchases, at least the current pace will be maintained until \"substantial further progress\" is made. Powell further revealed that at the June interest rate meeting, the committee discussed the progress made by the U.S. economy since December last year. Although it is still some way from reaching the standard of \"substantial further progress\", the progress is expected to continue. The Fed will continue to discuss these issues in future meetings. The Federal Reserve will provide advance notice before announcing any changes to asset purchases.<h3>Two,Overseas Economic Tracking</h3>1U.S. Economy: Inflation indicators hit new highs in June, and consumption of non-durable goods and services gradually picked up momentumThe U.S. CPI continued to hit a new high year-on-year in June, rising 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than the average growth rate of the past five years (about 0.2%). Looking at items, most of them are accelerating month-on-month.The most \"exaggerated\" thing is that the transportation item rose by 3.6% month-on-month (the previous value was 2.1%), which is still due to the increase in used car prices.At present, it is difficult to judge the inflection point of used car price growth, and it may still have an unexpected pulling effect on the US CPI in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bc1d3f271ec0d93b01c0be754f4b07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of U.S. PPI in June also hit new highs, with all sub-items rising month-on-month, of which the \"trade\" sub-item rose by 2.1% month-on-month. In the past month,The rise in international oil prices not only directly increases the cost pressure of energy products, but also leads to an increase in international freight rates and a sharp increase in the prices of imported goods in the United States.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788dd66c7ab2ea169c154ddbe5b870c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U.S. retail sales rose slightly by 0.55% month-on-month in June, better than expected and previous values.The structural changes of retail sales deserve attention. The sales of \"small items\" are better than those of \"large items\".Sales of department stores, clothing accessories, food and beverages continued to rise, while sales of automobiles, furniture and home improvement, building materials and materials continued to decline. We continue to emphasize that in the second half of the year, U.S. consumption power will shift from durable goods to non-durable goods and services, and service consumption accounts for the bulk of U.S. residents' consumption, so there is still sufficient room for consumption growth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2db4d79190094ea518b852220b8f58\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States dropped significantly in July.The rapid rise in prices and the expectation of a marginal slowdown in the U.S. economy may have suppressed consumer confidence to some extent. However,Employment indicators still send optimistic signals,In the week ending July 3, the number of continuing jobless claims in the United States dropped significantly by 126,000 to 3.241 million, and the latest number of initial jobless claims also continued to decline. With the expiration of additional unemployment benefits in the United States, there is still hope for a rapid recovery of employment in the United States.