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2021-07-21

What's next for oil prices after a new OPEC + deal?

欧佩克+在最近的与协议中决定将逐步提高欧佩克的月度产量。这个协议不容易达成，需要各方面的谈判和妥协。据报道，此前沙特与阿联酋之间的分歧在于阿联酋方面希望提高产量上限，但零对冲分析师David Mess

What's next for oil prices after a new OPEC + deal?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":176315607,"tweetId":"176315607","gmtCreate":1626861532509,"gmtModify":1703479462966,"author":{"id":3577013325481265,"idStr":"3577013325481265","authorId":3577013325481265,"authorIdStr":"3577013325481265","name":"LLMMYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0673bd7a83e6b36e742df4a0eec734f4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","text":"??","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176315607","repostId":2153582617,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153582617","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626860521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153582617?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 17:42","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"What's next for oil prices after a new OPEC + deal?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153582617","media":"格隆汇","summary":"欧佩克+在最近的与协议中决定将逐步提高欧佩克的月度产量。这个协议不容易达成，需要各方面的谈判和妥协。据报道，此前沙特与阿联酋之间的分歧在于阿联酋方面希望提高产量上限，但零对冲分析师David Mess","content":"OPEC + decided in its recent agreement that it would gradually increase OPEC's monthly production. This agreement is not easy to reach and requires negotiation and compromise from all sides. According to reports, the previous difference between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates was that the United Arab Emirates wanted to increase the production cap.But Zero Hedge analyst David Messler pointed out that in fact, this is not the only factor that has led to the UAE's new demands in OPEC.<h3>Saudi Arabia and UAE differences</h3>For a long time, there have been differences between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the \"peak oil theory\".Because,Saudi Arabia has been vigorously promoting the Vision 2030 plan, which includes a series of large-scale projects aimed at significantly reducing the kingdom's revenue dependence on oil exports and diversifying its revenue by 2030.But the plan was not implemented as successfully as originally hoped. In fact, most of the actual increase in revenue came from new taxes, not new external investments. Revenue forecasts from non-oil sources are less than half of what was planned.Some of these problems may be related to certain missteps by the Saudi crown prince. Saudi journalist killed, Aramco privatization failed to attract much external interest, a $200 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>The failure of power farms to gain enough support to break away from plans, as well as attempts to start nuclear power projects, have combined to contribute to the weakening of investment incentives.To make matters worse, the Saudi economy shrank by 3% due to the impact of the epidemic. Saudi Arabia has struggled to balance its books amid many problems such as weak growth within the economy due to high taxes and subsidy cuts.This gives rise to a vicious circle, and with external cash inflows insufficient to meet their economic needs, the Saudis have renewed their commitment to depending on oil for longer in the future, and they now see oil production again as the backbone of the economy for decades to come. An energy consultant in Dubai said:\"In the past five years, Saudi Arabia has made little progress in reducing its dependence on oil export revenues. So it may take more than 30 years to get rid of its dependence on oil.\" They believe that the transition to renewable energy has a decades-long span, with demand for oil and related derivatives remaining relatively high during the transition. Therefore, for Saudi Arabia, an oil price of US $70 or close to US $70 will greatly support economic development.In contrast, the UAE has achieved greater success in many aspects.First, the UAE's partial privatization of ADNOC properties and the sale of shares in ADNOC subsidiaries attracted US $25 billion in foreign capital into the country and avoided the trauma caused by the IPO process. Secondly, the UAE is building a power plant of more than 400 megawatts to generate electricity; In the field of nuclear power, the United Arab Emirates also opened a nuclear power plant this year, surpassing Saudi Arabia in scale. The UAE has successfully introduced a new futures contract for its benchmark crude oil production, called murban. This is to promote crude oil trading and optimize the price system under the OPEC production restriction agreement. In the future, the UAE also