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鉴势
2021-03-12

Global stock markets suddenly turn, how can I make money in A shares?

真正的问题，不是A股能不能赚钱，而是你能不能在A股赚钱。最近，全球股市突然转了向。大牛股批量式走熊，股价直线下降甚至腰斩。曾被捧上热搜的明星基金经理纷纷跌落神坛，昨天还是“全世界最好的坤坤”，今天就变

Global stock markets suddenly turn, how can I make money in A shares?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":328260892,"tweetId":"328260892","gmtCreate":1615530631016,"gmtModify":1704784164383,"author":{"id":3517430212327987,"idStr":"3517430212327987","authorId":3517430212327987,"authorIdStr":"3517430212327987","name":"鉴势","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a0f523fe4c3104a416bb897458de5b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":35,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","text":"??","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328260892","repostId":1112483646,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112483646","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"华商人物与企业新媒体第一殿堂。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华商韬略","id":"27","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f34cc62ee54134a6a68fe6538c26f8"},"pubTimestamp":1615513888,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112483646?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-12 09:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Global stock markets suddenly turn, how can I make money in A shares?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112483646","media":"华商韬略","summary":"真正的问题，不是A股能不能赚钱，而是你能不能在A股赚钱。最近，全球股市突然转了向。大牛股批量式走熊，股价直线下降甚至腰斩。曾被捧上热搜的明星基金经理纷纷跌落神坛，昨天还是“全世界最好的坤坤”，今天就变","content":"The real question is not whether A-shares can make money, but whether you can make money in A-shares. Recently, global stock markets have suddenly turned direction.The big bull stocks went bearish in batches, and the stock price plummeted or even cut in half. Star fund managers who were once on the hot search have fallen from the altar one after another. Yesterday they were \"the best Kun Kun in the world\", but today they have become \"Cai Cai Kun\".The mentality and investment logic of some investors and Christians who have just entered the market have also fallen into deep doubts from firmly believing that \"A-shares have entered the era of value investment\" last year.Since the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December 1990, A-shares have been born for more than 30 years. Over the past 30 years, the market has become larger and larger, and there are more and more investors. However, this switch and turmoil from confidence bursting to inner collapse has always been with us. The question of whether A-shares can make money has also been repeatedly asked.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e037c6355e2a495b55ed53145cff7b5f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seven losses, two draws and one profit. That is, 70% of investors lose money, 20% are flat, and only 10% are likely to make a profit.The probability of making money is too small, which is the basic impression of most people about investing in the stock market.In the past decade or so, the stock market has always been compared with the property market, and the result of the comparison is that the stock market has been turned into slag in seconds.The reality is also true. In the past 20 years, buying a house and speculating in real estate has enabled most families to gain huge wealth appreciation, while stock trading has brought more unspeakable sad past events.Are A shares really so \"scum\"? That's not the case.Take the Shanghai Composite Index as an example,Since 1990, the increase has exceeded 33 times, and the annualized increase has exceeded 13%. In contrast, the annualized increase of national house prices in the same period was less than 6%.In other words, the long-term return rate of A shares greatly outperforms real estate.Not only real estate, but compared with other major investment methods,The long-term returns of A shares are also the highest. For example, the annualized yield of the bond market represented by the 10-year Treasury Bond is less than 4%, while the annualized increase of commodities measured by the CRB index is less than 3%.Compared with the increase of Shanghai Composite Index, the real increase of A shares is also underestimated.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Two methods have been used to calculate the A-share yield from the opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange to 2017, which is closer to the real situation. The calculation results of both methods greatly exceed the annualized increase of 14%.One way to do this is,At the beginning of each year, buy an equal amount of all A shares, and the investment income is 576 times, with an annualized increase of 28.0% in 27 years;Another way is,If you buy the same amount of all A shares at the beginning of each year, the investment income will be 256 times, with an annualized increase of 24.0%.Investing in A shares according to this \"fool's\" method even exceeds Buffett's annualized rate of return. In the past 30 years, the annualized rate of return of Warren Buffett is only in the early 20%.A-shares actually hide such a big profit-making benefit. Why can't ordinary investors feel it?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2713cd5a4e7e35fb867ab95f8547651b\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why do most investors still lose money, or even always lose money?The answer is cruel and true: it's not whether the stock market can make money, but whether you can make money.The annualized rate of return of A-shares is the highest among all major investment varieties, but its volatility is also much higher than that of other investment varieties. In the past 30 years, the largest annual increase of Shanghai Composite Index was 166% in 1992, and the largest decline was 65% in 2008. In most years, the yield level of A shares deviated far from the annualized rate of return.In the midst of huge fluctuations, stepping on the wrong rhythm of operations may turn the originally profitable investment into a huge loss, not to mention that many investors chase the ups and downs, making mistakes back and forth.On the one hand, the huge volatility of A shares comes from the Chinese economy and the structure of listed companies.For a long time in the past, China's economic growth was mainly driven by investment, which was reflected in the stock market, that is, most of the profits of listed companies