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912f8e51be197290db777f52cf9d37ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2Overseas epidemic situation and vaccine tracking: a new wave of global epidemics is comingSince late June, especially July, the world may be at the starting point of a new wave of epidemics.Previously, the epidemic in India rose significantly and posed a certain degree of threat to the global economy. However, the current epidemic situation in India has gradually eased, and the new wave of the epidemic has affected a wider scope. At present, many areas are disturbed by the Delta virus, and the number of new confirmed cases is rising again. In Europe, the epidemic situation in the UK took the lead in rising and began to approach the high point in January this year. However, the UK will be completely unsealed on July 19 (restrictions on wearing masks, 1 meter social distance, working from home, and density of people in public places will be lifted), which is a new trend of global epidemic prevention policies worthy of attention. In the past week, the number of new confirmed cases in France has also shown signs of rising, and the epidemic situation in other EU countries such as Germany and Italy is still stable. The epidemic situation in Japan has just eased, and it has risen significantly in the past week. The Olympic Games is just around the corner, and the risk of the epidemic situation has attracted global attention. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries is \"ebbing and changing\". Recently, Vietnam, Thailand and other countries have deteriorated significantly, and related stock markets have also been significantly impacted. The epidemic in Israel has also unexpectedly counterattacked, and the effectiveness of vaccination against new viruses may be \"discounted\". However, looking further at the British epidemic data, vaccination has greatly reduced the mortality rate. It is not impossible that COVID-19 pandemic will continue to survive like the \"flu\" in the future, but its impact is controllable. But,Concerns about the global epidemic are, to a certain extent, cooling the recent risk appetite of the capital market, and reflation transactions have been questioned, which deserves continued attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbf848a54d0d9c8c1eccaec1359aa62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd919d9bf8e9457c68df716ef4280cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9bae175032440d3c388e9ca605b33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Global Asset Performance1Global Stocks-Emerging Markets Rally, Developed Markets Pull BackEmerging markets, especially Asian emerging market stock markets, have been underperforming developed markets since late June due to the counterattack of the epidemic and the alert of \"austerity panic\". In the past week, it finally rebounded, and the stock indexes of major markets such as South Korea, India, Taiwan Province, Mexico, China (GEM and CSI 300), Indonesia and Brazil all rose. At the same time, most developed market stock markets pulled back, but the U.S. Dow (-0.5%) fell less than the Nasdaq (-1.9%), and the U.S. stock cyclical sector showed stronger resilience.Vietnam's stock market has been hit hard in the past two weeks.On July 14th, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index fell by nearly 10% compared