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alvinmok
2021-04-26

What's Next for the Fed: 'Still Hold'

美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":374509300,"tweetId":"374509300","gmtCreate":1619452306800,"gmtModify":1704724183494,"author":{"id":3569042653770498,"idStr":"3569042653770498","authorId":3569042653770498,"authorIdStr":"3569042653770498","name":"alvinmok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1babd58673ba23d27bb47a03ba4ac96","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>2</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>2</body></html>","text":"2","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374509300","repostId":2130392457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2130392457","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619419383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2130392457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What's Next for the Fed: 'Still Hold'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130392457","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但","content":"On April 28, US time (early morning of April 29, Beijing time), the Federal Reserve's April FOMC interest rate meeting is approaching. Before that, we might as well think about the current U.S. and international economic environment, as well as the \"pressure\" that the Federal Reserve is under. Although just over a month has passed since the interest rate meeting in March, the economic environment in the United States and the world has changed again during this period. There are four specific changes that may put greater pressure on the Fed, which remains accommodative.First, the economic data in March was significantly better than that in February, and the United States may be at the \"turning point\" of economic recovery.Up to now, key U.S. economic data for March (such as non-farm employment, PMI, retail sales, CPI/PPI, etc.) have been released, with significant month-on-month and year-on-year growth. The gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March is obvious. February was disturbed by extremely cold weather and the economic data was sluggish again. However, the data in March was generally optimistic, indicating that the road to economic recovery in the United States is back on track. Under the \"backdrop\" of the low base, it is inevitable that the market will have doubts about the \"too fast\" recovery of the US economy. Powell said in an interview with CBS on April 11 that the U.S. economy is at an \"inflection point\". \"We feel that we are at a stage where economic growth will be greatly accelerated and employment opportunities will be greatly increased.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3409f4db5d718187c19b464958503b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Second, international commodity prices have strengthened since March, once again exacerbating inflationary pressures.Recently, commodity prices have continued to rise. For example, since March, the prices of Lun copper and Lun aluminum have reached a \"level\" compared with February, while since April, the prices of basic commodities such as food and wood have increased more obviously, which are relatively related to the prices of mass consumer goods. direct correlation. At the micro level, the media reported in the past week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Retailer giants are planning to raise prices, and the transmission of raw material prices to end consumer goods prices has been confirmed.In this context, the public's judgment on U.S. inflation is easily divided: whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will continue objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price increases may be long-term. In the past week, the media published Powell's letter to senators on April 8. In the letter, he stated that inflation would not be allowed to exceed 2% significantly, nor would he allow inflation to exceed 2% for a long time. His remarks seemed to be a little more about inflation. Cautious, a little less \"calm\" than before.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763590e0d0b48e730b789da1ca2653a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Third, the recent downturn in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index has created more room for policy shift.Before the interest rate meeting in March, the 10-year US Treasury yields suddenly rose and triggered a shock adjustment in the stock market. At that time, the market was still expecting the Federal Reserve to rescue the market through Operation Twist (OT), or at least announce the extension of SLR. However, since April, both US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index have shown a downward trend, and the stock market has performed strongly. On the contrary, at the micro level, cryptocurrencies have become \"popular\" recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Events such as being dragged down by hedge fund