came from cyclical industries such as banking, real estate and resources.This part of the company's profits fluctuate obviously with the economic cycle, thus causing high volatility of A-shares on the profit side.On the other hand, it is the investor structure of A shares.According to the market value of free circulation, in the first quarter of 2020, institutional investment in A-shares accounted for 30.3% (10.8% for public offering, 8% for foreign capital, 7.1% for insurance funds, and 4.4% for private offering), natural persons and legal persons accounted for 25.1%, and retail investors accounted for 38.3% of the market value.Retail investors are still the largest holding group in the market.The irrational trading behavior of retail investors is most likely to make the market rise too much when it rises and fall too much when it falls, thus exacerbating the fluctuation of A shares beyond the profitability level.Judging from the latest round of bull-bear conversion, in the bull market from June 2013 to June 2015, the profit growth rate of listed companies was only about 10%, but the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 1849 points to 5178 points, and the PE rose from 8 times to 21 times, an increase of 2.5 times. In the bear market from June 2015 to January 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5,178 points to 2,440 points, of which PE dropped from 21 times to 11 times, but the performance of most companies did not drop significantly.These fluctuations are almost all driven by emotions, and are largely caused by retail investors, which ultimately deeply hurt retail investors.On the one hand, most retail investors do not have valuation concepts and cyclical thinking, and more follow the trend based on the market's profit-making effect. Swarm in when the bull market is at its craziest and the valuation bubble reaches an all-time high, and cut out when the bear market is at its lowest and the valuation returns to an all-time low. As mentioned earlier, one or several waves of buying high and selling low will lead to huge losses or even loss of money.On the other hand, the huge stimulation brought by huge fluctuations and the convenience of stock market trading operations have caused most retail investors to fall into the quagmire of pursuing sudden wealth and frequent short-term trading. People's long-term judgment on things must exceed short-term judgment. The accuracy of your judgment on the rise and fall of a company's performance in the next few years is most likely higher than your judgment on the rise and fall of its stock price in the next few days.What I believe is the long-term value of the company, but what I buy and sell is the short-term value. This leads even many smart investors to eventually fall into the curse of \"why am I so smart but always lose money\" because of frequent short-term mistakes.The same logic is placed on the property market. It is the relatively small fluctuations in the property market, the very complicated transaction procedures, and the high transaction costs that make ordinary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Can also fully enjoy its value-added benefits.Emotional fluctuations often cause \"Mr. Market\" to fail, and the stock price often deviates significantly from the reasonable value, which is a fatal injury to those who buy high and sell low, but it is a golden opportunity for those who buy low and sell high. For example, the valuation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange once dropped to an all-time low in early 2014, with a PE (TTM) of only about 8 times. At that time, Moutai's PE (TTM) was even less than 9 times, less than 20% of the current level.Looking back now, the time when people panic and scold their mothers is often a good time for investment layout. It is also this huge fluctuation that deviates from the company's value that has created many bulls who have become rich through short-term high selling and low buying. Some hot money tycoons started from tens of thousands of yuan to hundreds of millions of dollars, and their wealth accumulation speed far exceeds Buffett and other investment gurus from mature markets.The timing opportunities brought about by huge volatility have also created income myths, such as Wang Yawei, a former famous fund manager of China Asset Management. Since the end of 2005, when Wang Yawei took over the China Select Market, the net value has increased 11 times in more than six years.There is also a type of investor who ignores market fluctuations, grows together with outstanding companies through firm long-term shareholding, and ultimately gets billions of wealth returns, such as Liu Yuansheng of Vanke,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>Gong Hongjia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Cen Junda of.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2fae31f44ed28af1735000957fd88a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For a long time, A-shares have been considered to run counter to China's economic trend and cannot serve as a barometer of economic development.A common piece of evidence is that China's GDP has more than tripled since 2007, but the Shanghai Composite Index is still far from the 6,124 points set in October 2007.This view seems reasonable, but it is actually specious. The most fundamental mistake lies in the timing choice.In 2007, the Shanghai Composite hit 6,124 points, which was the craziest time of the bull market. PE (TTM) reached more than 60 times, but currently it is only about 16 times. It is obviously unreasonable to compare the market with the relatively normal market today.If we put aside the factors of valuation differences and take 2005 with similar valuations as the starting point for comparison, the results will be more valuable for reference.In the 15 years from 2005 to 2019, the annualized growth rate of my country's nominal GDP was 12.8%. During the same period, the annualized growth rate of Wind All A was 14%, that of CSI 300 was 9.8%, and that of CSI 800 was 10.2%. Economic fundamentals are basically the same.From the changes of leading companies in A-share market value, we can also see the changes of China's economic fundamentals.Before 2000, the A-share market value leader had long been used as a TV producer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600839\">Sichuan Changhong</a>Occupy. Correspondingly, it was still in the era of shortage economy at that time, and the traditional manufacturing