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爱学习的汤小白
2021-06-11

Tiger is here！

With new economy companies in the top ten A-shares, will Ningde era be the next Moutai?

宁德时代市值起伏的背后，是一场产业话语权之战。 5月31日这天，电池制造商与技术公司宁德时代（SZ.300750）市值突破了一万亿元。当日早盘，宁德时代盘中涨超4%，成为了创业板上首家万亿市值的公

With new economy companies in the top ten A-shares, will Ningde era be the next Moutai?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":181564504,"tweetId":"181564504","gmtCreate":1623402509508,"gmtModify":1704202633134,"author":{"id":3584688369185777,"idStr":"3584688369185777","authorId":3584688369185777,"authorIdStr":"3584688369185777","name":"爱学习的汤小白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae3ea295e38de39b2e19cc704daffc0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Tiger is here！</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Tiger is here！</body></html>","text":"Tiger is here！","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181564504","repostId":1152830507,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152830507","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"甲子光年是一家科技智库，包含智库、媒体、社群、企业服务版块，立足于中国科技创新前沿阵地，动态跟踪头部科技企业发展和传统产业技术升级案例，致力于推动人工智能、大数据、物联网、云计算、信息安全、金融科技、大健康等科技创新在产业之中的应用与落地。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"甲子光年","id":"1060712205","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d8917446074b2faa502a5c7b6e804c"},"pubTimestamp":1623292246,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152830507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 10:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"With new economy companies in the top ten A-shares, will Ningde era be the next Moutai?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152830507","media":"甲子光年","summary":"宁德时代市值起伏的背后，是一场产业话语权之战。\n\n5月31日这天，电池制造商与技术公司宁德时代（SZ.300750）市值突破了一万亿元。\n当日早盘，宁德时代盘中涨超4%，成为了创业板上首家万亿市值的公","content":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Behind the ups and downs of market value is a battle for the right to speak in the industry. On May 31, the market value of battery manufacturer and technology company CATL (SZ.300750) exceeded one trillion yuan.In early trading that day, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited rose more than 4% intraday, becoming the first company with a trillion-dollar market value on the GEM. Its founder, Zeng Yuqun, also took advantage of the trillion-dollar market value and surpassed Li Ka-shing with a net worth of US $39.2 billion, becoming the richest man in Hong Kong, China.What is more historically significant is that Ningde Times has thus become one of the top ten companies in China's A-share market by market value, and is the only new economy company among them. Except for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the top ten A-share companies by market capitalization today are all familiar names:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Two wine companies,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">Industrial Bank of China</a>Waiting for 6 banks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life Insurance</a>Two financial companies that started as insurance companies.Why CATL? This is the question of many people. Prior to this, I'm afraid many people will pin their hopes of sprinting to the top ten market capitalization of A-shares on Tencent,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Wait on you. But like most Chinese new economy companies, they have not chosen to list on the mainland.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/659745bbce65466a3fbc635b83cc72cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The capital market is a reflection of the real economy. Before 2019, among A-share companies, the mainstream was the tertiary industry headed by banks. New economy enterprises account for a relatively small proportion.In June 2018, CATL went public, with an opening price of 30.17 yuan per share on the day of listing. In the next two years, CATL's market value ranking has been hovering at 34th and 35th in the entire market. As of May 31 this year, CATL's stock price reached 434.1 yuan per share, an increase of 1340.04% compared with three years ago.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ecd6ca9e91a7a8e7d5e35b5e75ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2005, there were only 2 information technology companies among the top ten companies in the U.S. stock market by value, and in 2020 it will reach 5; Annual Report 2012<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Become the largest company by market capitalization in the US stock market.Is the Ningde era overvalued? Also a leader in power batteries<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>(SZ.002594), the current market value is 573.5 billion yuan, only half of that of the Ningde era. BYD's listed companies not only include batteries, but also new energy vehicles, mobile phone electronics and photovoltaics. In the automobile industry downstream of the power battery industry, BYD, the top three main car manufacturers in the A-share market value,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">SAIC Group</a>The total market value of Ningde era is 1,088.1 billion yuan, only slightly exceeding the market value of Ningde era.According to the operating data in 2020, CATL's net profit is 5.58 billion, and its total operating income is 50.3 billion. In other words, the trillion market value corresponds to a P/E of 180 times and a price-to-sales ratio of 20 times. With the activity of the global financial market and the promotion of the energy revolution, while a number of gasoline companies are heading for \"sunset red\", young companies in the new energy field are boiling on the bubble.The highlights of the Ningde era didn't last long. Before the market closed on the morning of June 1, CATL fell by more than 5%, and its market value fell back to 997.3 billion.Jiazi Guangnian interviewed many front-line practitioners in the battery and new energy vehicle industries and came to the following views:<ol><li>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's stock price began to skyrocket in 2020, during the same period, there was a global financial release;</li><li>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's number one position in automotive batteries is facing challenges;</li><li>CATL only has to face competition from other battery manufacturers, and major car manufacturers are also making batteries;</li><li>Betting on sodium batteries, it is hard to say whether CATL's competitiveness in batteries can be improved.</li></ol>1. Who directed the \"popularity\" of the Ningde era?The trillion-dollar market value of CATL was not achieved in a day. In 2020, its ranking in the A-share market jumped to 11th place, an increase of more than 20 places from before.At the same time, the stock price of CATL has soared in 2020, and will reach the 400 yuan/share mark at the beginning of 2021, and then surpass<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">PetroChina</a>。 