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2021-03-20

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What will be the end of the U.S. flood release and its impact on China

本周中泰证券研究所总量团队的周末讨论会的主题是美国1.9万亿美元补助计划实施，及之后可能推出的2万亿美元基建投资计划将对美国经济带来怎样的影响；在全球通胀走高及美债收益率上行趋势下，中国经济将受到怎样

What will be the end of the U.S. flood release and its impact on China

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":350415365,"tweetId":"350415365","gmtCreate":1616251471557,"gmtModify":1704792485383,"author":{"id":3569136797192778,"idStr":"3569136797192778","authorId":3569136797192778,"authorIdStr":"3569136797192778","name":"Enzo55","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d32856a5757991e1d77b6d1b7091a93","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hahah</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hahah</body></html>","text":"Hahah","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350415365","repostId":2120482291,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120482291","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1616229167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120482291?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-20 16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will be the end of the U.S. flood release and its impact on China","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120482291","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"本周中泰证券研究所总量团队的周末讨论会的主题是美国1.9万亿美元补助计划实施，及之后可能推出的2万亿美元基建投资计划将对美国经济带来怎样的影响；在全球通胀走高及美债收益率上行趋势下，中国经济将受到怎样","content":"This week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>The theme of the weekend discussion of the Institute's total team is the implementation of the US $1.9 trillion subsidy plan and the possible US $2 trillion infrastructure investment plan will affect the US economy; How will China's economy be affected by higher global inflation and upward trend in U.S. bond yields. There are many major events this week: U.S. bond yields are still rising, crude oil prices have plummeted in a single day, the high-level strategic dialogue between China and the United States is not smooth, and many problems have been exposed, which have brought uncertainty to the global and Chinese economies this year. Some belong to gray rhinos. Will there be black swans?At the discussion, everyone agreed that we should not expect too much from Biden's series of stimulus plans. After all, the distortion of the U.S. economic structure has been formed for a long time. Short-term subsidies for low-income groups are conducive to promoting consumption, but they cannot solve the problem of the gap between the rich and the poor. The problem of excessive growth will also bring inflationary pressures and constraints on stimulus policies.Everyone agrees that the main factor for the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates is economic recovery rather than inflation. However, as the pace of economic recovery slows down and inflationary pressures increase, the stock market will enter a period of correction, and precious metals, as safe-haven products, may have room for growth. However, US Treasury yields is unlikely to continue to rise, because the U.S. economy will still be weak in the future. In addition, the Federal Reserve can adopt extended SLR exemption policies, operation distortion (OT) and yield curve control (YCC), etc., to form a certain degree of constraint on the upward trend of U.S. bond yields.In addition, Chen Long believes that changes in U.S. bond yields have little impact on the valuation level of U.S. stocks. It is also generally believed that rising U.S. bond yields or inflation will not induce a plunge in the U.S. stock market or other systemic financial risks in the short term (within one year). As for the impact on China's economy or capital market, it is mainly at the psychological level, and the actual impact is not great.Shouldn't expect too much from Biden's stimulus planChen Xing, chief of Zhongtai Macro, believes that: The recovery of the U.S. economy mainly depends on the service industry, and the stimulus policy is a bit scratching the surface of the service industry.First of all, the economic situation of the United States depends on the service industry, and the epidemic, not the stimulus, is the key to restricting the recovery of the service industry.The U.S. economy is structured with 70% of its GDP from services, and COVID-19 pandemic has a greater impact on the service industry. The current U.S. commodity consumption has already exceeded the growth rate before the epidemic, but the recovery progress of service consumption is obviously slow, especially in transportation, accommodation, catering and entertainment, which are more affected by the epidemic. The industry is the main drag.In fact, the recovery of the service industry does not depend on the strength of the stimulus policy. The key lies in the lifting of the economic constraints imposed by the epidemic. Even after the economy is completely liberalized, the recovery of service consumption will not happen overnight. In the case of high growth rate of commodity consumption and saturation, this 1.9 trillion stimulus may have a certain proportion of funds flowing into the investment field. According to a survey by Mizuho Securities, about 40% of the respondents said that they will invest a certain proportion of the funds received directly in stocks and Bitcoin. Secondly, the U.S. infrastructure plan is different from the 1.9 trillion stimulus plan. It is not something that can be completed in the short term, so it must be viewed from a medium-and long-term perspective. On the one hand, corresponding to the 2 trillion infrastructure plan, the Biden administration also has a tax increase plan. He once said that anyone with an annual income of more than $400,000 will face tax increases.Large businesses may also face more tax payments。 Therefore, from a medium and long-term perspective, Biden's policies do not blindly stimulate the economy, but also consider the issue of fiscal balance; On the other hand, a large proportion of infrastructure plans are expected to be concentrated in the field of new energy. Currently, the world has also reached a consensus on carbon neutrality. When the United States promotes new energy while considering fiscal balance, it is likely to pass on costs to the world. For example, considering imposing carbon tariffs like Europe has a potential adverse impact on the trade environment.Zhongtai Strategist Xu ChiIt is believed that Biden's infrastructure plan has the inevitability and complexity of its implementation. First of all, it is historically \"inevitable\" that the Biden administration will continue to launch new infrastructure and fiscal stimulus plans in the next two years: 1) The inevitable historical law of the \"one-party dominance\" period in the United States in the past century; 2) The disrepair of U.S. infrastructure has become the most significant \"shortcoming\" of the U.S. economy. Most U.S. roads and power grids are in urgent need of replacement for more than 25 years. Every American's disposable income decreases by 3,400 dollars every year due to imperfect infrastructure; 3) The split between Trump and the Republican establishment and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control have brought Biden's approval rate close to 60%.Secondly, the implementation process of Biden's infrastructure plan this year will be \"full of twists and turns\": 1) The \"reconciliation process\" to bypass the obstacles of the Senate Republican Party through a simple majority of \"51: 50\" has been exhausted this year, and it needs to wait until October this year at the earliest, that is, it can't restart until the beginning of the new fiscal year; 2) Considering that some Democratic centrist senators have made it clear that \"the follow-up fiscal plan will be consistent with the Republican position\", even if a simple majority \"reconciliation process\" is used, the implementation process of the follow-up infrastructure plan will be significantly difficult than before.What impact will this have on the market? Xu Chi believes that, on the one hand,The prospect of \"inevitability\" of Biden's infrastructure plan will strengthen the main line of \"reflation\" deal。 