with July 2nd. Vietnam's stock market has performed well since the beginning of this year, basically maintaining a unilateral upward trend before July. Vietnam's strong export performance is the cornerstone of market confidence. According to Vietnamplus, Vietnam's exports of goods from January to June this year increased by 28.4% year-on-year. However, note thatPossible changes in confidence in the Vietnamese market after the marginal slowdown in external demand in the second half of the year.On July 5th, 11th and 16th, the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day in Vietnam exceeded 1,000, 2,000 and 4,000 respectively, but before May this year, the number did not exceed 100. The sudden rise of the epidemic should be the trigger for this stock market adjustment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9691c486b0bd2aec0923cc0031fc6e38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98124ab0b82d7230c0778dd983cb3221\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2Global bond market-10-year U.S. bond real interest rate falls below-1%In the past week, long-term U.S. bond yields continued to decline, with 7-year and above U.S. bond yields falling 4-6bp throughout the week. The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell 6bp throughout the week to 1.31%, of which the 10-year TIPS (real) interest rate fell 11bp to-1.02%, and implied inflation expectations rose 5bp to 2.33%.On July 15, the 10-year TIPS rate fell below-1%, hitting a new low since February 12. In the past 10 years, U.S. bond yields have dropped to previously unimaginable lows, mainly because the market lacks confidence in the U.S. economic prospects:On the one hand, the scale of the U.S. fiscal plan is discounted, which has lowered the market's medium and long-term inflation expectations for the United States. And although the inflation indicator is still \"off the charts\" in the short term, it is difficult for the market to continue to bet heavily because inflation expectations are already at historically high levels. However, factors such as the slowdown of vaccination and the disturbance of mutated viruses. This has intensified the market's concerns about whether \"herd immunity\" can be achieved in the second half of the year and whether economic activities can be restarted on time, resulting in a significant decline in the real interest rate of U.S. debt. In the early stage, the market has largely incorporated optimistic expectations into asset pricing, creating U.S. stocks and U.S. corporate bonds that continue to hit new highs. The market is undoubtedly experiencing huge changes in expectations recently. In terms of the global bond market, 10-year Treasury Bond/government bonds in most regions continued to follow U.S. bonds. However, Treasury Bond yields rose due to the sharp deterioration of the epidemic in Thailand, Malaysian and other regions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926368c7d4bdf8bf2910663929dca4d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc40a8708bcb3030bf1e3a9a8e42a388\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">3Commodity market-oil prices fell, black series continued to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>ReboundIn the past week, international oil prices have corrected significantly. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices fell by 3.7% and 2.6% respectively throughout the week, closing at US $71.81 and US $73.59/barrel respectively. However, EIA U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline by 7.9 million barrels in the week ending July 9, and the rate of decline was essentially the same as the previous two weeks. The main reason for the fluctuation of oil prices in the past week is the expected change of supply and demand: on the supply side, the resumption of negotiations between the UAE and OPEC means that the production increase plan is expected to proceed smoothly (Saudi Arabia agreed to raise the UAE's production reduction benchmark in exchange for the UAE's agreement to increase the overall production reduction agreement from 2022). April extended to the end of that year); On the demand side, the recent disturbance in COVID-19 pandemic and the market's concerns about the \"peaking\" of the US economy may make the market more cautious in judging crude oil demand to some extent.In our report \"Will oil prices be the next\" grey rhinoceros \"?\", it is pointed out that supply constraints are the key to oil price trends in the second half of the year. At present, it is a high probability that the increase in shale oil production in the United States will be limited. In the future, we need to pay close attention to whether OPEC + can stick to its previous commitment to increase production. If there is no significant increase in production, international oil prices may fluctuate at a high level in the range of 70-80 US dollars/barrel in the second half of the year.The prices of domestic black commodities (iron ore, rebar, thermal coal, etc.) have risen for 2-3 consecutive weeks. We reported in March \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\" It suggests the risk of a \"green bubble\", because behind the rise in copper prices, in addition to the real contradiction between supply and demand, there is also speculation and boost from the capital market. After a significant correction in mid-June, LME copper prices have recently remained within a narrow range of US $9,100-9,500/ton. At present, LME copper inventories have risen to a high level in nearly a year, and the shrinking of \"Biden infrastructure\" has also suppressed demand expectations. The tight copper supply and demand situation has shown some signs of easing.In the future, market inflation expectations and risk appetite may also fall back from high levels, and it may be more difficult for copper prices to rise and may experience more fluctuations.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e6ad7c58aefe649d33c4ac2321641d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880f378ea54447226750849c934fe3a0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4Foreign exchange market-the US Dollar Index hits new high since the second quarterThe US Dollar Index rose to 92.79 on July 13, surpassing the previous high of 92.72 on July 7 and setting a new high since April this year.How to understand the relationship between the recent decline in U.S. bond yields and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar? We believe that we need to pay attention to the difference between vertical and horizontal comparisons of the U.S. economy.Recently, the U.S. bond market is trading the \"peak\" of the U.S. economy, which is the main driving force behind the obvious decline of US Treasury yields. However, the recent epidemic situation in many