industry represented by home appliances was in the highlight era of rapid performance growth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb78c7c6bdc785e6d0f8cac1f2beb86c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">▲ Top 10 A-share market capitalization as of December 31, 1998Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Straight flush</a>iFinDIn 2010, the top A-share market value was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">PetroChina</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01398\">Industrial Bank of China</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>And other financial and resource companies-the corresponding economic background is that China is ushering in the rapid advancement of industrialization and urbanization, and cyclical investment industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, petroleum and coal, and real estate have become the \"four king kongs\" driving economic growth, and these industries The financing model that relies extremely on credit has made the scale and importance of banks unprecedentedly strong.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce4f08ad5758d655496d7b5c1fde131\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">▲ Top 10 A shares by total market capitalization as of December 31, 2010Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Straight flush</a>iFinDAs of February 18th, before the Japanese round of decline, among the top ten A-share companies by market capitalization, in addition to banks and insurance, the newly listed representatives of high-end liquor-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>, and the leader of the new energy vehicle industry chain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4ff8237ff636919572f2c48db5d5bd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">▲ Top 10 A-shares by total market value on February 18, 2021Source: Flush iFinDAs the former A-share boss,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600839\">Sichuan Changhong</a>The current market value is less than half of what it was 20 years ago.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">PetroChina</a>Compared with the historical peak, the market value has dropped by as much as 90%.This is still an objective reflection of economic trends.First, in the era of surplus economy, the traditional manufacturing industry has fallen into the fierce red sea of homogeneous competition, with extremely meager profits, and channels and traffic have become the most important resources, making Internet giants rise rapidly; Second, under the trend of consumption-driven economic growth and continuous upgrading of consumption, the barbaric growth stage of heavy chemical industry has passed, and consumers are paying more and more attention to the emotional experience and personalization of products, thus giving birth to more and more high-end consumer goods companies with distinctive features, moving towards the peak of performance and market value.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f46d00247aa7d55ac04998858e7f2c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Another point where A-shares are spit out is that speculation prevails in the market, and the market is divorced from the reality of value. Value investment seems to be acclimatized in A-shares.This seems to be true at a single time. Many junk-themed stocks without performance support often have skyrocketing stock prices, while good companies with stable and excellent performance are tepid. However, looking at the time, A-shares are actually a very rational and effective market. The long-term trend of listed companies' stock prices is highly related to their performance. The so-called short-term depends on potential and long-term depends on quality.Looking at it now, companies that have gone through the baptism of time, gone through the bull-bear cycle, and finally became more than 100 times big bull stocks are basically excellent companies that investors are familiar with, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Vanke,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000538\">Yunnan Baiyao</a>Etc.Kweichow Moutai went public in 2001, and its net profit increased from 328 million that year to 41.2 billion in 2019;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>It went public in 1996, and its net profit increased from 186 million that year to 24.6 billion in 2019. The profits of the two famous companies have increased by more than 100 times, which has become a solid foundation for the long-term surge in stock prices.On the contrary, the popular theme stocks that were once popular in the market for a while have been fired to an inflated market value, and they are all chicken feathers in the end. Take LeTV and Stormwind Technology, which were delisted last year, as examples. They have been hyped by the market. At their highest market value, they reached 170 billion and 40 billion respectively, but when they were finally delisted, only 700 million and 100 million were left.In the long run, valuation fluctuations caused by speculation have little impact on the market value of listed companies, and performance is always the most important factor affecting the market value. Companies that can continue to create value for customers and shareholders for a long time will eventually be recognized by investors, and investors who recognize and insist on such companies will always make profits that exceed expectations.Time is the only criterion for testing the value of an enterprise.Value and rationality have always been there, but they are deeply buried in the ups and downs, and are mastered and practiced in the hands of a few people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5848b959b41914ede5553657d3bf2808\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Short bulls and long bears are another big helplessness for investors to the current A-shares.Since 2000, the average duration of the A-share bull market is only 20 months, while the average duration of the bear market is as high as 37 months. The signs of short bull and long bear market are extremely prominent, and it is considered to be the fate that A-shares can't get rid of.On the other hand, in the U.S. stock market, the Dow has experienced five rounds of bull-bear conversion since 1900. The average duration of each bull market is as high as 12 years, and the duration of the bear market is only 2 years. Its characteristics of long bulls and short