During this period, it not only often appeared on the Snowball Hot Stock List, but was also used as a benchmark company for comparison by major brokerage reports, which is not the same as the stable state in 2018 and 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ed505c641f51b919a89da7892eb589\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited stockFrom a macro perspective, CATL is favored by two major factors, one is the excess liquidity of funds, and the other is the demand for carbon reduction.On the one hand, the global financial system has released a lot of water, and more money has flowed into the market.In 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic led to the shutdown of global economic activities, and central banks represented by the Federal Reserve began to implement unprecedented ultra-loose monetary policies. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2020, more than 50 central banks around the world have cut interest rates or cut interest rates multiple times, and more than 60% of the world's economies have interest rates less than 1%.Simultaneously with capital inflows, more people enter the stock market. In 2020, there were 18.0225 million new investors, which was also a four-year high. In December last year alone, the number of new investors doubled.The immediate result is to push up the valuations of financial assets, including stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601988\">BANK OF CHINA</a>Zhao Xueqing, a researcher at the Institute of International Monetary Studies at Renmin University of China, once said: Long-term unlimited monetary easing may boost financial \"inflation.\" The financial market continues to be in a low or even negative interest rate environment, which will contribute to the price bubble of financial assets.The process of stock price expansion in the Ningde era is synchronized with the entry of capital and investors.On the other hand, the demand for carbon reduction has ushered in development opportunities for new energy vehicles, which has also driven power batteries located in the middle reaches of the new energy vehicle industry chain. Ningde era is sought after by the market, which is also the result of this force.At the beginning of this year, while the sales of new energy vehicles were rising steadily, Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the New Energy Vehicle Venture Capital Sub-fund of the National Science and Technology Achievements Transformation Fund, predicted this year's trend: In 2021 I<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>Car sales are expected to be around 1.8 million units, and the installed capacity of power batteries will increase by more than 30% year-on-year. At that time, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited successfully \"got out of the circle\" with a recruitment notice-the company set up major bonus incentives to encourage employees to stay and work overtime due to the surge in year-end orders.2020 is the time when electric vehicles will move from policy-driven to market-driven. The battery system is the component with the highest cost proportion in new energy vehicles, nearly 40%. It can be said to be the heart of new energy vehicles. The surge in demand for electric vehicles has driven the growth of the power battery industry. Last year, my country's power battery installed capacity totaled 63.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and power battery shipments were 80GWh, a year-on-year increase of 13%. As of April 2021, new Energy vehicle sales have hit record highs for 10 consecutive months.This is the same as the booming stock price of CATL, which is also the same as the trajectory.Among various energy storage methods, power batteries are currently the one with the greatest demand and the most implementation scenarios. The downstream of the power battery industry chain includes new energy vehicles, consumer electronics and energy storage. In other words, from e-cigarettes and electric bicycles to new energy vehicles and industrial power systems, power batteries are used everywhere. According to a report released by Adroit Market Research, an international market research organization, the global lithium-ion battery market is estimated to exceed US $100 billion by 2025. Of course, such estimates also catch up with the new energy vehicle industry.Chen Wenhui, vice chairman of the National Council for Social Security Fund, once said at the \"2021 Caijing Sustainable Development Summit Forum\",\"The market value of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited exceeds that of PetroChina, and the battle between new energy and traditional energy seems to be decided.\"Industrial transformation and policy dividends are huge market space, upward growth trend and good investment targets in the eyes of investors.Despite the volatility, CATL's stock price is still high so far. But how long can these good days last? Actually, there is a question mark. The new energy concept sector and company have experienced ups and downs in the past two years:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The stock price soared 650% last year, but since the beginning of this year, its stock price has dropped from a high of $880 to a low of $582, a drop of more than 30%. Another representative is the photovoltaic sector. Last year, the total market value once approached one trillion yuan, and the photovoltaic index rose by 110.80%. However, in only 6 trading days in February this year, it fell by about 300 billion yuan.2. With a market value of one trillion yuan, is CATL worth it?It should be pointed out that there is still a basis for the surge in CATL's stock price, and the company's performance has also experienced explosive growth during the same period.Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has firmly established its position as the leader in power batteries.As of the first quarter of 2021, CATL's power battery installed capacity ranked first in the country with a market share of 52.45%.At the 100th anniversary celebration meeting of Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shen Nanpeng, global managing partner of Sequoia Capital, asked Zeng Yuqun a question: If there are only 10 car companies left in the future, how many of these 10 companies will come from China? Zeng Yuqun said: I think 70% will come from China.This judgment stems from the understanding of the development potential of China's new energy vehicle industry, and Zeng Yuqun has long seized the opportunity to lay out the new energy battery industry.In 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the \"Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions\", stipulating that if new energy vehicles want to receive subsidies, they must use batteries produced by whitelisted companies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>LG<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Japanese and Korean battery giants have not entered this catalog, which puts domestic power battery companies on the fast lane with policy protection, and also gives the previously unknown Ningde era an opportunity to overtake in corners.It is not enough to get rid of foreign friends and businessmen, and the subsequent support policies have made CATL \"lucky\" to get rid of domestic competitors.The national subsidy standard for new energy