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杨胜胜
2021-04-27

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There are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless

在拜登即将揭晓大规模增税计划之际，经济学家兼基金经理丹尼尔·拉考（Daniel Lacalle）却表示，拜登宣布对企业和富人大规模增税根本没有意义。他认为，增税将对经济增长、投资和就业创造产生影响，

There are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless

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The Biden administration should use all its tools to support economic growth if it solves the rising deficit problem.</p><p>Lacalle shows why raising taxes makes no sense in three ways:</p><p>First, the impact on real income is negligible.</p><p>In 2018, the U.S. federal capital gains tax revenue was $158.4 billion. 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Many people believe that the effective tax rate for businesses is lower, while in other countries businesses are also subject to VAT.</p><p>The average effective tax rate for U.S. companies is 36.5%, compared with 21.1% for EU companies, according to the European Commission.</p><p>When comparing real interest rates, many American analysts are playing some tricks, either adding loss-making companies to calculate together, or averaging the tax rates of technology giants with those of other industries.</p><p>It is clear that tax increases will increase the risk of capital outflows from the United States to other countries with more competitive taxes. These tax increases may have little impact on multinational companies, but they have had a particularly negative impact on medium-sized enterprises. This is why these measures are regressive.</p><p>Even Yellen knows that this tax increase is harmful, which is why she wants a global tax. If she didn't see the downside, she'd let other countries manage their taxes as they wanted.</p><p>Finally, the problem of mandatory spending (that is, the deficit problem) remains unsolved.</p><p>Mandatory spending in the United States has surged from $1.8 trillion in 2008 to $2.9 trillion in 2020, and is expected to increase by another $1 trillion over the next 10 years. The main reason for the U.S. deficit is the increase in mandatory spending, because revenues can't match the increase in spending that the government can't control.</p><p>When the spending side is growing faster than economic output and income, even in times of economic expansion, it is impossible to reduce the deficit by raising taxes.</p><p>No matter in any economic cycle, the fiscal revenue brought by tax increases can hardly cover the annual expenditure growth of more than 200 billion dollars and the deficit of more than one trillion dollars.</p><p>So why is Biden doing this?</p><p>Lacalle believes that Biden is trying to please his party and voters, and is not worried about what negative impact this will have on the economy. They just want to stop the rich from getting richer.</p><p>He said Biden's plan to raise taxes doesn't make sense from a growth, revenue or deficit perspective. And it makes no sense from the perspective of the interests of the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Because it simply doesn't make sense, and it doesn't solve America's main problem: ballooning mandatory spending.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-27 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Just as Biden is about to unveil his plan for massive tax increases, economist and fund manager Daniel Lacalle said that Biden's announcement of massive tax increases on corporations and the wealthy simply makes no sense.</p><p>He believes that tax increases will have an impact on economic growth, investment and job creation, but they will not solve the structural deficit problem, and the impact on debt and deficit is almost negligible.</p><p>Such a massive tax rate hike is unjustified either from an income perspective or from a growth target perspective. The Biden administration should use all its tools to support economic growth if it solves the rising deficit problem.</p><p>Lacalle shows why raising taxes makes no sense in three ways:</p><p>First, the impact on real income is negligible.</p><p>In 2018, the U.S. federal capital gains tax revenue was $158.4 billion. Princeton University estimates that every 5 percentage point increase in the current tax system would provide an additional $18 billion to $30 billion in tax revenue under an optimistic scenario of not being negatively impacted by tax increases.</p><p>According to optimistic expectations for growth in corporate and personal income tax revenues, corporate income tax rate increases will increase taxes by $691 billion, while so-called \"abolishing tax loopholes,\" ending fossil fuel tax breaks and anti-tax inversion measures will increase revenues by $271 billion.</p><p>Of course, the above is only an optimistic estimate, provided that the tax increase will not have any negative impact on the economy and GDP growth will not be affected in any way, but the actual situation cannot be so idealistic.