bears are in sharp contrast to A shares.This has deepened people's impression that it is difficult to make money in A shares.What leads to this phenomenon is the different performances of both sides in the unilateral bull market. In the three bull market cycles in the past 20 years, the compound annualized increase of Shanghai Composite Index was 112%, 142% and 70% respectively, with an average annualized increase of 108%. Correspondingly, the annualized increase of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the bull market is only about 20%. The short-term surge of the bull market will inevitably lead to abnormally high valuations. In the end, the valuation bubble can only be digested through a long decline. The bull market has a moderate increase, and with the digestion and support of performance, it can naturally flow slowly.A deep study of the difference between the bull-bear cycle of A-shares and U.S. stocks lies in the investor structure and the profit structure of listed companies.U.S. stock investors are mainly institutions, and their profit sources are mainly weak cyclical industries such as consumption and technology. This market environment makes the valuation of U.S. stocks relatively stable and profits grow steadily, thus providing the foundation for a long-term bull. However, A-share investors are mainly retail investors, and their profit sources are mainly strong cyclical industries. The valuation and profits naturally lack stability, which makes it difficult for A-shares to get out of the long-term bull market.But now, the market environment of A-shares is moving closer to mature markets such as US stocks.The proportion of investment institutions is increasing. Since 2015, the proportion of institutional investors in the free float market value has increased by more than 2% every year and shows signs of acceleration.In the profit structure, with the substantial increase in the number of IPOs of consumer and technology companies in recent years, the market value and profit proportion of A-share industries with weak cycles are also getting higher and higher.These changes are laying the foundation for the long bull market of A-shares. Even if the market suddenly turns from hot to cold this year, A-shares will really usher in a long-term slow bull market, and the fate of short bull and long bear will eventually be broken.But this does not mean that ordinary investors will definitely make money.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e81473a210179ceea50879ef270d3903\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be successful in life and profitable in investing, cognitive ability is very important.In the eyes of some people, the stock market is chaotic, the ups and downs are completely random, and there are no rules to follow behind it. Stock trading is just a chance; In the eyes of others, the stock market is linear. When it goes up, it seems to keep rising, and when it goes down, it seems to keep falling, and there will never be a cycle.The value of cognition lies in finding relatively certain laws in chaos and understanding cyclical changes in ups and downs, so as to improve the ability to grasp opportunities and avoid risks, thereby increasing the probability of success and profit.But having cognitive ability is far from enough. What is more important is the unity of knowledge and action. If actions and practice always run counter to your own rational cognition, even if your cognition is accurate, you may not really be able to make money in the stock market.Most importantly, overcome the flaws of one's own character and the common weaknesses of human nature. Only by controlling emotions and desires, restraining the illusion of getting rich, adhering to long-termism, believing in common sense and the power of time, and believing in what you believe, can you turn your belief into reality.Indispensable, of course, is the grace of national destiny.Buffett said, \"My life has largely benefited from the 'uterus dividend'. Being lucky enough to be born as a white man in the United States, where the national strength and economy are booming, is the main reason for my investment success.\"Chinese investors are actually lucky. In the past few decades, China's economy has started to catch up from almost poverty, providing huge opportunities for the capital market. In the next 30 years, China's greater development in the unprecedented changes in a hundred years will provide more and greatest opportunities.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global stock markets suddenly turn, how can I make money in A shares?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal stock markets suddenly turn, how can I make money in A shares?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/27\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f34cc62ee54134a6a68fe6538c26f8);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华商韬略 \n2021-03-12 09:51\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe real question is not whether A-shares can make money, but whether you can make money in A-shares. Recently, global stock markets have suddenly turned direction.The big bull stocks went bearish in batches, and the stock price plummeted or even cut in half. Star fund managers who were once on the hot search have fallen from the altar one after another. Yesterday they were \"the best Kun Kun in the world\", but today they have become \"Cai Cai Kun\".The mentality and investment logic of some investors and Christians who have just entered the market have also fallen into deep doubts from firmly believing that \"A-shares have entered the era of value investment\" last year.Since the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December 1990, A-shares have been born for more than 30 years. Over the past 30 years, the market has become larger and larger, and there are more and more investors. However, this switch and turmoil from confidence bursting to inner collapse has always been with us. The question of whether A-shares can make money has also been repeatedly asked.