vehicles is based on the cruising range. Ternary lithium batteries with larger cruising range can receive more subsidies. BYD,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002074\">Guoxuan High-Tech</a>The main one is the lithium iron phosphate route, which is gradually left out by OEMs because of the relatively small subsidies available.At the same time, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also chose the right path of development. Due to its self-sufficient model, BYD does not provide large-scale external supplies in the battery supply chain, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech also mainly cooperates with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600418\">Jianghuai Motors</a>The scale of cooperation is also relatively limited, so it misses the opportunity for expansion.As a result, CATL has gradually become the leader of domestic battery suppliers.In 2017, China's sales of new energy vehicles reached 770,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 53%, ranking first in global sales. It was also in 2017 that CATL surpassed Japan's Panasonic and became the world's largest power battery manufacturer.Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also knows how to \"hold the thighs\" to expand brand awareness. Cooperation with BMW is a typical case. In 2012, only one year after its establishment, CATL began to produce power batteries for BMW's first pure electric vehicle \"Zino 1E\", becoming the first domestic power battery manufacturer to enter the supply chain system of leading car companies.With this, Ningde era became an instant hit.BMW's brand effect has brought many followers, including traditional car companies such as SAIC, Changan, and Geely.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng, Ideal and other new forces have since cooperated with CATL, and Tesla, which entered China, has also invested in the embrace of CATL.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Founder Li Xiang once said in an interview: The way car companies want to cooperate with CATL is often for the chairman to queue up to them to ask for batteries.There are also reports that in order to successfully obtain goods from CATL,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>He XPeng, the founder, also had to rush to Ningde in person.According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from 2018 to 2020, CATL's domestic market share basically remained at about half.3. A flash in the pan? Income and gross profit are difficult to guaranteeHowever, from the situation that the market value fell in one day, it can already be seen that the trillion-dollar market value of the Ningde era may still lack support.From the perspective of profits, CATL is already in a decline. CATL's financial report data shows that the company's power battery system operating income in 2017 was 16.657 billion yuan, operating costs were 10.785 billion yuan, and gross profit margin was 35.25%. In the following three years, the gross profit margin of CATL's power battery system continued to decline. In 2018, the gross profit margin of CATL's power battery system was 34.10%. In 2019, the gross profit margin of its power battery system was 28.45%. By 2020, the gross profit margin of its power battery system has become 26.56%.Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has also repeatedly mentioned the risk of declining gross profit margins in \"possible risks\". The company explained in its financial report that the change in the gross profit margin of each product segment of the company is the result of the comprehensive impact of changes in sales unit price and unit cost. If factors such as the intensification of market competition or the adjustment of national policies in the future lead to adverse changes in the selling price of the company's products and the purchase price of raw materials, there is a risk that the company's gross profit margin will decline.At present, the price fluctuations of cobalt and upstream raw materials exceed expectations, putting huge pressure on battery production costs. For example<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>According to the aspect, the penetration of large-size new energy vehicles is expected to drive the growth of demand for lithium salts, and the price of lithium hydroxide is expected to continue to rise. As of June 3, according to SMM's spot quotation, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 91,500 yuan/ton, a surge of 84.8% from the beginning of the year.The bigger pain point is that CATL can no longer dominate the market share of new energy vehicles.As of the end of April 2021, CATL's monthly installed vehicle volume was 3.82 GWh, and its domestic market share was 45.5%. Compared with the market share of 52.6% in the first quarter of this year and the company's market share of 50% in 2020, CATL has obviously lacked momentum.Some people from car companies have said that CATL is too strong, and car manufacturers will deliberately support other battery factories to balance. Big car brands are unlikely to allow one supply chain to dominate.In order to \"compete\" with the Ningde era, Volkswagen invested in Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Mercedes-Benz invested in Funeng, and Tesla selected LG Chem as the battery supplier of the domestic Model Y, which will supply nickel-cobalt-manganese-aluminum (NCMA) to Tesla in July.) Quaternary battery cathode material.At the same time, major car companies further \"involved\" and began to produce their own batteries in order to further reduce production costs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0P6N.UK\">Volkswagen Group</a>Invest nearly 1 billion euros to build a battery factory in Germany. In the early stage, it will focus on battery cell assembly, and in the later stage, it will increase work in the field of battery cell research and production; Toyota and Panasonic have formed a new joint venture, Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, Inc., to specialize in the manufacture of prismatic lithium-ion batteries for automobiles. The same is true for domestic car companies. BYD's battery division is independently Fudi Battery, and Honeycomb Energy's predecessor is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Power Battery Division.Up to now, Honeycomb Energy has received orders from Geely, Dongfeng, PSA and other brands. Gao Le, chairman of BMW Group Greater China, said that the new energy products produced by Beam Automobile, a joint venture with Great Wall Motors, will use Honeycomb Energy's power batteries. Fudi Battery has provided blade batteries to FAW Hongqi and other models. \"Almost all the car brands you can think of are negotiating cooperation with us.