hopes to go further in the oil industry chain by expanding the $45 billion Ruwais industrial complex. In this plan, the country's refining capacity will be doubled and a huge petrochemical complex will be built. Its pipeline construction has also received support from many major European oil companies, with an investment plan of US $122 billion. A variety of factors have injected life into the UAE's oil industry, allowing it to significantly increase production in the short term.Therefore, their view is that the time span of the energy transition will be shorter, which may lead to the \"stranding\" of a large amount of crude oil reserves, so they have to increase production and accelerate reserve consumption regardless of the impact of prices.In addition, judging from the history of the Middle East, the UAE tends to do whatever it takes to preserve its competitive advantage in the region.Tensions between the UAE and Israel have eased in recent years amid U.S.-brokered peace deals, but have also deepened mistrust between the two countries. In addition, due to the Palestinian issue, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates still have serious differences on the Israel issue.With the recurrence of regional wars, it is clear that the UAE must work to break the aura brought by OPEC + to protect its interests.This divergence of views has led to the UAE's deliberate move out of the Saudi shadow in the discussion around output, which has led to the stalemate.<h3>What is the impact of the new OPEC + deal on oil supplies?</h3>Judging from the announcement of last Sunday's meeting, most of the UAE's goals for increasing production have been achieved. On the other hand, other countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and Iraq, have also seen their benchmark quotas increase, which this time seems to be a win-win situation.With the extension of the production reduction agreement until December 2022, Saudi Arabia is also worried about the excessive supply of oil in the market, causing prices to fall, not to mention the factors of Iran and the United States have not been taken into account-Once sanctions are lifted, Iran may restore at least about 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil; Agencies including EIA predict that the United States will significantly increase shale oil production in 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a41b3a52c12e33d4e4f581bc278dd0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">However, David believes global markets can easily absorb this crude as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic.The service and supply industries have undergone earth-shaking changes in the past three years, but there are not many drilling rigs and pumps that can be deployed in the United States. Most shale oil companies would rather adjust their asset structure and improve Dividend dividends to maintain investor confidence. Will not increase crude oil production.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488fa52b1f36dc6213cf10b297de72bb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data from: EIA/PrimaryVisionIn this regard, David said:\"The next variable will be the rapid spread of the Delta variant virus. In my opinion, although it is more contagious than the original strain, with the help of vaccines, the infection rate is more controllable than the previous wave of epidemics. It is reported that vaccines are in The effectiveness of preventing infection is close to 97%. Therefore, this epidemic will not cause widespread panic.Considering all of these factors-the OPEC + agreement, production rates, and North American shale activity levels, the result is that oil price trends will be higher despite volatility caused by market-driven sentiment changes. With the announcement of vaccine effectiveness, the economic recovery that began last year will continue, and investors should view the sell-off of the past few weeks as a buying opportunity. \"","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's next for oil prices after a new OPEC + deal?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's next for oil prices after a new OPEC + deal?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2021-07-21 17:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOPEC + decided in its recent agreement that it would gradually increase OPEC's monthly production. This agreement is not easy to reach and requires negotiation and compromise from all sides. According to reports, the previous difference between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates was that the United Arab Emirates wanted to increase the production cap.But Zero Hedge analyst David Messler pointed out that in fact, this is not the only factor that has led to the UAE's new demands in OPEC.