places, including the United Kingdom, has counterattacked, and the economic prospects of non-US regions except the euro zone are still worrying. Therefore, the relative performance of the U.S. economy this year is still \"outstanding\", and the market's expectation of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is also constantly strengthening. We continue to maintain the judgment that the US dollar is expected to strengthen in stages in the second half of the year (refer to our report \"The Next Step of the US dollar\"). In addition, there are some new changes to support the strength of the US dollar recently: after the European Central Bank adjusts its monetary policy decisions, the European Central Bank may further accelerate the expansion of its balance sheet and delay Taper. The difference in the monetary policy rhythm between the US and European central banks may further release the appreciation space of the US dollar against the euro. It is worth noting that the U.S. dollar has mainly depreciated against developed markets since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its value against emerging markets this year has been basically the same as that in the second half of 2019, which may mean that the room for currency depreciation in emerging markets is relatively limited. In the past week, Bitcoin prices have hit a new low since February this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b6b3535060790986839dc811272b2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2421b79d6ce17f8f080b339b33ea9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476315\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f265653009ef8be3e9588861c69d25","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476315","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2152763544","content_text":"一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息”\n7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。\n整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派。这体现在：“标榜”宽松的货币政策对美国经济的积极影响，认为劳动力市场恢复还有很长的路要走，强调通胀率走高主要是基数效应与供应链瓶颈所致，不担心金融体系的脆弱性，以及强调美国经济尚未取得实施Taper所需的“实质性进一步进展”、Taper前会“提前通知”等。\n鲍威尔的证词公布后，市场亦感受到了熟悉的“鸽声”，6月美国通胀指标蹿升带来的市场恐慌稍有缓解。标普500指数盘中创新高，10年期美债收益率最深跌超5个基点，美元指数短线走低。值得注意的是，目前新西兰央行已经停止国债购买，加拿大央行已经开始实施Taper。我们认为，美联储仍在试图“不急转弯”，但未来一段时间如果美国就业市场如期恢复，通胀指标居高不下，加上外国央行“抢跑”，那么美联储的“借口”将更加不足，仍需警惕美联储政策转向比预期来得“更早”，或力度“更大”的风险。\n具体来看，鲍威尔证词中的重点信息包括：\n1）美国经济快速恢复，但供应链瓶颈对部分行业造成影响。鲍威尔认为，在2021年上半年，美国经济的重新开放和强劲的经济增长，一方面受新冠疫苗接种的帮助，另一方面也离不开宽松的货币和财政政策的支持。其中最明显的是，家庭支出正以特别快的速度增长，住房需求非常强劲，商业投资也在稳步增长。但与此同时，供应限制已经限制一些行业的活动，其中最明显的是汽车行业。今年迄今为止，全球半导体短缺已大幅削减了汽车行业的生产。\n2）劳动力市场状况持续改善，但仍有很长的路要走。鲍威尔认为，美国劳动力需求似乎非常强劲，目前职位空缺处于历史新高，招聘势头强劲，许多人离职而寻求更好的工作。4-6月美国雇主新增170万劳工。但是，6月美国失业率仍然高达5.9%，且这一数字还低估了就业恢复的不足，因劳动参与率仍然低迷。但随着疫情改善及其对就业的影响减少，未来几个月美国就业增长应该会强劲。此外，他还强调了低收入群体和有色人种的就业受影响更大，有待恢复。\n3）通胀率已经明显上升，且未来几月可能仍然居高不下，之后才会有所缓和。鲍威尔认为，第一是基数效应暂时推高通胀，第二是在需求旺盛的背景下，供给瓶颈导致某些商品和服务价格迅速上涨。但未来随着供应链瓶颈缓解，类似情况应会一定程度上得到逆转。近几个月，受疫情严重影响的服务价格也大幅上涨，因随着经济重新开放，服务业需求正在大幅上升。他强调美联储已经调整了货币政策框架，寻求将长期通胀预期稳定在2%，而衡量长期通胀预期的指标已从低点回升，目前处于与美联储长期通胀目标大致一致的区间。\n4）美联储尚不担心资产价格与金融体系脆弱性。鲍威尔表示，可持续地实现就业最大化和价格稳定取决于一个稳定的金融体系，因此美联储将继续监测金融体系的脆弱性。不过，尽管随着基本面改善和投资者风险偏好增强，各类资产估值普遍上升，但美国家庭资产负债表相当强劲，企业杠杆水平一直从高水平下降，处于金融体系核心的机构仍保持弹性。\n5）鲍威尔仍然否认经济已经取得“实质性进一步进展”，维持偏鸽论调。鲍威尔表示，“零利率”+资产购买的组合，加上对利率和资产负债表的“有力指导”，将确保货币政策继续为美国经济提供强有力的支持，直到复苏完成。其重申了6月FOMC会议的主要观点：对于利率调整而言，需要等到经济真正实现了最大就业和长期通胀目标；而对于资产购买，将至少维持现在的速度，直到取得“实质性进一步进展”（substantial further progress）。