\"BYD Vice President He Long's \"Versailles\" is threatening the market share of CATL.4. Possible breakthrough, \"betting\" sodium batteries?I'm afraid Zeng Yuqun has realized that there are many chasers and challengers behind him. CATL has tried to use diversified investment strategies to build its own moat in terms of production capacity supply and enhanced industrial chain coordination. This is one of the reasons why the market is optimistic about CATL.On the one hand, CATL is not satisfied with its status as a supplier, but extends its power to the entire industrial chain through investment. In August 2020, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited announced that it planned to invest 19 billion yuan in high-quality listed companies upstream and downstream of domestic and overseas industrial chains. A month later, CATL participated in lithium battery equipment manufacturers with 2.5 billion yuan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">Pilot intelligence</a>Fixed increase.In the upstream, CATL set up special funds to invest in battery raw materials, power battery system solutions, power battery material recycling, battery reuse and other fields. Downstream, CATL has invested in energy storage, charging infrastructure, battery swapping, autonomous driving, and even travel business. In 2020, CATL also invested in Xiangdao Travel, an online ride-hailing platform owned by SAIC, autonomous driving company Inceptio Technology, and Horizon.The battery business has made CATL a lot of money, and it has reached the stage where it can rely on funds to consolidate its moat.The market value of CATL exceeded one trillion yuan this time, which is largely related to its announcement of sodium batteries. On May 21, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's leading power battery company, stated at the shareholders' meeting that it will release a new generation of sodium-ion batteries in July.For a time, except for the Ningde era,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600328\">China Salt Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600348\">Huayang shares</a>Waiting for sodium battery concept stocks have also hit their daily limit. Surrounded by car companies, the market is diversified, and the future layout with seemingly unlimited potential all tempt capital to bet on the Ningde era.\"Thirty years in Hedong, thirty years in Hexi\", the rise of BYD stems from the once underestimated lithium iron phosphate, which got rid of the limitation of cruising range. For example, the blade battery launched by BYD has a maximum endurance of more than 600 kilometers, and its endurance is not weaker than that of CATL. From the data point of view, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has rebounded strongly. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, in 2020, a total of 38.9 GWh of ternary lithium batteries were installed in vehicles, accounting for 61.1%, with a cumulative decrease of 4.1%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 24.4 GWh, accounting for 38.3%, with a cumulative increase of 20.6%. Zeng Yuqun also publicly stated that with the increasing number of charging pile facilities for new energy vehicles, the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate power batteries will be very fast.These battery companies have also begun to accelerate the pace of listing.Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD Auto Brand and Public Relations Division, said that Fudi Battery will apply for an IPO in the next one to two years. Honeycomb Energy, a spin-off of Great Wall Motors, is also advancing its listing plan. It is expected to complete the share reform in the second half of this year and submit application materials to the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the first half of 2022 to seek listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.Although in order to find a new way out, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited turned its attention to \"sodium batteries\". However, some relevant people told Jiazi Guangnian that sodium batteries are actually not a new technology and are difficult to commercially apply on a large scale. The energy density of sodium batteries (generally less than 120Wh/kg) is significantly lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries (160Wh/kg) and ternary batteries. The industry generally believes that the main application fields of sodium batteries are low-end electric vehicles and energy storage. \"Regardless of energy density or other indicators, sodium-ion batteries can hardly match products such as lithium batteries that have been mass-produced.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000931\">Zhongguancun</a>Yu Qingjiao, secretary-general of the New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and chairman of the Battery Committee of 100, said.Stepping on the right trend, the trillion-dollar market value may only be a phased record of CATL, and under numerous attacks, CATL still needs a stronger moat if it wants to remain at a high level.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With new economy companies in the top ten A-shares, will Ningde era be the next Moutai?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith new economy companies in the top ten A-shares, will Ningde era be the next Moutai?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1060712205\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d8917446074b2faa502a5c7b6e804c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n甲子光年 \n2021-06-10 10:30\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Behind the ups and downs of market value is a battle for the right to speak in the industry. On May 31, the market value of battery manufacturer and technology company CATL (SZ.300750) exceeded one trillion yuan.In early trading that day, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited rose more than 4% intraday, becoming the first company with a trillion-dollar market value on the GEM. Its founder, Zeng Yuqun, also took advantage of the trillion-dollar market value and surpassed Li Ka-shing with a net worth of US $39.2 billion, becoming the richest man in Hong Kong, China.What is more historically significant is that Ningde Times has thus become one of the top ten companies in China's A-share market by market value, and is the only new economy company among them. Except for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the top ten A-share companies by market capitalization today are all familiar names:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Two wine companies,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">Industrial Bank of China</a>Waiting for 6 banks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life Insurance</a>Two financial companies that started as insurance companies.Why CATL? This is the question of many people. Prior to this, I'm afraid many people will pin their hopes of sprinting to the top ten market capitalization of A-shares on Tencent,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Wait on you. But like most Chinese new economy companies, they have not chosen to list on the mainland.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/659745bbce65466a3fbc635b83cc72cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The capital market is a reflection of the real economy. Before 2019, among A-share companies, the mainstream was the tertiary industry headed by banks. New economy enterprises account for a relatively small proportion.In June 2018, CATL went public, with an opening price of 30.17 yuan per share on the day of listing. In the next two years, CATL's market value ranking has been hovering at 34th and 35th in the entire market. As of May 31 this year, CATL's stock price reached 434.1 yuan per share, an increase of 1340.04% compared with three years ago.