As the law of global asset price performance during the \"one-party dominance\" period in the past century shows: after the United States realized the \"one-party dominance\", the administrative efficiency improved, and the so-called \"third monetary policy\" (MP3) mentioned by Dalio: fiscal monetization, that is, the channel for funds to directly enter the real economy after the Fed expanded its balance sheet is activated. This will continue to strengthen the short-term recovery expectation of the U.S. economy and the rebound of the long-term natural growth rate. Therefore, crude oil and interest rates are rising. However, with the economic recovery and rising interest rates, the overall risk of U.S. stocks is not great, and it is still showing a volatile upward trend.It should be noted that, unlike the widespread concern in the domestic market, the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet will bring about rapid depreciation of the US Dollar Index, and make the Fed face the dilemma of \"protecting the US dollar\" or \"protecting US stocks\", resulting in systemic risks: Historically, if the funds generated after the expansion of the balance sheet can enter the real economy, on the one hand, the expansion of the balance sheet will bring depreciation pressure to the US dollar, on the other hand, the prospect of economic recovery will support the the US Dollar Index. The result of the two forces canceling each other is often a moderate and slight appreciation of the US Dollar Index.On the other hand, the complexity of the implementation of Biden's infrastructure plan will slow down the subsequent increase in the scale of new bond issuances.This will slow down the upward slope of U.S. real interest rates, which will also reduce the possibility of systemic risks。 Therefore, under the inevitability of the prospect of Biden's infrastructure plan and the complexity of its implementation, structural switching rather than systemic risks will be the main line of subsequent US stocks and global capital markets: Dow Jones blue chips related to economic recovery will replace the high-valued Nasdaq as the new upward momentum; The same is true for A-shares. With the strengthening of global recovery expectations, the market may be close to the bottom range of adjustment. Exports and low-valuation blue chips will replace high-valuation DCF \"grouping\" as the new main line of the market.Compared with the caution of other analysts, Tang Jun, chief analyst of Zhongtai Financial Engineering, is more optimistic. He believes that the U.S. infrastructure stimulus plan and rescue policies may make the economic recovery and inflation after the epidemic exceed expectations.His reason is that, unlike the government after the 2008 financial crisis, which mainly rescued large financial institutions and enterprises, the U.S. government's rescue policy after COVID-19 pandemic is mainly to send money directly to residents, which is more conducive to the rapid economic recovery after the epidemic. beneficial. In the crisis mode, the effect of fiscal stimulus is more immediate than that of monetary easing. This is because under extremely pessimistic expectations, even if monetary easing is extreme (such as the benchmark interest rate drops to negative), financial institutions are still reluctant to lend, and residents and enterprises are reluctant to increase leverage and spend money. However, fiscal stimulus is that the government directly increases leverage and spends money, and the effect is immediate.Compared with rescuing large enterprises, direct financial money to residents has a more obvious effect on post-crisis economic recovery and rising inflation.Because the distribution of money directly to residents is fairer, and low-income groups have a higher tendency to consume after receiving the money。 Looking at the data of total personal income and consumer expenditure in the United States, we can see that after the 2008 financial crisis, residents' income and expenditure both declined significantly, the difference between income and expenditure also decreased, and the subsequent recovery speed was relatively slow. However, after this COVID-19 pandemic, benefiting from large relief subsidies and reduced consumption under epidemic prevention measures, the total personal income of American residents has generally increased, while consumer expenditures have decreased. The difference between the two has widened significantly, which means that after the epidemic prevention is relaxed, residents' willingness and ability to consume may exceed expectations.The implementation speed of the infrastructure stimulus plan may be relatively slow, which is determined by the decision-making mechanism and efficiency of the United States. However, even if it is only partially implemented, the rebound in household consumption after the epidemic will exceed expectations, and the recovery and inflation of the U.S. economy may exceed expectations..Li XunleiIt is believed that the essence of the United States' use of MMT to stimulate the economy is to use the international status of the US dollar to levy \"seigniorage\" on the whole world. As the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves and a large foreign trade surplus, China will definitely make great \"contributions\" to the economic recovery of the United States. Moreover, as long as the international status of the US dollar is not fundamentally shaken and the US dollar does not depreciate significantly, this mode of high government leverage and large currency release will continue. The traditional so-called 3% warning line theory of fiscal deficit ratio has been easily broken through.If this tried-and-true model continues and other countries will follow suit, it will eventually lead to high global debt and \"competitive devaluation\" of currencies of major economies, which will lead to the spread of global inflation-of course, this is just a speculation, but judging from the case of Bitcoin's continuous rise, it is not difficult to find that people are already very worried about currency flooding. Bitcoin's skyrocketing cannot be compared to the tulips in the Netherlands.Bitcoin has become an \"international currency\" precisely under the flood of currency bubbles, which is used to measure the degree of global currency bubbles.Upside for U.S. bond yields and its impact on ChinaZhongtai Fixed Income Analyst Xiao YuIt is believed that various unexpected factors driving U.S. bond yields upward in the short term have been fully released, and the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged but the speed may slow down. Based on the three-factor analysis framework mentioned earlier, on the premise that the Federal Reserve does not raise policy interest rates or cut QE, it is difficult for the 10Y US Treasury yields to significantly exceed 2% during the year to be maintained.The fact that the Federal Reserve does not intervene in the bond market at this stage does not mean that it does not care about the impact of the continued surge in U.S. bond yields. A sharp rise in US Treasury yields will increase the pressure on debt interest payments, which is not conducive to the implementation of the Biden administration's US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and subsequent large-scale infrastructure plans. Under the dual goals of balancing inflation and employment, the U.S. labor market is still far from fully recovering, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve adopting Operation Distortion (OT) and other measures to suppress long-term bond interest rates has increased. Therefore, the next policy observation window may be 1.8%-1.9%. First, the yield of U.S. bonds remained at this level before the outbreak, and second, the yield was around 1.9% when the Federal Reserve implemented the