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2021-05-13

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The highest U.S. inflation rate since the financial crisis, what does it mean?

市场认为，美联储明年加息概率达到100%。

The highest U.S. inflation rate since the financial crisis, what does it mean?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":191103921,"tweetId":"191103921","gmtCreate":1620861545663,"gmtModify":1704349358906,"author":{"id":3576272754444417,"idStr":"3576272754444417","authorId":3576272754444417,"authorIdStr":"3576272754444417","name":"股市图书馆","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c35ecb61e2fd3160126ad66553a6c7b0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>???</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>???</p></body></html>","text":"???","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191103921","repostId":1178001165,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178001165","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620834122,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178001165?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-12 23:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The highest U.S. inflation rate since the financial crisis, what does it mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178001165","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场认为，美联储明年加息概率达到100%。","content":"<p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday, in April, the U.S. CPI surged by 4.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.6%, and the growth rate hit a new high since September 2008; The month-on-month increase was 0.8%, the highest since June 2008.</p><p>Excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI of the United States increased by 3% year-on-year in April, higher than market expectations of 2.3%; The month-on-month increase was 0.92%, the largest increase since 1981.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0549a0460fe15bf4c9848faa513e1d77\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For financial markets, the spreading fear of high inflation has frightened investors.</p><p>Recently, the 5y/5y inflation swap rate climbed to 2.5%, the highest since January 2018, indicating that inflation is no longer as simple as a \"temporary increase\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15059718649befc21aa82606d1b7e99e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to a New York Fed survey of consumers, the average American's median expectation for 1-year and 3-year inflation jumped to 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively, the highest since September 2013.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/993a93784ae9213ce64769c225093fac\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Specifically, consumers expect gasoline prices to jump by 9.18%, food prices by 5.79%, medical expenses by 9.13%, university education prices by 5.93%, and rent prices by 9.49% in the next year!</p><p>The just-released U.S. CPI data also seems to support market concerns. CME group's FedWatch Federal Funds rate futures indicator shows that in December 2022, the probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike of 25 basis points has risen from 88% before the data was released to 100%, indicating that the financial market believes that the Federal Reserve is 100% likely to rate hike before the end of next year.</p><p>However, the Fed does not seem to be worried about inflation. Fed President Jerome Powell firmly believes that any inflation is only temporary. He said that the U.S. economic recovery is making tangible progress, but the recovery momentum is uneven, and the recovery speed of low-income groups and ethnic minorities is relatively slower.</p><p>In fact, after the Fed introduced the \"average inflation target\", the threshold for tightening monetary policy has been raised. Judging from the top-down factors that determine the center of inflation, such as output gap and wage income, inflation is not enough to trigger the Federal Reserve to reduce QE.</p><p>After the release of the CPI data, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida made a speech and also downplayed the importance of rising inflation, saying that it was largely caused by temporary forces. In a speech to the National Association of Business Economics on Wednesday, he said: \"Recent year-on-year readings of inflation have increased and are likely to rise further before falling back later this year. I expect inflation to rise in 2022 and return to our long-term goal of 2% or slightly higher in 2023.\"</p><p>Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said that the market may have an instinctive reaction, but the Fed will take the CPI data calmly.</p><p>Considering the base effect brought about by last year's outbreak and economic blockade, economists have long expected a sharp year-on-year increase in April inflation data.</p><p>After U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen made an \"own goal\" last week that hinted at the Fed's rate hike but urgently clarified it, some senior Fed officials continued to signal that the possibility of recent rate hike and reduction of QE was very low.</p><p>Brainard, a governor of the Federal Reserve who has permanent voting rights at the FOMC meeting of the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee during his term of office, said at an online event on Tuesday local time that the Fed must show continued patience because the economic prosperity in the post-COVID-19 pandemic era is distorted. In fact, the economy is far from reaching the Fed's target level.</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who has FOMC voting rights this year, also said that the United States is still on the path of recovery, but there is still a long way to go to complete the recovery. The labor market has a gap of 8 million jobs compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The highest U.S. inflation rate since the financial crisis, what does it mean?