<h3>Saudi Arabia and UAE differences</h3>For a long time, there have been differences between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the \"peak oil theory\".Because,Saudi Arabia has been vigorously promoting the Vision 2030 plan, which includes a series of large-scale projects aimed at significantly reducing the kingdom's revenue dependence on oil exports and diversifying its revenue by 2030.But the plan was not implemented as successfully as originally hoped. In fact, most of the actual increase in revenue came from new taxes, not new external investments. Revenue forecasts from non-oil sources are less than half of what was planned.Some of these problems may be related to certain missteps by the Saudi crown prince. Saudi journalist killed, Aramco privatization failed to attract much external interest, a $200 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>The failure of power farms to gain enough support to break away from plans, as well as attempts to start nuclear power projects, have combined to contribute to the weakening of investment incentives.To make matters worse, the Saudi economy shrank by 3% due to the impact of the epidemic. Saudi Arabia has struggled to balance its books amid many problems such as weak growth within the economy due to high taxes and subsidy cuts.This gives rise to a vicious circle, and with external cash inflows insufficient to meet their economic needs, the Saudis have renewed their commitment to depending on oil for longer in the future, and they now see oil production again as the backbone of the economy for decades to come. An energy consultant in Dubai said:\"In the past five years, Saudi Arabia has made little progress in reducing its dependence on oil export revenues. So it may take more than 30 years to get rid of its dependence on oil.\" They believe that the transition to renewable energy has a decades-long span, with demand for oil and related derivatives remaining relatively high during the transition. Therefore, for Saudi Arabia, an oil price of US $70 or close to US $70 will greatly support economic development.In contrast, the UAE has achieved greater success in many aspects.First, the UAE's partial privatization of ADNOC properties and the sale of shares in ADNOC subsidiaries attracted US $25 billion in foreign capital into the country and avoided the trauma caused by the IPO process. Secondly, the UAE is building a power plant of more than 400 megawatts to generate electricity; In the field of nuclear power, the United Arab Emirates also opened a nuclear power plant this year, surpassing Saudi Arabia in scale. The UAE has successfully introduced a new futures contract for its benchmark crude oil production, called murban. This is to promote crude oil trading and optimize the price system under the OPEC production restriction agreement. In the future, the UAE also hopes to go further in the oil industry chain by expanding the $45 billion Ruwais industrial complex. In this plan, the country's refining capacity will be doubled and a huge petrochemical complex will be built. Its pipeline construction has also received support from many major European oil companies, with an investment plan of US $122 billion. A variety of factors have injected life into the UAE's oil industry, allowing it to significantly increase production in the short term.Therefore, their view is that the time span of the energy transition will be shorter, which may lead to the \"stranding\" of a large amount of crude oil reserves, so they have to increase production and accelerate reserve consumption regardless of the impact of prices.In addition, judging from the history of the Middle East, the UAE tends to do whatever it takes to preserve its competitive advantage in the region.Tensions between the UAE and Israel have eased in recent years amid U.S.-brokered peace deals, but have also deepened mistrust between the two countries. In addition, due to the Palestinian issue, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates still have serious differences on the Israel issue.With the recurrence of regional wars, it is clear that the UAE must work to break the aura brought by OPEC + to protect its interests.This divergence of views has led to the UAE's deliberate move out of the Saudi shadow in the discussion around output, which has led to the stalemate.<h3>What is the impact of the new OPEC + deal on oil supplies?