operation distortion policy in September 2011.Chen XingIt is believed that the Fed's policy space still exists. The extended SLR exemption policy, Operation Twist (OT) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) can all restrict the upward trend of U.S. bond yields to a certain extent. If the risks caused by financial market turmoil are too large, the Fed is currently not helpless.As for the impact on China,Xiao YuIt is emphasized that in the current round of gradual economic and inflation recovery, China is significantly ahead of the United States in terms of monetary policy adjustments and interest rate trends. From the perspective of short-term interest rates, the DR007 center has rebounded from a low of 1.5% in April last year to around 2.2%, while the target range of US Federal Funds rate remains between 0 and 0.25%. From the perspective of long-term interest rates, my country's 10-year bond yield has also risen from 2.48% to about 3.25% at present, while the 10-year U.S. bond only bottomed out in August last year and is currently only 1.7%. Therefore, the rise in U.S. bond yields and possible policy adjustments such as QE reduction and rate hike in the future will not trigger the follow-up rate hike of the People's Bank of China like in 2017.Domestic monetary policy and interest rate trends will still be \"dominated by me\"。Tang JunIt is believed that inflation expectations reflected by U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates and real interest rates have exceeded pre-epidemic levels, which is reasonable to some extent, because the rebound in consumption after the epidemic may exceed expectations. However, considering that the United States has experienced a long period of low interest rate environment in the past, many companies in the United States have increased leverage (asset-liability ratio) to a record high, and a lot of debt financing is used to buy back their own stocks. Although this is a market-oriented behavior under the maximization of shareholder interests (especially short-term interests), high leverage makes American companies highly dependent on the low interest rate environment. Therefore,US Treasury yields may rise in the short term, but the probability of continuing to rise in the medium and long term is unlikely.Intuitively, the current U.S. Treasury Bond yield has returned to pre-epidemic levels, and inflation expectations have exceeded pre-epidemic levels. However, the PE of the Nasdaq 100 Index is still nearly 50% higher than before the epidemic (the PE in 2019 is about 25 times, currently about 38 times). Sought after under ultra-low interest rates and risk aversion during the epidemicThere may be obvious pressure for the valuation of \"core assets\" to return to normal.Tang Jun believes that the interest rate gap between China and the United States is still high.The impact of US Treasury yields's upward trend on my country's economy and stock market is relatively limited。 After this wave of upward movement in US Treasury yields, the interest rate differential between China and the United States has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level and is at a historical high since 2012 (before the epidemic in 2020). So at present,The pressure of capital outflows caused by the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the United States is relatively small, the real impact of rising US Treasury yields on domestic capital markets is relatively limited, but it may have some emotional impact. Due to the positive feedback from the hot fundraising in Public Offering of Fund before the Spring Festival, A-shares are in a short-term \"overbought\" state, and the market itself needs to adjust and digest. The impact of overseas market fluctuations on market sentiment may still cause large fluctuations in A-shares.Li XunleiIt is believed that the rise in US Treasury yields more reflects people's dual expectations for economic recovery and inflation. For example, the recent Brazilian rate hike of 75 basis points, and Russian and Norwegian rate hike are also brewing. This is actually the negative effect of the consequences of this round of global currency release, thus bringing hidden worries to economic recovery. Under such a background, it is not easy for China to be immune. The capital market can best reflect the consensus of investors. Why was the capital market optimistic when the global epidemic was so serious last year, but when the epidemic improved and vaccines were rapidly promoted, it became a little pessimistic?The \"prescription\" of the core problem is wrong-treating the symptoms but not the root cause, because the release of water only alleviated the liquidity crisis, and only prevented the income of the unemployed from dropping significantly, but it did not fundamentally change the structural problems that existed before the epidemic.Will the release of water lead to a financial crisis?Zhongtai Strategist Wang ShijinIt is believed that the recent performance of all assets has not been good, and the market has obviously entered a wait-and-see and hedging state. It has been trading around U.S. debt all week, switching styles back and forth, which is caused by the interweaving of various factors.First of all, from the perspective of the time window, March 19 is the Four Witches Day of U.S. stocks, and on March 22, U.S. bonds and crude oil futures are also facing delivery. The game attributes are enhanced, and market fluctuations will naturally amplify. In addition, at the end of the month<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The system's SLR exemption has expired, and primary dealers have significantly reduced their U.S. bond positions in the past week. There may be US $500-600 billion in Treasury Bond that need to be sold in the future. Neither the Federal Reserve nor the U.S. banking regulatory authorities have made a clear statement on this in the near future. As time approaches,Most markets choose to short U.S. debt and long U.S. dollars to deal with possible uncertainties.Regarding SLR, Congress may not support the continued extension. At the FOMC meeting in March, the Federal Reserve promised to issue a statement on this in the next few days. There may be some technical plans, such as the recent increase in the counterparty limit of overnight reverse repurchase from US $30 billion to US $80 billion, perhaps in preparation for possible liquidity problems in the bond market. Technically, there may be three ways to mitigate, not to roll over but to modify the SLR standard, to distort the operation to sell short and buy long, and to control the yield curve. From a fundamental point of view, judging from the previously disclosed data, the state of economic growth and inflation in the United States is good. The disadvantage is that the growth rate of social financing in China is declining, while Europe has once again added interference due to the epidemic and vaccine issues. In addition, inflation expectations continue to strengthen. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve continued the rhetoric of allowing inflation to overshoot moderately. If the AIT rules revised last year are strictly followed, even if the U.S. inflation level reaches 3% during the year, the Federal Reserve may still be inclined to adopt a tolerant attitude. In the short term, inflation expectations are still underperforming nominal interest rates, but as the interference in pricing gradually ends at the end of the month, the rhythm of the two may be reversed.Precious metals should perform next, and the stock market will return to the logic of economic normalization.In terms of futures index structure, A-shares and U.S. stocks have diverged. The discount of CSI 300 futures has expanded significantly, while the structure of S&P 500 futures has performed more calmly.It shows that the A-share market is more pessimistic about the market outlook. The recent state of strong IC and weak IF/IH also shows that institutional group stocks have accelerated their positions, and small and medium-sized market capitalization companies with good moving averages are more favored。 