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e037c6355e2a495b55ed53145cff7b5f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seven losses, two draws and one profit. That is, 70% of investors lose money, 20% are flat, and only 10% are likely to make a profit.The probability of making money is too small, which is the basic impression of most people about investing in the stock market.In the past decade or so, the stock market has always been compared with the property market, and the result of the comparison is that the stock market has been turned into slag in seconds.The reality is also true. In the past 20 years, buying a house and speculating in real estate has enabled most families to gain huge wealth appreciation, while stock trading has brought more unspeakable sad past events.Are A shares really so \"scum\"? That's not the case.Take the Shanghai Composite Index as an example,Since 1990, the increase has exceeded 33 times, and the annualized increase has exceeded 13%. In contrast, the annualized increase of national house prices in the same period was less than 6%.In other words, the long-term return rate of A shares greatly outperforms real estate.Not only real estate, but compared with other major investment methods,The long-term returns of A shares are also the highest. For example, the annualized yield of the bond market represented by the 10-year Treasury Bond is less than 4%, while the annualized increase of commodities measured by the CRB index is less than 3%.Compared with the increase of Shanghai Composite Index, the real increase of A shares is also underestimated.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Two methods have been used to calculate the A-share yield from the opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange to 2017, which is closer to the real situation. The calculation results of both methods greatly exceed the annualized increase of 14%.One way to do this is,At the beginning of each year, buy an equal amount of all A shares, and the investment income is 576 times, with an annualized increase of 28.0% in 27 years;Another way is,If you buy the same amount of all A shares at the beginning of each year, the investment income will be 256 times, with an annualized increase of 24.0%.Investing in A shares according to this \"fool's\" method even exceeds Buffett's annualized rate of return. In the past 30 years, the annualized rate of return of Warren Buffett is only in the early 20%.A-shares actually hide such a big profit-making benefit. Why can't ordinary investors feel it?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2713cd5a4e7e35fb867ab95f8547651b\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why do most investors still lose money, or even always lose money?The answer is cruel and true: it's not whether the stock market can make money, but whether you can make money.The annualized rate of return of A-shares is the highest among all major investment varieties, but its volatility is also much higher than that of other investment varieties. In the past 30 years, the largest annual increase of Shanghai Composite Index was 166% in 1992, and the largest decline was 65% in 2008. In most years, the yield level of A shares deviated far from the annualized rate of return.In the midst of huge fluctuations, stepping on the wrong rhythm of operations may turn the originally profitable investment into a huge loss, not to mention that many investors chase the ups and downs, making mistakes back and forth.On the one hand, the huge volatility of A shares comes from the Chinese economy and the structure of listed companies.For a long time in the past, China's economic growth was mainly driven by investment, which was reflected in the stock market, that is, most of the profits of listed companies came from cyclical industries such as banking, real estate and resources.This part of the company's profits fluctuate obviously with the economic cycle, thus causing high volatility of A-shares on the profit side.On the other hand, it is the investor structure of A shares.According to the market value of free circulation, in the first quarter of 2020, institutional investment in A-shares accounted for 30.3% (10.8% for public offering, 8% for foreign capital, 7.1% for insurance funds, and 4.4% for private offering), natural persons and legal persons accounted for 25.1%, and retail investors accounted for 38.3% of the market value.Retail investors are still the largest holding group in the market.The irrational trading behavior of retail investors is most likely to make the market rise too much when it rises and fall too much when it falls, thus exacerbating the fluctuation of A shares beyond the profitability level.Judging from the latest round of bull-bear conversion, in the bull market from June 2013 to June 2015, the profit growth rate of listed companies was only about 10%, but the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 1849 points to 5178 points, and the PE rose from 8 times to 21 times, an increase of 2.5 times. In the bear market from June 2015 to January 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5,178 points to 2,440 points, of which PE dropped from 21 times to 11 times, but the performance of most companies did not drop significantly.These fluctuations are almost all driven by emotions, and are largely caused by retail investors, which ultimately deeply hurt retail investors.On the one hand, most retail investors do not have valuation concepts and cyclical thinking, and more follow the trend based on the market's profit-making effect. Swarm in when the bull market is at its craziest and the valuation bubble reaches an all-time high, and cut out when the bear market is at its lowest and the valuation returns to an all-time low. As mentioned earlier, one or several waves of buying high and selling low will lead to huge losses or even loss of money.On the other hand, the huge stimulation brought by huge fluctuations and the convenience of stock market trading operations have caused most retail investors to fall into the quagmire of pursuing sudden wealth and frequent short-term trading. People's long-term judgment on things must exceed short-term judgment. The accuracy of your judgment on the rise and fall of a company's performance in the next few years is most likely higher than your judgment on the rise and fall of its stock price in the next few days.What I believe is the long-term value of the company, but what I buy and sell is the short-term value. This leads even many smart investors to eventually fall into the curse of \"why am I so smart but always lose money\" because of frequent short-term mistakes.The same logic is placed on the property market. It is the relatively small fluctuations in the property market, the very complicated transaction procedures, and the high transaction costs that make ordinary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Can also fully