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ecd6ca9e91a7a8e7d5e35b5e75ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2005, there were only 2 information technology companies among the top ten companies in the U.S. stock market by value, and in 2020 it will reach 5; Annual Report 2012<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Become the largest company by market capitalization in the US stock market.Is the Ningde era overvalued? Also a leader in power batteries<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>(SZ.002594), the current market value is 573.5 billion yuan, only half of that of the Ningde era. BYD's listed companies not only include batteries, but also new energy vehicles, mobile phone electronics and photovoltaics. In the automobile industry downstream of the power battery industry, BYD, the top three main car manufacturers in the A-share market value,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">SAIC Group</a>The total market value of Ningde era is 1,088.1 billion yuan, only slightly exceeding the market value of Ningde era.According to the operating data in 2020, CATL's net profit is 5.58 billion, and its total operating income is 50.3 billion. In other words, the trillion market value corresponds to a P/E of 180 times and a price-to-sales ratio of 20 times. With the activity of the global financial market and the promotion of the energy revolution, while a number of gasoline companies are heading for \"sunset red\", young companies in the new energy field are boiling on the bubble.The highlights of the Ningde era didn't last long. Before the market closed on the morning of June 1, CATL fell by more than 5%, and its market value fell back to 997.3 billion.Jiazi Guangnian interviewed many front-line practitioners in the battery and new energy vehicle industries and came to the following views:<ol><li>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's stock price began to skyrocket in 2020, during the same period, there was a global financial release;</li><li>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's number one position in automotive batteries is facing challenges;</li><li>CATL only has to face competition from other battery manufacturers, and major car manufacturers are also making batteries;</li><li>Betting on sodium batteries, it is hard to say whether CATL's competitiveness in batteries can be improved.</li></ol>1. Who directed the \"popularity\" of the Ningde era?The trillion-dollar market value of CATL was not achieved in a day. In 2020, its ranking in the A-share market jumped to 11th place, an increase of more than 20 places from before.At the same time, the stock price of CATL has soared in 2020, and will reach the 400 yuan/share mark at the beginning of 2021, and then surpass<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">PetroChina</a>。 During this period, it not only often appeared on the Snowball Hot Stock List, but was also used as a benchmark company for comparison by major brokerage reports, which is not the same as the stable state in 2018 and 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ed505c641f51b919a89da7892eb589\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited stockFrom a macro perspective, CATL is favored by two major factors, one is the excess liquidity of funds, and the other is the demand for carbon reduction.On the one hand, the global financial system has released a lot of water, and more money has flowed into the market.In 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic led to the shutdown of global economic activities, and central banks represented by the Federal Reserve began to implement unprecedented ultra-loose monetary policies. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2020, more than 50 central banks around the world have cut interest rates or cut interest rates multiple times, and more than 60% of the world's economies have interest rates less than 1%.Simultaneously with capital inflows, more people enter the stock market. In 2020, there were 18.0225 million new investors, which was also a four-year high. In December last year alone, the number of new investors doubled.The immediate result is to push up the valuations of financial assets, including stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601988\">BANK OF CHINA</a>Zhao Xueqing, a researcher at the Institute of International Monetary Studies at Renmin University of China, once said: Long-term unlimited monetary easing may boost financial \"inflation.\" The financial market continues to be in a low or even negative interest rate environment, which will contribute to the price bubble of financial assets.The process of stock price expansion in the Ningde era is synchronized with the entry of capital and investors.On the other hand, the demand for carbon reduction has ushered in development opportunities for new energy vehicles, which has also driven power batteries located in the middle reaches of the new energy vehicle industry chain. Ningde era is sought after by the market, which is also the result of this force.At the beginning of this year, while the sales of new energy vehicles were rising steadily, Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the New Energy Vehicle Venture Capital Sub-fund of the National Science and Technology Achievements Transformation Fund, predicted this year's trend: In 2021 I<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>Car sales are expected to be around 1.8 million units, and the installed capacity of power batteries will increase by more than 30% year-on-year. At that time, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited successfully \"got out of the circle\" with a recruitment notice-the company set up major bonus incentives to encourage employees to stay and work overtime due to the surge in year-end orders.2020 is the time when electric vehicles will move from policy-driven to market-driven. The battery system is the component with the highest cost proportion in new energy vehicles, nearly 40%. It can be said to be the heart of new energy vehicles. The surge in demand for electric vehicles has driven the growth of the power battery industry. Last year, my country's power battery installed capacity totaled 63.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and power battery shipments were 80GWh, a year-on-year increase of 13%. As of April 2021, new Energy vehicle sales have hit record highs for 10 consecutive months.This is the same as the booming stock price of CATL, which is also the same as the trajectory.Among various energy storage methods, power batteries are currently the one with the greatest demand and the most implementation scenarios. The downstream of the power battery industry chain includes new energy vehicles, consumer electronics and energy storage. In other words, from e-cigarettes and electric bicycles to new energy vehicles and industrial power systems, power batteries are used everywhere. According to a report released by Adroit Market Research, an international market research organization, the global lithium-ion battery market is estimated to exceed US $100 billion by 2025. Of course, such estimates also catch up with the new energy vehicle industry.Chen Wenhui, vice chairman of the National Council for Social Security Fund, once said at the \"2021 Caijing Sustainable Development Summit Forum\",\"The market value of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited exceeds that of PetroChina, and the battle between new energy and traditional energy seems to be decided.