Overall, he believes that most of the short-term interference factors have been digested, and there is no need to worry too much about the follow-up market. At present, the most promising direction is the two main lines of carbon neutrality and the first quarter report.Chen Long, Chief Strategist of ZhongtaiIt is believed that there will be no big risks in the U.S. stock market. Analyzing the problems of U.S. stocks from the determinants of the stock market, it is found that there is a high probability that U.S. stocks will not fall sharply in the short term.First of all, looking back at the trend of U.S. stocks since the bursting of the Internet bubble in U.S. stocks, we find that U.S. stocks represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Index are basically going all the way. First of all, from the rise and fall of the index and the fundamentals of listed companies in the US stock market. We calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient and the data showed that,The Dow Jones Index has a high 87% correlation with Dow Jones constituent EPS, and the Nasdaq Index has a high 86% correlation with Nasdaq constituent EPS。 Secondly, from the perspective of the rise and fall of the index and the dynamic PE of listed companies in the US stock market, the correlation between the Dow Jones Index and the dynamic PE of its constituent stocks is 60%, and the correlation between the Nasdaq Index and the dynamic PE of its constituent stocks is 30%. The correlation is worse than that of the performance of constituent stocks. In other words, the trend of U.S. stocks is highly correlated with the performance trend of U.S. listed companies. Reason whyThe U.S. stock market's emergence from the long-term bullish pattern is closely related to the long-term bullish performance of U.S. listed companies.Secondly, assume that the 10Y U.S. bond yield is the risk-free rate of return of U.S. stocks. We still examine the relationship between the dynamic PE of U.S. stocks and the yield of 10Y U.S. bonds by calculating the correlation coefficient. The data shows that the correlation between Dow Jones dynamic PE and 10Y U.S. bonds is-24.5%, and the correlation between Nasdaq dynamic PE and 10Y U.S. bonds is-20%, but the correlation between the two has increased to about-40% in the past ten years. We can think of it this way,The correlation between PE of U.S. stocks and risk-free interest rates is very weak, although the negative correlation between U.S. stock valuations and risk-free interest rates is increasing, but still belongs to a weak correlation. Instead ofThe market risk appetite of U.S. stocks is highly correlated.The P/E of the US Dow Jones Index is weakly correlated with the 10-year Treasury Bond yield<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/895503c5bc0b077906c82d535ec38997\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"317\">Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteThird, since the bursting of the Internet bubble, the U.S. stock market has only undergone three relatively large adjustments, mainly in the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the Sino-U.S. friction in 2018 and the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Looking at the EPS, dynamic PE and 10Y U.S. bond yields of constituent stocks, it is found that the decline in U.S. stocks caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is related to the performance of listed companies and market risk appetite. The Sino-US friction in 2018 and the decline in U.S. stocks brought about by COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 can almost entirely be explained by risk appetite.Fourth, this round of rising U.S. bond yields fully reflects the expectation of U.S. economic recovery. U.S. fiscal stimulus is superimposed on monetary easing.Fundamental factors still play a decisive role in stocks。 Therefore, even if the rise in U.S. bond yields brings about a slight decline in market risk appetite, the improvement of fundamentals will continue to push the stock market yield upward, and there is a high probability that there will be no big problems in the U.S. stock market in the short term.Li XunleiIt is believed that the global response to the epidemic and various economic diseases has adopted \"painless therapy\" to make up for short-term losses at the expense of long-term interests. In the era of big data, the level and ability of risk management and control have been greatly improved. Too many counter-cycles lead to no cycles. Although the crisis will not happen in the foreseeable years, the general trend of long-term economic recession is gradually becoming clear. As everyone expected, China's economy has dropped from high growth to medium-speed growth, from overall growth to structural growth, thus entering the era of differentiation. However, in the wrestling of global economies, China's competitiveness is on the rise, so we should take advantage of the situation to increase the intensity and speed of RMB internationalization, otherwise we will have to bear the pressure of US dollar \"arbitrage\".","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will be the end of the U.S. flood release and its impact on China</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will be the end of the U.S. flood release and its impact on China\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n李迅雷金融与投资 \n2021-03-20 16:32\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>The theme of the weekend discussion of the Institute's total team is the implementation of the US $1.9 trillion subsidy plan and the possible US $2 trillion infrastructure investment plan will affect the US economy; How will China's economy be affected by higher global inflation and upward trend in U.S. bond yields. There are many major events this week: U.S. bond yields are still rising, crude oil prices have plummeted in a single day, the high-level strategic dialogue between China and the United States is not smooth, and many problems have been exposed, which have brought uncertainty to the global and Chinese economies this year. Some belong to gray rhinos. Will there be black swans?At the discussion, everyone agreed that we should not expect too much from Biden's series of stimulus plans. After all, the distortion of the U.S. economic structure has been formed for a long time. Short-term subsidies for low-income groups are conducive to promoting consumption, but they cannot solve the problem of the gap between the rich and the poor. The problem of excessive growth will also bring inflationary pressures and constraints on stimulus policies.Everyone agrees that the main factor for the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates is economic recovery rather than inflation. However, as the pace of economic recovery slows down and inflationary pressures increase, the stock market will enter a period of correction, and precious metals, as safe-haven products, may have room for growth. However, US Treasury yields is unlikely to continue to rise, because the U.S. economy will still be weak in the future. In addition, the Federal Reserve can adopt extended SLR exemption policies, operation distortion (OT) and yield curve control (YCC), etc., to form a certain degree of constraint on the upward trend of U.S. bond yields.In addition, Chen Long believes that changes in U.S. bond yields have little impact on the valuation level of U.S. stocks. It is also generally believed that rising U.S. bond yields or inflation will not induce a plunge in the U.S. stock market or other systemic financial risks in the short term (within one year). As for the impact on China's economy or capital market, it is mainly at the psychological level, and the actual impact is not great.Shouldn't expect too much from Biden's stimulus planChen Xing, chief of Zhongtai Macro, believes that: The recovery of the U.S. economy mainly depends on the service industry, and the stimulus policy is a bit scratching the surface of the service