</h3>Judging from the announcement of last Sunday's meeting, most of the UAE's goals for increasing production have been achieved. On the other hand, other countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and Iraq, have also seen their benchmark quotas increase, which this time seems to be a win-win situation.With the extension of the production reduction agreement until December 2022, Saudi Arabia is also worried about the excessive supply of oil in the market, causing prices to fall, not to mention the factors of Iran and the United States have not been taken into account-Once sanctions are lifted, Iran may restore at least about 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil; Agencies including EIA predict that the United States will significantly increase shale oil production in 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a41b3a52c12e33d4e4f581bc278dd0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">However, David believes global markets can easily absorb this crude as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic.The service and supply industries have undergone earth-shaking changes in the past three years, but there are not many drilling rigs and pumps that can be deployed in the United States. Most shale oil companies would rather adjust their asset structure and improve Dividend dividends to maintain investor confidence. Will not increase crude oil production.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488fa52b1f36dc6213cf10b297de72bb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data from: EIA/PrimaryVisionIn this regard, David said:\"The next variable will be the rapid spread of the Delta variant virus. In my opinion, although it is more contagious than the original strain, with the help of vaccines, the infection rate is more controllable than the previous wave of epidemics. It is reported that vaccines are in The effectiveness of preventing infection is close to 97%. Therefore, this epidemic will not cause widespread panic.Considering all of these factors-the OPEC + agreement, production rates, and North American shale activity levels, the result is that oil price trends will be higher despite volatility caused by market-driven sentiment changes. With the announcement of vaccine effectiveness, the economic recovery that began last year will continue, and investors should view the sell-off of the past few weeks as a buying opportunity. \"\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476817\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de019d346ae215b032b548e12d784857","relate_stocks":{"UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476817","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2153582617","content_text":"欧佩克+在最近的与协议中决定将逐步提高欧佩克的月度产量。这个协议不容易达成，需要各方面的谈判和妥协。据报道，此前沙特与阿联酋之间的分歧在于阿联酋方面希望提高产量上限，但零对冲分析师David Messler指出，事实上，这并不是导致阿联酋在欧佩克中有新诉求的唯一因素。\n沙特和阿联酋的分歧\n一直以来，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋之间对“石油峰值论”存在分歧。\n因为，沙特一直在大力推进2030年愿景计划，这项计划包括一系列大型项目，旨在到2030年大幅减少王国对石油出口的收入依赖，实现收入多元化。但计划实施得并不像最初希望的那样成功，事实上，实际增加的收入大部分来自新税收，而不是新的外部投资。非石油来源的收入预测不到计划的一半。\n其中一些问题可能与沙特王储的某些失误有关。沙特记者被杀、沙特阿美私有化未能吸引太多外部利益、一个价值2000亿美元的太阳能发电场未能获得足够的支持以脱离计划，以及试图启动核电项目，这些因素共同导致了投资动力的衰弱。\n雪上加霜的是，沙特经济因疫情的影响萎缩了3%。高税收和补贴削减导致经济内部增长疲软等诸多问题，沙特一直在努力平衡其账目。\n这就产生了恶性循环，由于外部现金流入不足以满足其经济需求，沙特重新承诺在未来更长时间地依赖石油，他们现在将石油生产重新视为未来几十年经济的支柱。迪拜一位能源顾问表示：\n\n “过去五年，沙特阿拉伯在减轻对石油出口收入的依赖方面进展甚微。因此摆脱对石油的依赖可能需要30多年的时间。”\n\n他们认为向可再生能源的过渡有一个长达数十年的跨度，石油和相关衍生品在过渡期间的需求仍保持相对较高的水平。所以，对于沙特来说，70美元或接近70美元的油价将极大地支撑经济发展。\n而相比之下，阿联酋在多个方面取得了更大的成功。\n\n 首先，阿联酋对ADNOC财产的进行部分私有化，出售ADNOC子公司的股份，吸引了250亿美元的外国资本进入该国，避免了IPO过程带来的创伤。\n\n\n 其次，阿联酋正在修建一座400多兆瓦的发电厂发电；而在核电领域，阿联酋今年也开启了一个核发电厂，规模超过了沙特。阿联酋成功地为其基准原油生产引入了新的期货合约，称为穆尔班。这是为了在欧佩克限产协议之下促进原油交易和优化价格体系。\n\n\n 未来，阿联酋还希望通过扩建450亿美元的Ruwais工业综合体，在石油工业链中走得更远。在这项计划中，该国的炼油能力将翻一番，并将建设一个巨大的石化综合体。其管道建设也获得了多个欧洲大油企的支持，投资计划规模达到1220亿美元。\n\n种种因素为阿联酋的石油行业注入了活力，使其能够在短期内大幅增加产量。所以他们的看法是，能源转型时间跨度会较短，这可能会导致大量原油储备“搁浅”，因此他们要不顾价格影响而提高产量，加快储备消耗。\n另外，从中东历史来看，阿联酋倾向于不惜一切代价以保存自己在该地区的竞争优势。\n近年来，在美国斡旋的和平协议中，阿联酋和以色列之间的紧张局势得到缓解，但也加深了这两个国家之间的不信任。另外，由于巴勒斯坦问题，沙特在以色列问题上和阿联酋仍然存在严重分歧。\n随着区域战争的反复出现，很明显阿联酋必须努力打破欧佩克+带来的光环来保护其利益。这种观点分歧导致阿联酋在围绕产量的讨论中有意摆脱沙特的阴影，这就导致了僵局。\n欧佩克+新达成的协议对石油供应有何影响？\n从上周日会议的公告来看，阿联酋关于增产的大部分目的已达成。另一方面，包括沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、科威特和伊拉克在内的其他国家的基准配额也有所提高，这一次似乎是共赢。\n随着减产协议延长至2022年12月，沙特也因担心市面上石油供应过多导致价格下跌，更何况还没考虑到伊朗和美国的因素——一旦解除制裁，伊朗可能至少会恢复约150万桶/日的原油；而包括EIA在内的机构预计，美国2022年将大幅增产页岩油。\n\n然而，David认为，随着经济从疫情中继续复苏，全球市场可以轻松吸收这些原油。\n服务和供应行业在过去三年发生了翻天覆地的变化，但美国可部署的钻机和泵并不多，大多数页岩油企业宁愿调整资产结构，以及改善股息分红来维持投资者信心的意图，也不会增产原油。\n\n数据来自：EIA/PrimaryVision\n对此，David表示：\n“下一个变量将是Delta变异病毒的快速传播。在我看来，虽然它比原始毒株更具传染性，但在疫苗帮助之下，感染率比上一波疫情更可控，据悉疫苗在预防感染方面的有效性接近97%。因此这次疫情不会引起广泛的恐慌。\n考虑到所有这些因素——欧佩克+协议、生产率和北美页岩活动水平，得出的结果是，尽管市场驱动的情绪变化导致波动，但石油价格趋势将会更高。随着疫苗有效性的宣布，去年开始的经济复苏将继续下去，投资者应该将过去几周的抛售视为买入机会。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"USO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}