鲍威尔进一步透露，在6月议息会议上，委员会讨论了去年12月以来美国经济取得的进展，虽然距离达到“实质性进一步进展”的标准还有一段距离，但预计进展将继续下去。而美联储将在今后的会议中继续讨论这些问题。美联储将在宣布任何更改资产购买决定之前给出提前通知（provide advance notice）。\n二、海外经济跟踪\n1\n美国经济：6月通胀指标再创新高，非耐用品和服务消费逐渐起势\n美国6月CPI同比继续创新高，环比大涨0.9%，明显高于过去5年平均增速（0.2%左右）。分项看，大部分环比在加速，最“夸张”的是交通运输项环比大涨3.6%（前值2.1%），这仍是由于二手车价格的上涨。目前，比较难以判断二手车价格增速的拐点，下半年其对美国CPI仍可能带来超预期的拉动作用。\n\n美国6月PPI同比与环比增速也在创新高，所有分项环比均上涨，其中“贸易”分项环比大涨2.1%。近一个月，国际油价走高，不仅直接加大了能源品的成本压力，亦使国际运价上升以及美国进口商品价格大幅上涨。\n\n美国6月零售销售环比小幅上涨0.55%，好于预期和前值。零售销售的结构变化值得关注，“小件”销售好于“大件”，百货商店、服装配饰、食品饮料等销售连续上涨，而汽车、家具家装、建材物料等销售连续下滑。我们继续强调，下半年美国消费力量将由耐用品向非耐用品及服务转移，而服务消费是美国居民消费的大头，因此消费增长空间仍足。\n\n美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值明显滑落。物价快速攀升以及对于美国经济边际放缓的预期，可能均一定程度上抑制了消费信心。不过，就业指标仍传递了乐观信号，截至7月3日当周，美国持续申请失业金人数显著下降12.6万人，至324.1万人，最新的初请失业金人数也继续下降。随着美国额外失业补贴的陆续到期，美国就业快速恢复仍是有希望的。\n\n2\n海外疫情与疫苗跟踪：全球新一波疫情来袭\n自6月下旬尤其7月以来，全球或正处于新一波疫情来临的起点。此前是印度疫情显著抬头并对全球经济造成了一定程度的威胁。但目前印度疫情已经逐渐缓和，而新一波疫情所波及的范围更大，目前很多地区受Delta病毒扰动，新增确诊重新上升。欧洲方面，英国疫情率先抬头，并开始逼近今年1月的高点，但英国将于7月19日全面解封（佩戴口罩、1米社交距离、居家办公、公共场所人员密度等限制将解除），这是一个值得关注的全球防疫政策的新动向。近一周法国新增确诊也出现了抬头迹象，德国、意大利等其他欧盟国家疫情尚稳定。日本疫情刚刚缓和不久，近一周又明显上升，奥运会举办在即，疫情风险受到全球关注。东南亚国家疫情“此消彼长”，近期是越南、泰国等国家显著恶化，相关股市亦受到明显冲击。以色列疫情也意外反扑，疫苗接种对于新病毒的效用可能“打折”。不过，进一步看英国疫情数据，疫苗接种在很大程度上降低了死亡率，未来新冠疫情会否像“流感”一样虽持续生存但影响可控，不是没有可能。但是，对全球疫情的担忧，一定程度上正在使近期资本市场风险偏好降温，再通胀交易受到质疑，值得继续关注。\n\n\n三、全球资产表现\n1\n全球股市——新兴市场反弹、发达市场回调\n新兴市场尤其亚洲新兴市场股市，因疫情反扑和“紧缩恐慌”的戒备之心，自6月下旬开始一直跑输发达市场。而近一周终于等到反弹，韩国、印度、中国台湾、墨西哥、中国（创业板和沪深300）、印尼、巴西等主要市场股指皆有上涨。与此同时，大部分发达市场股市回调，但美股道指（-0.5%）跌幅小于纳指（-1.9%），美股周期板块表现出更强韧性。\n越南股市近两周遭遇重创，7月14日越南胡志明指数较7月2日下跌了近10%。今年以来越南股市表现亮眼，7月以前基本维持单边上涨趋势，越南强劲的出口表现是市场信心的基石。据Vietnamplus报道，今年1-6月越南货物出口额同比增长28.4%。但需注意下半年外需边际放缓后越南市场可能出现的信心变化。7月5日、11日和16日越南单日新增确诊数分别破1000、2000和4000例，而今年5月以前该数字均未超过100。疫情陡然升温应是这次股市调整的导火索。\n2\n全球债市——10年美债实际利率跌破-1%\n近一周，长端美债收益率继续下降，7年期及以上美债收益率整周跌4-6bp。10年美债收益率整周跌6bp，至1.31%，其中10年TIPS（实际）利率跌11bp，至-1.02%，隐含通胀预期升5bp，至2.33%。7月15日，10年TIPS利率跌破-1%，创2月12日以来新低。近期10年美债收益率降至此前难以想象的低位，主因是市场对于美国经济前景信心不足：一方面，美国财政计划规模打折，拉低了市场对美国的中长期通胀预期。且通胀指标虽然仍然短期“爆表”，但由于通胀预期已经处于历史高位，市场很难继续大幅押注。而疫苗接种速度放缓、变异病毒扰动等因素。加剧了市场对于下半年“群体免疫”能否实现，经济活动能否按时重启的担忧，致使美债实际利率明显下滑。前期市场已经很大程度上将乐观预期纳入资产定价，造就了不断创新高的美股和美国公司债，近期市场无疑正在经历预期上的巨大变化。全球债市方面，大部分地区10y国债/公债继续随美债走牛，但泰国、马来西亚等地区因疫情急剧恶化、国债收益率上升。\n\n\n3\n商品市场——油价回落，黑色系连涨，农产品反弹\n近一周，国际油价明显回调，WTI原油和布伦特原油期货价整周分别跌3.7%和2.6%，分别收于71.81和73.59美元/桶。然而，截至7月9日当周，EIA美国原油库存继续下降790万桶，下降速度与前两周基本持平。近一周油价波动的主因是供给和需求预期变化：供给方面，阿联酋与OPEC恢复谈判意味着增产计划有望顺利进行（沙特同意将阿联酋的减产基准调高，以换取阿联酋同意将整体减产协议从2022年4月延长至当年年底）；需求方面，近期新冠疫情扰动以及市场对于美国经济“见顶”的担忧，都可能一定程度上使市场对原油需求的判断更加谨慎。我们在报告《油价会不会是下一个“灰犀牛”？》中指出，供给约束是下半年油价走势之关键。目前，美国页岩油增产受限是大概率，未来需密切关注OPEC+能否坚守前期增产承诺。假如未出现大幅增产，则下半年国际油价可能在70-80美元/桶区间高位震荡。\n国内黑色系商品（铁矿石、螺纹钢、动力煤等）价格连续2-3周上涨。我们在3月报告《大宗商品的“超级周期”来了吗？》提示了“绿色泡沫”的风险，因铜价涨价背后，除了真实供需矛盾外，还有来自资本市场的炒作与助推。LME铜价自6月中旬显著回调后，近期保持在9100-9500美元/吨内窄幅震荡。目前，LME铜库存升至近一年以来的高位，“拜登基建”缩水亦对需求预期形成打压，铜供需紧张的局面出现一些缓解迹象。未来一段时间，市场通胀预期与风险偏好亦可能于高位回落，铜价上行或更加困难，可能经历更多波动。\n4\n外汇市场——美元指数创2季度以来新高\n7月13日美元指数升至92.79，超过7月7日92.72的前期高点，创下今年4月以来的新高。如何理解近期美债收益率下降与美元升值的关系？我们认为，需要注意美国经济纵向和横向比较的区别。近期，美债市场正在交易美国经济“见顶”，这是美债利率明显回落的主要驱动力量。然而，近期包括英国在内的多地疫情反扑，除欧元区外的非美地区经济前景仍然堪忧。因此，美国经济在今年的相对表现仍然是“一枝独秀”的，市场对于美元阶段走强的预期也在不断强化。我们继续维持下半年美元有望阶段性走强的判断（参考我们报告《美元下一步》）。此外，最近还有一些新的变化支撑美元走强：欧洲央行调整货币政策决策后，欧洲央行可能进一步加快扩表，并延缓Taper，美欧央行货币政策节奏的差异，可能令美元兑欧元的升值空间进一步释放。值得注意的是，美元自新冠疫情爆发以来主要是对发达市场贬值，而今年以来对新兴市场的价值基本持平于2019年下半年水平，这或意味着新兴市场货币贬值的空间是相对有限的。近一周，比特币价格触碰今年2月以来新低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2090,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}