industry.First of all, the economic situation of the United States depends on the service industry, and the epidemic, not the stimulus, is the key to restricting the recovery of the service industry.The U.S. economy is structured with 70% of its GDP from services, and COVID-19 pandemic has a greater impact on the service industry. The current U.S. commodity consumption has already exceeded the growth rate before the epidemic, but the recovery progress of service consumption is obviously slow, especially in transportation, accommodation, catering and entertainment, which are more affected by the epidemic. The industry is the main drag.In fact, the recovery of the service industry does not depend on the strength of the stimulus policy. The key lies in the lifting of the economic constraints imposed by the epidemic. Even after the economy is completely liberalized, the recovery of service consumption will not happen overnight. In the case of high growth rate of commodity consumption and saturation, this 1.9 trillion stimulus may have a certain proportion of funds flowing into the investment field. According to a survey by Mizuho Securities, about 40% of the respondents said that they will invest a certain proportion of the funds received directly in stocks and Bitcoin. Secondly, the U.S. infrastructure plan is different from the 1.9 trillion stimulus plan. It is not something that can be completed in the short term, so it must be viewed from a medium-and long-term perspective. On the one hand, corresponding to the 2 trillion infrastructure plan, the Biden administration also has a tax increase plan. He once said that anyone with an annual income of more than $400,000 will face tax increases.Large businesses may also face more tax payments。 Therefore, from a medium and long-term perspective, Biden's policies do not blindly stimulate the economy, but also consider the issue of fiscal balance; On the other hand, a large proportion of infrastructure plans are expected to be concentrated in the field of new energy. Currently, the world has also reached a consensus on carbon neutrality. When the United States promotes new energy while considering fiscal balance, it is likely to pass on costs to the world. For example, considering imposing carbon tariffs like Europe has a potential adverse impact on the trade environment.Zhongtai Strategist Xu ChiIt is believed that Biden's infrastructure plan has the inevitability and complexity of its implementation. First of all, it is historically \"inevitable\" that the Biden administration will continue to launch new infrastructure and fiscal stimulus plans in the next two years: 1) The inevitable historical law of the \"one-party dominance\" period in the United States in the past century; 2) The disrepair of U.S. infrastructure has become the most significant \"shortcoming\" of the U.S. economy. Most U.S. roads and power grids are in urgent need of replacement for more than 25 years. Every American's disposable income decreases by 3,400 dollars every year due to imperfect infrastructure; 3) The split between Trump and the Republican establishment and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control have brought Biden's approval rate close to 60%.Secondly, the implementation process of Biden's infrastructure plan this year will be \"full of twists and turns\": 1) The \"reconciliation process\" to bypass the obstacles of the Senate Republican Party through a simple majority of \"51: 50\" has been exhausted this year, and it needs to wait until October this year at the earliest, that is, it can't restart until the beginning of the new fiscal year; 2) Considering that some Democratic centrist senators have made it clear that \"the follow-up fiscal plan will be consistent with the Republican position\", even if a simple majority \"reconciliation process\" is used, the implementation process of the follow-up infrastructure plan will be significantly difficult than before.What impact will this have on the market? Xu Chi believes that, on the one hand,The prospect of \"inevitability\" of Biden's infrastructure plan will strengthen the main line of \"reflation\" deal。 As the law of global asset price performance during the \"one-party dominance\" period in the past century shows: after the United States realized the \"one-party dominance\", the administrative efficiency improved, and the so-called \"third monetary policy\" (MP3) mentioned by Dalio: fiscal monetization, that is, the channel for funds to directly enter the real economy after the Fed expanded its balance sheet is activated. This will continue to strengthen the short-term recovery expectation of the U.S. economy and the rebound of the long-term natural growth rate. Therefore, crude oil and interest rates are rising. However, with the economic recovery and rising interest rates, the overall risk of U.S. stocks is not great, and it is still showing a volatile upward trend.It should be noted that, unlike the widespread concern in the domestic market, the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet will bring about rapid depreciation of the US Dollar Index, and make the Fed face the dilemma of \"protecting the US dollar\" or \"protecting US stocks\", resulting in systemic risks: Historically, if the funds generated after the expansion of the balance sheet can enter the real economy, on the one hand, the expansion of the balance sheet will bring depreciation pressure to the US dollar, on the other hand, the prospect of economic recovery will support the the US Dollar Index. The result of the two forces canceling each other is often a moderate and slight appreciation of the US Dollar Index.On the other hand, the complexity of the implementation of Biden's infrastructure plan will slow down the subsequent increase in the scale of new bond issuances.This will slow down the upward slope of U.S. real interest rates, which will also reduce the possibility of systemic risks。 Therefore, under the inevitability of the prospect of Biden's infrastructure plan and the complexity of its implementation, structural switching rather than systemic risks will be the main line of subsequent US stocks and global capital markets: Dow Jones blue chips related to economic recovery will replace the high-valued Nasdaq as the new upward momentum; The same is true for A-shares. With the strengthening of global recovery expectations, the market may be close to the bottom range of adjustment. Exports and low-valuation blue chips will replace high-valuation DCF \"grouping\" as the new main line of the market.Compared with the caution of other analysts, Tang Jun, chief analyst of Zhongtai Financial Engineering, is more optimistic. He believes that the U.S. infrastructure stimulus plan and rescue policies may make the economic recovery and inflation after the epidemic exceed expectations.His reason is that, unlike the government after the 2008 financial crisis, which mainly rescued large financial institutions and enterprises, the U.S. government's rescue policy after COVID-19 pandemic is mainly to send money directly to residents, which is more conducive to the rapid economic recovery after the epidemic. beneficial. In the crisis mode, the effect of fiscal stimulus is more immediate than that of monetary easing. This is because under extremely pessimistic expectations, even if monetary easing is extreme (such as the benchmark interest rate drops to negative), financial institutions are still reluctant to lend, and residents and enterprises are reluctant to increase leverage and spend money. However, fiscal stimulus is that the government directly increases leverage and spends money, and the effect is immediate.Compared with rescuing large enterprises, direct financial money to residents has a more obvious effect on post-crisis economic recovery and rising inflation.Because the distribution of money directly to residents is fairer, and low-income groups have a higher tendency to consume after receiving the money。 