\"Industrial transformation and policy dividends are huge market space, upward growth trend and good investment targets in the eyes of investors.Despite the volatility, CATL's stock price is still high so far. But how long can these good days last? Actually, there is a question mark. The new energy concept sector and company have experienced ups and downs in the past two years:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The stock price soared 650% last year, but since the beginning of this year, its stock price has dropped from a high of $880 to a low of $582, a drop of more than 30%. Another representative is the photovoltaic sector. Last year, the total market value once approached one trillion yuan, and the photovoltaic index rose by 110.80%. However, in only 6 trading days in February this year, it fell by about 300 billion yuan.2. With a market value of one trillion yuan, is CATL worth it?It should be pointed out that there is still a basis for the surge in CATL's stock price, and the company's performance has also experienced explosive growth during the same period.Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has firmly established its position as the leader in power batteries.As of the first quarter of 2021, CATL's power battery installed capacity ranked first in the country with a market share of 52.45%.At the 100th anniversary celebration meeting of Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shen Nanpeng, global managing partner of Sequoia Capital, asked Zeng Yuqun a question: If there are only 10 car companies left in the future, how many of these 10 companies will come from China? Zeng Yuqun said: I think 70% will come from China.This judgment stems from the understanding of the development potential of China's new energy vehicle industry, and Zeng Yuqun has long seized the opportunity to lay out the new energy battery industry.In 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the \"Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions\", stipulating that if new energy vehicles want to receive subsidies, they must use batteries produced by whitelisted companies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>LG<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Japanese and Korean battery giants have not entered this catalog, which puts domestic power battery companies on the fast lane with policy protection, and also gives the previously unknown Ningde era an opportunity to overtake in corners.It is not enough to get rid of foreign friends and businessmen, and the subsequent support policies have made CATL \"lucky\" to get rid of domestic competitors.The national subsidy standard for new energy vehicles is based on the cruising range. Ternary lithium batteries with larger cruising range can receive more subsidies. BYD,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002074\">Guoxuan High-Tech</a>The main one is the lithium iron phosphate route, which is gradually left out by OEMs because of the relatively small subsidies available.At the same time, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also chose the right path of development. Due to its self-sufficient model, BYD does not provide large-scale external supplies in the battery supply chain, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech also mainly cooperates with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600418\">Jianghuai Motors</a>The scale of cooperation is also relatively limited, so it misses the opportunity for expansion.As a result, CATL has gradually become the leader of domestic battery suppliers.In 2017, China's sales of new energy vehicles reached 770,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 53%, ranking first in global sales. It was also in 2017 that CATL surpassed Japan's Panasonic and became the world's largest power battery manufacturer.Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also knows how to \"hold the thighs\" to expand brand awareness. Cooperation with BMW is a typical case. In 2012, only one year after its establishment, CATL began to produce power batteries for BMW's first pure electric vehicle \"Zino 1E\", becoming the first domestic power battery manufacturer to enter the supply chain system of leading car companies.With this, Ningde era became an instant hit.BMW's brand effect has brought many followers, including traditional car companies such as SAIC, Changan, and Geely.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng, Ideal and other new forces have since cooperated with CATL, and Tesla, which entered China, has also invested in the embrace of CATL.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Founder Li Xiang once said in an interview: The way car companies want to cooperate with CATL is often for the chairman to queue up to them to ask for batteries.There are also reports that in order to successfully obtain goods from CATL,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>He XPeng, the founder, also had to rush to Ningde in person.According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from 2018 to 2020, CATL's domestic market share basically remained at about half.3. A flash in the pan? Income and gross profit are difficult to guaranteeHowever, from the situation that the market value fell in one day, it can already be seen that the trillion-dollar market value of the Ningde era may still lack support.From the perspective of profits, CATL is already in a decline. CATL's financial report data shows that the company's power battery system operating income in 2017 was 16.657 billion yuan, operating costs were 10.785 billion yuan, and gross profit margin was 35.25%. In the following three years, the gross profit margin of CATL's power battery system continued to decline. In 2018, the gross profit margin of CATL's power battery system was 34.10%. In 2019, the gross profit margin of its power battery system was 28.45%. By 2020, the gross profit margin of its power battery system has become 26.56%.Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has also repeatedly mentioned the risk of declining gross profit margins in \"possible risks\". The company explained in its financial report that the change in the gross profit margin of each product segment of the company is the result of the comprehensive impact of changes in sales unit price and unit cost. If factors such as the intensification of market competition or the adjustment of national policies in the future lead to adverse changes in the selling price of the company's products and the purchase price of raw materials, there is a risk that the company's gross profit margin will decline.At present, the price fluctuations of cobalt and upstream raw materials exceed expectations, putting huge pressure on battery production costs. For example<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>According to the aspect, the penetration of large-size new energy vehicles is expected to drive the growth of demand for lithium salts, and the price of lithium hydroxide is expected to continue to rise. As of June 3, according to SMM's spot quotation, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 91,500 yuan/ton, a surge of 84.8% from the beginning of the year.The bigger pain point is that CATL can no longer dominate the market share of new energy vehicles.As of the end of April 2021, CATL's monthly installed vehicle volume was 3.82 GWh, and its domestic market share was 45.5%. Compared with the market share of 52.6% in the first quarter of this year and the company's market share of 50% in 2020, CATL has obviously lacked momentum.Some people from car companies have said that CATL is too strong, and car manufacturers will deliberately support other battery factories to balance. Big car brands are unlikely to allow one supply chain to dominate.In order to \"compete\" with the Ningde era, Volkswagen invested in Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Mercedes-Benz invested in Funeng, and Tesla selected LG Chem as the battery supplier of the domestic Model Y, which will supply nickel-cobalt-manganese-aluminum (NCMA) to Tesla in July.) Quaternary battery cathode material.At the same time, major car companies further \"involved\" and began to produce their own batteries in order to further reduce production costs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0P6N.UK\">Volkswagen Group</a>Invest nearly 1 billion euros to build a battery factory in Germany. In the early stage, it will focus on battery cell assembly, and in the later stage, it will increase work in the field of battery cell research and production; Toyota and Panasonic have formed a new joint venture, Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, Inc., to specialize in the manufacture of prismatic lithium-ion batteries for automobiles. The same is true for domestic car companies. BYD's battery division is independently Fudi Battery, and Honeycomb Energy's predecessor is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Power Battery Division.Up to now, Honeycomb Energy has received orders from Geely, Dongfeng, PSA and other brands. Gao Le, chairman of BMW Group Greater China, said that the new energy products produced by Beam Automobile, a joint venture with Great Wall Motors, will use Honeycomb Energy's power batteries. Fudi Battery has provided blade batteries to FAW Hongqi and other models. \"Almost all the car brands you can think of are negotiating cooperation with us.\"BYD Vice President He Long's \"Versailles\" is threatening the market share of CATL.4. Possible breakthrough, \"betting\" sodium batteries?I'm afraid Zeng Yuqun has realized that there are many chasers and challengers behind him. CATL has tried to use diversified investment strategies to build its own moat in terms of production capacity supply and enhanced industrial chain coordination. This is one of the reasons why the market is optimistic about CATL.On the one hand, CATL is not satisfied with its status as a supplier, but extends its power to the entire industrial chain through investment. In August 2020, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited announced that it planned to invest 19 billion yuan in high-quality listed companies upstream and downstream of domestic and overseas industrial chains. A month later, CATL participated in lithium battery equipment manufacturers with 2.5 billion yuan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">Pilot intelligence</a>Fixed increase.In the upstream, CATL set up special funds to invest in battery raw materials, power battery system solutions, power battery material recycling, battery reuse and other fields. Downstream, CATL has invested in energy storage, charging infrastructure, battery swapping, autonomous driving, and even travel business. In 2020, CATL also invested in Xiangdao Travel, an online ride-hailing platform owned by SAIC, autonomous driving company Inceptio Technology, and Horizon.The battery business has made CATL a lot of money, and it has reached the stage where it can rely on funds to consolidate its moat.The market value of CATL exceeded one trillion yuan this time, which is largely related to its announcement of sodium batteries. On May 21, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's leading power battery company, stated at the shareholders' meeting that it will release a new generation of sodium-ion batteries in July.For a time, except for the Ningde era,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600328\">China Salt Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600348\">Huayang shares</a>Waiting for sodium battery concept stocks have also hit their daily limit. Surrounded by car companies, the market is diversified, and the future layout with seemingly unlimited potential all tempt capital to bet on the Ningde era.\"Thirty years in Hedong, thirty years in Hexi\", the rise of BYD stems from the once underestimated lithium iron phosphate, which got rid of the limitation of cruising range. For example, the blade battery launched by BYD has a maximum endurance of more than 600 kilometers, and its endurance is not weaker than that of CATL. From the data point of view, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has rebounded strongly. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, in 2020, a total of 38.9 GWh of ternary lithium batteries were installed in vehicles, accounting for 61.1%, with a cumulative decrease of 4.1%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 24.4 GWh, accounting for 38.3%, with a cumulative increase of 20.6%. Zeng Yuqun also publicly stated that with the increasing number of charging pile facilities for new energy vehicles, the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate power batteries will be very fast.These battery companies have also begun to accelerate the pace of listing.Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD Auto Brand and Public Relations Division, said that Fudi Battery will apply for an IPO in the next one to two years. Honeycomb Energy, a spin-off of Great Wall Motors, is also advancing its listing plan. It is expected to complete the share reform in the second half of this year and submit application materials to the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the first half of 2022 to seek listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.Although in order to find a new way out, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited turned its attention to \"sodium batteries\". However, some relevant people told Jiazi Guangnian that sodium batteries are actually not a new technology and are difficult to commercially apply on a large scale. The energy density of sodium batteries (generally less than 120Wh/kg) is significantly lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries (160Wh/kg) and ternary batteries. The industry generally believes that the main application fields of sodium batteries are low-end electric vehicles and energy storage. \"Regardless of energy density or other indicators, sodium-ion batteries can hardly match products such as lithium batteries that have been mass-produced.