liquidation may reflect that financial risks may be heating up. In any case, the constraints on the Fed's policy shift at this stage are at least less than last month.Fourth, the central banks of other countries have been more active in policy shifting recently, which may create some \"peer pressure\".From March 17 to 19, the central banks of Brazil, Turkey and Russia have \"made the forefront\" of the global rate hike. On April 21, the Bank of Canada announced that it would begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases, and its expectations for the timing of the rate hike were advanced from 2023 to the second half of 2022.On April 23, the Russian Central Bank continued its rate hike of 50bp to 5%, and its rate hike exceeded expectations by 25bp. The roadmap of the European Central Bank's policy shift is clearer than that of the Federal Reserve, which clearly stated that the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) may last until the end of March 2022. In fact, the United States leads the world in vaccine promotion, and the momentum of economic recovery is no weaker than that of other economies. The Federal Reserve is more moderate than its \"peers\", or it may easily arouse doubts.However, considering all things considered, we believe that there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will still choose to \"stand still\" (not discuss cutting QE) at its April interest rate meeting.First of all, the economic data in March has a good momentum, but the absolute value may still not be enough to support the policy shift.In terms of employment, there is still a big gap between the unemployment rate in March (6%) and before the epidemic (3.5%); Compared with before the epidemic (about 152 million), the total number of non-agricultural employment (about 144 million) still has a gap of 8 million; The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP employment) gap in March was approximately 9 million people; In the past week, the number of initial jobless claims and renewal claims are still 2.5 times and 2 times the pre-epidemic level, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af569b7f374b046e9e45f10c58290353\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Secondly, the recent global epidemic counterattack may add variables to the economic recovery of the United States.The epidemic in Europe rose in late March, and many countries spent Easter in blockade; Since April, especially in the past two weeks, the epidemic in Asia has counterattacked, and large economies such as India and Japan have been more obviously impacted. The global economic recovery process may be slowed down again, and the United States may not be immune to it.At the same time, the Federal Reserve has recently expressed concern about the risk of the epidemic.Powell expressed concern about global vaccination asynchronization at the IMF spring meeting on April 8; In an interview on April 11, he said that the resurgence of the epidemic is the main risk to the prospects for economic recovery. Against the background of repeated global epidemics, the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum remains uncertain, and the Fed's confidence may be limited.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3158e71af7cd373cc5402a8aaa1849fa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, judging from the recent signals released by the Federal Reserve, it is not time to discuss reducing QE.Drawing on Bernanke's experience in 2013, Powell has repeatedly stated that a lot of signals will be released before cutting QE, but the recent signals are very limited (only Dallas Fed Kaplan made \"hawkish\" remarks on April 8). St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%.According to our calculations, it will take after July for 75% of the population in the United States to be vaccinated. In addition, it is worth noting that the frequency of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings will be high in the coming period, with three meetings in April, June and July respectively. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will begin to discuss tapering QE at its interest rate meeting in June or July, or a more reasonable option.","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next for the Fed: 'Still Hold'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next for the Fed: 'Still Hold'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n钟正生经济分析2021-04-26 14:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOn April 28, US time (early morning of April 29, Beijing time), the Federal Reserve's April FOMC interest rate meeting is approaching. Before that, we might as well think about the current U.S. and international economic environment, as well as the \"pressure\" that the Federal Reserve is under. Although just over a month has passed since the interest rate meeting in March, the economic environment in the United States and the world has changed again during this period. There are four specific changes that