Looking at the data of total personal income and consumer expenditure in the United States, we can see that after the 2008 financial crisis, residents' income and expenditure both declined significantly, the difference between income and expenditure also decreased, and the subsequent recovery speed was relatively slow. However, after this COVID-19 pandemic, benefiting from large relief subsidies and reduced consumption under epidemic prevention measures, the total personal income of American residents has generally increased, while consumer expenditures have decreased. The difference between the two has widened significantly, which means that after the epidemic prevention is relaxed, residents' willingness and ability to consume may exceed expectations.The implementation speed of the infrastructure stimulus plan may be relatively slow, which is determined by the decision-making mechanism and efficiency of the United States. However, even if it is only partially implemented, the rebound in household consumption after the epidemic will exceed expectations, and the recovery and inflation of the U.S. economy may exceed expectations..Li XunleiIt is believed that the essence of the United States' use of MMT to stimulate the economy is to use the international status of the US dollar to levy \"seigniorage\" on the whole world. As the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves and a large foreign trade surplus, China will definitely make great \"contributions\" to the economic recovery of the United States. Moreover, as long as the international status of the US dollar is not fundamentally shaken and the US dollar does not depreciate significantly, this mode of high government leverage and large currency release will continue. The traditional so-called 3% warning line theory of fiscal deficit ratio has been easily broken through.If this tried-and-true model continues and other countries will follow suit, it will eventually lead to high global debt and \"competitive devaluation\" of currencies of major economies, which will lead to the spread of global inflation-of course, this is just a speculation, but judging from the case of Bitcoin's continuous rise, it is not difficult to find that people are already very worried about currency flooding. Bitcoin's skyrocketing cannot be compared to the tulips in the Netherlands.Bitcoin has become an \"international currency\" precisely under the flood of currency bubbles, which is used to measure the degree of global currency bubbles.Upside for U.S. bond yields and its impact on ChinaZhongtai Fixed Income Analyst Xiao YuIt is believed that various unexpected factors driving U.S. bond yields upward in the short term have been fully released, and the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged but the speed may slow down. Based on the three-factor analysis framework mentioned earlier, on the premise that the Federal Reserve does not raise policy interest rates or cut QE, it is difficult for the 10Y US Treasury yields to significantly exceed 2% during the year to be maintained.The fact that the Federal Reserve does not intervene in the bond market at this stage does not mean that it does not care about the impact of the continued surge in U.S. bond yields. A sharp rise in US Treasury yields will increase the pressure on debt interest payments, which is not conducive to the implementation of the Biden administration's US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and subsequent large-scale infrastructure plans. Under the dual goals of balancing inflation and employment, the U.S. labor market is still far from fully recovering, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve adopting Operation Distortion (OT) and other measures to suppress long-term bond interest rates has increased. Therefore, the next policy observation window may be 1.8%-1.9%. First, the yield of U.S. bonds remained at this level before the outbreak, and second, the yield was around 1.9% when the Federal Reserve implemented the operation distortion policy in September 2011.Chen XingIt is believed that the Fed's policy space still exists. The extended SLR exemption policy, Operation Twist (OT) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) can all restrict the upward trend of U.S. bond yields to a certain extent. If the risks caused by financial market turmoil are too large, the Fed is currently not helpless.As for the impact on China,Xiao YuIt is emphasized that in the current round of gradual economic and inflation recovery, China is significantly ahead of the United States in terms of monetary policy adjustments and interest rate trends. From the perspective of short-term interest rates, the DR007 center has rebounded from a low of 1.5% in April last year to around 2.2%, while the target range of US Federal Funds rate remains between 0 and 0.25%. From the perspective of long-term interest rates, my country's 10-year bond yield has also risen from 2.48% to about 3.25% at present, while the 10-year U.S. bond only bottomed out in August last year and is currently only 1.7%. Therefore, the rise in U.S. bond yields and possible policy adjustments such as QE reduction and rate hike in the future will not trigger the follow-up rate hike of the People's Bank of China like in 2017.Domestic monetary policy and interest rate trends will still be \"dominated by me\"。Tang JunIt is believed that inflation expectations reflected by U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates and real interest rates have exceeded pre-epidemic levels, which is reasonable to some extent, because the rebound in consumption after the epidemic may exceed expectations. However, considering that the United States has experienced a long period of low interest rate environment in the past, many companies in the United States have increased leverage (asset-liability ratio) to a record high, and a lot of debt financing is used to buy back their own stocks. Although this is a market-oriented behavior under the maximization of shareholder interests (especially short-term interests), high leverage makes American companies highly dependent on the low interest rate environment. Therefore,US Treasury yields may rise in the short term, but the probability of continuing to rise in the medium and long term is unlikely.Intuitively, the current U.S. Treasury Bond yield has returned to pre-epidemic levels, and inflation expectations have exceeded pre-epidemic levels. However, the PE of the Nasdaq 100 Index is still nearly 50% higher than before the epidemic (the PE in 2019 is about 25 times, currently about 38 times). Sought after under ultra-low interest rates and risk aversion during the epidemicThere may be obvious pressure for the valuation of \"core assets\" to return to normal.Tang Jun believes that the interest rate gap between China and the United States is still high.The impact of US Treasury yields's upward trend on my country's economy and stock market is relatively limited。 