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe highest U.S. inflation rate since the financial crisis, what does it mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-12 23:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday, in April, the U.S. CPI surged by 4.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.6%, and the growth rate hit a new high since September 2008; The month-on-month increase was 0.8%, the highest since June 2008.</p><p>Excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI of the United States increased by 3% year-on-year in April, higher than market expectations of 2.3%; The month-on-month increase was 0.92%, the largest increase since 1981.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0549a0460fe15bf4c9848faa513e1d77\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For financial markets, the spreading fear of high inflation has frightened investors.</p><p>Recently, the 5y/5y inflation swap rate climbed to 2.5%, the highest since January 2018, indicating that inflation is no longer as simple as a \"temporary increase\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15059718649befc21aa82606d1b7e99e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to a New York Fed survey of consumers, the average American's median expectation for 1-year and 3-year inflation jumped to 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively, the highest since September 2013.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/993a93784ae9213ce64769c225093fac\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Specifically, consumers expect gasoline prices to jump by 9.18%, food prices by 5.79%, medical expenses by 9.13%, university education prices by 5.93%, and rent prices by 9.49% in the next year!</p><p>The just-released U.S. CPI data also seems to support market concerns. CME group's FedWatch Federal Funds rate futures indicator shows that in December 2022, the probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike of 25 basis points has risen from 88% before the data was released to 100%, indicating that the financial market believes that the Federal Reserve is 100% likely to rate hike before the end of next year.</p><p>However, the Fed does not seem to be worried about inflation. Fed President Jerome Powell firmly believes that any inflation is only temporary. He said that the U.S. economic recovery is making tangible progress, but the recovery momentum is uneven, and the recovery speed of low-income groups and ethnic minorities is relatively slower.</p><p>In fact, after the Fed introduced the \"average inflation target\", the threshold for tightening monetary policy has been raised. Judging from the top-down factors that determine the center of inflation, such as output gap and wage income, inflation is not enough to trigger the Federal Reserve to reduce QE.</p><p>After the release of the CPI data, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida made a speech and also downplayed the importance of rising inflation, saying that it was largely caused by temporary forces. In a speech to the National Association of Business Economics on Wednesday, he said: \"Recent year-on-year readings of inflation have increased and are likely to rise further before falling back later this year. I expect inflation to rise in 2022 and return to our long-term goal of 2% or slightly higher in 2023.\"</p><p>Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said that the market may have an instinctive reaction, but the Fed will take the CPI data calmly.</p><p>Considering the base effect brought about by last year's outbreak and economic blockade, economists have long expected a sharp year-on-year increase in April inflation data.</p><p>After U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen made an \"own goal\" last week that hinted at the Fed's rate hike but urgently clarified it, some senior Fed officials continued to signal that the possibility of recent rate hike and reduction of QE was very low.</p><p>Brainard, a governor of the Federal Reserve who has permanent voting rights at the FOMC meeting of the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee during his term of office, said at an online event on Tuesday local time that the Fed must show continued patience because the economic prosperity in the post-COVID-19 pandemic era is distorted. In fact, the economy is far from reaching the Fed's target level.</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who has FOMC voting rights this year, also said that the United States is still on the path of recovery, but there is still a long way to go to complete the recovery. The labor market has a gap of 8 million jobs compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a431f2440e202bc06b4275d2fed450d1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178001165","content_text":"根据美国劳工部周三发布的数据，4月，美国CPI同比大增4.2%，超出3.6%的市场预期水平，增速创2008年9月以来新高；环比增长0.8%，亦创2008年6月以来最高。而剔除波动性较大的食品和能源，美国4月核心CPI同比大增3%，高于市场预期的2.3%；环比增长0.92％，创1981年以来的最大增幅。对金融市场而言，蔓延的高通胀担忧已让投资者宛如惊弓之鸟。近日，5y/5y通胀互换利率攀升至2.5%，创下2018年1月以来最高，表明通胀已经不是“暂时上涨”那么简单。根据纽约联储对消费者的调查，普通美国人对1年期和3年期通胀中值预期分别跃升至3.4%和3.1%，创下2013年9月以来的最高。具体来看，消费者预期未来一年里汽油价格将跳涨9.18%，食品价格上涨5.79%，医疗费用飙升9.13%，大学教育价格攀升5.93%，房租价格上涨9.49%！而刚刚发布的美国CPI数据似乎也在佐证市场担忧。芝商所FedWatch联邦基金利率期货指标显示，2022年12月，美联储加息25个基点的概率已经从数据公布前的88%升至100%，表明金融市场认为美联储100%可能在明年年底前加息。不过，美联储对于通胀似乎并不担忧，联储主席鲍威尔坚信，任何通胀都只是暂时的。他表示，美国经济复苏正在取得切实的进展，但复苏势头并不均衡，低收入群体和少数族裔复苏速度相对更慢。事实上，在美联储引入“平均通胀目标”后，收紧货币政策的门槛已经有所提升。从产出缺口、工资收入等自上而下决定通胀中枢的因素看，通胀尚且不足以引发美联储缩减QE。在CPI数据公布后，美联储副主席克拉里达（Richard Clarida）发表讲话，也淡化了通货膨胀率上升的重要性，称这在很大程度上是由暂时性的力量造成的。他在周三将向美国国家商业经济学协会发表演讲的讲话稿中说：“近来通货膨胀率同比读数有所上升，并可能在今年晚些时候回落之前进一步走高。我预计通货膨胀率将在2022年和2023年恢复到我们2%的长期目标或者略微高一些。”穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi表示，市场可能出现本能反应，但是美联储会从容对待CPI数据。考虑到去年疫情爆发和经济封锁带来的基数效应，经济学家早已预计4月通胀数据会同比大幅增长。在美国财长耶伦上周闹出暗示联储会加息但又紧急澄清的“乌龙” 后，一些美联储高官继续释信号，称近期加息和缩减QE可能性很低。美联储理事、任内拥有联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议永久投票权的布雷纳德当地时间本周二在线上活动中认为，美联储必须展示持续的耐心，因为后新冠疫情时期的经济繁荣存在扭曲，实际上经济还远未达到联储的目标水平。今年拥有FOMC投票权的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也称，美国仍然处于复苏路径上，但完成复苏还有很长的路要走。劳动力市场较新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前存在800万就业缺口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2025,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}