may put greater pressure on the Fed, which remains accommodative.First, the economic data in March was significantly better than that in February, and the United States may be at the \"turning point\" of economic recovery.Up to now, key U.S. economic data for March (such as non-farm employment, PMI, retail sales, CPI/PPI, etc.) have been released, with significant month-on-month and year-on-year growth. The gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March is obvious. February was disturbed by extremely cold weather and the economic data was sluggish again. However, the data in March was generally optimistic, indicating that the road to economic recovery in the United States is back on track. Under the \"backdrop\" of the low base, it is inevitable that the market will have doubts about the \"too fast\" recovery of the US economy. Powell said in an interview with CBS on April 11 that the U.S. economy is at an \"inflection point\". \"We feel that we are at a stage where economic growth will be greatly accelerated and employment opportunities will be greatly increased.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3409f4db5d718187c19b464958503b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Second, international commodity prices have strengthened since March, once again exacerbating inflationary pressures.Recently, commodity prices have continued to rise. For example, since March, the prices of Lun copper and Lun aluminum have reached a \"level\" compared with February, while since April, the prices of basic commodities such as food and wood have increased more obviously, which are relatively related to the prices of mass consumer goods. direct correlation. At the micro level, the media reported in the past week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Retailer giants are planning to raise prices, and the transmission of raw material prices to end consumer goods prices has been confirmed.In this context, the public's judgment on U.S. inflation is easily divided: whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will continue objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price increases may be long-term. In the past week, the media published Powell's letter to senators on April 8. In the letter, he stated that inflation would not be allowed to exceed 2% significantly, nor would he allow inflation to exceed 2% for a long time. His remarks seemed to be a little more about inflation. Cautious, a little less \"calm\" than before.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763590e0d0b48e730b789da1ca2653a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Third, the recent downturn in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index has created more room for policy shift.Before the interest rate meeting in March, the 10-year US Treasury yields suddenly rose and triggered a shock adjustment in the stock market. At that time, the market was still expecting the Federal Reserve to rescue the market through Operation Twist (OT), or at least announce the extension of SLR. However, since April, both US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index have shown a downward trend, and the stock market has performed strongly. On the contrary, at the micro level, cryptocurrencies have become \"popular\" recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Events such as being dragged down by hedge fund liquidation may reflect that financial risks may be heating up. In any case, the constraints on the Fed's policy shift at this stage are at least less than last month.Fourth, the central banks of other countries have been more active in policy shifting recently, which may create some \"peer pressure\".From March 17 to 19, the central banks of Brazil, Turkey and Russia have \"made the forefront\" of the global rate hike. On April 21, the Bank of Canada announced that it would begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases, and its expectations for the timing of the rate hike were advanced from 2023 to the second half of 2022.On April 23, the Russian Central Bank continued its rate hike of 50bp to 5%, and its rate hike exceeded expectations by 25bp. The roadmap of the European Central Bank's policy shift is clearer than that of the Federal Reserve, which clearly stated that the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) may last until the end of March 2022. In fact, the United States leads the world in vaccine promotion, and the momentum of economic recovery is no weaker than that of other economies. The Federal Reserve is more moderate than its \"peers\", or it may easily arouse doubts.However, considering all things considered, we believe that there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will still choose to \"stand still\" (not discuss cutting QE) at its April interest rate meeting.First of all, the economic data in March has a good momentum, but the absolute value may still not be enough to support the policy shift.In terms of employment, there is still a big