After this wave of upward movement in US Treasury yields, the interest rate differential between China and the United States has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level and is at a historical high since 2012 (before the epidemic in 2020). So at present,The pressure of capital outflows caused by the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the United States is relatively small, the real impact of rising US Treasury yields on domestic capital markets is relatively limited, but it may have some emotional impact. Due to the positive feedback from the hot fundraising in Public Offering of Fund before the Spring Festival, A-shares are in a short-term \"overbought\" state, and the market itself needs to adjust and digest. The impact of overseas market fluctuations on market sentiment may still cause large fluctuations in A-shares.Li XunleiIt is believed that the rise in US Treasury yields more reflects people's dual expectations for economic recovery and inflation. For example, the recent Brazilian rate hike of 75 basis points, and Russian and Norwegian rate hike are also brewing. This is actually the negative effect of the consequences of this round of global currency release, thus bringing hidden worries to economic recovery. Under such a background, it is not easy for China to be immune. The capital market can best reflect the consensus of investors. Why was the capital market optimistic when the global epidemic was so serious last year, but when the epidemic improved and vaccines were rapidly promoted, it became a little pessimistic?The \"prescription\" of the core problem is wrong-treating the symptoms but not the root cause, because the release of water only alleviated the liquidity crisis, and only prevented the income of the unemployed from dropping significantly, but it did not fundamentally change the structural problems that existed before the epidemic.Will the release of water lead to a financial crisis?Zhongtai Strategist Wang ShijinIt is believed that the recent performance of all assets has not been good, and the market has obviously entered a wait-and-see and hedging state. It has been trading around U.S. debt all week, switching styles back and forth, which is caused by the interweaving of various factors.First of all, from the perspective of the time window, March 19 is the Four Witches Day of U.S. stocks, and on March 22, U.S. bonds and crude oil futures are also facing delivery. The game attributes are enhanced, and market fluctuations will naturally amplify. In addition, at the end of the month<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The system's SLR exemption has expired, and primary dealers have significantly reduced their U.S. bond positions in the past week. There may be US $500-600 billion in Treasury Bond that need to be sold in the future. Neither the Federal Reserve nor the U.S. banking regulatory authorities have made a clear statement on this in the near future. As time approaches,Most markets choose to short U.S. debt and long U.S. dollars to deal with possible uncertainties.Regarding SLR, Congress may not support the continued extension. At the FOMC meeting in March, the Federal Reserve promised to issue a statement on this in the next few days. There may be some technical plans, such as the recent increase in the counterparty limit of overnight reverse repurchase from US $30 billion to US $80 billion, perhaps in preparation for possible liquidity problems in the bond market. Technically, there may be three ways to mitigate, not to roll over but to modify the SLR standard, to distort the operation to sell short and buy long, and to control the yield curve. From a fundamental point of view, judging from the previously disclosed data, the state of economic growth and inflation in the United States is good. The disadvantage is that the growth rate of social financing in China is declining, while Europe has once again added interference due to the epidemic and vaccine issues. In addition, inflation expectations continue to strengthen. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve continued the rhetoric of allowing inflation to overshoot moderately. If the AIT rules revised last year are strictly followed, even if the U.S. inflation level reaches 3% during the year, the Federal Reserve may still be inclined to adopt a tolerant attitude. In the short term, inflation expectations are still underperforming nominal interest rates, but as the interference in pricing gradually ends at the end of the month, the rhythm of the two may be reversed.Precious metals should perform next, and the stock market will return to the logic of economic normalization.In terms of futures index structure, A-shares and U.S. stocks have diverged. The discount of CSI 300 futures has expanded significantly, while the structure of S&P 500 futures has performed more calmly.It shows that the A-share market is more pessimistic about the market outlook. The recent state of strong IC and weak IF/IH also shows that institutional group stocks have accelerated their positions, and small and medium-sized market capitalization companies with good moving averages are more favored。 Overall, he believes that most of the short-term interference factors have been digested, and there is no need to worry too much about the follow-up market. At present, the most promising direction is the two main lines of carbon neutrality and the first quarter report.Chen Long, Chief Strategist of ZhongtaiIt is believed that there will be no big risks in the U.S. stock market. Analyzing the problems of U.S. stocks from the determinants of the stock market, it is found that there is a high probability that U.S. stocks will not fall sharply in the short term.First of all, looking back at the trend of U.S. stocks since the bursting of the Internet bubble in U.S. stocks, we find that U.S. stocks represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Index are basically going all the way. First of all, from the rise and fall of the index and the fundamentals of listed companies in the US stock market. We calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient and the data showed that,The Dow Jones Index has a high 87% correlation with Dow Jones constituent EPS, and the Nasdaq Index has a high 86% correlation with Nasdaq constituent EPS。 Secondly, from the perspective of the rise and fall of the index and the dynamic PE of listed companies in the US stock market, the correlation between the Dow Jones Index and the dynamic PE of its constituent stocks is 60%, and the correlation between the Nasdaq Index and the dynamic PE of its constituent stocks is 30%. The correlation is worse than that of the performance of constituent stocks. In other words, the trend of U.S. stocks is highly correlated with the performance trend of U.S. listed companies. Reason whyThe U.S. stock market's emergence from the long-term bullish pattern is closely related to the long-term bullish performance of U.S. listed companies.Secondly, assume that the 10Y U.S. bond yield is the risk-free rate of return of U.S. stocks. We still examine the relationship between the dynamic PE of U.S. stocks and the yield of 10Y U.S. bonds by calculating the correlation coefficient. The data shows that the correlation between Dow Jones dynamic PE and 10Y U.S. bonds is-24.5%, and the correlation between Nasdaq dynamic PE and 10Y U.S. bonds is-20%, but the correlation between the two has increased to about-40% in the past ten years. We can think of it this way,The correlation between PE of U.S. stocks and risk-free interest rates is very weak, although the negative correlation between U.S. stock valuations and risk-free interest rates is increasing, but still belongs to a weak correlation. Instead ofThe market risk appetite of U.S. stocks is highly correlated.The P/E of the US Dow Jones Index is weakly correlated with the 10-year Treasury Bond yield<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/895503c5bc0b077906c82d535ec38997\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"317\">Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteThird, since the bursting of the Internet bubble, the U.S. stock market has only undergone three relatively large adjustments, mainly in the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the Sino-U.S. friction in 2018 and the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Looking at the EPS, dynamic PE and 10Y U.S. bond yields of constituent stocks, it is found that the decline in U.S. stocks caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is related to the performance of listed companies and market risk appetite. The Sino-US friction in 2018 and the decline in U.S. stocks brought about by COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 can almost entirely be explained by risk appetite.Fourth, this round of rising U.S. bond yields fully reflects the expectation of U.S. economic recovery. U.S. fiscal stimulus is superimposed on monetary easing.Fundamental factors still play a decisive role in stocks。 