</p><p>Second, the negative impact of tax increases will exceed the Biden administration's expectations.</p><p>These tax increases don't just affect the \"rich\". Such a high capital gains tax would stifle innovation and reduce flows into private equity, which is essential to driving start-ups and new high-productivity businesses.</p><p>This is why Europe has lowered or even eliminated capital gains taxes. Belgium, Luxembourg and Switzerland all have no capital gains tax. Among the countries that impose capital gains tax, Greece and Hungary have the lowest tax rate at 15%. The average for European countries is 19.3%.</p><p>The same goes for corporate tax rates. Under Biden's plan, the U.S. would have the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD (28%). Many people believe that the effective tax rate for businesses is lower, while in other countries businesses are also subject to VAT.</p><p>The average effective tax rate for U.S. companies is 36.5%, compared with 21.1% for EU companies, according to the European Commission.</p><p>When comparing real interest rates, many American analysts are playing some tricks, either adding loss-making companies to calculate together, or averaging the tax rates of technology giants with those of other industries.</p><p>It is clear that tax increases will increase the risk of capital outflows from the United States to other countries with more competitive taxes. These tax increases may have little impact on multinational companies, but they have had a particularly negative impact on medium-sized enterprises. This is why these measures are regressive.</p><p>Even Yellen knows that this tax increase is harmful, which is why she wants a global tax. If she didn't see the downside, she'd let other countries manage their taxes as they wanted.</p><p>Finally, the problem of mandatory spending (that is, the deficit problem) remains unsolved.</p><p>Mandatory spending in the United States has surged from $1.8 trillion in 2008 to $2.9 trillion in 2020, and is expected to increase by another $1 trillion over the next 10 years. The main reason for the U.S. deficit is the increase in mandatory spending, because revenues can't match the increase in spending that the government can't control.</p><p>When the spending side is growing faster than economic output and income, even in times of economic expansion, it is impossible to reduce the deficit by raising taxes.</p><p>No matter in any economic cycle, the fiscal revenue brought by tax increases can hardly cover the annual expenditure growth of more than 200 billion dollars and the deficit of more than one trillion dollars.</p><p>So why is Biden doing this?</p><p>Lacalle believes that Biden is trying to please his party and voters, and is not worried about what negative impact this will have on the economy. They just want to stop the rich from getting richer.</p><p>He said Biden's plan to raise taxes doesn't make sense from a growth, revenue or deficit perspective. And it makes no sense from the perspective of the interests of the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Because it simply doesn't make sense, and it doesn't solve America's main problem: ballooning mandatory spending.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-04-27/doc-ikmxzfmk9226419.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1f2064b1def89283b4efa9b8ac4586","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-04-27/doc-ikmxzfmk9226419.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130475313","content_text":"在拜登即将揭晓大规模增税计划之际，经济学家兼基金经理丹尼尔·拉考（Daniel Lacalle）却表示，拜登宣布对企业和富人大规模增税根本没有意义。\n他认为，增税将对经济增长、投资和就业创造产生影响，但却并不能解决结构性的赤字问题，对债务和赤字的影响几乎可以忽略不计。\n无论是从收入角度还是从增长目标来看，如此大规模的税率上调都是毫无道理的。如果经济增长能解决不断上升的赤字问题，拜登政府就应该使用所有工具来支持经济增长。\nLacalle从三个方面说明了为什么增税毫无意义：\n首先，对实际收入的影响可以忽略不计。\n2018年，美国联邦资本利得税收入为1584亿美元。据普林斯顿大学（Princeton University）估计，在不受增税负面影响的乐观情况下，现行税收制度每提高5个百分点，将额外提供180亿至300亿美元的税收。\n根据对企业和个人所得税收入增长的乐观预期，企业所得税税率提高将增加6910亿美元税收，而所谓的“废除税收漏洞”、终止化石燃料税收减免和反税收倒置措施将增加2710亿美元收入。\n当然，以上只是乐观估计，前提是增税不会对经济产生任何负面影响，GDP增长也不会受到任何影响，但实际情况不可能如此理想化。\n其次，增税的负面影响将超过拜登政府的预期。\n这些增税并不只会影响“富人”。如此高的资本利得税会扼杀创新，减少流入私人股本的资金，而私人股本对于推动初创企业和新的高生产率企业至关重要。\n这就是欧洲降低甚至取消资本利得税的原因。比利时，卢森堡，瑞士都没有资本利得税。在征收资本利得税的国家中，希腊和匈牙利的税率最低，为15%。欧洲国家的平均水平是19.3%。\n企业税率也是如此。根据拜登的计划，美国将拥有经合组织中最高的企业税率（28%）。许多人认为，企业的实际税率更低，而在其他国家，企业还需要缴纳增值税。\n欧盟委员会的数据显示，美国公司的实际平均税率为36.5%，而欧盟公司的平均税率为21.1%。\n在比较实际利率时，很多美国的分析都在耍些小把戏，要么把亏损的公司加进去一起计算，要么把科技巨头的税率与其他行业的进行平均。\n增税将增加资本从美国外流到其他税收更有竞争力的国家的风险，这是显而易见的。这些增税措施可能对跨国公司影响不大，但却对中型企业产生了特别大的负面影响。这就是为什么这些措施是倒退的。\n就连耶伦也知道这种增税是有害的，这就是她想要全球征税的原因。如果她没有看到负面影响，她会让其他国家按照他们的意愿管理他们的税收。\n最后，强制性支出的问题（也就是赤字问题）依然没有得到解决。\n美国的强制支出已从2008年的1.8万亿美元激增至2020年的2.9万亿美元，预计未来10年还会再增加1万亿美元。美国赤字的主要原因是强制性支出的增加，因为收入无法与政府控制不了的支出增长相匹配。\n当支出方面的增长速度超过经济产出和收入时，即使是在经济扩张时期，也不可能通过增税来削减赤字。\n不管在任何经济周期中，增税带来的财政收入，都难以覆盖每年逾2000亿美元的支出增长，以及超过一万亿美元的赤字。\n那么拜登为什么要这么做呢？\nLacalle认为，拜登是为了取悦他的政党和选民，并不担心这会对经济产生什么负面影响，他们只是想阻止富人变得更富。\n他表示，从增长、收入或赤字的角度来看，拜登的增税计划没有意义。而且无论从共和党还是民主党的利益角度来看，也都没有意义。因为这根本不合情理，也没有解决美国最主要的问题：不断膨胀的强制性支出。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1388,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}