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OtisBen
2021-03-10

What the hell

UBS: The CSI 300 Index is expected to reach 6,100 points and the Hang Seng Index to reach 36,000 points by the end of the year

瑞银：料沪深300指数年底见6100点、恒指见36000点

UBS: The CSI 300 Index is expected to reach 6,100 points and the Hang Seng Index to reach 36,000 points by the end of the year

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It is expected that the CSI 300 will reach 6,100 points by the end of this year, the Hang Seng Index is expected to reach 36,000 points, and the MSCI is expected to reach 126 points. The standard deviation of the valuation from the historical mean is high, but after the bank looked at the global market, everyone is high. Only some very niche markets, including the European market, are basically high below twice the mean. If the bank looks at its price-to-earnings growth rate, the current point and the bank's estimated growth, the valuation cannot be considered particularly excessive. This is the bank's valuation judgment under the new liquidity environment after the epidemic.</p><p>Liu Mingdi said that the rise in ten-year U.S. bond yields is an active expectation of the market. First, it is because COVID-19 pandemic's vaccine has been suppressed in developed countries around the world, and the figures are very clear. Second, because it has not caused instability in the creditor's rights market, the spread of investment-grade creditor's rights and risky creditor's rights has not been widened. She pointed out that the bank's investors are overseas, and markets like the United States are also changing positions, from defensive or core assets of U.S. stocks to some value stocks, and more to cyclical stocks. So it is in the process of adjusting positions.</p><p>Liu Mingdi also said that the bank has three major investment themes in 2021: the first is that mainland residents increase their stock exposure; Second, the cyclical recovery began last year; Third, comprehensively innovate and enter the \"14th Five-Year Plan\". Liu further explained that during the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" period, the \"Two Sessions\" can clearly understand that comprehensive innovation is innovation in all walks of life, including new energy vehicles, renewable energy, 5G, Internet of Things, high-end manufacturing, medical medicine, etc. She expressed her belief that innovation can increase prices, gross profit margins, net profit margins and report quality, and pointed out that innovation is an investment theme of great concern in the next few years.</p><p>Liu Mingdi also pointed out that he is optimistic about the performance of the stock index this year because of the growth of performance and the demand for household assets. The most optimistic thing is that there is a growth cycle in the cycle. This is a new cycle, not the traditional cycle defined by inventory. She suggested that everyone pay more attention to cyclical stocks with growth potential. Finally, she said that the bank published the allocation of analogy positions in December last year. At that time, the most positions were in the cycle. 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It is expected that the CSI 300 will reach 6,100 points by the end of this year, the Hang Seng Index is expected to reach 36,000 points, and the MSCI is expected to reach 126 points. The standard deviation of the valuation from the historical mean is high, but after the bank looked at the global market, everyone is high. Only some very niche markets, including the European market, are basically high below twice the mean. If the bank looks at its price-to-earnings growth rate, the current point and the bank's estimated growth, the valuation cannot be considered particularly excessive. This is the bank's valuation judgment under the new liquidity environment after the epidemic.</p><p>Liu Mingdi said that the rise in ten-year U.S. bond yields is an active expectation of the market. First, it is because COVID-19 pandemic's vaccine has been suppressed in developed countries around the world, and the figures are very clear. Second, because it has not caused instability in the creditor's rights market, the spread of investment-grade creditor's rights and risky creditor's rights has not been widened. She pointed out that the bank's investors are overseas, and markets like the United States are also changing positions, from defensive or core assets of U.S. stocks to some value stocks, and more to cyclical stocks. So it is in the process of adjusting positions.</p><p>Liu Mingdi also said that the bank has three major investment themes in 2021: the first is that mainland residents increase their stock exposure; Second, the cyclical recovery began last year; Third, comprehensively innovate and enter the \"14th Five-Year Plan\". Liu further explained that during the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" period, the \"Two Sessions\" can clearly understand that comprehensive innovation is innovation in all walks of life, including new energy vehicles, renewable energy, 5G, Internet of Things, high-end manufacturing, medical medicine, etc. She expressed her belief that innovation can increase prices, gross profit margins, net profit margins and report quality, and pointed out that innovation is an investment theme of great concern in the next few years.</p><p>Liu Mingdi also pointed out that he is optimistic about the performance of the stock index this year because of the growth of performance and the demand for household assets. The most optimistic thing is that there is a growth cycle in the cycle. This is a new cycle, not the traditional cycle defined by inventory. She suggested that everyone pay more attention to cyclical stocks with growth potential. Finally, she said that the bank published the allocation of analogy positions in December last year. At that time, the most positions were in the cycle. Consumption was standard, banks were low-allocated, and industries with obvious value such as telecommunications were high-allocated.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/450114\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/column/2/104.png","relate_stocks":{"399300":"沪深300","513600":"恒生指数ETF","02833":"恒指ETF","CHAU":"2倍做多沪深300ETF-Direxion","HSI":"恒生指数","CHAD":"DeFi Development Corp","UBS":"瑞银"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/450114","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2118783615","content_text":"瑞银中国策略主管刘鸣镝称，该行对三个重要股指都有正面观点，料今年底沪深300见6100点，恒生指数料见36000点，MSCI料见126点。估值对历史均值的标准差是偏高的，但是该行看了全球的市场以后大家都高，只有一些非常小众市场，包括欧洲市场在两倍的均值以下基本都偏高。如果该行看它的市盈增长率，现在的点位和该行估算的增长，估值也不能算特别过分的。这个就是该行在疫情以后新的流动性环境下面估值的判断。刘鸣镝表示，十年期美债收益上涨属市场主动预期，一是因为新冠疫情有疫苗出来以后在全球发达国家也得到了抑制，而且数字是很明确的。二是因为并没有引起债权市场的不稳定，投资级别的债权和风险的债权息差都没有拉开。她指出，该行投资人在海外，像美国这样的市场也在换仓位，从防御型或者美股的核心资产调到一些价值股，更多的是调到周期股。所以它是在调整仓位的过程中。刘鸣镝还表示，该行2021年有三大投资主题：第一是内地居民提高股票敞口；第二，周期性复甦去年已经开始了；第三，全面创新，进入“十四五”规划。刘氏进一步解释，“十四五”期间，“两会”能够很明确的了解到全面的创新，就是各行各业的创新，包括新能源汽车、可再生能源、5G、物联网、高端制造、医疗医药等。她表示，相信创新可以提高价格、提高毛利率、提高净利率的、提高报表品质，并指创新属今后几年非常关注的投资主题。刘鸣镝还指出，看好今年股指表现，是因为业绩增长，因为家庭资产的需求，最乐观的就是在周期里边有成长性的周期，这是新周期，还不是传统以库存定义的周期。她建议大家多关注有成长性的周期股。她最后称，该行去年12月曾发表了类比仓的配置，当时仓位元最多的就是在周期里，消费是标配的，银行是低配的，电信这些价值非常明显的行业是高配的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399300":1,"513600":0.6,"CHAD":1,"MHImain":1,"HSImain":1,"UBS":1,"MCHmain":0.6,"02833":0.6,"HHImain":0.6,"CHAU":1,"HSI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1386,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}