Therefore, even if the rise in U.S. bond yields brings about a slight decline in market risk appetite, the improvement of fundamentals will continue to push the stock market yield upward, and there is a high probability that there will be no big problems in the U.S. stock market in the short term.Li XunleiIt is believed that the global response to the epidemic and various economic diseases has adopted \"painless therapy\" to make up for short-term losses at the expense of long-term interests. In the era of big data, the level and ability of risk management and control have been greatly improved. Too many counter-cycles lead to no cycles. Although the crisis will not happen in the foreseeable years, the general trend of long-term economic recession is gradually becoming clear. As everyone expected, China's economy has dropped from high growth to medium-speed growth, from overall growth to structural growth, thus entering the era of differentiation. However, in the wrestling of global economies, China's competitiveness is on the rise, so we should take advantage of the situation to increase the intensity and speed of RMB internationalization, otherwise we will have to bear the pressure of US dollar \"arbitrage\".\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90cd8195dc8f4e658bd142e594b11ae8","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","000001.SH":"上证指数","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120482291","content_text":"本周中泰证券研究所总量团队的周末讨论会的主题是美国1.9万亿美元补助计划实施，及之后可能推出的2万亿美元基建投资计划将对美国经济带来怎样的影响；在全球通胀走高及美债收益率上行趋势下，中国经济将受到怎样影响。本周重大事件颇多：美债收益率仍在上行，原油价格出现单日暴跌，中美高层战略对话不太顺畅，诸多问题暴露给今年全球及中国经济都带来了不确定性。有些属于灰犀牛，会否出现黑天鹅呢？\n讨论会上大家比较一致的观点是：不应对拜登的一系列刺激计划期望过高，毕竟美国经济结构的扭曲是长期形成的，短期补贴低收入阶层有利于促进消费，但不能解决贫富差距过大问题，同时还会带来通胀压力，给刺激政策带来掣肘。\n大家一致认为，美国国债利率走高主要因素是经济复苏而非通胀，但随着经济复苏步伐的放缓和通胀压力的加大，股市会进入修整期，作为避险品种的贵金属则可能有上升空间。但是，美债利率不大会持续走高，因为未来美国经济依然还是疲软的。此外，美联储可以采取延期SLR豁免政策、扭曲操作（OT）和收益率曲线控制（YCC）等，对美债收益率上行形成一定程度的约束。\n此外，陈龙认为美债收益率变化对美股的估值水平影响并不大，大家也普遍认为美债收益率上升或通胀从短期（一年内）看不会诱发美国股市暴跌或出现其他系统性金融风险。至于对中国经济或资本市场的影响，主要在心理层面，实质影响并不算大。\n不应对拜登刺激计划期望过高\n中泰宏观首席陈兴认为：美国经济复苏主要靠服务业，刺激政策对服务业有点隔靴搔痒。\n首先，美国经济状况取决于服务业，疫情而并非刺激力度才是制约服务业恢复的关键。美国经济结构之中70%的GDP来自于服务业，而新冠疫情对于服务业的冲击更大，当前美国商品消费早已经突破了疫情前的增速水平，但服务消费恢复进度明显偏慢，特别是受疫情影响更大的交运、住宿餐饮和娱乐行业是主要拖累。\n事实上，服务业的恢复并不取决于刺激政策力度多大，关键在于疫情对于经济制约的解除，而即便在经济完全放开之后，服务消费的恢复也并不是一蹴而就的事情。在商品消费增速高企、趋于饱和的情况下，这一次的1.9万亿刺激或将有一定比例的资金流入投资领域，瑞穗证券的调查显示，有40%左右的受访者表示，他们会将直接收到资金的一定比例投资于股票和比特币。其次，美国的基建计划和1.9万亿的刺激计划不同，并不是短期能够完成的事情，因此要放在中长期的视角来看。一方面，对应着2万亿的基建计划，拜登政府还有加税计划，他曾表示任何年收入超过40万美元的人都将面临增税，大型企业也可能面临着更多的纳税额。所以中长期视角来看，拜登政策对于经济并不是一味地刺激，也要考虑财政平衡的问题；另一方面，基建计划预计将有很大比例集中在新能源领域，当前全球也已达成碳中和的共识，在美国推动新能源同时考虑财政平衡的情况下，很可能会向全球转嫁成本，比如像欧洲一样考虑征收碳关税，对贸易环境有潜在的不利影响。\n中泰策略分析师徐驰认为，拜登基建计划存在实施的必然性与落地的复杂性。首先，未来两年拜登政府不断推出新的基建和财政刺激计划具有历史“必然性”：1）美国过去百年“一党独大”时期的必然历史规律；2）美国基建的年久失修已成为美国经济最显著的“短板”，美国公路、电网等多数年限已超过25年急需更换，每一个美国人每年因为基础设施的不完善，可支配收入减少3400美元；3）特朗普与共和党建制派的分裂及疫情防控的成效使得拜登支持率接近60%。\n其次，今年拜登的基建计划的落地过程将“一波三折”：1）通过“51：50”的简单多数绕开参议院共和党阻碍的“调和程序”在今年已经用完，最早需要等今年10月，也就是新的财年开始才能重启；2）考虑到一些民主党中间派参议员已明确表示“后续财政计划将和共和党立场保持一致”，也使得即便使用简单多数的“调和程序”，后续基建计划的落地过程将显著难于此前。\n这将对市场产生什么影响呢？徐驰认为，一方面，拜登基建计划“必然性”的前景将强化“再通胀”交易主线。如同过去百年“一党独大”时期全球资产价格表现规律所昭示的那样：美国实现“一党独大”后，行政效率提升，达利奥所言的所谓“第三种货币政策”（MP3）：财政货币化，即美联储扩表后资金直接进入实体经济的通路被激活。这将不断强化美国经济短期复苏预期及长期自然增长率回升，故原油、利率上行，而经济复苏与利率上行下，美股整体风险不大，仍呈震荡上行态势。\n需要注意的是，与国内市场普遍担忧的美联储扩表将带来美元指数快速贬值，并使得美联储面临“保美元”还是“保美股”的窘境，以致产生系统性风险所不同：从历史上看，若扩表后产生的资金能够进入实体经济，则尽管一方面，扩表将给美元带来贬值压力，但另一方面，经济复苏的前景又将为美元指数带来支撑。两种力量相互抵消后的结果，往往是美元指数温和小幅升值。\n另一方面，拜登基建计划落地过程的复杂性，又将使得债券新发规模后续上升速度放缓，这将使得美国实际利率上行斜率放缓，这也将减少系统性风险发生的可能性。因此，拜登基建计划前景的必然性与落地的复杂性下，结构切换而非系统性风险，将是后续美股及全球资本市场主线：经济复苏相关的道琼斯蓝筹取代高估值纳斯达克成为新的上涨动力；对于A股而言亦然，全球复苏预期强化下，市场或已接近调整底部区间，出口与低估值蓝筹将取代高估值DCF“抱团”成为新的市场主线。\n相比其他分析师的谨慎，中泰金融工程首席分析师唐军则偏乐观，他认为美国基建刺激计划和救助政策可能使疫情后的经济复苏和通胀超预期。\n他的理由是，与2008年金融危机后的政府主要救助大型金融机构和企业不同，这次新冠疫情后美国政府的救助政策主要是给居民直接发钱，这对疫情后的经济快速复苏更有利。在危机模式下，财政刺激的效果比货币宽松更加立竿见影，这是因为在极度悲观的预期下，即使货币宽松到极致（比如基准利率降到负数），金融机构仍不愿放贷，居民和企业也不愿意加杠杆和花钱，而财政刺激是政府直接加杠杆并把钱花出去，效果立竿见影。\n相对于救助大企业，财政直接给居民发钱对危机后的经济复苏和通胀上升作用更明显。因为直接给居民发钱的分配更公平，而低收入群体拿到钱后的消费倾向更高。观察美国的个人总收入与消费性支出的数据，可以看到在2008年金融危机后居民收入和支出都明显下滑，收入与支出之差也是减小的，后续恢复速度也比较慢。但这次新冠疫情后，受益于大额的救助补贴以及防疫措施下消费减少，美国居民的个人总收入总体是上升的，消费性支出却减少，两者之差大幅扩大，这意味着防疫放松后居民的消费意愿和能力都可能超预期。\n基建刺激计划落地的速度可能会比较慢，这是由美国的决策机制和效率决定的，但即使只有部分落地，叠加疫情后居民消费反弹的力度超预期，美国经济的复苏和通胀都可能超预期。\n李迅雷认为，美国通过MMT的方式来刺激经济，其实质是利用美元的国际地位向全世界征收“铸币税”，中国作为外汇储备最多和外贸顺差较大的国家，肯定为美国经济复苏作出很大“贡献”。而且，只要美元的国际地位没有根本动摇，美元不出现大幅度贬值，这种政府高杠杆和货币大放水的模式还将持续下去。传统的所谓财政赤字率3%警戒线理论早被轻易突破。\n如果这一屡试不爽的模式一直持续下去，其他国家也会效仿，则最终确实会导致全球债务高企和各大经济体货币“竞相贬值”的局面，从而使得全球性通胀蔓延——当然，这只是一种揣测，但从比特币的持续上涨的案例看，不难发现人们已经对货币泛滥非常担忧了，比特币暴涨不能类比当年荷兰的郁金香被爆炒，荷兰的郁金香是金本位制下的泡沫，故注定会破灭，而比特币恰恰是货币泡沫泛滥下成为“国际货币”，用以衡量全球货币泡沫化的程度。\n美债收益率上行空间及对中国的影响\n中泰固收分析师肖雨认为，短期内推动美债收益率上行的各种超预期因素已经充分释放，预计上升趋势不变但速度可能趋缓。基于此前提及的三因素分析框架，在美联储不上调政策利率或削减QE的前提下，维持年内10Y美债利率难以明显突破2%的判断。\n美联储现阶段不干预债市，并不代表不关心美债收益率持续飙升的影响。美债利率大幅上行会增加债务付息压力，不利于拜登政府1.9万亿美元财政刺激和后续大规模基建计划的实施。平衡通胀与就业双目标下，美国劳动力市场离完全恢复还有较大距离，美联储采取扭曲操作（OT）等手段压制长债利率的可能性上升。因此，下一个政策观察窗口或在1.8%-1.9%，一是由于疫情发生前美债收益率保持在这一水平，二是2011年9月美联储实施扭曲操作政策时收益率在1.9%左右。\n陈兴认为，美联储政策空间尚存。延期SLR豁免政策、扭曲操作（OT）和收益率曲线控制（YCC）都能够对美债收益率上行形成一定程度的约束，如果金融市场动荡引发的风险过大，美联储当前并非无计可施。\n至于对中国的影响，肖雨强调，在本轮经济和通胀逐渐复苏过程中，中国无论货币政策调整还是利率走势都明显领先美国。从短端利率看，DR007中枢已经从去年4月份1.5%的低点回升至2.2%附近，而美国联邦基金利率目标区间维持在0至0.25%之间。从长端利率看，我国10年期中债收益率也从2.48%上升至目前的3.25%左右，而10年期美债去年8月份才触底回升，目前也只有1.7%。因此，美债收益率上行以及未来可能出现的QE缩减、加息等政策调整，不会像2017年一样引发中国央行的跟随式加息，国内货币政策和利率走势仍将“以我为主”。\n唐军认为，美国国债利率和实际利率反映的通胀预期已经超过疫情前的水平，这有一定的合理性，因为疫情后消费反弹的力度可能超预期。但考虑到美国过去经历了较长时间的低利率环境，美国很多企业都将杠杆（资产负债率）加到了历史新高，很多负债融资都用于回购自己的股票，这虽然是股东利益（尤其是短期利益）最大化下的市场化行为，但高杠杆使得美国企业对低利率环境的高度依赖。因此，美债利率短期可能冲高，但中长期持续走高的概率不大。\n直观的来看，目前美国国债收益率已经回到疫情前水平，通胀预期已经超过疫情前水平，但纳斯达克100指数的PE仍高于疫情前接近50%（2019年PE约25倍，目前38倍左右）。疫情期间超低利率下以及避险情绪下被追捧的“核心资产”可能存在明显的估值回归常态的压力。\n唐军认为，中美利差仍在高位，美债利率上行对我国经济和股市的影响相对有限。美债利率这一波上行后，中美利差仍未回到疫情前水平，处在2012年以来（到2020年疫情之前）的历史高位。因此目前来看，中美利差缩小导致资金流出的压力是比较小的，美债利率上升对国内资本市场的实质影响相对有限，但在情绪上可能产生一些影响。由于春节前公募基金募集火爆的正反馈使得A股短期处于“超买”状态，市场本身需要调整消化，海外市场波动对市场情绪的影响仍可能引起A股较大的波动。\n李迅雷认为，美债利率上升更多是反映人们对经济复苏和通胀的双重预期，例如最近巴西加息75个基点，俄罗斯和挪威也在酝酿加息，这实际上就是这轮全球货币大放水后果的负效应，从而给经济复苏带来隐忧。而中国在这样一种背景下，要做到独善其身并不容易。资本市场是最能反映投资者共识的，为什么去年全球疫情如此严重的时候，资本市场反而乐观，而在疫情出现好转，疫苗在迅速推广的时候，却变得有点悲观了呢？核心问题的“药方”错了——治标不治本，因为放水只是缓解了流动性危机，只是让失业者的收入不出现大幅下降，但没有根本改变疫情前就存在的结构性问题。\n大放水会否酿成金融危机？\n中泰策略分析师王仕进认为，近期所有资产表现都不好，市场明显进入观望与对冲状态，整周都在围绕美债做交易，风格来回切换，这是各种因素交织导致的。\n首先从时间窗口来看，3月19日是美股四巫日，而3月22日美债、原油期货也面临交割，博弈属性增强，市场波动自然会放大。另外，月底美国银行系统的SLR豁免到期，最近一周一级交易商大幅削减美债头寸，接下来可能还有5000-6000亿美元的国债需要被卖出，而无论是美联储，还是美国银行监管部门，近期都未对此明确表态，随着时间临近，市场大都选择空美债、多美元的方式来应对可能的不确定性。 关于SLR，国会可能不会支持继续展期，3月FOMC会议，美联储承诺在未来几天就此发布声明，可能会有些技术性方案出来，比如最近把隔夜逆回购的对手限额从300亿美元提高至800亿美元，或许是在为债券市场可能出现的流动性问题做准备。技术上可能有3种缓解方式，不展期但修改SLR标准，扭曲操作卖短买长，收益率曲线控制。 基本面来看，从此前披露的数据来看，美国经济增长和通胀的状态是不错的，不好的地方是中国社融增速在下行，而欧洲因为疫情和疫苗问题再度增添干扰。另外是通胀预期继续在强化，美联储FOMC会议延续了允许通胀适度超调的说辞，如果严格按照去年修改的AIT规则来看，即便年内美国通胀水平达到3%，美联储可能仍然会倾向于采取容忍态度。 短期来看，目前仍然是通胀预期跑输名义利率的情形，但随着月底干扰逐渐定价结束，两者节奏可能会反过来，贵金属接下来应该会有所表现，而股票市场也会重新回归到经济正常化的逻辑上来。\n期指结构来看，A股和美股有所分化，沪深300期货贴水明显扩大，而标普500期货结构表现更淡定，显示A股市场对后市更为悲观，近期IC强，IF/IH弱的状态，也表明机构抱团股调仓加速，均线状态好的中小市值公司更受青睐。整体来看，他认为大部分短期干扰因素已被消化，后续市场无需过度担忧，目前最看好的方向是碳中和和一季报两条主线。\n中泰首席策略分析师陈龙认为，美国股市不会有大风险。从股市的决定因素出发去分析美股的问题，发现美股短期内大概率上不会出现大幅下跌。\n首先，回顾自美股互联网泡沫破灭之后美股的走势发现，以道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克指数为代表的美股基本上是一路上行的。首先，从指数的涨跌幅与美股上市公司基本面的情况。我们计算了皮尔森相关系数，数据显示，道琼斯指数与道琼斯成分股EPS相关性高达87%，纳斯达克指数与纳斯达克成分股EPS相关性高达86%。其次，从指数的涨跌幅与美股上市公司动态PE的角度看，道琼斯指数与其成分股动PE的相关性为60%，纳斯达克指数与其成分股动态PE的相关性为30%，两者相关性较成分股业绩要差。也就是说，美股的走势与美国上市公司业绩走势高度相关。之所以美股走出长牛格局，是与美国上市公司业绩长期走牛密切相关。\n其次，假设10Y美债收益率是美股的无风险收益率。我们仍然通过计算相关系数的方式考察美股动态PE与10Y美债收益率之间的关系。数据显示，道琼斯动态PE与10Y美债相关性为-24.5%，纳斯达克动态PE与10Y美债相关性-20%，但最近十年两者的相关性分别提升到了-40%左右。我们可以这样认为，美股的PE与无风险利率相关性非常弱，尽管美股估值与无风险利率负相关性在增强，但仍然属于弱相关性。相反与美股的市场风险偏好相关性较强。\n美国道琼斯指数的P/E与十年期国债收益率弱相关\n数据来源：WIND，中泰证券研究所\n第三，美股自互联网泡沫破灭后，只有三次比较大幅的调整主要出现在2008年次贷危机，2018年中美摩擦和2020年3月的新冠疫情。纵观成分股EPS，动态PE和10Y美债收益率，发现2008年次贷危机带来的美股下跌，与上市公司业绩、市场风险偏好都有关。而2018年中美摩擦与2020年3月新冠疫情带来的美股下跌，几乎完全可以用风险偏好来解释。\n第四，本轮美债收益率上行充分体现了美国经济复苏预期，美国财政刺激叠加货币宽松，基本面因素仍然对股市起到决定作用。因此，即使美债收益率上行带来市场风险偏好略有下降，但基本面改善将持续推动股市收益率上行，美股短期内大概率不会出现大的问题。\n李迅雷认为，全球应对疫情和各种经济方面的结症，都采取“无痛疗法”，以牺牲长期利益来弥补短期损失，在大数据时代，风险管控的水平和能力都大幅提升了。太多的逆周期导致无周期，危机虽然在可以预见的几年里都不会发生，但长期经济衰退的大趋势却在渐渐明朗。中国经济也像大家所预期的那样，从高增长回落至中速增长，从整体性上涨变为结构性上涨，从而进入到分化时代。但在全球经济体的角力中，中国的竞争力是在上升的，故应该乘势加大人民币国际化的力度和推进速度，否则就得承受美元“套利”的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"BND":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2515,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}