enjoy its value-added benefits.Emotional fluctuations often cause \"Mr. Market\" to fail, and the stock price often deviates significantly from the reasonable value, which is a fatal injury to those who buy high and sell low, but it is a golden opportunity for those who buy low and sell high. For example, the valuation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange once dropped to an all-time low in early 2014, with a PE (TTM) of only about 8 times. At that time, Moutai's PE (TTM) was even less than 9 times, less than 20% of the current level.Looking back now, the time when people panic and scold their mothers is often a good time for investment layout. It is also this huge fluctuation that deviates from the company's value that has created many bulls who have become rich through short-term high selling and low buying. Some hot money tycoons started from tens of thousands of yuan to hundreds of millions of dollars, and their wealth accumulation speed far exceeds Buffett and other investment gurus from mature markets.The timing opportunities brought about by huge volatility have also created income myths, such as Wang Yawei, a former famous fund manager of China Asset Management. Since the end of 2005, when Wang Yawei took over the China Select Market, the net value has increased 11 times in more than six years.There is also a type of investor who ignores market fluctuations, grows together with outstanding companies through firm long-term shareholding, and ultimately gets billions of wealth returns, such as Liu Yuansheng of Vanke,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>Gong Hongjia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Cen Junda of.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2fae31f44ed28af1735000957fd88a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For a long time, A-shares have been considered to run counter to China's economic trend and cannot serve as a barometer of economic development.A common piece of evidence is that China's GDP has more than tripled since 2007, but the Shanghai Composite Index is still far from the 6,124 points set in October 2007.This view seems reasonable, but it is actually specious. The most fundamental mistake lies in the timing choice.In 2007, the Shanghai Composite hit 6,124 points, which was the craziest time of the bull market. PE (TTM) reached more than 60 times, but currently it is only about 16 times. It is obviously unreasonable to compare the market with the relatively normal market today.If we put aside the factors of valuation differences and take 2005 with similar valuations as the starting point for comparison, the results will be more valuable for reference.In the 15 years from 2005 to 2019, the annualized growth rate of my country's nominal GDP was 12.8%. During the same period, the annualized growth rate of Wind All A was 14%, that of CSI 300 was 9.8%, and that of CSI 800 was 10.2%. Economic fundamentals are basically the same.From the changes of leading companies in A-share market value, we can also see the changes of China's economic fundamentals.Before 2000, the A-share market value leader had long been used as a TV producer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600839\">Sichuan Changhong</a>Occupy. Correspondingly, it was still in the era of shortage economy at that time, and the traditional manufacturing industry represented by home appliances was in the highlight era of rapid performance growth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb78c7c6bdc785e6d0f8cac1f2beb86c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">▲ Top 10 A-share market capitalization as of December 31, 1998Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Straight flush</a>iFinDIn 2010, the top A-share market value was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">PetroChina</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01398\">Industrial Bank of China</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>And other financial and resource companies-the corresponding economic background is that China is ushering in the rapid advancement of industrialization and urbanization, and cyclical investment industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, petroleum and coal, and real estate have become the \"four king kongs\" driving economic growth, and these industries The financing model that relies extremely on credit has made the scale and importance of banks unprecedentedly strong.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce4f08ad5758d655496d7b5c1fde131\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">▲ Top 10 A shares by total market capitalization as of December 31, 2010Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Straight flush</a>iFinDAs of February 18th, before the Japanese round of decline, among the top ten A-share companies by market capitalization, in addition to banks and insurance, the newly listed representatives of high-end liquor-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>, and the leader of the new energy vehicle industry chain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4ff8237ff636919572f2c48db5d5bd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">▲ Top 10 A-shares by total market value on February 18, 2021Source: Flush iFinDAs the former A-share boss,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600839\">Sichuan Changhong</a>The current market value is less than half of what it was 20 years ago.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">PetroChina</a>Compared with the historical peak, the market value has dropped by as much as 90%.This is still an objective reflection of economic trends.First, in the era of surplus economy, the traditional manufacturing industry has fallen into the fierce red sea of homogeneous competition, with extremely meager profits, and channels and traffic have become the most important resources, making Internet giants rise rapidly; Second, under the trend of consumption-driven economic growth and continuous upgrading of consumption, the barbaric growth stage of heavy chemical industry has passed, and consumers are paying more and more attention to the emotional experience and personalization of products, thus giving birth to more and more high-end consumer goods companies with distinctive features, moving towards the peak of performance and market value.