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Constancekcl
2021-06-13

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The purchasing power of the US dollar may fall permanently, at the fastest rate since 1982

分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。

The purchasing power of the US dollar may fall permanently, at the fastest rate since 1982

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":182566891,"tweetId":"182566891","gmtCreate":1623589860513,"gmtModify":1704206690047,"author":{"id":3567685395510817,"idStr":"3567685395510817","authorId":3567685395510817,"authorIdStr":"3567685395510817","name":"Constancekcl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623e651db7a1de3baaf331fe7c9987c8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":9,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>??</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>??</p></body></html>","text":"??","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182566891","repostId":1186135122,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186135122","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623465545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186135122?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 10:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The purchasing power of the US dollar may fall permanently, at the fastest rate since 1982","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186135122","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。","content":"<p>Author: Lin Jingyang</p><p>The surge in U.S. inflation comes as analysts find the dollar's purchasing power is falling at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years and may never rebound.</p><p>Wolf Richter, founder of the U.S. financial website Wolf Street, analyzed data from the U.S. Department of Labor and said that as the U.S. CPI exploded by 5% year-on-year in May, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar (for all consumer goods denominated in U.S. dollars, including labor force) fell in May. 0.8%,<b>In the past three months, it has dropped sharply by 2.4%, the largest three-month decline since 1982.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f96d36e43e2873bf2430c88a4757a2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At an annualized rate, eliminating the impact of year-on-year base effects, purchasing power decreased by 9.5% in three months.</p><p><b>The loss of purchasing power of the dollar is mainly reflected in the automobile and housing markets.</b></p><p>In May, the price of durable goods soared by 10.3% year-on-year, especially the price of used cars increased by 30%, and the price of new cars also increased by 3.3% year-on-year, the largest increase since 2012. According to JD Power data, the \"average transaction price\" (ATP) of new car retail sales jumped to US $38,255 in May, and ATP has increased by 28% in the past seven years, and the growth rate has increased significantly since June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0bbac1844aabeda7246d41b54e9a61\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Housing costs (rent + all housing costs), which account for about one-third of the overall CPI, have also increased significantly. Among them, the rent part has been rising at a constant rate of 0.2% this year, and has increased by 2.2% in the past 12 months; The owner's \"equivalent rent\" also continues to rise.</p><p>In May, the Case-Shiller home price index rose 13.2% year-over-year, the strongest growth since December 2005 (purple line). This is a more realistic measure of house price inflation, measuring how the price of the same home changes over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b936def692183aceb0058e10673448dc\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wolf Richter believes that \"the current decline in purchasing power is permanent, and there will be a permanent plunge in purchasing power in the future\",<b>Even if the CPI drops from 5% year-on-year to 4% in May next year, this part of the lost purchasing power will no longer be recovered.</b></p><p>The only possible \"temporary\" event is a decline in price levels for a short period of time. This has only happened for a few quarters in my lifetime, such as the last few months of 2008 (shown in the chart above). So I have no hope (for a long-term purchasing power rebound).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The purchasing power of the US dollar may fall permanently, at the fastest rate since 1982</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe purchasing power of the US dollar may fall permanently, at the fastest rate since 1982\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-12 10:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Lin Jingyang</p><p>The surge in U.S. inflation comes as analysts find the dollar's purchasing power is falling at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years and may never rebound.</p><p>Wolf Richter, founder of the U.S. financial website Wolf Street, analyzed data from the U.S. Department of Labor and said that as the U.S. CPI exploded by 5% year-on-year in May, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar (for all consumer goods denominated in U.S. dollars, including labor force) fell in May. 0.8%,<b>In the past three months, it has dropped sharply by 2.4%, the largest three-month decline since 1982.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f96d36e43e2873bf2430c88a4757a2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At an annualized rate, eliminating the impact of year-on-year base effects, purchasing power decreased by 9.5% in three months.</p><p><b>The loss of purchasing power of the dollar is mainly reflected in the automobile and housing markets.</b></p><p>In May, the price of durable goods soared by 10.3% year-on-year, especially the price of used cars increased by 30%, and the price of new cars also increased by 3.3% year-on-year, the largest increase since 2012. According to JD Power data, the \"average transaction price\" (ATP) of new car retail sales jumped to US $38,255 in May, and ATP has increased by 28% in the past seven years, and the growth rate has increased significantly since June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0bbac1844aabeda7246d41b54e9a61\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Housing costs (rent + all housing costs), which account for about one-third of the overall CPI, have also increased significantly. Among them, the rent part has been rising at a constant rate of 0.2% this year, and has increased by 2.2% in the past 12 months; The owner's \"equivalent rent\" also continues to rise.</p><p>In May, the Case-Shiller home price index rose 13.2% year-over-year, the strongest growth since December 2005 (purple line). This is a more realistic measure of house price inflation, measuring how the price of the same home changes over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b936def692183aceb0058e10673448dc\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wolf Richter believes that \"the current decline in purchasing power is permanent, and there will be a permanent plunge in purchasing power in the future\",<b>Even if the CPI drops from 5% year-on-year to 4% in May next year, this part of the lost purchasing power will no longer be recovered.</b></p><p>The only possible \"temporary\" event is a decline in price levels for a short period of time. This has only happened for a few quarters in my lifetime, such as the last few months of 2008 (shown in the chart above). So I have no hope (for a long-term purchasing power rebound).</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48dfa66be8caa6517cb956851a00eed","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186135122","content_text":"作者：林菁扬\n美国通胀飙升之际，分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。\n美国财经网站Wolf Street创始人Wolf Richter分析美国劳工部数据称，随着美国5月CPI同比爆发式增长5%，美元购买力（对包括劳动力在内，一切以美元计价的消费品）5 月份下降了0.8%，过去三个月则大幅下降2.4%，创下自1982年以来最大三个月跌幅。\n\n按年率计算，消除同比基数效应影响，三个月购买力下降了9.5%。\n美元购买力丧失主要体现在汽车和房屋市场。\n5月，耐用品价格同比暴涨10.3%，尤其二手车增幅达到30%，新车价格也同比上涨3.3%，为2012年来最大涨幅。据JD Power数据，5月份新车零售“平均交易价格”（ATP）跃升至38255美元，而ATP在过去七年已增长28%，去年6月来更是增速大幅提升。\n\n约占整体CPI三分之一的住房成本（租金+房屋所有成本）也显著提升。其中，租金部分今年以来一直在以恒定0.2%的幅度持续上涨，过去12个月上涨了2.2%；业主“等价租金”也持续上升趋势。\n5月，Case-Shiller房价指数同比上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最强劲增长（紫色线）。这是一种更为现实的房价通胀衡量方法，衡量同一套房屋价格随时间的变化。\n\nWolf Richter认为，“当前购买力的下跌是永久性的，而未来购买力还将出现永久性的暴跌”，即便明年5月CPI由同比5%降至4%，这部分丧失的购买力也不再具有恢复的可能。\n\n 唯一可能“暂时”事件是，物价水平一小段时间内的下跌。这在我一生中只发生过几个季度，例如2008年的最后几个月（如上图所示）。所以我（对长期购买力反弹）不抱希望。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UUP":0.9,"USDindexmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2246,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}