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000931\">Zhongguancun</a>Yu Qingjiao, secretary-general of the New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and chairman of the Battery Committee of 100, said.Stepping on the right trend, the trillion-dollar market value may only be a phased record of CATL, and under numerous attacks, CATL still needs a stronger moat if it wants to remain at a high level.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24f6b08a7db74aca94ead13b544bba0f","relate_stocks":{"159822":"新经济","300750":"宁德时代","600519":"贵州茅台"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152830507","content_text":"宁德时代市值起伏的背后，是一场产业话语权之战。\n\n5月31日这天，电池制造商与技术公司宁德时代（SZ.300750）市值突破了一万亿元。\n当日早盘，宁德时代盘中涨超4%，成为了创业板上首家万亿市值的公司。其创始人曾毓群也乘着万亿市值的东风，以392亿美元的身家超过李嘉诚，登上了中国香港首富的宝座。\n更具历史意义的是，宁德时代由此跻身中国A股市场市值前十大企业，是其中唯一一家新经济公司。除宁德时代外，A股今天市值前十的公司，都是我们耳熟能详的名字：贵州茅台、五粮液两家酒企，工商银行等6家银行，中国平安和中国人寿两家保险起家的金融公司。\n为什么是宁德时代？这是很多人的疑问。在此之前，冲刺A股前十大市值的希望，恐怕很多人会寄托在腾讯、阿里巴巴等身上。不过与大多数中国新经济公司一样，它们也没有选择在大陆上市。\n\n资本市场是实体经济的映照。2019年以前A股企业中，占主流的是以银行为首的第三产业。新经济企业占比较小。\n2018年6月，宁德时代上市，上市当日开盘价30.17元/股。在其后的两年内，宁德时代的市值排名一直在全市场的34、35位徘徊。到今年的5月31日，宁德时代股价达到434.1元/股，相比三年前上涨1340.04%。\n\n2005年美股市值前十的企业中信息技术企业只有2家，2020年已达5家；2012年苹果成为美股第一大市值公司。\n宁德时代是否被高估了？同样是动力电池龙头的比亚迪（SZ.002594)，当下市值为5735亿元，仅为宁德时代的一半。而比亚迪上市公司中不仅有电池，还包括了新能源车、手机电子和光伏等业务。在动力电池产业下游的汽车产业中，A股市值前三的主车厂比亚迪、长城汽车和上汽集团的市值之和为10881亿元，仅略超宁德时代市值。\n按照2020年的经营数据，宁德时代的净利润为55.8亿、营业总收入为503亿。也就是说，万亿市值对应的是180倍的市盈率，20倍的市销率。全球金融市场的活跃叠加能源革命的推动，一批汽油公司走向“夕阳红”的同时，新能源领域的年轻公司们正沸腾于泡沫之上。\n宁德时代的高光没能持续多久。6月1日上午休市前，宁德时代就跌超5%，市值回落到了9973亿。\n「甲子光年」采访了电池和新能源汽车行业的多位一线从业人员，得出以下几个观点：\n\n宁德时代股价在2020年开始暴涨，同期是全球性的金融放水；\n宁德时代汽车电池第一的地位面临挑战；\n宁德时代仅要面对其他电池厂商的竞争，各大车厂也在做电池；\n押注钠电池，宁德时代在电池上的竞争力能否提升还不好说。\n\n1.谁导演了宁德时代的走“红”？\n宁德时代的万亿市值，不是一天达成的。2020年，它在A股市场中的排名就跃升到第11位，比之前上升了20多位。\n与此同步的，是2020年宁德时代股价的一路狂飙，并在2021年年初站上400元/股的关口，并在其后超越中石油。期间它不仅常常登上雪球热股榜，还被各大券商报告拿来作为标杆企业进行对比，这与2018、2019年的平稳状态不可同日而语。\n\n宁德时代股价走势\n宏观上看，宁德时代受两大因素利好，一是资金的流动性过剩，二是对减碳的需求。\n一方面，全球金融体系大放水，流进市场的钱变多了。2020年，新冠疫情的爆发导致了全球经济活动停摆，以美联储为代表的各国央行开始实施前所未有的超宽松货币政策。据不完全统计，到2020年底全球范围内已有超过50家央行降息或多次降息，全球超60%的经济体利率不到1%。\n与资本流入同步的是更多的人进入股市。2020年全年新增投资者1802.25万，也为4年新高，仅去年12月，新增投资者就实现了翻倍。\n直接的结果是推高了包括股票在内的金融资产的估值。中国银行研究院研究员、中国人民大学国际货币研究所研究员赵雪情曾表示：长期无限量货币宽松可能助推金融“通胀”。金融市场持续处于低利率乃至负利率环境，会助长金融资产价格泡沫。\n宁德时代的股价膨胀的过程，与资本、投资人的跑步入场同步。\n另一方面，减碳的需求使得新能源汽车迎来了发展机会，这也带动了位于新能源汽车产业链中游的动力电池。宁德时代受到市场追捧，也是这个力量推动的结果。\n今年年初，在新能源车销量节节攀升的同时，国家科技成果转化基金新能源汽车创业投资子基金合伙人兼总裁方建华对今年的趋势做过预测：2021年我国新能源汽车销量预计为180万辆左右，动力电池装机量将同比增长30％以上。彼时，宁德时代就凭借一则招工通知成功“出圈”——公司因年终订单暴涨，特设重大奖金激励，鼓励员工留守加班。\n2020年是电动汽车从政策驱动向市场驱动的时间点，电池系统是新能源车中成本占比最高的部件，接近40%，可以说是新能源汽车的心脏。电动汽车的需求大增带动了动力电池产业增长，去年，我国动力电池装车量累计63.6GWh，同比上升2.3%，动力电池出货量为80GWh，同比增长13%，截至到2021年4月份，新能源汽车销量已经连续10个月创历史新高了。\n这与宁德时代的股价飘红，也是轨迹趋同。\n在各种储能方式中，动力电池是目前需求最大、最有落地场景的一环。动力电池的产业链下游包括了新能源车、消费电子和储能这三大块。也就是说，小到电子烟和电动自行车，大到新能源汽车和工业电力系统，处处都有动力电池的用武之地。根据国际市场研究机构Adroit Market Research发布的报告，预计到2025年，全球锂离子电池市场规模估计将超过1000亿美元。这样的估算量当然也搭上了新能源车的行业东风。\n全国社保基金理事会副理事长陈文辉曾在“2021《财经》可持续发展高峰论坛”上表示，“宁德时代市值超过中石油，新能源与传统能源之争似乎胜负已定。”\n产业变革、政策红利，在投资者眼里都是巨大的市场空间、向上的增长趋势以及好的投资标的。\n尽管有所震荡，但宁德时代的股价目前为止还在高位。但这种好日子能持续多久？实际上还要打个问号。新能源概念的板块和公司这两年都经历了大起大落：特斯拉去年股价飙升650%，但今年以来，其股价从高位时的880美元跌到最低时的582美元，跌幅超过三成。另一个代表是光伏板块，去年总市值一度逼近万亿，光伏指数上涨了110.80%，但在今年2月份的仅6个交易日里，就跌了3000亿左右。\n2.万亿市值，宁德时代值得吗？\n需要指出的是，宁德时代股价大涨还是有基础的，公司的业绩同期也有爆发式增长。宁德时代已经牢牢坐稳了动力电池龙头的位置。截至2021年第一季度，宁德时代的动力电池装机量以52.45%的市场份额位列全国第一。\n在上海交大的100年庆祝大会上，红杉资本全球执行合伙人沈南鹏问了曾毓群一个问题：如果未来车企只剩下10家，这10家里面有多少来自中国？曾毓群说：我觉得70%会来自中国。这个判断源于对中国新能源汽车产业发展潜力的认知，曾毓群也早就抓住了布局新能源电池产业的先机。\n2015年，工信部发布了《汽车动力蓄电池行业规范条件》，规定新能源车要想获得补贴，必须使用进入白名单的企业所生产的电池，三星、LG、松下等日韩电池巨头并没有进入这一目录，这让国产动力电池企业走在了有政策保护的快车道，也让此前名不见经传的宁德时代迎来弯道超车的时机。\n甩掉国外友商还不够，随后的扶持政策又让宁德时代“幸运”地甩掉国内的竞争者。国家对新能源汽车的补贴的标准是根据续航里程来定的，续航里程更大的三元锂电池能够拿到更多的补贴。比亚迪、国轩高科等主打的是磷酸铁锂路线，因为能拿到的补贴相对较少，逐渐被整车厂冷落。\n同时，宁德时代也选对了发展的路。由于其自给自足的模式，比亚迪在电池供应链本就不大规模外供，国轩高科也主要与江淮汽车合作合作规模也比较局限，因此错过了扩张的风口。\n由此，宁德时代逐渐成为国内电池供应商的扛把子。2017年，中国新能源汽车的销量达到77万辆，同比增长53%，全球销量第一。也正是2017年，宁德时代超过日本松下，一跃成为全球最大的动力电池生产商。\n这其中，宁德时代也很懂得“抱大腿”扩大品牌知名度。与宝马的合作，就是个典型案例。2012年，仅在成立1年后，宁德时代就开始为宝马首款纯电动车“之诺1E”生产动力电池，成为国内首先打入头部车企供应链体系的动力电池厂商。借此，宁德时代一炮而红。\n宝马的品牌效应，带来了不少追随者，上汽、长安、吉利等传统车企，蔚来、小鹏、理想等新势力此后纷与宁德时代合作，进入中国的特斯拉也投入了宁德时代的怀抱。理想汽车创始人李想曾在一次采访中说：车企想与宁德时代合作的方式，往往是董事长排队到他们那里要电池。还有报道称，为了从宁德时代顺利拿货，小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏也不得不亲自赶往宁德。\n根据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟的数据，从2018年到2020年，宁德时代在国内市场的占有率基本上维持在了一半左右。\n3.昙花一现？收入、毛利都难保\n但从市值一日跌落的情形，已经能看出，宁德时代的万亿市值恐怕还缺乏支撑。\n从利润来看，宁德时代已经处于式微的态势。宁德时代财报数据显示，公司动力电池系统在2017年的营业收入为166.57亿，营业成本为107.85亿元，毛利率为35.25%。随后三年，宁德时代的动力电池系统毛利率始终保持下滑状态。2018年，宁德时代动力电池系统毛利率为34.10%，2019年，其动力电池系统毛利率为28.45%，到了2020年，动力电池系统毛利率已经变成26.56%。\n宁德时代也多次在“可能面对的风险”中提及毛利率下降的风险。公司在财报中解释，公司各细分产品毛利率的变动是销售单价和单位成本变动综合影响的结果。若未来市场竞争加剧或国家政策调整等因素使得公司产品售价及原材料采购价格发生不利变化，公司毛利率存在下降的风险。\n目前，钴、上游原材料价格波动超预期，给电池生产成本造成了巨大的压力。比如天风证券方面称，大尺寸新能源车渗透有望带动锂盐需求增长，预计氢氧化锂价格持续上行。截止6月3日，据SMM现货报价显示，电池级氢氧化锂报价91500元/吨，已较年初暴涨84.8%。\n更大的痛点，是宁德时代在新能源汽车中的市场份额已无法再一家独大。\n截至2021年4月末，宁德时代单月装车量为3.82 GWh，国内市场占有率为45.5%。对比今年一季度52.6%的市场占有率，以及2020年全年公司市场占有率达50%的水平，宁德时代明显已经冲劲不足。\n有车企人士曾表示，宁德时代太强势了，会让汽车厂商故意去扶持别的电池厂来平衡，汽车大品牌们不太会允许供应链一家独大的。\n为了“抗衡”宁德时代，大众投资了国轩高科，奔驰入股孚能，特斯拉选定LG化学为国产Model Y的电池供应商，将于7月向特斯拉供应镍钴锰铝(NCMA)四元电池正极材料。\n与此同时，各大车企进一步“内卷”，为了进一步降低生产成本，开始自己生产电池。大众集团投资近10亿欧元在德国本土建设一家电池工厂，前期将专注于电芯组装工作，后期将会增加电芯研究生产领域的工作；丰田和松下新成立合资公司Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, Inc.，专门生产汽车棱柱式锂离子电池。国内车企也如此，比亚迪的电池事业部独立为弗迪电池，蜂巢能源的前身则是长城汽车动力电池事业部。\n截至目前，蜂巢能源已经拿到吉利、东风、PSA等品牌订单。宝马集团大中华区董事长高乐表示，与长城汽车合资公司光束汽车生产的新能源产品将使用蜂巢能源的动力电池。弗迪电池已经给一汽红旗等车型配套了刀片电池，“你们能想到的汽车品牌，几乎都在和我们洽谈合作”。比亚迪副总裁何龙的“凡尔赛”，正威胁着宁德时代的市场份额。\n4.可能的突围，“赌注”钠电池？\n曾毓群恐怕也已经意识到了，后面有很多追赶者、挑战者的局面。宁德时代已经试图用多元化的投资策略，从产能供给、增强产业链协同等方面构建了自己的护城河，这也是市场看好宁德时代的原因之一。\n一方面宁德时代不满足于只是供应商的身份，而是通过投资将势力延伸至整条产业链。2020年8月，宁德时代发布公告称，计划投资190亿元，对境内外产业链上下游优质上市企业进行投资。一个月后，宁德时代以25亿元参与锂电设备厂商先导智能的定增。\n在上游，宁德时代成立专项资金投资布局电池原材料、动力电池系统解决方案、动力电池材料回收、电池再利用等领域。在下游，宁德时代投资了储能、充电基础设施、换电、自动驾驶，甚至出行业务等领域。2020年，宁德时代还投资了上汽集团旗下的网约车平台享道出行、自动驾驶公司嬴彻科技以及地平线。\n电池业务已经让宁德时代赚得盆满钵满，它已经到了可以靠资金来巩固自己的护城河的阶段。\n此次宁德时代市值突破万亿，很大程度上与其宣布钠电池消息有关。5月21日，全球动力电池龙头企业宁德时代在股东大会上表示，将于7月发布新一代钠离子电池。\n一时间，除了宁德时代，中盐化工、华阳股份等钠电池概念股也纷纷涨停。车企围绕，盘面多元，还有着看似潜力无限的未来布局，都诱惑着资本下注宁德时代。\n“三十年河东，三十年河西”，比亚迪们的崛起，源于曾经被看轻的磷酸铁锂，摆脱了曾经续航里程的限制。例如比亚迪推出的刀片电池最高续航能力超过600公里，续航能力并不弱于宁德时代。从数据看，磷酸铁锂电池的装机量已出现强劲反弹，根据中国汽车工业协会和前瞻产业研究院数据，2020年，三元锂电池共计装车38.9GWh，占比61.1%，累计下降4.1%；磷酸铁锂电池装机24.4GWh，占比38.3%，累计增长20.6%。曾毓群也公开表示，随着新能源车充电桩设施越来越多，磷酸铁锂动力电池的增长速度会非常快。\n这些电池企业也开始加快了上市的步伐。比亚迪汽车品牌及公关事业部总经理李云飞表示，未来一至两年，弗迪电池将申请IPO。长城汽车分拆出来的蜂巢能源也在推进上市计划，预计将于今年下半年完成股改，2022年上半年向上海证交所提交申报材料，寻求科创板上市。\n虽然为了寻找新的出路，宁德时代将目光转向了“钠电池”。但有相关人士对「甲子光年」表示，钠电池实际并非新技术，难以大规模的商业应用。钠电池能量密度（一般不到 120Wh/kg）明显低于磷酸铁锂电池（160Wh/kg）与三元电池，业界普遍认为钠电池的主要应用领域在低端电动汽车和储能领域。“无论能量密度还是其它指标，钠离子电池几乎都不能跟锂电池这样已经大规模量产的产品匹敌。”中关村新型电池技术创新联盟秘书长、电池百人会理事长于清教表示。\n踩准风口，万亿市值或许只是宁德时代的阶段性战绩，而在众多夹击之下，想要持续停留在高位，宁德时代仍需更牢固的护城河。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159822":0.9,"300750":0.9,"600519":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2135,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}