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f46d00247aa7d55ac04998858e7f2c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Another point where A-shares are spit out is that speculation prevails in the market, and the market is divorced from the reality of value. Value investment seems to be acclimatized in A-shares.This seems to be true at a single time. Many junk-themed stocks without performance support often have skyrocketing stock prices, while good companies with stable and excellent performance are tepid. However, looking at the time, A-shares are actually a very rational and effective market. The long-term trend of listed companies' stock prices is highly related to their performance. The so-called short-term depends on potential and long-term depends on quality.Looking at it now, companies that have gone through the baptism of time, gone through the bull-bear cycle, and finally became more than 100 times big bull stocks are basically excellent companies that investors are familiar with, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Vanke,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000538\">Yunnan Baiyao</a>Etc.Kweichow Moutai went public in 2001, and its net profit increased from 328 million that year to 41.2 billion in 2019;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>It went public in 1996, and its net profit increased from 186 million that year to 24.6 billion in 2019. The profits of the two famous companies have increased by more than 100 times, which has become a solid foundation for the long-term surge in stock prices.On the contrary, the popular theme stocks that were once popular in the market for a while have been fired to an inflated market value, and they are all chicken feathers in the end. Take LeTV and Stormwind Technology, which were delisted last year, as examples. They have been hyped by the market. At their highest market value, they reached 170 billion and 40 billion respectively, but when they were finally delisted, only 700 million and 100 million were left.In the long run, valuation fluctuations caused by speculation have little impact on the market value of listed companies, and performance is always the most important factor affecting the market value. Companies that can continue to create value for customers and shareholders for a long time will eventually be recognized by investors, and investors who recognize and insist on such companies will always make profits that exceed expectations.Time is the only criterion for testing the value of an enterprise.Value and rationality have always been there, but they are deeply buried in the ups and downs, and are mastered and practiced in the hands of a few people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5848b959b41914ede5553657d3bf2808\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Short bulls and long bears are another big helplessness for investors to the current A-shares.Since 2000, the average duration of the A-share bull market is only 20 months, while the average duration of the bear market is as high as 37 months. The signs of short bull and long bear market are extremely prominent, and it is considered to be the fate that A-shares can't get rid of.On the other hand, in the U.S. stock market, the Dow has experienced five rounds of bull-bear conversion since 1900. The average duration of each bull market is as high as 12 years, and the duration of the bear market is only 2 years. Its characteristics of long bulls and short bears are in sharp contrast to A shares.This has deepened people's impression that it is difficult to make money in A shares.What leads to this phenomenon is the different performances of both sides in the unilateral bull market. In the three bull market cycles in the past 20 years, the compound annualized increase of Shanghai Composite Index was 112%, 142% and 70% respectively, with an average annualized increase of 108%. Correspondingly, the annualized increase of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the bull market is only about 20%. The short-term surge of the bull market will inevitably lead to abnormally high valuations. In the end, the valuation bubble can only be digested through a long decline. The bull market has a moderate increase, and with the digestion and support of performance, it can naturally flow slowly.A deep study of the difference between the bull-bear cycle of A-shares and U.S. stocks lies in the investor structure and the profit structure of listed companies.U.S. stock investors are mainly institutions, and their profit sources are mainly weak cyclical industries such as consumption and technology. This market environment makes the valuation of U.S. stocks relatively stable and profits grow steadily, thus providing the foundation for a long-term bull. However, A-share investors are mainly retail investors, and their profit sources are mainly strong cyclical industries. The valuation and profits naturally lack stability, which makes it difficult for A-shares to get out of the long-term bull market.But now, the market environment of A-shares is moving closer to mature markets such as US stocks.The proportion of investment institutions is increasing. Since 2015, the proportion of institutional investors in the free float market value has increased by more than 2% every year and shows signs of acceleration.In the profit structure, with the substantial increase in the number of IPOs of consumer and technology companies in recent years, the market value and profit proportion of A-share industries with weak cycles are also getting higher and higher.These changes are laying the foundation for the long bull market of A-shares. Even if the market suddenly turns from hot to cold this year, A-shares will really usher in a long-term slow bull market, and the fate of short bull and long bear will eventually be broken.But this does not mean that ordinary investors will definitely make money.