gap between the unemployment rate in March (6%) and before the epidemic (3.5%); Compared with before the epidemic (about 152 million), the total number of non-agricultural employment (about 144 million) still has a gap of 8 million; The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP employment) gap in March was approximately 9 million people; In the past week, the number of initial jobless claims and renewal claims are still 2.5 times and 2 times the pre-epidemic level, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af569b7f374b046e9e45f10c58290353\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Secondly, the recent global epidemic counterattack may add variables to the economic recovery of the United States.The epidemic in Europe rose in late March, and many countries spent Easter in blockade; Since April, especially in the past two weeks, the epidemic in Asia has counterattacked, and large economies such as India and Japan have been more obviously impacted. The global economic recovery process may be slowed down again, and the United States may not be immune to it.At the same time, the Federal Reserve has recently expressed concern about the risk of the epidemic.Powell expressed concern about global vaccination asynchronization at the IMF spring meeting on April 8; In an interview on April 11, he said that the resurgence of the epidemic is the main risk to the prospects for economic recovery. Against the background of repeated global epidemics, the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum remains uncertain, and the Fed's confidence may be limited.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3158e71af7cd373cc5402a8aaa1849fa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, judging from the recent signals released by the Federal Reserve, it is not time to discuss reducing QE.Drawing on Bernanke's experience in 2013, Powell has repeatedly stated that a lot of signals will be released before cutting QE, but the recent signals are very limited (only Dallas Fed Kaplan made \"hawkish\" remarks on April 8). St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%.According to our calculations, it will take after July for 75% of the population in the United States to be vaccinated. In addition, it is worth noting that the frequency of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings will be high in the coming period, with three meetings in April, June and July respectively. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will begin to discuss tapering QE at its interest rate meeting in June or July, or a more reasonable option.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457533.html\">钟正生经济分析</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693d25b42fff03130f622d16b946b810","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457533.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130392457","content_text":"美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但期间美国与全球经济环境又生变化。具体有四方面变化，可能使维持宽松的美联储承受更大压力。\n一是，3月经济数据显著好于2月，美国或位于经济复苏的“转折点”。截至目前，美国3月重点经济数据(如非农就业、PMI、零售销售、CPI/PPI等)均已公布，环比和同比均显著增长。美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显，2月受极寒天气扰动、经济数据再度低迷，而3月数据普遍乐观，表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。而在低基数的“衬托”下，还难免让市场产生对美国经济恢复“过快”的怀疑。4月11日鲍威尔在CBS采访中表示，美国经济正处于一个“拐点”(inflection point)，“我们感觉我们正处在一个经济增长速度将大大加快、就业机会将大大增加的阶段。”\n\n二是，3月以来国际大宗商品价格走强，再度加剧通胀压力。近期大宗商品价格继续走高，例如3月以来伦铜和伦铝的价格比2月上了一个“台阶”，而4月以来食品、木材等基础商品涨价更明显，它们与大众消费品价格有较为直接的关联。微观层面，近一周媒体报道了宝洁、可口可乐等零售商巨头正在酝酿涨价，原料价格向终端消费品价格的传导得以印证。\n在此背景下，大众对美国通胀的判断容易陷入分歧：是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者(由于“价格粘性”)物价上涨可能具有长期性。近一周媒体公布了鲍威尔在4月8日致参议员的信件，信中表示，不会允许通胀大幅超过2%，也不会允许通胀长时间超过2%，其言论似乎对通胀多了几分谨慎、少了几分此前的“淡定”。\n\n三是，近期美债利率和美元指数下行，为政策转向创造了更大空间。3月议息会议前，10年美债利率骤然攀升并引发股市震荡调整，当时市场还在期待美联储通过扭曲操作(OT)来救市，或至少宣布SLR延期。但4月以来，美债利率和美元指数均呈现下行走势，股市表现强劲。反而微观层面上，近期加密货币“大行其道”、瑞银受对冲基金爆仓拖累等事件，或反映出金融风险可能正在升温。无论如何，现阶段美联储政策转向所受束缚，至少比上月要小。\n四是，他国央行近期在政策转向上更积极，可能制造一些“同辈压力”。3月17-19日巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯央行已为全球加息“打前站”。4月21日加拿大央行宣布开始缩减资产购买规模，且对加息时点的预期从2023年提前到2022年下半年。\n4月23日俄罗斯央行继续加息50bp至5%，加息幅度超预期的25bp。欧洲央行政策转向的路线图比美联储更清晰，其明确表示紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)或持续至2022年3月底。事实上，美国疫苗推广领跑全球，经济复苏的势头不比其他经济体弱，美联储比“同行”们更加温和，或容易引起质疑。\n不过综合考虑，我们认为，美联储4月议息会议大概率仍会选择“按兵不动”(不讨论削减QE)。\n首先，3月经济数据发展势头不错、但绝对值或仍不足以支撑政策转向。就业方面，3月失业率(6%)与疫情前(3.5%)仍有较大差距;非农就业总人数(约14400万人)与疫情前(约15200万人)相比，仍有800万人的缺口;3月“小非农”(ADP就业)缺口约为900万人;近一周初请失业金人数和续请人数，分别仍为疫情前水平的2.5倍和2倍。\n\n其次，近期全球疫情反扑，或为美国经济复苏再添变数。3月下旬欧洲疫情抬头，多国在封锁中度过复活节;4月以来、尤其近两周，亚洲地区疫情反扑，印度、日本等大型经济体受到更明显的冲击，全球经济复苏进程可能又被拖缓，美国或难独善其身。\n同时，美联储近期也表达出对疫情风险的关注。鲍威尔在4月8日的IMF春季会议上表达对全球疫苗接种不同步的担忧;其在4月11日的采访中表示疫情重现是经济复苏前景面临的主要风险。在全球疫情反复的背景下，经济复苏势头的可持续性仍存变数，美联储的信心可能受限。\n\n最后，从美联储近期释放的信号看，讨论缩减QE时点未至。吸取了2013年伯南克的经验，鲍威尔多次表示削减QE前将释放大量信号，但近期的信号十分有限(仅达拉斯联储卡普兰在4月8日发表了“鹰派”言论)。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。\n根据我们的测算，美国实现75%人群接种需要到7月以后。此外，值得注意的是，未来一段时间美联储议息会议的频率较高，4月、6月和7月分别有三次会议。因此，美联储在6月或7月议息会议开始讨论缩减QE，或是更合理的选择。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}