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e81473a210179ceea50879ef270d3903\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be successful in life and profitable in investing, cognitive ability is very important.In the eyes of some people, the stock market is chaotic, the ups and downs are completely random, and there are no rules to follow behind it. Stock trading is just a chance; In the eyes of others, the stock market is linear. When it goes up, it seems to keep rising, and when it goes down, it seems to keep falling, and there will never be a cycle.The value of cognition lies in finding relatively certain laws in chaos and understanding cyclical changes in ups and downs, so as to improve the ability to grasp opportunities and avoid risks, thereby increasing the probability of success and profit.But having cognitive ability is far from enough. What is more important is the unity of knowledge and action. If actions and practice always run counter to your own rational cognition, even if your cognition is accurate, you may not really be able to make money in the stock market.Most importantly, overcome the flaws of one's own character and the common weaknesses of human nature. Only by controlling emotions and desires, restraining the illusion of getting rich, adhering to long-termism, believing in common sense and the power of time, and believing in what you believe, can you turn your belief into reality.Indispensable, of course, is the grace of national destiny.Buffett said, \"My life has largely benefited from the 'uterus dividend'. Being lucky enough to be born as a white man in the United States, where the national strength and economy are booming, is the main reason for my investment success.\"Chinese investors are actually lucky. In the past few decades, China's economy has started to catch up from almost poverty, providing huge opportunities for the capital market. In the next 30 years, China's greater development in the unprecedented changes in a hundred years will provide more and greatest opportunities.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112483646","content_text":"真正的问题，不是A股能不能赚钱，而是你能不能在A股赚钱。最近，全球股市突然转了向。大牛股批量式走熊，股价直线下降甚至腰斩。曾被捧上热搜的明星基金经理纷纷跌落神坛，昨天还是“全世界最好的坤坤”，今天就变成了“菜菜坤”。一些初入市场的股民、基民的心态和投资逻辑，也从去年坚信“A股进入价值投资时代”，到如今陷入了深深的怀疑。从1990年12月上交所成立算，A股诞生30年有余。30年来，市场规模越来越大，投资者越来越多，但这种从信心爆棚到内心崩溃的切换与动荡，却一直如影相随。A股到底能不能赚钱的问题，也被反复提问。七亏二平一赚。即股民中有70%亏损，20%持平，只有10%的人可能盈利。赚钱概率太小，是大多数人对投资股市的基本印象。过去十几年，股市总被拿来与楼市对比，对比的结果多是股市被秒成渣。现实也是如此，过去20年，买房炒楼让绝大多数家庭获得了巨大的财富增值，炒股带来的则更多是难以言说的伤心往事。A股真的如此“渣”吗？事实并非如此。以上证综指为例，1990年以来，涨幅超过33倍，年化涨幅超过13%。与之相比，全国房价同期年化涨幅不到6%。也就是说，A股的长期回报率大大跑赢了房地产。不止房地产，跟其他主要投资方式比，A股的的长期收益也是最高的。比如，10年期国债代表的债市年化收益率不到4%，而以CRB指数衡量的大宗商品年化涨幅不到3%。以上证综指涨幅来比较，A股的真实涨幅也被低估了。海通证券曾以两种方法计算过上交所开市到2017年，更接近真实情况的A股收益率。其两种方法的计算结果，都大大超过14%的年化涨幅。一种方法是，每年年初买入等额所有A股，投资收益为576倍，27年的年化涨幅为28.0%；另一种方法是，每年年初买入等量所有A股，投资收益为256倍，年化涨幅为24.0%。按这种“傻瓜”的方法投资A股，其年化收益率甚至超过了巴菲特。最近30年，股神巴菲特的年化收益率也不过20%出头。A股竟然隐藏着如此大的赚钱效益，为什么普通股民感受不到？为什么大多数投资者依然亏损，甚至总是亏损？答案残酷而真实：不是股市能不能赚钱，而是你能不能赚钱。A股的年化收益率是所有大类投资品种中最高的，但其波动率也远高于其他投资品种。30年来，上证综指年度最大涨幅是1992年的166%，最大跌幅是2008年的65%，大多数年份，A股的收益率水平，都远远偏离年化收益率。巨大波动中，踏错一波节奏的操作，就可能让本来赚钱的投资变成巨大亏损，更何况很多投资者追涨杀跌，来回踏错。A股的巨大波动率，一方面来自中国经济和上市公司结构。过去很长一段时间，中国经济增长主要靠投资拉动，反映在股市，就是上市公司的利润绝大部分来自于银行、地产以及资源等周期类行业。这部分公司利润随着经济周期呈现明显的上下波动，从而在盈利端造成了A股的高波动性。另一方面，就是A股的投资者结构。按自由流通市值计算，2020年一季度，A股的机构投资占比为30.3%（公募10.8%、外资8%、保险类资金7.1%、私募4.4%），自然人和法人占比25.1%，散户持股市值占比为38.3%。散户仍然是市场最大的持仓群体。散户的非理性交易行为，最容易使市场涨的时候容易涨过头，跌的时候容易跌过头，进而在盈利水平之外加剧A股的波动。以最近一轮牛熊转换来看，2013年6月到2015年6月的牛市行情中，上市公司盈利增速只有10%左右，但上证综指从1849点上涨到5178点，PE从8倍上升到21倍，上涨了2.5倍。2015年6月到2019年1月的熊市行情中，上证综指从5178点下跌到2440点，其中PE从21倍降到11倍，但绝大部分公司业绩并没大幅下降。这些波动，几乎都是情绪驱动所致，且很大程度上是由散户造成，最终也深深伤害了散户。一方面，大部分散户没有估值概念和周期思维，更多的是根据市场的赚钱效应从众跟风。在牛市最疯狂、估值泡沫到达历史高点时蜂拥而入，在熊市最低迷、估值回到历史低位时割肉出局。如前所述，一波或几波高买低卖，便会导致巨大亏损，甚至血本无归。另一方面，巨大波动带来的巨大刺激感及股市交易操作的便利性，使大部分散户陷入追求暴富、短线频繁交易的泥潭。人们对事物的长期判断一定超过短期判断，你对某家公司未来几年业绩涨跌判断的准确性，大概率高于你对它在未来几天股价涨跌的判断。相信的是公司的长期价值，买卖的却是短期价值，这导致即便很多聪明的投资者，最终也因为频繁的短期做错，陷入“为什么我那么聪明但却总是亏损”的魔咒。同样的逻辑放在楼市，正是楼市的波动相对较小，且交易程序非常复杂，交易成本高企，才让普通老百姓也能够充分享受其增值收益。情绪波动让“市场先生”经常失灵，股价经常大幅偏离合理价值，是对高买低卖者的致命伤害，但却是低吸高抛者的黄金机遇。比如，上证估值曾经在2014年初下探至历史最低点，PE（TTM）只有8倍左右，彼时茅台的PE（TTM）甚至不到9倍，不到现在的20%。现在回头看，让众人恐慌、骂娘的时点，往往是投资布局的好时机。也正是这种偏离公司价值的巨大波动，造就了很多通过短线高抛低吸而暴富的牛散。一些游资大佬，从几万元起家做到了亿万身家，其财富积累速度，远超巴菲特等来自成熟市场的投资大师。巨大波动性带来的择时机会，也创造过收益神话，典型如华夏基金前著名基金经理王亚伟。从2005年底，王亚伟接手主理华夏精选大盘开始，在6年多时间里，净值增长了11倍。还有一类投资人，不理会市场波动，通过坚定的长期持股，和优秀公司共同成长，最终获得数十亿财富回报，比如万科的刘元生、海康威视的龚虹嘉、恒瑞医药的岑均达。很长时间里，A股都被认为和中国经济走势背道而驰，不能充当经济发展的晴雨表。一个常用的证据是，2007年以来中国GDP增长了3倍以上，但是上证指数离2007年10月创下的6124点还相差甚远。这种观点貌似有理，其实似是而非。最根本的错误，在于时点选择。2007年上证创下6124点，已是牛市最疯狂的时候，PE（TTM）达到了60倍以上，而目前只有16倍左右。拿泡沫严重的市场和如今相对正常的市场进行比较，显然是不合理的。如果抛开估值差异的因素，以估值相近的2005年作为比较的起点，结果更有参考价值。2005-2019年的15年间，我国名义GDP年化增速为12.8%，同期万得全A的年化涨幅为14%，沪深300为9.8%，中证800为10.2%，A股涨幅跟经济基本面基本一致。从A股市值领先公司的变迁，我们也能看到中国经济基本面的变化。2000年之前，A股市值龙头曾长期被生产电视机的四川长虹占据。与之对应的是，当时还处于短缺经济时代，以家电为代表的传统制造业，正处于业绩高速成长的高光时代。▲1998年12月31日A股总市值前10图源：同花顺iFinD2010年，A股市值排名靠前的是中国石油、工商银行和中国神华等金融和资源类公司——对应的经济背景是，中国迎来工业化和城镇化高速推进，钢铁、有色、石油煤炭、地产等周期性投资行业成为拉动经济增长的“四大金刚”，而这些行业极度依赖信贷的融资模式，则使银行的规模和重要性变得空前强大。▲2010年12月31日A股总市值前10图源：同花顺iFinD截至2月18日本轮下跌前，A股前十大市值公司中，除了银行和保险之外，新上榜的是高端白酒的代表——贵州茅台和五粮液，以及新能源汽车产业链龙头宁德时代。▲2021年2月18日A股总市值前10图源：同花顺iFinD作为曾经的A股老大，四川长虹目前的市值已经不到20年前的一半，中国石油市值与历史最高峰相比，更是下降了90%之多。这依然是经济趋势的客观反映。一是在过剩经济时代，传统制造业陷入同质竞争的惨烈红海，利润极其微薄，渠道和流量成为最重要的资源，使互联网巨头迅速崛起；二是在消费驱动经济增长和消费持续升级的时代潮流下，重化工业的野蛮生长阶段已经过去，消费者越发重视产品的情感体验和个性化，由此催生出越来越多有鲜明特色的高端消费品企业，走向业绩和市值的巅峰。A股被吐槽的另一个点，市场投机炒作盛行，行情都是脱离价值实际，价值投资在A股似乎水土不服。这在单独的某个时间看，似乎是对的，很多没有业绩支撑的垃圾题材股经常股价暴涨，而业绩稳定优异的好公司反而不温不火。但把时间拉长来看，A股其实是非常理性和有效的市场，上市公司股价的长期走势，与其业绩高度相关，所谓短期靠势，长期靠质。如今再看，历经时间洗礼，穿越牛熊周期，最终成为百倍以上大牛股的公司，基本都是投资者耳熟能详的优秀公司，包括贵州茅台、五粮液、万科、格力电器、恒瑞医药、云南白药等。贵州茅台2001年上市，净利润从当年的3.28亿增长到2019年的412亿；格力电器1996年上市，净利润从当年的1.86亿，增长到2019年的246亿。两家著名公司利润增幅都超过100倍，成为股价长期大涨的坚实基础。与之相反，曾经在市场上风光一时的热门题材股，被炒到虚高的市值，最终都是一地鸡毛。以去年退市的乐视网和暴风科技为例，都曾被市场爆炒过，市值最高时分别达到过1700亿和400亿，而最终退市时，不过只剩下了7亿和1亿。长期来看，炒作带来的估值波动，对上市公司市值的影响微乎其微，业绩始终是影响市值的最重要因素。能够长期持续为客户和股东创造价值的公司，终究会受到投资者的认可，认可并坚持这类公司的投资者，也总能赚到超出预期的利润。时间是检验企业价值的唯一标准，价值和理性，其实一直都在，只不过它被深深地埋藏在涨涨跌跌里，被掌握和实践在少数人手中。牛短熊长，是投资者对当前A股的另一大无奈。2000年以来，A股牛市平均持续时间只有20个月，熊市平均持续时间却高达37个月，牛短熊长的迹象异常突出，并被认为是A股难以摆脱的宿命。反观美股市场，从1900以来道指经历了5轮牛熊转换，每轮牛市的平均持续时间高达12年，熊市的持续时间只有2年，其牛长熊短的特征和A股形成了鲜明对比。这加深了人们对A股赚钱难的印象。导致这一现象的，是双方在单边牛市时的不同表现。在近20年的三轮牛市周期中，上证综指复合年化涨幅分别为112%、142%和70%，平均年化涨幅高达108%。与之对应，美股道指在牛市的年化涨幅只有20%左右。牛市短期暴涨，必然造成估值畸高，最终只能通过漫长的下跌来消化估值泡沫，牛市涨幅温和，再加业绩消化与支撑，自然可以细水长流。深究A股和美股牛熊周期的差异，根源在于投资者结构和上市公司盈利结构。美股投资者以机构为主，利润来源以消费和科技等弱周期行业为主，这种市场环境使美股估值相对稳定、利润稳定增长，从而具备长牛的基础。而A股投资者以散户为主，利润来源以强周期行业为主，估值和利润自然缺乏稳定性，使A股也难以走出长牛行情。但现在，A股的市场环境，已在向美股等成熟市场靠拢。投资机构占比越来越高。2015年以来，机构投资者在自由流通市值中的占比每年增长超过2%并且有加速迹象。盈利结构中，随着近年来消费和科技公司IPO数量的大幅增长，A股中弱周期行业的市值和利润占比也越来越高。这些变化，正在为A股的长牛行情奠定基础，即便今年以来市场突然由热转寒，A股仍将真正迎来长期慢牛行情，牛短熊长的宿命终将被打破。但这并不意味着，普通投资者就一定能赚到钱。人生要成功，投资要获利，认知能力很重要。在一些人眼中，股市是混沌的，涨跌完全是随机产生，背后没有任何规律可循，炒股就是碰运气；在另一些人看来，股市是线性的，涨的时候似乎一直会涨，跌的时候似乎一直会跌，永远不会有周期的循环。认知的价值，在于找到混沌中相对确定的规律，在于理解起伏中的周期更替，从而提升把握机会和规避风险的能力，进而提高成功和获利的概率。但是有认知能力是远远不够的，更重要的是知行合一。如果行动与实践中，总是与自己的理性认知背道而驰，就算认知得很准，也不一定真正能在股市赚钱。最重要的是，克服自身性格的缺陷和人性共同的弱点。只有控制情绪和欲望，克制暴富的幻想，坚持长期主义，相信常识和时间的力量，相信自己所相信的，才能把相信变成现实。不可或缺的，当然还有国运的恩泽。巴菲特说，“我的人生，很大程度上受益于‘子宫红利’。有幸作为白人出生在国力和经济蒸蒸日上的美国，是我投资成功的主要原因。”中国股民其实也是幸运的，过去几十年，中国经济从几乎一穷二白开始追赶，给资本市场提供了巨大的机会。未来30年，中国在百年未有之大变局的更大发展，则会提供更多最大的机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}